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International News International news pertinent to international economics is added here, together with several major newspapers and news magazines. The articles, in general, are held for a month on this main page. You can also access the older archived news articles, with the caveat that there is no guarantee that the links remain live. Current news on international financial markets can be found here. Note: Links to the New York Times require a free registration.

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The perils of a strong US dollar Financial Times Subscription Required
Edward Luce (FT) Feb 1, 2015
The bad news is the US recovery is based on the familiar model of rising consumption.

Capitalism has broken free of democracy Financial Times Subscription Required
Slavoj Zizek (FT) Feb 1, 2015
Economic models have proved more portable than political ideas.

Markets can get too much information Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Augar (FT) Feb 1, 2015
Management quality not quarterly reporting requirements drives value-creating behaviour.

UK must hold Russian elite to account Financial Times Subscription Required
Anne Applebaum (FT) Feb 1, 2015
Litvinenko’s murder has been treated as a spy story — but it is terrorism.

A Smarter Way to Tax Big Banks Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mark Roe and Michael Troge (WSJ) Feb 1, 2015
Make the cost of equity tax-deductible in the same way that the cost of debt is deductible.

Putin’s Ruble Gamble Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Feb 1, 2015
The Kremlin cuts rates despite currency and inflation risks.

Currency War Claims Another Casualty: Denmark
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Feb 1, 2015
Denmark is the latest casualty in the currency wars. I've seen this movie before; it never ends well.

An Unconventional Truth
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Feb 1, 2015
To be effective, monetary stimulus must be accompanied by temporary fiscal stimulus, which is now lacking in all major economies. That is why, given persistent insufficient aggregate demand, unconventional monetary policies will remain a central feature of the macroeconomic landscape.

China's global influence won't be determined by the size of its economy
Alexander van Kemenade (SCMP) Feb 2, 2015
History shows that advantages in finance and technology matter more.

Greece Advances a Good Idea: Indexing Its Debt Repayments to Economic Growth
Paolo Mauro (PIIE) Feb 2, 2015
In renegotiating its aid package with the newly elected government of Greece, European governments and institutions should stand firm on demanding fiscal sustainability and reforms. But that does not mean they should reject good ideas put forward by Athens.

Dangerous cracks at Europe’s centre Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Feb 2, 2015
Comparisons are being made with the economic depression and unstable politics of the 1930s.

Weaker trade is EM’s demon in disguise Financial Times Subscription Required
Bhanu Baweja (FT) Feb 2, 2015
Link between global growth and global trade seems to be loosening.

Greece Plays Colonel Blotto With Europe
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Feb 2, 2015
How "Colonel Blotto" and other ideas from game theory explain the country's new approach.

January’s Market Volatility: Blip or Omen?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Feb 2, 2015
For the rough ride, investors can blame the large and persistent deviations among systemically important countries when it comes to economic performance and monetary policy prospects.

Europe Should Call Greece's Bluff
Guy Hands (Bloomberg View) Feb 2, 2015
Giving in to Athens's demands would create a Greek tragedy likely to engulf all of Europe.

Maintaining Growth in India
Raghuram Rajan (Project Syndicate) Feb 2, 2015
Global economic stagnation is no reason for India to lower its ambitions, though maintaining the growth it needs will require the country to rethink its economic approach. That means looking to regional and domestic demand, strengthening the country's macroeconomic institutions, and taking up the fight for an open global system.

What Is Plan B for Greece?
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Feb 2, 2015
Though the far-left Syriza party’s recent election victory has sent Greek equities and bonds plummeting, there is little sign of contagion to other distressed countries on the eurozone periphery. The question is how long this relative calm will prevail.

Cancer Care for the Developing World
Lawrence N. Shulman (Project Syndicate) Feb 2, 2015
Over the last 40 years, steady progress has been made in the use of chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation to treat and cure cancer patients. But access to these life-saving advances remains elusive in low- and middle-income countries, where the majority of cancer patients reside today.

Renaissance in American Manufacturing? Not So Fast
Robert D. Atkinson (Globalist) Feb 2, 2015
Optimistic statistics on American manufacturing distract from the less optimistic truth.

Groundhog Day in Greece
Thorsten Beck (VoxEU) Feb 2, 2015
The Greek-Troika conflict is roiling markets, boardrooms and cabinet offices around the world. Crises are best solved by recognising losses, allocating them and moving on, so the biggest risk, this column argues, is that a compromise kicks the can further down the road. As the can rolls on, the scenery becomes politically and socially less attractive – fuelling the rise of political animosities, nationalism, and fringe parties. Greece is a special case but indicative of the core problem – deficient EZ governance structures that mean societies are stuck with increasing socioeconomic exclusion and political despair. The crisis will continue until the necessary further deepening of EZ institutional structures is completed.

Real effects of credit rating downgrades
Philippe Karam, Ouarda Merrouche, Moez Souissi and Rima Turk (VoxEU) Feb 2, 2015
In the wake of the Crisis, policymakers have introduced liquidity regulation to promote the resilience of banks and lower the social cost of crisis management. This column shows that a funding liquidity shock, manifested as lower access to wholesale sources of funding following a credit rating downgrade, translates into a significant decline in both domestic and foreign lending. Liquidity self-insurance by banks mitigates the impact of a credit rating downgrade on lending.

The New Asian Order Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Evan A. Feigenbaum (FA) Feb 2, 2015
And how the United States fits in.

A deal to bring modernity to Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Feb 3, 2015
The EU is supposed to be a union of democracies, not an empire. It should negotiate in good faith.

Fears over EU-US trade deal well grounded Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) Feb 3, 2015
In the past decade large, mostly American, companies have claimed rights under ISDS.

China finds opportunities in cheap oil Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Feb 3, 2015
Taxes rise along with storage capacity to reduce vulnerability to price swings in volatile energy market.

Greece deserves a ‘new deal’
Katrina vanden Heuvel (WP) Feb 3, 2015
The time has come for Europe to move beyond crippling austerity measures in.

Greece Needs Growth, But How?
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Feb 3, 2015
Austerity was already over when Syriza got elected. Will the new government pursue real reforms to get the country growing?

Economic Interests Attract China to Russia, Not Edgy Policies
Wang Yiwei (YaleGlobal) Feb 3, 2015
China pursues a non-alliance policy, in no way obliged to follow Russia on confrontation with the West.

Switzerland Rejoins Currency Wars
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Feb 3, 2015
Two weeks after Switzerland stunned currency traders by abandoning the franc's peg to the euro, the central bank is quietly back in the market.

Greece's Debt Plan Is a Hidden Haircut
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Feb 3, 2015
The Greek government's proposal calls on the ECB to write off 27 billion euros in debt.

Man Wants Bonds to Be More Complicated
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Feb 3, 2015
A lot of financial magic is just, put a thing in a box, put another thing in the same box, sell bits of the box.

Investing in Immigrant Europe
Giles Merritt (Project Syndicate) Feb 3, 2015
The attacks in Paris last month unleashed a welter of opinion about how to prevent further violence – whether by jihadist terrorists or against Muslim communities. But the focus of that debate risks eclipsing the much wider question of whether Europe has sown the seeds of disaffection through neglect of its immigrants.

A Greek Morality Tale
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Feb 3, 2015
When the euro crisis began a half-decade ago, Keynesian economists predicted that the austerity imposed on Greece and the other crisis countries would fail. Now that it has, what is needed is not structural reform in Greece so much as a fundamental reform of the eurozone's design and policy frameworks.

The Fog of Disorder
Wolfgang Ischinger and Adrian Oroz (Project Syndicate) Feb 3, 2015
As the international order becomes harder to manage, traditional and potential leaders increasingly consider the challenge too great, further fueling unpredictability and instability. It was at this intersection of test and trepidation that today’s vicious circle of geopolitical turmoil was set in motion.

Big oil is not the biggest victim of cheap crude Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gasper (FT) Feb 4, 2015
Countries not companies are paying the price for the industry’s crisis.

Greece owes a debt to Spain Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrés Ortega (FT) Feb 4, 2015
Athens brinkmanship could drive a wedge between the north and south of EU.

Corporate China not ready to take over Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Feb 4, 2015
Regulation and suspicion harm companies’ efforts to break into foreign markets.

Why S&P 500 can reach 3,000 by 2020 Financial Times Subscription Required
Dominic Rossi (FT) Feb 4, 2015
In a world of income scarcity, US shares provide dividend growth.

Greece is part of global debt challenge Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Feb 4, 2015
Proposals from McKinsey may not appeal much to Germany though.

Greece’s Partial Reality Check Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Feb 4, 2015
Athens needs to focus on supply-side reform before debt restructuring.

The ECB Fears Deflation, But You Should Not
Frank Shostak (Mises Daily) Feb 4, 2015
The European Central Bank (ECB) is planning to pump 1.1 trillion euros into the banking system to fend off price deflation and revive economic activity. The ECB president and his executive board are planning to spend 60 billion euros per month from March 2015 to September 2016.

Pan-African Banks Expansion Could Boost Systemic Risks
IMF Survey Feb 4, 2015
Rapid expansion of cross-border banking in Africa in recent years poses oversight challenges that, if unaddressed, may increase systemic risks, IMF staff say. A recent report adds that pan-African banks are now more important than the continent’s long-established European and American banks.

Fiscal Policy in the Era of Stagnation
Paolo Mauro (PIIE) Feb 4, 2015
A fervent debate continues to rage over the hypothesis that the United States and other countries are in the grip of "secular stagnation," and cannot expect that robust economic growth will return anytime soon. At the latest American Economic Association meetings in January, the discussion focused on policies to prevent stagnation or at least to alleviate it. A commonly cited prescription is to boost public spending in an effort to help economic growth recover.

Brazil Dries Up and Blacks Out
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Feb 4, 2015
Water is to Brazilian politicians what oil is to petrocrats -- just a pipeline away, too abundant to fret over. Except when it's not.

Piketty Diagnoses Japan's Sick Economy
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Feb 4, 2015
Abenomics may be great for corporate Japan, but the people are still waiting for any benefit. The economist Thomas Piketty has a solution.

Will the Next Recession Destroy Europe?
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Feb 4, 2015
If the EU can't handle Greece, how will it weather another recession?

Russian Ruble's Hapless Little Brother
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Feb 4, 2015
Belarus's ruble is the world's worst-performing currency because of its perpetual currency war with Russia.

Unraveling a Greek Drama
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Feb 4, 2015
Why markets should expect more turbulence from Greece.

China’s G-20 Moment
Yu Yongding and Domenico Lombardi (Project Syndicate) Feb 4, 2015
Next year, China will take a turn as host of the G-20. Chinese President Xi Jinping did not miss the opportunity to advance the goal of an Asia-Pacific trade agreement while hosting last year’s APEC summit, and he certainly will not pass up the chance to ensure that the G-20 agenda serves China’s interests.

Innovate or Stagnate
Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum (Project Syndicate) Feb 4, 2015
Companies, like people, start life small and eager to survive, fueled by youthful energy and fresh ideas, before eventually fading into obscurity. The same is true of governments: They, too, can lose the hunger and ambition of youth and allow themselves to become complacent.

Two Cheers for the New Normal
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Feb 4, 2015
According to conventional wisdom, global economic conditions are bleak, with developed countries stagnating and emerging economies beginning to flounder. But, though global growth has slowed since this century's heady first years, by recent historical standards, the last four years look relatively good.

The illusion of monetary policy independence under flexible exchange rates
Sebastian Edwards (VoxEU) Feb 4, 2015
The conventional ‘trilemma’ view is that countries that allow free capital flows can still pursue independent monetary policies as long as they allow flexible exchange rates. This column examines the pass-through of Federal Reserve interest rates to policy rates in Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. The author concludes that, to the extent that central banks take into account other central banks’ policies, there will be ‘policy contagion’ and that, even under flexible rates, monetary policy will not be fully independent.

A Greek strategy to win German hearts Financial Times Subscription Required
Robert Shrimsley (FT) Feb 5, 2015
Schäuble and Varoufakis cannot help but mention the war.

Greece is part of global debt challenge Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Feb 5, 2015
Proposals from McKinsey may not appeal much to Germany.

Greece owes a debt to Spain Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrés Ortega (FT) Feb 5, 2015
Athens brinkmanship could drive a wedge between the north and south of EU.

Greeks Get a Euro Education Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Feb 5, 2015
Alexis Tsipras’s new government won’t be able to divide and conquer Europe.

Financial Times Subscription Required New York Times Subscription Required Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Feb 5, 2015

Financial Times Subscription Required New York Times Subscription Required Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Feb 5, 2015

Four Years After, Tunisia Remains the Arab Spring's Lone Success Story
Chris Miller (YaleGlobal) Feb 5, 2015
Tunisia succeeded where Libya, Egypt, Syria failed – with compromise, avoidance of sectarian politics, and no external meddling.

The Oil Industry’s Future Recommended!
Jeremy Grantham (Barron's) Feb 5, 2015
The various forces that will drive energy prices in coming years.

TPP Talks See Progress in New York as Officials Suggest Deal Within Months
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 4 Feb 5, 2015
Efforts to wrap up the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks have reportedly gained momentum in recent weeks, with officials suggesting that a deal may be possible within months. Chief negotiators meeting in New York last week aimed to bridge some of the gaps across several chapters, amid reports that a breakthrough on US-Japan agriculture and automobile talks could be imminent.

Doha Round: Farm Exporters Question US Subsidies as Trade Talks Resume
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 4 Feb 5, 2015
US farm subsidies could exceed proposed new WTO limits by as much as US$3.6 billion, a new paper from a dozen agricultural exporting countries has said. The paper is the first attempt this year to move negotiators towards a more specific discussion of what they see as desirable and feasible under a possible Doha Round deal on trade.

African Leaders Stress Infrastructure Development Needs to Boost Growth
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 4 Feb 5, 2015
Enhancing infrastructure can promote industrialisation and boost intra-African trade, serving as a boon to the continent's growth, said South African President Jacob Zuma at the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) Heads of State and Government Summit held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia ahead of the AU Summit last week.

The IMF's lament for Ireland
Frances Coppola (Pieria) Feb 1, 2015
The sad story of Ireland in the Eurozone, as told by the IMF.

All We Are Saying Is Give Greece a Chance
Bloomberg View Feb 5, 2015
Greece has blinked; the EU should respond with a conciliatory approach.

Europe’s Two Futures
Dominique Moisi (Project Syndicate) Feb 5, 2015
Once again, Europe seems to have reached a fork in the road, either about to slide into oblivion or to demonstrate its ability to weather the strongest storms. The future will ultimately be determined by Europeans themselves, but they would be wise to consider how they are viewed from abroad.

Europe’s Eurasian Opportunity
Michael Schaefer and Inna Veleva (Project Syndicate) Feb 5, 2015
Europe's energy policy is being shaped by short-term geopolitical considerations, to the detriment of long-term stability and security. It is time for a new approach that leverages the interconnectedness of energy systems, economies, and strategic relationships to build a peaceful and prosperous future.

Obama Joins the Greek Chorus
Ashoka Mody (Project Syndicate) Feb 5, 2015
President Barack Obama’s recent call to ease the austerity imposed on Greece is remarkable – and not only for his endorsement of the newly elected Greek government’s stance in the face of its creditors. His comments represent a break with the long-standing tradition of American silence on European monetary affairs, and they should be heeded.


Feb 5, 2015

Is Russia Planning a Gold-Based Currency?
Marcia Christoff-Kurapovna (Mises Daily) Feb 6, 2015
The “perfect-storm” of geopolitical instability, diplomatic isolation, severe currency depreciation, and economic decline now confronting Russia has profoundly damaged Moscow's international standing, and possibly for the long-term. Yet, it is precisely such conditions that may push the country’s leadership into taking the radical step that will secure its world-player status once and for all: the adoption of a gold-exchange standard.

Globalisation everywhere but in the growth numbers
Michael Huberman, Christopher M. Meissner and Kim Oosterlinck (VoxEU) Feb 6, 2015
Understanding the relationship between trade and growth is still at the core of the economics profession. This column seeks to identify the pathways by which globalisation affects economic growth looking at the case of Belgium in the decades preceding the First World War. It argues that the collapse in fixed export costs promoted the entry of uncompetitive firms into export markets and as the trade component of GDP rose, the share of high performing firms contracted, slowing growth.

Four Fallacies About the Greek Crisis
Martin Hüfner (Globalist) Feb 6, 2015
Four incorrect assumptions veil the truth about Greece’s economic situation.

The Rise of the Frugal Economy
Navi Radjou and aideep Prabhu (Project Syndicate) Feb 6, 2015
Western economies have long been organized like pyramids, with a few large producers at the top and millions of passive consumers below. But with the Internet all but eliminating the costs associated with search, bargaining, decision-making, and enforcement, this economic structure is changing fast.

Are Oil Price Declines Good for the Economy?
Kevin L. Kliesen (FRBSL Economic Synopses) Feb 6, 2015
As expected, falling crude oil prices lead to falling gasoline prices and lower inflation.

Anxiety and Interest Rates: How Uncertainty Is Weighing on Us New York Times Subscription Required
Robert J. Shiller (NYT) Feb 7, 2015
People’s uncertainties about their personal futures are affecting our economic world in ways we don’t entirely understand.


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Global growth report card: Eurozone and Japan recovering Financial Times Subscription Required
Gavyn Davies (FT) Feb 8, 2015
A pick-up in activity in both the Eurozone and Japan is countering, and perhaps more than offsetting, a slowdown in the US. But in China, the progressive and gradual slowdown continues.


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Crises and trust
Maxim Ananyev and Sergei Guriev (VoxEU) Feb 8, 2015
The negative effects of recessions are not limited to consumption. Among others, they could also be harmful to preferences and values. This column uses recent evidence from Russia to argue that recessions can result in a sizeable decrease in interpersonal trust. This effect is transient in places where the fall in trust is small. In these regions, trust snaps back to pre-crisis levels as GDP recovers. In the places where fall in trust is large, the effect is persistent. Even after a recovery, trust remains 10 percentage points below the pre-crisis level.

Tax progressivity and tax revenue
Hans Holter, Dirk Krueger and Serhiy Stepanchuk (VoxEU) Feb 20, 2015
Since the Global Crisis, debt sustainability has received increasing attention. This column argues that the maximum sustainable debt level depends negatively on the progressivity of the tax system. The authors estimate that the US is still relatively far from the peak of its Laffer curve and from its maximally sustainable debt level. However, adopting a flat tax would raise the maximum sustainable debt from 330% to more than 350% of benchmark GDP, whereas adopting Danish-style progressivity would lower it to less than 250%.

Greece: No escape from the inevitable
Lars P Feld, Christoph M Schmidt, Isabel Schnabel, Benjamin Weigert and Volker Wieland (VoxEU) Feb 20, 2015
Claims that ‘austerity has failed’ are popular, especially in the Anglo-Saxon world. This column argues that this narrative is factually wrong and ignores the reasons underlying the Greek crisis. The worst move for Greece would be to return to its old ways. Greece needs to realise that things could actually become much worse than they are now, particularly if membership in the Eurozone cannot be assured. Instead of looking back, Greece needs to continue building a functioning state and a functioning market economy.

Fair debt relief for Greece: New calculations
Thomas Philippon (VoxEU) Feb 10, 2015
Greece has a problem with debt that must be addressed on way or the other. This column proposes a way to estimate a ‘fair’ level of fiscal consolidation in Greece. The author’s central argument is that contagion risk made the Greek crisis worse by preventing early debt restructuring. If restructuring took place in 2010 instead of 2012, Greece’s debt to GDP ratio would have been 30 percentage points lower today. To bring Greece’s debt under 120% of GDP, it would be fair for Greece to run a 3% primary surplus over the next decade or two. This is less than the current target of 4.5% but still requires a significant effort.

How Greece Got Outmaneuvered
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Feb 20, 2015
The E.U. finance ministers reached a deal with Greece on Friday, but the game isn’t over.

Global sourcing: New evidence from Spanish firms
Wilhelm Kohler and Marcel Smolka (VoxEU) Feb 20, 2015
The share of international trade within firm boundaries varies greatly across countries. This column presents new evidence on how the productivity of a firm affects the choice between vertical integration and outsourcing, as well as between foreign and domestic sourcing. The productivity effects found in Spanish firm-level data suggest that contractual imperfections distort the sourcing of inputs in the global economy, and that firm boundaries emerge in response to mitigate this distortion.

Growth quality: A new index
Montfort Mlachila, René Tapsoba and Sampawende Tapsoba (VoxEU) Feb 21, 2015
Despite the consensus that growth alone does not need to lead to better social outcomes, a formal quantification of the quality of growth is still missing. This column seeks to bridge this gap by proposing a new quality of growth index that captures both the intrinsic nature and the social dimension of growth. This index could legitimately be part of the benchmarking tools for guiding policies toward more inclusive growth.

Capital flow waves to and from Switzerland
Pinar Yesin (VoxEU) Feb 21, 2015
Safe haven inflows to Switzerland during global turmoil have been mentioned numerous times by the financial press and international organisations. However, recent research cannot find evidence for surges of capital inflows to Switzerland. In fact, this column argues that private capital inflows to and outflows from Switzerland have become exceptionally muted and less volatile since the Crisis. By contrast, net private capital flows have shown significantly higher volatility since the Crisis, frequently registering extreme movements. However, these extreme movements in net flows are not driven by surges of inflows.

The Fed’s global responsibilities Financial Times Subscription Required
Gavyn Davies (FT) Feb 22, 2015
When the Federal Reserve starts to raise US interest rates later this year, there will be a major shift in the global monetary regime.

Austerity pays off after all
Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller and Johannes Pfeifer (VoxEU) Feb 22, 2015
Many observers blame austerity for much of the Eurozone’s current economic woes. This column presents new evidence on how financial markets assess austerity. Cutting government consumption raises the sovereign default premium in the short run. However, austerity pays off in the long run.

The cost competitiveness obsession
Konstantins Benkovskis and Julia Woerz (VoxEU) Feb 24, 2015
There is no single replicable and comprehensive indicator of competitiveness that can be applied to various entities. In this column, the authors propose a novel decomposition of market share growth that captures non-price factors, such as quality or tastes. The findings imply that relying solely on price factors to determine a country’s competiveness might be misleading. For instance, central for boosting China’s presence in the global market were improvements in non-price factors. The role played by the exchange rate has been less important.

Why the taxpayer is on the hook
Hans-Werner Sinn (VoxEU) Feb 24, 2015
It has been debated whether taxpayers would have to foot the bill from different ECB government bonds purchase programmes. This column argues that for the participants of such programmes that involve the mutualisation of interest revenues, there is no free lunch.

Defining ‘responsible’ fiscal policy for Europe
Marco Buti and Nicolas Carnot (VoxEU) Feb 24, 2015
In an uncertain world, fiscal policy must be robust to a range of models. This column introduces a rule of thumb governing fiscal expansion that is consistent for a group of countries, and for each country individually. Applying this rule to the Eurozone recommends overall fiscal neutrality, with moderate consolidation in France and Spain, lower consolidation in Italy, and moderate stimulus in Germany. This policy is optimal for Germany even without taking into account positive spillovers to other members.

The cost competitiveness obsession
Konstantins Benkovskis and Julia Woerz (VoxEU) Feb 24, 2015
There is no single replicable and comprehensive indicator of competitiveness that can be applied to various entities. In this column, the authors propose a novel decomposition of market share growth that captures non-price factors, such as quality or tastes. The findings imply that relying solely on price factors to determine a country’s competiveness might be misleading. For instance, central for boosting China’s presence in the global market were improvements in non-price factors. The role played by the exchange rate has been less important.

Causes of the 2014 oil price decline
Lutz Kilian (VoxEU) Feb 25, 2015
Between June and December 2014, the Brent price of crude oil fell by 44%, resulting in one of the most dramatic declines in the price of oil in recent history. This column presents a new quantitative analysis of the market for crude oil. According to the model the authors use, around half of the decline ($27) was predictable using publicly available information. A part of this decline was due to a slowdown in global economic activity, but the major part came from supply and demand shocks in the oil market. Nevertheless, there are reasons to expect the decline in oil prices to end soon.

Input specificity and the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks in production networks
Jean-Noël Barrot and Julien Sauvagnat (VoxEU) Feb 26, 2015
Recessions are contagious, but little is known about how adverse shocks spread through production networks. This column presents quantitative evidence on inter-firm contagion using natural disasters as exogenous instruments. Adverse shocks to upstream suppliers lower sales growth and valuation of a downstream firm.

Cross-border financial linkages: Identifying and measuring vulnerabilities
Philip R. Lane (VoxEU) Feb 26, 2015
There has been spectacular growth in cross-border financial linkages over the last 20 years. Moreover, boom-bust cycles in international financial flows have contributed to financial instability and financial crises in a number of countries. While the coverage of international financial datasets has sharply improved in recent years, this column introduces CEPR Policy Insight 77, explaining that the currently available data lacks the detailed information (in particular, the matrix of cross-border sectoral exposures) to provide a sufficient basis for risk surveillance and monitoring. Accordingly, a high priority for policymakers is to implement current proposals to improve the scope and quality of international financial data.

House prices, local demand, and retail prices
Johannes Stroebel and Joseph Vavra (VoxEU) Feb 26, 2015
Rising prices have long been a concern of monetary policymakers due to wealth effects on spending. This column presents evidence that local demand effects from house price increases result in significant local price inflation. Households living in locations with rapidly increasing real estate prices will also face rapidly increasing costs of goods purchased in local stores.

Liquidity risk and systemic banking crises
Daniel C Hardy and Philip Hochreiter (VoxEU) Feb 26, 2015
A minor adverse shock to financial markets can be propagated by liquidity strains, leading to a major crisis. This column suggests a novel measure to address systemic liquidity risk – a Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer, which would require financial institutions to hold systemically liquid assets in proportion to their liabilities less regulatory capital. This proportion varies positively with growth in system-wide funding needs, so the liquidity buffer increases when non-equity funding is growing.

Fiscal multipliers and Eurozone consolidation
Sebastian Gechert, Andrew Hughes Hallett and Ansgar Rannenberg (VoxEU) Feb 26, 2015
The literature on fiscal multipliers has expanded greatly since the outbreak of the Global Crisis.

The precarious state of the global economy Financial Times Subscription Required
FT Feb 25, 2015
The G20 governments should look towards boosting fiscal stimulus.

Venezuela: the case for default Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Feb 25, 2015
A shipment of gold to Switzerland has reassured investors, but default on Friday cannot be ruled out.

Infighting at the top puts the Indian economy at risk Financial Times Subscription Required
Swaminathan Aiyar (FT) Feb 25, 2015
Sitting on the fence will not do. Mr Jaitley should defer to Mr Rajan.

EM ex-China growth slips below that of developed world Financial Times Subscription Required
Steve Johnson (FT) Feb 25, 2015
First reversal of convergence trend since 1999 threatens livelihoods of billions.

Brexit: Fraying union Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Milne and Peter Spiegel (FT) Feb 25, 2015
Without Britain, countries such as Denmark will find it harder to keep voters on the EU path.

Debt and fiscal adjustment: Historical evidence
Julio Escolano, Laura Jaramillo, Carlos Mulas-Granados and Gilbert Terrier (VoxEU) Feb 27, 2015
Fiscal consolidation is back at the top of the policy agenda. This column provides historical context by examining 91 episodes of fiscal consolidation in advanced and developing economies between 1945 and 2012. By focusing on cases in which the adjustment was necessary and desired in order to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio, the authors find larger average fiscal adjustments than previous studies. Most consolidation episodes resulted in stabilisation of the debt-to-GDP ratio, but at a new, higher level.

Syriza and debt talks: Estimates from a Rubinstein bargain approach
Paolo Manasse (VoxEU) Feb 27, 2015
With the large Syriza victory in Greece, thoughts turn to forthcoming debt restructuring talks. This column argues that Greece is unlikely to get a large restructuring. Using a Rubinstein bargain approach to generate a back-of-the-envelope estimate, Greece would get some breathing room but not much. Rather than running a structural primary surplus of the order of 5% of potential output, as envisaged in the IMF projection, Greece could get away with a number close to 3.75%.

Credit supply and the housing boom
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti (VoxEU) Feb 27, 2015
There is no consensus among economists on the forces that drove the historical rise of US house prices and household debt that preceded the Global Crisis. In this column, the authors argue that the fundamental factor behind that boom was an increase in the supply of mortgage credit. This rise was brought about by the diffusion of securitisation and shadow banking, and by a surge in foreign capital inflows. The finding is based on a straightforward interpretation of four key macroeconomic developments between 2000 and 2006, provided by a simple general equilibrium model of housing and credit.

The Great Recession was not so Great
Jan van Ours (VoxEU) Feb 27, 2015
The Great Recession has been characterised by an unprecedented decline in GDP, and unemployment rates remain above pre-Great Recession levels in many countries. This column argues that economic growth is a ‘one size fits all’ solution for the problem of unemployment, because the unemployment rates of different kinds of workers are strongly correlated within countries. That said, economic growth affects above all the position of young workers, and so benefits mostly those who need it the most.

Reinvention is needed to secure the future of Big Oil Financial Times Subscription Required
FT View Feb 28, 2015
Energy groups must learn to live with $50 crude or risk extinction.

Europe enters the age of disintegration Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Feb 28, 2015
There will not necessarily be a formal break-up of the EU, but it will become less effective.

Brazil in a quagmire Economist Subscription Required
Economist Feb 28, 2015
Government and investors have yet to face up to the scale of Brazil’s economic and political problems.

Labour market reforms and international imbalances
Giuseppe Bertola and Anna Lo Prete (VoxEU) Feb 28, 2015
The large international imbalances accumulated in the Eurozone have proven difficult to unwind during the recent Crisis. This column argues that market reforms had a role in generating current account imbalances, and that patterns of relative labour market regulation could be equally important in the aftermath of the Crisis.

Serfdom and Russian economic development
Andrei Markevich and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (VoxEU) Feb 28, 2015
There is a debate among economists about the effects of serfdom on economic development. This column sheds light on this debate using novel dataset from 19th-century Russia. The findings indicate that serfdom was a crucial factor causing economic slowdown. The abolishment of serfdom was followed by a sharp increase in agricultural productivity, the living standards of peasants, and industrial development.

When negative rates become a zero sum game Financial Times Subscription Required
FT View Feb 29, 2015
Stimulus policies should be structured in ways that boost demand.

EM flows: (almost) back in the black Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Feb 29, 2015
Non-resident flows to EMs were roughly flat in February after seven months of outflows, says IIF

African IPOs ‘to hit six-year high’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Steve Johnson (FT) Feb 29, 2015
Egypt to lead rebound in flotations as economy stabilises.

China’s state-owned Zombie economy Financial Times Subscription Required
Gabriel Wildau (FT) Feb 29, 2015
Reforming a sector burdened by debt and overcapacity is critical to restoring growth in the economy.

The end of the Argentine debt impasse is in sight Financial Times Subscription Required
FT View Mar 1, 2015
Mauricio Macri has scored a success but still has much to do.

G20: not as bland as it seems Financial Times Subscription Required
Dan Bogler (FT) Mar 1, 2015
Global policymakers demonstrated their support for what matters: the renminbi.

China Might Still Be Booming
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Mar 1, 2015
A new method of forecasting economic growth bodes well for China and India.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Prakash Loungani (Finance & Development, Vol. 52, No. 1) Mar 1, 2015
Education, migration, and redistribution are key elements of a long-term solution to global unemployment.

A Long Commute
Çaglar Özden (Finance & Development, Vol. 52, No. 1) Mar 1, 2015
Immigrants do more good than harm when they enter a country's job market.

Toil and Technology
James Bessen (Finance & Development, Vol. 52, No. 1) Mar 1, 2015
Innovative technology is pushing workers to new jobs rather than replacing them entirely.

Point of View: System Malfunction
William R. White (Finance & Development, Vol. 52, No. 1) Mar 1, 2015
The global economy is rife with imbalances that cannot be fixed under the present international monetary (non)system

China bond market shake-up seen to attract trillions of dollars Financial Times Subscription Required
Steve Johnson (FT) Mar 2, 2015
Beijing has ripped up the rule book to open its $7.3tn market.

Global trade: structural shifts Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Mar 2, 2015
The fall in traffic could signal a permanent shift in the fundamentals driving globalisation.

Post-Crisis banking regulation: Evolution of economic thinking as it happened on Vox
Jon Danielsson (VoxEU) Mar 2, 2015
This column introduces a new Vox eBook collecting some of the best Vox columns on financial regulations, starting with the fundamentals of financial regulations, moving on to bank capital and the Basel regulations, and finishing with the wider considerations of the regulatory agenda and the political dimension. Collecting columns from over the past six years, this eBook maps the evolution of leading thought on banking regulation.

ECB minutes: What they really tell us
Charles Wyplosz (VoxEU) Mar 2, 2015
The ECB has finally begun releasing the minutes of its policymaking meetings, something the world's major central banks have been doing since the 1990s. This column asks whether the publication of these minutes increases ECB transparency. While providing useful information on analysis at the ECB, the minutes lack the details on the actual discussions and the voting behaviour of committee members that the minutes of the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan provide. They thus constitute just the first step, albeit a very welcome one, towards ECB transparency.

Assessing compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact’s rules
Carlo Cottarelli (VoxEU) Mar 2, 2015
The European Commission has clarified the flexibility in existing Eurozone fiscal rules. This column argues that the emphasis on structural rather than headline deficits is desirable but requires identification of potential growth rates. The way the Commission currently estimates potential output yields potential growth estimates that are very low. Thus, a year of modest expected growth like 2015 may be treated as a year of economic boom that requires faster than normal fiscal adjustments.

If easing is not Europe’s answer, an alternative is elusive Financial Times Subscription Required
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (FT) Mar 3, 2015
Only signals from the ECB that easing will not be stopped have reversed worsening sentiment.

A chance for China to restore its credibility Financial Times Subscription Required
FT View Mar 3, 2015
Capital controls can only buy time to address the underlying issues.

Is Brexit a threat to foreign direct investment? Financial Times Subscription Required
Courtney Fingar (FT) Mar 3, 2015
Majority of EM investors in the UK that cite a target market are targeting the EU.

Capital taxation in the 21st century
Alan J Auerbach and Kevin Hassett (VoxEU) Mar 3, 2015
Piketty's justification for his proposed wealth tax relies on the notion that the rate of return on capital exceeds economic growth. This column challenges this basis, arguing that it fails to account for risk. The authors also examine the relative merits of a consumption tax, which may be more valid.

Argentina’s haircut as an outlier
Sebastian Edwards (VoxEU) Mar 4, 2015
There were 24 sovereign defaults and debt restructurings between 1997 and 2013. Using data on 180 debt restructurings – for both sovereign bonds and sovereign syndicated bank loans – this column argues that the roughly 75% ‘haircut’ Argentina imposed on its creditors in 2005 was an outlier. Greece’s ‘haircut’ of roughly 64% in 2012, by contrast, was in line with previous experience.

Global value chains and domestic value added: New evidence
Victor Kümmritz (VoxEU) Mar 5, 2015
Global value chains (GVCs) clearly promote trade and investment but their impact on domestic value-added is less clear. This column discusses new evidence showing that GVCs participation stimulates domestic value, but not for all nations. It is necessary for low- and middle-income countries to increase their absorptive capacities if they are to reap benefits from GVC participation.

Transportation costs and industrial clustering: New evidence
Kristian Behrens, Théophile Bougna and Mark Brown (VoxEU) Mar 5, 2015
Transport costs fell precipitously during the last century leading many observers to posit that the world has ‘become flat’. If this were true, the costs of transporting goods should no longer have much bearing on firms’ location choices and the spatial structure of economic activity. This column, using manufacturing data for Canada from 1990 to 2008, argues that despite a decline in geographical concentration of industries, location patterns still change with fluctuations in transport costs.

Macroprudential spillovers and organisational structure
Piotr Danisewicz, Dennis Reinhardt and Rhiannon Sowerbutts (VoxEU) Mar 5, 2015
In a global financial system, macroprudential policies may create international spillovers. This column presents new evidence on how the organisational structure of a bank affects the magnitude of these spillovers. An increase in capital requirements at home causes foreign branches to reduce their lending growth to other banks operating in the UK more than foreign subsidiaries do. Seemingly, this is because branches are an integral part of the parent company.


Mar 5, 2015


Mar 5, 2015

The Power of the Powerless Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Amrita Narlikar (FA) Mar 12, 2015
The politics of poverty at the Doha Round.

QE Could Spur Needed Reform in the Eurozone Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Melvyn Krauss (WSJ) Mar 13, 2015
Combating deflation and lowering interest rates make structural reforms in periphery countries more affordable.

Oil Export Folly Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Mar 13, 2015
The U.S. ban is harming the oil patch and raising gasoline prices.

Gazprom: Keeping the taps open Financial Times Subscription Required
Alex Barker, Christian Oliver and Jack Farchy (FT) Mar 15, 2015
The EU’s antitrust case threatens to sour relations between Moscow and the west further.

Smoke and mirrors are safer than cold turkey Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Mar 15, 2015
Grexit may well work in the long run but it will bring economic misery in the short term.

Fed is ready for lift off on rates Financial Times Subscription Required
Gavyn Davies (FT) Mar 15, 2015
Gap is large between hawks and doves on the pace of tightening.

US should work from inside Asia’s bank Financial Times Subscription Required
Fred Bergsten (FT) Mar 15, 2015
Washington should sign up and bless the desire of its friends to join.

No, We're Not in a Currency War
Bloomberg View Mar 15, 2015
The bogus rhetoric of economic conflict is dangerous as well as wrong.

The Trouble With Sanctions
Jordan Olmstead (Diplomat) Mar 15, 2015
Sanctions may well be the least worst option in dealing with hostile regimes. But they can have unintended consequences.


Mar 15, 2015


Mar 15, 2015


Mar 15, 2015


Mar 15, 2015

China’s money magnet pulls US allies Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Mar 16, 2015
Diplomatic debacle over AIIB will make America look isolated and petulant.

Japan’s big lesson for the eurozone Financial Times Subscription Required
Peter Tasker (FT) Mar 16, 2015
Be patient and prepare for a bumpy ride.

Wimp label sticks to emerging nations Financial Times Subscription Required
Ousmène Mandeng (FT) Mar 16, 2015
They suffer from lacking international monetary power.

Fed is ready for lift off on rates Financial Times Subscription Required
Gavyn Davies (FT) Mar 16, 2015
Gap is large between hawks and doves on the pace of tightening.

Financial Times Subscription Required
Mar 16, 2015

Financial Times Subscription Required New York Times Subscription Required Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mar 16, 2015

Financial Times Subscription Required New York Times Subscription Required Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mar 16, 2015

The robots are coming
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Mar 16, 2015
Society can adjust to new technology; will it?

The new demography of death
George W. Leeson (OECD Insight) Mar 16, 2015
In Europe, population ageing continues and brings with it increasing numbers of centenarians and supercentenarians as well as a new demography of death.

Japan’s Devaluation Warning for Europe
WSJ Mar 16, 2015
Monetary easing without reform has reduced real wages.


Mar 16, 2015


Mar 16, 2015

Brazil Needs to Get Back on Reform Track
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Mar 16, 2015
Brazil's mass protests should be the catalyst for President Dilma Rousseff to press forward with reforms.

Can Asia Survive a Strong Dollar?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 16, 2015
The region is better prepared than 1997, but still not immune.

How Scary Is the Bond Market?
Robert J. Shiller (Project Syndicate) Mar 16, 2015
With the bond market appearing ripe for a dramatic correction, many are wondering whether a crash could drag down markets for other long-term assets, such as housing and equities. But when an event has never occurred, it cannot be predicted with any semblance of confidence.

The Messy Politics of Economic Divergence
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Mar 16, 2015
The world is increasingly characterized by divergence – in economic performance, monetary policy, and thus in financial markets. Though there is a broad consensus on what must be done to rebalance the global economy, political leaders remain unwilling to fulfill their economic-governance responsibilities.

Japan’s Accounting Problem
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Mar 16, 2015
Japan, it seems clear, is monetizing several trillion dollars of government debt. And, despite the orthodox fear that monetization inevitably fuels dangerous inflation, the most likely market reaction will be a yawn.

Two giants with a chance for partnership Financial Times Subscription Required
Kishore Mahbubani (FT) Mar 17, 2015
The breakthrough can come only if Xi and Modi are truly statesmanlike.

Positive buzz about Europe hard to defend Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephanie Flanders (FT) Mar 17, 2015
‘Outperformance’ of EU shares due to weak euro and strong dollar.

Draghi QE is stoking bond bubble risk Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Mar 17, 2015
Eurozone bond prices losing touch with fundamentals.

China: With friends like these Financial Times Subscription Required
Mar 17, 2015
Beijing has lent billions to spread its influence, but as defaults loom its approach is shifting.

3 European Powers Say They Will Join China-Led Bank New York Times Subscription Required
Andrew Higgins and David E. Sanger (NYT) Mar 17, 2015
Germany, France and Italy said that they would be part of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which Washington views as a rival to the World Bank.

Designing Private Cities, Open to All New York Times Subscription Required
Alex Tabarrok and Shruti Rajagopalan (NYT) Mar 17, 2015
How the company town offers an alternative model of urban development.

Divided Europe Mired in Crises
Chris Miller (YaleGlobal) Mar 17, 2015
Europe seeks influence, yet fails to strengthen institutions to stabilize economic and regional security

Greece's Euro Exit Seems Inevitable
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 17, 2015
Every day of delay in cutting a deal pushes Greece a little closer to leaving the common currency.

The Worldwide Deficit of High-Quality Debt
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Mar 17, 2015
There's strong demand for high-quality sovereign debt and not enough supply, which means yields will stay low for a long time.

Government Promises and the Next Bank Crisis
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Mar 17, 2015
In the wake of the Carinthia debt crisis in Austria, European countries have so far been unable to take stock of all the government guarantees they have issued. That's a dangerous uncertainty.

A Trade Deal Liberals Can Live With
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Mar 17, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is too important for the U.S. to pass up.

How Far Will the Euro Fall?
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Mar 17, 2015
The US dollar is hitting new 12-year highs almost daily, while the euro seems to be plunging inexorably to below dollar parity. But there are plenty of reasons to believe that the exchange-rate trend may already be overshooting.

Making Space for China
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Mar 17, 2015
In response to the UK's decision to become a founding member of the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank, American officials have accused their British counterparts of "constant accommodation of China." In fact, it is the US, not the UK, that is advocating the wrong approach.

Africa’s Eurobond Bonanza
Koffi Alle (Project Syndicate) Mar 17, 2015
The issuance of Eurobonds has soared in the wake of the global financial crisis, as many Sub-Saharan countries tapped the international bond market for the first time. The opportunity that Eurobonds imply for funding development efforts in Africa is immense, but their use must be carefully managed.

Fragility lies beneath a bright outlook Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 18, 2015
On both the demand and supply sides, the assumed recovery looks questionable.

Russia faces long balancing act for banks Financial Times Subscription Required
Neil Buckley (FT) Mar 18, 2015
Sector is facing its biggest crisis since 2009 global recession.

Positive buzz about Europe hard to defend Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephanie Flanders (FT) Mar 18, 2015
‘Outperformance’ of EU shares due to weak euro and strong dollar.

Two giants with a chance for partnership Financial Times Subscription Required
Kishore Mahbubani (FT) Mar 18, 2015
The breakthrough can come only if Xi and Modi are truly statesmanlike.

The Engine That Pulled Us Out of Recession Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Penny Pritzker and Jim McNerney (WSJ) Mar 18, 2015
One-third of overall U.S. economic growth since 2009 came from goods and services sold abroad.

A Necessary Correction in the Oil Industry
Peter Wong (Mises Daily) Mar 18, 2015
Historically, low oil prices have been perceived by many as an overriding positive for the economy. This has especially been the case in the United States where most households rely on car travel as a primary means of transport. Low oil prices allow households to spend more on economic activities other than gasoline and other oil-related expenses. Historically, every time the oil price soared — such as the 1973 oil crisis, the 1991 Gulf War, and in 2008 when oil reached a historical high of $147 a barrel — public opinion always regarded these events as a serious threat to the economy.

Central Bank Autonomy Is Under Attack
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 18, 2015
Monetary policy can provide a bedrock of economic certainty -- but only if central bankers can discharge their duties without fear of government interference.

Why Asia Should Welcome the Taper
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 18, 2015
Fed tightening should give momentum to reforms in India and Indonesia.

Winning the Too-Big-to-Fail Battle
Mark Roe (Project Syndicate) Mar 18, 2015
After the financial crisis forced governments to bail out systemically important banks, regulators implemented measures to safeguard the financial system. Recent studies suggest that their efforts are working – but they still have a long way to go.

A Strong Dollar Forces the Fed To Rethink Its Next Move
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Mar 18, 2015
Movements in currency are increasingly exacting a greater impact on the U.S. economy, and the Fed can’t afford to ignore them.

Obama Abandons Allies on China’s Marshall Plan
Kevin Gallagher (Globalist) Mar 18, 2015
The U.S. condemnation of the UK over its engagement with China on AIIB has left it isolated.

China's Big Debt Swap Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Dan Steinbock (FA) Mar 18, 2015
How Beijing is handling local liabilities.

Don't Blame the Banks Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Tom Keatinge (FA) Mar 18, 2015
How overregulation chokes the flow of remittances to Somalia.

UK can walk tall if productivity increases Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 19, 2015
The government made three arguments for accelerated austerity. None was persuasive.

Accommodating China, disappointing US Financial Times Subscription Required
Robert Shrimsley (FT) Mar 19, 2015
Obama is displeased with Cameron over the AIIB.

Yellen fights back in euro-dollar drama Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Mar 19, 2015
Euro fall shows disruptive potential of central banks.

How Foreigners Became America’s Financial Regulators Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Peter Wallison and Daniel Gallagher (WSJ) Mar 21, 2015
The Fed and Treasury are answering to a board of the G-20 without admitting it to the American people.

The Incredibly Rosy Forecast of Russia's Central Bank
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Mar 19, 2015
The Central Bank of Russia has published its 3-year forecast for economic growth in 2015-17. The forecast, released on March 14, is so overly optimistic that three comments are in order.

TPP Chief Negotiators Conclude Hawaii Meet as Washington Debate Continues
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 10 Mar 19, 2015
Chief negotiators from the 12 Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries wrapped up a weeklong meeting in the US state of Hawaii on Sunday evening, as part of a concerted push to conclude an agreement in the coming months.

Launch of African Tripartite FTA Set for June
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 10 Mar 19, 2015
The launch of a 26-country African trade deal will now take place in June during the third Tripartite Summit between the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the East African Community (EAC), and Southern African Development Community (SADC), sources have confirmed.

Timing of EU-India Trade Talks Reboot Unclear after Summit Cancellation
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 10 Mar 19, 2015
A planned April summit between the EU and India has been cancelled, officials confirmed, leaving unclear when the next opportunity might be to reboot bilateral trade talks between the trading partners.

Turning Japanese Recommended!
Roland Kelts (Long+Short) Mar 19, 2015
Coping with stasis: how the supposed 'sick man of Asia' might be a model for us all.

The Mounting Global Challenges of Rampant Corruption
Frank Vogl (Globalist) Mar 19, 2015
Corruption stretching from China to Brazil has left economic stagnation in its wake.

Fed up
Rebecca Harding (Pieria) Mar 19, 2015
Raising interest rates would be damaging to the prospects for long-term economic growth in the US.

Japan Needs a Bigger Land Grab
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 19, 2015
The central bank should be seeking to bolster property prices outside Tokyo, too.

China's Place in the New World Economic Order
Bloomberg View Mar 19, 2015
China makes its bid for a seat at the table of the international economic order.

The Man Who Can Save Brazil
Bloomberg View Mar 19, 2015
To rescue Brazil's economy and her presidency, Dilma Rousseff needs to back her new finance minister to the hilt.

Asia’s Almighty Middle Class
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) Mar 19, 2015
Despite recent economic uncertainty, Asia’s middle class is growing fast. In the coming decades, this burgeoning demographic segment will serve as a keystone for economic and political development in the region, with significant implications for the rest of the world.

Financing Education for All
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Mar 19, 2015
Of all of the investments needed to achieve sustainable development, none is more important than a quality education for every child. The time has come to create a Global Fund for Education to ensure that even the world’s poorest children have the chance to receive a quality education at least through secondary school.

The Fed Versus Price Stability
Robert Heller (Project Syndicate) Mar 19, 2015
There is a big difference between the US Federal Reserve’s mandate to maintain “stable prices” – as enunciated in the Federal Reserve Act – and the Fed’s self-selected target of 2% annual inflation. So how is it that policymakers have managed to substitute the latter for the former?

Fed Rate Forecast: Cloudy With a Chance of Slower Growth Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
David Malpass (WSJ) Feb 20, 2015
The decision to hike rates may get harder as the year progresses.

The Greece Issue Breeds Brinkmanship in the Eurozone New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Mar 20, 2015
Discussions about a new loan agreement seem to be going even worse than expected.

U.S. Allies, Lured by China’s Bank New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Mar 20, 2015
In significant ways, the flocking of Western nations to a potential World Bank rival is a problem of America’s own making.

The tricky task of killing off the sovereign risk subsidy
The Banker Mar 20, 2015
The sovereign risk weight subsidy is an obvious target for regulators looking to shore up bank balance sheets, but getting rid of it will be easier said than done.

A Deal India's Farmers Can't Refuse
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Mar 20, 2015
Give them title to their land -- and let them sell it.

Bond Markets Bet on Grexit
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 20, 2015
Two taboos about Greece's future as a member of the euro were broken this week as the nation's financial future looks increasingly shaky.

China’s Trial-and-Error Economy
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Mar 20, 2015
The key to understanding China’s development path is to grasp the process of trial and error that has long guided policymaking. In such a context of experimentation, mistakes are to be expected; what matters is how the country's leaders respond to them.

Brazil’s Dim Voice on the World Stage New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Mar 21, 2015
President Dilma Rousseff, who has been an underwhelming leader, would be wise to spend more energy looking outward.

Asia’s infrastructure gap
Economist Mar 21, 2015
As Western countries sign up to China’s development bank, America is wrong to turn its back.

The new authoritarianism
Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman (VoxEU) Mar 21, 2015
In recent decades, new forms of dictatorship based on manipulating information rather than on mass violence, have emerged. This column explores the trade-offs and techniques of the modern dictator. Such dictators can survive using little violence in the face of moderate economic underperformance. Economic downturns often prompt an increase in censorship and propaganda. Though new information-based dictatorships are better adapted to a modernised society, modernisation and access to information, as well as economic contractions could undermine them.

IPOs are going downhill fast Financial Times Subscription Required
Kate Burgess (FT) Mar 22, 2015
Decline highlights need to balance investment protection with encouragement.

Eurozone QE relies on a confidence trick Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Mar 22, 2015
Programme’s impact unknown without evidence of how the policy transmits to the real economy.

Exchange rates: Transatlantic divergence Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins, Sam Fleming and Claire Jones (FT) Mar 22, 2015
There are signs Europe’s economy is turning a corner, but will dollar strength curb the US recovery?

This Snookered Isle
Paul Krugman (NYT) Mar 22, 2015
A misleading fixation on budget deficits has become entrenched despite, not because of, what serious economists had to say.

Lee Kuan Yew's Economic Miracle
Bloomberg View Mar 22, 2015
If there's such a thing as 'Asian capitalism,' its spark, smartest proponent and most controversial symbol was the founder of the region's smallest country: Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew.

Let Obama Close the TPP Deal
Bloomberg View Mar 22, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership would be good for everyone.

How to Build Economies
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Mar 22, 2015
In economic development, broad principles will only get you so far.

Correlating Social Mobility and Economic Outcomes
Maia Güell, Giovanni Pica, Michele Pellizzari and José V. Rodríguez Mora (VoxEU) Mar 23, 2015
We apply a novel measure of intergenerational mobility (IM) developed by Güell, Rodríguez Mora, and Telmer (2014) to a rich combination of Italian data allowing us to produce comparable measures of IM of income for 103 Italian provinces. We then exploit the large heterogeneity across Italian provinces in terms of economic and social outcomes to explore how IM correlates with a variety of outcomes. We find that (i) higher IM is positively associated with a variety of “good” economic outcomes, such as higher value added per capita, higher employment, lower unemployment, higher schooling and higher openness and (ii) that also within Italy the “the Great Gatsby Curve” exists: in provinces in which mobility is lower cross-sectional income inequality is larger. We finally explore the correlation between IM and several socio-political outcomes, such as crime and life expectancy, but we do not find any clear systematic relationship on this respect.

Growth alone will not stabilise Europe Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Mar 23, 2015
Fear of immigration and anger at elite corruption, as well as austerity, bolster extreme politics.

Uneasy peace will tear apart world economy Financial Times Subscription Required
Mark Leonard (FT) Mar 23, 2015
Rising geopolitical tensions are turning corporations into global pawns.

Challenges faced by a singular city state Financial Times Subscription Required
Kishore Mahbubani (FT) Mar 23, 2015
Political rumblings in Singapore can be heard.

Fed ‘lift-off’ is to destination unknown Financial Times Subscription Required
David Riley (FT) Mar 23, 2015
US rate rise journey likely to be turbulent.

Low yields make patience best strategy Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Mar 23, 2015
Investors sit on sidelines as carry trade risks outweigh rewards.

In Lee Kuan Yew, China Saw a Leader to Emulate New York Times Subscription Required
Chris Buckley (NYT) Mar 23, 2015
His decades leading Singapore gave Chinese officials a model of how to navigate economic and social transformations without politically capsizing.

Keeping China In or Out? Beijing Vs. Washington on TPP
Shihoko Goto (Globalist) Mar 23, 2015
Global economic diplomacy gets more complicated as China plays its cards.

China Wants to Buy Europe
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Mar 23, 2015
There are good reasons for a Chinese state company to buy tire maker Pirelli, but European governments should be wary of such deals.

Populists Still Not Ready to Rule Europe
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Mar 23, 2015
Radical parties performed well in regional elections in Spain and France, but they stopped short of winning. The mainstream parties' cause is far from lost.

The Unbearable Exuberance of China's Markets
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 23, 2015
Out-of-control margin lending is driving China toward a crash.

Will More of the Same Last?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Mar 23, 2015
The U.S. Federal Reserve and European officials are confusing calm markets and high asset prices with smart economic and monetary policy.

In Praise of Short Sellers
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) Mar 23, 2015
How takedown artists can keep the market honest.

Will Fed Tightening Choke Emerging Markets? Recommended!
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Mar 23, 2015
As the Federal Reserve moves closer to initiating one of the most long-awaited and widely predicted periods of rising short-term interest rates in the US, many are asking how emerging markets will be affected. The answer depends on whether countries have adhered to the lessons of the 1980s and 1990s.

IMF Review Weighs How to Harness Trade for Growth
IMF Survey Mar 23, 2015
Amid concerns over a “new mediocre” in the global economy, trade should be seen as an integral part of the plan for increasing global growth over the medium term, the IMF says in its regular five-year review of trade, that also discusses key issues for the IMF’s work agenda.

Mortgaging the Future?
Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor (FRBSF Economic Letter) Mar 23, 2015
In the six decades following World War II, bank lending measured as a ratio to GDP has quadrupled in advanced economies. To a great extent, this unprecedented expansion of credit was driven by a dramatic growth in mortgage loans. Lending backed by real estate has allowed households to leverage up and has changed the traditional business of banking in fundamental ways. This “Great Mortgaging” has had a profound influence on the dynamics of business cycles.

Hanergy: The 10-minute trade Financial Times Subscription Required
Miles Johnson and Gavin Jackson (FT) Mar 24, 2015
FT analysis highlights unusual trading patterns over the past two years.

A rebuff of China’s AIIB would be folly Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 24, 2015
It would be good if the lender were white as snow. But this is a fallen world.

Low yields make patience best strategy Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Mar 24, 2015
Investors sit on sidelines as carry trade risks outweigh rewards.

A Greek Surprise Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Mar 24, 2015
Creditors no longer fear that Greece might leave the euro.

Germany’s Choice: Shaper or Bystander?
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Mar 24, 2015
10 points on what Germany needs to do to save the Eurozone — and safeguard Germany’s own interests.

Looking for the Bear in the Bull Market
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Mar 24, 2015
It isn't always easy to tell when we're in a short-term cyclical stock market or long-term secular market.

Five Charts Show Europe's Economy Is All Right
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 24, 2015
There are surprising signs of life to be glimpsed in the euro-region economy that aren't reflected in stock, bond or currency markets.

The Political Perils of a Ukraine Default
Marc Champion (Bloomberg View) Mar 24, 2015
Ukraine's debt standoff is about more than just the losses creditors might incur.

Give China a Reserve Currency
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 24, 2015
Including the yuan among the world's reserve currencies would give a boost to reformers at home.

How to Fight Currency Manipulation
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Mar 24, 2015
Currency manipulation is a real problem that causes significant damage. The Trans-Pacific Partnership – the mega-regional free-trade agreement involving the US, Japan, and ten other countries in Latin America and Asia – may offer the best chance to fix it.

Messed-Up Macro
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Mar 24, 2015
Once beliefs and expectations are introduced into economics, as is surely reasonable, the results of fiscal and monetary policy become indeterminate. Too much depends on what people think the results of the policy will be.

China's Fragile Evolution
Rodger Baker and John Minnich (Stratfor) Mar 24, 2015
Last week, China's anti-corruption campaign took a significant turn, though a largely overlooked one.

Missteps that could cost Greece the euro Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Mar 25, 2015
Officials with little governing experience risk eroding their credibility.

The American century will survive the rise of China Financial Times Subscription Required
Joseph Nye (FT) Mar 25, 2015
Entropy is a greater challenge than Chinese growth.

Europe crisis spurs corruption crackdown Financial Times Subscription Required
Tony Barber (FT) Mar 25, 2015
Voters struck by lack of jobs, debt and squeezed living standards are rejecting alleged political cheats.

QE will lower living standards long term Financial Times Subscription Required
Scott Minerd (FT) Mar 25, 2015
Prospect of improvement in growth is largely a monetary illusion.

An oligarch brought to heel Financial Times Subscription Required
Guy Chazan and Roman Olearchyk (FT) Mar 25, 2015
Kiev acts on fears that Igor Kolomoisky amassed too much power as a regional governor.

The Taper Tantrum Revisited
Michael Jarnard and Kevin Stahler (PIIE) Mar 25, 2015
It has been almost two years since the great "taper tantrum." In June 2013, financial markets interpreted statements by the chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke as suggesting that a tighter monetary policy was in the offing when that was apparently not his intention.

Guess What's Destroying the Middle Class?
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Mar 25, 2015
Of the three things cited for depressing U.S. middle-class wages -- robots, weakening unions and China -- only China matters.

Lee Kuan Yew's Bad Prescription for India
Chandrahas Choudhury (Bloomberg View) Mar 25, 2015
Indian democracy has many problems, but the widely held idea that the country has “too much democracy,” and needs a little splash of authoritarianism to knock it into shape, is a mistake.

Deescalating Europe’s Politics of Resentment
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2015
In 2010, Greece had no right to borrow from German – or any other European – taxpayers, while its public debt was unsustainable. Five years later, the consequences of that decision – open animosity toward and from Germany, a humanitarian crisis, and a mountain of unserviceable debt – could not be clearer.

Is Jobless Growth Inevitable?
Sami Mahroum and Elif Bascavusoglu-Moreau (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2015
As machines become smarter, the mutually reinforcing relationship between technological progress and human prosperity seems to be growing weaker. But some countries seem to have figured out how to sustain the old dynamic, ensuring that technological innovation benefits all.

Sustaining the Unsustainable Eurozone
Yannos Papantoniou (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2015
After years of crisis, European Union leaders must recover the capacity, displayed by the EU's founders, to look ahead. Specifically, they should introduce a mechanism for fiscal transfers from stronger to weaker economies.

Decision Time on Venezuela
Jorge G. Castañeda (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2015
For the last 15 years, major Latin American countries have largely ignored the crisis in Venezuela, refusing to condemn or support its leadership's incompetence and abuses. Now that President Barack Obama has decided to classify Venezuela formally as a “national security threat” to the US, this is about to change.

How income inequality benefits everybody
George F. Will (WP) Mar 25, 2015
Leaving wealth in the hands of the wealthy, an author argues, is the best way to benefit all Americans.

Lessons from the 1937-38 recession
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Mar 25, 2015
That slump ought to weigh heavily on the Fed as it ponders what to do next.

Towards a new Gold Standard?
Rebecca Harding (Pieria) Mar 25, 2015
China's behaviour suggests it is creating a new role for the yuan in world trade.

Confounded by China’s rise Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) Mar 26, 2015
British opportunism met with US fumbling.

Missteps that could cost Greece the euro Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Mar 26, 2015
Officials with little governing experience risk eroding their credibility.

The American century will survive the rise of China Financial Times Subscription Required
Joseph Nye (FT) Mar 26, 2015
Entropy is a greater challenge than Chinese growth.

Financial Times Subscription Required
Mar 26, 2015

Financial Times Subscription Required
Mar 26, 2015

Japan: Abe bids to end economic burden Financial Times Subscription Required
Lionel Barber, Robin Harding and Kana Inagaki (FT) Mar 26, 2015
Prime minister says Tokyo deserves more credit for its progress.

WTO Negotiations: New Papers Open Old Rifts on Food, Farming
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 11 Mar 26, 2015
New negotiating papers tabled last week have reopened old rifts on farm trade rules and food security at the WTO, trade sources have said.

TTIP: EU Officials Weigh ISDS Options as High-Level Meetings Continue
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 11 Mar 26, 2015
EU officials are now weighing potential ideas for addressing the controversial subject of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) in their trade talks with the US, with European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström holding meetings in recent weeks with both EU parliamentarians and trade ministers to present some preliminary ideas.

China’s Financial Paradoxes
John West (Globalist) Mar 26, 2015
China’s total debt is now greater than that of the United States, creating uncertainty about its future.

Who Holds Euro Assets? We Still Don't Know
Kent Troutman (PIIE) Mar 26, 2015
In a 2013 working paper, Aurel Schubert-the head of the Statistical Department at the European Central Bank (ECB)-and his coauthors wrote that: "Growing current account deficits, especially in the United States and some EU countries, have contrasted with large current account surpluses in some other EU countries, in the oil-exporting economies and in many East Asian economies, notably China.

The Real Singapore Model
Minxin Pei (Project Syndicate) Mar 27, 2015
The system that Lee Kuan Yew crafted during his 31 years as Prime Minister of Singapore is often mischaracterized as a one-party dictatorship superimposed on a free-market economy. But Lee's true genius was in using democratic institutions and the rule of law to curb the predatory appetite of his country's ruling elite.

Europe’s Easy-Money Endgame
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) Mar 26, 2015
Rescue packages have relieved the eurozone’s financial distress, but at a high cost. Not only have they enabled investors to avoid paying for their poor decisions; they have also allowed overpriced southern European countries to defer real depreciation, which is necessary to restore competitiveness.

Are Equities Overvalued?
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Mar 26, 2015
Since the global economic crisis, sharp divergences in economic performance have contributed to significant stock-market volatility. Now, stocks are reaching relatively high levels by conventional measures – and it is difficult to discern precisely why.

Latin America in the Second Machine Age
Luis Alberto Moreno (Project Syndicate) Mar 26, 2015
The Summit of the Americas in Panama City will focus on how to support inclusive growth in the Latin American and Caribbean economies, which have lately taken a major hit from falling commodities prices. Any strategy will have to boost the region's resilience to the next wave of automation.

How did the ECB save the Eurozone without spending a single euro?
Ana-Maria Fuertes, Elena Kalotychou and Orkun Saka (VoxEU) Mar 26, 2015
Recent debt crises have brought the fragility of the Eurozone into focus. It has been argued that members are vulnerable to sudden changes in market sentiment. This column examines how debt markets reacted to an ECB announcement that it would serve as a lender of last resort, finding that recent debt crises have strong self-fulfilling dynamics.

Latin America’s Real Corruption Crisis
Frank Vogl (Globalist) Mar 27, 2015
The outflows of illicit cash from Latin America are a staggering tax on its citizens.

Strong Dollar, Weakened World
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Mar 27, 2015
Emerging markets have borrowed a lot in dollars. Now those debts are getting harder to pay back.

Rally Round U.S. Treasuries
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Mar 27, 2015
The Fed won't be raising rates anytime soon, and that means Treasury prices are sure to rise.

Low Rates? Get Used to It
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Mar 27, 2015
Those who predicted a rise in interest rates in the past were wrong, and there's no reason to think rates will rise soon.

A Window on China’s New Normal
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Mar 27, 2015
At this year’s China Development Forum, virtually every official in attendance accepted that GDP growth will continue to slow. They now seem to understand that this will not fuel unemployment, because the slowdown reflects China’s structural shift from heavy industry to more employment-intensive consumer services.

Secular Stagnation for Free
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Mar 27, 2015
For some reason, achieving a level of investment that would generate full employment seems to require negative real interest rates, which is another way of saying that people have to be paid to invest. In fact, to harness the possibilities of new technology, we may need non-market forms of payment for valuable contributions.

What does China having the largest GDP mean?
Richard C. Bush III (Brookings) Mar 27, 2015
China will soon have the largest GDP in the world, but how will Chinese leaders manage their country’s growing economic clout?

Microeconomic origins of macroeconomic tail risks
Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi (VoxEU) Mar 27, 2015
Understanding large economic downturns is one of macroeconomics’ central goals. This column argues that imbalances in input-output linkages can interact with firm-level shocks to produce output fluctuations that are much larger than the underlying shocks. The result can be large cycles arising from small, firm-level shocks. It is thus important to study the determinants of large economic downturns separately. Macroeconomic tail risks may vary significantly even across economies that exhibit otherwise identical behaviour for moderate deviations.

The Blood Cries Out
Jillian Keenan (FP) Mar 27, 2015
In one of Africa’s most densely populated countries, brothers are killing brothers over the right to farm mere acres of earth. There’s just not enough land to go around in Burundi — and it could push the country into civil war.


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Why Sanctions on Russia Don’t Work
Andrei Kolesnikov (Project Syndicate) Mar 28, 2015
The Western approach to Russia assumes that continued pressure on the country will cause President Vladimir Putin's regime to make concessions or even crumble. But, as recent opinion polls suggest, such an approach is less likely to undermine the regime than to cause Russians to close ranks in Putin’s defense.

What’s an Industry?
Lucy P. Marcus (Project Syndicate) Mar 28, 2015
Once upon a time, analysts could easily categorize companies and tell the markets what they were worth, boards could oversee firms with a view to shareholders’ happiness, and all was right in the world. But that world is disappearing before our eyes.

China’s Credit Overdose
Zhang Jun (Project Syndicate ) Mar 28, 2015
Despite rapid credit expansion in the last two years, China's GDP growth has decelerated sharply. This disparity reflects the accumulation of massive debts, which require an ever-increasing amount of liquidity to service.

The myth of Europe’s Little Ice Age
Morgan Kelly & Cormac Ó Gráda (VoxEU) Mar 28, 2015
The Little Ice Age is generally seen as a major event in European history. Analysing a variety of recent weather reconstructions, this column finds that European weather appears constant from the Middle Ages until 1900, and that events like the freezing of the Thames and the disappearance of English vineyards have simpler explanations than changing climate. It appears instead that the European Little Ice Age is a statistical artefact, where the standard climatological practice of smoothing what turn out to be white noise data prior to analysis gives the spurious appearance of irregular oscillation – a Slutsky Effect.

The Glory Days of Private Equity Are Over Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Andy Kessler (WSJ) Mar 29, 2015
Too many funds are chasing too few opportunities, and many of those will be too expensive. It won’t end well.

Peru Is Chavismo’s Next American Target Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mary Anastasia O’Grady (WSJ) Mar 29, 2015
Corruption scandals give the left an opening in the 2016 presidential election.

Time to unpeg the renminbi
Guonan Ma (EAF/Bruegel) Mar 29, 2015
The Chinese economy is simply too big to remain tied to the once useful monetary anchor of the renminbi–US dollar peg. It is time to let it go.

Lee Kuan Yew and the Myth of Asian Capitalism
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Mar 29, 2015
A system of government cannot be good if it stakes everything on the emergence of a uniquely gifted individual.

Global Economy Is Now a Rorschach Test
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 29, 2015
Officials at the Bank of England have looked at the same economic evidence and produced three different monetary-policy prescriptions.

Stronger Dollar in a Weak Global Economy
NYT Mar 30, 2015
The world is still far too reliant on the United States, which itself has not yet fully recovered from the financial crisis.

Is asset management a systemic risk? Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Mar 30, 2015
Effective regulatory crackdown may come too late.

Technology will free us from bad banking Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Augar (FT) Mar 30, 2015
A ‘national grid’ would end the big banks’ control of infrastructure.

A continent enfeebled by economic crisis Financial Times Subscription Required
Tony Barber (FT) Mar 30, 2015
The EU’s 2003 document was a classic ‘soft power’ statement.

Russia looks to history for a new ideology Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrei Nekrasov (FT) Mar 30, 2015
Its nationalistic hue is supplied by what Russians see as an external threat.

German Pay Hike Counters Deflation in the Eurozone
Martin Hüfner (Globalist) Mar 30, 2015
By raising real wages, Germany has launched itself into a new period of growth.

Debt Could Derail China's Ambitions
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 30, 2015
Before asserting itself abroad, China needs to get its financial house in order.

Why the Sustainable Development Goals Matter
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2015
The Sustainable Development Goals will continue the fight begun by the Millennium Development Goals against extreme poverty, and add targets relating to inclusiveness and environmental sustainability. But will a new set of goals actually be able to catalyze a shift from business as usual to true sustainable development?

The Monetarist Mistake
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2015
The inadequate response to the Great Recession reflects policymakers' acceptance of Milton Friedman's analysis of the Great Depression. And yet the dominance of Friedman's monetarism has less to do with the evidence supporting it than with the fact that economics is all too often tainted by politics.

Last Chance for Ukraine and Europe
George Soros (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2015
Ukraine has reached a critical point in its survival struggle; but so, too, has the European Union. And the line beyond which all possible scenarios worsen – for Ukraine and the EU alike – may be just days or weeks away.

The Coming Emerging-Market Debt Squeeze
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2015
The emerging-market debt crises of the recent past could not only happen again today; they could happen on a much larger scale than in the past. Taking advantage of ultra-low interest rates in the advanced countries, emerging-market banks and firms have been borrowing like never before.

China’s New Normal and America’s Old Habits
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2015
China is generating a lot of confusion nowadays, both at home, where officials now tout the economy’s “new normal” but are unclear about what it is, and abroad, where the US is embracing “containment” of China’s rise. On both counts, the disconnects are striking, adding a new dimension of risk to a fragile world.

China and Global Governance
Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2015
The West has failed to accord China — much less the other major emerging economies — the degree of influence over global governance structures that it merits. But this is about to change, because China has decided that it will no longer sit still for it.

The door to China’s riches remains locked Financial Times Subscription Required
Tom Mitchell (FT) Mar 31, 2015
Western investors kept waiting in the courtyard of the energy, rail and telecoms sectors.

A mishap should not seal Greece’s fate Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 31, 2015
Accidental exit from the eurozone is quite likely — not because Greece or its partners want it.

It is financial crashes we should fear Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) Mar 31, 2015
Air travel is safe and its investigation process transparent — the contrast with finance could hardly be greater.

Shareholder value not short-term profit Financial Times Subscription Required
Dominic Barton and Mark Wiseman (FT) Mar 31, 2015
The biggest rewards should go to managers who think long-term.

Markets look forward to higher inflation Financial Times Subscription Required
Laurence Mutkin (FT) Mar 31, 2015
Three reasons why rising prices are expected despite current zero rates.

India: At the coalface Financial Times Subscription Required
James Crabtree (FT) Mar 31, 2015
Failure to boost energy supplies will hurt Modi’s goal of turning India into a manufacturing force.

Want to Reduce Inequality? Consult China, Vietnam and India
Edward P. Lazear (WSJ) Mar 31, 2015
In 1981, half of the developing world earned less than $1.25 daily. By 2011, the portion had dropped to 17%.

A World Remade by Fracking Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Holman Jenkins (WSJ) Mar 31, 2015
With storage tanks full, panickers have no place to hoard oil in response to Middle East fears.

Trans-Pacific Partnership treaty will help neither workers nor consumers
Katrina vanden Heuvel (WP) Mar 31, 2015
The rules are rigged in favor of the 1 percent.

When Should the IMF Make Exceptions? Part I
Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Mar 31, 2015
Ukraine won a reprieve from its economic and financial crisis on March 11, when the executive board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $17.5 billion economic and financial support program, invoking the Fund's policy of providing exceptional (abnormally large) access to IMF financial resources in extreme circumstances.

U.S. Opposition to Asian Bank Is Self-Destructive
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Mar 31, 2015
By joining the AIIB, the U.S. would increase the likelihood the bank would be designed as an efficient supplement to existing institutions, rather than a costly substitute.

Japan's Newest Export: Deflation
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 31, 2015
Japan's weak exchange rate is exporting deflation to the region. South Korea has been particularly hard hit.

U.S.'s Best Asian Friend Deserves a Trade Deal
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Mar 31, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal would help the U.S.'s most important Asian ally a lot.

How We Got to Contango
Stephen Mihm (Bloomberg View) Mar 31, 2015
Both contango and its doppelganger, backwardation, originated in Britain in the 19th century to describe futures trading.

Congratulations, China: You Won a Rhodes
Noah Feldman (Bloomberg View) Mar 31, 2015
Rhodes wanted to lessen hostility between Britain and a rising world power, Germany. Same idea with the West and China today.

Are Money Managers Lemmings?
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Mar 31, 2015
Regulators have discovered that professional investors run with the herd, inflating bubbles and making busts worse.

Being Old in 2040 Will Be No Fun
Martin Hutchinson (Globalist) Mar 31, 2015
Current trends in demographics and national budgets will leave the elderly of the future in dire straits.

Signs of Life in the Eurozone
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2015
The latest economic data from the eurozone suggest that recovery may finally be at hand. But a more robust and sustained upturn in job creation and income growth still faces a broad array of daunting challenges.

The Growth Conundrum
Laura Tyson and Jonathan Woetzel (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2015
While rapid economic growth, such as that realized over the past 50 years, is critical to support development, we now also know that it can have serious adverse consequences, particularly for the environment. How can we balance the imperatives of growth and development with the need to ensure sustainability?

Unnecessary Instability
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2015
The risks posed by larger public deficits have focused attention on “potential output growth,” a concept originally created by economists for economists. The concept's imprecision and volatility have weakened the EU’s fiscal pact, and Europe's leaders need to reconsider their approach.

Buhari’s second chance to boost Nigeria Financial Times Subscription Required
Tolu Ogunlesi (FT) Apr 1, 2015
Hopefully the history’s lessons will not be lost on the incoming president.

Round two in US bid for Asian influence Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Apr 1, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is just as likely to annoy America’s allies in region as reassure them.

ECB QE drives confidence for now Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Apr 1, 2015
Not everyone in the eurozone is enjoying a smooth ride.

Asia forum shows off China’s vigour Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 1, 2015
Asia forum shows off China’s vigour as its neighbours come to pay homage.

Emerging markets: The great unravelling Financial Times Subscription Required
James Kynge and Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Apr 1, 2015
Developing economies are suffering their biggest capital outflows since the financial crisis.

Europe’s Low Interest in Investment Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Apr 1, 2015
A study points to a lack of profit opportunities, not a lack of money.

When Should the IMF Make Exceptions? Part II
Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Apr 1, 2015
The current debate over the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exceptional access policy centers on a precedent that was establish in 2010 with respect to Greece. In May of that year, when the Greek program was presented to the executive board, the IMF staff stated that it considered Greece's debt to be sustainable, but the "significant uncertainties associated with that judgment make it difficult to state categorically that this is the case with a high probability" [emphasis added].

Chinese Cash Versus American Might
Noah Feldman (Bloomberg View) Apr 1, 2015
This is what Cool War looks like: Countries like Australia need China's trade but the U.S.'s protection.

China Isn't Ready for Creative Destruction
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 1, 2015
China's system of moral hazard won't be worth much until it passes far more ambitious financial reforms.

Europe’s Currency Manipulation
Stefan Kawalec (Project Syndicate) Apr 1, 2015
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, which the EU and the US currently are negotiating, would, studies say, boost welfare and reduce unemployment in the both economies, as well as in other countries. There is one major barrier to realizing these benefits: the euro.

Bernanke Says Global Imbalances Bedevil the World Economy. Discuss. New York Times Subscription Required
Josh Barro (NYT) Apr 2, 2015
Maybe the question we should ask is how we can make developing countries unafraid to borrow from us again and to buy more of our products

TPP, TPA Timeline in Focus Ahead of Japan PM's Visit to Washington
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 12 Apr 2, 2015
The next few weeks are expected to be crucial ones for the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks, as trade observers eye a planned trip by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to the US this month and a possible ministerial-level meeting of the TPP countries in May as opportunities for progress before the American election cycle kicks into high gear.

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Draws Broad Interest as Initial Application Deadline Passes
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 12 Apr 2, 2015
The new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has drawn over 40 requests from countries interested in becoming prospective founding members, Chinese officials confirmed this week, following the close of the initial application deadline this Tuesday.

UN Post-2015 Talks Focus on Draft Sustainable Development Goals
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 12 Apr 2, 2015
Divisions on how best to finalise a set of sustainable development goals (SDGs) moved to the fore last week during a New York meeting of delegates charged with hammering out a post-2015 development agenda.

Mr. Tspiras Tries to Blackmail Europe
Alexander Marguier (Globalist) Apr 2, 2015
Now Greece acts as Putin’s and Russia’s Trojan horse.

What Greece Needs Now From Tsipras
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Apr 2, 2015
Germany and France and the art of correcting erroneous economic policies.

Modi Needs a Farm Fix
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Apr 2, 2015
Half the population is being left behind.

The Global Obesity Threat
Richard Dobbs and Boyd Swinburn (Project Syndicate) Apr 2, 2015
The global obesity epidemic is not just a pressing health concern; it is also a threat to the world economy. The total economic impact of obesity is about $2 trillion a year, or 2.8% of world GDP – roughly equivalent to the damage caused by smoking or armed violence, war, and terrorism.

In Defense of Angela Merkel
Bernard-Henri Lévy (Project Syndicate) Apr 2, 2015
All over Europe, right-wing and left-wing protesters alike have been invoking Germany's Nazi past to criticize the policies of its current chancellor. The problem with this Germanophobia is not simply that it is stupid, or that it further erodes Europe; the real problem is that it strengthens Europe's genuine fascists.

Ten Trends That Could Shake Global Policy Thinking
David B. Dewitt and Hayley Avery (CIGI) Apr 2, 2015
Ten major global challenges are expected to drive international governance policy research over the next five years, a broad consultation with stakeholders indicates.

Capital control measures: A new dataset
Andrés Fernández, Michael W Klein, Alessandro Rebucci, Martin Schindler and Martín Uribe (VoxEU) Apr 2, 2015
A renewed interest in capital controls following the Great Recession requires a serious empirical reconsideration of their effectiveness as policy instruments. This column introduces a new dataset that features unprecedented levels of disaggregation between asset categories, and distinguishes transactions between residents and non-residents. The ensuing debate should take note.

Jobs Report Adds to Evidence of a Slowing Economy New York Times Subscription Required
Justin Wolfers (NYT) Apr 3, 2015
On average, economic data released so far through 2015 has tended to be worse than expected.

Brazil's Inertial GDP
Monica de Bolle (PIIE/O Estado de São Paulo) Apr 3, 2015
"Inertia," a widespread term among physicists and economists, is the state of immobility that may characterize an object. Applied to inflation, it means the tendency of prices to remain high, even if the government is actively engaged in bringing them down. Brazil has suffered from greater inflationary inertia in the past than current evidence would suggest. However, domestic prices continue to be stubbornly inert. Part of the reason is that informal indexation mechanisms still prevail as defense strategies against the country's longstanding foe. Adding insult to injury, in recent years the Brazilian government reintroduced perilous formal indexation mechanisms that increase price resistance—backward-looking rules for minimum wage adjustment are an example of this.

Rethinking Emerging Markets
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 3, 2015
The emerging markets have grown markedly since their relatively modest beginnings, and they now contain far too much diversity to meet the requirement of shared characteristics.

The Solar Price Revolution
Klaus Töpfer (Project Syndicate) Apr 3, 2015
We should not underestimate the tremendous potential of renewable energy to build global wealth and fight poverty. As solar power becomes increasingly cost-effective, putting in place policies to favor its adoption will drive economic development and help fight climate change.

Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation
Stefano Giglio, Bryan T. Kelly & Seth Pruitt (VoxEU) Apr 3, 2015
An important research question is whether the current measures of systemic risk are useful for policymakers. This column presents new evidence on this topic. The relevance of a measure depends on how informative it is regarding how financial distress translates into real macroeconomic outcomes. The findings indicate that few systemic risk measures predict macroeconomic shocks. Interestingly, the relationship between systematic risk and future macroeconomic shocks is not symmetric.

The Rescue of Brazil
Angel Ubide (PIIE/El Pais) Apr 4, 2015
The Brazilian economy has all the characteristics of a country under the tutelage of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. The list of its economic imbalances is endless: a rampant current account deficit in excess of 4 percent of GDP, an exchange rate that has long been overvalued but that has collapsed in just a few months, a public debt ratio to GDP in a rapid upward trend, a fiscal deficit of over 6 percent of GDP despite a high tax burden, an annual inflation rate of nearly 8 percent that has unanchored inflation expectations, an accelerated growth of wages well above their very low productivity.

Asian Values RIP
Ian Buruma (Project Syndicate) Apr 4, 2015
Few politicians have garnered as many effusive public tributes after their death as Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s founder and former prime minister. But Lee was hardly alone in advocating capitalism with an iron fist, so why has he – rather than, say, Augusto Pinochet – been praised by everyone from Barack Obama to Vladimir Putin?

Unsecured firm debt and the business cycle
Costas Azariadis, Leo Kaas and Yi Wen (VoxEU) Apr 4, 2015
A large literature in macroeconomics shows how credit market shocks can propagate through deterioration in the value of collateral. This column decomposes debt into secured and unsecured components and investigates their effects separately. While secured debt is acyclical, unsecured debt is confirmed to predict GDP movements in accordance with the standard financial accelerator mechanism.

Appetite for oil yet to be tested fully Financial Times Subscription Required
Ed Crooks (FT) Apr 5, 2015
Sector has held up in times of easy money but can it last?

Poland: Barriers to business Financial Times Subscription Required
Henry Foy (FT) Apr 5, 2015
With a string of legal disputes heading for the courts is Warsaw’s open-door policy towards foreign investment in reverse?

Time US woke up to new economic era Financial Times Subscription Required
Lawrence Summers (FT) Apr 5, 2015
Failure of strategy and tactics was a long time coming and it should lead to a comprehensive review.

Tsipras will not find salvation in Moscow Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Apr 5, 2015
Putin will be aware how many billions of euros eurozone members have sunk into Greece.

China Steps Back New York Times Subscription Required
Ho-Fung Hung (NYT) Apr 5, 2015
Beijing's new investment bank isn't an attempt at world domination. Rather, it's a concession that China's aggressive bilateral initiatives are backfiring.

Economics and Elections New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Apr 5, 2015
What mainly matters is income growth immediately before a vote. Can anything be done about this weakness?

Greece Should Be Wary of Mr. Putin New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Apr 6, 2015
It might be tempting, but Greece cannot count on Russia to ride to its financial rescue.

A glimpse into a future of UK deflation Financial Times Subscription Required
Diane Coyle (FT) Apr 6, 2015
A quick and politically painless way to reduce debt is a bout of fast-rising prices.

China strikes it lucky over new bank Financial Times Subscription Required
Tom Mitchell (FT) Apr 6, 2015
AIIB success is the result of a clever strategy shift by Beijing.

Eleven Negative Surprises in the Euro Area
Jan Zilinsky (PIIE) Apr 6, 2015
In 11 cases, the European Economic Forecasts from February 2014 had anticipated higher growth rates for euro area members than actually materialized. Although last year's GDP data is still either estimated or provisional for five euro area economies (Cyprus, Portugal, Greece, Spain, and the Netherlands), several surprises stand out: Italy, Austria, and Latvia all failed to achieve their expected growth by 1 percentage point or more.

Greece's Damaging Impasse
Angel Ubide (PIIE) Apr 6, 2015
Since the elections in Greece were announced last fall, and especially after the installation of the Syriza-led government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, the Greek saga has developed along expected lines. The incipient recovery that Greece was experiencing last year has ground to a halt and turned into what is very likely a new recession. The rhetoric out of Athens and Syriza’s confrontation with its European partners have scared the private sector and triggered a massive capital outflow. Greece has decoupled from the recent improvement in euro area activity, as the divergent evolution of the Purchasing Managers Index shows.

How many billionaires are there in the world?
Globalist Apr 6, 2015
Stunning facts about the world’s wealthiest people.

US Allies Join China's AIIB: What Now?
Ellen Bork (Democracy Road) Apr 6, 2015
US policy has sent so many mixed signals on Chinese aggression that it’s no surprise American allies have broken with Washington over Beijing’s new bank.

Greece’s Worst Option: IMF Default
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 6, 2015
Greece has to make a $500 million payment to the IMF by April 9. It is hard to imagine any outcome that would improve the country's lot.

Bitcoin and Market Crashes
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Apr 6, 2015
Big market movements might be predictable after all.

Banks Need Capital, Not Complexity
Bloomberg View Apr 6, 2015
In regulating banks, it's best to keep it simple.

For Energy Security, Export Oil
Bloomberg View Apr 6, 2015
American mythology about energy independence hurts the economy by keeping oil producers from selling crude overseas.

Will China’s Infrastructure Bank Work?
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Apr 6, 2015
With China's creation of the new $50 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, most of the debate has centered on the futile US effort to discourage other advanced economies from joining. Bu the real question is why multilateral development lending has so often failed, and what might be done to make it work better.

Capital flows and domestic and international order: Trilemmas from macroeconomics to political economy and international relations
Michael Bordo & Harold James (VoxEU) Apr 6, 2015
The classic exchange rate trilemma presented a formulation for analysing the trade-offs between the incompatible macroeconomic goals of capital mobility and monetary autonomy within a fixed exchange rate regime. This column shows how policy trilemma analysis can be extended to other domains, specifically financial stability, political economy, and international relations. It argues that analysing these trade-offs can help to identify policy options that balance macroeconomic objectives and political realities in the face of globalisation.

Have Long-Term Inflation Expectations Declined?
Fernanda Nechio (FRBSF Economic Letter) Apr 6, 2015
Based on surveys of professional forecasters, expectations for price inflation 5 to 10 years ahead have edged down over the past few years. This decline seems to be primarily driven by revised expectations from forecasters who overestimated inflation in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Currently, the median survey-based expectation for long-term inflation is close to its pre-recession level and appears well anchored at the Fed’s 2% longer-run inflation objective.

Emerging market banks face tough challenge Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 7, 2015
Slowdown in loan growth could lead to better credit allocation.

China will struggle to keep its momentum Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Apr 7, 2015
As the economy slows, the demand for investment is likely to fall more than proportionately.

US impatience with submissive Europe Financial Times Subscription Required
Robert Kaplan (FT) Apr 7, 2015
Why should Washington defend a continent that will not defend itself.

Today’s luxury is tomorrow’s normality Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrew McAfee (FT) Apr 7, 2015
Tech progress makes initially expensive things cheaper, so hastens their spread.

Reforms needed to lift Japan’s economy Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 7, 2015
Two years of Abenomics has boosted little more than asset prices.

Misinterpretations of New Data on International Reserves
Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Apr 7, 2015
The posting by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of the latest data on the currency composition of international reserves (COFER) as of the end of 2014 brought some overheated reactions by investment banks and the media. J.P. Morgan, for example, focused on what it said was the euro allocation hitting the lowest level since 2002 while the US dollar share climbed to the highest since 2009.

Greece Brightens, Brazil Darkens
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Apr 7, 2015
The tale of two economies shows how Greece gains from the European Union as Brazil suffers from being alone.

How Not to Deal With China
Bloomberg View Apr 7, 2015
The worst thing is to oppose China's ambitions and then fail.

Creative Self-Disruption
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Apr 7, 2015
Companies like Uber, Apple, and Airbnb have succeeded by exploiting a fundamental trend affecting nearly all industries: individual empowerment through the Internet, app technology, digitalization, and social media. If traditional firms hope to remain competitive, they must follow suit.

Regulate the Carry Trade
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Apr 7, 2015
When the global financial crisis occurred, exchange rates were the least interesting part of the macroeconomic debate, causing a 2011 French proposal for a sweeping reform of the international monetary regime to go nowhere. Today, they are the focus of intense anxiety, which is being fueled by one financial practice in particular.

China’s Not-So-New Not-So-Normal
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Apr 7, 2015
During a recent speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping described what he calls the Chinese economy's “new normal" of slower growth, following three decades of double-digit expansion. But, though China is unlikely to continue on a path of double-digit growth, there is little about its economy that can be considered normal.

Lower Potential Growth: A New Reality Recommended!
IMF Survey Apr 7, 2015
Since the onset of the global financial crisis, many economies have faced lower growth in their productive capacity, which may slow the rise of living standards in the future, according to a new study by the IMF.

Naked truth about negative lending Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Milne (FT) Apr 8, 2015
Concerns grow over whether extremely low interest rates will fuel housing bubbles.

Currency wars: is the US the new victim? Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrew Balls (FT) Apr 8, 2015
Dollar strength reflects global policy divergence, not direct intervention.

Greece can replace stalemate with sanity Financial Times Subscription Required
Reza Moghadam (FT) Apr 8, 2015
If Athens cannot deliver critical reforms, it better leave the eurozone.

China: Projections of power Financial Times Subscription Required
Charles Clover (FT) Apr 8, 2015
Beijing’s double-digit increases in defence spending have alarmed neighbours but budgets and troop levels are only half the story.

The investment bust (explained)
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Apr 8, 2015
One of the great disappointments of the weak economic recovery has been the sluggish revival of business investment.

The Case for Letting Greece Go Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Apr 8, 2015
The risk now is political contagion from rewarding non-reform.

How the New AIIB Dwarfs the Asian Development Bank
Helmut Reisen (Globalist) Apr 8, 2015
China is well on its way to building a Sino-centric global financial system.

Cryptocurrency Exchanges Emerge as Regulators Try to Keep Up
Larry Greenemeier (SciAm) Apr 8, 2015
Trust issues plague bitcoin and other digital currencies. Licensed exchanges could change that

Clean Energy Revolution Is Ahead of Schedule
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 8, 2015
Clean energy production and power storage is getting more efficient and cheaper, closing the gap with fossil fuels.

Feckless Europe Kowtows to China
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Apr 8, 2015
For many years yet, the U.S. will be the world's pre-eminent power. A Europe intent on disarming itself had better pray this state of affairs continues.

The Secret of Singapore’s Success
Stavros N. Yiannouka (Project Syndicate) Apr 8, 2015
Lee Kuan Yew’s achievements have been the subject of much global discussion since his recent death. But one aspect of his success has been little mentioned: the investments that he, and his successors, made in education.

The Case for Turkey in Europe
Volkan Bozkir (Project Syndicate) Apr 8, 2015
In the midst of a tumultuous region, Turkey represents an island of peace, democracy, security, and stability. As efforts to restart accession talks between Turkey and the European Union move forward, negotiators should bear in mind the country's political and economic progress.

International Banking Safer Since Crisis
IMF Survey Apr 8, 2015
Banks have cut cross-border lending and rely more on local lending by subsidiaries. This makes financial systems in host countries safer, and should promote stable international banking.

Plain Vanilla Investment Funds Can Pose Risks
IMF Survey Apr 8, 2015
The asset management industry plays a rising role in financial system. This role has benefits and risks for financial stability, so more “hands on” supervision is needed, with better data and oversight.

Demographic Structure and the Macroeconomy
Yunus Aksoy and Henrique Basso (VoxEU) Apr 8, 2015
The disappointing recovery after the crisis has sparked renewed interest in the medium-run outlook of advanced economies. Lower population growth and its impact on labour supply gained widespread prominence. This column takes a more general view identifying the impact of the evolution of demographic structure, or the entire age profile, on the macroeconomy. Age profile changes have significant implications for savings, investment and growth but also affect innovation activities. The population aging predicted for the next decades is found to be a significant factor in reducing output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries.

Lagarde: Prevent “New Mediocre” From Becoming “New Reality”
IMF Survey Apr 9, 2015
To prevent a period of protracted low growth from taking hold, policymakers should work together to pick up the pace of the recovery and create more growth now and in the future, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a speech at the Atlantic Council on April 9.

Corporate cash cows trim investment bulls Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Apr 9, 2015
Concern grows at lack of corporate capital expenditure in QE era.

La Caixa: Spain’s quiet powerhouse Financial Times Subscription Required
Tobias Buck (FT) Apr 9, 2015
Little-known abroad but hugely influential at home, the Catalan group has emerged from Spain’s financial crisis better than most.

Brazilian Sclerosis
Monica de Bolle (PIIE/Folha de São Paulo) Apr 9, 2015
The evidence suggests that Brazilian investment is sclerotic, like European unemployment during the 1980s and 1990s. According to the latest data, Brazilian investment rates over the last 20 years have barely budged from 19 percent of GDP.

India's Missing Investors
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Apr 9, 2015
The country's stock rally is relying too much on foreigners.

An Open Letter to the Eurozone
Harley Bassman (PIMCO) Apr 9, 2015
Greater asset/liability management flexibility could potentially enable managers to earn a return closer to the true cost of their liabilities, and it could also increase asset velocity to enable QE to be as effective in the eurozone as it has been in both the U.S. and Japan.

China’s Slow-Growth Opportunity
Yu Yongding (Project Syndicate) Apr 9, 2015
After four disappointing years, Chinese economists have come to understand that the economy’s growth slowdown is structural, rather than cyclical, meaning that China’s potential growth rate has settled onto a significantly lower plateau. But this may not be bad news.

Why Social Progress Matters
Michael Porter (Project Syndicate) Apr 9, 2015
Economic growth has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and improved the lives of many more over the last half-century. Yet it is increasingly evident that a model of human development based on economic progress alone is incomplete.

The Eurozone’s False Recovery
Philippe Legrain (Project Syndicate) Apr 9, 2015
At first glance, the eurozone economy seems like it might finally be on the mend. On closer inspection, however, recent improvements turn out to be modest and probably temporary, casting further doubt on the prevailing policy agenda of fiscal consolidation and structural reform.

Nations Line Up to Join China-Led Infrastructure Bank
Will Hickey (YaleGlobal) Apr 9, 2015
China’s AIIB could be source of sour grapes or valid concerns on standards for US and Japan

QE, ‘European style’: Be bold but parsimonious
Urszula Szczerbowicz & Natacha Valla (VoxEU) Apr 9, 2015
Sovereign bonds are the latest and biggest quantitative easing (QE) policy conducted by the Eurozone. This column argues that instead of sovereign bonds, the Eurozone should focus on assets that are the closest to job-creating, growth-enhancing, and innovation-promoting activities. In particular, instruments issued by agencies and European institutions should be given a prominent role. But they should also be selected to promote the financing of long-term growth and jobs, not of unsustainable government expenditure.

Too Much Untapped Potential to Buy into the Secular Stagnation Argument
PIIE Apr 10, 2015
Ben Bernanke has joined Lawrence Summers in debating whether the US and other major world economies are in a period of secular stagnation, where a chronic shortfall in demand is causing and will continue to cause low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates.

Will Iran Become a Successful Emerging Market?
David Hale (Globalist) Apr 10, 2015
If the nuclear deal with Iran succeeds, the world will see a great shift in geopolitics and economic growth.

Could fixing the old crisis make the next crisis more painful?
Brian Caplen (Banker) Apr 10, 2015
Regulators have spent the past few years ensuring that a repeat of the last crisis will not happen. However, as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has highlighted in a letter to shareholders, these actions could only be serving to worsen the effects of the next crisis. He may have a point.

Latin America Will Tackle Corruption Later
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Apr 10, 2015
At the Summit of the Americas, there's an invisible elephant in the room.

GE Doesn't Want to Be a Big Bank Anymore
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Apr 10, 2015
This is a great time to start a non-bank financial company, but not a great time to already have a big one.

Citizens for a Clean Economy
Monica Araya (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2015
Over the past 20 years, environmental policies have been decided behind closed doors – with little input from the people who will be most affected by the negotiations. The good news is that a new pattern of citizen participation is emerging, especially in developing countries, as new voices and fresh ideas enter the debate.

American Leadership in a Multipolar World
Paola Subacchi (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2015
The US, like many aging celebrities, is struggling to share the stage with new faces, especially China. The upcoming meetings of the IMF and the World Bank – two institutions dominated by the US and its Western allies – provide an ideal opportunity to change that.

Money for Nothing
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2015
With interest rates close to zero throughout the eurozone – and expected to remain low for quite some time – debt-service has become a lot easier, even for countries like Greece and Spain. As a result, the Maastricht Treaty’s cap on public debt – and the "fiscal compact" adopted to reinforce it – is meaningless.

Making the Most of More Aid
Ángel Gurría and Erik Solheim (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2015
In 2014, for the second consecutive year, official development assistance reached a historic high. But such spending could have a substantially greater impact if it were used to mobilize domestic tax flows and private investment in aid-dependent countries.

Unsafe and Unsound Banks New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Apr 11, 2015
The banks should hold enough capital to make bailouts unnecessary.

Andy Warhol as a Guide to Trade New York Times Subscription Required
Arthur C. Brooks (NYT) Apr 11, 2015
Look to the simple solution to fight poverty.

The euro-zone revival: Don’t get europhoric Economist Subscription Required
Economist Apr 11, 2015
Investors are becoming excited about Europe again---too excited.

Should we be spooked by deflation? A look at the historical record
Claudio Borio, Magdalena Erdem, Andrew Filardo and Boris Hofmann (VoxEU) Apr 11, 2015
Concerns about deflation – falling prices of goods and services – are rooted in the view that it is very costly. This column tests the historical link between output growth and deflation in a sample covering 140 years for up to 38 economies. The evidence suggests that this link is weak and derives largely from the Great Depression. The authors find a stronger link between output growth and asset price deflations, particularly during postwar property price deflations. There is no evidence that high debt has so far raised the cost of goods and services price deflations, in so-called debt deflations. The most damaging interaction appears to be between property price deflations and private debt.

Macroeconomists need new tools to challenge consensus Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Apr 12, 2015
For the moment, the traditionalists still rule.

Japan needs a working hours overhaul Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Apr 12, 2015
The corporate culture the country is stuck with is unsuited to the challenges companies face.

Shell’s move just a start for energy sector Financial Times Subscription Required
Nick Butler (FT) Apr 12, 2015
The merger could lead to wider consolidation in oil and gas.

EM outflows raise heat on fund managers Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Ford (FT) Apr 12, 2015
Sudden change in conditions in developing world has exposed strikingly aggressive positions.

European M&A will test soaring dollar Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Apr 12, 2015
Bankers in the City of London sound more upbeat than they have for years.

Why Europe Needs to Save Greece
Anders Borg (Project Syndicate) Apr 12, 2015
The Greeks, it can be argued, have not earned the right to be saved, but Greece's exit from the euro is not the best option for the country or for the European Union. Whether or not the Greeks are deserving of assistance, it is in Europe's interest to help them.

A new age of Chinese growth
Cai Fang and Lu Yang (EAF) Apr 12, 2015
Productivity, not reproductivity, offers real potential for sustaining Chinese growth.

Lessons from the 1982 Mexican Debt Crisis for Greece
Carlos Cantú, KeyYong Park & Aaron Tornell (VoxEU) Apr 12, 2015
The wisdom of structural reform during a crisis is a subject of heated debate. This column compares Greece’s experience to that of Mexico during the debt crisis of the 1980s. Mexico did not receive a haircut until seven years into the crisis – after structural reform was already underway. In Mexico that reform was the outcome of an internal conversation – not a diktat from the outside – and it happened during the height of the crisis.

GE Capital tells a cautionary tale Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Apr 13, 2015
Unit’s history is a warning against getting too big.

China will react if US weaponises trade Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Levi (FT) Apr 13, 2015
Do not pitch TPP as the economic counterpart to a military strategy.

World does not hear west’s deaf prophets Financial Times Subscription Required
Mark Mazower (FT) Apr 13, 2015
Europe and the US have been convinced of their own truths for too long.

How to invest for renewed dollar strength Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Apr 12, 2015
Benign influence on global rebalancing or financial nuisance?

Biotech: Making sense of the science Financial Times Subscription Required
David Crow (FT) Apr 13, 2015
As big pharma bets huge sums on the next breakthrough drugs, some investors fear another bubble.

The Fed Can Be Patient About Raising Interest Rates Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Apr 13, 2015
Core inflation has been stuck between 1.3% and 1.7% since mid-2012, and isn’t forecast to reach 2% until 2017.

China’s Best Bet: Doubling Down on Reform, Not Stimulus
Henry M. Paulson Jr (WSJ) Apr 13, 2015
Slowing growth isn’t a sign of disaster, but it also can’t be cured by pumping money. What’s needed is freedom.

Asian Stocks Get All Bubbly
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 13, 2015
This already seems to be the year of the Asian stock bubble.

Yes, Worry About the Stock Market
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 13, 2015
The U.S. economy is doing well and stocks globally are surging, and that's making legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller nervous.

Asia’s Multilateralism
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Apr 13, 2015
In March, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Italy joined more than 30 other countries as founding members of the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which will do what existing institutional arrangements cannot: help Asia meet its massive infrastructure needs. So why has the US sought to undermine the effort?

Optimising the Eurozone
Frances Coppola (Pieria) Apr 13, 2015
It is often said that the Eurozone's unemployment problem arises from the fact that it is not an optimum currency area. But the real problem is Eurozone governance

Expect Further Divergence in Emerging Market Economies
Michael A. Gomez and Lupin Rahman (PIMCO) Apr 13, 2015
Our baseline for Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico overall is growth of 1.5%-2.5% year-over-year through first-quarter 2016, with negative output gaps for Brazil and Russia in particular. Our baseline is that EM as a whole is likely to be able to weather a gradual and predictable Fed exit, but that there may be volatility and accidents along the way. We are focusing on select opportunities across countries, credits and markets.

Optimal Policy and Market-Based Expectations
Michael D. Bauer and Glenn D. Rudebusch (FRBSF Econ Letter) Apr 13, 2015
Financial market prices contain valuable information about investors’ views regarding future interest rates, inflation, and other economic variables. However, such market-based expectations can be hard to interpret because changes in risk and liquidity premiums also affect asset prices. In practice, policymakers should be cautious in relying on the expectations information in market prices.

Economic future that may never brighten Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Apr 14, 2015
The decline in potential growth leads to debate about the savings glut and secular stagnation.

Europe’s debtor paradise will end in tears Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Apr 14, 2015
Nasty surprises lurk for those who have embraced negative yields.

The long arm of India’s tax authorities Financial Times Subscription Required
James Crabtree (FT) Apr 14, 2015
Global fund managers are the latest to be hit by unexpected demands.

Bitcoin, Blockchain and the Technology Revolution
Jeffrey Kutler (II) Apr 14, 2015
Today’s cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology are but early inklings of a coming wave of innovation.

Uneven Global Recovery, Complex Underlying Currents
IMF Survey Apr 14, 2015
Global growth prospects are uneven across major economies, says the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). In advanced economies, growth is projected to strengthen in 2015 relative to 2014, but in emerging market and developing economies it is expected to be weaker.

Can We Blame the Fed for Asset Bubbles?
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Apr 14, 2015
Two bubbles in a row is troublesome. If we’re indeed in a third, that starts looking more like a trend -- and not a good one.

Hong Kong's Peg to Instability
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 14, 2015
Hong Kong's peg to the U.S. dollar has outlived its usefulness.

The Challenge of Russia’s Decline
Joseph S. Nye (Project Syndicate) Apr 14, 2015
Russia is in long-term decline, but it still poses a very real threat to the international order in Europe and beyond. Indeed, Russia’s malaise may make it even more dangerous, given the tendency of declining states to become less risk-averse.

Europe’s Poisoned Chalice of Growth
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Apr 14, 2015
After a double-dip recession and an extended period of stagnation, the eurozone is finally seeing green shoots of recovery, with the European Commission forecasting 1.3% growth this year. But, though that is not bad by European standards, it could be very bad for European reform.

The Harm of Regulatory Disharmony
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Apr 14, 2015
Among the institutions regulating global financial markets, the Financial Markets Law Committee is not very prominent. But its mission – to identify and propose solutions to issues of legal uncertainty in financial markets that might create risks in the future – has never been more important.

Russia's Turbulence Could Drive Sustainable Development
Anastasia Okorochkova (YaleGlobal) Apr 14, 2015
Hard times combined with falling oil prices could encourage Russia to lead in sustainability.

What’s Up With You? New York Times Subscription Required
Thomas L. Friedman (NYT) Apr 15, 2015
The United States and China are now totally intertwined.

Pro-Europeans need to woo ‘anxious middle’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Hugo Dixon (FT) Apr 15, 2015
Migrants bring benefits but it is not enough to celebrate that.

Interview: Li on China’s challenges Financial Times Subscription Required
Lionel Barber, David Pilling and Jamil Anderlini (FT) Apr 15, 2015
The premier says Beijing is willing to ‘work with others’ to boost the global economy.

Now Is the Time! Use Fiscal Policy to Support Sustainable Growth
IMF Survey Apr 15, 2015
In the global context of a moderate and uneven economic recovery, sound management of public finances can secure elusive growth and jobs.

Financial Risks Rise, Rotate
IMF Survey Apr 15, 2015
Global financial stability risks have risen since October 2014, and have rotated to parts of the financial system where they are harder to assess and harder to address, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest Global Financial Stability Report.

Diversity among Advanced Economies in Rebounding from Crisis
Paolo Mauro and Jan Zilinsky (PIIE) Apr 15, 2015
Newly released projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook highlight the diversity of experiences among advanced economies in rebounding from the crisis. Although most economies (including all economies shown in this blog post) are projected to return to positive growth this year and the next, differences in GDP levels and growth rates since the beginning of the crisis far exceed differences in economic performance observed prior to the crisis.

China at the Crossroads
Stephan S. Roach (Globalist) Apr 15, 2015
By continuing its economic rebalancing, China could increase the scale of its economy by trillions of dollars.

Understanding Draghi
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2015
The euro zone has traveled the first third of the quantitative easing journey. The remaining two-thirds will be much harder.

Greece Is Running Out of Money, and Time
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2015
The endgame for the Greek drama seems just a little more than a week away.

Fighting the Bubble in Bubbles
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2015
Yes, investment bubbles happen, but not nearly as often as people say they do.

The Case Against Secular Stagnation
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2015
The evidence that the U.S. economy suffers from secular stagnation is weak.

Why China's Numbers Are Worse Than They Seem
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2015
There's a good chance additional stimulus won't help this time.

IMF Preaches to the Choir
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2015
Don’t expect this week’s meetings to produce consequential policy breakthroughs. Instead, we are likely to get more of the same -- interesting conversation and broad expressions of concern, with few concrete follow-up actions that would make the global economy materially better.

How to Reform the IMF Now
Paulo Nogueira Batista and HEctor R. Torres (Project Syndicate) Apr 15, 2015
Reforms that would double the IMF's resources and reorganize its governing structure in favor of developing countries have been held up in the US Congress for more than four years. The best way forward would be to decouple the part of the reforms that requires ratification by the US Congress from the rest of the package.

Sustainable Energy Now
Anita George (Project Syndicate) Apr 15, 2015
Renewable energy from the wind and sun is becoming competitive with fossil-fuel-based power generation, and oil prices are hitting lows not seen for years. These developments put us at the edge of a global energy transformation – as long as we get the next steps right.

US and China: rivals with common cause Financial Times Subscription Required
Kevin Rudd (FT) Apr 16, 2015
The future of the relationship is not predetermined but for the leaders to shape.

A ‘flash crash’ or two gives needed jolt Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Apr 16, 2015
Too much volatility is harmful but too little and behaviour will not change.

World Bank: Stress test Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Apr 16, 2015
Facing increasing competition and beset by criticism, what next for the institution?

State Capitalism by Stealth, the New 21st Century Economic Reality
Douglas A. Rediker (PIIE/FT) Apr 16, 2015
Geoeconomics was defined by its intellectual godfather, Edward Luttwak, as a contest defined by the grammar of commerce but the logic of war. Today, one of the most pernicious tools in this global contest is the evolving role of government in a market economy.

A Lift for Free Trade Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Apr 16, 2015
The Hatch-Wyden compromise deserves Congress’s approval.

Lift Tomorrow’s Growth For Better Economic Future—Lagarde
IMF Survey Apr 16, 2015
Current global growth is not enough to cut high unemployment, bolster middle-class incomes, and cut poverty, IMF chief Christine Lagarde tells a Washington news conference. She calls for lifting today’s growth, lifting tomorrow’s growth, and working together.

Can Iceland Save the World?
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Apr 16, 2015
Iceland's way to solve the current(!) global financial crisis.

Expect Further Divergence in Emerging Market Economies
Michael A. Gomez and Lupin Rahman (PIMCO) Apr 16, 2015
Our baseline for Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico overall is growth of 1.5%-2.5% year-over-year through first-quarter 2016, with negative output gaps for Brazil and Russia in particular. Our baseline is that EM as a whole is likely to be able to weather a gradual and predictable Fed exit, but that there may be volatility and accidents along the way. We are focusing on select opportunities across countries, credits and markets.

European Union Divided Over Greek Bailout
Chris Miller (YaleGlobal) Apr 16, 2015
Stalemate on Greece: Fearing voters’ wrath, European leaders lack courage for a deal on austerity and bailouts

The Creative State
Mariana Mazzucato (Project Syndicate) Apr 16, 2015
The conventional view in mainstream economics is that governments have little capacity to spark innovation.The truth is that in some of the world's most famous technological hubs, including Silicon Valley and Israel, the state has played a critical role in creating and shaping markets for new products.

Some unintended consequences of QE
Keith Wade (Pieria) Apr 16, 2015
Although the well-trailed announcement by the European Central Bank of a QE programme has been greeted with enthusiasm we would caution that investors should be careful what they wish for.

Investors Are Worried About Turkey’s Economic Outlook
Georgina Hurst (II) Apr 16, 2015
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s power play is slowing the country’s momentum towards economic reform.

At Global Economic Gathering, U.S. Primacy Is Seen as Ebbing New York Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Weisman (NYT) Apr 17, 2015
Economists and political leaders see an American government so bitterly divided that it is on the verge of deserting the global economic stage it has commanded since the end of World War II.

Russia's Bond: It's Official! (... and Private ... and Anything Else It Wants to Be ...)
Anna Gelpern (PIIE) Apr 17, 2015
Ukraine's bond restructuring talks are in high gear, and, as ever, Russia is the trouble du jour. Not only is it threatening to hold out in the bond deal and take Ukraine to arbitration, Russia also seems poised to block International Monetary Fund (IMF) disbursements to Ukraine using an arcane Fund policy on "lending into arrears." My hunch is that this last risk is overblown, and in any event should not drive IMF policy or Ukraine's restructuring strategy.

Ukraine's Bond Restructuring: Surgery, Conspiracy, and Campaign
Anna Gelpern (PIIE) Apr 17, 2015
Debt restructuring is the second largest source of outside financing for Ukraine's new International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. The Fund itself brings $17.5 billion over four years; $9.6 billion comes from governments and other multilaterals (including Europe, the United States, and most recently, China), leaving $15.3 billion for the "debt operation." The jargon makes debt restructuring sound like a mix of surgery, conspiracy, and military campaign, which together pretty much sum up Ukraine's challenge.

The Elusive Pursuit of Inflation
Christopher Coakley (IMF Survey) Apr 17, 2015
Having worked for years to tame inflation, the world’s central banks are now facing an increasing challenge to reawaken it.

Asia May Face Slower Future Growth, say Top Economists
IMF Survey Apr 17, 2015
After a period of rapid growth, Asia should expect much slower economic expansion in the future as the region is likely to revert to levels of average growth, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary has told an audience at the IMF-World Bank Meetings.

Africa’s Short-term Priority: Tackle Shock of Lower Oil Prices
IMF Survey Apr 17, 2015
Overall outlook favorable, but oil price drop trims oil exporters’ growth prospects. Decline in oil prices offers unique change to reform energy subsidies. More economic diversification can tap strong opportunities for long-term growth.

Greece: Still Shying Away from the Hard Decisions
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Apr 17, 2015
Unless Mr. Tsipras bites the bullet on tough reforms, Grexit will certainly become a reality.

Asia's Tough-Love Agenda for IMF
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2015
Emerging economies would do a lot differently if they were in charge of the IMF and World Bank.

Russia's Economy Steps Back from the Brink
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2015
The country has taken a big hit, but new data offer some hopeful signs.

Global Economy Loses Its (Ball) Bearings
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2015
Bleak sales of ball bearings and other basics suggest the global economy is far more fragile than most observers have acknowledged.

Curse of the IMF Chiefs
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2015
The detention of former IMF head Rodrigo Rato is another blow to the fund's already dismal reputation, which is weakening the institution.

Can Trade Agreements Stop Currency Manipulation?
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Apr 17, 2015
It is impossible to deny that trade and exchange rates are closely linked. But trade negotiations are not the right forum for discussing the causes and consequences of current-account imbalances and reaching agreements on macroeconomic-policy coordination; that is what the IMF and the G-20 are for.

The Debt Dilemma
Adair Turner and Susan Lund (Project Syndicate) Apr 17, 2015
The victory of the anti-austerity Syriza party in Greece’s February election has placed debt back at the center of debates about economic growth and stability. But Greece is hardly the only country that is struggling to repay its existing debt, much less dampen borrowing – and the risks are mounting.

What the West Owes Ukraine
Anders Åslund (Project Syndicate) Apr 17, 2015
Ukraine may not be grabbing as many headlines now as it did a year ago, but the crisis there is far from over. Ultimately, what Ukraine needs is to escape the old Soviet order – and, for that, it needs significantly more Western help than it is getting.

Greece's economic nightmare is here
Theodore Pelagidis (Brookings) Apr 17, 2015
As the honeymoon for Greece’s new government comes to an end, Theodore Pelagidis looks at two disheartening scenarios that might play out over the next few weeks.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is great for elites. Is it good for anyone else?
Timothy B. Lee (Vox) Apr 17, 2015
If, as critics contend, USTR's agenda is heavily tilted toward the interests of a few well-connected interest groups, then the TPP may not be good for America at all.

Liquidity in markets: Frozen Economist Subscription Required
Economist Apr 18, 2015
Regulators have made banking safer. But has that made markets riskier?

Reform in China: China's quiet revolution Economist Subscription Required
Economist Apr 18, 2015
The slowing economy commands headlines, but the more important story in China is an acceleration of reforms

Inflation, Central Banks, and Business Cycles
Jonathan Newman (Mises Daily) Apr 18, 2015
The word “inflation” means different things to different people.

Financing For Development: The Way Forward
IMF Survey Apr 18, 2015
As the United Nations prepares to adopt its new Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) later this year, IMF Deputy Managing Director Min Zhu, at the Spring Meetings debate, addressed concerns that the goals may be too ambitious.

Greek default necessary but Grexit is not Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Apr 19, 2015
Defaulting on the IMF and ECB is the only route to short-term relief but nobody has ever done it.

‘Hubris’, by Meghnad Desai Financial Times Subscription Required
Ferdinando Giugliano (FT) Apr 19, 2015
The author’s explanation of the great recession is a complex blend of unorthodox economic doctrines.

Investors must look beyond US assets Financial Times Subscription Required
Russ Koesterich (FT) Apr 19, 2015
Strategy of 60/40 US stocks/bonds has outperformed but will not work so well in future.

Vietnam: Profitable return Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Peel (FT) Apr 19, 2015
Those displaced by the war are now being encouraged to play a prominent role in the emerging economy.

China's Welcome Bridge to Pakistan
Bloomberg View Apr 19, 2015
Increased cooperation between China and Pakistan is nothing for the U.S. to worry about.

Charting Greece's Frightening Future
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Apr 19, 2015
Greece and its creditors have undone years of confidence-building in a matter of months.

The Problem With Secular Stagnation
Arvind Subramanian (Project Syndicate) Apr 19, 2015
In a recent exchange between Ben Bernanke and Larry Summers on the plausibility of secular stagnation, both agreed on the need for a global perspective. But from that perspective, the hypothesis of secular stagnation prior to the 2008 financial crisis is at odds with a central fact: global growth averaged more than 4%.

China's Road Rules Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Jacob Stokes (FA) Apr 19, 2015
Beijing looks west toward Eurasian integration.

Bank regulators fail to spot hidden dangers Financial Times Subscription Required
Robert Lenzner (FT) Apr 20, 2015
Seven years after the crash the authorities still know next to nothing.

Greece’s gloomy future is Ireland’s past Financial Times Subscription Required
Peter Cunningham (FT) Apr 20, 2015
The Celtic Tiger has become a model to be followed by other bailout countries.

Germany’s life assurers: the next crisis? Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Apr 20, 2015
Guaranteed rates and mismatched liabilities pose risk to system.

China begins to address its debt problem Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 20, 2015
Borrowers and lenders likely to get help from central bank rate cuts.

A Veteran of the Financial Crisis Tells China to Be Wary New York Times Subscription Required
Andrew Ross Sorkin (NYT) Apr 20, 2015
Henry M. Paulson, Treasury secretary during the 2008 financial crisis, warns China in a new book that it will undoubtedly have to “face a reckoning.”

Greece: Help from Putin?
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Apr 20, 2015
How realistic are Greek announcements about a big energy deal with Russia?

Is Greece Stumbling to the Euro Exit?
Tom Buerkle (II) Apr 20, 2015
Bad blood, big debts and looming deadlines have EU officials talking more openly about Grexit, and hoping to limit the contagion.

Can Britain Surpass Germany Economically?
Robert Bischof (Globalist) Apr 20, 2015
To get ahead, the UK should adapt German strategies.

Let Greece Stumble Out of the Euro
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 20, 2015
It may be time for Greece, which cheated its way past the velvet rope into the euro club, to quit the common currency.

11 Acts Toward a Greek Tragedy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 20, 2015
A ghastly set of circumstances is coming together to form an inevitable reality -- that of Greece being ejected from the euro zone, which wouldn't be caused by a conscious decisions, but would be the result of a huge accident.

Stock-Trading Monopolies Weren't So Bad
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Apr 20, 2015
Competition among exchanges and dark pools has gone too far for some big investors.

Asia's Growing China Problem
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 20, 2015
China is sputtering in ways that should worry officials from Seoul to Jakarta.

Blogger Bernanke's Abundance of Caution
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg View) Apr 20, 2015
Ben Bernanke is being overly cautious when he worries that a nominal-spending target for the Fed might not be compatible with the central bank's mandates to keep inflation and unemployment low.

A Global Marshall Plan
Erik S. Reinert and Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Project Syndicate) Apr 20, 2015
Despite ongoing efforts to catalyze global development cooperation, there have been significant obstacles to progress in recent years. Fortunately, with major international meetings set for the second half of 2015, world leaders have an important opportunity to overcome them.

High Debt and Low Oil Prices Threaten Canada’s Globalized Economy
Vikram Mansharamani (YaleGlobal) Apr 20, 2015
Canadians are caught in a new subprime-style property crisis and collapsing crude oil prices.

The role of trade credit financing in international trade
Katharina Eck, Martina Engemann and Monika Schnitzer (VoxEU) Apr 20, 2015
Credits extended bilaterally between firms, so called trade credits, are particularly expensive yet many firms use it, especially for international transactions. This column argues that such cash-in-advance financing serves as a credible signal of quality. Data from a unique survey of German firms show that it fosters export participation in particular for firms that tend to have the greatest difficulties in entering foreign markets.

Mythology that blocks progress in Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Apr 21, 2015
It will not end well if those involved cling to false beliefs.

China takes steps to address debt problem Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 21, 2015
Borrowers and lenders likely to get help from central bank rate cuts.

Study Tracks Accelerated Pace and Growing Pains of China’s Urbanization New York Times Subscription Required
Patrick Boehler (NYT) Apr 21, 2015
The report looks at several facets of a sweeping government-led effort to transform the country from a once-predominantly rural economy to a land of modern city dwellers.

The Oil Export Ban: A Relic of the 1970s Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
John Hess (WSJ) Apr 21, 2015
Lifting it would help keep rigs running and workers working—and it would even lower gas prices at the pump.

China's yuan: Asia's future anchor currency?
Chow Hwee Kwan (ST) Apr 21, 2015
The yuan is becoming more widely used in pricing and settling intra-regional trade and investment. Asian currencies' movements are likely to shift more in tandem with the yuan, leading to it becoming one of Asia's lead currencies.

Eurozone: The Battle Over What Solidarity Means
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Apr 21, 2015
Are two divergent economic cultures clashing inside the Eurozone?

The Bot Bubble
Doug Bock Clark (TNR) Apr 21, 2015
How click farms have inflated social media currency.

Trade agreements are not the right place to combat currency manipulation
Kemal Dervis (Brookings) Apr 21, 2015
Including monetary and fiscal policies into mega-regional trade agreements would complicate already difficult negotiations.

Euro or Drachma, Greece Must Finally Choose
Bloomberg View Apr 21, 2015
Greece is reaching the end of the road: If it wants to stay in the euro it must decide, in a clearly worded referendum.

Defaults Are Just What China Needs
Bloomberg View Apr 21, 2015
Defaults this week by a major Chinese property developer and a state-owned company provide a dose of market realism that China sorely needs.

The IMF's big Greek mistake
Ashoka Mody (Bloomberg View) Apr 21, 2015
The IMF should recognize its responsibility for the country's predicament and forgive much of the debt.

China Will Keep Growing Because It Has to
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Apr 21, 2015
Delivering steady economic growth is the government's key source of legitimacy.

China Should Let a Hundred Defaults Bloom
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 21, 2015
Xi Jinping must decide whether he is more interested in stoking short-term growth, or curbing the excesses that imperil the China's future.

Basel’s countercyclical capital buffer: The third nation issue
Natalia Tente (VoxEU) Apr 21, 2015
The Basel III countercyclical capital buffer framework obliges nations to set appropriate capital buffer rates for their bank’s credit exposure at home and in third countries. This column proposes criteria for selecting these third countries. The idea is to focus only on the third-country exposures that, firstly, could jeopardise stability of the domestic banking sector and, secondly, can be actually addressed by means of the policy. Variables and thresholds to operationalise this idea are proposed.

The 'Grexit' Issue and the Problem of Free Trade
George Friedman (Stratfor) Apr 21, 2015
The Greek crisis is moving toward a climax. The issue is actually quite simple. The Greek government owes a great deal of money to European institutions and the International Monetary Fund. It has accumulated this debt over time, but it has become increasingly difficult for Greece to meet its payments. If Greece doesn't meet these payments, the IMF and European institutions have said that they will not extend any more loans to Greece. Greece must make a calculation. If it pays the loans on time and receives additional funding, will it be better off than not paying the loans and being cut off from more?

Europe needs Deutsche Bank as its champion Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gapper (FT) Apr 22, 2015
Nationality in finance is not vital — the City thrived by not being nationalistic or protectionist.

Financial regulation meets a cul-de-sac Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Apr 22, 2015
The notion of a single super-trader able to disrupt markets has not been high on authorities’ agenda.

Prepare for a rough ride in EM bonds Financial Times Subscription Required
Alberto Gallo (FT) Apr 22, 2015
Good times are ending for corporate borrowers in emerging markets Read more >>

China needs to export ideas to compete Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Schuman (FT) Apr 22, 2015
You cannot take on Apple in the US by pretending you are Apple.

The IMF's Harmful Debt Restructuring Proposal
Angel Ubide (PIIE) Apr 22, 2015
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive board will soon decide how far to go in imposing costs on creditors when a country requests large scale IMF assistance. Early indications based on current staff proposals are that its decision will weaken the international financial architecture and the structure of global capital markets.

Why should we be worried about unwinding QE?
Gregor Logan (Pieria) Apr 22, 2015
The combination of very high debt, very low interest rates and very large central bank balance sheets means governments would struggle to respond to another crisis.

South Koreans Bicker Over Their Tanking Economy
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 22, 2015
A blame game won't fix the country's household debt bubble.

Why Is Spoofing Bad?
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Apr 22, 2015
Yesterday Navinder Singh Sarao was accused of spoofing S&P 500 E-mini futures in a way that might have contributed to the May 2010 flash crash.

Inequality Is a Bipartisan Issue
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 22, 2015
The question of inequality is important not just on its own merits, but because of its connections to economics, politics, demographics, race, gender and geopolitical extremism.

Europe's Collision Course With Greece
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Apr 22, 2015
Europe's stubborn stand on Greek debt may become its biggest miscalculation since the creation of the euro.

Europe’s Roadblocks to Long-Term Investment
Angelien Kemna (Project Syndicate) Apr 22, 2015
The enormous number of new rules put in place in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis are contributing to the lack of liquidity in Europe’s capital markets. Policymakers would be wise to reshape the broader regulatory environment with an eye toward facilitating long-term investment.

Debating the Confidence Fairy
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Apr 22, 2015
Confidence affects government decision-making, but it does not affect the results of decisions. Except in extreme cases, it cannot cause a bad policy to have good results, and a lack of it cannot cause a good policy to have bad results, any more than believing that humans can fly can offset the effect of gravity.

Big Asset Shift of Japan’s GPIF Is Secret Weapon of Abenomics
James Shinn (II) Apr 22, 2015
The world’s largest pension fund, led by Takahiro Mitani, is moving massive amounts of money from Japanese bonds into domestic and foreign stocks. Can the shift revitalize the economy?

China's New Investment Bank: A Premature Prophecy
Mark Fleming-Williams (Stratfor) Apr 22, 2015
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers wrote on April 5 that this month may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system. His comments refer to the circumstances surrounding China's launch of a new venture, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Wary of China's growing ambitions and influence, the United States had advised its allies not to join the institution, but many signed up anyway. The debacle was undoubtedly embarrassing for Washington, but even so, Summers' prophecy is a bit premature at this stage.

Secular Stagnation in the US
Robert E. Hall (VoxEU) Apr 22, 2015
The disappointing post-Crisis performance of the US economy and even more disappointing performance of continental Europe and Japan have revived interest in the possibility of secular stagnation. This column argues that a consensus is forming that inadequate demand will no longer be a factor in whatever US stagnation occurs in coming years. In Japan and Europe, on the other hand, the case for boosting demand is strong and inadequate demand is almost surely a main cause of the stagnation.

Rare events, financial crises, and the cross-section of asset returns
Francesco Bianchi (VoxEU) Apr 22, 2015
During the Great Recession, the possibility that the US might enter a second Great Depression was a real concern. This column argues that until early 2009, financial markets behaved in a manner consistent with the early years of the Great Depression. The large stock-market fall saw growth stocks outperforming value stocks. This pattern ended March 2009, arguably in light of robust policy interventions. These dynamics suggest that poor performance of growth stocks during regular times may be compensated by superior performance in crises.

Debt supercycle, not secular stagnation
Kenneth Rogoff (VoxEU) Apr 22, 2015
Weak, post-Crisis growth has been blamed on secular stagnation. This column argues that the ‘financial crisis/debt supercycle’ view provides a more accurate and useful framework for understanding what has transpired and what is likely to come next. The difference matters. Unlike secular stagnation, a debt supercycle is not forever. After deleveraging and borrowing headwinds subside, expected growth trends might prove higher than simple extrapolations of recent performance might suggest.

US fears European sequel to Lehman Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Apr 23, 2015
Policy makers worry eurozone officials are too optimistic about dealing with a potential Grexit.

Quixotic quest for a greener future Financial Times Subscription Required
Julian Critchlow (FT) Apr 23, 2015
Even an ardent enthusiast will struggle to make the technology work.

The internet cannot be without laws Financial Times Subscription Required
Rob Wainwright (FT) Apr 23, 2015
The police are sometimes demonised as agents of digital repression.

Greek contagion still on global risk list Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Apr 23, 2015
Reduced liquidity and crowded trades mean danger remains.

Niche Trade in Lamb Pelts Proves Vital to Ailing Afghan Economy New York Times Subscription Required
Joseph Golstein (NYT) Apr 23, 2015
Last year, Finland imported nearly a half-million Afghan lamb pelts, auctioning them off to be turned into luxurious women’s coats, among other items.

This High-Speed Trader Says Thanks, Regulators Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Ari Rubinstein (WSJ) Apr 23, 2015
More oversight will make high-frequency trading safer and more secure, increasing investor trust and participation.

US Trade Debate Kicks into High Gear as Congress Debates TPA Bill
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 14 Apr 23, 2015
The trade debate in Washington has now moved squarely into the spotlight, following the introduction of the long-awaited Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation. The proposed text already went through a "mark-up" in the Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday, passing by a 20-6 majority.

IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings Pledge "Further Measures" to Boost Global Growth
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 14 Apr 23, 2015
Ramping up the pace of the global recovery, reversing the economic fall-out of the Ebola crisis, and supporting ongoing international efforts at crafting a new development agenda shared centre stage during the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group from 17-19 April.

EU Commission Files Anti-Trust Charges Against Russia's Gazprom
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 14 Apr 23, 2015
Following a two-year investigation, the European Commission's competition branch filed charges on Wednesday against Russia's biggest energy company Gazprom, citing claims of unfair practices in Central and Eastern Europe.

Africa and commodity prices: No longer the kiss of death Economist Subscription Required
Economist Apr 23, 2015
Things are a lot better than they used to be.

Brazil's Adjustment: It's (not) Mostly Fiscal
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Apr 23, 2015
Much has been said recently about the urgent need for fiscal adjustment in Brazil. Finance Minister Joaquim Levy conveyed this message during his trip to Washington in April, and President Dilma Rousseff began her second term in office in January by moving toward the removal of key price distortions that have plagued the economy for four years.

Is Economic Openness an "Enemy of the People"?
Monica de Bolle (Folha de São Paulo/PIIE) Apr 23, 2015
"Entreguismo," loosely translated from the Portuguese as "handing over," is an old term used by those who argue that openness to trade and investment is akin to giving up the pursuit of domestic interests in favor of those of large foreign companies. The accompanying rationale is that these companies hurt the economy by "stealing jobs" and flooding domestic markets with cheap foreign goods, thus driving out domestic firms.

Modi's Moment of Truth
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Apr 23, 2015
A rejuvenated opposition and bad monsoon could imperil his growth agenda.

Deutsche Bank Was Emphatic About Manipulating Libor
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Apr 23, 2015
DON'T FORGET TO MANIPULATE LIBOR OLD BEAN.

Wonks Abandon an Economic Dream
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 23, 2015
Economics has a long way to go before it can predict busts.

The Right Health Investments
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Apr 23, 2015
As devastating as last year's Ebola outbreak has been, its death toll of less than 20,000 people is dwarfed by that of preventable diseases like AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, which together caused more than three million deaths in 2013. Addressing these diseases, it turns out, would be an extraordinarily good investment.

Asian Games Are Not Zero-Sum
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Apr 23, 2015
However tempting it may be to focus on global economic rankings, they are the wrong way to think about today's major global governance issues. Unfortunately, that is now how current issues are being framed.

A New Deal for Greece
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Apr 23, 2015
Though three months of negotiations between the Greek government and its European and international partners have brought about much convergence, they have not yet produced an agreement. What steps are needed to produce a viable, mutually acceptable reform agenda?

Ireland’s Lessons for Greece
Michael Heise (Project Syndicate) Apr 23, 2015
While no one disputes that things have gone wrong in Greece, the Syriza-led Greek government's argument that fiscal consolidation necessarily leads to never-ending recession – which forms the core of its case for a new deal from its creditors – is not borne out by the facts. Just look at Ireland.

Global Divergence, the Federal Reserve and the Impact on U.S. Insurers
David L. Braun and Scott A. Millimet (PIMCO) Apr 23, 2015
Insurers continue to look for yield by taking a little more credit risk rather than extending duration. We prefer to be underweight U.S. duration because we think rates are fully valued. We are comfortable being overweight credit - select credit - based on the fundamental story of the U.S. showing signs of a self-sustaining recovery.

The New Global Marketplace of Political Change
Thomas Carothers, Oren Samet-Marram (CEIP) Apr 23, 2015
Western democratic powers are no longer the dominant external shapers of political transitions around the world.

Q. and A.: Henry Paulson on ‘Dealing With China’ New York Times Subscription Required
Jane Perlez (NYT) Apr 24, 2015
The former Treasury secretary talks about his new book, “Dealing With China,” and why the United States-China relationship matters.

Economists Actually Agree on This: The Wisdom of Free Trade New York Times Subscription Required
N. Gregory Mankiw (NYT) Apr 24, 2015
If Congress were to take an exam in Economics 101, would it pass? We are about to find out.

IMF Unveils New Way of Assessing Country Reserves
IMF Survey Apr 24, 2015
The IMF develops a new framework for determining the appropriate level of international reserves held by its member countries, emphasizing the need to take account of the specific needs of different types of economies. In addition to important benefits, reserves also have costs.

The great unraveling of globalization
Jeffrey Rothfeder (WP) Apr 24, 2015
U.S. businesses rethink a strategy that promised to lift companies and consumers the world over.

Greek Contagion Is Not a Something, Not a Nothing
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2015
Greek contagion is like Schrodinger's cat: both alive and dead until we open the box.

Ex-Goldman Guys Think Citi Was a Little Abrupt With FX Trades
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2015
Banks can dump defaulting customers, but probably shouldn't enjoy it.

How a Bubble Steals From the Future
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2015
It can take years to recover from the frenzy.

Good-Government Authoritarianism?
Alfred Stepan and Richa Maheshwari (Project Syndicate) Apr 24, 2015
Countries like Singapore are often held up as proof that authoritarianism succeeds in fighting corruption. But, aside from this supposition’s profoundly anti-democratic implications, it also happens to be empirically false.

Democracy Versus Growth?
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Apr 24, 2015
Europe’s ongoing malaise has reignited the old debate over which form of government produces better economic performance. Are authoritarian regimes, with their ability to ram through unpopular choices, more effective at generating growth, or does liberal democracy, with its built in checks and balances, yield greater prosperity?

When Women Thrive, So Will the World
Shinzo Abe (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2015
Japan can lead the way with more female executives and more engagement abroad.

Lenders’ Incentives to avoid fire sales: Evidence from the mortgage market
Giovanni Favara and Mariassunta Giannetti (VoxEU) Apr 24, 2015
During financial crises, fire sales (or forced asset sales) could further aggravate the financial fragility. However, evidence on why agents do not take actions to avoid collateral liquidation is scant. This column uses data on foreclosures and house prices from the US housing crisis to present new evidence on the issue. The authors argue that lenders with a large share of outstanding mortgages internalise the negative spillovers of liquidation. Thus, they might be more likely to renegotiate and avoid price-default spirals.

Greece: On the Gredge Economist Subscription Required
Economist Apr 25, 2015
A Greek exit from the euro may soon become inevitable.

Peru: Beyond Llamas and Machu Picchu
Tim Harcourt (Globalist) Apr 25, 2015
Can Peru once again prove skeptics wrong and succeed in the world economy?

Why risk is hard to measure
Jon Danielsson & Chen Zhou (VoxEU) Apr 25, 2015
Regulators and financial institutions increasingly depend on statistical risk forecasting. This column argues that most risk modelling approaches are highly inaccurate and confidence intervals should be provided along with point estimates. Two major approaches, value-at-risk and expected shortfall are compared, and while the former is found to be superior in practice, it is also easier to be manipulated by forecasters.

US share buybacks loot the future Financial Times Subscription Required
Edward Luce (FT) Apr 26, 2015
Corporate leaders should put long-term investment and growth ahead of quick gains.

The real threat to Europe lies in Ukraine Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Apr 26, 2015
A failed state or further annexation by Russia would dwarf fears over Grexit.

India promises a fair deal on tax Financial Times Subscription Required
Arun Jaitley (FT) Apr 26, 2015
The government must end damaging retroactive demands as a priority.

‘Eurocrats’ command the world’s respect Financial Times Subscription Required
Mario Monti (FT) Apr 26, 2015
Why, when the EU is so bad at so much, has it hit upon a competition policy that works?

New rules only lower bank risk in theory Financial Times Subscription Required
Satyajit Das (FT) Apr 26, 2015
True risk of financial institutions is understated.

Central bankers as supervisors: The bandwagon effect
Donato Masciandaro and Davide Romelli (VoxEU) Apr 26, 2015
In the aftermath of the Global Crisis, many countries increased their central banks’ involvement in financial supervision. This column uses a novel dataset to argue that financial crises episodes significantly increase the probability of reforms in the financial structure. More interestingly, the authors find evidence of a ‘bandwagon effect’ by showing that politicians are more likely to undertake reforms when their peers do so.

European banks struggle to keep up Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Apr 27, 2015
Weak performance and fiscal and political uncertainty mean sector is lagging behind US.

Chile: Copper bottomed Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sanderson (FT) Apr 27, 2015
Facing higher costs and lower prices, copper producers are being asked to improve their environmental record.

FDI surge for India bucks global trend Financial Times Subscription Required
Courtney Fingar (FT) Apr 27, 2015
Largest number of projects are in manufacturing and in sales, marketing and support.

Japan’s massive trade opportunity
Paul Ryan (WP) Apr 27, 2015
Sealing the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal would give a boost to both Japan and the United States.

Freeing American Crude: Oil Export Controls Amount to a Trifecta of Bad Policy
Gary Clyde Hufbauer (WT/PIIE) Apr 27, 2015
It's rare to find a policy that combines bad economics with harmful national security overtones and, at the same time, violates US obligations to the world trading system. But US restrictions on crude oil exports are just that rare bird.

The future of development is ageing
Ken Bluestone (OECD Insight) Apr 27, 2015
Two themes that resonate strongly across the OECD are the need to achieve sustainable development and the growing significance of population ageing. It is rare, however, that these two agendas are brought together to consider the importance of ageing for developing countries.

Germany = Geoeconomics, US = Geopolitics
Stephen F. Szabo (Globalist) Apr 27, 2015
Mercury or Mars? What separates Germany and the United States.

3 Tough Choices for ECB on Greece
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 27, 2015
Will the central bank pull the plug?

Fed Triggers Bank Flight From Emerging Markets
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Apr 27, 2015
Will the Fed's moves have repercussions for emerging markets? To some extent, it's already happening.

Why Is a Hated Man Speaking for Greece?
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 27, 2015
Yanis Varoufakis shouldn't be negotiating for Greece.

Investors Lose Faith in Turkey
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Apr 27, 2015
Lira, stocks and bonds are all suffering.

The AIIB and Global Governance
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Apr 27, 2015
Despite official American and Japanese opposition, 57 countries have opted to be among the founding members of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Regardless of what naysayers believe, this remarkable turn of events can only benefit global economic governance.

The Narrative Roots of Public Policy
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Apr 27, 2015
At the recent Summit of the Americas in Panama, Cuban President Raúl Castro chose to break with the agreed protocol. Instead of speaking for eight minutes, he took six times longer to present a potted political history of his country. There was good reason for him to do so.

Are the Good Times Over?
Michael J. Boskin (Project Syndicate) Apr 27, 2015
When a boom or bust lasts for a long time, it begins to seem like it will continue indefinitely. Six years after the Great Recession, many wonder whether insufficient investment and/or waning gains from technological innovation have pushed the global economy into a “new normal” of lower growth and slow, if any, gains in living standards.

Japan's Economy Needs Shock Therapy
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 27, 2015
A bold economic experiment hasn't been bold enough.

From Rapid Recovery to Slowdown: Why Recent Economic Growth in Latin America Has Been Slow Adobe Acrobat Required
José De Gregorio (PIIE) Apr 27, 2015
Latin America's recent economic performance has been disappointing. After a very strong recovery from the Great Recession, growth has slowed considerably, and prospects for 2015 are dim.

Robots are infiltrating productivity and economic growth statistics
Scott Andes and Mark Muro (Brookings) Apr 27, 2015
Data show robots are a growing factor in economic productivity and will play a critical role in structuring the world of work, the growth of productivity, and the shape of prosperity.

The Design Economy
Design Council (Pieria) Apr 27, 2015
A series of 10 long-form think pieces on how design is transforming the economy in the twenty-first century.

The coming defaults of Greece
Charles Wyplosz (VoxEU) Apr 27, 2015
It seems that there will be no agreement between Greece and its Eurozone partners. Short of cash, the Greek government will have no choice but to suspend payment of its maturing debts. This column looks at what happens next. In brief, it will be very much up to the ECB to decide.

Pacific pact sails past a drifting TTIP Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Apr 28, 2015
Attempt to reach agreement with Europe is complicated enough without the intrusion of politics.

Why Japan is vulnerable Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Apr 28, 2015
Foreign inflows could trigger spike in rates which would hit its banks.

China’s rainmakers head for cover Financial Times Subscription Required
Jennifer Hughes (FT) Apr 28, 2015
Investment banks are feeling the strain in the light of post-financial crisis regulation and costs.

The Trader as Scapegoat New York Times Subscription Required
Rajiv Sethi (NYT) Apr 28, 2015
Regulators should focus on high-speed strategies, not a British “spoofer.”

What Greece Faces if It Defaults New York Times Subscription Required
Uki Goni (NYT) Apr 28, 2015
When Argentina canceled its foreign debt, the result was ugly.

A Trade Deal With Help for U.S. Workers Baked In Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
William A. Galston (WSJ) Apr 29, 2015
Globalization has many benefits, but it comes at a cost to American labor that must be addressed.

A progressive’s lament about the Trans-Pacific Partnership
Katrina vanden Heuvel (WP) Apr 28, 2015
Compromise doesn't make sense if it’s a half step in the wrong direction.

Resilient Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, Despite Strong Headwinds
IMF Survey Apr 28, 2015
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should remain robust but decelerate in the wake of the decline in oil and commodity prices, the IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook says, adding that the economy of the region is set to register another year of solid performance.

Greece: Caught Between Nero and Catharsis
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Apr 28, 2015
The Syriza government has done wonders to unify the rest of the Eurozone.

China's Middle Class Can Finally Afford IPhones
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 28, 2015
The global economy will never be the same.

Bankers Shouldn't Run Central Banks
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 28, 2015
Business leaders should help set interest rates.

China’s Slowing New Normal
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Apr 28, 2015
While some observers agree that China can sustain 6-7% growth for the next decade or so, provided that the government implements a comprehensive set of reforms in a timely manner, others expect its growth to continue to trend downward. Who is right will depend on China’s success in boosting household income and consumption.

Planetary Boundaries and Human Prosperity
Johan Rockström and Kate Raworth (Project Syndicate) Apr 28, 2015
Ending poverty has become a realistic goal for the first time in human history, but we will be able to do so only if we simultaneously protect the earth’s nine most critical systems. And those systems are coming under unprecedented pressure – from us.

America’s Risky Recovery
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Apr 28, 2015
The US economy is approaching full employment and may already be there. But America’s favorable employment trend is accompanied by a substantial increase in financial-sector risks, owing to the excessively easy monetary policy that was used to achieve the current economic recovery.

The Old New Financial Risk
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Apr 28, 2015
The main financial risk facing the United States today looks very similar to what caused so much trouble in 2007-08: big banks with too much debt and too little equity capital on their balance sheets. We already saw this movie, and it ended badly; next time could be a real horror show.

Prelude to a Japanese Revival
John Minnich (Stratfor) Apr 28, 2015
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has arrived in Washington, the third stop on his maiden voyage to the United States since assuming office in 2012. Over the next two days, he will hold a summit with U.S. President Barack Obama on U.S.-Japanese defense and trade cooperation, attend a state dinner in his honor and address a joint session of the U.S. Congress. In his speech before Congress, Abe will reaffirm Japan's commitment to promoting peace and security in East Asia and extol the virtues of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12-country free trade agreement that spans the Pacific Ocean Basin and pointedly excludes China.

Three Reasons the Dollar Should Stay Strong
Scott A. Mather (PIMCO/Barron's) Apr 28, 2015
After a decade of weakness, the U.S. dollar has appreciated strongly over the past couple of years, with a particularly strong surge in the first three months of 2015.

Commodities: Over 100 years of booms and busts
Andrew Powell (VoxEU) Apr 28, 2015
Commodity prices are very persistent. A boom is always followed by a bust, and after a slump, a boom comes along. This column reviews some basic aspects of commodity theory and their role in the last boom. Finally, it presents arguments stating that lower commodity prices are here to stay for a while. We may have to wait many years for the next boom to come along.

Measuring public panic in the Great Financial Crisis
Jonathan Ashworth and Charles A.E. Goodhart (VoxEU) Apr 28, 2015
When panic strikes, people tend to withdraw cash. While there were upticks in currency-to-deposit ratios in the autumn of 2008 and early 2009, they were modest and very short-lived compared to the Great Depression. This column argues that leading central banks learnt from the 1930s mistakes and acted decisively to check the panic. Key policies were the existence and upgrading of deposit insurance schemes, massive liquidity injections, and rapid cutting of interest rates. The most important were the guarantees that the biggest banks wouldn’t fail.

Conquistadors lose sense of adventure Financial Times Subscription Required
Tobias Buck (FT) Apr 29, 2015
Spanish companies turn back from riskier South American deals.

Do not follow the herd into Chinese stocks Financial Times Subscription Required
Alexander Friedman (FT) Apr 29, 2015
Investors should look beyond banks, telecoms and energy.

Puerto Rico on the Brink New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Apr 29, 2015
After years of bad policies, mismanagement, excessive debt and bad luck, the island's economy is in trouble.

Can Bitcoin Conquer Argentina? New York Times Subscription Required
Nathaniel Popper (NYT) Apr 29, 2015
With its volatile currency and dysfunctional banks, the country is the perfect place to experiment with a new digital currency.

The Slow-Growth Fed Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Apr 29, 2015
The economy starts another year with a stall despite near-zero rates.

A Trade Deal With Help for U.S. Workers Baked In Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
William A. Galston (WSJ) Apr 29, 2015
Globalization has many benefits, but it comes at a cost to American labor that must be addressed.

China’s new, better ‘leap forward’
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Apr 29, 2015
“One of the defining events in modern intellectual history.”

Growth in Latin America Weakens for Fifth Year in a Row
IMF Survey Apr 29, 2015
Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to decline for a fifth consecutive year—dipping below 1 percent in 2015—although there are clear differences along North-South lines, the IMF said in its latest regional forecast.

TPP: Beware of the Japan Hype
Jean-Pierre Lehmann (Globalist) Apr 29, 2015
Just as is the case in the US, there is very strong domestic opposition to TPP in Japan.

Apple Isn't Samsung's Big Problem
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2015
Currency fluctuations are eroding profits.

Fed Signals Tightening, Loosely
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2015
Once the hikes begin, the Fed would work hard to convince the markets that the pace will be slow, hesitant and subject to course correction.

Scott Walker, Labor Market Protectionist
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2015
Immigrants can boost growth.

Americans Get Free Trade's Dark Side
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2015
The American people are intelligent and grown-up enough to hear the basic case against free trade, as well as the case in favor.

Greece Is Stuck With the Euro, and Vice Versa
Bloomberg View Apr 29, 2015
Breaking up is hard to do. So don't.

Tsipras in Dreamland
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) Apr 29, 2015
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras seems to have forgotten the Marxist tradition’s emphasis on the unity of theory and practice. If you want to negotiate a change of tack with your creditors, you are unlikely to succeed if you destroy your own credibility and rant and rave about those whose money you need to avoid default.

US and China’s frosty future Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) Apr 30, 2015
Washington is giving up on Beijing becoming a stakeholder in the present global order.

Healthy liquidity needed to survive shocks Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Apr 30, 2015
If US rates suddenly rise, retail investors might flood out of bond funds.

West can learn from Japan’s lost decades Financial Times Subscription Required
Yoichi Funabashi (FT) Apr 30, 2015
Debt, low inflation and slow growth challenge other economies too.

German bonds measure success of ECB QE Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Apr 30, 2015
Big swings in 10-year Bund yields of late could have wide repercussions.

Executive pay: battle to align risks and rewards Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Skapinker (FT) Apr 30, 2015
Companies are being pressed to reform the complex compensation structures and high pay levels of top managers.

Oil Prices: What’s Behind the Drop? Simple Economics New York Times Subscription Required
Clifford Krauss (NYT) Apr 30, 2015
The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in a new downturn.

Q. and A.: Francis Fukuyama on China’s Political Development New York Times Subscription Required
Qitong Cao (NYT) Apr 30, 2015
The author of the widely read essay “The End of History?” which posited that Western liberal democracy may turn out to be the endpoint of political development, discusses what China’s past and present portend for its future.

A Big Data Financial Retreat Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Apr 30, 2015
Finra walks back its needless and risky house of Cards.

Dismal Growth Needs the 3.5% Solution Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Apr 30, 2015
The steps to spurring the economy include allowing oil exports and not taxing repatriated overseas profits.

US, Japan Leaders Pledge to Lead TPP Talks to Swift Conclusion
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 15 Apr 30, 2015
US President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe jointly pledged on Tuesday to help lead negotiations for a 12-country Pacific Rim trade deal to a "swift and successful conclusion," after meeting at the White House during the Japanese premier's highly-anticipated visit to Washington.

TTIP Talks Eye Regulatory Cooperation Advances Ahead of Political Review
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 15 Apr 30, 2015
The latest round of EU-US negotiations for a bilateral trade and investment deal reported progress in regulatory cooperation and rules, ahead of a "joint political review" that is slated to take place after the summer.

Draft US Trade Bill Outlines 10-Year AGOA Extension, GSP Renewal
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 15 Apr 30, 2015
A bipartisan bill to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for another decade was introduced in the US Congress on 16 April, quickly advancing out of the committee levels in both the House and Senate late last week. The current version of AGOA is due to expire on 30 September unless renewal legislation is approved beforehand.

UN Post-2015, Financing for Development Talks Debate Relationship
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 15 Apr 30, 2015
A joint session of the UN talks geared towards crafting a post-2015 development agenda and those designed to outline future development finance saw delegates debate the relationship between the two processes, and their outcome documents, due to be finalised in the coming months.

Bank of Japan Parts Ways With Reality
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 30, 2015
Five signs the BOJ chief doesn't get the economy.

Reengineering Government
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Apr 30, 2015
The risk governments face nowadays is clear enough: absent a profound reengineering, inertial spending – owing to entitlements and civil-service wages – is bound to crowd out spending on new priorities and new policies. Fortunately, there are a few things governments can do to mitigate the effects.

Beyond Silicon Valley
Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendonca (Project Syndicate) Apr 30, 2015
Once again, California’s Silicon Valley is confirming its status as a mecca of high-tech entrepreneurship and wealth creation. But it is not a model for job creation and inclusive growth that policymakers and entrepreneurs elsewhere can emulate – at least not without making some fundamental adjustments.

Economic Policy Turned Inside Out
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Apr 30, 2015
Since the global economic crisis, policymakers in the US and elsewhere have resorted to financial engineering in an effort to recapture growth. In doing so, they have embarked on the greatest experiment in the modern history of economic policy – one that risks, once again, pushing the world economy to its limits.

An Asian Community Can Wait
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Apr 30, 2015
European countries may join the AIIB to deepen their business and political ties with China, but their financial stakes in the outcome are limited. Japan, however, has much to lose if the AIIB does not work according to plan, which is why it would be wise to wait before deciding whether to sign up.

An Even More Dismal Science
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Apr 30, 2015
For the past 25 years, a debate has raged among some of the world’s leading economists over whether the nature of the business cycle underwent a fundamental change after the end of the “30 glorious years” that followed World War II. A degree of consensus has emerged: the glory days are gone for good.

Tilting the playing field: Multinational firms and preferential market access
Emily Blanchard and Xenia Matschke (VoxEU) Apr 30, 2015
Recent decades have witnessed a dramatic shift in the nature of world trade brought about by the unbundling of international production. One implication is that lobbying by a nation’s firms can be partly influenced by a desired to protect their production facilities abroad. This column presents evidence that US imports from countries and industries with greater offshoring activity by US multinationals face distinctly lower trade barriers.

Focus Germany: German savers challenged by QE Adobe Acrobat Required
Barbara Böttcher and Oliver Rakau (DB Research) Apr 30, 2015
Investing the German household way: A little more risk.

A Little Disruption, Big Economic Shocks
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 1, 2015
A model of economic networks is a big leap forward.

The Dollar Joins the Currency Wars
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) May 1, 2015
Until recently, US policymakers were not overly concerned about the dollar’s strength; America’s growth prospects were stronger than in Europe and Japan. But things look different today, and officials’ exchange-rate jitters are becoming increasingly pronounced.

Will the TPP Help Latin America?
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) May 1, 2015
If done right, the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership could help Mexico, Peru, and Chile – the accord’s Latin American members – make the leap to high-productivity exports based on innovation. But that would require the TPP to foster, not impede, the flow of knowledge around the Pacific Rim.

An assessment of the state of the world economy
Olivier Blanchard (VoxEU) May 1, 2015
Complex forces are shaping macroeconomic evolutions around the world. In this column, IMF’s Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard describes some of these forces and provides an overview of the state of the world economy. Putting the forces together, the baseline forecasts are that advanced countries will do better this year than last, and emerging countries will slow down. Overall, the global growth will be roughly the same as last year, with the macroeconomic risks having slightly decreased.

In Defense of Financial Innovation Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Andrew Palmer (FA) May 1, 2015
Creative finance helps everyone---not just the rich.

The End of Reform in China Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Youwei (FA) May 1, 2015
Authoritarian adaptation hits a wall.

The Precision Agriculture Revolution Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Jess Lowenberg-DeBoer (FA) May 1, 2015
Making the modern farmer.

What Caused Capitalism? Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Jeremy Adelman (FA) May 1, 2015
Assessing the roles of the West and the Rest.

China: Uneasy Way to the “New Normal” Adobe Acrobat Required
Feng Guo, Jean-Charles Sambor and Kevin Sanker (IIF) May 1, 2015
A rapidly slowing economy has prompted the government to reinforce policy easing using monetary, fiscal and administrative measures. Further broad-based easing is expected to head off a hard landing. Meanwhile, the pace of financial reforms is expected to accelerate in 2015. The priority is being given to further capital account opening, combined with significant steps towards full interest rate liberalization and introduction of deposit insurance. A gradual depreciation of the RMB is still our central scenario, but a more pronounced adjustment cannot be ruled out.

The Mexican gamble Economist Subscription Required
Economist May 2, 2015
In spite of a history of boom-and-bust, Mexico has asked investors to place a 100-year bet on its debt

Making Japan a place where women can shine
Tomohiko Inui, Makiko Nakamuro, Kazuma Edamura and Junko Ozawa (VoxEU) May 2, 2015
In order to achieve sustainable growth, Japan should make an efficient use of its labour force. However, female labour force participation and the share of women in leading positions in Japan remain low. This column investigates the impact of board diversity on firms’ innovative activity using Japanese firm-level data. The findings suggest that board diversity is associated with innovation only for firms that have already acquired diverse management skills.

Fed pause gives emerging markets respite Financial Times Subscription Required
Ferdinando Giugliano (FT) May 3, 2015
US central bank’s decision on interest rate rise may change the shape of the global recovery.

Saudis’ embryonic embrace of meritocracy Financial Times Subscription Required
John Sawers (FT) May 3, 2015
In such a conservative society, change will be controversial.

Investors crowd in to fill equity gaps Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Ford (FT) May 3, 2015
Sector is flourishing, despite risky odds and light regulation.

Global growth report card – is the world slowdown temporary? Financial Times Subscription Required
Gavyn Davies (FT) May 3, 2015
The latest activity “nowcasts” shown in detail below indicate that the global economy has continued to slow down more than consensus forecasts projected, though forecasters continue to believe that this slowdown will prove temporary.

Monetary Rules Work Better Than ‘Constrained Discretion’ Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
John B. Taylor (WSJ) May 3, 2015
We have had a serious financial crisis, a very deep recession, a not-so-great recovery, and now a virtually strategy-free international monetary system. This is not a good record.

A trade watershed?
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) May 3, 2015
The Pacific trade deal would serve U.S. interests.

Exorcising NAFTA’s ghosts
Thomas F. McLarty III (WP) May 3, 2015
The trade pact holds lessons for today.

The Scars of the Euro Crisis
Angel Ubide (PIIE) May 3, 2015
The euro crisis is over. The Greek tragedy continues in the background, and a Greek exit from the euro could deal a mortal blow to the single currency project.

The Accelerating Transition Away from Fossil Fuels
Lester Brown (Globalist) May 3, 2015
This century is witnessing a shift to renewable solar and wind energy.

Common sense on the financial crisis
Patrick Minford (VoxEU) May 3, 2015
The financial system – especially banks – is generally blamed for the Great Recession. This notion has been used to justify the adoption by central banks of several new monetary policy functions, such as financial stability and macro-prudential policies. This column argues that the financial crisis was just one component of the Great Recession and that central banks are largely responsible, given their failure to prevent banks’ liquidity difficulties from overflowing into the economy. It suggests that central banks should pay attention to stabilising monetary policy and scale back the new policies of direct regulation.

Japan’s race against the ageing clock
Atsushi Seike (EAF) May 3, 2015
The ageing of Japan’s population is globally unprecedented both in its level and its speed.

The Morality of Debt Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Kenneth Dyson (FA) May 3, 2015
A history of financial saints and sinners.

Insuring for Disaster New York Times Subscription Required
Jeffrey D. Sachs (NYT) May 4, 2015
We can't prevent tragedies like the Nepal quake, but we can find a better way to help.

Precarious prospects of London finance Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Augar (FT) May 4, 2015
UK’s next government needs a clear vision for the financial services industry.

China must prove Silk Road is serious Financial Times Subscription Required
George Magnus (FT) May 4, 2015
Beijing has tired of buying up endless volumes of US bonds.

Past still haunts Latin American leaders Financial Times Subscription Required
Jude Webber (FT) May 4, 2015
There is no one-size-fits-all solution to the crime and corruption in the region.

China migration: At the turning point Financial Times Subscription Required
Gabriel Wildau (FT) May 4, 2015
A shrinking labour force from rural areas is driving huge economic change.

What will our livelihoods be like in 2030?
Martha Baxter and Bathylle Missika (OECD Insights) May 4, 2015
Humankind has experienced more than two centuries of almost continuous progress since the Industrial Revolution, but will this trend continue?

Greece's Firebrand Finance Minister Deserves to Be Heard
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 4, 2015
Varoufakis's removal from Greece's debt talks makes another Band-Aid solution likely.

A Fake Debate Over Trade Talks
Bloomberg View May 4, 2015
Trans-Pacific Partnership needs a little secrecy.

Graft or Growth in China?
Yao Yang (Project Syndicate) May 4, 2015
China’s anti-corruption campaign has been widely touted as a key component of the deep structural reforms that the country needs to continue its development. But, in a country where government officials play a major role in promoting economic growth, will rooting out corruption undermine prosperity?

How to Select the Next UN Secretary-General
Ngaire Woods and Nina Hall (Project Syndicate) May 4, 2015
The selection process for filling important international posts often has been characterized more by political horse-trading than a meritocratic search for the best candidate. The tools to improve the process are available, and the time is right to ensure their adoption by the United Nations and other international organizations.

Which Internet for Europe?
James Waterworth (Project Syndicate) May 4, 2015
When the European Commission announces its new digital strategy on May 6, it will face a decisive choice between two very different approaches to the Internet. Will it choose a forward-looking, market-driven path, or a defensive, backward-looking, insular retreat?

Why is the number of poor people in Africa increasing when Africa’s economies are growing?
Laurence Chandy (Brookings) May 4, 2015
The answer can be found through a closer examination of Africa’s poverty data.

Why G.E. Ditched Finance
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) May 4, 2015
The surprising rebirth of American manufacturing.

Chinese outwards mercantilism: The art and practice of bundling
Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak and Huanhuan Zheng (VoxEU) May 4, 2015
China’s export-led growth has coincided with the country becoming one of the largest net global creditors. This column looks ahead to the next chapter of Chinese ‘outwards mercantilism’ – FDI investment in natural resources, commodities and mining bundled with access to finance and the export of Chinese capital products and labour services.

Is Transition to Inflation Targeting Good for Growth?
Galina Hale and Alexej Philippov (FRBSF Econ Letter) May 4, 2015
Inflation targeting is often considered the most appropriate monetary policy framework for central banks seeking price stability. While a target can help stabilize inflation, the implications for a country’s growth are less clear. Advanced economies experienced higher economic growth immediately following the transition to inflation targeting. However, developing economies experienced only modest gains that were close to their trend growth. One explanation is that transitioning to a low-inflation regime can be more costly for less stable countries that have higher inflation expectations and less credible policies.

China share in global indices set to rise Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) May 5, 2015
Renminbi’s growing international stature will draw assets.

Corporate discontent brews in India Financial Times Subscription Required
James Crabtree (FT) May 5, 2015
Confusion remains over the prime minister’s vision for business Read more >>

The Future of Worldwide Income Distribution
Tomas Hellebrandt and Paolo Mauro (PIIE) May 5, 2015
The debate about income distribution has focused on the trend of rising inequality in the United States and other advanced economies. Worldwide, however, income distribution is becoming more equal.

Japan Isn't Just a Knockoff Nation
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2015
Its record of creativity and innovation is long and impressive.

Why I’m Changing My Mind and Opposing the Ex-Im Bank Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Rick Perry (WSJ) May 5, 2015
There are better ways to help businesses flourish. For starters, cut the sky-high U.S. corporate tax rate.

Unforeseen effects of Chinese medicine Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) May 6, 2015
China’s new diplomacy is starting to look like soft power.

Investors must prepare for lower returns Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Madigan (FT) May 6, 2015
Low valuations allow room for error but shares are no longer cheap.

Shale more like dotcom than Lehman bubble Financial Times Subscription Required
Ed Crooks (FT) May 6, 2015
How David Einhorn flagged up important weaknesses in shale oil business model.

China pledges USD 500,000 to support WTO accession and least-developed countries
WTO May 6, 2015
The government of China has pledged to contribute USD 500,000 (CHF 465,093) to the WTO’s Least Developed Countries and Accessions Programme (also known as the China Programme) for 2015.

Open Up, Europe! Let Migrants In. New York Times Subscription Required
Philippe Legrain (NYT) May 6, 2015
Letting in millions more migrants makes good economic sense.

The ‘exorbitant privilege’ and its stubborn costs
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) May 6, 2015
The dollar’s status as dominant global currency is tough on American manufacturers.

With Rates Near Zero, Gold Displays Its Resilience
Anne Szustek (II) May 6, 2015
The price of the yellow metal depends in large part on investor sentiment — in more than one sense of the word.

Asia - Stabilizing and Outperforming Other Regions
IMF Survey May 6, 2015
Growth in Asia and the Pacific will continue to outperform the rest of the world, and is expected to remain steady at 5.6 percent in 2015, easing slightly to 5.5 percent in 2016, according to the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific.

Oil's Rebound Is Here
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) May 6, 2015
Saudis, frackers and hedge funds may have created a new equilibrium.

A Market Moved 1,110 Percent But You Shouldn't Care
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 6, 2015
When the world's leading investors say sell, what happens next?

Buy Back or Pay Forward?
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2015
The pharmaceutical industry likes to argue that companies need to be guaranteed a robust return on investments if they are to invest in new treatments. And yet there is a good reason why drug firms should help solve the problem of antimicrobial resistance: enlightened self-interest.

A Blueprint for Greece’s Recovery
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2015
Months of negotiations between Greece’s government and the International Monetary Fund, the European Union, and the European Central Bank have produced little progress. To break the current impasse, it is necessary to envisage a healthy Greek economy.

Data for Development
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2015
The data revolution is rapidly transforming every part of society. With a bit of investment and foresight, spelled out in a new UN report, it can also drive a sustainable development revolution, and accelerate progress toward ending poverty, promoting social inclusion, and protecting the environment.

Income inequality and citizenship
Branko Milanovic (VoxEU) May 6, 2015
Our level of income is unarguably dependent on where we live in the world. But evidencing this is tricky. This column presents a model that explains global income variability using one variable only – where you live. The results suggest that we might want to reassess how we think about both economic migration and global inequality of opportunity.

China’s anti-corruption drive hits the economy Financial Times Subscription Required
Jingzhou Tao (FT) May 7, 2015
Graft has been so rampant that there is barely an official who can claim to be untainted.

EU weakness shows in bid to flex its ABS Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) May 7, 2015
Attempt to revive ‘sliced and diced’ loans put on back burner.

India: Learning a hard lesson Financial Times Subscription Required
Amy Kazmin (FT) May 7, 2015
While billions are spent on new schools to boost literacy and growth, teaching standards lag behind Read

Triumph of the Unthinking New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) May 8, 2015
It is easier to appeal to voters with nonsense economics than to think things through.

WTO Chief Urges Members to Redouble Negotiating Efforts as July Deadline Approaches
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 16 May 7, 2015
The ongoing efforts to craft a Doha Round work programme have seen "positive engagement" in recent weeks, WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo said on Tuesday. However, the global trade chief warned that members need to "redouble" their efforts and start tackling certain "gateway issues" if they are to meet their July deadline.

EU Trade Chief Suggests New Investment Court Amid ISDS, Right to Regulate Debate
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 16 May 7, 2015
EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström has called for the creation of a permanent multilateral court and appellate mechanism to arbitrate investment disputes, as part of a broader set of proposals on how to improve the functioning of the controversial investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism in trade deals.

EU, ASEAN Consider Trade Talks Reboot
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 16 May 7, 2015
The EU and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are planning to explore the option of resuming their long-stalled region-to-region trade talks, officials from both sides confirmed late last month.

Greece Saunters Across the Autobahn
Michael Lewis (Bloomberg View) May 7, 2015
Watch out for the euro wreck.

Germany v. Google
Philippe Legrain (Project Syndicate) May 7, 2015
The key driver of the EU’s onslaught against American tech companies is not concern for the welfare of ordinary Europeans; it is the lobbying power of protectionist German businesses. Rather than try to protect its digital flops, Germany should practice what it preaches and make the difficult reforms it needs to raise its game.

New and Improved Trade Agreements?
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) May 7, 2015
Though trade agreements are unpopular nowadays, particularly in the US, the truth is that previous agreements benefited America and the world. So the most straightforward argument for the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership and other agreements now under discussion is that similar economic benefits are likely to follow.

High Costs of Cheap Oil
Deepak Gopinath (YaleGlobal) May 7, 2015
Low energy prices lock the world into fossil-fuel consumption and infrastructure – new taxes could encourage alternative

Runs in opaque markets: Panic of 1907
Caroline Fohlin, Thomas Gehrig and Marlene Haas (VoxEU) May 7, 2015
The story of the run-up to the Global Crisis is, unfortunately, not an entirely new one. This column argues that regulators would do well to read up on the ‘Panic of 1907’. What quelled rumours and panicky behaviour back then still applies – maintaining market liquidity through measures that encourage transparency.

Will the TPP really protect workers?
Richard Trumka (WP) May 8, 2015
Enforcement of terms in past trade agreements has been mediocre.

How Should Developing Nations Grow?
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 8, 2015
They are worlds apart and have different needs.

What Now for Britain and Europe?
Giles Merritt (Project Syndicate) May 8, 2015
The surprise result of the United Kingdom’s general election, which will return Prime Minister David Cameron and the Conservative Party to power for another five years, suggests that Britain’s voters prefer the devil they know to the devil they don’t. That may also apply, one hopes, to European Union membership.

China’s Green-Energy Revolution
John A. Mathews and Hao Tan (Project Syndicate) May 8, 2015
China generates most of its electricity by burning fossil fuels, just as every rising economic power has done since the Industrial Revolution. But to focus on this risks overlooking a notable trend: China's system of power generation is turning green far more quickly than any other system of comparable size on the planet.

Inequality, Immigration, and Hypocrisy
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) May 8, 2015
Europe’s migration crisis exposes a fundamental flaw, if not towering hypocrisy, in the ongoing debate about economic inequality. Wouldn’t a true progressive support equal opportunity for all people on the planet, rather than just for those of us lucky enough to have been born and raised in rich countries?

The missing piece in the EMU puzzle
Bruno Maçães (VoxEU) May 8, 2015
Europe’s institutional architecture is evolving in response to the EZ Crisis and years of economic malaise. This column, by Portugal’s Secretary of State for Europe, argues a flexible institutional framework that allows for stronger economic policy coordination, convergence and solidarity.

The strategic under-reporting of banks’ risk
Taylor Begley, Amiyatosh Purnanandam and Kuncheng Zheng (VoxEU) May 8, 2015
A key regulatory response to the Global Crisis has involved higher risk-weighted capital requirements. This column documents systematic under-reporting of risk by banks that gets worse when the system is under stress. Thus banks’ self-reported levels of risk are least informative in states of the world when accurate risk measurement matters the most.

Ageing and pensions
Pablo Antolín-Nicolás (OECD Insights) May 9, 2015
Pension systems of all types are facing crucial and far-reaching challenges because of demographic trends, the continuing impacts of the economic crisis, and the environment of low growth, low returns and low yields. As a result, meeting pension commitments and having adequate pensions could become quite a challenge. The OECD Pensions Outlook 2014 discusses ways in which countries are addressing all these challenges, including the demographic challenge.

David Cameron’s Europe
Carl Bildt (Project Syndicate) May 9, 2015
Reelected with a resounding majority in the House of Commons, Prime Minister David Cameron must use his increased mandate to set out an EU reform package that is attractive to all member states, not just to British Euroskeptics. If he does, he could set in motion a process that leaves Europe stronger than before.

Labour power sets the neutral real rate
Toby Nangle (VoxEU) May 9, 2015
The recent remarkably low interest rates have puzzled economists. The standard explanation rests on the extraordinary manoeuvres of the world’s largest central banks. This column argues, however, that it is due to economic developments, specifically globalisation and the collapse in labour power in the west.

Growth in Mature Economies: The Second CEPR-Modena Conference
Isabella Rota Baldini and Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke (VoxEU) Mar 9, 2015
The 7-8 November 2013 conference in Modena was the second in a series of events aimed at sharing different ideas and perspectives on a key policy issue – what can stimulate sustained growth in economies that cannot simply add more capital or import technologies developed abroad? This is an important question not only in the short run, as Europe struggles to emerge from recession, but also over the longer term as population ageing begins to affect these mature economies.

The Science of Scarcity
Cara Feinberg (Harvard Mag) May 9, 2015
A behavioral economist’s fresh perspectives on poverty.

Fiscal shocks in a globalised world
Alan J Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko (VoxEU) May 10, 2015
The effect of fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity is of key interest to policymakers and academics alike. However, identifying fiscal shocks in the data is challenging. This column uses daily data to evaluate the effect of government defence spending on forward-looking variables. The results indicate that government spending shocks lead to an appreciation of the domestic currency. This findings does not hold if low-frequency data are used instead.

The end of the Golden Arches doctrine Financial Times Subscription Required
Edward Luce (FT) May 10, 2015
After decades of agreeing to lower global barriers, we are as likely to put up new ones.

Wall Street Vampires New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) May 10, 2015
The plot against financial reform continues, despite the fact that one important measure is actually working.

Is Indonesia's President Too Democratic?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 10, 2015
Attacking multinational companies attracts applause, but not investment.

Brazil's Only Hope Is Mr. Market
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) May 10, 2015
Brazil's energy minister invites foreign investors to join the fray.

China’s rule of law plan is for real
Rogier Creemers (EAF) May 10, 2015
While it is tempting to dismiss China's recent moves as mere ideological posturing, China’s intentions for rule of law are genuine.

Monetary policy and credit costs
Mark Gertler, Peter Karadi (VoxEU) Mar 10, 2015
Evidence of the impact of monetary policy on economic activity supports conventional models with nominal rigidities. This column highlights the importance of the ‘credit channel’ of monetary policy. Unanticipated tightening produces a significant drop in real activity. However, monetary policy responses produce large movements in credit costs, which are due to the reaction of term premia and credit spreads. Therefore, to account for credit costs, it might be necessary to amend macroeconomic models to control for term premia and credit spreads.

Russians need ideas for life after Putin Financial Times Subscription Required
Evgeny Gontmakher (FT) May 11, 2015
We should engage with the west as equals, not as wards.

A gilded retirement for China’s elders Financial Times Subscription Required
Patti Waldmeir (FT) May 11, 2015
The same Communist party that took away their youth is allowing them to enjoy their dotage.

Unsustainable bank levy ripe for reform Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) May 11, 2015
Osborne should resist milking lenders harder.

Trade Wars in Congress New York Times Subscription Required
NYT May 11, 2015
A compromise on a trade bill is still possible and would be good for the American economy.

The Federal Reserve Asset Bubble Machine Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Ruchir Sharma (WSJ) May 11, 2015
Easy money is driving up the price of stocks, bonds, houses and other assets in a era without historical precedent.

The Senate’s Trade Killers Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ May 11, 2015
Harry Reid and Rob Portman are the strange bedfellows of U.S. decline.

Where German bonds lead the world follows Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) May 11, 2015
Bund yields will remain low in historical terms.

Three Ways Latin America Can Turn a Crisis into a Positive
Anders Borg (PIIE) May 11, 2015
It is hard to believe, after a few days at the Mexican coast, but the sunny days are over for Latin America. The sunshine might come back, but the next few quarters will be challenging.

Democracy in Retreat
Ellen Bork (WA/Democracy Road) May 11, 2015
Regimes in countries like China, Russia, and Iran don’t even try to hide their contempt for democracy anymore. Will the next American president do more to fight back?

China's Baby Steps Toward Economic Disaster
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2015
Small tweaks can't fix the country's big problems.

International Norms in Cyberspace
Joseph S. Nye (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2015
Strategic studies of the cyber domain resemble nuclear strategy in the 1950s: analysts are still not clear about the meaning of offense, defense, deterrence, escalation, norms, and arms control. But international agreement on some issues may be within reach.

Western Politics’ Locust Years
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2015
Many mainstream political parties in the West are so busy playing defense that they are forgoing the strategic thinking needed to re-energize growth models, anchor financial stability, and ensure that technological innovation enables broad-based prosperity. As a result, Western economies may be undermining their future potential.

Greening China’s Financial System
Ma Jun and Simon Zadek (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2015
As emerging countries’ capital markets become increasingly central to the international financial system, a critical issue is whether sustainable-development principles underpin their operations. Fortunately, the answer so far seems to be yes.

Homesick Politics
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2015
Faced with political and economic uncertainty, policymakers have increasingly succumbed to the allure of nostalgia, promising a return to a supposedly simpler and more predictable world. But attempting to recreate yesterday's order is a surefire way to miss the challenges – and miss out on the opportunities – of today.

Triggering savings among the poor
Vincent Somville and Lore Vandewalle (VoxEU) May 11, 2015
Making transfers to bank accounts instead of paying cash could potentially enhance savings. This column tests this hypothesis using a randomised trial from India. The evidence suggests that being paid on the account increases the balance by around 110% within three months of weekly payments. The individuals who were paid in cash do not save more in other assets, such as cash at home, but increase consumption.

Monetary Policy and the Independence Dilemma
John C. Williams (FRBSF Econ Letter) May 11, 2015
The dilemma of central bank independence has been around a long time. Past attempts to solve it through an operational mandate such as the gold standard have proven ineffective. The alternative approach of achieving economic goals through reliance on a fixed policy rule also poses practical challenges. A more promising path is to enhance accountability and transparency within an existing goal mandate framework.

Modi’s India has sparks but no boom Financial Times Subscription Required
Swaminathan Aiyar (FT) May 12, 2015
The central bank governor is openly sceptical of the official data.

Good corporations should drive the economy Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) May 12, 2015
If effective, they make a positive contribution to the social and physical environment.

Welcome outbreak of sanity for bonds Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) May 12, 2015
Jump in yields last week shows market signalling function still works.

The embattled future of global trade policy Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) May 12, 2015
Trade deals must not become an alternative to the WTO.

Rally does not herald commodities boom Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) May 12, 2015
Debate about worth of Asian groups must be seen in different context.

Democrats hand Obama a stinging defeat on trade deal
Dana Milbank (WP) May 12, 2015
More power to the populists.

Greece Inches Closer to an Accident
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2015
The probability of failure is now around 50 percent.

Greece's Payment Plan Is a Shell Game
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2015
Athens just wrote itself a check to cover its debts.

Free-Trade Opponents Get Desperate
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2015
TPP adversaries like Elizabeth Warren are making less and less sense.

Robots Versus the Middle Class
Bloomberg View May 12, 2015
Automation will probably help everyone in the long run. In the short run....

Reversing Africa’s Medical Brain Drain
Serufusa Sekidde (Project Syndicate) May 12, 2015
There is understandable consternation over Uganda’s plans to send almost 300 health workers to Trinidad and Tobago in exchange for help developing its oil fields. But the truth is that Uganda may have stumbled on a policy that could actually benefit both the health-care sector and the country.

The Paradox of Identity Politics
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) May 12, 2015
For decades, political debate in Europe focused largely on economic institutions and policies. But, with the growing success of appeals to identity and renewed ethnic or religious nationalism, that is changing, leaving officials less able to address the causes of popular frustration.

Why are analysts ratings and equity prices now going in opposite directions?
Nick Kirrage (Pieria) May 12, 2015
The gap between analysts’ ratings and price levels in the equity market has never been wider. What's going on?

The Global Implications of Diverging Monetary Policy Settings in Advanced Economies
William C. Dudley (FRBNY) May 12, 2015
I will focus my remarks on the global implications of U.S. monetary policy normalization—paying particular attention to the potential implications for emerging market economies (EMEs).

Financing for development: The policy and research agenda
Christopher Adam, Ugo Panizza, Andrea F Presbitero and David Vines (VoxEU) May 12, 2015
World leaders are preparing for the third International Conference on Financing for Development in Addis. More money may help, but may also make things worse due to aid dependence, Dutch disease, and/or unsustainable debt. This column argues that the political discussion needs to be accompanied by more, and better data and research on how financing can support sustainable development.

Understanding Investment Opportunities in China
Eric J. Mogelof, Luke Spajic, Haining Yin and Isaac Meng (PIMCO) May 12, 2015
China is in the midst of opening its markets to global investors while encouraging local investment abroad. China's offshore markets remain heavily traded, and the government is now providing access to its onshore markets in several key ways.

India should carve its tax code in stone Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) May 13, 2015
A company thinks it has settled its bill, next minute it is being hit for billions in retroactive levies.

Questions on Nigeria’s lost oil billions Financial Times Subscription Required
Lamido Sanusi (FT) May 13, 2015
Lines of investigation suggested by the PwC audit need to be pursued.

Why an open Iran offers extensive upsides Financial Times Subscription Required
Jay Pelosky (FT) May 13, 2015
A nuclear deal could stimulate an accelerated transition and pave the way to stability and growth.

Central Asia: After the strongmen Financial Times Subscription Required
Jack Farchy (FT) May 13, 2015
The succession question of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan grows more urgent.

Trade measure is anything but a race to the bottom for U.S. producers
Charles Lane (WP) May 13, 2015
Opponents of Trans-Pacific Partnership are flat-out wrong when they say it will be a job destroyer

US Senate Lawmakers Reach Deal to Advance TPA Legislation
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 17 May 13, 2015
US Senate leaders announced on Wednesday that they had reached a deal to advance legislation that would grant President Barack Obama with renewed "fast track" trade powers, less than 24 hours after efforts to begin debate on the legislation had been blocked in that chamber.

EU, Mexico Eye Trade Deal Upgrade
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 17 May 13, 2015
The EU and Mexico confirmed plans this week to update a bilateral trade deal between them, citing the need to reflect new trade realities and build off the advances being made in other major trade negotiations.

G-20 Agriculture Ministers Warn of Global Food Wastage
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 17 May 13, 2015
Agriculture ministers from the G-20 group of major advanced and emerging economies have warned that global food wastage could have devastating consequences for food security, nutrition, and the use of natural resources and the environment, following a 7-8 May meeting in the Turkish city of Istanbul.

Does Germany's Business Climate Live Up to Its Reputation?
Vijay Khosa (PIIE) May 13, 2015
At a time when calls for structural and labor reform are echoing throughout Europe, Germany has maintained a reputation for fostering a business-friendly investment climate. This reputation results partly from the structural reforms undertaken in the early 2000s. Recent evidence from the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index indicates, however, that improvements in Germany's business environment have stalled and even deteriorated, and some aspects are below euro area averages.

'Father of Euro' Knew It Was a Problem Child
Stephen Mihm (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2015
A warning that European monetary union wouldn't succeed without fiscal integration.

Depositors Flee Greece as Recession Rolls In
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2015
The stalemate with Europe hasn't come cheap.

Man Who Brought Down Barings Warns on China
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2015
Nick Leeson says regulators can't keep tabs on surging stocks.

Talent versus Capital in the Twenty-First Century
Klaus Schwab (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2015
When financial policymakers attempt to promote economic growth, they almost invariably focus on looking for new ways to unleash capital. But, though this approach may have worked in the past, it risks giving short shrift to the role that talent plays in generating and realizing the ideas that make growth possible.

Why Greece is Different
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2015
With Greece’s economy tanking again, the country’s government is convinced that the terms of the bailout deal it made with its international creditors, including continued austerity, must be renegotiated. But austerity is not Greece's problem; exports are.

The Secret Corporate Takeover
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2015
A great debate over new trade agreements is underway around the world. But the terms of such agreements are effectively being dictated by the US, and they go well beyond trade, imposing fundamental changes on countries’ legal, judicial, and regulatory frameworks, without democratic input or accountability.

The Puzzle of Liberal Democracy
Dani Rodrik and Sharun Mukand (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2015
Though more than 60% of the world’s countries are electoral democracies, the majority of these regimes fail to provide equal protection under the law. Whatever the reason for the emergence of democracies that uphold property, political, and civil rights at the same time, we should not be surprised by how uncommon they are.

Determinants of slowing investment in emerging markets
Nicolas Magud and Sebastián Sosa (VoxEU) May 13, 2015
Emerging markets are not the hot investment prospect they used to be. This column estimates that weaker private investment in these nations is a slowdown after a period of boom rather than an outright slump. Prospects for a recovery of business investment, however, are not promising. Commodity prices are expected to remain weak and external financial conditions are set to become tighter.

Death, taxes and compulsory saving Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) May 14, 2015
Forced saving is like paying tax, particularly if the state contributes for the poorest.

Reasons not to see start of ‘big one’ in Europe’s bond swings Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) May 14, 2015
Treasury yields have been taking their cue from Bunds, but we are not yet on the brink.

Brazil: Oily mess Financial Times Subscription Required
Joe Leahy (FT) May 14, 2015
A multi-billion dollar bribery scandal at Petrobras has shaken the ruling Workers’ party and former president Lula da Silva.

Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying New York Times Subscription Required
Andrew E. Kramer (NYT) May 14, 2015
The move is a result of the strength of the Russian currency, which is up 21 percent this year, and will limit its rise.

The Mystery of Declining Productivity Growth Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) May 14, 2015
The healthy 2.6% a year from 1995-2010 has since been an anemic 0.4%. What’s scary is that we don’t know why.

Save Obama (on trade)
Charles Krauthammer (WP) May 14, 2015
Think long-term, because the U.S. relationship with Asia will outlast this president.

Cognitive Dissonance on Trade
John Cassidy (New Yorker) May 14, 2015
Obama is seeking to persuade skeptical Democrats on Capitol Hill to give him the power to complete the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Grexit and Brexit: Some Stunning Parallels
Denis MacShane (Globalist) May 14, 2015
Both Greece and Britain could face referendums that would change their place in Europe.

Monetary Policy at Warp Speed
Harley Bassman (PIMCO) May 14, 2015
Some central banks are now purposely creating negative interest rates in an effort to nudge investors outward along the risk spectrum. This policy could lead to some unexpected consequences. Due to investors' general tendency toward risk aversion, both implied and realized volatility around the zero line may be higher than what risk models expect. Another unconsidered consequence of negative rates concerns the risk management of financial derivatives. Most option pricing models cannot readily accommodate the negative rate dynamic.

Solving the $450 Billion Bond Rout Mystery
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 14, 2015
Markets went south because Europe looks good.

The Strategic Imperative of TTIP
Jiri Sedivy (Project Syndicate) May 14, 2015
As negotiations between the EU and US over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership move toward agreement, opponents of the proposed pact are becoming more vocal. And yet the TTIP could turn out to be the most important bulwark of transatlantic unity since the creation of NATO.

Russia’s Indefensible Military Budget
Sergei Guriev (Project Syndicate) May 14, 2015
If Russia's military spending continues at its current pace, the country will deplete its reserve fund before the end of the year. If Russia could not afford a 4%-of-GDP defense budget in good times, it cannot possibly manage it now, when the country confronts rock-bottom oil prices, Western sanctions, and economic recession.

An Economics to Fit the Facts
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) May 14, 2015
The economics profession was arguably the first casualty of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. But, as with the global economy, there is reason to hope that the discipline is on the mend.

The importance of leadership for Asia’s Development
Emanuele Schibotto (OECD Insights) May 14, 2015
Asia’s development has been so successful that it has been labelled a “miracle.” However, if this is true for economic growth, the picture looks far less impressive if you look at other dimensions of economic development. That is why a return of leadership is needed.

What monetary policy committees should vote on
Carl-Andreas Claussen and Øistein Røisland (VoxEU) May 14, 2015
The so-called ‘discursive dilemma’ in collective decision-making implies that the policy choice of a monetary policy committee depends on whether it votes directly on policy, or whether it votes on the underlying economic judgements – the ‘premises’ for the decision. This column argues that the monetary policy committees should vote on the premises. This gives better decisions, better explanations and better monetary policy communication.

The role of culture on democratisation
Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gérard Roland (VoxEU) May 14, 2015
Social science studies usually explain democratisation of countries with the increase in incomes. In contrast, this column argues that culture is a neglected but important determinant of democracy. The findings show that countries with individualist culture democratise earlier than collectivist cultures that may remain stuck for a long time with relatively efficient autocracies.

Don’t Be So Sure the Economy Will Return to Normal New York Times Subscription Required
Tyler Cowen (NYT) May 15, 2015
As postrecession problems linger, the question arises about whether we are witnessing a fundamental shift.

Why Syriza Will Blink
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) May 15, 2015
The Greek government, led by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s Syriza party, believes that the threat of default gives it leverage in its debt negotiations with the EU. But the authorities’ calculation is based on the false premise that Europe has no choice but to expel Greece from the eurozone or offer it unconditional relief.

Credit access and technology adoption: Evidence from Russia
Cagatay Bircan and Ralph De Haas (VoxEU) May 15, 2015
Innovation enhances economic growth but the mechanisms that underpin the spread of products remain largely unclear. Based on new micro-data from Russia, this column argues that access to credit helps firms to adopt products and production processes that are new to them. However, there is little evidence that bank credit stimulates in-house R&D. Thus, banks can facilitate the diffusion of technologies within developing countries but their role in pushing the technological frontier is limited.

The rise of the digital capital economy
Irving Wladawsky-Berger (Pieria) May 15, 2015
A major transition is now taking place in our digital economy.

The impact of fracked shale gas
Catherine Hausman and Ryan Kellogg (VoxEU) May 15, 2015
The economic and environmental impacts of the US fracking boom are hotly debated. This column argues that there’s been a large positive impact on the US economy, estimating that the benefits to producers and consumers totalled $48 billion in 2013, or around one-third of 1% of US GDP. The climate change impacts have been large, but they do not outweigh the private gains. However, a lack of data on the impacts to water, air, and seismic activity hamper policymakers effectively targeting the areas of greatest concern and hamper them drawing up effective regulation.

The Missing Arrow of Abenomics
Seki Obata and Georges Desvaux (Project Syndicate) May 15, 2015
Debate about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's public-policy reforms has largely crowded out discussion of the private sector’s role in economic revitalization. But Japan’s ability to achieve faster growth depends on whether companies take the steps needed to boost productivity.

Channeling China’s Aspirations
Mark Roe (Project Syndicate) May 15, 2015
The closer China’s economic ties with the rest of the world become, the more it will have to lose from a breakdown in international relations. It is better that China be convinced that economic engagement is the best way to project power than for its leaders to conclude that military confrontation is the only viable path to respect.

Past Time to Reform Bretton Woods New York Times Subscription Required
NYT May 16, 2015
Developing nations should play larger roles in the I.M.F. and the World Bank.

Tax-free debt: The great distortion Economist Subscription Required
Economist May 16, 2015
Subsidies that make borrowing irresistible need to be phased out

China: Peaceful Rise to Great Power Status Won’t Be Easy!
Jean-Pierre Lehmann (Globalist) May 16, 2015
Can the West constructively encourage China’s peaceful rise?

Building the Global Schoolhouse
Gordon Brown (Project Syndicate) May 16, 2015
Despite a commitment by the international community to guarantee universal primary education, many of the world’s most marginalized children remain out of school. As the world works to offer every child the possibility of attending secondary school by 2030, the key challenge will be to secure the necessary funding.

Limits of Eurozone national risk-sharing
Harald Benink and Harry Huizinga (VoxEU) May 16, 2015
QE in the Eurozone is unusual in that the risks of sovereign debt defaults are shared between the ECB and the national central banks. This column argues that if such risk sharing were applied to the Outright Monetary Transactions programme, it could potentially create insolvency problems for countries with large public debts, especially in a low-growth scenario.

Central bankers prepare for divergence Financial Times Subscription Required
Ferdinando Giugliano (FT) May 17, 2015
Immediate danger facing global economy lies in when exactly US’s rate lift-off will take place.

Ukraine merits debt reduction Financial Times Subscription Required
Lawrence Summers (FT) May 17, 2015
Failure to cut burden would confirm view that private interests influence public policy too much.

How to combat threat of Asian deflation Financial Times Subscription Required
Frederic Neumann (FT) May 17, 2015
Trend is not temporary and should not be ignored.

Narendra Modi: One direction Financial Times Subscription Required
Victor Mallet and James Crabtree (FT) May 17, 2015
A year after he became prime minister the economy is growing, yet business is restless.

In Ukraine, Corruption Concerns Linger a Year After a Revolution New York Times Subscription Required
David M. Herszenhorn (NYT) May 17, 2015
The new government led by Petro O. Poroshenko has largely failed to deliver on promises to root out endemic corruption and has become ensnared in new allegations of misconduct.

An American Trade Watershed Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ May 17, 2015
The stakes are large for the country, and the Republican Party.

The next Smoot-Hawley
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) May 17, 2015
China’s currency manipulation isn’t the issue.

India: Maneuvering Among China, the US, Europe and Russia
Sanjeev S. Ahluwalia (Globalist) May 17, 2015
Prime Minister Modi faces a real foreign policy "trilemma"

Greece's Turn to Resist a Referendum
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 17, 2015
The government would lose, whatever the outcome.

The New Economics of Having It All
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) May 17, 2015
You can't escape the trade-off between equality and efficiency.

The Real Winners in Modi's India
Pankaj Mishra (Bloomberg View) May 17, 2015
Farmers and CEOs are disappointed. Not Hindu nationalists.

Janet Yellen Takes a Back Seat to China
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 17, 2015
Washington has less sway over the global economy.

Keep currency clauses out of the global trading system
Sourabh Gupta (EAF) May 17, 2015
Injecting enforceable currency disciplines into the cross-border trading regime is disingenuous. It is also quite probably illegal.

Global banks turning more local
Gaston Gelos and Frederic Lambert (VoxEU) May 17, 2015
Since the Global Crisis, international banks have reduced cross-border lending but continued to lend through their branches and affiliates overseas. This column argues that the observed shift was to a significant extent driven by regulatory changes. It should improve financial stability in host countries of foreign banks.Since the Global Crisis, international banks have reduced cross-border lending but continued to lend through their branches and affiliates overseas. This column argues that the observed shift was to a significant extent driven by regulatory changes. It should improve financial stability in host countries of foreign banks.

India aims to match China’s power game Financial Times Subscription Required
Victor Mallet (FT) May 18, 2015
Modi takes to the road to show regional states that he can also be a good neighbour.

Obama’s trade deal will not tame China Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) May 18, 2015
The TPP is not a significant enough step to justify all the geopolitical hopes invested in it.

Turkey: A flagging growth story Financial Times Subscription Required
Daniel Dombey (FT) May 18, 2015
Erdogan has blamed the central bank and political opponents for the slowdown, while critics blame him.

The U.S. Underestimates Growth Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Martin Feldstein (WSJ) May 18, 2015
The official statistics are missing changes that are lifting American incomes.

Rise of the Trader-Bots
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) May 18, 2015
The algorithms running today’s market are fast and sophisticated, but easily duped.

Is the World Getting Safer? Maybe Not
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2015
War has not become as rare as we like to think.

In Defense of Nafta
Bloomberg View May 18, 2015
Nafta didn't suppress wages, cause huge job losses or inflate trade deficits.

What Do Rich Countries Have in Common? Big Government
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2015
Weak and poor countries have just the opposite.

China's Great Academic Leap Forward
Peter R. Orszag (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2015
One way the two great powers cooperate.

China Needs a Grown-Up Central Bank
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2015
The country's economic policy is far too erratic.


Marcel Fratzscher, Jürgen Fitschen and Reiner Hoffmann (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2015
The German economy’s enviable combination of strong growth, low unemployment, favorable financing conditions, and large budget surpluses masks long-term vulnerability. To place the economy on a stronger footing – and to help pull Europe out of its malaise – will require substantially higher public and private investment.

Inspiring Economic Growth
Robert J. Shiller (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2015
In his First Inaugural Address, during the depths of the Great Depression, US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt famously told Americans that, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” The same could be said today, seven years after the 2008 global financial crisis, about the world economy’s remaining weak spots.

Educating for Sustainable Development
Irina Bokova and Christiana Figueres (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2015
This year, the international community will adopt a new global development strategy and negotiate a universal deal to combat climate change. The key to success on both fronts is to bring about a fundamental shift in how we think, act, and discharge our responsibilities toward one another and the planet.

Modi in China
Brahma Chellaney (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2015
Since taking office last year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sought to transform his country’s relationship with China, arguing that Asia’s prospects hinge largely on their partnership. But, as Modi’s just-concluded tour of China highlighted, the issues that divide the world’s demographic titans remain formidable.

A Battle Rages over the TPP to Re-write Global Rules
Knowledge@Wharton May 18, 2015
The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership has many wondering about its potential impact on the U.S. economy, and on the competitiveness of U.S. multinationals in the years ahead.

Globalisation and the gender wage gap
Esther Ann Bøler, Beata Javorcik and Karen-Helene Ulltveit-Moe (VoxEU) May 18, 2015
The gender wage gap persists even in gender equal societies such as the Nordic countries. This column suggests that globalisation may play a role in that. The authors show that exporting firms have higher gender wage gaps although the effect is only present among college graduates. The heightened competition faced by exporters requires greater commitment and flexibility on the part of the workers, which leads to statistical gender discrimination.

The wary retreat of the bond bulls Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) May 19, 2015
Long fall and recent collapses in nominal and real yields on safe securities should be at an end.

UK productivity puzzle Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) May 19, 2015
Employment is up, working hours are up, so why is output down?

A bogus argument against the trade deal
Ruth Marcus (WP) May 19, 2015
Secrecy is a phony reason to scuttle the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Six Ways to Reduce Corruption in Greece
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) May 19, 2015
Drawing on my experience in the government of Bulgaria, I offered six ways Greece can reduce corruption in a speech at the Emergency Economic Summit for Greece today in Athens. These guidelines are universal and apply to any country.

Indonesia at a Critical Juncture
John West (Globalist) May 19, 2015
Great political and social hurdles stand in the way of Indonesia's development.

A Report Card for Asia's 'Axis of Reform'
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2015
How do leaders of China, India and Japan measure up?

When Central Bankers Whisper Secrets
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2015
You'd think institutions facing scrutiny would aim to plug leaks, right? Wrong.

Will the U.S. Ever Grow Fast Again?
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2015
If so, what should be done about it?

India's Man of the Future Must Break With Past
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2015
'Creative incrementalism' won't get Narendra Modi where he or India want to go.

Greece's True Deadline May be May 29
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2015
As Greece approaches the mathematical limit of its entitlements under the ELA program, the ECB may find itself in the untenable position of acting as judge, jury and executioner.

The Modi Government Turns One
Shashi Tharoor (Project Syndicate) May 19, 2015
India’s Bharatiya Janata Party government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will mark its first anniversary in office this month. While it is too early to assess its overall performance, the overwhelming sentiment across India so far is one of disappointment.

No Child Left Out
Moza bint Nasser (Project Syndicate) May 19, 2015
UNESCO estimates that at least 250 million of the world’s children of primary-school age are unable to read, write, or do basic arithmetic. This week, the international community will have a chance to redress this scandalous state of affairs when policymakers meet at the World Education Forum to agree on new global targets.

A Net Assessment of the World
George Friedman (Stratfor) May 19, 2015
A pretentious title requires a modest beginning. The world has increasingly destabilized and it is necessary to try to state, as clearly as possible, what has happened and why. This is not because the world is uniquely disorderly; it is that disorder takes a different form each time, though it is always complex.

Secular stagnation: History of a heresy
Roger Backhouse and Mauro Boianovsky (VoxEU) May 19, 2015
The notion of secular stagnation – a state of negligible or zero economic growth – is back in the headlines. Questions naturally arise about its intellectual antecedents. This column discusses how the concept rose and fell with the economic fortunes of advanced industrialised nations. Political trends and trends in economic theory played a part in its trajectory, with the notion closely connected to the idea that the level of government debt should be allowed to rise.

Investors on ‘safe asset’ starvation diet Financial Times Subscription Required
Ewen Cameron Watt (FT) May 20, 2015
What happens when shortage shrinks: indigestion or big sell-off?

Drill deeper than oil for Saudi prosperity Financial Times Subscription Required
John Sfakianakis (FT) May 20, 2015
Important reforms centre on energy, which kingdom uses wastefully.

Periphery holds while centre falls apart Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) May 20, 2015
QE has induced volatility in German bonds and relative calm elsewhere.

Europe: The British question Financial Times Subscription Required
George Parker and Alex Barker (FT) May 20, 2015
David Cameron must balance pursuit of a reformed EU against the anger of his party’s eurosceptic fringe.

Polish Lessons for the Ukrainian Economy
Wolfgang Schüssel (Globalist) May 20, 2015
Austria' Former Prime Minister asks: Can Ukraine fix its dire economic situation by taking lessons from Poland?

3 Asian Economies With Room for Improvement
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2015
South Korea and Indonesia fall behind the Philippines.

A World of Underinvestment
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2015
After World War II, policymakers recognized that deleveraging depended on nominal economic growth, which in turn depended on a global recovery. Like them, today’s policymakers should use – and even stretch – their balance sheets for investment, while opening themselves up to international trade.

Smart Development Targets
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2015
Over the next 15 years, the international community will spend $2.5 trillion on development, with national budgets contributing countless trillions more. Nineteen targets identified by the Copenhagen Consensus can help the world’s governments to concentrate on key priorities.

The Irresistible Rise of the Renminbi
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2015
By the end of this year, the IMF will decide whether the Chinese renminbi will join the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the US dollar in the basket of currencies that determines the value of its international reserve asset, the Special Drawing Right. The benefits of admitting China’s currency far outweigh the costs.

Development Finance with Chinese Characteristics?
Richard Kozul-Wright and Daniel Poon (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2015
China-led initiatives like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund have been criticized as efforts to displace existing bodies like the World Bank. But China and its partners seem less interested in supplanting current institutions than in improving upon them.

Staying the Course in Europe’s East
Carl Bildt (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2015
The EU summit in Riga with the “Eastern Partnership” countries recalls the dramatic Vilnius meeting in November 2013, where Ukraine’s president, under heavy Russian pressure, refused to sign the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. Russia’s behavior since then has made the Eastern Partnership more important than ever.

Behavioural development economics
Allison Demeritt, Karla Hoff and James Walsh (VoxEU) May 20, 2015
Economists typically assume people behave in a rational and self-interested way, making standard models limited in their explanatory power. This column argues that psychological and sociological factors – though usually ignored in economic models – affect decision-making. The findings, drawn from the World Development Report, further suggest that better behavioural understanding could subsequently aid development efforts.

Trade-in-value-added indicators: Caveat emptor
Timothy J. Sturgeon (VoxEU) May 20, 2015
With global value chains that fragment production across the world, national statistics fail to capture the growing interconnectedness of economies. This column describes the international input-output tables that allow researchers to estimate the share of a country’s export value derived from imported inputs. However, while these tools offer promising uses, at the moment statistics on trade in value added should be treated with great caution.

How politics will seal the fate of Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) May 21, 2015
Can Europe really allow Athens to fall into the arms of Moscow?

Credit derivatives deserve a revival Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) May 21, 2015
Investors will need all the help — or instruments — they can find to hedge risks in the next year.

Europe has made tragedy a political crisis Financial Times Subscription Required
Peter Sutherland (FT) May 21, 2015
Europeans should help; not so long ago, they were the ones desperately asking.

Brazil and China reheat old news Financial Times Subscription Required
Joe Leahy (FT) May 21, 2015
While synergies between the two countries are self-evident, realising them has not been easy.

US Senate Trade Debate Approaches Critical Vote
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 18 May 21, 2015
The past week has marked a hectic period in Washington political circles, with US Senate lawmakers putting forward a flurry of amendments to proposed trade legislation ahead of a key vote expected later this week.

US Senate Signs Off on 10-Year AGOA Renewal
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 18 May 21, 2015
The US Senate passed legislation on 14 May to extend duty-free access to the US for Sub-Saharan African countries through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for another decade.

No Safe Haven in Hong Kong
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 21, 2015
The messiness of China's stock markets is spilling across the border.

The Way Out for Greece
Konstantine Gatsios (Bloomberg View) May 21, 2015
Don't send cash. Austerity isn't the problem.

China’s Factory Workers Are Becoming More Restive
Anita Chan (YaleGlobal) May 21, 2015
Hong Kong activists influence migrant workers in nearby Guangdong to demand enforcement of China’s labor laws

Beyond Universal Education
Fazle Hasan Abed (Project Syndicate) May 21, 2015
It is time for the UN and other international bodies to move beyond a singular focus on enrollment numbers and grapple with the problem of quality in education. A child’s potential is truly unleashed only when he or she learns to spot and seize the opportunities his or her parents never had.

Private capital flows, official development assistance, and remittances to Africa
Amadou Sy and Fenohasina Maret Rakotondrazaka (Brookings) May 21, 2015
External financial flows to sub-Saharan Africa have increased considerably over the past 20 years, from $20 billion in 1990 to above $120 billion in 2012, and the composition of these resources has also shifted—but to what extent have these changes equally benefited the countries in the region?

Sovereign rating changes: Understanding the asymmetries
Carmen Broto and Luis Molina (VoxEU) May 21, 2015
Credit ratings agencies have enormous power over countries in dire straits. But whether prevailing global economic conditions affect their assessments is rarely asked. This column suggests that credit ratings agencies overreact in downgrading countries credit ratings during times of economic crisis and instability, and underreact when upgrading during calmer times. This is bad news for policymakers who think that strong economic performance will get them back the credit rating they once took for granted.

Is the Ex-Im Bank Doomed? New York Times Subscription Required
Joe Nocera (NYT) May 22, 2015
Plenty of business, and jobs, will be lost if the bank ceases to exist.

Time to Rethink the Rupee
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) May 22, 2015
If Modi wants to create a manufacturing power, he needs a weaker currency.

Global Finance and Global Warming
Naina Lal Kidwai and Nick Robins (Project Syndicate) May 22, 2015
Since 2008, financial reform has been among the top items on policymakers’ agendas. But, as leaders move from fixing the problems of the past to positioning the financial system for the future, they must also grapple with new threats to its stability, particularly those stemming from climate change.

New-Model Development Finance
Anne-Marie Slaughter (Project Syndicate) May 22, 2015
China’s establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is the latest sign of a broader move away from the view that aid to developing countries is best provided in the form of massive government-to-government transfers. Ironically, it may be the US, which opposed the AIIB’s creation, that is leading the shift.

Capital Markets for Development
Ethiopis Tafara (Project Syndicate) May 22, 2015
Ending extreme poverty and building shared prosperity in the developing world are noble goals; but they are also expensive ones, requiring financing on a scale far greater than what governments in developing countries can provide. But if the proper conditions are created, capital markets will be well positioned to meet those needs.

Service trade and productivity
Masayuki Morikawa (VoxEU) May 22, 2015
World trade in services is increasing rapidly but micro evidence remains scarce. This column employs firm data from Japan to argue that service-exporting firms are more productive than non-exporting firms and goods-exporting firms. Information asymmetry, transportation costs, differences in institutions, cultures, and languages increase the fixed costs of service trade. Therefore, highly productive firms are more likely to self-select into service trade.

India: When Populism Is Not Sustainable
Sanjeev S. Ahluwalia (Globalist) May 23, 2015
Why is Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s popularity plunging?

Bank Bashing, the Modern Nero’s Fiddle Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Holman Jenkins (WSJ) May 24, 2015
Dodd-Frank and a rash of bank prosecutions have done nothing to make banks safer or more productive.

Big Data’s infinite harvest Financial Times Subscription Required
Edward Luce (FT) May 24, 2015
They give us free computing power and we reveal ever more about ourselves.

New Silk Road is a chance not a threat Financial Times Subscription Required
Liu Xiaoming (FT) May 24, 2015
China intends to use its strengths to promote this project.

Will eurozone ever regain its spring? Financial Times Subscription Required
Claire Jones (FT) May 24, 2015
The buzzword is ‘hysteresis’, which implies policy makers have acted too late to make a difference.

Deutsche bucks trend to little advantage Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Ford (FT) May 24, 2015
It remains a full-service European investment bank in an unfriendly climate.

Haiti: Rising from the rubble Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrew Jack and Andres Schipani (FT) May 24, 2015
Much has been rebuilt since the 2010 earthquake, but it is more difficult to ensure the country’s economic future.

The Big Meh New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) May 24, 2015
A growing number of economists, looking at the data on productivity and incomes, are wondering if the technological revolution has been greatly overhyped.

A Bad Case of Piketty Syndrome
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) May 24, 2015
Researchers find that income inequality drags down growth -- but the problem isn't inequality at the top.

Universal basic skills: The primary development goal
Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann (VoxEU) May 24, 2015
Later this year, the UN will set the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals. This column argues that lots targets will make it hard for policymakers to enact real change. Instead, the primary post-2015 goals should focus on young people achieving basic skills. Basic skills, in turn, will help address issues of poverty and limited healthcare as well as help foster the new technologies needed to improve sustainable growth.

Cameron, Europe and the hand of history Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) May 25, 2015
Britain has always tried to be a European and a global power.

India’s shadow banks play crucial role Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) May 25, 2015
Country lacks well-developed credit markets to provide long-term capital.

Investors play a ‘greater fool’ game Financial Times Subscription Required
George Magnus (FT) May 25, 2015
Market anomalies abound as debt levels rise and interest rates stagnate.

Productivity: It’s a drag Financial Times Subscription Required
Sam Fleming and Chris Giles (FT) May 25, 2015
Restoring productivity levels is crucial to boosting living standards and filling tax coffers.

China's Supply-Sider Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ May 25, 2015
Is there a supply-sider inside Chinese Premier Li Keqiang struggling to get out?

China's Pivot to Latin America
Bloomberg View May 25, 2015
Strapped economies should be wary of Chinese overtures.

The Cost of Corruption in Latin America
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) May 25, 2015
Crooked government escalates violence. Citizens are fed up with both.

Greek Band-Aids: Less Effective, Rising Cost
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 25, 2015
Only a comprehensive solution will prevent exit from euro.

Austerity Is the Only Deal-Breaker
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) May 25, 2015
Greece's government is eager to implement an agenda that includes all of the economic reforms that its creditors expect, and is uniquely able to maintain the public’s support for a sound economic program. What it will not do is embrace a cure – deeper austerity – that kills the patient.

Lessons for the AIIB
Samura Kamara (Project Syndicate) May 25, 2015
Discussion about China’s establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has focused on questions about the AIIB’s governance and standards. This risks eclipsing a far more important discussion about the role that multilateral investment institutions play in supporting economic growth in emerging markets.

The Violence of Algorithms Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Taylor Owen (FA) May 25, 2015
Why Big Data is only as smart as those who generate it.

Rethinking macro policy: Ten takeaways
Olivier Blanchard (VoxEU) May 25, 2015
On 15-16 April 2015, the IMF organised the third conference on ‘Rethinking Macro Policy’. In this column, IMF’s Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard presents his personal takeaways from the conference. Though progress in macro policy is undeniable, confusion is unavoidable given the complex issues that remain to be settled.

A parallel currency for Greece: Part I
Biagio Bossone and Marco Cattaneo (VoxEU) May 25, 2015
To prevent it from defaulting on its debt, the Greek government might need to introduce a new domestic currency, in parallel to the euro. This column, the first in a two-part series, compares the current proposals for a parallel currency and discusses how such a policy instrument could promote economic recovery.

Why finance is too much of a good thing Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) May 26, 2015
It is very costly to police markets riddled with conflicts of interest and asymmetric information.

US must bring free trade talks into open Financial Times Subscription Required
Mark Wu (FT) May 26, 2015
The advisory system fuels fears that TPP will benefit corporate interests.

A new global order of cities Financial Times Subscription Required
Ivo Daalder (FT) May 26, 2015
Urban centres shape the world.

Backstop against euro-dollar parity break Financial Times Subscription Required
Jens Nordvig (FT) May 26, 2015
Reserve currency status is euro support while China cannot compete.

Tycoon financing in Asia gathers pace Financial Times Subscription Required
Jennifer Hughes (FT) May 26, 2015
Lucrative and growing business tempts investment banks.

Nigeria: The big oil fix Financial Times Subscription Required
William Wallis (FT) May 26, 2015
Battling chronic corruption, fuel shortages and calls to divest assets, the new president must repair the state-owned oil company.

Talent Loves English New York Times Subscription Required
David Brooks (NYT) May 26, 2015
As the world grows more prosperous, immigration is changing, and our ideas need to change with it.

Don’t Blame Trade for Slow Growth Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
William Galston (WSJ) May 26, 2015
The North American Free Trade Agreement’s track record tells us little about today’s concerns.

Will Greece Follow Ukraine's Gamble?
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) May 26, 2015
After months of patient negotiations with its creditors, the Ukrainian government decided to gamble on May 19—by passing a motion through parliament to impose a moratorium on paying international bondholders. This calculated measure was taken after talks with creditors bogged down earlier in May.

Why Poland Tossed Its President
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) May 26, 2015
Inequality weighs heavily on voters' happiness.

Channeling China’s Animal Spirits
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) May 26, 2015
The real test of China’s administrative reforms is whether they allow – and even facilitate – the effective functioning of market forces. With animal spirits – not the authorities – guiding it, China can build the high-value-added, high-tech economy of the future.

Europe’s Movement Against Moving
Harold James (Project Syndicate) May 26, 2015
The European Union has been a single labor market for nearly 30 years, but it was only after the global financial crisis that migration really took off. The result has been a backlash against it, both in the countries where workers arrive and, as Poland’s recent presidential election showed, in those from which they are leaving.

A Net Assessment of Europe
George Friedman (Stratfor) May 26, 2015
Last week I began this series with a Net Assessment of the World, in which I focused on the growing destabilization of the Eurasian land mass. This week I continue the series, which will ultimately analyze each region in detail, with an analysis of Europe. I start here, rather than in the Middle East, because while the increasing successes of the Islamic State are significant, the region itself is secondary to Europe in the broader perspective. The Middle East matters, but Europe is as economically productive as the United States and, for the past 500 years, has been the force that has reshaped the world. The Middle East matters a great deal; European crises can destabilize the world. What happens between Greece and Germany, for example, can have consequences in multiple directions. Therefore, since we have to start somewhere, let me start with Europe.

The U.S. Shale Boom Takes a Break Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Jim Krane and Mark Agerton (FA) May 26, 2015
Life as the world's swing producer.

A parallel currency for Greece: Part II
Biagio Bossone and Marco Cattaneo (VoxEU) May 26, 2015
Introducing a currency in parallel to the euro could help Greece repay its external debt and resume economic activity. This second column in a two-part series evaluates the different options and their effects on aggregate demand and fiscal sustainability. The authors propose a tax credit certificates programme, which they argue could generate new spending capacity and avoid the adoption of new austerity measures.

A development bank made in China Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) May 27, 2015
It is possible that the AIIB will even exceed the standards of existing development lenders Read more >>

US must bring free trade talks into open Financial Times Subscription Required
Mark Wu (FT) May 27, 2015
The advisory system fuels fears that TPP will benefit corporate interests.

Backstop against euro-dollar parity break Financial Times Subscription Required
Jens Nordvig (FT) May 27, 2015
Reserve currency status is euro support while China cannot compete.

The AIIB and Chinese Strategy
Yuriko Koike (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2015
Next month, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will hold its first general meeting, the aim being to launch operations before the end of the year. Will it turn out to be a bank of China, by China, and for China, or will it pursue a multilateral agenda in the manner of the World Bank and regional development banks?

The Currency Manipulation Charade
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2015
The US Senate narrowly defeated a “currency manipulation” amendment to a bill giving President Barack Obama so-called “fast-track” authority to negotiate the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. But the issue could return as the debate shifts to the House of Representatives.

China’s housing boom
Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong and Li-An Zhou (VoxEU) May 27, 2015
China has experienced a decade-long housing market boom, with the market being compared to the housing bubbles of Japan in the 1980s and the US in the 2000s. This column uses data on mortgage loans in 120 cities to investigate whether the Chinese housing market might trigger a financial crisis. Although price growth rates are comparable to those experienced by Japan prior to its bubble, substantial income growth and high mortgage down payment ratios helped support the steady participation of low-income households. A high expectation of future income growth, however, might have been a key driver of price-to-income ratios, and this may not be sustainable.

Pragmatism, the Greek crisis, and structural reforms
Andreas Müller, Kjetil Storesletten and Fabrizio Zilibotti (VoxEU) May 27, 2015
In the policy circles, there are confronting positions regarding Greece’s assistance programme and the structural reforms it should implement. This column argues that the best response is pragmatism and sequential compromise. Efficiency requires an assistance programme providing the country with debt relief with an intervention of an institution such as the IMF. Thus, misconceived economic principles could bring large welfare losses for Greece and renewed financial instability in the Eurozone.

Finance must call time on foul play Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) May 28, 2015
Money talks — and without tipsters, regulators have little hope of knowing what is going on.

Will share buyback craze spread to Europe? Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) May 28, 2015
It could, but there are reasons why behaviour will be different from US.

Executive pay key to productivity puzzle Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrew Smithers (FT) May 28, 2015
The challenge is to alter incentives from those that damage the economy to those that help it.

Finance Officials Focus on Economic Growth at Group of 7 Meeting New York Times Subscription Required
Jack Ewing (NYT) May 29, 2015
At a closed gathering, there was a consensus that governments should invest more in infrastructure like roads, airports and broadband Internet.

Italy: Back on its feet Financial Times Subscription Required
James Politi (FT) May 28, 2015
Italians may not feel it yet, but the economy is showing signs of life — but more reforms are needed.

IMF Announces Chinese Currency No Longer "Undervalued"
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 19 May 28, 2015
The Chinese Renminbi is "no longer undervalued," officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday, following its latest review of the Asian economic giant.

Post-2015 Development Agenda Talks Consider Follow-up, Review Options
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 19 May 28, 2015
Delegates meeting at UN headquarters last week remained divided on how best to follow-up and review a planned post-2015 development agenda, including a set of sustainable development goals (SDGs).

Stop Calling China a Currency Manipulator
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 28, 2015
The yuan deserves a shot as a reserve currency.

Greece's Cuban Path to a Parallel Currency
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) May 28, 2015
Parallel currencies work best when backed up by coercion.

The Downside of Cleaning Up India
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) May 28, 2015
Efforts to end rent-seeking may be hurting businesses.

China's New Silk Road: Implications for the US
Shuaihua Wallace Cheng (YaleGlobal) May 28, 2015
China’s responds to US pivot to Asia with One Belt, One Road – that could offer opportunity for the US.

Freedom, Global Poverty, and the Failure of Foreign Aid
Andrew Syrios (Mises Daily) May 29, 2015
The standard narrative floating about the mainstream press is that the developing world is held back by a quagmire of free market fundamentalism.

The OECD’s Business and Finance Outlook looks at the Greatest Puzzle of Today
Adrian Blundell-Wignall (OECD Insight) May 29, 2015
The greatest puzzle today is that since the global crisis financial markets see so little risk, with asset prices rising everywhere in response to zero interest rates and quantitative easing, while companies that invest in the real economy appear see so much more risk

Premier Li as Fitzcarraldo: China's Latin Role
Helmut Reisen (Globalist) May 29, 2015
While China's role in Latin America is growing, it is likely to remain limited.

Nigeria Needs a New Start
Bloomberg View May 29, 2015
The new president should focus on fixing its corrupt national oil company.

John Nash's Game Theory and Greece
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 29, 2015
The Nobel laureate's insights don't point to a happy ending.

The Inflation Puzzle
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) May 29, 2015
The low rate of inflation in the US is a puzzle, especially to economists who focus on the relationship between inflation and changes in the monetary base. To solve it requires understanding the change in the role of the reserves that commercial banks hold at the Federal Reserve.

Varoufakis’s Great Game
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) May 29, 2015
Many people in Europe seem to believe that Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, a political neophyte, does not know how to play the cards that his country has been dealt. They should think again – before Greece walks away with the pot.

Evidence of political budget cycles
Alberto Alesina and Matteo Paradisi (VoxEU) May 29, 2015
Most of us intuitively believe that politicians reduce taxes and increase spending in the run up to elections to curry favour with voters. But our logic may well be flawed. This column presents evidence from recent Italian elections suggesting that things aren’t so black and white. Yes, some municipalities set lower tax rates in the run up to elections. But the evidence also suggests that municipalities running deficits will think twice about tax breaks and spending sprees. Politicians in big cities are also more cautious, choosing to focus not on tax but on more pressing local issues.

We Need Actual Free Trade, Not the TPP
Ryan McMaken (Mises Daily) May 30, 2015
Brendan Nyhan at The New York Times seems to be under the impression that the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) has something to do with free trade.

Nigeria: I Have A Dream
Bill Humphrey (Globalist) May 30, 2015
At last there is true hope on the horizon for Africa’s most important country and economy.

Can Nigeria Finally Turn the Corner?
Globalist May 30, 2015
Africa's largest economy ranks among the hardest places to do business.

Europe and Anti-Europe
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) May 30, 2015
The worst-case scenario for the EU’s future looks increasingly likely: “Grexit” (Greece leaving the eurozone), “Brexit” (the UK leaving the EU), and a Spanish election result that resembles Greece’s. In other words, nearly 60 years of European integration could be undone in the next 18 months.

Greece, Argentina, and the Middle-Income Trap
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) May 30, 2015
Aside from an established tradition of bad macroeconomics, what do Greece and Argentina have in common? One answer is that they were the world’s longest-held captives of the so-called middle-income trap – and remain within its reach to this day.

Monetary Policy for the Next Recession
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) May 31, 2015
Independence for central banks only makes sense if they have the tools to do their job.

Renew the Africa Trade Pact
Bloomberg View May 31, 2015
Congress should renew the deal long-term -- and expand it.

The Liquidity Time Bomb
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) May 31, 2015
Advanced countries’ central banks have managed to keep interest rates low, reduce the volatility of bond markets, and lift many asset prices. But a series of recent shocks suggests that macro liquidity has become linked with severe market illiquidity.

The Education Myth
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) May 31, 2015
In an era characterized by political polarization and policy paralysis, one area of agreement is that the key to inclusive economic growth is, as Tony Blair put in his 2001 reelection campaign, “education, education, education.” Unfortunately, the idea that education can be a growth strategy simply does not hold water.

Small Steps to European Growth
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) May 31, 2015
When it comes to pro-growth reform in Europe, there is no magic bullet: There can be no centralization, and coordination always risks becoming murky. But a more decentralized, incentive-based policy regime would be a good start.

Good Trade Intentions Gone Bad
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) May 31, 2015
The US should be having a full and open debate about the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership, because the provisions of the 12-country agreement on trade and investment will have important consequences for Americans and their partners. Unfortunately, the Obama administration has opted for secrecy.

What institutions do Asian countries need to keep growing?
David Dollar (EAF) May 31, 2015
The notion of a ‘middle-income trap’ has entered the lexicon of policymakers in emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere.

A unifying approach to bubble prevention
Dirk Schoenmaker (VoxEU) May 31, 2015
Debt financing amplifies the effects of asset prices fluctuations across the financial system and this can produce bubbles. Regulation therefore increasingly focusses on restricting debt financing. Although there is no silver bullet for making the financial system failure-proof, this column argues that policymakers should adopt an integrated and consistent macroprudential approach across the financial system in order to help prevent businesses moving to less-regulated pastures.

Europe’s problem is Russia, not Putin Financial Times Subscription Required
Thomas Graham (FT) May 31, 2015
Moscow is not a rising revolutionary force but one seeking to restore power.

Why Britain has no chance of EU treaty change Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) May 31, 2015
Germany will boycott meaningful reforms for as long as its economy benefits from the status quo.

The Unrealized Horrors of Population Explosion New York Times Subscription Required
Clyde Haverman (NYT) May 31, 2015
In 1968, a book by a Stanford biologist predicted doom for the planet in coming decades. Whatever became of the population bomb?

That 1914 Feeling New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) May 31, 2015
Despite good intentions on both sides, it is not certain that a deal will be reached between Greece and its creditors.

The Shale Boom Shifts Into Higher Gear
WSJ May 31, 2015
Oil production is becoming a modern manufacturing process, with frackers using the ‘just-in-time’ approach.

What Fifa tells us about global power Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Jun 1, 2015
If the US says there is a serious case to answer, it still carries credibility.

Assets made risky by regulator confidence Financial Times Subscription Required
Avinash Persaud (FT) Jun 1, 2015
The impulse to usher banks on to firm ground is easy to understand.

Obama wins over public with trade push Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Jun 1, 2015
Polls show more Americans than not support US agreements with other countries.

Why optimism on Europe looks justified Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephanie Flanders (FT) Jun 1, 2015
There is less fear of outright deflation than at start of year.

The Meaning of Financial Repression
Mark Thornton (Mises Daily) Jun 1, 2015
We are repeatedly told that the unprecedented monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve and other central banks is necessary to stimulate the economy, create jobs, and generate economic growth. The truth is that this scheme is designed to stealthily steal from the productive classes in order in enrich the unproductive financial class and the counterproductive political classes. It is a con game.

How the Fed and Markets Are Not in Sync on Interest Rates
Angel Ubide (PIIE) Jun 1, 2015
After seven years of zero interest rates, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is preparing markets for rate hikes, likely to start in September. The FOMC has not decided on the precise timing of the first rate hike but has stressed that interest rates will be increased gradually over an extended period so as not to disrupt the recovery.

Can Indonesia’s Joko Widodo Deliver on His Infrastructure Promises?
Georgina Hurst (II) Jun 1, 2015
His pledge to ramp up investment on roads and ports played a key role in President Widodo’s selection; now comes the hard part — building.

Don't Trust Asia's Booming Stock Markets
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 1, 2015
Herd mentality can move in both directions.

Latin America Already Has the Trade Deal It Needs
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Jun 1, 2015
The Green Revolution defused the threat of mass starvation.

Latin America Already Has the Trade Deal It Needs
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Jun 1, 2015
If it weren't neglected, Mercosur could lift the region.

Achtung, Germany Needs Babies
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jun 1, 2015
The economy could sputter if today's workers don't create tomorrow's workers.

The Business Case for Sustainability
Laura Tyson (Project Syndicate) Jun 1, 2015
Investors have long feared that incorporating sustainability into their decisions would mean accepting a lower rate of return. But there is mounting evidence that sustainable investments do as well as – or even outperform – traditional investments.

China’s Jobless Growth Miracle
Keyu Jin (Project Syndicate) Jun 1, 2015
One of the most baffling features of China’s economic rise is that even with double-digit GDP growth, employment grew by a measly 1.8% annually, on average. Households, it seems, have largely missed out on the benefits of rapid development.

Seize the Sustainable Future
Simon Zadek (Project Syndicate) Jun 1, 2015
For the first time in years, a healthy dose of optimism seems to be in order, as the global economy recovers and becomes increasingly green. And yet the risk remains that recent gains will be frittered away if policymakers, business leaders, and investors focus on short-term concerns at the expense of long-term threats.

How default affects political survival in networked democracies
Jeffrey Chwieroth, Cohen R. Simpson and Andrew Walter (VoxEU) Jun 1, 2015
Many fear that a Greek default would lead voters elsewhere in Europe to favour default over austerity. This column argues that it is more likely to have the opposite effect. Network interdependencies among countries affect the domestic politics of default because defaults are both rare and vivid. Foreign default increases the propensity for voters to punish their governments for failing to repay external private creditors.

Macroprudential Policy in a Microprudential World
John C. Williams (FRBSF Econ Letter) Jun 1, 2015
Events of the past decade have refocused attention on the potential contributions of monetary policy and macroprudential approaches to fostering financial stability. However, monetary policy is poorly suited for dealing with financial stability concerns. Instead, given the scarcity of explicit macroprudential tools in the United States, microprudential regulations and supervision are used to achieve macroprudential goals.

Duda's Economic Populism Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Hilary Appel and Mitchell A. Orenstein (FA) Jun 1, 2015
Poland's new president and the future of neoliberalism.

Aiming High
Charles Kenny (F&D) Jun 1, 2015
New development goals could spur progress toward better-quality life around the world.

Straight Talk: Path to Development
Christine Lagarde (F&D) Jun 1, 2015
International partnership, commitment, and flexibility are essential to improve the global condition.

A Chain Unbroken
Marja Ruotanen, Gianluca Esposito, and Petya Nestorova (F&D) Jun 1, 2015
Outlawed almost everywhere, slavery lives on in the dark recesses of the global economy.

Capital Idea
Selim Elekdag and Dirk Muir (F&D) Jun 1, 2015
By increasing spending on infrastructure, Germany will help not only itself, but the entire euro area.

The Rich and the Great Recession
Bas Bakker and Joshua Felman (F&D) Jun 1, 2015
Focusing on middle-class behavior to explain the U.S. boom and bust may be too narrow.

Negative bets on China shares unwise Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Jun 2, 2015
Going short equities means taking on the central bank itself.

Do not shut out vulnerable from banking Financial Times Subscription Required
Mark Carney and Bertrand Badré (FT) Jun 2, 2015
Financial abandonment is not something that can be ignored.

No investor wins if they are all the same Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) Jun 2, 2015
Diversification is essential but herding behaviour means that every asset is linked.

The future belongs to cities of the west Financial Times Subscription Required
Simon Kuper (FT) Jun 2, 2015
These are places where today’s 0.1 per cent, the most mobile class in history, might want to live.

EM most at risk of bond market ‘tantrums’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Gene Frieda (FT) Jun 2, 2015
Any liquidity challenges in a sell-off will appear first in emerging markets.

China After the Bubble
Bloomberg View Jun 2, 2015
Easing its stock market down to more rational levels won't be painless.

Is China Repeating Korea's Mistakes?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 2, 2015
The economy is growing on the back of household debt.

The New Authoritarians
Pankaj Mishra (Bloomberg View) Jun 2, 2015
Rulers like Vladimir Putin persuade the ruled to live in a make-believe world.

Does Greece Have a Diabolical Plan B?
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jun 2, 2015
A German economist says time is on Greece's side.

Getting Inequality Wrong
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jun 2, 2015
Many of us have a skewed picture of income distribution.

How to Default on Sovereign Debt
Odette Lienau (Project Syndicate) Jun 2, 2015
The financial brinkmanship over Greece’s debts has raised the question of whether (or when) the country will default on its sovereign debt. As Greek officials consider their options, they would do well to bear in mind that there are better and worse ways to default.

The G-7’s Sustainability Mission
Caio Koch-Weser (Project Syndicate) Jun 2, 2015
When the G-7's leaders meet next week in Germany, they should use the occasion to take the first steps toward avoiding the most dangerous consequences of global warming. Governments and regulators should adopt several policies that would stimulate private-sector investment in cleaner forms of energy.

China’s Pursuit of a New Economic Order
Zhang Jun (Project Syndicate) Jun 2, 2015
China has faced major challenges in carving out a global role befitting its economic might within the existing system. That is why China's government has lately scaled up its efforts to recast the world order – in particular, the monetary and trading systems – on its own terms.

Accounting for Inertia in Geopolitical Forecasting
Rodger Baker (Stratfor) Jun 2, 2015
Geopolitics, at least in the sense that we practice, is neither deterministic in its approach to understanding nations and their interactions nor simply synonymous with current events or international relations.

Why Greece Will Cave—and How Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
George Tsebelis (FA) Jun 2, 2015
Alexis Tsipras and the debt negotiations.

China’s WTO accession and exports: Impact by firm ownership
Ryuhei Wakasugi (VoxEU) Jun 2, 2015
The Chinese government significantly restructured and modernised its economy to gain WTO accession in December 2001. This column examines how WTO entry affected different types of firms. It finds that both private and State-owned firms became more productive after WTO entry yet these productivity gains did not translate into a higher propensity to export for State-owned enterprises.

Euphoria grips China’s stock market Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Jun 3, 2015
There is a fin de siècle feeling and today’s stresses are the most serious since the end of the 1990s.

In defence of Europe’s long holidays Financial Times Subscription Required
Sarah Gordon (FT) Jun 3, 2015
‘Les grandes vacances’ can have a positive impact on productivity, research suggests.

Investment: Revaluing commodities Financial Times Subscription Required
Gregory Meyer and John Authers (FT) Jun 3, 2015
Two pioneering academics make the case for commodity index investments.

An Open Letter to Republicans on the Ex-Im Bank Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Jeb Jensarling (WSJ) Jun 3, 2015
Where is the justice in risking the taxes of average Americans to fatten the coffers of a moneyed elite?

Improving the world economy’s B-minus grade
OECD Insights Jun 3, 2015
Global growth will gradually strengthen towards its pre-crisis trend rate by late 2016 as activity becomes more evenly shared across the major economies and overall external imbalances are less marked than in the run-up to 2007,

People Are Worried About Bond Market Liquidity
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Jun 3, 2015
As you might have heard.

The Impunity Trap
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Jun 3, 2015
The ability of leaders of powerful organizations to flout the law for personal gain is one of the more glaring manifestations of inequality. FIFA – which reelected its president just days after 14 former and current executives were indicted for corruption and fraud – is merely the most obvious recent example of this.

Europe’s Pointless Deficit Targets?
Benedicta Marzinotto (Project Syndicate) Jun 3, 2015
The fiscal rules of the EU have undergone much-needed improvements in recent years, but much more needs to be done. In addition to suffering from a lack of clarity on key issues, EU fiscal policy remains overly focused on short-term goals, reflected in its needless emphasis on nominal deficit targets within annual budget cycles.

Macroprudential supervision in the Eurozone: Beware of excessive expectations
Niklas Gadatsch, Tobias Körner, Isabel Schnabel and Benjamin Weigert (VoxEU) Jun 3, 2015
There is a broad consensus that financial supervision ought to include a macroprudential perspective that focuses on the stability of the entire financial system. This column presents and critically evaluates the newly-created macroprudential framework in the Eurozone, with a particular focus on Germany. It argues that, while based on the right principles, the EU framework grants supervisors a high degree of discretion that entails the risk of limited commitment and excessive fine-tuning. Further, monetary policy should not ignore financial stability considerations and expect macroprudential policy to do the job alone.

Why investors will make 100-year loans Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Jun 4, 2015
Petrobras century bond makes more sense than first appears.

An offer that Greece should not refuse Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) Jun 4, 2015
It is evident Tsipras cannot deliver. Pain is unavoidable with or without default.

Ready money means merger market problems Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Jun 4, 2015
A dark interpretation of the M&A boom is of a financial system drowning in cash and credit Read more >>

Human error, infallible algorithms Financial Times Subscription Required
David Siegel (FT) Jun 4, 2015
Technology beats people especially when they are sick or tired.

That 1914 Feeling New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jun 4, 2015
Despite good intentions on both sides, it is not certain that a deal will be reached between Greece and its creditors.

The Latest Bond Panic
WSJ Jun 4, 2015
Draghi tells the truth about volatility, and the markets prove his point.

US House of Representatives Gears Up for Trade Skirmish
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 20 Jun 4, 2015
The US House of Representatives resumed session this week, with lawmakers soon expected to take up controversial legislation that would grant President Barack Obama with renewed "fast track" trade powers.

EU Parliament Ctte Approves Draft TTIP Recommendations
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 20 Jun 4, 2015
Members of the European Parliament's international trade committee (INTA) signed off last week on a series of draft recommendations for what it would like to see in a planned trade deal with the US, including a highly-anticipated position on the investment protection component of the talks.

EU, Japan Leaders Pledge to Speed Up Trade Talks
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 20 Jun 4, 2015
Leaders from the EU and Japan agreed last week at a Tokyo summit to speed up the pace of their bilateral trade negotiations, which have been underway since 2013. The push to advance the discussions comes as both trading partners are also working to advance other "mega-regional" trade talks, namely the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

WTO's Azevêdo Warns of Slow Progress in Doha Talks as July Deadline Approaches
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 20 Jun 4, 2015
Talks aimed at crafting a work programme for resolving the outstanding areas of the WTO's Doha Round are still not reaching the "necessary convergence" in order to meet an end-July deadline, Director-General Roberto Azevêdo warned the global trade body's members this week.

Japan's Peter Pan Problem
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 4, 2015
QE won't fly unless the public thinks it will.

The IMF's Unusual Advice to the Fed
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 4, 2015
Call for delay of U.S. hike is a rare shot across the bow.

China Isn't Done Growing Yet
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jun 4, 2015
The slowdown now is a stumble, not a collapse.

A Speech of Hope for Greece
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Jun 4, 2015
When US Secretary of State James F. Byrnes delivered his famous address in Stuttgart in September 1946, he proved that hope could be a force for good in post-war Europe. A similar speech by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, delivered in a Greek city, could go a long way toward initiating positive change in the European Union today.

Magna Carta at 800
Peter Singer (Project Syndicate) Jun 4, 2015
Because Magna Carta attempted to set limits to political power without grounding these limits in the sovereignty of the people, it demonstrated a problem with which philosophers have grappled for even longer than 800 years. From where do the principles that constrain rulers come, if from neither the rulers nor their subjects?

Green Depreciation and European Recovery
Thomas Fricke and Xavier Timbeau (Project Syndicate) Jun 4, 2015
Europe must find a way to cement its economic recovery while intensifying the fight against climate change. An accelerated depreciation scheme for green investment would be a highly efficient way to accomplish both goals.

India – A Silicon Valley for Emerging Markets?
Dinesh C. Sharma (YaleGlobal) Jun 4, 2015
India’s tech firms target consumers in fast-growing emerging markets – and attract acquisition attention, too

Trends and prospects for private-sector deleveraging in advanced economies
Serkan Arslanalp, Reinout De Bock and Matthew Jones (VoxEU) Jun 4, 2015
Major advanced economies have made mixed progress in repairing the private sector’s balance sheets. This column explores private sector deleveraging trends and calls for a set of policies that will return debt to safer levels. Monetary policies should support private sector deleveraging and policymakers should not ignore the positive impact of debt restructuring and write-offs on non-performing loans.

The economic consequences of austerity Recommended!
Amartya Sen (New Statesman) Jun 4, 2015
The judgements of our financial and political leaders are breathtakingly narrow. I consider the alternatives.

Give Obama trade-promotion authority
Condoleezza Rice (WP) Jun 5, 2015
It’s a critical tool in the conduct of U.S. diplomacy.

Brazil's Potential Output: A Case of Cognitive Dissonance?
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Jun 5, 2015
The International Monetary Fund's most recent World Economic Outlook (WEO) report (IMF 2015) confirms many economists' continued low expectations for Brazil's potential output and growth.

China Vs. the West: The Renewables Arms Race
John Mathews (Globalist) Jun 5, 2015
How should the West respond to China becoming a renewables superpower?

Does Outsourcing Explain the Wage Gap?
Peter R. Orszag (Bloomberg View) Jun 5, 2015
Maybe, though corporate performance might be the real reason.

Hong Kong Embraces China's Bubble
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 5, 2015
Doing business with the mainland's restless traders is a bad idea.

Managing the Age of Disruption
Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel (Project Syndicate) Jun 5, 2015
At a time when powerful forces are disrupting the global economy, bold predictions are even more likely than usual to be wrong. Each of four “great disruptions” is transformational on its own, and all are amplifying the effects of the others, producing fundamental and unpredictable changes on a scale the world has never seen.

Europe’s Last Act?
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Jun 5, 2015
Greece has met its creditors’ demands far more than halfway. Yet Germany and Greece’s other creditors continue to demand that the country sign on to a program that has proven to be a failure, and that few economists ever thought could, would, or should be implemented.

Drones for Development
J.M. Ledgard and Scott MacMillan (Project Syndicate) Jun 5, 2015
Unmanned aerial vehicles have populated the nightmares of people around the world in recent years, largely owing to their military and potentially malign applications. But cargo drones embody what the World Bank’s Jim Yong Kim calls the “science of delivery,” promising to get essential goods and services to the neediest people.

Rethinking informality
Ravi Kanbur and Michael Keen (VoxEU) Jun 5, 2015
The ‘informal’ economy presents a key challenge for developing-nation policymakers due to its labour-market and tax-revenue implications. Informality is usually defined as the complement to formality, i.e. any activity that isn’t covered by a clear set of laws. This column argues that such a definition risks obscuring more than it reveals, by failing to understand and address the varieties of informality that exist. Sensible policy should focus on tailored interventions across different categories of taxpayer, not on reducing aggregate informality.

Secular stagnation: The time for one-armed policy is over
Willem Buiter, Ebrahim Rahbari and Joe Seydl (VoxEU) Jun 5, 2015
Stagnation is gripping several of the world’s largest economies and many view this as secular, not transient. This column argues that many economies need both demand-side stimulus and supply-side reform to close the output gap and restore potential-output growth. A combined monetary-fiscal stimulus – i.e. helicopter money – is needed to close the output gap, and this should be accompanied with extensive debt restructuring, policies to halt rising inequality, and additional public infrastructure investment.

Deutsche, stuck in middle of global finance Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gapper (FT) Jun 7, 2015
Jain and Fitschen personified the muddled sense of identity at the heart of the company.

Two dismal economic plans for Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Jun 7, 2015
Without reform the country cannot coexist with northern Europe in a monetary union.

Shunning Beijing’s AIIB was a mistake Financial Times Subscription Required
Robert Zoellick (FT) Jun 7, 2015
Washington needs to learn from this embarrassing experience.

Tug of war as central banks seek control Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Jun 7, 2015
Starting point of ridiculously low yields was vulnerable to upset.

China migration: Toil and trouble Financial Times Subscription Required
Tom Mitchell (FT) Jun 7, 2015
Labour shortages give workers a stronger hand but scepticism about the justice system is widespread.

Trade and Trouble Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Salvatore Babones (FA) Jun 7, 2015
What China can learn from the 1640 economic bust.

The gravity of high-skilled migration policies
Mathias Czaika and Christopher Parsons (VoxEU) Jun 7, 2015
Immigration policies can potentially attract and select high-skilled workers. This column provides a new assessment of the effectiveness of migration policies. Points-based (or supply-based) systems increase both the absolute numbers of high-skill migrants and the skill composition of international labour flows. Conversely, demand-driven systems – usually based on the principle of job contingency – are shown to have a rather small, even negative effect.

Chinese deals hint at European ambitions Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Jun 8, 2015
Next destination for acquisitive groups may be Germany.

Tug-of-war as central banks seek control Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Jun 8, 2015
Starting point of ridiculously low yields has fuelled volatility.

Trade Deficit Myths Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Jun 8, 2015
A case study in protectionist misinformation.

Living on less than two dollars a day: OECD Forum Discovery Lab
Xavier Godinot and René Locqueneux (OECD Insight) Jun 8, 2015
A debate with over 50 Forum participants on living on less than two dollars a day.

Technology Needs Capital To Produce Economic Growth
Frank Shostak (Mises Daily) Jun 8, 2015
Technology, while important, must always work through the investment of capital in order to generate economic growth.

Why the West should welcome Chinese yuan's inclusion into the SDR
Li-Gang Liu (SCMP/PIIE) Jun 8, 2015
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is now conducting a review to consider including the renminbi (RMB) in the basket of special drawing right (SDR) currencies and will make a final decision at the end of the year. At issue for the review is whether the RMB is a 'freely or widely used currency' in trade and financial transactions.

Anti-Militarism: A Source of Modern German Confidence
Michael Vlahos (Globalist) Jun 8, 2015
With nothing left to prove on battlefields, Germany can pursue other tasks and strategies.

China's Boom in Old-Fashioned Business
Adam Minter (Bloomberg View) Jun 8, 2015
Direct sales are soaring, because trust is prized in a chaotic economy.

BRICs Hit a Wall
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 8, 2015
Emerging markets are dragging down the global economy.

Subplots Cloud Greek Drama
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 8, 2015
Acrimony distracts from the country's quest to stay in the euro zone.

U.S. Can't Import the Scandinavian Model
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Jun 8, 2015
The enviable growth there is driven by the American economy.

How Warren Would Expand Trade With Asia
Peter R. Orszag (Bloomberg View) Jun 8, 2015
Dredging Boston Harbor would have at least as big an effect as the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The Quiet Financial Revolution Begins
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Jun 8, 2015
Steadily and indisputably, the financial services industry – with which we all interact, whether as borrowers, savers, investors, or regulators – has embarked on a multiyear transformation. This process, slow at first, has been driven by the combined impact of two sets of factors.

Rethinking Inflation Targeting
Axel Weber (Project Syndicate) Jun 8, 2015
Over the last two decades, inflation targeting has become the predominant monetary-policy framework. But, as we have seen in the period since the 2008 financial crisis, this approach cannot support long-term monetary stability in a complex and constantly evolving economy.

Carry along trade: Evidence from Italy
Virginia Di Nino (VoxEU) Jun 8, 2015
The high-flying productivity of exporting firms is one of the reasons governments promote exporting. This column presents new evidence on ‘carry along trade’, i.e. exports by firms who did not produce the final good. In Italy, about a quarter of manufacturing exports involve goods sold by a manufacturer which is not the actual producer. These firms hold a sizeable productivity premium and many superstar firms are not super-producers.

Borders globalisation cannot erase Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) Jun 9, 2015
In an interconnected world, it remains hard to remove barriers.

Corporate China goes on a borrowing binge Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Jun 9, 2015
Despite some alarming numbers, fears of a debt crisis have diminished.

Why China is blowing an equity bubble Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Jun 9, 2015
High valuations will make it easier and cheaper to recapitalise state-owned firms.

Greeks chose poverty, let them have it Financial Times Subscription Required
Francesco Giavazzi (FT) Jun 9, 2015
It is clear that citizens have no appetite for modernising society.

How the Next Financial Crisis Will Happen Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Stephen A. Schwarzman (WSJ) Jun 9, 2015
A liquidity drought can exacerbate, or even trigger, the next financial crisis.

Stock Boom Chokes China's Reform Plan
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 9, 2015
Who wants to buy all-important bonds when equities are this hot?

The QE Placebo
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Jun 9, 2015
It has now been nearly half a year since the European Central Bank declared its intention to buy some €1.1 trillion worth of eurozone government bonds. Contrary to the claims of the policy’s supporters, there is little evidence so far that the policy is working.

A New Birth for Social Democracy
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Jun 9, 2015
Nowadays, with the global economy undergoing fundamental transformation, workers worldwide are coming under significant pressure. Particularly in developed economies, social policies must adjust to provide the support that vulnerable populations need.

China’s Global Governance Challenge
Stephen S. Roach (YaleGlobal) Jun 9, 2015
AIIB’s founding members, led by China, could develop new standards for global governance.

Inflation expectations spur consumption
Francesco D'Acunto, Daniel Hoang and Michael Weber (VoxEU) Jun 9, 2015
Theory suggests that higher inflation expectations increase the likelihood that people will buy durable goods. This column presents evidence showing that this works for more educated, working-age, high-income, and urban households. A natural experiment from Germany shows us that the effect of inflation expectations on readiness to spend is causal and that monetary and fiscal policies that increase inflation expectations can therefore successfully spur aggregate consumption in the short run.

Luxury goods face a global reckoning Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gapper (FT) Jun 10, 2015
The China crackdown shows what can occur suddenly to conspicuous consumption.

Reasons to fear a ‘triple taper tantrum’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Manoj Pradhan (FT) Jun 10, 2015
Central banks have no contingency plan for a revival of growth.

Fed risks inflating next housing bubble Financial Times Subscription Required
Jason Cummins (FT) Jun 10, 2015
Near zero rates stimulate demand and could push prices higher than last time.

Emerging markets: Trading blow Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Wheatley and James Kynge (FT) Jun 10, 2015
After years of boosting global growth, developing economies now a major drag on world economy.

China’s Troubling Robot Revolution New York Times Subscription Required
Martin Ford (NYT) Jun 10, 2015
Will automation gut the country’s labor force, just as it needs consumer spending to bolster economic growth? Wall Street Journal Subscription Required

Last Protectionist Gasp Financial Times Subscription Required
WSJ Jun 10, 2015
Free trade opponents invent an immigration plank that doesn’t exist.

Ignore Obama and vote for trade-promotion authority
George F. Will (WP) Jun 10, 2015
The president will be gone in 19 months, but the U.S. economy will continue to benefit from free trade.

Shrinking China: A Demographic Crisis
Gordon G. Chang (WA) Jun 10, 2015
The question of who will rule Asia in the 21st century, China or India, might already be decided: China’s population may peak by the end of the decade, with economic decline almost sure to follow.

Trade: The experts go to war
Simon Johnson (PIIE/Politico) Jun 10, 2015
In an interview with Politico this week, Ambassador Michael Froman stressed high import tariffs on American goods imposed by the 11 countries with which he is negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). His implication is that the TPP will dramatically lower such tariffs, boosting US exports, significantly increasing the size of our economy, and helping most Americans.

Janet Yellen Gives Asia the Jitters
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 10, 2015
Emerging markets nervously eye Washington's interest rates.

Bank of Japan Hands Off to Abe
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 10, 2015
Kuroda hints that he will push no more stimulus.

What Game Is Greece Playing?
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Jun 10, 2015
Is it chicken, a prisoner's dilemma or ultimatum?

The G-7 Embraces Decarbonization
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Jun 10, 2015
This week’s G-7 meeting at Schloss Elmau in the Bavarian Alps marked a major breakthrough in climate-change policy. The seven largest high-income economies made the revolutionary decision to end their economies' dependence on fossil fuels during this century.

China the Responsible Stakeholder
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Jun 10, 2015
Rather than recoiling in fear, the international community should encourage China’s constructive engagement in governing the global economy. The first step toward that goal should be to take a more nuanced view of China’s recent policy initiatives.

The Chimera of Currency Manipulation
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Jun 10, 2015
If the US were to insist that “strong and enforceable currency disciplines” be part of trade agreements, as some in Congress are demanding for the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the EU, no deals would be concluded. Other countries would refuse – and they would be right.

The Long-Term Investment Challenge
Angel Gurría (Project Syndicate) Jun 10, 2015
An extended global economic slump may be inevitable, but it can be mitigated. Adopting policies to facilitate and reward long-term investments will be key to exiting the current crisis and boosting the world’s potential for growth in the future.

Why sovereigns repay debts to external creditors and why it matters
The conventional wisdom in Greece is that the nation has suffered years of excessive, Troika-imposed austerity in a short-sighted effort to extract maximum repayment. This column argues that, in fact, Greece was a net receiver of Troika funds from 2010 to mid-2014, with a modest reverse flow since Greece stalled on its reforms. Both sides have negotiated in their self interest – influenced by bargaining threat points that have had everything to do with the direct costs of default and little to do with Greece’s concern about its reputation for making repayments.
With Greece on the edge and Argentina confronting adverse legal decisions, thinking about sovereign default is a front-burner issue. This column discusses how recent experience casts light on relative merits of the two main conceptual approaches to modelling sovereign lending and default – the reputation approach and the punishment approach.

The modern Greek tragedy
Jeremy Bulow and Kenneth Rogoff (VoxEU) Jun 10, 2015
The conventional wisdom in Greece is that the nation has suffered years of excessive, Troika-imposed austerity in a short-sighted effort to extract maximum repayment. This column argues that, in fact, Greece was a net receiver of Troika funds from 2010 to mid-2014, with a modest reverse flow since Greece stalled on its reforms. Both sides have negotiated in their self interest – influenced by bargaining threat points that have had everything to do with the direct costs of default and little to do with Greece’s concern about its reputation for making repayments.

Inequality of opportunity as a policy construct
Ravi Kanbur and Adam Wagstaff (VoxEU) Jun 10, 2015
Reducing inequality of opportunity, rather than inequality of outcome, is often heralded as an appropriate target for policy. This column explores the challenges of identifying inequality of opportunity. Disentangling how effort and circumstance contribute to outcomes is difficult, and this leads to a tendency to underestimate inequality of opportunity. This lends support for generalised social protection measures in dimensions such as income, health and education, irrespective of whether the outcomes can be specifically attributed to circumstance or to effort.

QE's impact on long-term yields: New thinking
Jens Christensen and Signe Krogstrup (VoxEU) Jun 10, 2015
Quantitative easing (QE) is thought to work by reducing expected future short-term policy rates and the supply of long-term bonds. This column argues that a third channel may be at work, namely a reserve-induced portfolio balance channel. It operates through the increase in central bank reserves on commercial banks’ balance sheets and is independent of which assets the central bank purchases. Central banks can implement QE programmes through purchases of other assets than long-term bonds and still reduce long-term yields.

What bond turbulence says about inflation Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Jun 11, 2015
Too early to say markets signal decisive move away from deflation.

Chinese optimism woos a tough US crowd Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Jun 11, 2015
Alibaba’s founder believes that global trade could create a shining future.

Split verdict on the bullying over Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Aristides Hatzis (FT) Jun 11, 2015
Conflicting narratives of debt crisis are schematic but contain elements of truth.

What bond turbulence says about inflation Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Jun 11, 2015
Too early to say markets signal decisive move away from deflation.

Seriously Bad Ideas New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jun 11, 2015
The financial crisis has given remarkable staying power to false explanations of big events. And they continue to warp policy.

Greece, a Financial Zombie State New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Jun 11, 2015
European officials need to produce a realistic plan to revive the country’s devastated economy.

The Return of Growth Economics Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Jun 11, 2015
Passing a trade bill would mark the start of a new policy direction.

Prepare for serious turbulence in Russia
Sergei Guriev (WP) Jun 11, 2015
The West should think about how to ease the transition of power, should the current regime collapse.

G-7 Leaders Aim for TTIP Outline By Year's End, Make Global Climate Push
Bridges, Volume 19. Number 21 Jun 11, 2015
Leaders from the G-7 countries agreed on Monday to aim for an immediate acceleration of negotiations for a bilateral trade and investment deal between the US and EU, including an outline of such an agreement "as soon as possible, preferably by the end of the year."

African Leaders Launch Tripartite Free Trade Area
Bridges, Volume 19. Number 21 Jun 11, 2015
African heads of state have launched the largest free trade area across Africa, the Tripartite FTA (TFTA), during the Third Tripartite Summit held in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt that ended Wednesday

Let’s Hope Machines Take Our Jobs: We Want Wealth, Not Jobs
Peter St. Onge (Mises Daily) Jun 11, 2015
The job-threatening rise of the machines is an economically illiterate meme that refuses to die.

China's Answer to Europe's Needs
Adam Minter (Bloomberg View) Jun 11, 2015
Will trade run one way along the New Silk Road?

Pimco Sold Itself Some Bonds
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Jun 11, 2015
Possibly because it was worried about bond market liquidity.

France's Thwarted Economic Glory
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Jun 11, 2015
It might top Germany, but not with policies like these.

Finance Stumps World's Best Minds
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jun 11, 2015
The old ideas unraveled in the financial crisis.

European banks: Healing continues
Jan Schildbach (DB Research) Jun 11, 2015
European banks had a successful start into 2015. Business activity improved, asset quality did so as well and profitability rose again, as the rebalancing of the industry made further progress. The ECB’s new large-scale market interventions helped strengthen sentiment in financial markets, and contributed to the continuing decline in the euro exchange rate – which on balance may have been beneficial for banks.

Should Washington Fear the AIIB? Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Foreign Affairs Jun 11, 2015
The AIIB represents the start of a fundamental challenge to the current global multilateral order. True or false?

Desperate Millions Flee Poverty, Persecution and Inequality
Joergen Oerstroem Moeller (YaleGlobal) Jun 11, 2015
Nations must tackle root causes of disorderly migration – or expect more economic crises and armed conflict.

The Muddled Case for Trade Agreements
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Jun 11, 2015
With global trade negotiations deadlocked for years, regional agreements – long a dormant route to trade liberalization – are back with a vengeance. But the two biggest, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, seem to be about corporate capture, not liberalism.

A Greek Suicide?
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Jun 11, 2015
The good news is that a Greek default, which has become more likely after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ provocative rejection of what he described as the “absurd” bailout offer by Greece’s creditors, no longer poses a serious threat to the rest of Europe. The bad news is that Tsipras does not seem to understand this.

Why Iceland can now remove capital controls
Jon Danielsson and Ásdís Kristjánsdóttir (VoxEU) Jun 11, 2015
Iceland has just announced it is getting rid of its capital controls. This column argues that the government’s plan is a credible, efficient and fair plan to lift the costly and misguided controls.

WTO success: No trade agreement but no trade war
Ralph Ossa (VoxEU) Jun 11, 2015
The WTO has so far failed to deliver any significant multilateral trade liberalisation. However, this column argues that concluding from this that the WTO is a failure would clearly be premature. Its punchline is that the WTO’s success at preventing trade wars far outweighs its failure to promote trade talks. Overall, the WTO is therefore much more successful than the ailing Doha Round suggests.

Disaster risk and asset pricing
Jerry Tsai and Jessica Wachter (VoxEU) Jun 11, 2015
The high equity premium and high volatility in equity markets have long been a puzzle. This column discusses how rare, economy-wide disasters can account for this conundrum, as well as for patterns in prices, consumption, and interest rates during the Great Recession.

Trade Deal's Setback Left Wall Street Unmoved. Why? New York Times Subscription Required
Justin Wolfers (NYT) Jun 12, 2015
The market's indifference to Friday's surprising development suggests the stakes are lower than they appear for the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Greece: The Confrontational End-Game Is Here
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Jun 12, 2015
Now that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has alienated the European Commission, which is his government’s only potential ally in the creditor group known as the Troika—European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB), and International Monetary Fund (IMF)—no credible bridge-builders are left to save Athens from itself. Further confrontation and escalation seem most likely (60 percent).

Canada, Tomorrow's Superpower
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jun 12, 2015
It just needs more people.

Greece: The Implacable Meets the Incorrigible
Bloomberg View Jun 12, 2015
It's hard to imagine things could get worse between Greece and its creditors, but they just did and the possibility of default is closer. The Greeks have been exasperating, but the IMF and the EU are as much to blame. The solution remains available and clear: reform for debt relief.

Tsipras's Gambit Won't End Greece's Crisis
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 12, 2015
IMF and ECB must sign off on any deal.

The Right Food Fight
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Jun 12, 2015
The question of the extent to which governments should regulate or tax addictive behavior has long framed public debate about alcohol, tobacco, gambling, and other goods and services. And now, in the US – the mother of global consumer culture – the debate has turned to the fight against the epidemic of childhood obesity.

China’s Real Reform Challenge
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Jun 12, 2015
Whereas Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan depended on export-led growth to catch up with the developed economies, China is simply too large to be able to continue to depend on external markets. To reach the next stage of development, it will need to forge its own growth path, which will require taking on powerful vested interests.

Why America Should Join the AIIB
Paolo Mauro (Project Syndicate) Jun 12, 2015
The US should get off the sidelines and use its influence to help shape the design of China's new investment bank. In exchange for participating, the Obama administration should insist that the focus be on financing infrastructure projects that reduce carbon-dioxide emissions and meet the highest environmental standards.

Zimbabwe's Play Money Finally Gets the Axe
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jun 12, 2015
A tale of monetary mismanagement and billion-dollar bills.

The world economy: Watch out Economist Subscription Required
Economist Jun 13, 2015
It is only a matter of time before the next recession strikes. The rich world is not ready.

The War of Ideas: Does it Exist? Can it be Won?
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Jun 13, 2015
What is the big idea (or set of ideas) the West is battling about?

Migration Realism
Kofi A. Annan (Project Syndicate) Jun 13, 2015
It is time to accept the reality that human migration cannot be stopped. Action is needed on four fronts to manage the flows of people in ways that benefit migrants’ countries of origin, transit, and destination.

The Futility of Our Global Monetary Experiment
David Stockman (Mises Daily) Jun 13, 2015
We’re in an experiment of monumental proportions.

Global trade agreements have a new role Financial Times Subscription Required
Lawrence Summers (FT) Jun 14, 2015
There must be clear signs that international economic diplomacy will turn to broader concerns.

Greece has nothing to lose by saying no to creditors Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Jun 14, 2015
If it were to default on its official-sector debt, France and Germany stand to forfeit €160bn.

Mexico: Clearing out Financial Times Subscription Required
Jude Webber and Gina Chon (FT) Jun 14, 2015
Mexican banks say US regulatory clampdown has damaged legitimate activity

China's Unsettling Stock Market Boom New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Jun 14, 2015
The sharp increase in stock prices could put the financial system at risk of big losses.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership and a President’s Legacy
Peter Baker (NYT) Jun 14, 2015
The 12-nation deal President Obama has been negotiating in Asia could be imperiled, not by uncertainty abroad, but by challenges at home trying to convince Democrats of the deal’s importance.

The Mythical Link Between Income Inequality and Slow Growth Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Matthew Schoenfeld (WSJ) Jun 14, 2015
From 2011-13, the five most ‘unequal’ countries in the OECD grew nearly five times faster than the others.

The retreat of ‘peak oil’
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Jun 14, 2015
Oil is not inexorably fading from the world stage.

Stand Back: China's Bubble Will Burst
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Jun 14, 2015
Beijing may come to regret talking up equity ownership.

India Chooses IPhones Over Asset Bubbles
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 14, 2015
A rare central bank that won't enable government complacency.

Winners and losers from share buybacks Financial Times Subscription Required
Rick Rieder (FT) Jun 15, 2015
Global economy is witnessing a redistribution of wealth and income.

Four games the Greeks may be playing Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Jun 15, 2015
Negotiations look increasingly like a deadly scene in ‘Rebel Without A Cause’.

Renminbi is ready for the global stage Financial Times Subscription Required
Eswar Prasad (FT) Jun 15, 2015
The currency’s rise could be a force for change.

The tricky business of rebranding banks Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Jun 15, 2015
When it comes to names, globalisation is going into reverse.

How Best to Manage a Housing Boom
IMF Survey Jun 15, 2015
Housing booms are best managed by policies other than monetary policy, and then only if a boom is judged to be a problem.

U.S. Is Land of the Full-Time Job
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Jun 15, 2015
The rest of developed world has switched to part-time, temp work.

Why Russia Still Attracts Immigrants
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jun 15, 2015
Abundant menial jobs and cheap money transfer networks are a draw.

The Fed Won't Ruin Bond Markets
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jun 15, 2015
History shows that rate hikes rarely trigger panic.

Congress Undermines U.S.'s Global Standing
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 15, 2015
Failure of trade vote is latest destructive bit of theater.

End “Extend and Pretend” With Greece
Lucrezia Reichlin, Elias Papaioannou, an Richard Portes (Project Syndicate) Jun 15, 2015
The current talks between Greece and its creditors show little will on either side to overcome the failures of the past five years: the "troika" maintains its myopic focus on fiscal austerity; Greece remains reluctant to reform. With the economy in free fall, both sides need to accept that “extend-and-pretend” is no solution at all.

A Rule of Law for Sovereign Debt
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Martin Guzman (Project Syndicate) Jun 15, 2015
To avoid economic and political instability, governments sometimes need to restructure their debts. But, in the absence of an international rule of law for doing so, the world pays a higher price than it should: a poorly functioning debt market, marked by unnecessary strife and costly delays in addressing problems when they arise.

Quantitative easing: Who’s backing currency?
Pierpaolo Benigno and Salvatore Nisticò (VoxEU) Jun 15, 2015
In the aftermath of the Global Crisis, many central banks have engaged in unconventional purchases of risky securities. Such operations can entail possible losses on their balance sheets. This column argues that neutrality of open-market operations holds only in specific policy regimes, such as when central banks’ losses are covered by taxes levied on the public sector. In absence of such support, losses should be resolved through a prolonged increase in inflation.

The currency union effect on trade: Redux
Reuven Glick and Andrew K Rose (VoxEU) Jun 15, 2015
The Economic and Monetary Union in Europe has recently been the source of a lot of pain. Its economic benefits often seem a lot harder to measure. This column reconsiders earlier opinions on the trade effects of currency unions using the latest data and methodologies. It suggests the euro has at least a mildly stimulating effect on exports. However, the switches and reversals across methodologies do not make allowances for any bold statements.

Is TPP in peril?
Gary Clyde Hufbauer (VoxEU) Jun 15, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership – a trade deal involving the US and 11 partners – has been imperilled by parliamentarian manoeuvres in the US Congress. This column explains the complex links between the trade deal and the Congressional vote and discusses the next steps.

Central banks stash cash for unwind shock Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Jun 16, 2015
BoJ has allocated 25% of its QE profits to higher reserves.

Divorce Greece in haste, repent at leisure Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Jun 16, 2015
Neither Greeks nor their partners should imagine a clean break if they leave the euro.

Boring banking makes a comeback Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) Jun 16, 2015
The dealmakers may have had their time as the balance of power tips back to traditional ways.

Investors board Chinese train maker Financial Times Subscription Required
Tom Mitchell (FT) Jun 16, 2015
Combined railway entity takes fast track to export market but slow line to reform.

Oil: Leaner times for ‘Fort McMoney’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Gregory Meyer (FT) Jun 16, 2015
Canada’s oil sands industry is choked of investment after price collapses.

Trade and the Presidency Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Jun 16, 2015
Candidates who oppose free trade don’t belong in the Oval Office.

Mischaracterizing and Exaggerating Fossil Fuel Subsidies
Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) Jun 16, 2015
Subsidies are rampant in today's world economy, and they generally do more harm than good. Governments usually fail when they try to pick industrial winners, while subsidies to support industrial losers are hard to phase out. International disciplines contained in the World Trade Organization are weak and seldom enforced.

R.I.P., Free-Trade Treaties?
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Jun 16, 2015
Free trade and globalization have failed to deliver the promised benefits to ordinary Americans.

Greater Asia: A China-Russia Entente?
Dmitri Trenin (Globalist) Jun 16, 2015
Russia is rapidly aligning itself with new allies in the East, hoping to gain dominance in Eurasia.

Europe Asks the Impossible of Greece
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Jun 16, 2015
No government can credibly commit to doing the politically impossible.

China Breaks Out of Asia's Orbit
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 16, 2015
Improved financial clout may prove a mixed blessing.

Greece's Tremors Felt in Italy and Spain
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jun 16, 2015
Euro zone risks existential crisis amid contagion.

Falling Inequality Defies Piketty's Dark Vision
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jun 16, 2015
An old idea suggests that worldwide wealth differences will keep falling.

How to Defend a Post-Greece Euro
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jun 16, 2015
Dusting off the plan for euro bonds.

Expect the Fed to Favor a September Rate Hike
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 16, 2015
Signaling a slow and shallow cycle of increases.

The IMF’s “Tough Choices” on Greece
James K. Galbraith (Project Syndicate) Jun 16, 2015
The International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, recently asked a simple question: “How much of an adjustment has to be made by Greece, how much has to be made by its official creditors?” Unfortunately, his answer betrays a stunning failure to come to terms with the evidence of the last five years.

Totalitarianism 2.0
Andrei Kolesnikov (Project Syndicate) Jun 16, 2015
The political theorist Hannah Arendt once wrote that, under totalitarian regimes, the state is the only force that shapes the condition of society. Russia under President Vladimir Putin may not be there yet, but it certainly is moving in that direction.


Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Jun 16, 2015
Despite slowing economic growth, China, together with Hong Kong, has recorded $29 billion in initial public offerings so far this year – almost twice the funds raised in US markets. Why has the pace and scope of innovation in China begun to increase, and why now?

The Endgame in Greece
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Jun 16, 2015
After months of wrangling, the showdown between Greece and its European creditors has come down to a standoff over pensions and taxes. The Greek government is right to have drawn the line, while the EU could pay dearly for its petulance.

Make Way for the RMB Foreign Policy Subscription Required
Paola Subacchi (FP) Jun 16, 2015
If the IMF wants to keep Beijing in the tent, it's time to reward China's progress on making its currency more free market-friendly.

Confucius will not purge graft from China Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Schuman (FT) Jun 17, 2015
It is wishful thinking to suppose proverbs can substitute reform.

Lenders of the revolution look familiar Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gapper (FT) Jun 17, 2015
Goldman Sachs, hedge funds and investment trusts muscle into online consumer lending.

ECB must resist call to smooth bond moves Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Heise (FT) Jun 17, 2015
A QE buying spree might push up inflation expectations further.

All Will Benefit from Steps to Cut Excessive Inequality—Lagarde
IMF Survey Jun 17, 2015
Lifting the “small boats” of the poor and middle class can build both a fairer society and a stronger economy, IMF head Christine Lagarde says, telling a Brussels conference that growing and excessive inequality has become a problem for economic growth and development.

China's the Reason U.S. Needs Trade Pact
Noah Feldman (Bloomberg View) Jun 17, 2015
TPP is a valuable and necessary tool in the cool war.

What If Greece Just Disappeared?
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jun 17, 2015
If Greece defaulted and dropped out of the European Union, it wouldn't be the end of the world.

Principles and Politics Align Against Trade
Jonathan Bernstein (Bloomberg View) Jun 17, 2015
Democrats and Republicans have different motivations for opposing Obama's agenda.

The Tragedy of the Climate Commons
Petros Sekeris (Project Syndicate) Jun 17, 2015
By now, the danger from climate change and other forms of environmental degradation is so evident that it seems crazy to ignore it. But our collective failure to take effective action in the face of such threats is not the result of having leaders who are insane or irrational.

The Bloom Is off the BRICS
Michael J. Boskin (Project Syndicate) Jun 17, 2015
A few years ago, pundits and policymakers were predicting that the BRICS countries would be the new engines of the global economy. But now, with all five countries facing serious challenges to growth, they will have to double down on pro-market reform if they are to avoid the dreaded middle-income trap.

China’s International Growth Agenda
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Jun 17, 2015
For most of the past 35 years, China’s policymakers had no strategy to ensure that others – especially the neighbors – gained from the country’s economic transformation. But now China does have such a strategy, or at least is rapidly developing one, and it extends well beyond Asia, to Eastern Europe and the east coast of Africa.

While America Dithered Adobe Acrobat Required
Barry D. Wood (TIE) Jun 17, 2015
The G-20 prospered.

QE and Oil Prices Adobe Acrobat Required
Philip K. Verleger, Jr. (TIE) Jun 17, 2015
Why the United States will be the new arbiter of oil inventories.

The Inflation Debate Adobe Acrobat Required
John M. Berry (TIE) Jun 17, 2015
Why Team Yellen will move cautiously.

Could America Soon Have an Inflation Problem? Adobe Acrobat Required
Various (TIE) Jun 17, 2015
Is the United States flirting with an inflation problem? Moreover, what are the risks of policy error on the inflation issue? Are Fed policymakers today behind the curve on the inflation front? Or is talk of monetary tightening playing with fire?

The History of Debt Relief Adobe Acrobat Required
Klaus C. Engelen (TIE) Jun 17, 2015
From de Larosière to Rhodes, Mulford to Ortiz, and Herrhausen to Gurría, the struggle for debt solutions goes on.

Merkel’s big reason to hold on to Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT0 Jun 18, 2015
People close to the chancellor say she is prepared to see Athens tumble out of the euro.

A bloated Fed prepares to shape up Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) Jun 18, 2015
The balance sheet should shrink to a more normal size after seven or eight years.

How bitcoin could rock the back office Financial Times Subscription Required
Daniel Davies (FT) Jun 18, 2015
Electronic currency can help standardise securities settlements.

Can ECB halt damaging effects of Grexit? Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Jun 18, 2015
Market expectations of central bank capability may be too high.

WTO Members Debate Lighter Agricultural Tariff Cuts
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 22 Jun 18, 2015
WTO members are debating whether to explore lesser agricultural tariff cuts as part of a push to finalise the long-running Doha Round of trade talks, sources have said.

EU, Mexico Set Sights on 2015 Launch of Trade Talks
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 22 Jun 18, 2015
Leaders from the EU and Mexico confirmed last Friday that they would be launching negotiations to update their "Global Agreement," aiming to start the talks for revamping the economic, political, and cooperation pact by year's end.

Rise of the Chest-Thumpers
Pankaj Mishra (Bloomberg View) Jun 18, 2015
Leaders in all three nations are using nationalism to revive the authority of the state.

Industry 4.0: China seizes an outstanding opportunity in the “Year of Innovation”
Stefan Heng (DB Research) Jun 18, 2015
Industry 4.0 (also known as integrated industry, industrial internet) is currently the subject of intense debate. This megatrend sets out to change the way goods and services are created and distributed, reshaping the industrial landscape on a national and global scale. China intends to play a leading role in this digital evolution. A wide range of policies have been initiated and sizeable progress in various areas has been made. The country is determined to seize the outstanding opportunity at hand, as the recently unveiled “Made in China 2025” plan underlines. China still has a long road ahead. However, with its new plan it combines a long-term vision with concrete actions in the proclaimed “Year of Innovation”.

Wasting Food in a Hungry World
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Jun 18, 2015
Hunger is a complex problem, exacerbated by financial pressure, volatile commodity prices, natural disasters, and civil wars. Simple policies like investing in improved infrastructure and agricultural research in developing countries – not anti-wastage campaigns in rich countries – are the most efficient ways to fight malnutrition.

Part I: Another Type of European Democracy: The Emergence of Modern Greece
Heinz Richter (Globalist) Jun 18, 2015
Clientelism in Greece became a means of coercion to integrate the individual into society.

Part II: British Greece: The Political Culture of a Protectorate
Heinz Richter (Globalist) Jun 19, 2015
How British and American influence shaped modern Greek politics.

The anachronistic trade agreement
Harold Meyerson (WP) Jun 19, 2015
To protect U.S. workers, the Trans-Pacific Partnership would have to be shored up significantly.

Brazil's All Business With Its Bad Neighbors
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Jun 19, 2015
Venezuela's infrastructure projects matter more to Brazil than its political prisoners.

Ignorance Fuels Europe's Anti-Immigration Victories
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jun 19, 2015
Countries with strong anti-immigrant parties aren't the ones with the most immigrants.

In or Out? Greeks Should Vote on Euro
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jun 19, 2015
The public should decide the country's future currency.

EU Leaders Need an Emergency Plan B for Greece
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 19, 2015
Meeting should focus on preparing for the worst.

The Climate Pope
Johan Rockström (Project Syndicate) Jun 19, 2015
Pope Francis’s just-released encyclical on the environment sends a powerful message not just to the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics, but to the rest of the global population as well. Firmly rooted in science, the document recognizes the need for urgent action as the world confronts potentially catastrophic climate change.

Revolution and Reaction in Biopharming
Henry I. Miller (Project Syndicate) Jun 19, 2015
The technology known as "biopharming," which uses genetic engineering to induce agricultural crops to synthesize high-value pharmaceuticals, emerged with great promise about 15 years ago. Unfortunately, progress has since stalled, owing to the vehement risk-aversion of regulators.

Taking the BRICS Seriously
Shashi Tharoor (Project Syndicate) Jun 19, 2015
What the BRICS countries have in common is their exclusion from the places they believe they deserve in the current world order. This month's first-ever BRICS parliamentary forum was just the latest in an expanding array of institutions and formal structures that the group has launched with the aim of changing that.

Greece: Seeking a way forward Recommended!
Elias Papaioannou, Richard Portes and Lucrezia Reichlin (VoxEU) Jun 19, 2015
Greece seems to be on the verge of an agreement that would release much needed funds. This column argues that an agreement on completion of the second programme will not restore confidence, nor will it resolve the deep economic, financial and political uncertainties that confront Greece today. The focus should swiftly shift to the design of an efficient, realistic and truly reforming new programme.

Africa: Nigeria’s moment Economist Subscription Required
Economist Jun 20, 2015
How Africa’s most important failure can at last come right

Greece and the euro: My big fat Greek divorce Economist Subscription Required
Economist Jun 20, 2015
Greece and the euro zone are stuck in an abusive relationship.

Part III: Missed Opportunities: The Political Culture of Greece Since 1974
Heinz Richter (Globalist) Jun 20, 2015
How the old failings of the Greek state adapted to the era of European integration.

Greece: Seizing the Crisis’s reform opportunities
Michalis Haliassos (VoxEU) Jun 20, 2015
The Greek adjustment programme failed. This column argues that the problem lay in the programme’s design. By focusing on deficit reductions and the wrong type of reform, it failed to build up the only thing that could provide the basis for debt repayment – namely a dynamic, export-oriented productive base. A broader reform agenda that creates hope would be accepted by Greeks and it would make eventual repayment more likely. The need for some patience in reaching the final destination of this journey should no longer be an excuse for not taking the first step.

Central banks and sovereign debt crises: New evidence
Philippe Bacchetta, Elena Perazzi and Eric van Wincoop (VoxEU) Jun 20, 2015
A popular explanation for the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is self-fulfilling sentiments. What can central banks do to avoid self-fulfilling debt crises? This column argues that while in theory there are policies to make the public debt sustainable, central banks cannot credibly commit to them. The ability of a central bank to avert a self-fulfilling debt crisis is thus limited.

A way past the insanity over Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Willem Buiter (FT) Jun 21, 2015
Default need not trigger a sudden exit from the currency union.

The real challenge is to save the eurozone Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Jun 21, 2015
Grexit would be the point when the EU moves from integration, via stagnation, to disintegration.

‘Digital Gold’ by Nathaniel Popper Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gapper (FT) Jun 21, 2015
The anarchic birth of a cryptocurrency.

Time to transform world’s currency system Financial Times Subscription Required
Ousmène Mandeng (FT) Jun 21, 2015
IMF should expand special drawing rights inclusion beyond the renminbi.

US-China: Shifting sands Financial Times Subscription Required
Geoff Dyer (FT) Jun 21, 2015
There are concerns Washington needs a fresh approach to Beijing amid fears it is trying to push the US out of Asia.

Global Revenue Grab Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Jun 21, 2015
The U.S. seems ready to join Europe’s tax harmonization scheme.

Modi's Window for Reform Is Closing
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Jun 21, 2015
India's halting efforts at economic reform have been hit by scandal.

Chinese Investors Are Swimming in a Bubble
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 21, 2015
The stock market will collapse sooner, not later.

Greece and Germany Agree the Euro Can't Work
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Jun 21, 2015
Whatever the outcome, the EU has suffered lasting damage.

Easing Venezuela’s crash
Jackson Diehl (WP) Jun 21, 2015
With little leverage, the U.S. reaches out to the anti-American government.

The three perilous options facing Europe Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Jun 22, 2015
The truth is that whatever decisions are made, all choices could lead to chaos.

Sorry from pro-euro camp would be welcome Financial Times Subscription Required
Janan Ganesh (FT) Jun 22, 2015
For all the advantages to be eked out of an apology, the most pressing case for it is moral.

A safety net fit for the sharing economy Financial Times Subscription Required
Arun Sundararajan (FT) Jun 22, 2015
Paid holidays and other perks should not be exclusive to the salaried.

Clearing houses do not eliminate risk Financial Times Subscription Required
Gary Cohn (FT) Jun 22, 2015
They can be centres of risk, amplifying problems instead of alleviating them.

Lessons from the plight of Greek banks Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Jun 22, 2015
Powerful morality tale playing out for an indebted world.

India infrastructure: Built on debt Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Jun 22, 2015
Modi’s plans to improve roads, ports and railways look set to be hampered by debt-ridden companies.

Greece: Better Than Expected, But Still Not Good News
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Jun 22, 2015
The meeting of the Eurogroup of finance ministers on June 22 marked the first time after five months in office that the Greek government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras proposed reforms that the Eurogroup considered credible enough to even begin to discuss. This alone is a welcome if incomprehensibly long overdue development. But many challenges lie ahead before European authorities and Athens can pull back from the crisis.

After Greece: Germany and Europe On the Ruins of Multiple Illusions
Erwin Grandinger (Globalist) Jun 22, 2015
High time for more realism and a fundamental rethink of European structures.

If Greece Defaults, Europe's Taxpayers Lose
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Jun 22, 2015s
They're on the hook for more than 300 billion euros.

Swiss Central Bank Tries to Ride Out European Storm
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 22, 2015
Limited options in response to euro-zone turmoil.

Don't Worry About the Euro; It'll Be Fine
Leonid Bershidsky (Leonid Bershidsky) Jun 22, 2015
Most Europeans, Greeks included, like their common currency.

A Yellow Star for the Jewish State?
Bernard-Henri Lévy (Project Syndicate) Jun 22, 2015
The rapid succession in recent months of efforts to delegitimize Israel is no accident: All of the recent episodes can be traced, more or less directly, to the global Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement. It is time for BDS supporters to understand what the campaign is really about.

Why Small Booms Cause Big Busts
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Jun 22, 2015
By the time the global economic crisis is over, each dollar of excess investment in the housing market will likely have been responsible for roughly $6,000 in lost production. How can such a relatively small distortion in the allocation of investment cause so much economic damage?

Germany’s Power Problem
Giles Merritt (Project Syndicate) Jun 22, 2015
From think tanks and NGOs to media and business lobbying, Germans have become the EU’s foremost movers and shakers, and occupy its political institutions’ top posts. But, though indisputably the strongest and most dependable of the EU’s 28 member countries, Germany lacks a vision of where the beleaguered bloc should be heading.

Africa’s Succession Debates
Philip Gourevitch (New Yorker) Jun 22, 2015
What leaders can achieve by letting go.

Don’t sweat the debt if fiscal space is ample
Jonathan D Ostry, Atish R Ghosh & Raphael Espinoza (VoxEU) Jun 22, 2015
High public debt ratios dominate today's fiscal policy discussions. This column argues that paying down the debt involves a trade-off that balances the gains from the insurance value of low debt against the costs of an insurance premium – higher distortionary taxation. When countries have fiscal space and no real prospect of a sovereign crisis, the cost of bringing down the debt is likely to exceed the crisis-insurance benefit. The best policy might be to simply live with higher debt.

Transmission of Asset Purchases: The Role of Reserves
Jens H.E. Christensen and Signe Krogstrup (FRBSF Econ Letter) Jun 22, 2015
The Swiss National Bank expanded bank reserves as part of its unconventional monetary policy during the European sovereign debt crisis. The unprecedented expansion involved short-term rather than long-term asset purchases. This approach provides novel insights into how central bank balance sheet expansions affect interest rates. In particular, it illustrates how an expansion of reserves can lower long-term yields through a reserve-induced portfolio balance effect that is independent of the assets purchased.

Dangers of a subnormal interest rate world Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Jun 23, 2015
Debt and low investment returns both present problems.

A moonshot to save a warming planet Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin WOlf (FT) Jun 23, 2015
Improved technology might end our dependence on the burning of fossil fuels.

Road map needed for Asia infrastructure Financial Times Subscription Required
Jennifer Hughes (FT) Jun 23, 2015
China’s planned spending has banks and other investors wondering what might be left for them.

President Obama Must Use Trade Authority to Reach Better Agreements New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Jun 23, 2015
Now it is up to the administration to reach deals that uphold the high standards it has promised on labor rights, the environment and other issues.

It’s the Greek politics, stupid
Anne Applebaum (WP) Jun 23, 2015
The crisis in Greece is not, at base, an economic story: It is a political one.

Why Some Countries Work Less
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jun 23, 2015
A new study shows 'leisure culture' cuts time on the job.

The IMF Bows to Putin in Ukraine
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jun 23, 2015
When it comes to sovereign debt negotiations, might makes right.

Europe Could Call It Quits on QE
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jun 23, 2015
The ECB might not need to run its bond-buying program for as long as it first thought.

Greece's Punishing Deal
Marc Champion (Bloomberg View) Jun 23, 2015
Tsipras's flirtation with default might bring about capital controls.

America, China, and the Productivity Paradox
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Jun 23, 2015
As American and Chinese leaders meet for their annual Strategic Dialogue, they need not look far to find a shared challenge. Both are now victims of the “productivity paradox”: huge investments in information technology and Internet-enabled goods and services have been accompanied by slower growth in output per worker.

The Irrelevant Seven
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) Jun 23, 2015
At a time when the emergence of large, densely populated economic powerhouses like Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia is challenging Western dominance, many believe that the current international system is due for an upgrade. But what will replace bodies like the G-7?

A New Beginning for Greece – and Europe
Dennis J. Snower (Project Syndicate) Jun 23, 2015
If the Greek government does not credibly commit to structural reforms that are in the country’s own long-term interest, a voluntary exit from the eurozone would enable it to start anew. This would also impel the EU to pursue the fiscal and structural coordination needed to enable its monetary union to function properly.

The Problem With a Small Europe
Katharina Pistor (Project Syndicate) Jun 23, 2015
Presiding over Germany’s unification in the nineteenth century, Otto von Bismarck demonstrated how to use crises to force his preferred outcome – a practice that the leaders of Europe’s creditor countries seem to be emulating today. The difference is that Bismarck’s preferred outcome actually enhanced European stability.

Crisis risk building in Italy and France Financial Times Subscription Required
Satyajit Das (FT) Jun 24, 2015
Countries seem unable to tackle structural issues.

Small-town cop who bagged the bankers Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Milne (FT) Jun 24, 2015
Reykjavik upended the notion of too-big-to-fail and found an escape route from economic calamity.

Investing in infrastructure
Patrick Love (OECD Insights) Jun 24, 2015
William Topaz McGonagall is universally acknowledged as the worst poet who ever wrote in the English language, but that didn’t stop him having an intuitive grasp of the economics of infrastructure investment

The Two Sides of Japan's Deficit Trap
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jun 24, 2015
The elderly and local political backers will fight spending cuts.

The Good-Governance Trap
Jomo Kwame Sundaram and Michael T. Clark (Project Syndicate) Jun 24, 2015
Contrary to popular belief, there is little evidence that implementing good-governance reforms leads to more rapid and inclusive economic and social development. In fact, the focus on governance reform – based on a wide variety of one-size-fits-all indicators – may actually be undermining developing countries' progress.

Japan Stands Up
Yuriko Koike (Project Syndicate) Jun 24, 2015
At the recent G-7 summit in Germany, Japan broke with tradition, no longer content to sit on the diplomatic sidelines. At long last, Japan is constructing a foreign policy that reflects not only the global weight of its economy, but also the impact of faraway events on its national security.

Is Financial Repression Here to Stay?
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Jun 24, 2015
Can savers really expect the old normal in financial markets – positive long-term interest rates on government bonds – to return? There are two powerful reasons why it may be unreasonable to expect that it ever will.

Trade and growth – end of an era?
Bernard Hoekman (VoxEU) Jul 24, 2015
The world’s trade-to-GDP ratio climbed steadily for six decades. The rise slowed even before the Global Crisis and world trade growth has been anaemic since 2010. Recent data shows it declining, leading some to wonder whether global trade has peaked. This column introduces a new eBook that examines the issue from a wide range of perspectives. No consensus emerges but it is clear that this is not just a cyclical issue – something structural changed.

The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal? Recommended!
Bernard Hoekman and others (VoxEU) Jun 24, 2015
The post-Crisis decline in the growth rate of the ratio of global trade to GDP has been cause for some concern that global trade has peaked, and that we are now reaching a new normal in which trade levels will be weak in comparison to about a decade ago. Whether such a peak in trade was a defining moment in global trade or whether it is a cyclical phenomenon is one of the questions this eBook addresses.

Britain would not survive Brexit Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) Jun 25, 2015
It is understood in Berlin that Cameron cannot return from negotiations admitting defeat.

Chinese share swings have wider resonance Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Jun 25, 2015
Foreign investors may be deterred, hindering internationalisation.

Technology conceives the inconceivable Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Waters (FT) Jun 25, 2015
Some implications are too big and too revolutionary to grasp.

The modern Greek tragedy of financial crisis
Catherine Rampell (WP) Jun 25, 2015
We know how the ongoing debt crisis is going to end.

Dumping the Euro Isn’t a Cure-All: Easy Money Lets Governments Avoid Free-Market Reforms
Frank Hollenbeck (Mises Daily) Jun 25, 2015
The Greek drama continues to unfold with the risk of “grexit” becoming increasingly likely.

Trade Promotion Authority Secures Approval in US Congress
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 23 Jun 25, 2015
The US Senate approved Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) on Wednesday, just days after the House also voted in favour of the legislation. The bill is now set to go the US President's desk this week, where it is expected to be soon signed into law.

WTO Members Try to Break Farm Subsidy Logjam
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 23 Jun 25, 2015
Farm exporting countries have tabled a new informal paper on domestic agriculture subsidies at the WTO, in an attempt to move beyond the increasingly acrimonious stand-off between the US and China on farm subsidy spending.

China, Australia Sign Bilateral Trade Deal
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 23 Jun 25, 2015
Ministers from China and Australia formally signed a bilateral trade deal last week in Canberra, bringing the highly-anticipated agreement one step closer to enactment after over a decade of negotiations.

G-20 Members Implementing Fewer Trade Restrictions, WTO Says
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 23 Jun 25, 2015
Members of the G-20 coalition of major advanced and emerging economies have shown a slight slowdown in their use of trade-restrictive measures, the WTO said last week. However, the overall stock of such measures has risen by seven percent compared to the previous monitoring period, the global trade body said.

Russia's Pivot to China Is Real
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jun 25, 2015
Loans and trade are offsetting Western sanctions.

China's Latest Reform Shouldn't Be Its Last
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 25, 2015
Weak fiscal measures like looser lending will only make Beijing's problems worse.

The Diaspora Goldmine
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Jun 25, 2015
The relationship between diasporas and their homelands often encompasses a broad palette of sentiments, including distrust, resentment, envy, and enmity. But, since the rise of the first cities, migrants have been an invaluable asset not only to their new country, but also to their country of origin.

The Myth of Currency Manipulation
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Jun 25, 2015
Fears of currency manipulation have driven many observers to call for the inclusion in free-trade agreements of provisions prohibiting exchange-rate intervention. But such an approach would controvert the most fundamental rule of a flexible exchange-rate regime – and undermine global macroeconomic stability.

Food in the Age of Biofuels
José Graziano da Silva (Project Syndicate) Jun 25, 2015
For several years, advocates of biofuels as a weapon in the fight against climate change have faced off against those who view them as a threat to food supplies. But feeding the planet and helping to fuel its vehicles need not be mutually exclusive objectives.

Shinzo Abe’s Pivot To Asia
Bill Emmott (Project Syndicate) Jun 25, 2015
This August, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will give a major speech to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. The occasion will a momentous opportunity either to accelerate the process of rapprochement in East Asia or bring it to a halt.

Interpreting the yield curve: Pessimism or precaution?
Minouche Shafik (VoxEU) Jun 25, 2015
UK long-term yields are extraordinarily low. This could be interpreted as financial markets expecting prolonged low growth or low inflation, or both. This column argues that this view is overly gloomy. Factors pulling down today’s inflation are unlikely to be permanent, and the economic headwinds should ease gradually. Additionally, a return to productivity growth should facilitate faster potential output growth over the long term. A more likely interpretation is that low yields reflect precautionary actions by public and private financial-market participants to reduce vulnerabilities to adverse outcomes.

Economic Crisis: The Global Impact of a Greek Default Adobe Acrobat Required
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Jun 25, 2015
I will address two issues: the probability of a Greek default and its implications on the euro area and the global economy, and the exposure to the US taxpayer from loans given to Greece by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

IMF Would Be Other Casualty of Greek Default
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 26, 2015
Fund could lose standing as world's lender of last resort.

Shelter from the Storm in Europe
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Jun 26, 2015
To secure a prosperous future, Europe must confront three distinct challenges: the Greek crisis, Russia’s incursion in Ukraine, and the rise of populist political parties. While Europe could address each of these challenges individually with relatively little risk, all three must be addressed simultaneously.

Can China Beat Deflation?
Yu Yongding (Project Syndicate) Jun 26, 2015
After 39 consecutive months of declining producer prices, deflation is becoming a serious concern among Chinese economists and policymakers. Given slowing economic growth and massive corporate debts, China's authorities should learn from the recent past to avoid a deflationary spiral.

Why Latin America’s Center is Holding
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Jun 26, 2015
The Viennese writer Stefan Zweig allegedly said, “Brazil is the country of the future – and always will be.” Likewise, centrist politics in Latin America has perpetually been on the horizon – until now.

Economic networks for more innovative and resilient economies
Yasuyuki Todo and Petr Matous (VoxEU) Jun 26, 2015
Firm networks affect innovation and growth through diffusion of knowledge and information. This column argues that promoting ties with firms outside of the region should be an important part of cluster policies. Such ties can bring new information to the region and can enhance innovation. Distant firm partners can also help in the short-run recovery after a disaster, as was the case following the 2011 earthquake in Japan.

Linkages and economic development
Dominick Bartelme and Yuriy Gorodnichenko (VoxEU) Jun 26, 2015
Specialisation has been extensively researched at the micro and macro levels, but the middle one has received little attention. This column argues that the middle level – linkages across firms and industries within a country – can be important in economic development. Having built a database of input-output tables for a broad spectrum of countries and times, the authors show that countries with stronger linkages have indeed higher productivity.

Will Greece Make It to the Referendum?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 27, 2015
The next eight days of challenges could make the vote futile.

New Ways to Finance Education
Gordon Brown (Project Syndicate) Jun 27, 2015
The world is about to set itself the goal of giving every child access to pre-primary, primary, and secondary education by 2030. Despite the vital importance of the target, achieving it will be difficult – not least because there is an intensifying funding crisis within the aid community.

Ancestry and culture
Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg (VoxEU) Jun 27, 2015
Cultural transmission occurs both vertically – from one generation to the next – and, increasingly in modern times, horizontally – within generations and across populations. Using novel data for 74 countries, this column explores how genetic relatedness between populations affects the transmission of cultural traits. A pattern of positive and significant relationships is found between genetic distance and various measures of cultural distance, including language, religion, values, and norms. This implies that populations that are ancestrally closer face lower barriers to learning new ideas and behaviours from each other.

Such a referendum is a recipe for disaster Financial Times Subscription Required
Aristides Hatzis (FT) Jun 28, 2015
A Yes result will be a major defeat for Tsipras. He will have to resign.

China’s Debt Bomb Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Jun 28, 2015
Stock volatility is the latest sign of the economy’s excessive leverage.

The next financial crisis?
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Jun 28, 2015
Two reports suggest policies that aided recovery from the last one may be setting the stage for the next one.

Path to Grexit tragedy paved by political incompetence
Barry Eichengreen (The Conversation) Jun 28, 2015
Since our last episode, the crisis in Greece has escalated further.

Greece: Caught Between Nero and Catharsis
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Jun 28, 2015
The Syriza government has done wonders to unify the rest of the Eurozone.

Does China's Central Bank Know What It's Doing?
Bloomberg View Jun 28, 2015
As the Fed can attest, monetary policy can be hard to explain.

Defending the Chinese Model
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Jun 28, 2015
An intriguing argument for Chinese authoritarianism over Western democracy

China Finds a New Pump to Keep Stocks Aloft
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 28, 2015
Rate cut sends a message to traders: Keep buying.

Greek Referendum Is More Con Than Democracy
Marc Champion (Bloomberg View) Jun 28, 2015
Vote comes too late and asks the wrong question.

Greece – the day after: Time for a fresh start
Thorsten Beck (VoxEU) Jun 28, 2015
The breakdown of negotiations between Greece and the Troika comes as a shock. It is not, however, the end of the game. This column argues that the rupture can serve as a starting point for a new relationship between Greece and its creditors – an approach that does not provide fresh cash to the Greek government and does not impose specific policy reforms from outside.

Europe’s dream is dying in Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Jun 29, 2015
By locking the nation into a failed economic experiment the EU is destroying wealth and stability.

Do not bank on China QE to refuel stocks Financial Times Subscription Required
Diana Choyleva (FT) Jun 29, 2015
Beijing’s local government debt swap does not create new money.

Shadow banks take lead in risky lending Financial Times Subscription Required
Sujeet Indap (FT) Jun 29, 2015
Post-crisis crackdown leaves Wall St banks more cautious.

A failed euro would define Merkel’s legacy Financial Times Subscription Required
Marcel Fratzscher (FT) Jun 29, 2015
Germany’s critics feel vindicated. This will be stronger if Greece leaves.

US trade: Trailing behind Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Jun 29, 2015
The export-import bank is being shuttered, threatening the loss of jobs and overseas contracts.

Why Aren’t the Markets Freaking Out More About the Greek Crisis? New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Jun 29, 2015
Anyone in the last three years who has bet on declines of stocks and other risky assets has lost money.

Loads of Debt: A Global Ailment With Few Cures New York Times Subscription Required
Peter Eavis (NYT) Jun 29, 2015
Beyond Greece and Puerto Rico, heavy borrowing is bogging down the economies of Brazil, Turkey, Italy and China.

Profligate Puerto Rico on the Brink Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Daniel Hanson (WSJ) Jun 29, 2015
The governor says debts of $70 billion can’t be repaid. No wonder—serious solutions haven’t been tried.

How the euro became a weapon of mass destruction
Catherine Rampell (WP) Jun 29, 2015
European nations use the currency as a way to punish its neighbors.

Greece must sign a deal now
Various (CNBC) Jun 29, 2015
A call on Greece to sign a credible agreement with the Europeans immediately.

There's a simple solution to Greece's problems, but Europe won't try it
Adam Posen (Vox) Jun 29, 2015
There is a simple solution to the Greek crisis: the Northern European countries should write a check and end it. But they won't,

Greece Turns from Drama to Tragedy
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Jun 29, 2015
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's surprise call last week for a referendum on the austerity proposals by its international creditors, followed by the shuttering of Greece's banks and stock exchange on June 29, opens a dangerous new chapter of its crisis. It could also spell the end of Tsipras's political leadership. The prime minister's moves have inflicted lasting damage to the Greek economy. The most hopeful scenario from now on is that Greek voters reject his irresponsible call for a "no" vote on the referendum and approve a return to serious negotiations with the Troika of international creditors, returning Greece to the European fold.

Greece: A Tale of Three Referendums
Denis MacShane (Globalist) Jun 29, 2015
Europe is telling the Swiss, Greeks and the British to either live by the rules — or else…

A Grexit: Yes or No?
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Jun 29, 2015
The United States is trying to persuade Greece and its creditors to strike a deal before Sunday?s big referendum.

A Referendum on Greece's Contradictions
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jun 29, 2015
Greeks will finally make a clear choice about their country's future.

Greece Comes to a Sudden Stop. Now What?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 29, 2015
A lot can be done to limit the damage and place the economy on a sustainable path.

China's Magic Tricks Can't Save Its Stock Market
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jun 29, 2015
Beijing's usual economic levers no longer produce results.

Japan's Productivity Puzzle
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jun 29, 2015
Shinzo Abe won't accomplish much without labor reforms.

The Moral of the Greek Story
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Jun 29, 2015
European leaders were wrong to think they could solve problems Athens created.

Beware of a Humiliated Greece
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jun 29, 2015
Decisions motivated by wounded pride rarely work out well.

The Greek Damage, in One Chart
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Jun 29, 2015
In one year, private capital worth a third of GDP has fled.

Europe’s Attack on Greek Democracy
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Jun 29, 2015
The rising crescendo of bickering and acrimony within Europe might seem to outsiders to be the inevitable result of the bitter endgame playing out between Greece and its creditors. In fact, European leaders are finally beginning to reveal the true nature of the ongoing debt dispute, and the answer is not pleasant.

Renovating the World Order
Dominique Moisi (Project Syndicate) Jun 29, 2015
As violent conflicts and crises intensify worldwide, from Africa to Asia, it is becoming abundantly clear that there is no longer a guarantor of order – not international law or even a global hegemon – that countries view as legitimate and credible. The international system is clearly in need of an overhaul.

What is Full Employment?
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Jun 29, 2015
In an important sense, the US economy is now at full employment: The relatively tight labor market is causing wages to rise at an accelerating rate, because employers must pay more to attract and retain employees. This has important implications for policymakers – and not just at the Federal Reserve.

Emerging Markets After the Fed Hikes Rates
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Jun 29, 2015
The prospect that the US Federal Reserve will start exiting zero policy rates later this year has fueled growing fear of volatility in emerging economies’ currency, bond, and stock markets. But, with a few exceptions lacking systemic importance, widespread distress and crises need not occur.

Squashing the Superbugs
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Jun 29, 2015
Current antibiotics are becoming increasingly ineffective, raising the risk that infections like malaria and tuberculosis could become incurable. With the G-7 leaders having committed to tackle antimicrobial resistance, it is time for the more inclusive G-20 – and especially China – to take the fight to the next level.

What we know and what we don’t about Greece’s future in Europe
Douglas J. Elliott (Brookings) Jun 29, 2015
A status update on the economic turmoil in Greece.

Grexit: The staggering cost of central bank dependence
Charles Wyplosz (VoxEU) Jun 28, 2015
This weekend’s dramatic events saw the ECB capping emergency assistance to Greece. This column argues that the ECB’s decision is the last of a long string of ECB mistakes in this crisis. Beyond triggering Greece’s Eurozone exit – thus revoking the euro’s irrevocability – it has shattered Eurozone governance and brought the politicisation of the ECB to new heights. Bound to follow are chaos in Greece and agitation of financial markets – both with unknown consequences.

How do Japanese exporters manage their exchange rate exposure?
Takatoshi Ito, Satoshi Koibuchi, Kiyotaka Sato and Junko Shimizu (VoxEU) Jun 29, 2015
Japanese firms have been struggling with the yen’s volatility ever since the peg was dropped in 1973. This column, based on a recent survey of Japanese firms, argues that many firms have managed their exchange rate exposure by using operational and financial hedging strategies. It also finds that firms employing currency hedge and invoicing exports in yen are judged by the market to have reduced currency exposures.

The difficult choices facing the Greeks Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Jun 30, 2015
If I were a voter, I would bemoan my government’s leftism and the eurozone’s self-righteousness.

Syriza is not Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Yannis Palaiologos (FT) Jun 30, 2015
Despite the acrimony Europe is still alive in the hearts of most citizens.

Protect asset managers from doom-mongers Financial Times Subscription Required
Huw van Steenis (FT) Jun 30, 2015
Regulators should calibrate their response to risk, not inflict pain on mutual funds.

Debt clouds hang heavy over emerging Asia Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Jun 30, 2015
Export route to economic growth also blocked as world trade slows.

Foreign groups battle for India ecommerce Financial Times Subscription Required
James Crabtree (FT) Jun 30, 2015
Technology companies are piling in, seeking to replicate the dominance they enjoy in home markets.

Many Greeks Still Want a Deal New York Times Subscription Required
Jens Hainmueller and Yotam Margalit (NYT) Jun 30, 2015
A majority of voters seem willing to accept spending cuts and tax hikes if pensions, education and other areas remain untouched.

Behind the Foreign Shopping Spree for U.S. Companies Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Joe Kennedy (WSJ) Jun 30, 2015
With inversions under siege, now American firms are eager to be bought—to avoid onerous corporate taxes.

The Greek Crisis Is About More Than Money Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Robert D. Kaplan (WSJ) Jun 30, 2015
Greece was critical to the Cold War policy of Soviet containment. It is no less so in the age of Putin.

Down the rabbit-hole
Stefan Schneider (DB Research) Jun 30, 2015
These days, financial market commentaries are often laced with expressions such as "topsy-turvy" and "Alice in Wonderland". Recently, even Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda described the need for unconditional faith in the inflationary impact of Japanese monetary policy with a reference to Peter Pan, quoting Peter as saying that (in his world) "the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it".

Greece's Next Step: Overdue Debt and IOUs
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 30, 2015
Without cash to pay its bills, the government will move closer to leaving the euro.

China Is a Communist Success Story. Kinda.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jun 30, 2015
Its state-owned enterprises show central planning can work -- to a point.

Financial Markets Call Greece's Bluff
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jun 30, 2015
Athens badly misjudged its ability to scare the rest of Europe.

Why Greeks Will Vote 'Yes' to Europe
Matt Qvortrup (Bloomberg View) Jun 30, 2015
Europeans tend to stick together when tested.

Greeks, Welcome to the Soviet Union of 1991
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) JUn 30, 2015
What happens when a country goes bankrupt and loses access to external funding.

Getting the Trans-Pacific Partnership Right
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Jun 30, 2015
US President Barack Obama has promised that the Trans-Pacific Partnership will be the most progressive trade agreement in history. In that case, it should uphold international labor and environmental standards, as members of Obama’s own party are demanding.

The Future for Emerging Markets
Laura Tyson (Project Syndicate) Jun 30, 2015
Rapid changes in the global economic environment have rattled financial markets, spooked investors, and dampened interest in emerging market economies. But while emerging markets have suffered from recent uncertainty, it is too soon to rule them out as unprofitable investments.

A New Mission for the World Bank
Nancy Birdsall (Project Syndicate) Jun 30, 2015
The World Bank is considering cutting grants to organizations that support the provision of global public goods such as agricultural research and forest protection. But the Bank should be expanding, not reducing, its work in such areas.

From Bubbles to Bridges
Lucy P. Marcus (Project Syndicate) Jun 30, 2015
Boardrooms are all too often seen as secretive environments where big decisions influencing thousands of lives are made by faceless people. As people outside the boardrooms increasingly demand to hold those inside them to account, opening the avenues to communication will be critical to the long-term success of any company.

Africa’s Low-Carbon Revolution
Kevin Watkins (Project Syndicate) Jun 30, 2015
With the right regulatory environment and sufficient financing, renewable-energy technologies could transform Africa’s energy sector, bringing power to millions of the region’s citizens. Given the extent to which a lack of access to power impedes growth, job creation, and poverty reduction, there is no time to waste.

Central Banks: Printing Money Delays Domestic Structural Reforms
Will Hickey (YaleGlobal) Jun 30, 2015
Amid intense competition and quantitative easing, countries that innovate and reduce bureaucracy will be more influential

What moves the stock market?
Dan Greenwald, Martin Lettau and Sydney Ludvigson (VoxEU) Jun 30, 2015
Most theories explain the volatility of the stock market with shocks to macroeconomic fundamentals that have important consequences for growth. This column argues that the most important forces behind the longer term gains in the US stock market have not been drivers of economic growth. Instead, they have been an accumulation of random shocks which resulted in redistribution between workers and shareholders.

Greece can still avoid a catastrophic exit from the Eurozone
Domingo Cavallo (VoxEU) Jun 30, 2015
Grexit and the reintroduction of the drachma would have severe consequences for the Greek people. This column argues, based on Argentina's experience, that this would produce a sharp devaluation of the drachma, inflation, and a severe reduction in real wages and pensions. The effects would be far worse than the reductions that could have occurred as a consequence of the policies proposed by the Troika. By resuming negotiations, continuing with measures to achieve fiscal consolidation and carrying out adequate structural reforms, Greece could reverse the current situation in a sustainable way. It has the great advantage that the ECB, most European governments and the IMF are willing to resume negotiations.

No Exit Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
David Gordon and Thomas Wright (FA) Jun 30, 2015
Why Greece and Europe Will stay attached.

Terror must not trample on Tunisian institutions Financial Times Subscription Required
Claire Spencer (FT) Jul 1, 2015
It is not for the outside world to impose governance and economic reforms on the country.

Tsipras is holding out for debt relief Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Sandbu (FT) Jul 1, 2015
Greek PM will try to make bowing to creditors’ demands look like victory.

Keep politics out of infrastructure Financial Times Subscription Required
Sarah Gordon (FT) Jul 1, 2015
Economic strength depends on independent system to identify national needs and priorities.

Rethink needed for monetary policy role Financial Times Subscription Required
Alberto Gallo (FT) Jul 1, 2015
Iceland’s reform proposals may go too far but are worth consideration.

Greece’s crisis could be good for Europe
David Ignatius (WP) Jul 1, 2015
The continent’s elites have been dealt a reality check.

Economic Stagnation and the Global Bubble
David Stockman (Mises Daily) Jul 1, 2015
You’d think with all the “stimulus” from Washington over the fifteen years since the dotcom bust, American capitalism would be booming. It’s not. On the measures which count when it comes to sustainable growth and real wealth creation, the trends are slipping backwards — not leaping higher.

Can the Grexit Lemon Be Made into Lemonade?
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) Jul 1, 2015
With a referendum scheduled for Sunday and frantic negotiations spilling onto the front pages, the possibility of a Greek exit from the euro area, or Grexit, looms large. It is hard to see how Grexit could be avoided if the referendum results in a "no" vote. Such an exit is fraught with danger, yet it also holds hope for stronger economic growth in Greece over the next few years.

Benefits of the Greek Crisis
Martin Hüfner (Globalist) Jul 1, 2015
Why the eurozone will become more stable — thanks to the Tsipras episode.

Greece, Puerto Rico and China: Contagion or Quarantine?
Dan Weil (II) Jul 1, 2015
Market crises are reason for caution, but they don’t necessarily signal the spread of an all-out financial crisis. That’s the good news.

A Year After Oil Prices Fell, Supply and Demand Take Charge
Matt Mossman (II) Jul 1, 2015
Now that Saudi Arabia has walked away from its role as the world’s swing oil producer, U.S. output will determine prices.

Europe Wants to Punish Greece With Exit
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Jul 1, 2015
A default shouldn't force Greece out of the euro.

Gold Shrugs Off Armageddon
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Jul 1, 2015
Why didn't a meltdown in equities drive investors to the traditional refuge?

Reaganomics Won't Save Japan
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 1, 2015
Shinzo Abe gives voodoo economics a try.

The 'Demerging' Greek Economy
Marc Champion (Bloomberg View) Jul 1, 2015
What happens when growth shifts into reverse?

How About a Global Currency?
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jul 1, 2015
Don't knock the euro. Its travails may benefit everyone someday.

Why the Greek Bailout Failed
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Jul 1, 2015
As the crisis in Greek demonstrates, imposing structural reforms from outside a country is unlikely to succeed without the willingness of a capable government. If a bailout program requires a wholesale change in a country’s economic model, moving swiftly to write down outstanding debts may be the more sensible option.

The End of Work as We Know It
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Jul 1, 2015
Technology in the form of automation and digital intermediaries like Uber are fundamentally transforming the job market. Rather than try to stop the unstoppable, we should think about how to put this new reality at the service of our values and welfare.

The Greek people have paid for their governments’ mistakes – and for the errors of the Troika
Simon Wren-Lewis (New Statesman) Jul 1, 2015
The meltdown in Athens and the mistakes of the IMF.

Procyclical emerging market policy: New evidence
Otaviano Canuto, Francisco Carneiro and Leonardo Garrido (VoxEU) Jul 1, 2015
Industrialised and developing countries have differing fiscal strategies for dealing with the business cycle. But are countries’ strategies different according to whether they are industrialised? This column presents new evidence suggesting that the picture is complex. Procyclical fiscal policies remain the norm amongst most non-industrialised developing countries, but some key developing countries have recently moved toward a counter-cyclical stance as a result of strengthening institutions.

Japan and the Great Divergence, 725 to 1874
Jean-Pascal Bassino, Stephen Broadberry, Kyoji Fukao, Bishnupriya Gupta and Masanori Takashima (VoxEU) Jul 1, 2015
Japan was the first Asian nation to achieve modern economic growth. This column discusses new evidence suggesting that Japan’s growth started from a lower level than Britain’s and grew more slowly until the Meiji Restoration. The key to understanding modern economic growth seems to lie in identifying the forces that dampened growth reversals, rather than the forces responsible for growth itself.

The Robots Are Coming Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Daniela Rus (FA) Jul 1, 2015
How technological breakthroughs will transform everyday life.

Will Humans Go the Way of Horses? Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee (FA) Jul 1, 2015
Labor in the Second Machine Age.

The Plunder of Africa Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Howard W. French (FA) Jul 1, 2015
How everybody holds the continent back.

A World Without Work
Derek Thomson (Atlantic) Jul 1, 2015
For centuries, experts have predicted that machines would make workers obsolete. That moment may finally be arriving. What will a society without jobs look like—and how should we prepare?

Why the Saudis Are Going Solar
Jeffrey Ball (Atlantic) Jul 1, 2015
The fate of one of the biggest fossil-fuel producers may now depend on its investment in renewable energy.

Inequality Is Enemy No. 1
Don Peck (Atlantic) Jul 1, 2015
The urgency of fixing income disparities around the world.

Puerto Rico crisis in US back yard Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Jul 2, 2015
The problem bedevilling the island is not just its $72bn debt but any obvious way to restructure it.

Managing the unmanageable Grexit contagion Financial Times Subscription Required
Robert Shrimsley (FT) Jul 2, 2015
Market analysts discuss the prognosis of its sick patient.

Why Grexit odds are probably 99% wrong Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Jul 2, 2015
Range of estimates reveals markets’ inability to price political risks.

Greece should vote for the rule of law Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) Jul 2, 2015
There remains a conviction that the future belongs to the EU’s model of shared sovereignty

Sharing economy starts to go mainstream Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Waters (FT) Jul 2, 2015
Companies that deliver a truly new service have a strong future.

Europe's Many Economic Disasters
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jul 2, 2015
Economic failure extends far beyond Greece.

Weak Power Grids in Africa Stunt Economies and Fire Up Tempers New York Times Subscription Required
Norimitsu Onishi (NYT) Jul 2, 2015
Sub-Saharan Africa’s power generating capacity amounts to less than South Korea’s, and a quarter of it is unproductive at any given moment because of the continent’s aging infrastructure.

What’s Driving Bolivia’s Booming Economy
Simon Wilson (Mises Daily) Jul 2, 2015
To the surprise of many, Bolivia is now Latin America’s fastest growing economy

TPP Timeline in Focus as Obama Signs Trade Promotion Authority into Law
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 24 Jul 2, 2015
US President Barack Obama signed Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) into law on Monday, putting an end to the months-long drama in Washington over the controversial legislation's fate. With the TPA debate now in the rear-view mirror, the focus has now turned to the potential timeline for wrapping up the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks.

EU, China Leaders Make Investment, Climate Push
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 24 Jul 2, 2015
The EU and China are aiming to have a joint text for a sweeping bilateral investment pact by year's end, leaders from the two sides said on Monday following a summit in Brussels, in a move that could eventually pave the way for future consideration of a potential trade deal.

UN Negotiators Review "Zero Draft" for Post-2015 Development Agenda
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 24 Jul 2, 2015
UN negotiators meeting in New York last week commented on a "zero draft" for a new global development agenda and engaged in substantive discussions on key sections, including a declaration, a planned set of sustainable development goals (SDGs), means of implementation, and how to monitor progress in the coming years.

A Political and Intellectual Proxy War over Greece
Angel Ubide (PIIE) Jul 2, 2015
The escalation of the conflict over Greece is more than a dispute between the government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Greece's international creditors. The conflict is a proxy for two wars—one intellectual and one political—in which the Greek people, especially the poor, have been taken hostage.

Greece's Future Is in Greek Hands
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Jul 2, 2015
The Greek government has dug itself and its people into a hole over the last week, as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has reversed himself on an ever growing list of key issues. His government is now suddenly in favor of a third bailout from the euro area (though excluding the International Monetary Fund this time), and has more or less accepted the very proposals he labeled an insult to European democracy a few days ago. On the other hand, he is still calling for rejection of the referendum on whether to accept the terms of international creditors in return for a bailout.

The Question for Greek Voters
Marc Champion (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2015
Can Greece's current government boost productivity?

No, the U.S. Won't Follow Greece Over the Cliff
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2015
American fiscal policy is flawed. But it's not that flawed.

China's Boom Has World Bank Worried
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2015
A warning that sudden wealth can warp priorities.

Switzerland's Currency Conundrum
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2015
An appreciating franc is bad news for exports.

What Energy Shortage?
Jostein Eikeland (Project Syndicate) Jul 2, 2015
We humans are not facing a shortage of energy. We are facing a technical challenge in capturing it and delivering it to consumers; and one of the most efficient ways to meet that challenge is by investing in better ways to store it.

Lessons for Oslo
Julia Gillard (Project Syndicate) Jul 2, 2015
As the world prepares to agree to the Sustainable Development Goals that will guide development efforts for the next 15 years, there is a growing recognition of the degree to which the development agenda depends on education. The upcoming education summit in Oslo reflects that recognition.

Cross-border acquisitions and labour regulations
Ross Levine and Chen Lin (VoxEU) Jul 2, 2015
Labour market regulations have important implications for both the incidence of cross-border acquisitions, and the outcomes for acquiring firms. This column explores how variations in labour regulations between countries affect cross-border acquisitions and subsequent firm performance. For a sample of 50 countries, firms are found to enjoy larger returns when they acquire a target in a country with weaker labour regulations than the acquirer’s home country.

China Spotlight: What Happens When the Music Stops? A Closer Look at the Chinese Equity Market Recommended!
Sonja Gibbs, Weiwei Chen, Emre Tiftik and Fiona Nguyen (IIF) Jul 2, 2015
The recent drop in Chinese equities is a healthy correction after a sharp sentiment fueled rally. Continued near-term volatility seems likely, but at lower valuations the market should find support from recent policy measures. Longer-term prospects remain promising as the market is opened and its infrastructure improves.

Stock prices and high-frequency news analytics
Bastian von Beschwitz, Donald B. Keim and Massimo Massa (VoxEU) Jul 2, 2015
High-frequency news analytics can increase market efficiency by allowing traders to react faster to new information. One concern about such services is that they might provide a competitive advantage to their users with potential distortionary price effects. This column looks at how high frequency news analytics affect the stock market, net of the informational content that they provide. News analytics improve price efficiency, but at the cost of reducing liquidity and with potentially distortionary price effects.

Greece's Sorry Reckoning New York Times Subscription Required
Nikos Konstandaras (NYT) Jul 3, 2015
A lot more is at stake than the only stable currency the nation has had in a history punctuated by bankruptcies.

Billionaires to the Barricades New York Times Subscription Required
Aln Feuer (NYT) Jul 3, 2015
Some of the world’s wealthiest are publicly addressing the gap between the working class and the 1 percent.

How Iceland Emerged From Its Deep Freeze New York Times Subscription Required
Jenny Anderson (NYT) Jul 3, 2015
Unemployment is 4 percent, the International Monetary Fund is predicting 4.1 percent G.D.P. growth for 2015, and tourism is booming.

Greece: How Long Can Tsipras Cling to Power?
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Jul 3, 2015
Will Greeks' common sense on the euro trump over the undeniable charisma of Tsipras?

Are Markets Judging the Risk of Grexit Correctly?
Michael Heise (Globalist) Jul 3, 2015
Assessing the impact of a Grexit on financial markets and the Eurozone economy.

Greece Is Doing Democracy Wrong
Noah Feldman (Bloomberg View) Jul 3, 2015
It's a bad idea to let everyone vote in a crisis.

'Neglected Prophet' of Economics Got It Right
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jul 3, 2015
Negative rates in Europe bring utopian ideas to life.

Reviving Islam’s Enlightenment
Daniel Chirot and Scott L. Montgomery (Project Syndicate) Jul 3, 2015
Panicked attempts to march into Muslim countries and extirpate the threat have been counterproductive, only serving to increase the appeal of Islamic extremism. Western scholars who understand Islam and speak some of the many languages of its practitioners need to support these intellectual movements.

Education in Emergencies
Anthony Lake (Project Syndicate) Jul 3, 2015
Education not only boosts children’s chances of building a better life for themselves and their families; it also instills in them the skills and values they need to end conflicts and help rebuild their societies. That is why global education initiatives should include a focus on schooling in crisis-affected environments.

Europe’s Digital Wrong Turn
Christopher Engman (Project Syndicate) Jul 3, 2015
In May, the European Commission announced that it would create a unified digital market of 500 million consumers that would add €415 billion to the European Union’s GDP and create some 3.8 million jobs. Unfortunately, a recent decision on one key digital issue – data privacy – threatens to derail that effort.

A Way Out for Greece
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Jul 3, 2015
Easing Greece’s debt burden while keeping it within the eurozone is the correct and achievable path out of the country's crisis, and it can be achieved easily through a mutual accord between Germany and Greece. The result would be a win not only for the two countries – but also for the world economy.

Achieving Education for All
Irina Bokova (Project Syndicate) Jul 3, 2015
To leave no person or country behind is the ultimate ambition of the development agenda that will be adopted at the United Nations this September. The first step toward achieving that goal is ensuring a high-quality education for all.

An economist explains why the key to a free world lies with China
Miles Kimball (Quartz) Jul 3, 2015
People love freedom, and will never be content for long without it.

9 myths about the Greek crisis
James K. Galbraith (Politico) Jul 3, 2015
An insider’s take on the conventional wisdom to ignore.

Greece is solvent but illiquid: Policy implications
Paul De Grauwe (VoxEU) Jul 3, 2015
Greece’s debt is 180% of GDP, which seems to make it insolvent without large primary surpluses. This column argues that since restructuring lowered the interest burden to just 2% of GDP, Greece is solvent – or would be with nominal GDP growth of just 2%. The ECB’s misdiagnosis has caused an unnecessary banking crisis. The solution is to accept that Greek debt is sustainable, so the austerity programme can be relaxed and liquidity support provided to the Greek banking sector.

The meaning of a referendum: Austerity and sovereignty
Daniel Gros (VoxEU) Jul 4, 2015
Two financial crises at the ‘sub federal’ are currently taking place – one in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and the second one in Greece. This column highlights some surprising similarities between them, as well as the main differences. The Eurozone is a voluntary union of states which remain sovereign. But if Greece were part of the US, it could not hold a referendum, and its budget would be drawn up by a federal bankruptcy court. The key political difference is not austerity, but the fact that Greece’s debt is mainly to official creditors, who are ideal targets for political pressure.

Greek Referendum Myths
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 4, 2015
A hastily arranged vote won't resolve the crisis. It may make it worse.

Tribalism: Understanding Europe And The Greek Crisis
Jean-Pierre Lehmann (Forbes) Jul 4, 2015
I have been a Europhile all my life. Consequently I have favored most initiatives to deepen and/or expand the European Union.

Europe and Greece on the Brink
Mark Roe (Project Syndicate) Jul 4, 2015
Greece would suffer from an exit from the eurozone, but at least it would regain the ability to devalue its currency. For Europe, however, the risk is all on the downside, with the possibility that the crisis could reverberate through the continent’s real economy.

The market economy’s stability
Paul Beaudry, Dana Galizia and Franck Portier (VoxEU) Jul 4, 2015
Whereas some view the macroeconomy as overall stable and on a smooth long-run growth path, others argue it is unstable with repeated periods of booms and busts. This column suggests that the market economy is inherently unstable and booms and busts arise endogenously as the results of market incentives. Monetary policy is then perhaps not the right tool for addressing macroeconomic fluctuations. Instead, policies aimed at changing the incentives would be more appropriate.

Currency is not destiny
Stephen Kinsella, Hamid Raza and Gylfi Zoega (VoxEU) Jul 4, 2015
Iceland and Ireland were both rocked by the fallout of the Global Crisis. This column argues that differences in currency arrangements affected the mechanisms of the boom and the collapse. Iceland’s banks collapsed because they did not have a lender of last resort in euros. Ireland did. But Iceland’s collapse and ensuing capital controls shifted the burden of debt restructuring onto foreign creditors to a much greater extent than in Ireland.

Determinants of banks’ home bias
Tamon Asonuma, Said Bakhache and Heiko Hesse (VoxEU) Jul 4, 2015
Home bias in banks’ holdings of domestic government debt could pose problems for financial stability and crisis management. This column discusses some of the determinants of this bias. Factors that increase macroeconomic instability are associated with higher home bias, while better investment opportunities in the private sector and better institutional quality reduce home bias.

The corporate debt bias and the cost of banking crises
Sven Langedijk, Gaëtan Nicodème, Andrea Pagano and Alessandro Rossi (VoxEU) Jul 4, 2015
Strengthening the banking sector through higher equity capital is one of the key elements of policies aiming to reduce the probability of crises. However, the ‘corporate debt bias’ – the tendency of corporate tax systems to favour debt over equity – is at odds with this objective. This column estimates the benefits for financial stability of eliminating the corporate debt bias. Fully removing the debt bias is estimated to reduce potential public finance losses by between 25 and 55% for the six large EU countries sampled.

The US is a helpless bystander on Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Edward Luce (FT) Jul 5, 2015
Washington has urged EU to write off Athens’ debts in return for restructuring, to no avail.

China’s credit and stock market party Financial Times Subscription Required
George Magnus (FT) Jul 5, 2015
Debt growth has fallen but is still rising at twice the rate of nominal GDP.

The Greeks deserve more than threats Financial Times Subscription Required
Nick Malkoutzis (FT) Jul 5, 2015
People need something more hopeful than talk of further cuts and tax rises.

No vote will widen fissures Financial Times Subscription Required
Tony Barber (FT) Jul 5, 2015
Alexis Tsipras and his colleagues have brought catastrophe to their nation.

Greek battle will go on post referendum Financial Times Subscription Required
Hugo Dixon (FT) Jul 5, 2015
Greece’s pro-Europeans risk losing political battle after Sunday’s referendum.

The Democrats’ Fractured Views on Trade New York Times Subscription Required
Vikas Bajaj (NYT) Jul 5, 2015
It is hard to assess conflicting arguments over trade deals, because both sides assign far too much importance to individual deals.

Ending Greece’s Bleeding New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jul 5, 2015
If Greece can’t live with the euro, it will be because the currency offers no respite for countries in trouble.

India’s Leader Maps Out a More Robust Digital Future New York Times Subscription Required
Nida Najar (NYT) Jul 5, 2015
With the country lagging behind much of the world in digital infrastructure, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is pushing for greater Internet connectivity and services as well as electronics manufacturing.

China’s Market Rout Is a Double Threat New York Times Subscription Required
Keith Bradsher and Chris Buckley (NYT) Jul 5, 2015
A failure to halt the sell-off in stocks in the last three weeks has shaken Beijing’s aura of invincibility and imperils the global economy.

Greece and global debt
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Jul 5, 2015
Its troubles offer a tutorial for the world.

Still a long way to go for China’s new normal
Ross Garnaut (EAF) Jul 5, 2015
China’s old model of growth produced the strongest, most resource-intensive economic growth the world has ever seen.

Independence Day for Greece
Uwe Bott (Globalist) Jul 5, 2015
Should Greece follow the U.S. example — and issue its own Declaration of Independence?

“Oxi”: A Historic Greek Vote Against Austerity
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Jul 5, 2015
The “Oxi” vote was a political victory, not an economic one. Greece is still broke, and its banks are still closed.

Ex-Im Bank's Bad Rap for Crony Capitalism
Albert R. Hunt (Bloomberg View) Jul 5, 2015
Why deny funding to an engine of U.S. exports and job creator?

10 Consequences of Greece's 'No'
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 5, 2015
Greeks are mad as hell and won't take it anymore.

Greece Should Vote Yes and Europe Should Be Ashamed
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Jul 5, 2015
Resolving this crisis required statesmen. If Europe still has any, they kept quiet.

Fragile Europe, Exposed and Unmoored Foreign Policy Subscription Required
Paola Subacchi (FP) Jul 5, 2015
The fig leaf that was covering up the flaws in the single currency has finally fallen off. Where do we go from here?

De-industrialisation, ‘new Speenhamland’ and neo-liberalism
Jim Tomlinson (VoxEU) Jul 5, 2015
In Britain today, a majority of those in poverty live in working, rather than non-working, households. This challenges the long-held notion that paid work offers a route out of poverty. This column argues that structural changes in the labour market have brought about profound changes in the social security system. A failure to acknowledge these underlying changes means that dialogues about the political direction of the British economy can be problematic and potentially misleading.

Determinants of fluctuations in the financial system
Gert Peersman and Wolf Wagner (VoxEU) Jul 5, 2015
The events of recent years have made it all too clear that we need to better understand the links between the financial sector and the real economy. This column explores financial sector shocks and real economy shocks and presents new evidence suggesting that financial shocks are a significant source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Policymakers need to better take into account the role of the financial system when predicting the future and when readying remedies.

De-industrialisation, ‘new Speenhamland’ and neo-liberalism
Jim Tomlinson (VoxEU) Jul 5, 2015
In Britain today, a majority of those in poverty live in working, rather than non-working, households. This challenges the long-held notion that paid work offers a route out of poverty. This column argues that structural changes in the labour market have brought about profound changes in the social security system. A failure to acknowledge these underlying changes means that dialogues about the political direction of the British economy can be problematic and potentially misleading.

Market sell-off tests Xi’s reform agenda Financial Times Subscription Required
Tom Mitchell (FT) Jul 6, 2015
Turbulence challenges president’s image as transformative strongman.

US markets not immune from Greek turmoil Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Jul 6, 2015
Equities and corporate bonds vulnerable to risk aversion.

Japan: Women in the workforce Financial Times Subscription Required
Leo Lewis (FT) Jul 6, 2015
New legislation is designed to get more females into work but, argue critics, corporate Japan needs wholesale change.

How to Undo the Damage in Greece New York Times Subscription Required
Gikas Hardouvelis (NYT) Jul 6, 2015
A former Greek finance minister argues that the next few days are crucial. Lenders must compromise and Tsipras must stop gambling with the livelihood of future generations.

How to Make Sense of China’s Plummeting Stock Market New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Jul 6, 2015
Four charts show why the sharp drop in Chinese markets was more predictable than you might expect.

An Econ Lesson in a Shanghai Market Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Craig Richardson (WSJ) Jul 6, 2015
I sent my students on a mission to haggle for a souvenir statue. Best negotiator wins a prize.

Greek Political Contagion Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Jul 6, 2015
Parties of the left across Europe are looking to Syriza as an anti-reform model.

It Is Up To Alexis Tsipras to Avoid Disaster Now
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Jul 6, 2015
Greek voters yesterday overwhelmingly rejected further tax increases and spending cuts in a referendum on austerity measures demanded by Greece's international creditors. While the "no" vote greatly strengthens the Greek government's position domestically, it essentially has no value outside the country.

Worry but also Relief among Greece's Neighbors
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Jul 6, 2015
The rapidly escalating financial troubles that Greece faces worry its neighbors for three main reasons. First, Greek banks account for a significant share of corporate lending in Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Macedonia, Romania, and Serbia.

Greek Taxpayers Facing a Future of Debt Slavery
Ian Daily (Mises Daily) Jul 6, 2015
Greece has defaulted on its debt to the International Monetary Fund, the first “developed” country to do so. But is Greece merely a casualty of a flawed eurozone or a canary in the coal mine?

Greece: The Franco-German Split Over "Solidarity" in Europe
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Jul 6, 2015
Why are Europe's two key economies so deeply divided over this issue?

Beijing Versus the Stock Market
Bloomberg View Jul 6, 2015
Markets that are only allowed to rise keep rising -- until they crash, hard.

China's Bull Market in Conspiracy Theories
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 6, 2015
Blaming foreigners won't stop stocks from falling.

The (Inadequate) Case for Economic Pessimism
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Jul 6, 2015
Economists who say the U.S. is stuck with slow growth are misguided.

Why the Euro Is Failing
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg View) Jul 6, 2015
Everyone in Europe's currency union has resisted making hard choices.

Greeks Have Voted, Now Kick Them Out
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jul 6, 2015
A new deal with Greece would set a bad example for aspiring EU members.

Greek Referendum Wasn't What You Think
Marc Champion (Bloomberg View) Jul 6, 2015
Voters only said they'd like to feel less pain.

The Catharsis of a Greek Exit
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jul 6, 2015
Kicking Greece out of the euro is the better of two bad options.

Stock Market Misadventures, Chinese-Style
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Jul 6, 2015
Chinese officials' interventions aren't so foreign.

Greeks Stand Up to 'Lemon Socialism'
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Jul 6, 2015
The EU demands private profits and public losses.

Help Greece Leave the Euro
Eric Beinhocker (Bloomberg View) Jul 6, 2015
A managed exit could give Greece hope and restore European unity.

China Steers Toward a Subprime Economy
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 6, 2015
A risky plan to buttress equities markets.

Greece Hits the Self-Destruct Button
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Jul 6, 2015
Greeks squared off against Germans, and neither won.

Knowledge for Progress
Kevin Watkins (Project Syndicate) Jul 6, 2015
It has been suggested that the world is overestimating the role of education in economic development. But, while education is not a quick fix for slow growth, it is virtually impossible to name a country that has sustained an economic transformation without advances in education.

No Education, No Development
Erna Solberg and Børge Brende (Project Syndicate) Jul 6, 2015
The 121 million young people who are out of school today are not only being denied their basic right to education; they are being denied a fair chance to escape poverty, support their families, and develop their communities. This year, so crucial for global development, we must change this by making education a top priority.

A Way Out For Greece After The 'No' Vote
Charles W. Calomiris (Forbes) Jul 6, 2015
The “no” vote in Athens shows that Greek voters want other Europeans to continue to pay for their unsustainable high living – no news there. The more interesting story is that Greeks want to leave the euro by way of a public choice rather than a market shove.

Why China's Stock Markets Matter
Stratfor Jul 6, 2015
China's stock markets on July 8 continued the precipitous three-week slide that began on June 12.

G(reece)2K Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Brendan Simms (FA) Jul 6, 2015
How to contain Athens' economic problems.

Athens on the Caribbean Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Deepak Lamba-Nieves and Andrew Schrank (FA) Jul 6, 2015
Puerto Rico's own financial crisis.

Germans Forget Postwar History Lesson on Debt Relief in Greece Crisis New York Times Subscription Required
Eduardo Porter (NYT) Jul 7, 2015
The main creditor demanding that Greeks be made to pay for past profligacy benefited not so long ago from more lenient terms than it is now prepared to offer.

Someone needed to speak truth to Europe Financial Times Subscription Required
Takatoshi Ito (FT) Jul 7, 2015
In the eurozone the IMF has let itself to be used by leaders as political cover.

IMF could play its part to save Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Jul 7, 2015
It may be time for fund to look at rule book and consider following its own advice.

Currency skirmishes become pitched battles Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Jul 7, 2015
Competitive devaluations raise threat of full-blown protectionism.

India: Land in demand Financial Times Subscription Required
Amy Kazmin (FT) Jul 7, 2015
As the country shifts from an agrarian to an industrialised economy, selling farmland fairly is a priority.

China’s Stock Plunge Is Scarier Than Greece Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Ruchir Sharma (WSJ) Jul 7, 2015
There are four basic signs of a bubble, and the Chinese stock market is on the extreme end of all four.

Argentina’s Debt New York Times Subscription Required
Cecilia Nahon (NYT) Jul 7, 2015
The ambassador of Argentina blames a court ruling for interfering with the country’s efforts to pay off its debt.

It's Time for Greece to Leave the Euro New York Times Subscription Required
Jochen Bittner (NYT) Jul 7, 2015
The euro zone is only hurting itself by trying to keep Greece as a member.

Greece is trapped by the euro
David Ignatius (WP) Jul 7, 2015
It’s time for the monetary equivalent of a divorce lawyer who can help reckon the costs of a breakup.

Twilight of the Euro Welfare State? Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Holman Jenkins (WSJ) Jul 7, 2015
It’s not from charitable impulse that Germany is reluctant to let Greece leave the common currency.

Cutting Greece Loose Might Be a Win-Win Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
William Galston (WSJ) Jul 7, 2015
The EU could blame the balky Greeks, who would be freed of the euro yoke.

Greece: What Lies Ahead?
Meghnad Desai (Globalist) Jul 7, 2015
To protect the weak, Syriza has to extend a hand to the powerful, especially foreign investors.

Greece should default on its IMF loans
Bodo Ellmers (Bretton Woods Project) Jul 7, 2015
The IMF loan should not be repaid, not just for Greece’s benefit but for the Fund’s own long-term good.

Brazil's Fiscal Adjustment: Chronicle of a Death Foretold?
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Jul 7, 2015
Is a Brazil heading into a full-fledged fiscal crisis? Government officials say no, noting that President Dilma Rousseff, who has just completed a visit to Washington to try to repair ties with the United States, appointed an appropriately orthodox finance minister, Joaquim Levy, after winning re-election in 2014.

After the Greek Referendum: A Democracy Mismatch in Public Debt Crises
Anna Gelpern (PIIE) Jul 7, 2015
Yesterday's Greek referendum might look like a high point for democratic accountability, but it was not. When Greek citizens rejected the demands of their government's international creditors, the outcome bound Greek politicians but not the creditors that have prescribed economic policy for Greece since 2010.

Returning to the drachma won't save Greece
Tomas Hirst (Pieria) Jul 7, 2015
The tough road ahead for Greeks keeps getting made more difficult.

China Tries Japan's Approach to a Stock Bubble
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 7, 2015
If Beijing doesn't change course, it's heading for a lost decade or two.

Only 'Pragmatic Compromise' Can Save Greece
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 7, 2015
The burden of restarting the economy must be shared.

The 'Wisdom of Crowds' Is Not That Wise
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Jul 7, 2015
Some markets are smarter than others. Witness the Greek debacle.

The next chapter in the Greek crisis
Carlos A. Primo Braga (IMD) Jul 7, 2015
The Greek political and economic crises have entered a harrowing new chapter.

Slow-Growth Pessimists Miss the Mark
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Jul 7, 2015
Once U.S. consumers deleverage, rapid growth will resume.

Reinvent the Export-Import Bank
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 7, 2015
Have it act like a venture capitalist.

Debt Relief Should Be Greece's Parting Gift
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jul 7, 2015
Europe should help Athens on its way out the door.

How Greece's Bank Bailout Benefited Greeks
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jul 7, 2015
The bank run took the bailout money away.

Statesmanship and the Greek Crisis
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Jul 7, 2015
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have the opportunity to go down in history as great European statesmen. Rapprochement between their two countries, combined with the promise of debt relief, will restore economic confidence and save Greece and the euro.

Greece’s “No” is No Victory for Democracy
Bernard-Henri Lévy (Project Syndicate) Jul 7, 2015
Despite what many are saying – especially those who do not have to bear the consequences of their words – Greek voters’ rejection on Sunday of the latest bailout offer from their country’s creditors did not represent a “victory for democracy.” In fact, it is quite the opposite.

Why Ukraine Deserves a Haircut
Erik Berglöf (Project Syndicate) Jul 7, 2015
The battle in Ukraine over the future of reform is far from won, but real progress has been made. The country's private creditors must now do their part and join the international community and the IMF in taking a haircut on their debts.

International Taxation and Global Development
José Antonio Ocampo (Project Syndicate) Jul 7, 2015
When it comes to funding development, taxes are perhaps the most critical piece of the puzzle. But the system for taxing multinational companies’ global profits is broken – and it is exacerbating inequality both within and across countries.

Greece’s Vote for Sovereignty
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Jul 7, 2015
When the Greeks voted “no” in the July 5 referendum they asserted the priority of their democracy over those in other eurozone countries. If the Greek vote is a victory for anything, it is a victory for national sovereignty.

China Peak Oil: 2015 Is the Year
Gave Collins (Diplomat) Jul 7, 2015
Domestic production looks set to peak, with some profound implications for the world market.

Greece - A Mess With Consequences
David Dapice (YaleGlobal) Jul 7, 2015
Greek voters soundly rejected a set of reforms from the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund. The “no” vote may mark the beginning of Greece’s exit from the eurozone, and the uncertainty of what happens next comes at a bad time for the global economy, warns economist David Dapice.

The Greek Vote and the EU Miscalculation Recommended!
George Friedman (Stratfor) Jul 7, 2015
In a result that should surprise no one, the Greeks voted to reject European demands for additional austerity measures as the price for providing funds to allow Greek banks to operate.

Why growth in finance is a drag on the real economy
Stephen Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi (VoxEU) Jul 7, 2015
A booming financial sector means economic growth. Or does it? This column presents new evidence showing that when the financial sector grows more quickly, productivity tends to grow disproportionately slower in industries with either lower asset tangibility or in industries with higher research and development intensity. It turns out that financial booms are not, in general, growth-enhancing.

Effects of income inequality on economic growth
Markus Brückner and Daniel Lederman (VoxEU) Jul 7, 2015
The relationship between aggregate output and income inequality is central in macroeconomics. This column argues that greater income inequality raises the economic growth of poor countries and decreases the growth of high- and middle-income countries. Human capital accumulation is an important channel through which income inequality affects growth.

A Pain in the Athens Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Mark Blyth (FA) Jul 7, 2015
Why Greece isn't to blame for the crisis.

The Problem With China’s Efforts to Prop Up Its Stock Market New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Jul 8, 2015
When a government tries to intervene in these cases, it can mean pouring money down a sinkhole and merely delaying an inevitable correction.

Germany's Failure of Vision New York Times Subscription Required
Bruce Ackerman (NYT) Jul 8, 2015
The European project rejects the consolidation of power in one country's hands. Does Angela Merkel understand that?

Greek crisis a reminder the European Union was a terrible idea to begin with
George F. Will (WP) Jul 8, 2015
Voters tell creditors to send more money with fewer conditions.

Greece’s Biggest Problem Is Its Anti-Capitalist Culture
Russell Lamberti (Mises Daily) Jul 8, 2015
It’s considered politically incorrect to criticize culture these days, but whether using euros or drachmas, in or out of the European Union, Greece really has to, somehow, sort out its cultural dysfunction.

Greece Needs Debt Relief
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) Jul 8, 2015
The country needs to borrow money just to keep the lights on.

Chinese Stocks: What's Behind the Great Market Tumble?
Jacques deLisle and Ann Lee (Knowledge@Wharton) Jul 8, 2015
The Chinese stock market rout is raising global worries. What are the impications for the world's second-largest economy, and for investors elsewhere?

No Should Mean No to Protect the Euro From Greece
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jul 8, 2015
The euro needs to be freed from 'grimbo.'

China's 'Dow 36,000' Moment
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Jul 8, 2015
Officials tried to control a complex system. It backfired.

Greeks, Germans and These So-Called Deadlines
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jul 8, 2015
Blame different perceptions of time and contracts for chaotic debt negotiations.

Why Russia encourages Greek defiance of the EU
Pavel K. Baev (Brookings) Jul 8, 2015
Russia has encouraged Greek defiance of the EU not because of a historic affinity with Greece, but because of its own issues with Europe.

Syriza’s German Fixation?
Nikolaos Papadogiannis (Project Syndicate) Jul 8, 2015
The Greek people have spoken, decisively rejecting their creditors’ latest bailout terms in the recent referendum. With anti-German discourse on the rise in Greece, including among some elements of the ruling Syriza party, it is difficult to imagine how Greece’s government will reach a “dignified compromise” with its creditors.

Modernizing the IMF
Harold James and Domenico Lombardi (Project Syndicate) Jul 8, 2015
If the IMF is to remain relevant at a time of rapid economic transformation, it must adapt. By adding the Chinese renminbi to the basket of currencies that determines the value of its reserve asset, the Special Drawing Right, the IMF would demonstrate its willingness and ability to do just that.

Beijing Shifts into Higher Gear: Assessing the Macro and Market Impact of the Stock Market's Fall
Charles Collyns, Sonja Gibbs, Jean-Charles Sambor, Feng Guo, Emre Tiftik, Weiwei Chen and Fiona Nguyen (IIF) Jul 8, 2015
Stock market bubbles rarely deflate gradually. In our last China Spotlight, we focused on the drivers of the rally and the ongoing selloff. This piece covers recent policy actions to support the market and their potential consequences, the risk of a systemic financial crisis and the impact on the macro outlook. We acknowledge the risks that the equity market might continue to sell off in the short term despite aggressive policy moves, but risks of a broad-based financial crisis are low and the overall macro impact should be contained.

Europe will pay the price for Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) Jul 9, 2015
The rest of the EU should take no pleasure in Tsipras’s discomfort.

This crisis is not Greece’s alone Financial Times Subscription Required
Norbert Röttgen (FT) Jul 9, 2015
Germany and other EU members must see the problem in European terms.

Eurozone market calm clouds ‘Grexit’ risks Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Jul 9, 2015
Beijing’s inability to stifle rout provides grim counsel for ECB.

China’s Stock Crash Raises New Fears New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Jul 9, 2015
The government should be trying to strengthen the foundations of its economy and financial system.

To Each Age Its Inequality New York Times Subscription Required
Ian Morris (NYT) Jul 9, 2015
We can find deep insights on this issue by looking all the way back to the end of the last Ice Age, 15,000 years ago.

The Lesson Greece’s Lenders Forgot Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
John B. Taylor (WSJ) Jul 9, 2015
To avoid bailouts and foster stability, the IMF used to refuse loans to countries with unsustainable public debt. It worked, until Greece got an exemption.

Greece is a turning point for the E.U.
Anne Applebaum (WP) Jul 9, 2015
The crisis has shown what the Eurozone must become.

TPP Countries Gear Up for High Stakes Ministerial Meeting
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 25 Jul 9, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries are gearing up for a highly-awaited ministerial meeting at the end of July, in a gathering that many officials predict could bring the talks to a close.

EU Parliament Adopts TTIP Resolution, ISDS Compromise Language
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 25 Jul 9, 2015
EU parliamentarians adopted a series of recommendations regarding how the European Commission should approach the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on Wednesday afternoon, just weeks after a previous attempt to vote on the resolution was aborted.

UNCTAD: Higher Foreign Investment Growth Expected in 2015
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 25 Jul 9, 2015
Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are set to see a rebound this year and the two following, a new UN report has said, after a general decline of investment globally in 2014.

Hold Your Nose and Offer Greece Debt Relief Conditioned on Reform
Paolo Mauro (PIIE) Jul 9, 2015
The ominous rise in debt-to-GDP ratios in Greece since 2010, and in the advanced economies after the global crisis of 2008–09, has rekindled interest in the historical experience of large samples of countries.

Growth Slows in Emerging Markets, Picks Up in Advanced Economies
IMF Survey Jul 9, 2015
Moderate growth continues, with global growth forecast to be slightly down for 2015, reflecting an unexpected setback to economic activity in the first quarter of 2015, mostly in North America, says the IMF’s latest WEO Update.

Targeted Debt Relief: Humanitarian Action Plan for Greece
Guy Pfeffermann (Globalist) Jul 9, 2015
A Social Solidarity Program focused on Greece's poor is a deal Germany may suggest.

China's Casino Moment
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Jul 9, 2015
Will the trouble with China's stock market cause contagion in emerging markets far away?

Germany and France: Stick Together on Greece
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Jul 9, 2015
How will the end game on Greece's proposals play out?

Winning the War on World Poverty
Bloomberg View Jul 9, 2015
This is an age of remarkable progress.

Angel Investing, Government-Style
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2015
How the 'entrepreneurial state' can help startups succeed.

Africa Should Lure Bangladesh's Garment Industry
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2015
Low-paying jobs are the first step to higher wages and more development.

5 Reasons China Matters
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2015
Market rout could be far more disruptive than the Greek crisis.

China Shows How to Destroy a Market
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2015
Suspending share sales won't help.

Greece Is Merkel's Failure Too
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2015
Greece's creditors blew their chance to collect 70 percent of what they were owed.

China's Illness Is Contagious for Asia
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2015
The region wants to know if Beijing has a crisis strategy.

Stock Slide Ruins China's Illusion of Control
Noah Feldman (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2015
Public learns the hard way that the president can't guarantee market success.

What Greece Can Expect
Carmen M. Reinhart (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2015
History suggests leaving the euro would bring deep and lasting trauma.

Europe’s Greek Failure
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Jul 9, 2015
Narratives matter, especially when they are intertwined with hard interests. As Greece and its creditors court catastrophe, we are getting a clear picture of how conflicting narratives can lead to a lose-lose result.

Russia’s War on Ukraine’s Economy
Anders Åslund (Project Syndicate) Jul 9, 2015
Ukraine’s primary economic problems are not homegrown but the result of Russian aggression. The international community, with the EU in the lead, must provide substantial humanitarian assistance and help stabilize the country's economy.

A Strategic Rallying Cry for Europe
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Jul 9, 2015
The EU’s move to create a new security strategy could not be more important. Not only will it help Europe to address the security challenges that it faces; it also has the potential to give the EU the sense of purpose that it so badly needs.

The U.S. Must Save Greece
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Time) Jul 9, 2015
If Greece continues with austerity, it would be depression without end.

Lessons for Greece: Forcible currency conversions from 1982 to 2015
Carmen M Reinhart (VoxEU) Jul 9, 2015
Contrary to the intent of the designers of what was to be an irreversible currency union, Greece may well exit the Eurozone. This column argues that default does not inevitably trigger the introduction of a new currency (or the re-activation of an old one). However, if ‘de-euroisation’ is the end game, then a forcible (or compulsory) currency conversion is likely to be a central part of that process, along with more broad-based capital controls.

What’s Giving the World Oil Market the Jitters Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Daniel Yergin (WSJ) Jul 10, 2015
Topping the list are Greece, Iran, China—and, strange as it may seem, the U.S.

Has Tsipras Delivered?
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Jul 10, 2015
The French bureaucracy's fingerprints are all over Greece's new proposal. Growth remains an afterthought

Tsipras: A Turnaround Artist?
Denis MacShane (Globalist) Jul 10, 2015
The Greek prime minister's U-turn shows politics dominates economics.

The European Project Reimagined
André Reichel (Globalist) Jul 10, 2015
Rethinking "ever closer union," based on a eurozone core.

France Takes Greece's Side Against Germany
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Jul 10, 2015
Does Berlin still care about its alliance with Paris?

Chile's Soccer Victory Won't Bring Back Its Mojo
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Jul 10, 2015
Latin America's wealthiest nation should rediscover the centrism that made it great.

Is Alexis Tsipras Brilliant or Just Lucky?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 10, 2015
Greek prime minister's political maneuvering has been dazzling, but the biggest challenge is ahead.

Tsipras Wants Money to Forget Democracy
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jul 10, 2015
Greece's new offer is like the deal voters rejected -- except for the size of the bailout.

Would You Lend Greece $60 Billion?
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jul 10, 2015
If Europe were a bank, it would cut its losses.

The Limits of Chinese Soft Power
Joseph S. Nye (Project Syndicate) Jul 10, 2015
China has been making major efforts to increase its ability to influence others without force or coercion. But as long as the government fans the flames of nationalism and holds tight the reins of party control, China's soft power will remain limited.

Plugging the Leaks in Africa’s Economies
Abdul Tejan-Cole (Project Syndicate) Jul 10, 2015
Africa is usually perceived as a net beneficiary of the global financial system, with aid and investment flowing to the continent from richer parts of the world, but this is simply not true. Illicit capital flight is draining Africa dry – having cost the continent about one trillion dollars over the last 50 years.

The Age of Megaprojects
Nancy Alexander (Project Syndicate) Jul 10, 2015
Spending on megaprojects already amounts to some $6-9 trillion a year, roughly 8% of global GDP, making them “biggest investment boom in human history, and that number is expected to grow. But unless the explosion in megaprojects is carefully managed, the effort is likely to be counterproductive and unsustainable.

French comeback exposes eurozone rift Financial Times Subscription Required
Daniela Schwarzer (FT) Jul 11, 2015
Unresolved tensions remain between France and Germany.

Greece needs Tsipras the statesman Financial Times Subscription Required
Aristides Hatzis (FT) Jul 11, 2015
The extremists within Syriza must be sidelined.

Journey of a towel Economist Subscription Required
Economist Jul 11, 2015
We trace the steps of an Indian export, starting with a seed in an Indian cotton field and ending with a towel in an American store

Greece: The way ahead Economist Subscription Required
Economist Jul 11, 2015
A deal between Greece and its creditors would be best. But if there has to be a Grexit, here is how to do it

Stocks in China: China embraces the markets Economist Subscription Required
Economist Jul 11, 2015
A panicked response to tumbling stocks casts doubt on the pace of reform.

Quantitative macro models of wealth inequality: A survey
Mariacristina De Nardi (VoxEU) Jul 11, 2015
Wealth inequality is back in the spotlight, but its determinants and the saving behaviour generating it are less clear. This column discusses the mechanisms in dynamic quantitative macro models that give rise to wealth inequality. Different mechanisms give rise to similar observed wealth concentrations, but have very different policy implications. A combination of better empirical analysis and richer models is needed to guide policy.

Down and Out in Athens and Brussels
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Jul 11, 2015
In the next several days, decisions taken by Europe on the Greek crisis – particularly whether to reverse the shutdown of the country's banking sector and embrace deep debt relief – will determine Greece's economic fate. Wittingly or not, these decisions will determine the EU’s fate as well.

The economic traps to avoid Financial Times Subscription Required
Lawrence Summers (FT) Jul 12, 2015
Clear-eyed, bold action is what the world requires if the financial drama is to subside.

Digital revolution liberating Latin America Financial Times Subscription Required
Luis Alberto Moreno (FT) Jul 12, 2015
Region harnesses technology to modernise and improve quality of life

Devolution throws up citizenship challenge Financial Times Subscription Required
Vernon Bogdanor (FT) Jul 12, 2015
The welfare state was founded so benefits are distributed on need, not geography.

Mexico: the big oil sell off Financial Times Subscription Required
Jude Webber, Christopher Adams and Ed Crooks (FT) Jul 12, 2015
Parts of the hydrocarbons industry are to be sold off to private investors. But at what cost?

It’s Not Just Debt: Government Spending and Easy Money Fuel the Greek Crisis
Frank Shostak (Mises Daily) Jul 13, 2015
The Greek government continues to negotiate with international creditors following its recent default on its 1.6 billion euro loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Regulatory Rollback Is Wrong for Financial Markets Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Antonio Wiss (WSJ) Jul 12, 2015
Complaints about illiquidity are prompting talk about reforms that are simplistic and even dangerous.

The danger of China’s crash
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Jul 12, 2015
The stock collapse could cause Communist leaders to lose their appetite for overhauling the economy.

Europe's False Hope Moment?
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Jul 12, 2015
Even if there is a deal with Greece it may very well not last.

Failing on Inflation, Japan Fudges the Numbers
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 12, 2015
QE hasn't worked, but the Bank of Japan is pretending otherwise.

Two Scary Charts About China
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Jul 12, 2015
Chinese companies keep piling on debt, and foreign banks are exposed.

India still needs to enter the market for reform
Alok Sheel (EAF) Jul 12, 2015
There appears to be growing euphoria that it is India’s ‘manifest destiny’ to overtake China and become the fastest growing major economy and a major world power. But unless India successfully introduces productivity reforms and opens its markets, this ‘destiny’ will remain a pipe dream.

Service labour market: The engine of growth and inequality
Alexandra Lopez-Cermeño (VoxEU) Jul 12, 2015
Economic historians tend to explain US geographical development gaps in terms of industrialisation. But by the end of the 20th century, the richest counties had become specialised in services, rather than in manufacturing. This column evaluates how the service economy triggered this evident contrast between the urban and rural US. Market size is causes localisation of non-agricultural activity, with the effect being stronger for services, especially knowledge services. Local policymakers can thus foster growth by attracting high-skilled workers to a region, with the multiplier effect eventually increasing the local market.

Three unedifying lessons of Greek deal Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Sandbu (FT) Jul 13, 2015
Gasp at hubris of EU leaders who think they can overrule domestic politics.

Greece’s creditors demolish euro project Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Jul 13, 2015
Stripped of ambitions for a political and economic union, the bloc changes into a utilitarian project.

China stock bust good for global markets Financial Times Subscription Required
Trevor Greetham (FT) Jul 13, 2015
Liquidity-driven boom was always built on shaky ground.

EU: Taxing times for multinationals Financial Times Subscription Required
Christian Oliver (FT) Jul 13, 2015
Test case rulings will cut to the heart of corporations’ arrangements and could lead to fines worth billions.

Deal on Greek Debt Crisis Exposes Europe's Deepening Fissures New York Times Subscription Required
Steven Erlanger (NYT) Jul 13, 2015
In the name of preserving European solidarity, the ultimatum put to Athens over the weekend required something close to the surrender of the nation's sovereignty.

The Eurozone's Damaging Deal for Greece New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Jul 13, 2015
The agreement doesn't resolve the country's debt crisis or its moribund economy.

The Greek Deal Poses Dangers for Greece, and for Europe New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Jul 13, 2015
Germany’s conditions put Greece’s stability at risk and could tear at the eurozone’s fabric.

The Healthy Turn From Aid to Investment Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Grete Faremo (WSJ) Jul 13, 2015
Africa received $42 billion in development assistance in 2013, well behind foreign direct investment: $57 billion.

The Price of Greek Rejection Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Jul 13, 2015
The latest deal avoids a crisis but doesn’t do enough for growth.

Greece vs European federalism
Tomas Hirst (Piera) Jul 13, 2015
The Greek crisis could put an end to the dream of the United States of Europe...for now.

Greece and Europe reach a deal after all
Douglas J. Elliott (Brookings) Jul 13, 2015
How did Greece end up with a deal that appears on the surface to be worse than the one rejected so recently?

Europe's Insane Deal With Greece
Eric Beinhocker (Bloomberg View) Jul 13, 2015
Latest bailout agreement does nothing to address euro's fundamental flaws.

Why Does Europe Still Want Greece?
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Jul 13, 2015
Costs may be more than euro-zone members want to bear.

Greece Should Just Quit
Bloomberg View Jul 13, 2015
A deal imposed under duress and bitterly resented by most Greeks won't succeed.

Europe Owns This Disaster
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Jul 13, 2015
Forced deal solves nothing and gravely undermines the EU.

Hong Kong, China's Real Stock Market, Remains Calm
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 13, 2015
There's only one Chinese city where investors don't have to worry about government interference.

Want the Euro? Be More Like the Germans
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jul 13, 2015
The common currency has a low tolerance for democracy's wilder extremes.

Hard-Won Greek Deal Was the Easy Part
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 13, 2015
Making the agreement stick is fraught with peril.

Greece Blinks
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jul 13, 2015
The only voice that matters in Europe speaks from Berlin, not Paris.

A Plunge Protection Team for China's Markets?
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Jul 13, 2015
China may do no better at propping up markets than the U.S.

Algorithms Had Themselves a Treasury Flash Crash
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Jul 13, 2015
Algorithms were selling to other algorithms -- sometimes their algorithmic colleagues.

The Land Battle for Sustainable Development
Monique Barbut, Christiana Figueres and Achim Steiner (Project Syndicate) Jul 13, 2015
As officials gather in Addis Ababa this week to identify the best ways to secure the resources needed to maintain the health of our planet and boost its inhabitants’ wellbeing, they would be wise to look down. Improved land management holds huge, largely untapped potential in the effort to achieve sustainable development.

Saving Greece, Saving Europe
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Jul 13, 2015
Germany wants Greece to choose between economic collapse and leaving the eurozone. Both options would mean economic disaster; the first, if not both, would be politically disastrous as well.

Greece for Grownups
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Jul 13, 2015
While no one knows how the Greek economic tragedy will actually end, one thing is certain: Greece’s creditors will have to write off a large proportion of their loans to the country. Their refusal to recognize this reality has increased the losses they will suffer.

Africa’s Opportunity in Addis
Macky Sall (Project Syndicate) Jul 13, 2015
For most African countries, the key challenge nowadays is structural economic transformation: Simply put, their economies must be able to create enough good jobs to employ growing populations. This week’s Third International Conference on Financing for Development represents a crucial step toward achieving that goal.

Winning the Fight For Global Education
Julia Gillard (Project Syndicate) Jul 13, 2015
In 2000, when the world adopted the Millennium Development Goals, a promise was made: education is a universal right that will be upheld for every child. Last week’s Oslo Summit on Education for Development confirmed the growing consensus within the global education community about what must be done to honor that pledge.

Euro area money market funds: turning the corner?
Heike Mai (DB Research) Jul 13, 2015
Euro area money market funds have returned to growth, according to the latest ECB data. By March 2015, they managed EUR 1,032 bn in assets, up by EUR 120 bn from a year earlier. A similar surge in assets was last seen before the financial crisis, which marked the beginning of a prolonged decline. Amazingly, the upward trend in assets occurred while money market yields hit record lows, especially for the euro. So what is really behind MMF asset growth?

Beijing will slip if it strains to catch a bubble Financial Times Subscription Required
Giles Wilkes (FT) Jul 14, 2015
Setting policy according to the whims of the stock market is like steering an oil tanker after a school of dolphins.

Imperial ambitions push Europe to limits Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) Jul 14, 2015
Ukraine crisis tests credibility of implied promises of political, economic and military support.

Greece sets the EU a crisis stress test Financial Times Subscription Required
Tony Barber (FT) Jul 14, 2015
The choice is between the defence of founding principles and acceptance of a need to change direction.

China share shock has lasting impact Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Jul 14, 2015
Falling renminbi puts pressure on exporters to the country.

Investors in China not allowed to jump Financial Times Subscription Required
Tom Mitchell (FT) Jul 14, 2015
In a crisis, shares are controlled by the Chinese Communist party.

Another Greek Can-Kicking Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Holman W. Jenkins (WSJ) Jul 14, 2015
There won’t be light at the tunnel’s end until Germany kicks itself out of the eurozone.

The Empire Strikes Back

Germany and Greece: In Victory, Magnanimity?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Jul 14, 2015
The agreement between Greece and its international creditors announced on Monday represents a predictable capitulation by the Greek government from a position advanced for weeks by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Faced with the dire repercussions of an exit from euro area institutions—including a collapse of its banking system and a broader economic disaster—Tsipras accepted harsher terms than those he had asked voters to reject on July 5.

Foreign Capital Returns to Brazil. Will Growth Follow?
Georgina Hurst (II) Jul 14, 2015
As Brazil battles a recession under President Dilma Rousseff’s leadership, many are hoping for an economic boost from foreign investors.

Germany Charts a Steady Course
IMF Survey Jul 14, 2015
The economic outlook appears promising for Germany, which is reaping the benefits of euro depreciation and lower energy prices, according to the latest IMF economic assessment.

Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices
IMF Survey Jul 14, 2015
While lower oil prices can mean significant losses in revenue for some oil exporting countries, consumers should be paying less for fuel and have more money to spend. IMF’s Aasim Husain says the higher spending will be good for global growth.

Why Single Out China?
Kenneth S. Courtis (Globalist) Jul 14, 2015
Governments responding to market turmoil happens everywhere.

Europe Needs to Cross Its Red Lines on Greece
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 14, 2015
Deal will fail without flexibility from creditors.

China's Economic Troubles Start to Spread
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 14, 2015
The world's second-biggest economy could cause a global recession.

China's Tamed Stock Market Might Bite Its Economy
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 14, 2015
Controlling market forces by diktat doesn't always work.

Greece and Europe: An Unhealthy Affair
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jul 14, 2015
When you're stuck in a bad relationship, it's time to move on.

Today’s Dark Lords of Finance
Alexander Friedman (Project Syndicate) Jul 14, 2015
The unprecedented period of coordinated loose monetary policy since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008 could have large unintended consequences. In particular, institutional investors, such as pension funds, have responded to near-zero interest rates by making riskier investments – leaving them dangerously exposed.

China’s Brittle Development Model
Shashi Tharoor (Project Syndicate) Jul 14, 2015
After decades of broad consensus that India’s democratic governance model was superior, many now are claiming that China's authoritarian model is actually more conducive to development. They are wrong.

Getting Personal With the Greek Crisis
Lucy P. Marcus and Stefan Wolff (Project Syndicate) Jul 14, 2015
Today’s decision-makers are supposed to embrace big data, relentlessly pursue quantitative metrics, and adhere to the optimal course of action that these powerful tools supposedly indicate. Yet if there is one thing that the Greek crisis has made clear, it is the importance of the human factor in negotiations.
George Friedman (Stratfor) Jul 14, 2015
A desperate battle was fought last week. It pitted Germany and Greece against each other.

The Agreekment That Could Break Europe Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Harris Mylonas (FA) Jul 14, 2015
Euroskeptics, eurocritics, and life after the bailout.

Bullish on Spain Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Omar G. Encarnación (FA) Jul 14, 2015
Why the country is faring better than Greece.

A generous deal that avoids austerity Financial Times Subscription Required
Lars Feld (FT) Jul 15, 2015
Without these funds, the Greek economy would break down.

One final fling for France and Germany Financial Times Subscription Required
François Heisbourg (FT) Jul 15, 2015
The faultlines on Greece are set to deepen and widen.

Rates must rise to avert next crisis Financial Times Subscription Required
Scott Minerd (FT) Jul 15, 2015
Capital is being driven into increasingly speculative investments.

Germany's Destructive Anger New York Times Subscription Required
Jacob Soll (NYT) Jul 15, 2015
If it is going to lead Europe, it can't act as if it's simply a victim.

Productivity mysteriously goes bust
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Jul 15, 2015
The worldwide slowdown is baffling and disappointing.

Brazil's Perverse Development Bank Distortions Aggravate Economic Slump
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Jul 15, 2015
Brazil's inordinately high interest rates have long been a cause of much perplexity. Following the economic stabilization of the mid-1990s, and the adherence to inflation targeting, fiscal responsibility, and floating exchange rates in the 2000s, most people expected Brazilian interest rates to converge to emerging-market benchmarks by the end of the decade.

Professor Blanchard Writes a Greek Tragedy
Ashoka Mody (Pieria) Jul 15, 2015
Olivier Blanchard has, with his customary clarity and candor, addressed criticisms of the IMF’s role in Greece’s financial rescue. His blog post deserves careful reading and consideration.

Markets Aren't Buying China's Rosy GDP Claims
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 15, 2015
Beijing can't fool investors who are expecting a slowdown.

Greece's Imaginary Numbers
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jul 15, 2015
What works in mathematics will doom efforts to rescue Greece.

Leaving Euro Is Better Than Eternal Greek Crisis
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Jul 15, 2015
It wouldn't be paradise, but the torture would end.

Angus Deaton on Rwanda
Agnes Binagwaho (Boston Review) Jul 15, 2015
Taking issue with Angus Deaton's charge in our forum on effective altruism that large aid flows to Africa sometimes save lives while bolstering dictators.

The Mirage of the Financial Singularity
Robert J. Shiller (Project Syndicate) Jul 15, 2015
Many economists and financial-market observers seem to believe that we are approaching the point when even Warren Buffett would be better off leaving all investment decisions to a computer program. How, then, would they explain the recent plunge in China's stock market?

Dollar Diplomacy in Tehran Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Eric Lorber and Elizabeth Rosenberg (FA) Jul 15, 2015
How promoting business in Iran boosts the nuclear agreement.

From Drift to Deals: Advancing the WTO Agenda Adobe Acrobat Required
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Euijin Jung, Sean Miner, Tyler Moran and Jeffrey J. Schott (PIIE) Jul 15, 2015
The World Trade Organization (WTO) needs a grand bargain to pursue 21st century pacts that keep policymakers, business leaders, and the public engaged, while answering the legitimate demands of developing members to reduce longstanding distortions to farm trade and manufactures.

Answer to Greek question Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) Jul 16, 2015
The 1989 blueprint for the euro emphasised responsibility and solidarity would sit side by side.

Greece needs Europe’s best and brightest Financial Times Subscription Required
Hélène Rey (FT) Jul 16, 2015
Enacting planned reforms speedily would be a tall order without help.

Euro project still has mountains to climb Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Jul 16, 2015
Lessons that can be learnt from Greece’s flirtation with euro exit.

The Greek Solution Solved Nothing Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) Jul 16, 2015
Three essential problems remain, and leaving the eurozone may be the answer.

Prospects Dim for WTO Work Programme as July Deadline Approaches
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 26 Jul 16, 2015
The prospects for reaching a Doha Round "work programme" by the end of this month are growing increasingly dim, WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo told members last week.

BRICS Leaders Eye Increased Coordination at Russia Summit
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 26 Jul 16, 2015
Leaders from the BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – confirmed plans to begin financing infrastructure projects through their new development bank by early 2016, while also releasing an "economic partnership strategy" document to be reviewed every five years.

What’s Next for China’s Market After Crash?
Allen Cheng (II) Jul 16, 2015
The government’s aggressive measures to stop a panic sell-off have steadied stocks but left big questions over outlook.

One Thing Europe Got Right in Greece's Crisis
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jul 16, 2015
Even if Greece crashes, the currency will hold strong.

Greece: France or Germany — Who Really Dunnit?
Shumpei Takemori (Globalist) Jul 16, 2015
Germans are getting a bum wrap over the Greek crisis. France's role is more problematic.

Greece's Broad Pro-European Alliance
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Jul 16, 2015
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is now at the mercy of the pro-European opposition.

The scariest aspect of China’s recent market falls is what could be left to come
Jamie Lowry (Pieria) Jul 16, 2015
There's plenty of scope for a lot more pain in China.

Reply to Dr. Agnes Binagwaho
Angus Deaton (Boston Review) Jul 16, 2015
Dr. Agnes Binagwaho, firing off in all directions, misses her target.

Did Greece Surrender?
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Jul 16, 2015
Two weeks ago, Greeks voted down an offer that they thought would trap them in austerity. Now the parliament has accepted a package that is at least as severe.

The Contradictions of China’s Communist Capitalism
Pranab Bardhan (Project Syndicate) Jul 16, 2015
The dizzying plunge in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is testing China’s Communist rulers. As the realization sinks in that Chinese stock prices can decline, just as they have risen, the government is taking desperate, if clumsy, measures to control the free fall.

Minimum Wage or Living Income?
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Jul 16, 2015
As robots increasingly replace human labor, humans will need incomes to replace wages from work. That is why the idea of an unconditional basic income, long advocated by free-market and socialist thinkers alike, is a measure whose time has come.

Asia’s View of the Greek Crisis
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) Jul 16, 2015
Asians have been watching the Greek debt crisis unfold with a mixture of envy and schadenfreude. When they experienced their own financial crisis in 1997, they were offered far less external aid and far harsher conditions to receive it, though they recovered much more strongly.

Bottling the Sun
Steven Charles Cowley (Project Syndicate) Jul 16, 2015
Even if world leaders reach an agreement at the UN climate conference in December to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions substantially by 2050, the question of how to meet a booming global population’s insatiable appetite for energy in the longer term will remain. One of the most promising options is nuclear fusion.

How the IMF punctured the insane dreamworld of eurozone elites
Jeff Spross (The Week) Jul 16, 2015
It was the latest dramatic turn in the ongoing drama of the Greek economic crisis, made all the more poignant by the 11th-hour arrival of what many might consider the most unlikely defender imaginable: the International Monetary Fund.

Does Europe Have a Future?
Stephen M. Walt (FP) Jul 16, 2015
Here’s what I told the House Foreign Affairs Committee. It’s not encouraging.

Why China’s stock market bubble was always bound to burst
Orville Schell (Guardian) Jul 16, 2015
The sudden collapse of the nation’s share boom left tens of millions of investors in shock. But a massive government intervention to prop up the market has laid bare the contradictions of a capitalist China

They Told You So: Economists Were Right to Doubt the Euro New York Times Subscription Required
N. Gregory Mankiw (NYT) Jul 17, 2015
The continuing saga of Greece and its creditors is more tragic than comic.

Debt Isn’t Killing Greece. Its Leaders Are Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Holger Schmieding (WSJ) Jul 17, 2015
The country was poised for 3% growth before Syriza took power. More debt relief would reward loony policies.

Germany, Not Greece, Should Exit the Euro
Ashoka Mody (Bloomberg View) Jul 17, 2015
The return of the deutsche mark would benefit everyone.

Is Tsipras the New Lula?
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Jul 17, 2015
It is now possible that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will become to his country what South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were to theirs: a man of the left who embraces fiscal responsibility and freer markets. But Greece’s creditors must open their eyes, too.

China’s BRICS Balancing Act
Minghao Zhao (Project Syndicate) Jul 17, 2015
While Russia hosted the most recent annual BRICS summit, it is China that dominates the grouping, which has already proved to be a force multiplier for Chinese diplomacy. But, if China is to avoid resistance from its BRICS partners, its leaders must be prudent, not pushy.

IMF Staff Paper: Linkages Between Labor Market Institutions and Inequality
IMF Survey Jul 17, 2015
In a continuation of their ongoing work on inequality, IMF economists have found a decline in unionization and the erosion of minimum wages to be associated with rising inequality in advanced economies. But these findings are not necessarily a blanket recommendation for higher unionization and minimum wages.

The relation between stock and currency returns
Gino Cenedese, Richard Payne, Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente (VoxEU) Jul 17, 2015
Various theories suggest that exchange rate fluctuations and stock returns are linked. In this column, the authors find little evidence of a relationship between the two. Thus, a simple trading strategy that invests in countries with the highest expected equity returns and shorts those with the lowest generates substantial risk-adjusted returns.

The travels and travails of the macro tourist
Barry Ritholtz (WP) Jul 18, 2015
This morning, we look at travels and travails of the macro tourist.

The euro zone: Pain without end Economist Subscription Required
Economist Jul 18, 2015
A deal between Greece and Europe averts one disaster, and hastens the next.

Variable geometry bites back: Schäuble’s motives
Fabio Ghironi (VoxEU) Jul 18, 2015
Success of the German-inspired solution for the latest Greek crisis is far from assured. If it fails, the Eurozone may be changed forever. This column argues that the failure would lead to an outcome that has been favoured for decades by Germany’s Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble. Perhaps the package the Eurozone agreed is just a backdoor way of getting to the ‘variable geometry’ and monetary unification for the core that the Maastricht criteria had failed to achieve.

Preventing the new mediocre from becoming the new reality: The role of fiscal policy
Bernardin Akitoby, Sanjeev Gupta and Abdelhak Senhadji (VoxEU) Jul 18, 2015
There has been a heated debate about the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a countercyclical tool but little evidence on how it can support growth. This column shows that fiscal policy can lift medium- and long-term growth in both advanced and developing economies. But all fiscal reforms are not equal in their growth dividend. Successful reforms are often part of a broader reform package and can balance the growth-equity trade-off.

‘The Global Minotaur’, by Yanis Varoufakis Financial Times Subscription Required
Giles Wilkes (FT) Jul 19, 2015
Insights from the most irritating man in the room.

Grexit remains the likely outcome Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Jul 19, 2015
Unless the economy behaves very differently than in the past, it will be trapped in a vicious circle.

Gamblers on Chinese stocks abandon their fortune to fate Financial Times Subscription Required
Lawrence Osborne (FT) Jul 19, 2015
When a table’s numbers shift, the gamblers hare off to a luckier one.

Germany should heed how it helped eastern Europe Financial Times Subscription Required
Stefan Wagstyl (FT) Jul 19, 2015
Greece and its creditors need to build public support for reforms.

Fannie and Freddie are Back, Bigger and Badder Than Ever New York Times Subscription Required
Bethany McLean (NYT) Jul 19, 2015
After nearly bringing down the economy in 2008, how is it possible that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still around?

As Beijing Becomes a Supercity, the Rapid Growth Brings Pains New York Times Subscription Required
Ian Johnson (NYT) Jul 19, 2015
The new megalopolis, Jing-Jin-Ji, is to cover ground the size of Kansas and have a population about six times larger than the New York metropolitan area.

Europe’s Impossible Dream
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jul 19, 2015
How fantasy economics led to disaster.

No, Puerto Rico is not our Greece
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Jul 19, 2015
Greece’s decline destabilizes the E.U., but the territory’s problem do not threaten U.S. well-being

Ethiopia: Land of Edible Napkins
Guy Pfeffermann (Globalist) Jul 19, 2015
Ethiopia has an amazing ability to get things done, quite unusual in low-income countries.

A Less Perfect Union Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Kathleen R. McNamara (FA) Jul 19, 2015
Europe after the Greek debt crisis.

Latvian Lessons Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Anders Paalzow (FA) Jul 19, 2015
Here's how Riga overcame its own economic crisis---and what that says about Greece.

Love and hate between Greece and the west Financial Times Subscription Required
Tony Barber (FT) Jul 20, 2015
Creditors have tainted the nation’s relations with the rest of Europe.

Markets afflicted by magical thinking Financial Times Subscription Required
James Grant (FT) Jul 20, 2015
Prices should be discovered in the market, not administered by a government.

Asset managers need some tough reforms Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Jul 20, 2015
The need to identify risks in the system has intensified.

Gamblers on Chinese stocks abandon their fortune to fate Financial Times Subscription Required
Lawrence Osborne (FT) Jul 20, 2015
When a table’s numbers shift, the gamblers hare off to a luckier one.

Finland Shows Why Many Europeans Think Americans Are Wrong About the Euro New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Jul 20, 2015
The Finnish economy is struggling, but the finance minister says you have to look at the long run to evaluate the effect of the euro.

Russia’s Coming Regime Change New York Times Subscription Required
Andrei V. Kozyrev (NYT) Jul 20, 2015
The Russian people will rise up. But for now, the West must stand firm and resist Putin’s intimidation.

FT Investigation: The strange tale of ticker ‘566’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Miles Johnson, Lucy Hornby and Cynthia O’Murchu (FT) Jul 20, 2015
How an obscure toy maker was transformed into Hanergy Thin Film, a solar group whose value touched $40bn before a dramatic fall back to earth.

Tsipras By the Numbers
Denis MacShane (Globalist) Jul 20, 2015
Why the numbers 36, 60 and 80 are key to the Greek prime minister's triumph over infantile leftism and conservative economism.

What Europe Should Learn From Asia's Crisis
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 20, 2015
The answer isn't austerity, it's fast and bold reform.

Will the World Ever Boom Again?
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 20, 2015
Unless there's another China out there, maybe not.

Europe’s Vindictive Privatization Plan for Greece
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Jul 20, 2015
Eurozone leaders are demanding that Greek public assets be transferred to a Treuhand-like fund – a fire-sale vehicle similar to the one used after the fall of the Berlin Wall to privatize all of the vanishing East German state’s public property. The plan should be a stigma on Europe’s conscience; worse, it is a wasted opportunity.

Germany, Greece, and the Future of Europe
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Jul 20, 2015
Germany’s demands have brought Greece to the point of near-collapse, with potentially disastrous consequences for Greece, Europe, and Germany’s global reputation. Maintaining a peaceful and prosperous Europe is Germany’s most vital responsibility; but it is surely its most vital national interest as well.

How important are terms-of-trade shocks?
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martín Uribe (VoxEU) Jul 20, 2015
In the past few years, the world has witnessed large swings in world relative prices, from oil to metals to food prices. This column examines how important these terms-of-trade shocks are in explaining GDP fluctuations. Using structural vector autoregression analysis it shows that terms-of-trade shocks account for no more than 10% of business-cycle fluctuations in the majority of poor and emerging countries.

Greece should prepare for Grexit and then not do it
Charles Wyplosz (VoxEU) Jul 20, 2015
There is a high likelihood that Grexit will be back on the table. This column argues that Greece can strengthen its negotiating position if it is prepared for exit. Grexit remains a disastrous choice, but it has become the default option for Greece and its creditors. However, preparing for Grexit does not mean leaving the Eurozone. A credible threat point may deliver a better outcome. The purpose of the exercise should be to make Grexit a plausible solution, then not to do it.

Let China’s markets speak truth to power Financial Times Subscription Required
Henry Paulson (FT) Jul 21, 2015
Policymakers must do more to reform underlying structural problems.

Europe’s confusion on German leadership Financial Times Subscription Required
Bill Emmott (FT) Jul 21, 2015
Eurozone is happy to back Berlin when it is wrong and resist it when it is right.

Bank of China aims to spread Asian wings Financial Times Subscription Required
Jennifer Hughes (FT) Jul 21, 2015
Beijing’s infrastructure spending will boost international ambitions.

Investors cannot see through market froth Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Jul 21, 2015
Bubbles will be clearer as central banks start to normalise policy.

The Case for a Tax on Financial Transactions New York Times Subscription Required
Jared Bernstein (NYT) Jul 21, 2015
Senator Bernie Sanders's financial transaction tax would raise revenue and discourage high-frequency trading.

Fifty Years of Debasing Money Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Seth Lipsky (WSJ) Jul 21, 2015
The Coinage Act of 1965 marked the end of silver coins, contrary to what LBJ promised.

This is what economists don’t understand about the euro crisis – or the U.S. dollar
Kathleen McNamara (WP) Jul 21, 2015
What economists get wrong is that single currencies are never the product of debates about optimal economic solutions.

Let Greece leave the eurozone
David Ignatius (WP) Jul 21, 2015
A gentle Grexit might be less painful than the austerity measures included in the bailout plan.

The Growing Gap between Real Wages and Labor Productivity
Robert Z. Lawrence (PIIE) Jul 21, 2015
Since 1970, the real wages of US production workers have stagnated, despite the rapid growth in output per worker. This apparent disconnect between labor productivity and real wages is most dramatic when real output per hour is contrasted with real average hourly wages since 1970.

Greece: Next Stop Russia?
Beat Guldimann (Globalist) Jul 21, 2015
What are the chances of Tsipras and Putin becoming allies?

Greece: Open for Business Again?
Denis MacShane (Globalist) Jul 21, 2015
Don't be fooled: Nothing has been resolved.

A Euro Visionary at the IMF
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jul 21, 2015
Maurice Obstfeld has long been clear-eyed about the single currency's flaws.

At Least Somebody Feels Good About Greece
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Jul 21, 2015
Investors have faith that the euro zone will stick together.

There's Just One Way to Reach 4 Percent Growth
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 21, 2015
Immigration, and a lot more of it.

Greece’s Imperfect Imperative
Lucrezia Reichlin, Elias Papaioannou and Richard Portes (Project Syndicate) Jul 21, 2015
The latest deal between Greece and its creditors is far from perfect, particularly because its emphasis on fiscal targets risks undermining structural reforms. But the deal can – and must – serve as the basis for saving Greece and the eurozone.

Europe’s Civil War
Anne-Marie Slaughter (Project Syndicate) Jul 21, 2015
The recent negotiations over Greece’s debt brought into relief two competing visions of the EU: the flexible, humane, and political union espoused by France, and the legalistic and economy-focused union promoted by Germany. At a time of unprecedented divisions within the Union, which vision will prevail?

China’s Live Stress Test
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng Project Syndicate) Jul 21, 2015
China’s economy has succeeded through trial and error – and the country's recent stock-market collapse should be viewed as part of that process, to be used to drive the next phase of economic reform. One key lesson is that Chinese stock markets remain structurally biased toward state ownership and guidance.

The half-life of happiness
Sebastian Galiani, Paul Gertler and Raimundo Undurraga (VoxEU) Jul 21, 2015
Does material wealth make you happier? Recent literature and public discussion suggests that we believe widely that, in the long term, it doesn’t; especially if you are fairly wealthy and live in the West. But what if you’re poor and live in a developing country? This column presents new evidence that taking material improvements for granted is a common human behaviour that is present even among the extremely poor.

Understanding past and future financial crises
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Maurice Obstfeld (VoxEU) Jul 21, 2015
What explains the different effects of the crisis around the world? This column compares the 2007–09 crisis to earlier episodes of banking, currency, and sovereign debt distress and identifies domestic-credit booms and real currency appreciation as the most significant predictors of future crises, in both advanced and emerging economies. It argues these results could help policymakers determine the need for corrective action before crises hit.

Paris eyes push for ‘eurozone government’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Anne-Sylvaine Chassany (FT) Jul 22, 2015
French leader seeks to unite pro-Europeans two years out from presidential election.

Balkan banks avoid a dose of Greek flu Financial Times Subscription Required
Neil Buckley (FT) Jul 22, 2015
Regulators and financial institutions had time to boost their immune systems against contagion.

Low bond liquidity presents little risk Financial Times Subscription Required
Douglas Hodge (FT) Jul 22, 2015
The main effect will be higher cost of capital.

Let China’s markets speak truth to power Financial Times Subscription Required
Henry Paulson (FT) Jul 22, 2015
Policymakers must do more to reform underlying structural problems.

Which Was Bigger: The Greek or American Bailout? New York Times Subscription Required
Karl Russell (NYT) Jul 22, 2015
Comparison of the Greek and American bailouts and their economic decline and growth since.

The most successful anti-poverty movement in history?
Peter Gregory (OECD Insight) Jul 22, 2015
It is erroneous for the UN to claim that the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) has been “the most successful anti-poverty movement in history”. The extraordinary reduction in the number of people living in extreme poverty over the last 25 years has been caused by market-led economic growth. We must re-cast foreign aid and charity to reflect this reality.

Schäuble: Europe's Last Man Standing
André Reichel (Globalist) Jul 22, 2015
Is Germany's finance minister really anti-European?

Did Putin Sell Out Greece?
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jul 22, 2015
A Greek report feeds a conspiracy theory that he bargained for leeway on Ukraine.

Some Things Only Government Can Do
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 22, 2015
Too bad paying for them is such a problem.

Bank of Japan Only Imagines Inflation
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 22, 2015
Haruhiko Kuroda got ahead of reality, undermining two years of monetary stimulus.

Why the Greek Deal Will Work
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Jul 22, 2015
Most economists and political commentators believe that the latest Greek bailout was little more than an analgesic. It will dull the pain for a while, but the euro’s problems will metastasize, with a dismal prognosis for the single currency and perhaps the EU as a whole. But the conventional wisdom is likely to be proved wrong.

The Best Ways to Fight Extreme Poverty
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Jul 22, 2015
Many of the UN’s proposed development targets for the next 15 years are linked to poverty reduction. But, with some targets able to yield much greater returns than others, world leaders must choose wisely.

Moving on From the Euro
Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke (Project Syndicate) Jul 22, 2015
It has been obvious for some years that the “actually existing EMU” has been a costly failure, not just economically but politically. And yet most economists, even those who were never keen on Europe’s monetary union in the first place, have been reluctant to make the argument that the time has come to abandon a failed experiment.

China’s Patient Investors
Zhang Lei (Project Syndicate) Jul 22, 2015
Chinese markets, like emerging markets everywhere, are volatile, and investors there are usually focused on short-term profits. And yet a long-term approach is not only possible; done properly, it can be fabulously lucrative.

What historical heights can teach us about past living standards
Howard Bodenhorn, Timothy W. Guinnane and Thomas Mroz (VoxEU) Jul 22, 2015
Were living standards during early industrialisation as terrible as we imagine? Robert Fogel, the Nobel prize-winning economic historian, taught us a great deal about studying long-term living standards through looking into people’s height. This column argues that one of Fogel’s early claims turns out to have, at best, a weak foundation. The measured decline of mean height during industrialisation reflects in large part the nature of the data sources, not necessarily changes in the height of the underlying populations. The Industrial Revolution did not necessarily make people shorter.

Bond markets out of kilter with rate reality Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael McKenzie (FT) Jul 23, 2015
Complacency on policy expectations keeps front-end yields low.

China tech expansion in a new phase Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Waters (FT) Jul 23, 2015
Tsinghua’s interest in Micron evokes memories of Japanese chip onslaught of the 1980s.

Do not fight free trade, it enriches nations Financial Times Subscription Required
Antonia Ax:son Johnson and Stefan Persson (FT) Jul 23, 2015
Its record in reducing poverty should be enough to counter critics.

Raising Ex-Im From the Dead Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Jul 23, 2015
Congress should administer last rites to a corporate welfare relic.

TTIP Negotiators Complete Tenth Round, Exchange Revised Services Offers
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 27 Jul 23, 2015
Negotiators for a bilateral EU-US trade and investment deal concluded their tenth round of negotiations last week, exchanging revised services offers and reporting productive discussions on regulatory coherence.

UN Approves New Development Financing Framework at Addis Meet
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 27 Jul 23, 2015
After months of tough preparatory negotiations, UN member states meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia last week agreed to a revised global framework for development finance, aligning flows with a range of economic, social, and environmental priorities.

IMF Exceptional Access and Reform Legislation: Do Not Link the Two Issues
Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Jul 23, 2015
In "The Lessons Greece's Lenders Forgot" (Wall Street Journal, July 10), John Taylor argued that the United States and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) erred in May 2010 by not abiding by the IMF's 2003 framework for exceptional (large scale) access to its financial support. I argued in a letter to the Wall Street Journal that Taylor did not have all of his facts right about the Greek case and about the IMF's framework for exceptional access.

Central Banks and Our Dysfunctional Gold Markets
Marcia Christoff-Kurapovna (Mises Daily) Jul 23, 2015
Many investors still view gold as a safe-haven investment, but there remains much confusion regarding the extent to which the gold market is vulnerable to manipulation through short-term rigged market trades, and long-arm central bank interventions.

Japan: Ramping up Policy Actions for Lasting Economic Change
IMF Survey Jul 23, 2015
Abenomics has lifted Japan out of the doldrums, according to the IMF’s latest assessment of the Asian economy. But, policies need to be reinforced to end the lingering deflationary mindset, raise growth, restore fiscal sustainability, and maintain financial stability without undue reliance on yen depreciation.

Monetary Policies in Advanced Economies: Good for Them, Good for Others
IMF Survey Jul 23, 2015
Seven years after the onset of the Great Recession, economic activity in many advanced economies remains below potential. In the euro area, for example, the output gap—how far output is below where it could be if all productive resources such as labor and capital were being fully utilized—is nearly 2½ percent.

Breaking down the silo: connecting education to world trends
Tracey Burns (OECD Insights) Jul 23, 2015
Did you ever wonder if education has a role to play in stemming the obesity epidemic sweeping across all OECD countries? Or what the impact of increasing urbanisation might be on our schools, families, and communities? Or whether new technologies really are fundamentally changing the way our children think and learn? If so, you’re not alone.

The Failure of Politics: Merkel's Euro Debacle
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Jul 23, 2015
In reality, it was German banks and not Greece that had to be rescued.

Europe and the Consequences of French Weakness
David Marsh (Globalist) Jul 23, 2015
European changes since German reunification 25 years ago represent a double blow for France.

The Economic Potential of The Internet of Things
Irving Wladawsky-Berger (Pieria) Jul 23, 2015
The hype may actually understate the full potential of the Internet of Things

Cheap Money Is Here to Stay
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jul 23, 2015
Central bankers have lost the initiative to markets.

Iranian Oil Could Hurt Russia and the U.S.
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jul 23, 2015
Current oil prices are barely high enough for U.S. frackers and the Russian government.

The Eurozone’s German Problem
Philippe Legrain (Project Syndicate) Jul 23, 2015
It cannot be Greece’s fault that the eurozone economy as a whole – in which it plays a miniscule role – is faring worse seven years after the start of the crisis than Europe did during the Great Depression of the 1930s. In fact, the real problem in the eurozone is not Greece’s debt, but Germany’s beggar-thy-neighbor policies.

Is Uber a Threat to Democracy?
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Jul 23, 2015
Innovative companies like Uber bring huge increases in efficiency, as well as social and regulatory challenges that must be confronted in a way that ensures fairness. The notion that markets alone can manage its transformative impact is pure folly.

The Return of the Ugly German
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) Jul 23, 2015
During the long night of negotiations over Greece on July 12-13, something fundamental to the European Union cracked. Since then, Europeans have lived in a different kind of EU, with Germany’s pursuit of national interest set to provoke conflict with France and Italy.

City scale and productivity in China
John Gibson and Chao Li (VoxEU) Jul 23, 2015
The size of cities in China – and the effects of city size on productivity – are important topics for urban economists. This column argues that the data used in many previous studies of Chinese cities do not stand up to scrutiny because they do not take nearly enough workers into account. More comprehensive data on city employment from China’s 2010 census suggest that there are lots of inefficiently small cities.

China's Global Ambitions, With Loans and Strings Attached New York Times Subscription Required
Clifford Krauss and Keith Bradsher (NYT) Jul 24, 2015
The country has invested billions in Ecuador and elsewhere, using its economic clout to win diplomatic allies and secure natural resources around the world.

Lessons in resillience from rural Greece
Alexis Adams (WP) Jul 24, 2015
Rural Greeks are relying on time-tested techniques to weather the economic storm.

Sovereign Debt Restructuring: The Greek Challenge
Carlos A. Primo Braga (IMD) Jul 24, 2015
Does the past dictate the future?

What Obama Should Say in Africa
Bloomberg View Jul 24, 2015
Greater prosperity will come with more accountable politics.

Fighting Corruption Won’t End Poverty
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Jul 24, 2015
On his recent trip to Latin America, Pope Francis declared that the corrupt deserve to be “tied to a rock and cast into the sea.” Perhaps they do; but that won’t necessarily make their countries more prosperous.

What the Greek and Iranian Deals Are Not
Dominique Moisi (Project Syndicate) Jul 24, 2015
This month’s agreements on the Greek crisis and Iran’s nuclear program are undoubtedly important achievements. But the comparisons that have accompanied both deals have tended toward hyperbole, impeding rational discussion of their implications for Europe, the Middle East, and the prospects for international diplomacy.

Depression’s Advocates
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Jul 24, 2015
When the Greek debt crisis erupted in 2010, it seemed that the obvious lessons of history implied a straightforward path to resolution. Instead, eurozone policymakers insisted on repeating the mistakes of the 1930s, and today they are doubling down on them.

Greece: Strophe and Antistrophe
Avinash D. Persaud (PIIE) Jul 25, 2015
A Greek default in 2010 would have avoided Greece's fiscal troubles cascading into an existential moment for the European Union. But Germany and France, fearing damage to their banks, rejected that option, and sacrificed Greece's economic sustainability for European financial stability.

Foreign-owned firms in the technology take-off in China
Sourafel Girma, Yundan Gong, Holger Görg, Sandra Lancheros and Christiane Krieger-Boden (VoxEU) Jul 24, 2015
In the run-up to WTO accession in 2001, China considerably liberalised its policy towards FDI. This column argues that foreign acquisitions contributed significantly to raising export activities and R&D activities, though rather through joint ventures than whole acquisitions.

Monnet’s chain reaction and the future of Europe
Enrico Spolaore (VoxEU) Jul 25, 2015
The idea that Europe’s challenges could be addressed with further integration dates back to the beginning of the European project. This column argues that partial integration might not necessarily lead to more integration. In particular, such a strategy might not be successful in areas involving high heterogeneity costs that do not necessarily reduce with more integration. If further integration is to take place, European institutions may need to accept much more flexibility and have provisions not only for entry, but also for exit.

Asset management and financial stability
Gaston Gelos & Hiroko Oura (VoxEU) Jul 25, 2015
The growth of the asset management industry has raised concerns about its potential impacts on financial stability. This column assesses the systemic risk created by fund managers’ incentive problems and a first-mover advantage for end investors. Fund flows and fund ownership affect asset prices, and fund managers’ behaviour can amplify risks. This lends support to the expansion and strengthening of industry oversight, both at the individual fund and market levels.

The make believe world of eurozone rules Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Jul 26, 2015
The disagreement between Germany and the ECJ is not about the law, but politics and economics.

Africa: more ready to make than consume Financial Times Subscription Required
Paul Collier (FT) Jul 26, 2015
The problem is not a missing middle class but a missing class of organisation.

Don't Cry for Greece, Argentina Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Omar G. Encarnación (FA) Jul 26, 2015
The lessons from the Great Depression.

The race to a risky Trans-Pacific Partnership deal
Shiro Armstrong (EAF) Jul 26, 2015
The largest hurdle for the 12-member Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement — the US president’s ability to get Trade Promotion Authority, or fast track — has been cleared. Many people think that the TPP can be wrapped up in a few months.

Early EU vote will see off Cameron Financial Times Subscription Required
Janan Ganesh (FT) Jul 27, 2015
Even if he persuades Britons to stay in a slightly revised union, the Reaper will still close in.

Bank executive ousting is back in fashion Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Jul 27, 2015
Post-crisis stabilisation and regulatory pressure take toll on European bosses.

China’s Market-Intervention Folly Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Jul 27, 2015
A retreat from economic reform is the prime obstacle to continued Chinese progress.

What the Trans-Pacific Partnership Means for Southeast Asia
Hunter Marston (Diplomat) Jul 27, 2015
The trade deal would be a giant step for the four Southeast Asian countries currently in talks.

Euro Area Recovering, But Lasting Growth Requires Collective Push
IMF Survey Jul 27, 2015
The euro area recovery is strengthening, but the weak medium-term outlook calls for a stronger collective push, said the IMF’s latest review of the currency union.

Greece and the eurozone need the IMF to act
The Banker Jul 27, 2015
The International Monetary Fund has gradually found its voice in the years since its participation in the Greek bail-out of 2010. Now it must go further.

6 reasons Greece’s economy can truly recover this time around
Theodore Pelagidis (Brookings) Jul 27, 2015
With Greece and the troika back at the negotiating table, this time could well be different.

Escaping the Greek Debt Trap
Barry Eichengreen (Bloomberg View) Jul 27, 2015
A 1991 arrangement shows a possible way out of the crisis.

Alpha, Beta, and Beyond
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Jul 27, 2015
Even in normal times, individual and institutional investors alike have a hard time figuring out where to invest and in what. But a new, low-cost approach to investing – neither active nor passive – promises to ease the challenge confronting investors in normal and abnormal times alike.

Market Manipulation Goes Global
Stephen Roach (Project Syndicate) Jul 27, 2015
All eyes are now on China’s attempts to cope with the collapse of a major equity bubble. But the Chinese authorities’ efforts are hardly unique: All the leading economies of the West are doing pretty much the same thing – just dressing it up in different clothes.

Can Greece Save Itself?
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) Jul 27, 2015
If Europe won’t help, the only option is reshaping the economy.

Debt miracle: Why the country that borrowed the most industrialised first
Jaume Ventura and Hans-Joachim Voth (VoxEU) Jul 27, 2015
Is debt really that bad? This column looks at the towering debts, rapid tax hikes, and constant state of war that led to Britain’s Industrial Revolution, showing that the devil is in the detail when assessing sovereign debt. When we consider the dangers of debt in today’s world, we should keep an eye on its potential benefits as well.

The warning signs of trade stagnation Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephanie Flanders (FT) Jul 28, 2015
Data highlight investment slowdown and limits to recovery.

Something is rotten in the euro kingdom Financial Times Subscription Required
Yanis Varoufakis (FT) Jul 28, 2015
Plan would have eased Greece’s chronic liquidity shortage.

Trigger for global shift into renminbi Financial Times Subscription Required
David Marsh (FT) Jul 28, 2015
Inclusion in IMF’s special drawing right currency unit could prompt $100bn of official buying.

Countries Should Take Action to Reduce External Imbalances, IMF Says
IMF Survey Jul 28, 2015
If the world’s largest economies took steps to reduce excess external imbalances, they could improve prospects for sustained global growth and financial stability, according to a new IMF analysis.

Why Is Inflation So Low?
Angel Ubide (PIIE/El Pais) Jun 28, 2015
Since central banks began their quantitative easing (QE) programs to counter the effects of the global financial crisis, seven long years ago, the alarm announcing the imminent arrival of inflation has been pervasive. Monetarists screamed, terrified that the rapid increase in central banks' balance sheets would generate high and accelerating inflation that would require rapid rises in interest rates, with the consequence that the remedy (the QE programs) would end up being worse than the disease (the crisis).

Third Bailout and the Third Punic War
John Weeks (Pieria) Jul 28, 2015
Those in Greece whose hope is that the Third Bailout has bought them time for a better deal with the Troika in the future might reflect on the outcome of the third Punic War.

Latin America’s Anti-Corruption Crusade
Jorge G. Castañeda (Project Syndicate) Jul 28, 2015
Latin America has been plagued by corruption for centuries. But, in responding to recent corruption scandals, the region's societies and institutions have shown their unwillingness to remain complicit in corruption, or continue resigning themselves to its inevitability.

China’s Abnormal Stock Market
Linda Yueh (Project Syndicate) Jul 28, 2015
China's stock market has plunged yet again, and it is likely to fall further. The big question now is whether the recent volatility will spill over into other asset markets and the real economy.

Don’t Lend to Your Euro Friends
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) Jul 28, 2015
After months of brinkmanship, and only a week after Greek voters rejected the conditions for a rescue package, the eurozone's political leaders agreed to start negotiations on a much larger package, worth almost half of Greece’s GDP. Unfortunately, the deal reveals Europe’s apparent determination to reenact the same tragedy in the future.

The Lethal Deferral of Greek Debt Restructuring
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Jul 28, 2015
The point of restructuring debt is to reduce the volume of new loans needed to salvage an insolvent entity: Creditors offer debt relief to get more value back and to extend as little new finance to the insolvent entity as possible. Remarkably, Greece’s creditors seem unable to appreciate this sound financial principle.

Lending Athens a Pot of Gold Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Stephen Kinsella (FA) Jul 28, 2015
Why Ireland should support Greek debt relief.

The Troubled Oil Business
Amory Lovins (Medium) Jul 28, 2015
Hitting peak oil will come faster than any of us think. But don't blame dwindling supply - it's all about disappearing demand.

Innovation, income inequality, and social mobility
Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Antonin Bergeaud, Richard Blundell & David Hemous (VoxEU) Jul 28, 2015
In recent decades, there has been an accelerated increase in top income inequality, particularly in developed countries. This column argues that innovation partly accounts for the surge in top income inequality and fosters social mobility. In particular, the positive effect of innovation on social mobility is due to new innovators.

The ripple effects of China’s market woes Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Jul 29, 2015
Clumsy intervention has had a chilling influence on global sentiment.

Oil Export Momentum Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Jul 29, 2015
Support is growing to repeal a Nixon-era ban that Iran and Russia love.

Explaining the world’s economic funk
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Jul 29, 2015
It’s not gloom so much as worry and restraint.

Letting China’s Bubble Burst
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Jul 29, 2015
As China’s capital markets expand, they are outstripping policymakers' capacity to manage prices and valuations. The only practical way forward is for the authorities to focus on regulatory and institutional development, while following through on their commitment to permit markets to self-correct.

In Defense of Varoufakis
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Jul 29, 2015
Greeks and other Europeans may fault Yanis Varoufakis, Greece's former finance minister, for pursuing his agenda with too little politesse while in office. But the essence of that agenda was – and remains – largely correct.

Encouraging Work
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Jul 29, 2015
Few policies manage to be economically illiterate and heartless at the same time. But Britain’s Conservative government has achieved just that, by cutting tax credits for low-income workers.

Helping solve Africa’s poverty puzzle
John Page (Brookings) Jul 29, 2015
Put simply, despite solid growth since about 1995, Africa’s economies have not generated a sufficient number of jobs that pay enough to draw households out of poverty.

Stock markets, banking crises, and economic recoveries
Ross Levine, Chen Lin and Wensi Xie (VoxEU) Jul 29, 2015
Some have argued that the stock market serves as a ‘spare tire’ during banking crises by providing an alternative corporate financing channel. This column examines the claim using data for 36 countries spanning 20 years. The findings support the three core predictions of the spare tire view, suggesting that countries can insulate parts of their economy from future banking crises by designing appropriate legal frameworks.

Financial frictions, product quality, and international trade
Rosario Crinò and Laura Ogliari (VoxEU) Jul 29, 2015
The production of high-quality goods influences key aspects of countries’ economic performance, including growth and development. This column argues that removing credit market imperfections may help countries transition from the production of low-quality to high-quality goods, especially in industries that are more sensitive to financial frictions.

Cameron should stand up to the eurozone Financial Times Subscription Required
Charles Grant (FT) Jul 30, 2015
UK business worries euro countries could impose their will on the whole EU.

Why summer storms loom for investors Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Jul 30, 2015
Pressure on EMs, concerns on China and US rate make explosive package.

Why China Will Still Reach Its Target Growth Rate Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mark A. Deweaver (WSJ) Jul 30, 2015
The stock market crash won’t stop Beijing from shoveling trillions into wasteful local projects.

China’s Naked Emperors New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jul 30, 2015
The politicians in Beijing who have ruled during economic booms, not unlike many of their American counterparts, have no idea what they’re doing.

Ideas for Greece, From the London Business School New York Times Subscription Required
Elias Papaioannou, Richard Portes and Lucrezia Reichlin (NYT) Jul 30, 2015
Simplistic recommendations that ignore institutional complexities will not help Greece or the eurozone.

TPP Trade Talks at Pivotal Stage as Hawaii Meet Nears Conclusion
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 28 Jul 30, 2015
Trade ministers from 12 Pacific Rim countries are gathered in the US state of Hawaii this week, in an effort to bring the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement to their much-awaited conclusion.

WTO Accessions: General Council Approves Kazakhstan Entry, Liberia Bid Advancing
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 28 Jul 30, 2015
WTO members formally signed off on Kazakhstan's accession on Monday, bringing the Central Asian country into the final stage of becoming the global trade body's 162nd member.

Debate: The Case for Growth
Adam S. Posen (PIIE/Economist) Jul 30, 2015
Economies naturally grow. People innovate as they go through life. They also look around at what others are doing and adopt better practices or tools. They invest, accumulating financial, human, and physical capital.

Rule, Germania
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Jul 30, 2015
A persistent feature of the discussions about how to address Europe's debt crisis has been German leaders' insistence that the rules must be followed. Germany's obsession with rules reflects the way its federal system of government has shaped its decision-making, as well as its historic experience with debt crises.

Primordial risk factors for HIV spread in Africa
Graziella Bertocchi and Arcangelo Dimico (VoxEU) Jul 30, 2015
HIV/AIDS is an endemic economic problem for significant parts of Africa. This column presents evidence suggesting that the demographic shock induced by the slave trade still shapes the contemporary family structures and sexual behaviour of many African countries. Policymakers and human rights organisations should understand that the struggle against HIV/AIDS involves the eradication of deeply rooted beliefs and practices.

In Athens
Tariq Ali (LRB) Jul 30, 2015
The capitulation means more suffering, but it has also led to questions being asked more widely about the EU, its structures and its policies. For Greeks of virtually all political persuasions the EU was once seen as a family to which one must belong. It has turned out to be a pretty dysfunctional family.

Revenge of the Ideologues: Killing the Export-Import Bank New York Times Subscription Required
Joe Nocera (NYT) Jul 31, 2015
The bank helps big and small American businesses compete globally while turning a profit for the Treasury.

The New Slow-Growth Normal and Where It Leads Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Holman Jenkins (WSJ) Jul 31, 2015
On the 800th anniversary of the Magna Carta, an unhinged regulatory state is our doomsday machine.

An Erosion of Confidence in China
Gordon G. Chang (WA) Jul 31, 2015
In a move indicative of the authoritarian Chinese Central Government, China attempted to reverse sliding stocks. But another recent dip in the market reveals that restoring investors’ trust will be the more difficult play.

Forget about Exits: Europe's Choreographed Policy Outlook
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Jul 31, 2015
Following the confrontation-driven agreement between Greece and its international creditors on July 12, Europe appears ready for its usual August torpor. European leaders deserve a break. Their numerous emergency summits have stabilized the continent's outlook for at least the next year, virtually eliminating the specter of a Grexit and lowering the prospect of a British exit from the European Union. In other words, Europe's near-term outlook is not as pessimistic as many experts say.

IMF Gets Smart About Greece
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 31, 2015
Without the right terms, this rescue will fail too.

Who Really Benefits From Bailouts?
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Jul 31, 2015
Financial rescues aren't meant to help average people.

Two Points for Austerity: Spain and Ireland
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jul 31, 2015
These bailed-out countries are recovering nicely.

Still Too Big to Fail
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Jul 31, 2015
Nearly seven years after the global financial crisis erupted, and more than five years after the passage of the Dodd-Frank financial-reform legislation in the US, the cause of the crisis – banks that are “too big to fail” – has yet to be uprooted. As long as that remains the case, another disaster is only a matter of time.

Can the Euro Be Repaired?
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Jul 31, 2015
When Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, recently tabled the option of a Greek exit from the euro, he wanted to signal that no member country could abstain from the monetary union's rules. But his initiative triggered a much broader discussion of the euro’s governance and the very rationale for its existence.

The Profit-Sharing Economy
Laura Tyson (Project Syndicate) Jul 31, 2015
As the income of the top 1% of US households soars, wages for the majority of American workers continue to stagnate, which is undermining long-term economic growth and prosperity. The introduction of more broad-based profit-sharing arrangements could be a key step toward ameliorating this trend.

Still Too Big to Fail
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Jul 31, 2015
Nearly seven years after the global financial crisis erupted, and more than five years after the passage of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation in the United States, the cause of the crisis—the existence of banks that are "too big to fail"—has yet to be uprooted. As long as that remains the case, another disaster is only a matter of time.

European Banks’ Sovereign Debt Home Bias: Voluntary or Involuntary?
Bálint Horváth, Harry Huizinga and Vasso P. Ioannidou (VoxEU) Jul 31, 2015
When banks invest heavily in sovereign debt, and in domestic sovereign debt in particular, the result is a debt home bias. This column presents evidence of a partially voluntary and partially involuntary sovereign debt home bias among large European banks. This bias is stronger if the sovereign is risky and shareholder rights are strong or the government has a positive ownership in the bank. Also, banks with a strong home bias are valued positively by the stock market.

Trends and cycles in China’s macroeconomy
Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel Waggoner and Tao Zha (VoxEU) Aug 1, 2015
China’s spectacular growth over the 2000s has slowed since 2013. The driving force behind the country’s growth was investment, so the key to understanding the slowdown lies in understanding what sustained investment in the past. This column shows how a preferential credit policy promoting heavy industrialisation explains the trends and cycles in China’s macroeconomy over the past two decades. This policy was not without negative consequences, particularly in terms of the distortions it introduced for business finance. Going forward, China needs to focus on creating the right incentives for banks to make loans to small productive businesses.

Customers and investors: A framework for financial institutions
Robert C. Merton and Richard T. Thakor (VoxEU) Aug 1, 2015
Effective delivery of ‘credit-sensitive’ financial services depends on the credit-worthiness of whoever provides the service. This column presents a new framework for understanding the relationships between customers, intermediaries and investors. From the perspective of the framework, designing efficient contracts that insulate customers from the credit risk of the intermediary and impose idiosyncratic risk on investors makes economic sense.

Berlin’s devotion to rules harms EU Financial Times Subscription Required
Mark Mazower (FT) Aug 2, 2015
A confident leadership sets the manual aside in moments of crisis.

China’s market upset is bad for the world Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Fenby (FT) Aug 2, 2015
Global prosperity may ultimately be the loser.

Brazil: Engine trouble Financial Times Subscription Required
Joe Leahy (FT) Aug 2, 2015
Once a motor of the global economy the country is now the sick man of emerging markets.

Review: ‘The Economics of Inequality,’ by Thomas Piketty New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Aug 2, 2015
Mr. Piketty follows up “Capital in the Twenty-First Century,” last year’s landmark economic analysis, with a slightly revised version of a book he wrote in 1997.

Monetary policy at the zero lower bound
Angus Armstrong, Francesco Caselli, Jagjit Chadha and Wouter den Haan (VoxEU) Aug 2, 2015
Does monetary policy really face a zero lower bound or could policy rates be pushed materially below zero per cent? And would the benefits of reforms to achieve negative policy rates outweigh the costs? This column, which reports the views of the leading UK-based macroeconomists, suggests that there is no strong support for reforming the monetary system to allow policy rates to be set at negative levels.

Why gold has lost its shine for investors Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Aug 3, 2015
Metal has not reacted to events that would usually push up price.

Renewables risk overpowering the market Financial Times Subscription Required
Pilita Clark (FT) Aug 3, 2015
Falling costs mean wind and solar generators could become victims of their own success.

Emerging markets: Redrawing the world map Financial Times Subscription Required
James Kynge and Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Aug 3, 2015
The term has become obsolete, say critics, as developing markets overtake developed ones in some areas.

America's Un-Greek Tragedies in Puerto Rico and Appalachia New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Aug 3, 2015
The differences between the European catastrophes and economic crises in the United States are a matter of a stronger union.

The Cure for Gilead
Jeffrey Sachs (HuffPo) Aug 3, 2015
Gilead has the cure for Hepatitis C (HCV) known as Sofosbuvir, which is taken alone or in combination with other drugs. Now we need a cure for Gilead.

The IMF Goes Varoufakis? Please Don’t!
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Aug 3, 2015
Message to Washington: Debt relief for Greece is a big fat red herring.

Cheaper Oil And Sanctions Weigh On Russia’s Growth Outlook
IMF Survey Aug 3, 2015
Russia’s economy is expected to contract by 3.4 percent in 2015, although growth should return in 2016, according to the IMF’s latest economic health check.

IIF Flows Alert: Reversal in Late July
Robin Koepke and Scott Farnham (IIF) Aug 3, 2015
After several months of cautious investor behavior, EM portfolio flows suffered a sharper retrenchment in late July,

The impact of climate change on the global economy
Keith Wade and Marcus Jennings (Pieria) Aug 3, 2015
An examination of the effect of climate change on global growth and inflation.

Greece Is Still Doomed Without Debt Relief
Bloomberg View Aug 3, 2015
But creditor nations aren't making it easy -- on Greece, or themselves.

This Recovery Really Is Different
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Aug 3, 2015
Rebounding from a financial crisis takes a lot longer.

Ex-Im Bank Is a Tiny But Tempting Target
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Aug 3, 2015
Critics of this export subsidizer are overreacting. They're also right.

The Government the Eurozone Deserves
Yannos Papantoniou (Project Syndicate) Aug 3, 2015
A move toward fiscal and political integration is the price that Europe must pay to maintain its unity and global relevance. The alternative is inconsistent – if not arbitrary – enforcement of the current rules, inducing divisiveness among member states, and eventual fragmentation.

A Marshall Plan for the United States
Dambisa Moyo (Project Syndicate) Aug 3, 2015
When a major highway bridge in California collapsed last month, the impact on the entire southwestern United States once again highlighted the country’s serious infrastructure problem. Indeed, in a sense, the world’s largest economy is falling apart.

Disrupting development with digital technology
Kemal Dervis (Brookings) Aug 3, 2015
Three trends that have the potential to redefine global development and efforts to support it.

Greece’s Ills Require a Banking Fix Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Andrew Atkeson and John H. Cochrane (WSJ) Aug 4, 2015
The Greek stock-market crash is fresh evidence that more reforms are urgently needed.

A dystopian welfare state funded by clicks Financial Times Subscription Required
Evgeny Morozov (FT) Aug 4, 2015
What was a publicly funded safety net will become private but free services.

Hayes verdict unlikely to deter traders Financial Times Subscription Required
Frank Partnoy (FT) Aug 4, 2015
Financial fraud is not like murder as transactions can appear morally ambiguous.

Lessons learnt from crisis that never was Financial Times Subscription Required
Ed Balls (FT) Aug 4, 2015
Sometimes the biggest potential risks are staring you in the face.

Egypt: New foundations Financial Times Subscription Required
Heba Saleh (FT) Aug 4, 2015
More than half of Egyptians live in unregulated, poor housing but a new initiative could change that.

International Traders Target Malaysia's Ringgit
John Berthelsen (Asia Sentinel) Aug 5, 2015
Political crisis draws currency sharks into the financial sea.

How Spain Fixed Its Economy
Bloomberg View Aug 4, 2015
The IMF and austerity don't deserve all the credit for Spain's growth.

Thailand's Generals Don't Have an Economic Plan
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 4, 2015
And the manufacturing powerhouse needs a serious jolt.

The Economics of Europe's Migrant Crisis
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Aug 4, 2015
Lack of coordination and will makes solutions elusive.

China Hopes to Defy History of Market Bailouts
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Aug 4, 2015
It sort of worked for J.P. Morgan in 1907. But this is very different.

China’s Malfunctioning Financial Regulation
Zhang Jun (Project Syndicate) Aug 4, 2015
The tumult in China's equity market appears to have come to an end. But considerable uncertainty remains, not only about what caused the recent plunge in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, but also about what the episode will mean for China’s financial-reform efforts.

Why Greece Declined a Euro Holiday
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Aug 4, 2015
The rationale for the euro, as many critics have noted, was always more political than economic. But Greece's sudden about-face on austerity suggests that, contrary to popular belief, countries’ political attachment to Europe via the euro remains very strong.

A New Deal for Debt Overhangs?
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Aug 4, 2015
The IMF’s acknowledgement that Greece’s debt is unsustainable could prove to be a watershed moment for the global financial system. Clearly, heterodox policies to deal with high debt burdens need to be taken more seriously, even in some advanced countries.

A Defeat for International Tax Cooperation
José Antonio Ocampo (Project Syndicate) Aug 4, 2015
At the Third International Conference on Financing for Development in Addis Ababa last month, efforts to strengthen international tax cooperation came to an abrupt halt. But, despite developed countries' resistance, calls to reform the international tax system are not likely to go away.

Advice From Antiquity Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Josiah Ober (FA) Aug 4, 2015
Economic lessons From ancient Greece.

Gatecrasher at Obama’s African homecoming Financial Times Subscription Required
Tolu Ogunlesi (FT) Aug 5, 2015
President shows more interest in the continent, but the upper hand remains with China.

GDP bonds answer to Greek debt problem Financial Times Subscription Required
Charles Goodhart (FT) Aug 5, 2015
Move would lower burden without being unfair to other debtor countries.

Redefining EM: Country clusters offer new matrix Financial Times Subscription Required
Peter Marber (FT) Aug 5, 2015

Debt markets: After the binge Financial Times Subscription Required
Robin Wigglesworth and Elaine Moore (FT) Aug 5, 2015
Low interest rates sparked record bond issuance but with rates set to rise the market is anxious.

In Greece, Reliance on Public Funds Is the Central Problem
Justin Murray (Mises Daily) Aug 5, 2015
Greece is a hot topic at the moment, mostly with the continued negotiations over bailouts from the European Union and, through institutions like the IMF, the world at large.

Chinese Consumers Prefer Chinese Brands
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 5, 2015
The market isn't easy prey for multinationals.

How China Is Winning Southeast Asia
Kent Harrington (Project Syndicate) Aug 5, 2015
In only two decades, China has become Southeast Asian countries’ leading economic partner, boosting its influence throughout the region. China’s leaders' constant effort to expand economic cooperation stands in stark contrast to the Americans' approach to the region.

Africa’s Green Energy Opportunity
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Nicholas Stern (Project Syndicate) Aug 5, 2015
In the past, providing electricity to the 1.3 billion people without access to it today would have required emitting more greenhouse gases, thus aggravating the consequences of climate change. Fortunately, it is now possible to expand access to energy in developing countries while also limiting emissions.

Can the Renminbi Take on the World?
Alexander Friedman (Project Syndicate) Aug 5, 2015
The Chinese have a saying: “Take a second look; it costs you nothing.” This advice is apt in the context of China’s current stock-market volatility, the implications of which extend to the country's core strategic goal of establishing the renminbi as a global reserve currency.

Going Rogue: Malaysia and the 1MDB Scandal
Danny Quah (Diplomat) Aug 5, 2015
Democracy and rule of law won’t magically clear society of cronies and corruption.

Systemic risk, crises, and macroprudential regulation
Xavier Freixas, Luc Laeven and José-Luis Peydró (VoxEU) Aug 5, 2015
There has been much talk about using macroprudential policy to manage systemic risk and reduce negative spillovers, but there is little agreement on how it could be operationalised. This column highlights the findings of a new book on the topic and offers a framework for operationalising macroprudential policy. Macroprudential measures, together with higher capital requirements, could be used to tame the build-up of leverage and credit booms in order to prevent financial crises.

Dread risk is not to blame for everything Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Aug 6, 2015
The truth is that bullish markets did nothing for bearish boards.

Dollar rise: further to go or finished? Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Aug 6, 2015
Stronger dollar presents problems for many areas in financial markets.

China migration: Dying for land Financial Times Subscription Required
Lucy Hornby (FT) Aug 6, 2015
Urbanisation is leading to violent clashes between developers and farmers amid a fight for control of the land.

What’s Chinese for TARP? Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Aug 6, 2015
An estimate that Beijing spent 10% of GDP to prop up stocks.

Pacific Trade Brinksmanship Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Aug 6, 2015
Countries are trying to exploit Obama’s desire for a deal on his watch.

The U.S. and China fight for second place
Catherine Rampell (WP) Aug 6, 2015
Both the U.S. and China consider themselves economic underdogs and see the other as a bully

Brazilians' Debt Is Mostly Not Their Fault
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Aug 6, 2015
Usurious lenders created the problem. Scary collectors won't solve it.

Indonesia's Economy Has Stopped Emerging
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 6, 2015
The president's mismanagement is scaring off investors.

Reassessing the Internet of Things
Martin Neil Baily and James Manyika (Project Syndicate) Aug 6, 2015
The possibilities associated with the Internet of Things seem endless, and the predictions have been extravagant. But, while the gains are indeed likely to be tremendous, it will take time for the changes in the way businesses operate to be detected at the macroeconomic level.

America in the Way
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Aug 6, 2015
Today, developing countries and emerging markets say to the US and others: If you will not keep your promises on development aid, at least get out of the way and let us create an international economic architecture that works for the poor. Not surprisingly, the US is doing whatever it can to thwart such efforts.

What Greece Needs to Prosper
Edmund S. Phelps (Project Syndicate) Aug 6, 2015
When some economists look at Greece, they argue that a shift in fiscal policy to “austerity” – a smaller public sector – has brought an acute deficiency of demand and thus a depression. But this claim misreads history and exaggerates the power of government spending.

What really drives public debt
Alex Pienkowski & Pablo Anaya (VoxEU) Aug 6, 2015
During the Global Crisis, sovereign debt-to-GDP ratios grew substantially in the face of shocks to growth, increased fiscal deficits, bank recapitalisation costs, and rising borrowing costs. This column looks at how these various shocks interact with each other to exacerbate or mitigate the eventual impact on debt. Choice of monetary policy regime is an important determinant of how public debt reacts to these shocks.

Currency changes and contracts: Lessons for Greece
Sebastian Edwards (VoxEU) Aug 6, 2015
Many commentators continue to think that Greece’s best bet is Grexit and the drachma, but few are talking about what will happen to contracts. This column uses Franklin D Roosevelt’s devaluation of the US dollar to give an historical perspective on currency devaluations and contract litigation. Roosevelt got away with it because the Supreme Court ruled that prices in old contracts were void and, importantly, because everyone trusted the Supreme Court’s rulings. Grexit would mean litigation in international courts – courts that are likely to side with the plaintiffs.

Capitalists, Arise: We Need to Deal With Income Inequality New York Times Subscription Required
Peter Georgescu (NYT) Aug 7, 2015
If we don't deal with income inequality, we'll face intolerable taxes or social unrest.

The Chinese Renminbi Is Not a Freely Usable Currency Yet
Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Aug 7, 2015
Is the Chinese renminbi (RMB) a freely usable currency? Most participants in international financial markets would say no, for several reasons. The government of China exercises tight limits and substantial oversight over the extent to which foreign investors can buy RMB and purchase claims on China. Chinese investors face similar restrictions on the extent to which they can use their RMB and invest abroad.

Maybe the Commodities Supercycle Is Actually Real
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Aug 7, 2015
Oil might be joining long-term decline.

Rise of the Robots May Hold Back Interest Rates
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Aug 7, 2015
Central bankers want to see wage growth. Robots don't help.

A Japanese Development Course for India
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Aug 7, 2015
Japan shows the way: infrastructure, manufacturing, progress.

The Right Time to Reform Fuel Pricing
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Aug 7, 2015
Should we want oil prices to go up, because that will discourage oil consumption, or down because that will discourage oil production? In fact, countries should seek both outcomes: Lower the price paid to oil producers and raise the price paid by oil consumers, by cutting subsidies for oil products or raising taxes on them.

The Promise and Peril of Macroprudential Policy
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Aug 7, 2015
Central bankers continue to fret about frothy asset markets – as well they should, given the financial crisis of 2008-2009. But, rather than standing idly by, policymakers should be developing a set of tools specifically tailored to limit the buildup of financial-sector risk.

Exchange rate appreciations and growth: The drivers matter
Matthieu Bussière, Claude Lopez & Cédric Tille (VoxEU) Aug 7, 2015
Exchange rate appreciations could potentially have a damaging effect on competiveness and domestic production. This column argues that the relationship between exchange rate appreciations and growth depends on the underlying shock. Appreciations due to the surge of capital inflows could be relatively less favourable for growth. Concern about appreciations is therefore well-founded when they are due to shocks in global financial markets.

A proposed research and policy agenda for systemic risk
Jon Danielsson and Jean-Pierre Zigrand (VoxEU) Aug 7, 2015
The long-running Greek crisis and China’s recent stock market crash are the latest threats to the stability of the global financial system. But as this column explains, systemic risk is an inevitable part of any market-based economy. While we won’t eliminate systemic risk entirely, the agenda for researchers and policymakers should be to create a more resilient financial system that is less prone to disastrous crises and that still delivers benefits for the economy and for society.

A Cheer and a Half for Cheap Commodities New York Times Subscription Required
Jeff Sommer (NYT) Aug 8, 2015
Consumers may welcome lower prices of products like gasoline, but the decline in global commodity markets could be a sign of trouble ahead.

Democracy at the heart of fight for Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Sandbu (FT) Aug 9, 2015
Desire to keep the euro but with different policies is unacceptable to eurozone elite.

Long-termism no panacea, but it’s a start Financial Times Subscription Required
Lawrence Summers (FT) Aug 9, 2015
The real need is for a cadre of trusted, tough-minded investors that will support strong management teams.

Why transparency can be a dirty word Financial Times Subscription Required
Francis Fukuyama (FT) Aug 9, 2015
Demands for certain kinds of openness have hurt government effectiveness.

‘Prisoners of Geography’, by Tim Marshall Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Dombey (FT) Aug 9, 2015
The plain truth about geography and ideology.

Venezuela: ‘Terrorised by oil price drop’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Andres Schipani (FT) Aug 9, 2015
Of the top oil producing nations it has been hit hardest.

Rating agencies still matter — which is inexcusable Financial Times Subscription Required
Nouriel Roubini (FT) Aug 10, 2015
Spotting risk is hard, but it is a mistake to let others do the work.

Berlin must lead Europe to closer union Financial Times Subscription Required
Constanze Stelzenmüller (FT) Aug 10, 2015
Integration is a noble attempt to overcome the EU’s problems.

China’s delusions of regional hegemony Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Bowring (FT) Aug 10, 2015
Other Asian states want to squash Beijing’s leadership ambitions.

Bearish bets multiply as China slows Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Aug 10, 2015
Effects on trading partners could be severe, with Fed rate rise in offing.

US consumers are less healthy than investors hope Financial Times Subscription Required
Russ Koesterich (FT) Aug 10, 2015
Rise in spending unlikely as wage inflation fails to take hold.

Aluminium: Meltdown fears Financial Times Subscription Required
Henry Sanderson, Naomi Rovnick and Lucy Hornby (FT) Aug 10, 2015
Soaring Chinese output is causing trade friction as rivals claim Beijing’s tax loopholes offer unfair advantage.

Why 'Smart' Objects May Be a Dumb Idea New York Times Subscription Required
Zeynep Tufekci (NYT) Aug 10, 2015
Our cars, fridges and even bank safes are connected to the Internet. It's making us vulnerable in new and alarming ways.

The World-Wide Undermining of Free Markets Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Roman Hatchuel (WSJ) Aug 9, 2015
China’s interference in its stock markets reflects a global trend of states trying to govern economic activity.

Four Economic Myths that Perpetuate the Euro Crisis
Patrick Barron (Mises Daily) Aug 10, 2015
Too much of the commentary about the Greek crisis has focused on whether or not Greece should drop the euro and not enough on the structural problems arising out of decades of socialism. Meanwhile, the Greek government has borrowed more money than the Greek people can possibly repay, and debased money will not make this fact disappear. On the contrary, more easy money will cause even more harm.

1990s Come Back to Haunt Malaysia
William Pesek (Bloomberg View_ Aug 10, 2015
Averting the last crisis caused the current one.

Fed on Verge of Getting Back to Normal
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Aug 10, 2015
The central bank is no longer dealing with a financial crisis.

Yellen Brings a Sigh of Economic Relief
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Aug 10, 2015
Volatility has gone down since she's moved up.

The Great Democracies’ New Harmony
Joseph S. Nye (Project Syndicate) Aug 10, 2015
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited US President Barack Obama to attend India’s Republic Day ceremonies earlier this year, it signaled an important change in bilateral relations. No one should expect an Indian-American alliance any time soon, but several factors are likely to strengthen the relationship in the coming years.

Greece’s Aid Addiction
Dambisa Moyo (Project Syndicate) Aug 10, 2015
The ongoing Greek saga is tragic for many reasons, not least among them the fact that the country's relationship with its creditors is reminiscent of that between the developing world and the aid industry. As with other aid programs, huge sums have been transferred to Greece, with negative, if unintended, consequences.

Is China’s Growth Miracle Over?
Zheng Liu (FRBSF Econ Letter) Aug 10, 2015
The recent slowdown in China’s growth has caused concern about its long-term growth prospects. Evidence suggests that, before 2008, China’s growth miracle was driven primarily by productivity improvement following economic policy reforms. Since 2008, however, growth has become more dependent on investment and overall growth has slowed. If the recent reform plans can successfully address the country’s structural imbalances, China could maintain a solid growth rate that might help smooth its transition to high-income status.

Is Greece to Blame for the Crisis? Recommended! Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Various (FA) Aug 10, 2015
Foreign Affairs' brain trust weighs in.

The end of the Malthusian nightmare Financial Times Subscription Required
Robin Harding (FT) Aug 11, 2015
Falling fertility opens a new stage in human history, with greater control of our destiny.

Miracles of productivity in our hands Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) Aug 11, 2015
But the data framework of economic analysis is still largely the product of the second world war.

A Greek deal based on fear and mistrust Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Sandbu (FT) Aug 11, 2015
Europe has been frightened into stepping back from the brink.

China’s renminbi sets risky precedent Financial Times Subscription Required
George Magnus (FT) Aug 11, 2015
Officials had tried everything short of devaluation. Finally they succumbed

Bearish bets multiply as China slows Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Aug 11, 2015
Effects on trading partners could be severe with Fed rate rise in offing.

Why Did China Devalue Its Currency? Two Big Reasons New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Aug 11, 2015
The nation wanted to keep its economy on an even keel, but it is also looking to assert more leadership in the global economy.

China’s Devaluation Gambit Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Aug 11, 2015
A move to liberalize currency controls, or a panicky bid to lift exports?

Amplify the Oil Boom by Liberating U.S. Exports Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
John Deutch (WSJ) Aug 11, 2015
Ending the ban on sending crude overseas would increase jobs. Fears about a gasoline price spike are overblown.

What Does China's Devaluation Mean?
Bloomberg View Aug 11, 2015
A suspiciously convenient moment for China to see the merits of a market-based exchange rate.

Give China's Devaluation a Chance
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 11, 2015
A weak yuan sets Beijing up for big reforms.

The Wrong Way to Make a Trade Deal Public
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Aug 11, 2015
Paying a thief to leak the terms? It's practically bribery.

Deflation Stalks the Euro Zone
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Aug 11, 2015
A growing economy isn't enough. Consumer prices are languishing.

China Escalates the Currency Wars
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Aug 11, 2015
A rising dollar and a falling yuan spell pain for Chinese and American companies.

Making Sense of China’s Currency Move
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Aug 11, 2015
Will a longtime locomotive of global growth become a drag?

Let the Global Race to the Bottom Begin Foreign Policy Subscription Required
Patrick Chovanec (FP) Aug 11, 2015
Why China's big currency devaluation is bad for it, for America, and for the world.

Beware of American econ professors!
Yannis Palaiologos (Politico) Aug 11, 2015
How Krugman, Sachs and Stiglitz led the Greeks astray.

We the People of Europe
Laszlo Bruszt and David Stark (Project Syndicate) Aug 11, 2015
The political environment in Europe today would be familiar to anyone living in the US in the early 1780s. The parallels between that period of American history and the ongoing crisis in the EU offer a reason for hope that some of the most difficult issues facing the continent can one day be resolved.

The Future of Work: Why Wages Aren't Keeping Up
Robert Solow (Pacific Standard) Aug 11, 2015
The latest entry in a special project in which business and labor leaders, social scientists, technology visionaries, activists, and journalists weigh in on the most consequential changes in the workplace.

Capitalists, Arise!: Q. & A. With Peter Georgescu New York Times Subscription Required
Peter Georgescu (NYT) Aug 12, 2015
The author of a Sunday Review article arguing that capitalists must address rising income inequality responds to reader comments.

Modi must fire up ‘Make in India’ dream Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Aug 12, 2015
A goal to increase manufacturing is overdue but the obstacles are formidable.

What next: China housing crash? Financial Times Subscription Required
Andy Rothman (FT) Aug 12, 2015
Prices have fallen but high deposit required means low risk of crisis.

Ukraine Deserves Debt Relief Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
George Soros (WSJ) Aug 12, 2015
The war-torn country is working hard on the reforms that will get the economy back on its feet.

Overselling the Importance of When the Interest-Rate Rise Begins Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) Aug 12, 2015
September? December? Next year? That doesn’t matter as much as how swiftly rates increase after the first hike.

Asset-Price Inflation Enters Its Dangerous Late Phase
Brendan Brown (Mises Daily) Aug 12, 2015
Asset price inflation, a disease whose source always lies in monetary disorder, is not a new affliction.

Is Indonesia Really Open to Joining the TPP?
Prashanth Parameswaran (Diplomat) Aug 12, 2015
What a minister’s recent comments say about Jakarta’s openness to joining the agreement.

Italy at a Crossroads
Emanuele Schibotto (Globalist) Aug 12, 2015
Can Italy finally hope for a much-needed political stability?

Modi Needs a Reset
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Aug 12, 2015
Instead of producing more schemes and slogans, the prime minister must sell Indians again on the need for painful restructuring.

Maybe China Doesn't Have a Master Plan
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Aug 12, 2015
They're just winging it like everyone else.

China Adds a Chainsaw to Its Juggling Act
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 12, 2015
Trying to affect debt, stocks and now the yuan.

The Threat of Greek Debt Relief
Christoph M. Schmidt (Project Syndicate) Aug 12, 2015
The case for debt relief for Greece is not as strong as many observers seem to think. Not only is debt far from the strongest drag on the country's economic growth; a reduction in Greece's nominal debt would undermine the common framework of rules and standards that underpins the eurozone.

China will struggle with its stock markets until it completes reforms
Douglas J. Elliott (Brookings) Aug 12, 2015
Until China moves forward with corporate governance and stock market reforms, investors should exercise great caution.

Greek debt sustainability: The devil is in the tails
Andrea Consiglio & Stavros A. Zenios (VoxEU) Aug 12, 2015
Some experts view Greek debt as sustainable, while others claim it is not sustainable. This column argues that the distinction between tactical and strategic debt sustainability can explain this difference of opinions. Moreover, strategic debt sustainability analysis should account for tail risk. This approach shows that Greek debt is highly unsustainable, but sustainability can be restored with a nominal haircut of 50%, interest rate concessions of 70%, or a rescheduling of debt to a weighted average maturity of 20 years. Greece and its creditors should ‘bet on the future’ and embrace debt relief.

The sterling-dollar rate and expectations of the return to gold in the early 1920s
Stefan Gerlach & Peter Kugler (VoxEU) Aug 12, 2015
Anticipation of future economic policy changes may impact assets such as foreign exchange. This column argues that expectations of a return to gold were an important determinant of the sterling-dollar exchange rate in the early 1920s. The probability of sterling’s return to gold increased from around 15% to over 70% in the second half of 1924, a few months before Churchill announced it in April 1925.

Zombie corporate cash infests US economy Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Aug 13, 2015
Low interest rates make it hard to achieve returns in capital markets that many have given up trying.

Futile quest to get the Chinese to spend Financial Times Subscription Required
Robert Boxwell (FT) Aug 13, 2015
No amount of government prodding can crack a prevalent frugal culture.

Confessions of an analyst Financial Times Subscription Required
Daniel Davies (FT) Aug 13, 2015
The flaws of buy-sell ratings on equities.

Lessons for China from past currency pegs Financial Times Subscription Required
Gene Frieda (FT) Aug 13, 2015
Similarities exist but also advantage of foreign reserve buffer.

IMF: Lagarde eyes new act in Greek drama Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Aug 13, 2015
After months of negotiations, the fund’s managing director hopes its stance on debt relief will be implemented.

The truth about China’s currency devaluation
Catherine Rampell (WP) Aug 13, 2015
Despite what Trump et al. may tell you, China has just done what we’ve been asking it to do for.

China: Rethinking the Yuan Devaluation
Helmut Reisen (Globalist) Aug 13, 2015
Understanding China's currency move from a non-Western-centric perspective.

Devalued Yuan Seeks Reserve Currency Status, But US Dollar Dominates
Will Hickey (YaleGlobal) Aug 13, 2015
Investors and economies cling to and strengthen the US dollar, despite many glaring imbalances

China's Devaluation Can't Be Good News
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Aug 13, 2015
Arguments that it's benign don't hold up.

How the IMF Failed Greece
Arvind Subramanian (Project Syndicate) Aug 13, 2015
Throughout their country’s debt crisis, Greeks have been presented with two stark choices: Stay in the eurozone, implement austerity, and receive financing, or leave the monetary union and attempt to survive on their own. In reality, Greece should have been offered a third choice, but the IMF refused to put it on the table.

Back to Fundamentals in Emerging Markets
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Aug 13, 2015
After 15 years of hype, it is now clear that emerging markets are in deep trouble. As stronger global headwinds emerge in the years ahead, it will become easier to distinguish countries that have strengthened their economic and political fundamentals from those that have coasted on the tenuous strength of fickle investor sentiment.

Next-Generation Development
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Aug 13, 2015
A panel of 82 eminent economists analyzed the proposed Sustainable Development Goals to establish which targets are likely to be most effective. They found that the world's energies and resources would be best focused on improving the lives of children.

World trade: Have we reached peak globalization? Recommended!
Carlos A. Primo Braga (IMD) Aug 13, 2015
A guide for the debate between believers and sceptics of the benefits of international trade.
Grouping countries by shared characteristics defines stages of development and risk.

A pragmatic approach to external debt: The write-down of Germany’s debts in 1953
Timothy W. Guinnane (VoxEU) Aug 13, 2015

Renminbi shift challenges global markets Financial Times Subscription Required
John Authers (FT) Aug 14, 2015
China’s economic woes, rather than PBoC, could drive devaluation

Bungling Beijing’s Stock Markets New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Aug 14, 2015
China’s leaders still don’t understand how markets work.

China’s Renminbi Devaluation May Initiate New Phase in Global Currency War New York Times Subscription Required
Peter Eavis (NYT) Aug 14, 2015
Some analysts say the currency tensions could worsen some of the entrenched problems in the global economy. China’s move also poses a dilemma for the Fed as it considers raising interest rates.

India's Problems Go Beyond Noodles
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Aug 14, 2015
The country's safety agencies aren't independent or equipped enough to handle a modern economy.

China Declares Currency Independence
David Malpass (WSJ) Aug 14, 2015
Yuan devaluation is part of a shift away from the dollar bloc that has dominated Asia since World War II.

China’s Surprise Currency Devaluation
Sara Hsu (Diplomat) Aug 14, 2015
Why did Beijing do it? The official explanation makes the most sense.

China Gambles with the Yuan
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) Aug 14, 2015
The wild ride that the yuan has taken has left plenty of people perplexed, including, perhaps, the country’s own policymakers.

Oil’s New Normal
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Aug 14, 2015
At the end of the day, no swing producer controls the fate of today’s oil prices. A sustained price recovery requires a healthier global economy that combines faster inclusive growth and greater financial stability.

Local Innovation for Local Problems
Muhammad Hamid Zaman (Project Syndicate) Aug 14, 2015
When it comes to finding solutions to problems like the proliferation of fake or low-quality drugs, policymakers in the developing world are more likely to look abroad than at home. This is a big mistake, as local innovation is likely to be central to any successful effort to address the problem – and many others as well.

Low inflation in the Eurozone
Stefano Neri and Stefano Siviero (VoxEU) Aug 15, 2015
EZ inflation has been falling steadily since early 2013, turning negative in late 2014. This column surveys a host of recent research from Banca d’Italia that examined the drivers of this fall, its macroeconomic effects, and ECB responses. Aggregate demand and oil prices played key roles in the drop, which has consistently ‘surprised’ market-based expectations. Towards the end of 2014 the risk of the ECB de-anchoring inflation expectations from the definition of price stability became material.

Ancient origins of Xi’s brand of justice Financial Times Subscription Required
Isabel Hilton (FT) Aug 16, 2015
Han Fei believed that individuals must submit to absolute state power.

Saudi’s hard choices on oil and influence Financial Times Subscription Required
Nick Butler (FT) Aug 16, 2015
The country’s interests lie in price stability for the next five years.

Linguistic purge finds inequality Marx missed Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Aug 16, 2015
The importance of the role of the state and law in facilitating the capitalist dynamic.

Investing: The index factor Financial Times Subscription Required
John Authers (FT) Aug 16, 2015
Indices have become one of the most potent forces in markets.

A Global Recession May Be Brewing in China Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Ruchir Sharma (WSJ) Aug 16, 2015
Beijing’s desperate attempts to hit its arbitrary 7% growth target are having world-wide repercussions.

China Makes Debt Burden Heavier for Others
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Aug 16, 2015
Yuan devaluation aggravates a dollar problem in emerging markets.

Can Asia keep growing through middle income?
Indermit Gill and Homi Kharas (EAF) Aug 16, 2015
About a decade ago we observed that there was no easily communicable growth strategy we could recommend to policymakers in the middle income economies in Asia.

Collateral damage: Dollar strength and emerging markets’ growth
Pablo Druck, Nicolas Magud and Rodrigo Mariscal (VoxEU) Aug 16, 2015
The strength of the US dollar can impact the economic activity in emerging economies in various ways. This column argues that appreciation of the dollar mitigates the impact of real GDP growth in emerging markets. The main transmission channel is through an income effect. As the dollar appreciates, commodity prices fall, depressing domestic demand via lower real income, and as a result real GDP in emerging markets decelerates. Emerging markets’ growth is expected to remain subdued, reflecting the expected persistence of the strong dollar.

Corn Wars
Ted Genoways (New Republic) Aug 16, 2015
The farm-by-farm fight between China and the United States to dominate the global food supply.

Increase reserves and shelve Dodd-Frank Financial Times Subscription Required
Alan Greenspan (FT) Aug 17, 2015
A gradual rise in capital requirements need not suppress earnings.

S Korea grapples with contradiction of ‘chaebols’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Simon Mundy (FT) Aug 17, 2015
Pardon for SK Group scion shows law must change to protect cherished institutions Read more >>

Global reflation/recession battle looms Financial Times Subscription Required
Jay Pelosky (FT) Aug 17, 2015
China’s shift from global customer to global competitor is key factor.

Japan: A pacifist’s plan to arm the world Financial Times Subscription Required
Leo Lewis and Robin Harding (FT) Aug 17, 2015
PM hopes defence exports will boost the country’s industrial base and counter China’s rise Read more >>

China’s Transition to Slower But Better Growth
IMF Survey Aug 17, 2015
China is moving to a “new normal,” of slower yet safer and more sustainable growth. This involves giving the market a more decisive role in the economy, says the IMF in its annual assessment of the economy.

Markets Focus on Risks in Asia
Andrew Barber (II) Aug 17, 2015
Japanese growth data released today confirmed that second-quarter GDP contracted despite a slightly better-than-forecast pace of -0.4 percent versus the prior three months.

Operation Big Data: Challenge accepted
Thomas F. Dapp and Alexander Karollus (DB Research) Aug 17, 2015
Big data is a hot topic. The large digital platform operators in particular have long recognised the economic potential of algorithm-based data analysis. They demonstrate this to billions of customers professionally every day. With their analytical technologies they generate high revenues and tie us loyal customers ever more firmly to their platforms via convenient and, above all, individualised services. A steadily growing number of companies want to imitate this lucrative lock-in effect so they can also capitalise on the benefits of big data. Nonetheless, in many sectors the implementation of modern data analysis tools is proceeding only sluggishly. Contrary to the expectations of some market participants, big data is not a simple add-on.

The Eurozone After Greece: Spain Vs. France
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Aug 17, 2015
How do the EU’s third- and fifth-largest economies compare with regard to reform readiness?

This Latest Greek Deal Is Nothing to Celebrate
Bloomberg View Aug 17, 2015
It's probably better than no deal.

Heading Off Bond-Market Tantrums
Bloomberg View Aug 17, 2015
Liquidity crunch or not, here's how to reassure investors before interest rates rise.

Are You Rich? No Need to Apologize
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Aug 17, 2015
History suggests capitalism brings out the best in people.

Japan Exports Its Way to Irrelevance
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 17, 2015
Tokyo should follow China's economic example: diversify.

Facing Down Secular Stagnation in China
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Aug 17, 2015
Secular stagnation is looming worldwide, and China is no exception. Will the Chinese authorities’ latest move to address the economy's slowdown – devaluation of the renminbi – be enough to turn the tide?

A New Approach to Eurozone Sovereign Debt
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Aug 17, 2015
The problem with debt restructuring in the eurozone is that it is essential and, at the same time, inconsistent with the implicit constitution underpinning the monetary union. When economics clashes with an institution's rules, policymakers must either find creative ways to amend the rules or watch their creation collapse.

The Great Emerging-Market Bubble
Bill Emmott (Project Syndicate) Aug 17, 2015
Something has gone badly wrong in the emerging economies that were supposed to shape the world's future. Although falling commodity prices, fracking, US interest rates, and other factors have been blamed for these countries' woes, the real culprit is poor policymaking, owing to weak political institutions.

You Don’t Know Zhou Foreign Policy Subscription Required
Daniel Altman (FP) Aug 17, 2015
Pundits can argue about devaluation versus market forces. But only one man knows for sure what the People’s Bank of China was up to when the value of the renminbi fell last week.

Inequality is unjust, not bad for growth Financial Times Subscription Required
Chris Giles (FT) Aug 18, 2015
That redistribution boosts economies is not established by the evidence.

A currency skirmish not made in China Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Aug 18, 2015
Beijing has kept the renminbi strong — which has earnt it little credit.

China’s entrepreneurialism can lift gloom Financial Times Subscription Required
Tom Mitchell (FT) Aug 18, 2015
Companies are worried about squeezing profit from slowing economy.

Overvalued equities can keep rising Financial Times Subscription Required
Christophe Donay (FT) Aug 18, 2015
Central banks’ informal policy style puts floor under asset prices.

We borrow from the future at our peril Financial Times Subscription Required
Peter Fisher (FT) Aug 18, 2015
Central banks seem concerned about liquidity, but it is not the issue.

Eurozone: The case against ‘cash for reform’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Sandbu (FT) Aug 18, 2015
EU bailouts were based on the belief that a wave of sovereign defaults could doom the single currency. But was it correct?

Europe, Listen to the I.M.F. and Restructure the Greek Debt New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Aug 18, 2015
Rather than go through a messy default in a few years, Europe should restructure Greece's debt now.

Emerging Asia Can't Just Rely on China
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 18, 2015
Faith in the region's growth is no longer enough.

There's Hope for Colombia. Yes, Colombia.
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Aug 18, 2015
Investors see the problems, but also a bright side.

Why Greece Can't Fulfill Bailout's Terms
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Aug 18, 2015
The government will never collect enough taxes.

China’s Daring Depreciation
Yu Yongding (Project Syndicate) Aug 18, 2015
While China's central bank devalued the renminbi earlier this month, many foreign commentators, viewing the move as a blatant attempt to boost Chinese exports, warned that a new round of currency wars was coming. But there are good reasons to believe that the move was not intended to boost trade competitiveness.

India’s Deadly Cities
Asit K. Biswas and Kris Hartley (Project Syndicate) Aug 18, 2015
China and India face similar challenges in managing rapidly growing urban populations. But variations in their urban growth paths, as well as differences in their approaches to environmental policy, are likely to make India’s population challenges far more difficult to address.

A Balance-Sheet Approach to Fiscal Policy
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Aug 18, 2015
Current fiscal-policy debates are based on flawed thinking about debt. It is time to stop focusing on nominal debt-to-GDP ratios, and instead promote a long-term balance-sheet-oriented approach to public spending.

Why the UK Belongs in Europe
Charles Tannock (Project Syndicate) Aug 18, 2015
A referendum on the UK’s membership in the EU may be less than a year away. At issue is not just the country’s relationship with its neighbors across the Channel, but also its proper position on the international stage.

How similar is Chinese investment in Africa to the West’s?
Wenjie Chen, David Dollar and Heiwai Tang (Brookings) Aug 18, 2015
Other things equal, Western investment is concentrated in African countries with better property rights and rule of law.

China's Crisis: The Price of Change
Rodger Baker (Stratfor) Aug 18, 2015
Last week was an eventful one for China.

Wealth and income distribution: New theories needed for a new era
Ravi Kanbur & Joseph Stiglitz (VoxEU) Aug 18, 2015
Growth theories traditionally focus on the Kaldor-Kuznets stylised facts. Ravi Kanbur and Nobelist Joe Stiglitz argue that these no longer hold; new theory is needed. The new models need to drop competitive marginal productivity theories of factor returns in favour of rent-generating mechanism and wealth inequality by focusing on the ‘rules of the game.’ They also must model interactions among physical, financial, and human capital that influence the level and evolution of inequality. A third key component will be to capture mechanisms that transmit inequality from generation to generation.

Najib is too powerful for Malaysia’s good Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Aug 19, 2015
Once a model of development, the country’s reputation is sinking and so is that of the PM.

The myth of the robot job-ocalypse Financial Times Subscription Required
Tim Harford (FT) Aug 19, 2015
Blaming cyborgs instead of bankers and politicians is easy.

Norway feels the Arctic chill Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Milne (FT) Aug 19, 2015
With the oil price low and exploration projects on ice, concerns for the economy are growing.

China: Weakened foundations Financial Times Subscription Required
Jamil Anderlini (FT) Aug 19, 2015
Facing an economic slowdown, and with policy options running low, Beijing’s leaders broke an old taboo and devalued the renminbi.

Europe’s warning for the U.S. on jobs
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Aug 19, 2015
If you price labor too high, businesses will slow or stop hiring.

Keeping the Bubble-Boom Going
Thorsten Polleit (Mises Daily) Aug 19, 2015
The US Federal Reserve is playing with the idea of raising interest rates, possibly as early as September this year.

China Wants Great Power, Not Great Responsibility
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 19, 2015
The problem with 'It's our currency, but it's your problem.'

India's Banks Need the Tools to Get Tough
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Aug 19, 2015
To reduce the bad-loan problem, defaulters need to pay a price.

The Better Corporation
Lucy P. Marcus (Project Syndicate) Aug 19, 2015
Around the world, the corporate governance landscape is shifting, as efforts to improve business practices and policies gain support and momentum. The wave of reform has become visible everywhere, and, fueled by three developments, it is sure to continue to rise.

The Value of China’s Devaluation
Benjamin J. Cohen (Project Syndicate) Aug 19, 2015
Much of the reaction to China's recent decision to devalue the renminbi was excessive and irrational. Far from initiating a currency war, China was merely advancing its long-term goal of turning the renminbi into an international reserve currency.

China’s Debt Termites
Gene Frieda (Project Syndicate) Aug 19, 2015
Because China's credit system has been designed around implicit state guarantees, much of the financing is misallocated to the economy’s less efficient, highly indebted sectors. As a result, the foundations of China’s growth miracle are steadily being eroded by a debt overhang that shows few signs of receding.

Brazil cleans up act, so should Mexico Financial Times Subscription Required
John Paul Rathbone (FT) Aug 20, 2015
Brazil seems to realise that standards have shifted, Mexico does not.

Productivity dilemma for Fed Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Aug 20, 2015
Slowdown flies in the face of popular belief that the western world is undergoing a technology boom.

China technocrats are accident-prone, too Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Schuman (FT) Aug 20, 2015
As long as the economy is as the party wishes, it turns a blind eye to risk.

Clock is ticking on US equity correction Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Aug 20, 2015
Investors appear sanguine given slowing China and likely rate rise.

From Russia to Iran, the consequences of the global oil bust
Fareed Zakaria (WP) Aug 20, 2015
Oil prices are falling at a speed that might produce enormous turmoil and uncertainty. Read full column »

UK: Currency Markets and the Price of Independence
Robert Bischof (Globalist) Aug 20, 2015
It is clear that Britain will not join the Euro – not now and probably not ever.

Nicaragua Keeps Dreaming of a Canal
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Aug 20, 2015
But the country doubts a Chinese billionaire's promise to build one.

Why the Fed Is Wishy-Washy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Aug 20, 2015
The data it needs to make a decision is a muddle.

Kazakhstan Is the Latest Oil-Curse Casualty
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Aug 20, 2015
The former Central Asian tiger plans a timeout from big showcase projects.

High Risk, High Returns? Not Quite.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Aug 20, 2015
If anything, it's just the opposite.

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to $80 Oil
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Aug 20, 2015
Supply still exceeds demand, and Iran could make it worse.

The Authoritarian Temptation
Nina L. Khrushcheva (Project Syndicate) Aug 20, 2015
The paradox of democracy today is that, with people’s material expectations largely met, citizens in many countries – including Hungary, Russia, and Turkey – have increasingly voted for neo-authoritarian defenders of stability and national sovereignty. This trend will not reverse until voters see that prosperity requires freedom.

A short-run view of what computers do
Paul Gaggl and Greg C. Wright (VoxEU) Aug 20, 2015
Investments in ICT could affect different types of workers within the firm in a different way. This column shows that firms that invest in ICT reorganise their production processes in a way to raise the productivity of workers who perform complex, cognitive-intensive works. This ICT investment and firm reorganisation has little effect on other types of workers.

The sun is shining again: European banks rebound
Jan Schildbach (DB Research) Aug 21, 2015
After literally seven lean years, the European banking industry’s recovery from the financial crisis is now in full swing. Profits are at their highest level since 2007, revenues are growing across the board (helped by favourable currency effects) and loan losses are falling. Banks are also expanding business volumes. Capital ratios are on average substantially above Basel III requirements, though uncertainty has increased recently due to a pending further regulatory tightening (“Basel IV”).

The Global Economy Is Looking Very 1990s
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Aug 21, 2015
But hold the nostalgia until it's clear if this is good or bad.

An Election that Should Strengthen Tsipras's Hand
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Aug 21, 2015
For the third time this year, Greek voters will be going the polls, this time to elect a new Parliament on September 20 in the wake of the €86 billion bailout accord with European creditors and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's resignation. But the most likely outcome for this election will be to strengthen Tsipras's hand in carrying out the tough terms of the bailout.

A Brutal Week in Markets, But What Comes Next?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Aug 21, 2015
Just don't count on central banks to deliver a boost this time.

A New Chance for Cyprus
Martti Ahtisaari, Emma Bonino, Albert Rohan, Nathalie Tocci (Project Syndicate) Aug 21, 2015
The Greek crisis may seem unending, but there are hints that a problem festering in Europe for even longer – the division of Cyprus – may be moving toward resolution. For the first time since 2004, there is a fragile alignment of the political stars over the eastern Mediterranean.

The Real Demographic Challenge
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Aug 21, 2015
Those who warn that huge economic problems lie ahead for aging rich countries are focused on the wrong issue. Population aging in advanced economies is the manageable consequence of positive developments, whereas rapid population growth in many poorer countries still poses a severe threat to human welfare.

The UN at 70
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Aug 21, 2015
Next month's meeting of world leaders at the United Nations' headquarters in New York will mark the organization's 70th anniversary. But, though the UN remains the best bargain on the planet, it must be upgraded in three key ways if it is to continue to play its unique and vital global role.

The New “Two Chinas” Question
Richard N. Haass (Project Syndicate) Aug 21, 2015
Is China best understood as a strong country, with a promising future despite some short-term difficulties, or as a country facing serious structural problems and uncertain long-term prospects? Until recently, that question seemed out of place; now it has become unavoidable.

Does Capitalism Cause Poverty?
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Aug 21, 2015
Pope Francis recently called capitalism "intolerable." But are the problems that Francis rightly highlights really the consequence of an excess of “unbridled capitalism,” or are they caused by bridling capitalism in the wrong way?

Currency Devaluation Is a Short Step in China’s Long Advance New York Times Subscription Required
Jeff Sommer (NYT) Aug 22, 2015
A modest devaluation of the renminbi, part of China’s decades-long transformation into a modern economy, may help the country stave off domestic pressures.

Asia’s new family values Economist Subscription Required
Economist Aug 22, 2015
Europe shows how Asia’s demographic crisis might correct itself.

A Moveable Glut New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Aug 23, 2015
What happens when too much money is chasing too few investment opportunities.

Region will suffer from Venezuela failure Financial Times Subscription Required
Daniel Lansberg-Rodríguez (FT) Aug 23, 2015
Caracas has refused to respond to economic collapse.

Fed looks set to make a dangerous mistake Financial Times Subscription Required
Lawrence Summers (FT) Aug 23, 2015
Raising rates this year will threaten all of the central bank’s major objectives.

The Chinese model is nearing its end Financial Times Subscription Required
George Magnus (FT) Aug 23, 2015
The country is now going through a crisis of transition, unparalleled since Deng Xiaoping.

Investing: Whatever the weather? Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender and Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Aug 23, 2015
A ‘risk parity’ strategy designed by Ray Dalio faces a stiff test when the Fed raises rates.

Robots Don’t Mean the End of Human Labor Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Lewis M. Andrews (WSJ) Aug 23, 2015
The left frets about the impact of technology, but new jobs will be created. The real problem is bad schools.

Greece and the Global Sell-Off Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Holman Jenkins (WSJ) Aug 23, 2015
One reason growth hopes are unraveling is Europe’s failure to get serious about its bigger troubles.

Towards a Europe of Symmetry, Solidarity, and Opportunity
Angel Ubide (El Pais/PIIE) Aug 23, 2015
The euro area crisis has revealed a sad reality. The process of monetary union should have generated economic convergence and political rapprochement and a sense of European citizenship.

The Method in the Market’s Madness
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) Aug 23, 2015
After months of being stuck in a comfortable trading range, why did the stock market suddenly crack?

If Mao still ran China, China would still be poor
Paul Hubbard (EAF) Aug 23, 2015
Reading the latest Chinese growth projections to 2050 brings to mind Karl Marx’s aphorism that history repeats itself first as tragedy, second as farce.

Hong Kong Can't Escape the Turmoil Next Door
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 23, 2015
China is strangling its own golden goose.

Unlocking Africa’s Trade Potential
Michael Froman and Dana J. Hyde (Project Syndicate) Aug 23, 2015
Earlier this summer, the US Congress reauthorized the African Growth and Opportunity Act for another ten years. To make the most of this extension – the longest in the program’s history – the US and its African partners need to start working toward a more comprehensive partnership.

Raise rates to protect financial system Financial Times Subscription Required
Avinash Persaud (FT) Aug 24, 2015
Monetary policy cannot just react to inflation data to promote stability.

Corporate Japan should open up more Financial Times Subscription Required
Barbara Judge (FT) Aug 24, 2015
Appointing foreigners means extra scrutiny for Japanese companies.

China woes increase risk of Fed mistake Financial Times Subscription Required
David Riley (FT) Aug 24, 2015
Deflationary winds from China and commodities are intensifying.

Germany: Young people wanted Financial Times Subscription Required
Stefan Wagstyl (FT) Aug 24, 2015
The country’s ageing population is threatening its position as Europe’s largest economy.

Why the Stock Market Is So Turbulent New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Aug 24, 2015
This turmoil started in China, but it now includes key factors like oil prices, emerging markets and the Federal Reserve

The Man Who Got China Right New York Times Subscription Required
Joe Nocera (NYT) Aug 24, 2015
How did a famed short-seller see troubles in China’s markets that no one else did?

China's Economic Stress Test Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Aug 24, 2015
Capital outflows are making it harder to sustain rapid growth.

China slowdown highlights importance of reforming during peaks, not troughs
Brian Caplen (The Banker) Aug 24, 2015
The slowdown in China is hitting export-dependent emerging economies hard. It is those that planned for the bad times during the good, however, that will suffer the least.

Are China’s GDP Numbers Believable?
Eric Tegler (Diplomat) Aug 24, 2015
Experts debate the accuracy of China's official growth figures. Are the numbers fact – or fiction?

What to Expect From the Fed's Jackson Hole Meeting
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Aug 24, 2015
Policy makers have run out of tools to boost the economy.

Who Stands to Lose in Emerging Markets
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Aug 24, 2015
Banks in Spain, the U.K. and Taiwan are vulnerable.

Why Oil-Producing Countries Keep on Pumping
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Aug 24, 2015
Russia, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. all have their own reasons.

Steel Production Falls, Stock Markets Follow
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Aug 24, 2015
It's the real economy, not equities, that should have you worried.

Why Stock Prices Fall, Rise or Both
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Aug 24, 2015
Markets wouldn't work if all they did was go up.

Anatomy of a Market Selloff
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Aug 24, 2015
The dynamic is familiar, but a different response is needed.

Asia Should Call Truce on Currency War
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 24, 2015
Four reasons to think twice about devaluing.

Some Good Things About Crashes
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Aug 24, 2015
Hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth destruction isn't all bad.

The Market’s Justified Fall
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Aug 24, 2015
Global stock markets, which had risen sharply during a prolonged period of easy money, needed to fall to reflect reality.

Economic Forecasts in the Age of Big Data
Tara M. Sinclair (Project Syndicate) Aug 24, 2015
Economists, policymakers, and business leaders need better data on which to base their forecasts. Fortunately, new sources of information about the economy have recently emerged: the vast collections of private data collected by search engines and other Internet companies.

A Radioactive Bank to be Welcomed
Gareth Evans (Project Syndicate) Aug 24, 2015
On August 27, Kazakhstan will launch a major new international fuel bank, which it will operate on behalf of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The new facility should once and for all remove the main excuse that has been advanced, sincerely or not, for building and maintaining homegrown enrichment capability.

Europe’s Migration Paralysis
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) Aug 24, 2015
While hundreds of migrants have drowned in the Mediterranean Sea this summer, voices have emerged in almost every corner of Europe calling for isolation, mass deportations, and new walls and fences. For their own sake, Europeans should stop treating migrants as a threat and start viewing them as an opportunity.

The Emerging-Market Currency Rout
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Aug 24, 2015
With the currencies of Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, Colombia, and Chile hitting record lows last week, currency traders around the world are asking how much lower emerging-market currencies can go. The answer is: Quite a lot.

Back from the brink: Policy reform and debt relief in Greece
William R. Cline (VoxEU) Aug 24, 2015
Economists continue to debate whether – and to what extent – Greek debts should be relieved. This column takes through the details of Greek debt, what relief options are open to Greece, and what the likely consequences of relief might be for all parties. Yet again, there are no easy choices – but that doesn’t mean economists and policymakers shouldn’t try.

Why worries about China make sense Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Aug 25, 2015
The question is over a shift to a consumption-dominated economy.

Raise rates to protect financial system Financial Times Subscription Required
Avinash Persaud (FT) Aug 25, 2015
Monetary policy cannot just react to inflation data to promote stability.

Investment banking: Titans retreat Financial Times Subscription Required
Laura Noonan (FT) Aug 25, 2015
Post crisis, the biggest players turn to less risky activities, but those left still make good returns.

Political Risks May Foil Economic Reform in China New York Times Subscription Required
Eduardo Porter (NYT) Aug 25, 2015
There is scant historical evidence that an authoritarian, undemocratic government like China's could pull off the kinds of reforms it is being called on to make.

False Alarm on a Crisis in China
Nicholas R. Lardy (NYT) Aug 25, 2015
Relax. What we're seeing isn't a meltdown, it's an overdue correction.

China’s Meltdown Spells Even More Peril for Petro-States Foreign Policy Subscription Required
Keith Johnson (FP) Aug 25, 2015
Oil prices were already fighting a massive hangover. Now, market convulsions in China threaten oil-dependent regimes from Russia to Venezuela.

Three questions (and answers) about finance and firms
Tatiana Didier, Ross Levine and Sergio Schmukler (VoxEU) Aug 25, 2015
It is still not clear which firms issue equity and bonds, what happens to their assets, sales, and employment, and how the performance of issuers compares to that of non-issuers. This column addresses these three questions. First, only a small number of large firms issue securities in a typical country. Second, issuers grow faster than non-issuers in terms of assets, sales, and employment. Third, smaller issuing firms grow faster than larger ones, but larger non-issuing firms grow faster than smaller ones.

Reliving the Crash of '29
Murray N. Rothbard (Mises Daily) Aug 25, 2015
A half-century ago, America — and then the world — was rocked by a mighty stock-market crash that soon turned into the steepest and longest-lasting depression of all time.

How Silver Wrecked China
Stephen Mihm (Bloomberg View) Aug 25, 2015
In the 1930s, it was U.S. policy affecting Beijing, not the other way around.

It's Often a Curse to Be Blessed With Commodities
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Aug 25, 2015
Lots of oil and other resources tend to stifle healthy growth.

Panicked Markets Need a Timeout on China
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 25, 2015
Tantrums won't help Beijing's push for economic reforms.

Ukraine Is Too Corrupt for Debt Deal to Work
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Aug 25, 2015
Investors' haircut matters less than tackling the shadow economy.

China’s Complexity Problem
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Aug 25, 2015
There are many moving parts – economic, social, and geopolitical – in China’s daunting transition to what its leaders call a moderately well-off society, and the ultimate challenge may lie in managing the exceedingly complex interplay among them. Is China’s leadership up to the task, or has it bitten off more than it can chew?

Central Bank Confidential
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Aug 25, 2015
Over the past two decades, countries around the world have recognized the importance of central banks' independence. In truth, however, there are many degrees of independence, and not all nominally independent central banks operate in the same way – as a new initiative by the Bank of England demonstrates.

Development’s Digital Divide
Carl Bildt (Project Syndicate) Aug 25, 2015
On September 25, world leaders will gather in New York to adopt the new Sustainable Development Goals. And yet, in a time of profound scientific and technological change, the SDGs remain remarkably conventional.

China Meltdown Leaves Global Carmakers Burned
Edward Niedermeyer (Bloomberg View) Aug 25, 2015
World's biggest car market has world's biggest supply glut.

China's 20 Percent Problem Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Damien Ma (FA) Aug 25, 2015
Millennial migrants' discontent.

Currency storms create investment opening Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Aug 26, 2015
In the market washouts, good names get flushed out with the bad.

Make up your mind on banking regulation Financial Times Subscription Required
Simon Samuels (FT) Aug 26, 2015
Nothing matters more to a bank than how much capital they must have.

China’s policies leave the world reeling Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Aug 26, 2015
The sense of panic is exacerbated by mixed messages — take the exchange rate.

China Falters, and the Global Economy Is Forced to Adapt New York Times Subscription Required
Keith Bradsher (NYT) Aug 27, 2015
With deepening economic fears about China, multinational corporations and countries are having to respond to a new reality as a once sure bet becomes uncertain.

Behind the commodities bust
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Aug 26, 2015
The stock market swoon reflects a larger truth: The commodity boom artificially increased past growth.

The TPP: Almost There
Jeffrey J. Schott (Americas Quarterly/PIIE) Aug 26, 2015
It took more than five years, but the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is now near the finish line. Congressional passage of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) earlier this summer gave US officials the mandate to conclude the TPP talks and revived procedures to expedite its ratification.

Where China Goes From Here
Bloomberg View Aug 26, 2015
The government is paying the price for its half-hearted reform.

China's Central Bank Won't Do Beijing's Dirty Work
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 26, 2015
Xi Jinping can't get out of his share of economic reform.

A Tale of Two Liquidities
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Aug 26, 2015
It is the best of times, it is the worst of times, for bond market liquidity.

Germany Can Lead the Immigration Debate
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Aug 26, 2015
Starting with a hard look at the hard numbers.

Are Europe's Debt Wars Religious?
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Aug 26, 2015
One official quipped that attitudes to debt are determined by religion. He's kind of right.

China Is Crashing. Don't Freak, America
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Aug 26, 2015
Remember Japan's early '90s meltdown? The U.S. did great after that.

Fed Has Bigger Worries Than China
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Aug 26, 2015
Monetary conditions are already starting to tighten.

Europe’s Nationalist Night Watch
Dominique Moisi (Project Syndicate) Aug 26, 2015
Europeans are increasingly glorifying the past to compensate for the disillusion and frustration of the present and the uncertainty of the future. Sixty years ago, a return to the past was precisely what European countries sought to avoid.

Automation, Productivity, and Growth
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Aug 26, 2015
It seems obvious that if a business invests in automation, its workforce – though possibly reduced – will be more productive. So why do the statistics in advanced countries tell a different story?

What Should China Do?
Michael J. Boskin (Project Syndicate) Aug 26, 2015
China’s government has a lot on its plate as it attempts to ease the short-term effects of an economic slowdown while implementing reforms aimed at smoothing the shift to a new growth model. The main danger, glimpsed in the authorities' ham-fisted response to the recent fall in equity prices, is a reversion to greater state control.

The Future is Old
Brigitte Miksa (Project Syndicate) Aug 26, 2015
Rising life expectancy around the world is an accomplishment well worth celebrating. But it is worth remembering that societal aging comes with significant long-term economic consequences – and that many societies are aging at an unprecedentedly rapid pace.

Diplomacy at the Top of the World
James F. Collins, Ross A. Virginia and Kenneth S. Yalowitz (Project Syndicate) Aug 26, 2015
Geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West have been running high in recent years, but there remain areas where constructive cooperation and dialogue remain possible. These include issues critical to the Arctic, such as maritime safety, energy development, responses to oil spills, and fisheries management.

How China's Currency Policies Will Change the World
Stratfor Aug 26, 2015
The recent fluctuations in China's currency typify the best and worst of a globalized world, where developments in one place can instantly change the political and financial calculations of governments in others

Africa at a fork in the road: Taking off or disappointment once again?
Ernesto Zedillo (VoxEU) Aug 26, 2015
There are reasons to be both optimistic and troubled about Africa’s development prospects. This column highlights both perspectives – African economies have come a long way and, although nobody dismisses the role of favourable external conditions, much credit is due to domestic conditions and decisions. The most pressing transformation that is needed remains the strengthening, and in some cases building, of the institutions required for lasting development.

China devaluation stirs deflation fears Financial Times Subscription Required
Laurence Mutkin (FT) Aug 27, 2015
Concern reflected in falling long-term bond yields and inflation expectations.

The wild world of robot investing Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Aug 27, 2015
Automated computer programs have changed how markets function.

Emerging Market Rip Tide
WSJ Aug 27, 2015
The U.S. Federal Reserve bank encouraged malinvestment that is hurting global growth.

Using financial sticks to control Iran
Juan Zarate & Chip Poncy (WP) Aug 27, 2015
Employed properly, economic power can effectively isolate rogue Iranian activity.

Why Devaluing the Yuan Won't Help China's Economy
Frank Shostak (Mises Daily) Aug 27, 2015
Earlier this month, the Chinese government decided to depreciate its currency on three consecutive occasions. On August 13, the price of the US dollar was trading at 6.413 — an increase of 3.3 percent against July.

The Bush Leaguers of Beijing Foreign Policy Subscription Required
Paola Subacchi (FP) Aug 27, 2015
The current market turmoil shows that China has become a central player in the global economy. But its leaders might not be ready.

Should We Be Worried About Japan’s Economy, Too? Foreign Policy Subscription Required
William Sposato (FP) Aug 27, 2015
Amid China’s stock market woes, how worried should we be about Japan’s lackluster economy?

Why QE4 Isn't in the Cards
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Aug 27, 2015
Four reasons the markets will have to go it alone this time.

Economic Inequality Is Not Immoral
Harry G. Frankfurt (Bloomberg View) Aug 27, 2015
Comparisons with others don't teach you anything about yourself.

Ukraine's Debt Deal Is a Draw
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Aug 27, 2015
Creditors lost practically nothing, and major problems are unsolved.

How Hugo Chavez Trashed Latin America's Richest Economy
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Aug 27, 2015
He overspent and crippled Venezuela's oil industry.

Japan's Central Bank Is China's Biggest Cheerleader
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 27, 2015
Tokyo is desperate to keep its biggest growth engine running.

Another Great Leap Forward for Development
Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) Aug 27, 2015
Next month, the world will achieve a milestone for global development efforts. The UN General Assembly will adopt the Sustainable Development Goals, an ambitious set of global objectives expected to improve the lives of millions of people by 2030.

A Financial Early-Warning System
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Aug 27, 2015
Recent market volatility – in emerging and developed economies alike – is showing once again how badly ratings agencies and investors can err in assessing countries’ economic and financial vulnerabilities. More than ever, the world needs an early-warning system for financial tsunamis.

Europe's New Economic Divide
Chris Miller (YaleGlobal) Aug 27, 2015
Europe still wrestles over how to resolve the debt crisis in Greece. The managing director of the International Monetary Fund warned this month that Greece’s debt remains unsustainable, and she urged the country’s European partners to prepare to provide significant relief. “Few voters anywhere in Europe are excited about bailing out Greece’s government,” writes Chris Miller, Yale doctoral student and a research associate at the Hoover Institution.

The Problems of the Eurozone
Jan-Werner Müller (LRB) Aug 27, 2015
Never before have the struggles among national elites been as visible to the public as they were in the early weeks of this summer, when Greece almost left – or was made to leave – the Eurozone. Never before has an assertion of national popular will, as expressed in the Greek referendum of 5 July, been flouted so thoroughly and so quickly by the enforcers of European economic orthodoxy. Never before have the flaws of the Eurozone been so clearly exposed.

Depreciations without exports
Swarnali Ahmed, Maximiliano Appendino and Michele Ruta (VoxEU) Aug 27, 2015
The export-less depreciation of the yen has opened a debate on the power of exchange rates to boost exports. This column presents new evidence on how the exchange rate elasticity of exports has changed over time and across countries, and how global value chains have affected it. The upshot is that greater integration in global value chains makes exports substantially less responsive to exchange rate depreciations.

Look at China’s politics not the economics Financial Times Subscription Required
Bill Emmott (FT) Aug 28, 2015
In all the noise and debate, the stock market crash raises three big questions.

QE Is Debt Cancellation
Richard Duncan (Globalist) Aug 28, 2015
The United States, the UK and Japan have far less government debt than is generally understood.

The Fed's Goldilocks Problem
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Aug 28, 2015
The central bank wants markets to get used to a little more churn, but not too much more.

Why the Fed Should Postpone Rate Hikes
Anders Borg (Project Syndicate) Aug 28, 2015
As central bankers from around the world gather this week in Jackson Hole for the Federal Reserve’s annual Economic Policy Symposium, one key topic of discussion will be the current global stock-market turmoil. But financial volatility is only one reason why the Fed should not raise interest rates this year.

Cheap Oil and Global Growth
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Aug 28, 2015
The standard explanation is weak Chinese demand, with the oil-price collapse widely regarded as a portent of recession, either in China or for the entire global economy. But this is almost certainly wrong: On all recent occasions when the oil price was halved, faster global growth followed.

China’s Political Interventions
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Aug 28, 2015
In a planned economy like China’s, where policymakers use various tools to influence asset prices, the instability that arises from overvalued assets could, in theory, be avoided. But, in practice, that does not seem to be the case.

The US Still Runs the World
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Aug 28, 2015
China does not run the world; and, with doubts about its economy's long-term prospects now rattling stock markets worldwide, it appears unlikely to do so anytime soon. From trade to monetary policy, the potential for global leadership still rests with the US.

A Cautionary History of US Monetary Tightening
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Aug 28, 2015
The US Federal Reserve has tightened monetary policy four times in the past 40 years, and all four time the impact on the economy was more harmful than expected. As the Fed prepares to tighten monetary policy once again, an examination of this history suggests that the US is about to enter dangerous territory.

Central bank independence before and after the Great Recession
Donato Masciandaro and Davide Romelli (VoxEU) Aug 28, 2015
Since the onset of the Global Crisis, a number of central bank reforms have been implemented. This column suggests that since the Crisis, a silent restoration towards lower central bank independence might have been in place. The trend is more pronounced in non-OECD countries and, in particular, for the level of operational independence. The findings suggest that governments might be willing to trade off central bank independence to cope with concerns regarding financial stability, high debt and unemployment levels.

China and the world economy: Taking a tumble Economist Subscription Required
Economist Aug 29, 2015
Stockmarket turmoil in China need not spell economic doom. But it does raise questions far beyond the country’s shores.

Financial markets: The Great Fall of China Economist Subscription Required
Economist Aug 29, 2015
Fear about China’s economy can be overdone. But investors are right to be nervous.

Global Texas: More Than Dumb Luck
Richard Parker (Globalist) Aug 29, 2015
In the age of globalization, Texas found itself at the right spot at the right time.

Economic prosperity breeds trust
Markus Brückner, Alberto Chong, Mark Gradstein (VoxEU) Aug 29, 2015
Economists have been exploring the relationship between prosperity and trust since the 1950s. This column explores the possible relationships, arguing that enhanced economic prosperity acts as a signal that fellow citizens are trustworthy. The more optimistic assessment then breeds trust among individual citizens. This theory suggests the possibility of a mutual feedback between trust and economic growth.

Asia more of a threat to Europe than US Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephanie Flanders (FT) Aug 30, 2015
China’s market rumbles highlight the limits of a more aggressive ECB.

China’s problem is the economy itself Financial Times Subscription Required
David Daokui Li (FT) Aug 30, 2015
A targeted pinprick approach is needed, not a vast stimulus

Globalization at warp speed
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Aug 30, 2015
Large, unexpected events can trigger panic buying and selling by investors at keyboards.

India’s role in Asia may not fit ‘Indo-Pacific’ agenda
Hugh White (EAF) Aug 30, 2015
Many observers tend to assume that India will play a large and growing part as a great power in a wider ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategic system, that it will use its growing power to balance and limit China’s regional weight. But some caution is called for — although this outcome is possible, it is far from inevitable.

What If 2008 Crisis Comes Around Again?
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Aug 30, 2015
The political will for a response may not be there this time.

China’s caravan parks defy economic fears Financial Times Subscription Required
Patti Waldmeir (FT) Aug 31, 2015
As the west panics about growth, the Chinese are out enjoying themselves.

Stakes high as Big Four push for M&A work Financial Times Subscription Required
Sujeet Indap (FT) Aug 31, 2015
Professional services groups are aggressively luring bankers.

Central bank arsenal is losing its bite Financial Times Subscription Required
Alberto Gallo (FT) Aug 31, 2015
Structural forces limiting growth and inflation are not being addressed.

Emerging markets: Fixing a broken model Financial Times Subscription Required
James Kynge and Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Aug 31, 2015
As exports slow and foreign capital takes flight, developing nations must act to avert a crisis.

The Saudis Gambled and Texas Won Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Glenn Hegar (WSJ) Aug 31, 2015
Energy innovators across the U.S. will always beat those who bet against capitalism.

China blames a different bogeyman each time the economy stumbles
Catherine Rampell (WP) Aug 31, 2015
But the country’s rulers never, ever blame poor governance.

More Evidence that Global Economic Inequality is Decreasing
Daniel Fernández Méndez (Mises Daily) Aug 31, 2015
Over time, the claim that there is increasing income inequality globally has looked increasingly like a fairy tale.

Ben Bernanke, the Law Breaker? The Fed’s “Other” Rate Dilemma
Stuart Parkinson (Globalist) Aug 31, 2015
A look at the unconventional policy measures of the Federal Reserve.

Easy Money Creates the Most Dangerous Bubbles
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Aug 31, 2015
Economists increasingly recognize the role debt plays in financial disasters.

Maybe This Global Slowdown Is Different
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Aug 31, 2015
Slower population growth and consumption point to a major shift.

China Has Lots of Treasuries, Not Much Leverage
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Aug 31, 2015
Three reasons not to fear a big selloff of U.S. debt.

The Price of European Indifference
Bernard-Henri Lévy (Project Syndicate) Aug 31, 2015
Europe’s migration debate has taken a disturbing turn, propelled by a multitude of myths, manipulations, and blatant lies. The consequences will be devastating, not only for the people desperately trying to escape oppression, terror, and massacre, but also for Europe itself.

A Tale of Two Theories
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Aug 31, 2015
Global growth continues to disappoint, with the IMF once again downgrading its forecast for this year. Is "secular stagnation" the cause, or is the monetary stimulus being used to fight that stagnation to blame?

Will Americans Become Poorer?
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Aug 31, 2015
Robert Gordon of Northwestern University has launched a lively and important debate about the future rate of US economic growth. But, though Gordon's gloomy assessment of America’s growth prospects deserves to be taken seriously, there are good reasons to reject his argument.

Migration Beyond Crisis Mode
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Aug 31, 2015
Over the past seven years, Europe has been in crisis mode almost without interruption, implementing stop-gap measures accompanied by empty or hyperbolic rhetoric. This approach is not nearly enough to address the current migration challenge, which will not be resolved in the foreseeable future.

Dynasties versus development
Jan Frederick P. Cruz, Ronald U Mendoza (VoxEU) Aug 31, 2015
Clinton. Bush. Kennedy. Political family dynasties have survived the establishment of democracies in the developed and developing world and, in some cases, are strengthening. This column argues that political dynasties are still with us, and that it’s fairly easy to see why. Whoever said that elections are the only time that the vote of the richest citizen is equivalent to that of the poorest needs to start rethinking whether this still holds true.

The state of the monetary union
Thomas Philippon (VoxEU) Aug 31, 2015
The Eurozone crisis continues to take centre stage. This column discusses how deep the EZ crisis is, how long it will last, and what should be the policy priorities. A number of findings emerge. First, the difference in labour market performance between the US and the Eurozone is one of degree but not of kind. Second, the economic consequences of the sovereign debt crisis will be mostly gone by 2018, but the political crisis will continue. Third, enforcing fiscal rules via political arm twisting is a recipe for disaster. Market discipline must instead be brought back, but without financial fragmentation. Limited and conditional Eurobonds are the best way to do so.

Oil Export Momentum Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Sep 1, 2015
Support is growing to repeal a Nixon-era ban that Iran and Russia love.

China’s Crackdown on Rumors Will Only Hurt Its Economy New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Sep 1, 2015
Jailing people won’t help the broader economy or the financial markets.

Pessimism Pervades Mexico as Economic Promises Fall Short New York Times Subscription Required
Elisabeth Malkin (NYT) Sep 1, 2015
As Enrique Peña Nieto prepares to reboot his presidency, the Mexican economy is being pummeled by forces beyond the government’s control.

China risks an economic discontinuity Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 1, 2015
Many believe the economy is already growing far more slowly than the government admits.

China’s bank questions will not go away Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 1, 2015
Equities debacle means Beijing is no longer seen as infallible.

Why caution rules for EM and commodities Financial Times Subscription Required
John Bilton (FT) Sep 1, 2015
Four themes are at play: US rate rise, China, European recovery and oil.

China’s Crisis Could Get a Lot Worse, Quickly Foreign Policy Subscription Required
Daniel Altman (FP) Sep 1, 2015
China’s financial crisis is far from over, and could take a turn for the worse, writes FP’s Daniel Altman: Read more

National Liberation Fronts: United Against the Euro
Daniel Stelter and Stephan Richter (Globalist) Sep 1, 2015
Why establishment parties in Europe are increasingly left defenseless against a hardening opposition against the euro.

The Fight Against Corruption: On the Home Stretch?
Frank Vogl (Globalist) Sep 1, 2015
Why September 2015 matters much in the global battle on routing out corruption.

How Bad Is China’s Economic Slowdown?
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Sep 1, 2015
There are a number of factors that make it difficult to get a handle on what’s really happening.

Alibaba Is the Canary in China's Coal Mine
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 1, 2015
As the e-commerce giant goes, so goes the country.

It's a Bad Time to Depend on China
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Sep 1, 2015
Beijing is shedding its export-driven growth model.

The Fed Should Raise Rates Already
Lincoln S. Ellis (Bloomberg View) Sep 1, 2015
Easy money has made us all addicted to the stock market.

Call Cease-Fire in the War on Cash
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 1, 2015
Physical money is less efficient, but still useful.

Democratizing the Eurozone
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Sep 1, 2015
Political systems prove their worth by how quickly they put an end to their officials’ serial, mutually reinforcing, policy mistakes. Judged by this standard, the eurozone, comprising 19 well-established democracies, lags behind the largest non-democratic economy in the world.

Who Will Suffer Most from Climate Change?
Bill Gates (Project Syndicate) Sep 1, 2015
For the world’s poorest farmers, life is a high-wire act: Just one stroke of bad fortune – a drought, a flood, or an illness – is enough for them to tumble deeper into poverty and hunger. And now climate change is set to add a fresh layer of risk to their lives, highlighting the need for effective adaptation measures.

Worried About China? Keep Calm as Markets Return to Earth
David Dapice (YaleGlobal) Sep 1, 2015
Stock-market volatility for China and beyond signals reassessment of global risks; investors in transparent markets should not panic

Soft power raises exports
Andrew K Rose (VoxEU) Sep 1, 2015
A nation’s hard power is based on its ability to coerce, while its soft power depends on the attractiveness of its culture, political ideals, and policies. This column shows that a country’s soft power has measureable effects on its exports. Countries that are admired for their positive global influence export more, holding other things constant.

Leveraged bubbles
Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor (VoxEU) Sep 1, 2015
The risk that asset price bubbles pose for financial stability is still not clear. Drawing on 140 years of data, this column argues that leverage is the critical determinant of crisis damage. When fuelled by credit booms, asset price bubbles are associated with high financial crisis risk; upon collapse, they coincide with weaker growth and slower recoveries. Highly leveraged housing bubbles are the worst case of all.

Bean Counters to the Rescue Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Diane Coyle (FA) Sep 1, 2015
Can accounting save capitalism from itself?

Uncertain Times
José Antonio Ocampo (F&D) Sep 1, 2015
After a decade of social and economic progress, Latin America is facing challenging issues.

Most Unequal on Earth
Nora Lustig (F&D) Sep 1, 2015
Latin America is a region of stark income contrasts but has been making progress.

Corruption Matters
Daniel Kaufmann (F&D) Sep 1, 2015
Governance has progressed in a few Latin American countries but corruption still hinders development in the region.

Spill Over
Jiaqian Chen, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, and Ratna Sahay (F&D) Sep 1, 2015
The Federal Reserve’s recent unconventional monetary policies seem to have affected emerging markets more than traditional policies

Fiscal Tightening and Economic Growth: Exploring Cross-Country Correlations Adobe Acrobat Required
Paolo Mauro and Jan Zilinsky (PIIE) Sep 1, 2015
The global financial and economic crisis that began in 2008 has rekindled the debate on the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth. At the outset of the crisis the focus—particularly in the United States—was on whether fiscal stimulus (an expansion in the fiscal deficit) boosts economic growth.

China should welcome its short sellers Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gapper (FT) Sep 2, 2015
Foreign hedge funds are convenient villains in a financial crisis.

A chance for Europe to rescue its integrity Financial Times Subscription Required
Peter Sutherland (FT) Sep 2, 2015
The failure to tackle the refugee crisis has intensified this human disaster.

Malaysia’s economic frailty is too familiar Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Sep 2, 2015
The country is facing comparisons with the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Robots alone will not halt worker decline Financial Times Subscription Required
Diane Coyle (FT) Sep 2, 2015
Leading economies are entering era of an ageing and shrinking workforce.

World faces third deflationary wave Financial Times Subscription Required
Dominic Rossi (FT) Sep 2, 2015
EM crisis means further fall in potential global output is unavoidable.

No Resting on Laurels, European Central Bank Leader Faces New Threats New York Times Subscription Required
Jack Ewing (NYT) Sep 2, 2015
Eurozone growth has improved since the central bank began its stimulus program, but there are new uncertainties in European and global economies.

Ukraine: Costs of conflict Financial Times Subscription Required
Elaine Moore, Roman Olearchyk and Neil Buckley (FT) Sep 2, 2015
A debt deal agreed with the IMF and creditors averted default but the war-torn country’s worries are far from over.

Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Sep 2, 2015
Foreign financial institutions have almost $1 trillion of claims on Chinese counterparties.

Will Oil Cause the Next Recession?
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Sep 2, 2015
Falling crude prices could spark deflation.

Latin America's 100 Years of Slow Growth
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Sep 2, 2015
Blame economic mismanagement, not U.S. imperialism.

How Modi Can Get Back on Track
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Sep 2, 2015
The focus should shift to radical changes that'll benefit the poor, not just the middle class.

Getting Bank Culture Right
Jean-Claude Trichet (Project Syndicate) Sep 2, 2015
Banks and banking rely on trust. But while trust takes years to establish, it can be squandered abruptly if a bank’s ethics are weak, its values poor, and its behavior simply wrong.

Puerto Rico in Crisis
Anne Krueger (Project Syndicate) Sep 2, 2015
Unlike Greece, Puerto Rico is not a country, which means that it is ineligible for multilateral financing; but nor is it a US state. This arrangement, though advantageous in some respects, also implies serious obstacles to the restoration of growth that the island so desperately needs.

Europe Rethinks the Schengen Agreement
Stratfor Sep 2, 2015
Rising immigration and fragile economic recovery in Europe will reduce political support for the Schengen Agreement, which eliminates border controls among member states. The Schengen Agreement will likely be reformed to make room for countries to tighten their border controls more frequently. Friction between Schengen members and other countries will remain, as will tension within the bloc itself.

Six questions about China’s rise from 1953
Anton Cheremukhin, Mikhail Golosov, Sergei Guriev and Aleh Tsyvinski (VoxEU) Sep 2, 2015
Economists tend to focus on reforms that came after 1979 when explaining China’s soaring economic growth. This column argues that they shouldn’t. Mao’s policies also had a huge effect and should not be ignored. Economists and policymakers would do well to look further back in history. A long-term perspective might also help them bust a few myths along the way.

China risks repeating the errors of Japan Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Sep 3, 2015
To see what happens when government tries to prop up stock prices, Tokyo’s story is sobering.

Tech booms are good but do not last Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Waters (FT) Sep 3, 2015
The question is not whether this boom will end, but when and how.

EM corporate ‘carry trade’ revealed Financial Times Subscription Required
Dan McCrum (FT) Sep 3, 2015
BIS paper suggests companies are raising cash in US currency for financial, not commercial, reasons.

How Russia Is Using Chinese Largesse to Circumvent the West's Sanctions
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Sep 3, 2015
China has been energetically touting the benefits of its New Silk Road initiative, which aims to spend $40 billion a year to link Europe and Asia via roads, rail, and water. The stated goal is to open a whole region—Central and South Asia—to the world. The goal, China says, is to cut transport times for many goods by two-thirds, reducing costs.

Why Not to Worry About China (Too Much)
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 3, 2015
The world is better able to withstand a true downturn.

Will Jobs Be the Fed's Tiebreaker on Rate Hike?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 3, 2015
The central bank must weigh the strong U.S. economy against global market turmoil.

Brazil's Political Jungle Swallows Its Economic Superman
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Sep 3, 2015
Finance Minister Joaquim Levy has a plan for Brazil's economy. But is anyone listening?

Globalized Crisis
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Sep 3, 2015
If there is a bright side to the turmoil that has roiled the world economy since 2008, it is that it has not erupted everywhere simultaneously. But, as the crisis becomes ever more global in nature, the challenge for policymakers will be to contain the impulse to reduce engagement with the rest of the world.

Inflation, the Fed, and the Big Picture
Carmen Reinhart (Project Syndicate) Sep 3, 2015
Inflation was the theme of this year’s international conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But, while policymakers are right to prepare for future risks to price stability, they did not place these concerns in the context of recent inflation developments at the global level – or within historical perspective.

IMF to the Aid of Ukraine: Well-Intended, But Misguided
David R. Cameron (YaleGlobal) Sep 3, 2015
Ukraine struggles with separatists, protests, reforms – and an IMF debt deal on shaky ground.

Uncovering myths about China’s investments in Africa
Wenjie Chen, David Dollar and Heiwei Tang (Brookings) Sep 3, 2015
When examining Chinese investment in Africa at the firm level, Wenjie Chen, David Dollar, and Heiwai Tang argue that many of the West's concerns over Chinese investment in Africa may be predicated on myths.

Trade agreements, trade deficits and jobs
Céline Carrère, Anja Grujovic and Frédéric Robert-Nicoud (VoxEU) Sep 3, 2015
When looking at the potential effects of a trade policy, trade economists usually insist on the real income effects, often dismissing its unemployment effects as of second-order importance, whereas policymakers and the public at large tend to voice concerns about jobs gained or lost. This column presents a quantitative framework that weighs both concerns, which is especially important when real incomes and the unemployment rates move in the same direction following a trade reform.

A Silver Lining to Brazil's Troubles New York Times Subscription Required
Joe Nocera (NYT) Sep 4, 2015
The economy is in tatters, but the country's handling of a huge corruption case shows its democracy and judicial institutions are working.

Other People’s Dollars, and Their Place in Global Economics New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Sep 4, 2015
The countries behind greenbacks, Aussies, loonies and kiwis all weathered economic storms better than most of the rest of the world.

Why the Fed Shouldn’t Raise Interest Rates
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Sep 4, 2015
Right now, deflation is arguably a bigger threat than inflation, which is close to zero.

Europe's Economy Needs Action, Not Words
Bloomberg View Sep 4, 2015
Governments need to enact fiscal policy and financial reform.

ECB Should Drop 2% Inflation Fantasy
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 4, 2015
Keeping the target makes the central bank look ineffective.

Why the U.S. Gets the Most Out of Cheap Oil
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Sep 4, 2015
The crude-price slide hasn't done as much for Europe, Japan or anyplace else.

China May Never Get Rich
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Sep 4, 2015
Flawed institutions are likely to hold it back.

China Confronts the Market
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Sep 4, 2015
China’s current economic woes have largely been viewed through a single lens: the government’s failure to let the market operate. But that perspective has led foreign observers to misinterpret this year’s most important developments in the foreign-exchange and stock markets.

A False Alarm About China
Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) Sep 4, 2015
The volatility in Chinese equity prices in recent months has more to do with the peculiarities of the country's stock markets than with underlying economic fundamentals. As long as China continues to pursue pro-market reforms, its economy will thrive in the long term.

The Foundations of Greece’s Failed Economy
Edmund S. Phelps (Project Syndicate) Sep 4, 2015
Too many politicians and economists blame austerity for the collapse of the Greek economy. But the data show neither marked austerity by historical standards nor government cutbacks severe enough to explain the huge job losses; instead, they show economic ills rooted in the values and beliefs of Greek society.

The Art of Capital Flight
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Sep 4, 2015
For emerging-market investors, art has become a critical tool for moving and hiding wealth, which has been a major factor in the spectacular rise in auction prices of the last several years. So, with emerging-market economies from Russia to Brazil mired in recession, and China slowing rapidly, is the art bubble about to burst?

German industry benefits from free trade
Eric Heymann (DB Research) Sep 4, 2015
Free trade stimulates economic activity in all the signatory countries. The free trade agreement between the EU and South Korea is a relatively recent example providing evidence of this fact. In H1 2015, German goods exports to South Korea were up by more than 50% on the level before the agreement came into force in July 2011; by contrast, total German exports increased by merely 13% in the same period. True, German imports from South Korea fell during this period. However, this was due to two sector-specific one-off effects. Stripping out these effects, the imports rose at an above-average pace. The positive economic stimuli should also be a strong argument in support of the current TTIP negotiations.

The Unthinkable as the New Normal Adobe Acrobat Required
Klaus Engelen (TIE) Sep 1, 2015
The international economic organizations established after World War II have destroyed their credibility.

Deflation and money
Hiroshi Yoshikawa, Hideaki Aoyama, Yoshi Fujiwara and Hiroshi Iyetomi (VoxEU) Sep 5, 2015
Deflation is a threat to the macroeconomy. Japan had suffered from deflation for more than a decade, and now, Europe is facing it. To combat deflation under the zero interest bound, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have resorted to quantitative easing, or increasing the money supply. This column explores its effectiveness, through the application of novel methods to distinguish signals from noises.

Financial Leaders Agree to Act to Bolster Growth New York Times Subscription Required
Reuters/NYT Sep 6, 2015
Reliance on ultra-low interest rates alone will not be enough, officials from the world's 20 biggest economies said.

Energy poverty, a needless plight Financial Times Subscription Required
Nick Butler (FT) Sep 6, 2015
China’s success in lifting people from subsistence should be repeated elsewhere.

Capital flight now China’s big concern Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 6, 2015
Question shifts from what it will do with incoming capital.

Africa: Why Economists Get it Wrong Financial Times Subscription Required
Katrina Manson (FT) Sep 6, 2015
A contrarian approach towards the continent’s growth record risks overlooking the obvious.

Russia: Rise, fall, repeat Financial Times Subscription Required
Courtney Weaver (FT) Sep 6, 2015
The banker’s financial empire collapsed this summer. Regulators are starting to see a pattern.

Will China crash?
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Sep 6, 2015
The connection between economics and politics. Read full article »

Indonesia Needs a Reboot
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 6, 2015
Hit by falling commodity prices, the economy could use greater consistency from Jakarta.

Bank bailouts and credit default risks in the Eurozone
Marcel Fratzscher and Malte Rieth (VoxEU) Sep 6, 2015
In response to the Crisis, the ECB provided liquidity to banks on a massive scale and intervened in sovereign debt markets. This column argues that bank bailout policies and non-standard monetary policies by the ECB had a significant impact on default risks of sovereigns and banks in the Eurozone. The results, however, show that neither of the two policies was an unqualified success. Policies which are intended to reduce default risk can therefore have opposite effects if they are not properly designed.

China will stumble if Xi stalls on reform Financial Times Subscription Required
Robert Zoellick (FT) Sep 7, 2015
If Beijing relies on state enterprises it will be favouring special interests.

New rules risk making banks too safe Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Sep 7, 2015
Tough regulations could hit lenders’ profits, spark lay-offs and negatively affect Europe’s economy.

India's Middle-Class Revolt New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Sep 7, 2015
A protest by 500,000 members of a relatively well-off caste is a rebuke of the government's economic policies.

China’s changes will help developed world Financial Times Subscription Required
Diana Choyleva (FT) Sep 7, 2015
Investors should look to buy US equities, particularly on the dip.

The Syriza Dream is Over Financial Times Subscription Required
Denis MacShane (Globalist) Sep 7, 2015
With Tspirpas running out of luck, Krugman and Stiglitz have to find new political champions to promote the cause of economic self-destruction.

China Can’t Sink Us
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) Sep 7, 2015
The Chinese sell-off has pundits worried about a global economic crisis. It shouldn’t.

This Woman Could Revive Japan
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 7, 2015
To fix its economy, Japan should make use of Seiko Noda and its other 63 million underutilized women.

The Crisis of Our Crises
Jeremy Adelman and Anne-Laure Delatte (Project Syndicate) Sep 7, 2015
At first glance, the crises plaguing the world – from Greece's debt drama to Syria's implosion – seem to have little in common. But these events are not unconnected; on the contrary, they stem from a deeper crisis of international integration and cooperation.

The Inclusive Road to Growth
Klaus Schwab and Richard Samans (Project Syndicate) Sep 7, 2015
There is no bigger policy challenge preoccupying leaders around the world than meeting the need to expand participation in the benefits of economic growth and globalization. Adopting a more socially inclusive model of growth will require widening the lens through which priorities are set when shaping national economic strategies.

Fed Up with the Fed
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Sep 7, 2015
Every August, central bankers and financiers from around the world meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This year, the participants were greeted by a large group of mostly young people, who were there not so much to protest as to emphasize to the assembled policymakers that what they do affects ordinary citizens, not just financiers.

Necessary Migrants
Ian Buruma (Project Syndicate) Sep 7, 2015
Though unpopular, economic migration to the European Union from non-EU countries, under carefully managed conditions, is both legitimate and imperative. This is not because the migrants deserve Europeans’ sympathy, but because Europe needs them.

The Eurozone Crisis: A Consensus View of the Causes and a Few Possible Solutions
Richard Baldwin and Francesco Giavazzi (VoxEU) Sep 7, 2015
There is not yet a consensus on what more needs to be done in order to cope with the Eurozone Crisis. This new Vox eBook concerns the causes and possible solutions to the problem. In it, the authors highlight three ultimate causes for the Crisis. First, policy failures allowed the imbalances to become very large. A second cause is the lack of institutions to absorb shocks at the EZ level. The third one is crisis mismanagement.

How to trade the China story, up and down Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 8, 2015
There may be a better investment case for China than the US.

The case for keeping interest rates low Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 8, 2015
After nearly seven years of zero interest rates, the inflation of which critics warned is invisible.

Boom, bust and broken trust mark finance Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) Sep 8, 2015
Managers of other people’s money lack ‘anxious vigilance’ that they might apply to their own cash.

The New Silk Road and Eastern Europe
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Sep 8, 2015
In April 2012, when serving in the Bulgarian government as deputy prime minister and minister of finance, I received an unexpected call from my prime minister: to get on a plane immediately and participate in a China–Eastern Europe economic forum the next morning in Warsaw. The forum was hosted by Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, on the heels of a visit of Chinese premier Wen Jiabao to Western Europe.

The G20 and the interest rate reality
Kevin Carmichael (CIGI) Sep 8, 2015
The Group of 20 has struggled in recent years to maintain its relevancy. But it may have just re-established its worth by laying a foundation for higher interest rates.

Indonesia Refuses to Be Railroaded Into Debt
Adam Minter (Bloomberg View) Sep 8, 2015
Its decision on infrastructure spending sets an example for other developing nations.

Selling Off the State in China
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 8, 2015
Hasty privatizations could breed a new class of oligarchs.

Industrial-Strength Africa
Li Yong (Project Syndicate) Sep 8, 2015
Addressing Europe's ongoing migration crisis, which has already brought close to a quarter-million migrants to the EU's shores this year, requires efforts not only to address instability in source regions, but also to alleviate poverty and create employment. For Africa, industrialization is the key to achieving the latter goal.

Europe Under Siege?
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Sep 8, 2015
Whether they are being exposed to refugees firsthand, or just seeing images of them splashed across newspaper pages, Europeans are well aware of the vast numbers of desperate people trying to enter EU territory by any means possible. But this awareness has yet to translate into a unified response.

India Ends a Retroactive Tax Raid Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Sep 8, 2015
A case study in why Modi’s economic reform effort is struggling.

Do the Math: The Rich Really Are Different
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Sep 8, 2015
Research suggests they're uniquely positioned to steer more money their way.

Britain's Status as a Trading Nation Ties It to Europe
Mark Fleming-Williams (Stratfor) Sep 8, 2015
At some point in the next two years, British voters will decide whether to remain a part of the European Union.

Monetary policy timing means Fed must act Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Fisher (FT) Sep 9, 2015
The idea is to silence the noise in inflation yet leave the signal.

Delhi’s dangerous dream of overtaking China Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Sep 9, 2015
India’s overly inflated statistics are breeding a false sense of security.

TPP Countries Prepare to Regroup in Wake of Hawaii Meeting
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 29 Sep 9, 2015
The 12 Pacific Rim countries working to reach a sweeping trade deal are gearing up with an eye to resuming – and possibly concluding – their negotiations in the coming weeks, officials say, after their ministerial-level meeting in late July that failed to yield a highly-awaited agreement.

"No Time to Waste," Warns New WTO Farm Talks Chair
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 29 Sep 9, 2015
WTO members confirmed on Tuesday the formal appointment of Vangelis Vitalis, New Zealand's ambassador to the global trade body, as the new chair of the organisation's agriculture negotiations.

The Return of the "Ugly German": Unavoidable?
Alexei Bayer (Globalist) Sep 9, 2015
Europe may fear Germany, but the European project needs it.

Migration: Notes on Potential Impact on Europe
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Sep 9, 2015
Domestic policy response matters more than any decision about an initial distribution of migrants.

Why the Greeks Should Repudiate Their Government's Debt
Simon Wilson (Mises Daily) Sep 9, 2015
In apportioning blame for the Greek government debt crisis, it would be difficult not to lay the major share on Greece itself.

A New Chance for Greece
Yannos Papantoniou (Project Syndicate) Sep 9, 2015
On September 20, Greek voters will go to the polls – yet again – in a snap election called by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. After the latest financial rescue – additional money from the country’s creditors in exchange for structural reforms – will Greece, the twenty-first century’s “sick man of Europe,” refuse to take its medicine?

Should Germany Leave the Euro?
Michael Heise (Project Syndicate) Sep 9, 2015
The debate over whether Greece should leave the eurozone has revived the idea that Germany, and other similarly strong economies, would do the rest of the continent a favor if they were the ones to leave the monetary union. It is an idea that is shortsighted, impractical, and economically dubious.

The age of global value chains
João Amador and Filippo di Mauro (VoxEU) Sep 9, 2015
There is an urgent need for policymakers to fully acknowledge the extent to which conventional indicators related to gross trade are severely flawed as policy benchmarks because they fail to take into account the existence of global value chains and their increasing role in shaping the global economy. This column, which introduces a new Vox eBook, urges academics to start proposing workable indicators that are systematically produced and readily available.

China's Freer Market Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
William Adams (FA) Sep 9, 2015
And the tumult it brings.

China's Economic Transformation: Lessons, Impact, and the Path Forward Adobe Acrobat Required Recommended!
Tomas Hellebrandt, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Robert Z. Lawrence, Paolo Mauro, Silvia Merler, Sean Miner, Jeffrey J. Schott, and Nicolas Veron (PIIE) Sep 9, 2015
China's efforts to transition from an economy driven by investment and exports to one based on private consumption and services are roiling global markets. Its problems are compounded by an economic slowdown, rising debt levels, languishing real estate market, and lagging productivity growth.

Berlin should seize second Huguenot moment Financial Times Subscription Required
Guntram Wolff (FT) Sep 10, 2015
Merkel has a chance to turn the refugee crisis into an economic opportunity.

Stuttering countdown to Fed rate lift-off Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Sep 10, 2015
The central bank’s dilemma keeps uneasy markets guessing.

Germany’s road to redemption shines amid Europe’s refugee debate
Fareed Zakaria (WP) Sep 10, 2015
No country has done more to atone for its horrific history.

Seeking Safety Abroad: The Hidden Story in China’s FDI Statistics
Farok J. Contractor (YaleGlobal) Sep 10, 2015
The Chinese prefer investing overseas; dummy companies may ease transfers and devalue renminbi.

Revisiting the Economics of Europe's Refugee Tragedy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 10, 2015
At best, the quota proposal will provide only short-term relief.

The World When the Fed Raises Rates
Martin Feldkircher, Florian Huber and Isabella Moder (Project Syndicate) Sep 10, 2015
This year, for the first time since 2007, every advanced economy in the world is growing – including America’s. And that means that the Federal Reserve, fearful of asset bubbles, will at some point decide that US interest rates must rise. That may be good for the US economy, but what will it mean for the rest of the world?

Realizing the Potential of the Digital Economy
Irving Wladawsky-Berger (Pieria) Sep 10, 2015
While the digital economy promises to help us improve the lives of people around the world, realizing its potential is one of the most important and exciting challenges of the 21st century.

The Business Case for Europe’s Refugees
Lucy P. Marcus (Project Syndicate) Sep 10, 2015
While governments, charities, and donor organizations debate how European countries will share responsibility for the refugees flooding across their borders, European business has been strangely silent. But industry leaders in all sectors owe it to themselves to be involved from the start in managing the influx.

Economists vs. Economics
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Sep 10, 2015
Criticism of economics – for hubris, neglect of social goals beyond incomes, excessive attention to formal techniques, or failure to predict major developments such as financial crises – has usually come from outsiders, or from a heterodox fringe. But lately it seems that even the field’s leaders are unhappy.

The dark side of foreign exchange liquidity
Nina Karnaukh, Angelo Ranaldo and Paul Söderlind (VoxEU) Sep 10, 2015
Understanding foreign exchange markets is key to understanding the global financial system. Yet, a clear understanding of why and how foreign exchange illiquidity materialises is still missing. This column suggests that foreign exchange liquidity can be impaired in times of flight to quality and higher global risk, and that commonality increases in distressed markets.

What do they want?
Claire Melamed (Aeon) Sep 10, 2015
What would happen if the aid industry started collecting data on how the people it serves actually feel about their lives?

Japan’s Economy, Crippled by Caution New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Sep 11, 2015
Respectability creates a trap for policy makers.

Don’t blame Europe for the refugee crisis
Martin Schulz (WP) Sep 10, 2015
E.U. institutions have shown readiness to act, but some member states have resisted acting together. Read full article »

After the Greek Crisis, Euro Elites Dream of a Unified Euro State
Ryan McMaken (Mises Daily) Sep 11, 2015
Following the July 5 “no” vote in Greece against the terms of the negotiated bailout, European elites swore they would no longer negotiate:

Truly a New Economic Order
Uwe Bott (Globalist) Sep 11, 2015
How to operate in a world shaped by a cost crash and a demand lull?

Analyzing the Odds of a Fed Rate Increase
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 11, 2015
The central bank's decision is clouded by some unforeseen consequences.

Is Today's Volatility an Echo of 1987?
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Sep 11, 2015
Similar price swings led to low liquidity just before Black Monday.

Refugee Quota Is Just a First Step
Bloomberg View Sep 11, 2015
The EU must address the causes behind the migrants' rush to Europe.

Greece, the World's Best Investment. No Joke.
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Sep 11, 2015
Since Syriza was elected, nothing's performed better than Greek debt.

Saudis Are Winning the War on Shale
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Sep 11, 2015
They're teaching the market a lesson about U.S. production.

China’s Forex Follies
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Sep 11, 2015
China 2% devaluation of its currency last month was no earth-shattering event, but financial markets responded as if a meteorite had struck them. The negative reaction is no mystery: China’s devaluation was a textbook example of how not to conduct exchange-rate policy.

Cereals, appropriability, and hierarchy
Joram Mayshar, Omer Moav, Zvika Neeman & Luigi Pascali (VoxEU) Sep 11, 2015
Conventional theory suggests that hierarchy and state institutions emerged due to increased productivity following the Neolithic transition to farming. This column argues that these social developments were a result of an increase in the ability of both robbers and the emergent elite to appropriate crops. Hierarchy and state institutions developed, therefore, only in regions where appropriable cereal crops had sufficient productivity advantage over non-appropriable roots and tubers.

Are Western Values Losing Their Sway? New York Times Subscription Required
Steven Erlanger (NYT) Sep 12, 2015
The global embrace of liberal democracy is far from inevitable.

Business in China Economist Subscription Required
Economist Sep 12, 2015
If the economic miracle is to continue, officials must give the private sector more freedom. We publish a 14-page special report on corporate China

Many unhappy returns Economist Subscription Required
Economist Sep 12, 2015
High valuations should give investors pause.

A brief history of rate rises: Tightening pains Economist Subscription Required
Economist Sep 12, 2015
The Fed faces some disturbing precedents.

Animating Europe’s capital markets: Vision and reality Economist Subscription Required
Economist Sep 12, 2015
Creating American-style capital markets in Europe will be hard.

Mobile money, trade credit, and economic development
Thorsten Beck, Haki Pamuk, Ravindra Ramrattan and Burak Uras (VoxEU) Sep 12, 2015
The focus of the financial inclusion debate has been mainly on credit and savings services. This column provides evidence that more effective payment systems can help ease small businesses’ access to external finance, ultimately resulting in faster economic growth. The success story of M-PESA in Kenya shows that mobile money technology not only increases financial inclusion of households, but also alleviates small firms’ financing constraints.

Redemption at last for banks? Financial Times Subscription Required
Oliver Ralph and Laura Noonan (FT) Sep 13, 2015
Tighter monetary policy is supposed to boost lenders, but does it?

Money-making scheme must be made of stronger stuff Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munhau (FT) Sep 13, 2015
Most of the macroeconomic effect of QE has already occurred.

The black gold beneath the surface of pop Financial Times Subscription Required
Ludovic Hunter-Tilney (FT) Sep 13, 2015
Since its discovery, oil has cast a spell over the human imagination.

Kirchner's Exit Revives Argentine Hope Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mary Anastasia O'Grady (WSJ) Sep 13, 2015
Despite the economic storms ahead, there is the possibility that repression could fade.

A scarcity of economic growth
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Sep 13, 2015
When governments cater to interest groups and undermine productivity. Read full article »

Germany’s Immigration Challenge
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Sep 13, 2015
We have to make an honest assessment of costs and benefits of the migration crisis.

Jokowi takes his first shot at economic reform
Chris Manning (EAF) Sep 13, 2015
Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has announced a comprehensive package of reforms aimed at reducing inflation and stabilising the exchange rate, stimulating demand through ‘deregulation’ and direct support, with a special focus on creating more jobs in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and across urban and rural communities

Why Asia Shouldn't Fear the Fed
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 13, 2015
A tightening cycle might actually help the region decouple from China.

Where the Euro Goes From Here
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Sep 13, 2015
The legacy of the recent economic crisis makes a tough problem nearly insoluble.

Eastern Europe’s Crisis of Shame
Jan T. Gross (Project Syndicate) Sep 13, 2015
As thousands of refugees pour into Europe to escape the horrors of war, Eastern Europeans have revealed themselves to be intolerant, illiberal, xenophobic, and incapable of remembering the spirit of solidarity that carried them to freedom a quarter-century ago. The root cause is to be found in World War II and its aftermath.

Crises that threaten to unravel the EU Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Sep 14, 2015
Refugee issue has overshadowed the euro, but the single currency’s problems have not gone away.

A flawed way to fund infrastructure Financial Times Subscription Required
Keith Burnett (FT) Sep 14, 2015
A centrally planned economy for some leaders is a blight on freedom.

Fed faces familiar rate rise dilemma Financial Times Subscription Required
Scott Minerd (FT) Sep 14, 2015
Previous delays led to inflated asset prices and recessions.

Banking on German growth Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Sep 14, 2015
Ambitious foreign lenders face tough domestic and regulatory challenges.

How Congress Can Help Puerto Rico New York Times Subscription Required
Clayton P. Gilette and David A. Skeel Jr (NYT) Sep 14, 2015
Bankruptcy should be allowed for the island’s municipalities.

Germany: A 10-Point Plan to Deal With the Immigration Challenge
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Sep 14, 2015
What does it take to make sure that the immigrants now arriving are integrated in a sustainable manner?

The 1 Million Migrant March on Germany Foreign Policy Subscription Required
Lara Jakes (FP) Sep 14, 2015
Berlin is facing an estimated wave of 1 million migrants this year -- but is finding little sympathy from its European Union neighbors.

Europe Discovers a New Geography
Robert D. Kaplan (Bloomberg View) Sep 14, 2015
The EU hoped to export stability. Instead it is being destabilized by its neighbors.

Thailand's Future Doesn't Lie in the Past
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 14, 2015
A return to populism won't restore the economy to long-term growth.

The Truth About the Migrant Crisis Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Michael S. Teitelbaum (FA) Sep 14, 2015
Tragic choices, moral hazards, and potential solutions.

Red flags are burning issue for China plc Financial Times Subscription Required
Jennifer Hughes (FT) Sep 15, 2015
Moody’s is appealing fine for raising corporate accounting fears.

A new Chinese export — recession risk Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 15, 2015
Beijing will let its currency go rather than continue to use reserves, some of which are highly illiquid.

Perils of mandatory EU migrant quotas Financial Times Subscription Required
Jacek Rostowski (FT) Sep 15, 2015
Refugees who want a better future look to Germany not Hungary or Poland.

BIS breathes life into rate rise debate Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Sep 15, 2015
Risks in raising rates still look greater than risks in staying put.

Raising Rates Too Soon: The Mistake Central Banks Keep Making New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Sep 15, 2015
Can looking at central bankers’ blunders from the recent past offer any useful guidance for what the Fed ought to do this week? It’s worth hoping.

Can Brazil Turn Its Economy Around?
Felipe Monteiro (Knowledge@Wharton) Sep 15, 2015
Brazil's recent credit rating downgrade is a wakeup call for the country to fix its economy. How can it restore confidence among investors and lenders?

Why the Fed Should Start Tightening
Michael Heise (Globalist) Sep 15, 2015
If the Fed wants to wait for economic circumstances that are perfectly balanced for a rate rise, that day might never come.

A United States of Europe? Good Luck
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 15, 2015
Europe's leaders may be ready for a stronger union. The public isn't.

Why the Fed Should Raise Rates Now
Brad Brooks (Bloomberg View) Sep 15, 2015
It would limit asset bubbles.

'Noflation' and the Limits of Quantitative Easing
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 15, 2015
Central bankers seem powerless to goose consumer prices.

Bottled Risk
Brahma Chellaney (Project Syndicate) Sep 15, 2015
Over the last 15 years, the bottled-water industry has experienced explosive growth, which shows no sign of slowing. This has been a disaster for the environment and the world’s poor.

Curbing Chinese Corruption
Paolo Mauro (Project Syndicate) Sep 15, 2015
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive is prompting a reconsideration of the impact of graft on the country's economy. In view of China's economic transformation and deeper integration in the world economy, curbing corruption has now become necessary to sustain high economic growth.

Unsustainable Development Goals
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Sep 15, 2015
The world's heads of state are expected to smile for the cameras and sign on the dotted line when they convene at the UN later this month to adopt the Sustainable Development Goals, which will guide global development spending – some $2.5 trillion – until 2030. Unfortunately, they will be signing away the opportunity of a generation.

A Growth Strategy for Europe
Hans-Helmut Kotz, Eric Labaye and Sven Smit (Project Syndicate) Sep 15, 2015
With the third Greek loan program almost in place, it is time for European leaders to start focusing on the future. That means embarking on a broad economic-reform program that combines growth-enhancing supply-side reforms and demand-side efforts to support investment and job creation.

The EU's Migration Diversion Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Sebastian Elischer (FA) Sep 15, 2015
Outsourcing the refugee crisis.

Oil prices, inflation expectations, and monetary policy
Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar (VoxEU) Sep 16, 2015
The 2014 decline in oil prices lowered short-run inflation. Before the Global Crisis, the medium-term correlation between oil prices and inflation was weak, but it has become much stronger since the onset of the Crisis. This column suggests that following the onset of the Crisis, inflation expectations reacted quite strongly to global demand conditions and oil supply shocks. The public’s belief in the ability of monetary authorities to stabilise inflation at the medium-term horizon has deteriorated.

Delivering the Jack Ma economy Financial Times Subscription Required
Charles Clover (FT) Sep 16, 2015
Low-paid couriers oil the wheels of ecommerce and boost Beijing’s efforts to rebalance the economy Read more >>

Merkel manages Europe’s migrant crisis Financial Times Subscription Required
Nikolaus Blome (FT) Sep 16, 2015
Her reintroduction of border controls looks like pragmatism not prejudice.

China’s economic facts and fakes Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Sep 16, 2015
While most economies are subject to booms and busts, this one has seemed to sail on regardless.

Why finance is new oil supply arbiter Financial Times Subscription Required
Ed Morse (FT) Sep 16, 2015
Capital intensive US shale is main focus for output declines.

Africa Vs. Asia: The Population Dimension
Globalist Sep 16, 2015
Today, Africa’s population is one-quarter the size of Asia’s. By 2100, it will be just 10% smaller.

Brazil's Downgrade
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Sep 16, 2015
Standard & Poor's brutal downgrade of Brazil's sovereign credit rating on September 9 is testament to the country's untenable situation. Political gridlock and the lack of a coherent fiscal strategy were the basis for the downgrade from investment to speculative grade, accompanied by a negative outlook that clearly underscores lack of confidence over the government's ability to deliver on its fiscal consolidation promises made earlier this year.

Europe's Best Hope for Greece?
Bloomberg View Sep 16, 2015
Ahead of elections, former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has support in Paris and Berlin.

Cutting Through the Rate-Hike Hype
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 16, 2015
There are reasons to hope for a delay, but much of the concern is overstated.

The 'Flash Boys' Exchange Is Growing Up
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Sep 16, 2015
It's hard to be a knight in shining armor if you're running a dark pool.

Oh, No! Japan Gets Downgraded. Oh, Wait.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Sep 16, 2015
The ratings cut represents the past, not the future.

The Age of Bobby Fischer
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Sep 16, 2015
The new Hollywood movie “Pawn Sacrifice” depicts the Cold War match between the tormented chess prodigy and Russian world champion Boris Spassky. It also makes one wonder whether a creative genius like Fischer, deeply troubled yet supremely functional at the chessboard, would be able to exist in today’s unforgiving online world.

Securing a Sustainable Future
Gro Harlem Brundtland and Graça Machel (Project Syndicate) Sep 16, 2015
The world is at a crossroads, and much of the progress made in fighting poverty and promoting social justice risks vanishing into thin air. If sustainable development is to be achieved, world leaders must agree to minimize climate change.

A Eurasian Solution for Europe’s Crises
Sergei Karaganov (Project Syndicate) Sep 16, 2015
What matters in resolving today’s conflicts between Russia and the West, be they active or supposedly “frozen,” is to build a broader framework of cooperation between the EU and what might be called Greater Eurasia. The remaining question in such a scenario concerns the role of the US.

Renminbi may be risk that wags the tail
Dan McCrum (FT) Sep 17, 2015
‘Tail risk’ of China currency falls would rattle investors.

Why Yellen Blinked on Interest Rates New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Sep 17, 2015
The decision to hold off suggests the Fed wants a little more evidence that the economy is truly on the mend.

Dear Donald Trump: China, Japan and Mexico are not “killing us”
Fareed Zakaria (WP) Sep 17, 2015
America occupies a dominant position on the global economic landscape. Read full article »

European Commission Releases Draft Proposal on TTIP Investment Court
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 30 Sep 17, 2015
The European Commission released on Wednesday a long-awaited draft proposal on a possible "investment court system," one that it says could replace the controversial investor-state dispute settlement system in all current and future investment negotiations – starting with the planned Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

Nigeria Vs. North America: Role Reversal
Globalist Sep 17, 2015
North America’s population is currently twice as large as Nigeria’s. By 2100, it will be the other way around.

The Story Behind the Emerging-Market Meltdown
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Sep 17, 2015
In a word, China.

China’s woes could derail Abenomics
Michel Krmek (Nikkei Asian Review/Bruegel) Sep 17, 2015
Just as Japanese growth was starting to pick up from the repercussions of last year’s consumption tax hike, a new shock has hit the economy: China’s economic woes.

Can Trade Keep Iran in Line?
Jamsheed K. Choksy and Carol E. B. Choksy (YaleGlobal) Sep 17, 2015
Trade delegations rush to Iran; if its nuclear ambitions are not contained, restoring sanctions won't be easy

Fraud, Fools, and Financial Markets
Robert J. Shiller (Project Syndicate) Sep 17, 2015
Adam Smith famously wrote of the “invisible hand,” by which individuals’ pursuit of self-interest in free, competitive markets advances the interest of society as a whole. But, because we can be manipulated, deceived, or even just passively tempted, free markets also persuade us to buy things that are good neither for us nor for society.

A happy state Recommended!
Benjamin Radcliff (Aeon) Sep 17, 2015
Why is the welfare state under attack when happiness economics shows it is the system most conducive to human wellbeing?

The global productivity slump: Common and country-specific factors
Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin (VoxEU) Sep 17, 2015
Productivity growth is slowing down around the world. The question is what lies behind this phenomenon and if it can be reversed. This column takes a historic perspective on total factor productivity growth slowdowns to suggest that global factors may play a role in the problem. Factors that are negatively associated with TFP slumps include educational attainment, political development, and high levels of investment. But there is no guarantee that avoiding these factors will necessarily prevent TFP slumps.

Europe's Dangerous Ambivalence New York Times Subscription Required
Nikos Konstandaras (NYT) Sep 18, 2015
It's election time again in Greece, where the continuing economic crisis and the influx of refugees reflect the same fundamental structural paradox.

Republican Job Killers and the Export-Import Bank New York Times Subscription Required
Joe Nocera (NYT) Sep 18, 2015
Top chief executives sound off against the effort to kill the Ex-Im Bank.

Greece's Paper Trail Eventually Leads to Reform
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Sep 18, 2015
The humble receipt can help end tax evasion and spread the tax burden.

Greek Voters Have a Choice, But Not Much of One
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Sep 18, 2015
The debt-relief deal is already set. The winning party must implement it.

The Fed Should Raise Its Inflation Target
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Sep 18, 2015
If they're expecting years of below-target inflation, why do Fed members still plan to raise rates this year?

Ready for a US Rate Hike?
Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) Sep 18, 2015
The possibility that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates for the first time in a decade has sent jitters across emerging markets. Governments in the developing world would be wise to worry less about rate changes in the US and more about policy changes they can make that would boost economic resilience at home.

The Data Revolution for Sustainable Development
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Shaida Badiee, Robert Chen and Enrico Giovannini (Project Syndicate) Sep 18, 2015
There is growing recognition that the success of the Sustainable Development Goals, which will be adopted at a special UN summit this month, will depend on the ability of governments, businesses, and civil society to track progress and make informed decisions. The key is to use data more effectively.

The Roots of German Openness
Dominique Moisi (Project Syndicate) Sep 18, 2015
Germany – a country that, less than a century ago, was a source of huge numbers of refugees – has become the most desired destination for those fleeing the Middle East and Africa, and a moral compass for the rest of Europe. How did the country move so rapidly from darkness to light?

Is 70 Too Old for the UN?
Shashi Tharoor (Project Syndicate) Sep 18, 2015
As world leaders prepare to gather at the UN in New York to ratify the new Sustainable Development Goals and commemorate the UN’s 70th anniversary, a fundamental question has become inescapable. In the face of growing global disorder, does the UN have a future?

Economic resilience: A new set of vulnerability indicators for OECD countries and evidence of their usefulness
Aida Caldera, Mikkel Hermansen and Oliver Röhn (VoxEU) Sep 19, 2015
The Global Crisis and its high costs have revived interest in early warning indicators of economic risks. This column presents a new set of indicators to detect vulnerabilities and assess country-specific risks of suffering a crisis. The empirical evidence confirms the usefulness of the vulnerability indicators in warning of severe recessions and crises in OECD countries. But indicators are no silver bullet and should be complemented with other monitoring tools, including expert judgement.

China in Its Labyrinth
Angel Ubide (PIIE/El Pais) Sep 20, 2015
A few weeks ago, at a conference in Beijing, a friend told me that one of the most popular Chinese sayings is that that the ignorant are not afraid of anything. The evolution of the Chinese economy in recent decades exemplifies this saying. After the terrible oppression of the Cultural Revolution, the Chinese people opened up to capitalism without knowing how it worked. The basis of capitalism—private entrepreneurship—requires ignorance, since the probability of success of a new business is well below 50 percent. If entrepreneurs understood this probability they would never launch any venture.

Europe's Hungary Problem Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
R. Daniel Kelemen (FA) Sep 20, 2015
Viktor Orban flouts the union.

Perplexing failure of EU’s centre-left Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Sep 21, 2015
Ultimate crisis of global capitalism was delivered on a plate and they did not know what to do.

Unbearable lightness of leaving Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Iliana Magra (FT) Sep 21, 2015
EU’s biggest brain drain is hard to watch and no more comfortable to be part of.

Insurance deals start to make less sense Financial Times Subscription Required
Oliver Ralph (FT) Sep 21, 2015
Despite being driven by different trends, M&As are looking either expensive or strategically unsound Read more >>

Japan: End of the rice age Financial Times Subscription Required
Leo Lewis (FT) Sep 21, 2015
As the nation eats less rice, can it afford subsidies that have kept powerful farmers in business?

Nigeria needs a new policy on oil Financial Times Subscription Required
Kingsley Moghalu (FT) Sep 21, 2015
Leaders have concentrated on rewarding their supporters not the people.

The Rage of the Bankers New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Sep 21, 2015
The truth about low interest rates, and why the arguments against leaving them alone seem to keep changing.

Why a 'Brexit' Looms Large New York Times Subscription Required
Matthew J. Goodwin (NYT) Sep 21, 2015
For decades, there's been a grudging consensus for Britain's membership in the European Union. Now it's broken.

China Must Stick to the Path of Economic Reform Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Jacob J. Lew (WSJ) Sep 21, 2015
President Xi Jinping’s visit to the U.S. this week is the right time to reaffirm his country’s commitments.

When Will Russia-China Trade Hit the $100 Billion Mark?
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Sep 21, 2015
In June 2011, at a meeting in Moscow, Russian and Chinese presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Hu Jintao set targets of achieving $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2015 and $200 billion by 2020. Initially, the two countries were on track to meet these goals. More recently, this task has become impossible, because of falling energy prices, currency devaluations, and Western sanctions on some Russian industries.

A Greek Election Result that Signals the End of the Euro Crisis
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Sep 21, 2015
Greek voters delivered a resounding victory to Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza party on September 20, despite a record low voter turnout of 55 percent. Syriza's 35.5 percent of the vote replicated its achievement in January 2015. Compounding his victory was the failure of the leftwing breakaway Popular Unity party under former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis to cross the threshold for parliamentary representation (3 percent). At age 41, Tsipras looks set to dominate Greek politics for the foreseeable future. The additional inability to exploit Syriza's eight months of failure and mount a comeback by New Democracy and Panhellenic Socialists (PASOK)—the two traditional Greek parties of power—highlights the desire of Greeks to break with the past.

A Glimmer of Hope in Greece
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Sep 21, 2015
For the first time this year, people are bringing money into the country.

Greek Elections Are an Opportunity for Europe
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 21, 2015
Debt forgiveness would bolster the new Tsipras government.

Refugees and Reform in Europe
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Sep 21, 2015
Europe’s refugee crisis is a historic challenge that offers historic opportunities. The question is whether Europe’s politicians – who have failed to deliver on far less complicated issues over which they had a lot more control – can seize the moment.

E Pluribus Europe?
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Sep 21, 2015
Europe’s economic crises of the last half-decade have fueled a deep split between north and south, and now the migrant crisis is creating an east-west divide, while the rift between Britain and the continent is deepening. But, paradoxical as it may seem, when it comes to EU cohesion, more cleavages are better.

Bridging the Transatlantic Digital Divide
Viviane Reding (Project Syndicate) Sep 21, 2015
The day after the US and the EU signed the so-called Umbrella Agreement strengthening data privacy, the US Justice Department argued in federal court that US authorities should be granted unlimited access to data located abroad, including in Europe. This dangerous breach of trust is likely to be self-defeating.

Cheers to the Taxman Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Alex Thier (FA) Sep 21, 2015
Why taxes are better than aid.

Can We Rely on Market-Based Inflation Forecasts? Recommended!
Michael D. Bauer and Erin McCarthy (FRBSF Economic Letter) Sep 21, 2015
A substantial decline in market-based measures of inflation expectations has raised concerns about low future inflation. An important question to address is whether the forecasts based on market information are as accurate as alternative forecasting methods. Compared against surveys of professional forecasters and other simple constant measurement tools, market-based inflation expectations are poor predictors of future inflation. This suggests that these measures contain little forward-looking information about future inflation.

Signs point to deepening China distress Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 22, 2015
Fed rate decision will help emerging markets but not revive world growth.

Central banks have made the rich richer Financial Times Subscription Required
Paul Marshall (FT) Sep 22, 2015
All of us who work in finance owe a debt to quantitative easing.

The mystery of vanishing pounds and euros Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) Sep 22, 2015
Where has all this money gone? Certainly not into your wallet or mine.

Stressed bank loans test India’s ambitions Financial Times Subscription Required
James Crabtree (FT) Sep 22, 2015
Delhi is putting off the day when it will have to come clean on a dirty statistical secret.

What Happened to South African Democracy New York Times Subscription Required
Kenan Malik (NYT) Sep 22, 2015
Thanks to a corrupt political elite, life for millions of people is no better than it was under apartheid.

Stop Propping Up Fossil Fuels
Bloomberg View Sep 22, 2015
OECD countries spent more on subsidies in 2014 than they did a decade ago. Why?

UN Reviews Development Goals, But Again Ignores Population Growth
Joseph Chamie (YaleGlobal) Sep 22, 2015
UN sustainability goals should not overlook population growth centered in the poor, least developed countries.

Central Banker Sees the Future of Money in Bitcoin
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 22, 2015
Maybe digital currencies can solve the Zero Lower Bound problem?

Why the Fed Buried Monetarism
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Sep 22, 2015
The Federal Reserve’s decision to delay an increase in US interest rates should have come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments. So why did the markets and media behave as if the Fed’s action (or, more precisely, inaction) was unexpected?

Capitalism and Social Issues in the 21st Century
Irving Wladawsky-Berger (Pieria) Sep 22, 2015
Viewing the role of business as the single-minded pursuit of profits and shareholder returns feels not only simplistic but contrary to what good capitalism should be all about.

We Should Not Be Afraid
Angel Gurría (Project Syndicate) Sep 22, 2015
By the end of this year, the EU will have more than one million asylum-seekers. But, while Europeans have no reason to be afraid, the response of Europe’s governments, in all but a handful of cases, has been tentative, at best: acknowledging the need to do more, while fearing the implications.

Growing Out of Inequality
Zia Qureshi (Project Syndicate) Sep 22, 2015
Income inequality has been increasing in most major economies – and in many of them, it has been increasing significantly. But the typical approach to tackling the problem – redistributive tax-and-transfer fiscal policies – can be controversial and divisive, owing to perceived tradeoffs between economic growth and greater equality.

Europe’s Bad Example
Peter Sutherland (Project Syndicate) Sep 22, 2015
The consequences of Europe’s failure to mount an effective response to the refugee crisis continue to grow, with hundreds of thousands having suffered unnecessarily and bitter divisions jeopardizing the EU's border-free Schengen Area. Perhaps worst of all, Europe's paralysis has given the rest of the world an excuse for inaction.

Abolish cash and you invite tyranny Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Sep 23, 2015
Andy Haldane’s call to get rid of the money in our wallets has an unfortunate echo of Maoist China.

Xi must yield power to the private sector Financial Times Subscription Required
Chris Giles (FT) Sep 23, 2015
If he was clamping down politically to prepare for economic liberalisation it has not happened.

Fed must stop dithering and take action Financial Times Subscription Required
Danielle DiMartino Booth (FT) Sep 23, 2015
Increasing distortions of low rates threaten to collapse into crisis.

Earth’s poor set to swell as World Bank moves poverty line Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Sep 23, 2015
The World Bank is to make the most dramatic change to its global poverty line for 25 years — raising its measure by a half to about $1.90 per day — in a move likely to swell the statistical ranks of the world’s poor by tens of millions.

Chinese Spillovers New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Sep 23, 2015
China is clearly in economic trouble. But how worried should we be about spillovers from China’s woes to the rest of the world economy?

How the Birth Dearth Saps Economic Growth Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Ruchir Sharma (WSJ) Sep 23, 2015
Worries about migrants miss that to avoid decline, Europe and the U.S. need many more people.

China’s Japan-bashing
John West (Globalist) Sep 23, 2015
Is there any hope that China and Japan could bury the hatchet and have friendly relations?

The Agony and the Exodus
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Sep 23, 2015
The West cannot or will not absorb refugees in the numbers needed, and it has no solution to the problem of failed states. This means that, apart from doling out humanitarian aid to those in refugee camps, it has no policy at all.

Getting Universal Education Right
Steven J. Klees (Project Syndicate) Sep 23, 2015
The international community has been pledging to attain universal primary education since the 1960s, and it is doing so again by including this target in the Sustainable Development Goals. But, unless new resources are made available, the world is likely to fail yet again.

Containing China’s Slowdown
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) Sep 23, 2015
Pundits love debating the Chinese economy’s growth prospects, and nowadays the pessimists are gaining the upper hand. But many are basing their predictions on other economies’ experiences, whereas China has been breaking the mold on economic growth for the last three decades.

Dispelling three myths on economics in Germany
Michael Burda (VoxEU) Sep 23, 2015
Many analysts believe that German economists hold a very different view of macroeconomics. This column presents a personal view why this belief is wrong. The fact that Europe still consists of sovereign nations and that most Europeans still want to keep it that way informs much of what happens inside German economists' heads.

Dealing with the demise of a supercycle Financial Times Subscription Required
Daniel Yergin (FT) Sep 24, 2015
Producers face austerity as well as battles over budget and debt.

Science of happiness is an ancient art Financial Times Subscription Required
Anjana Ahuja (FT) Sep 24, 2015
Contentment stems not from material wealth but from relationships.

Sharing economy is a Wall Street playground Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Sep 24, 2015
Hedge funds and banks are repackaging P2P loans and lending via these platforms.

Fed faces quandary as share gloom deepens Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Sep 24, 2015
Further market volatility will only complicate the desire to nudge rates upwards.

Sharp Drop in Currency Adds to Growing List of Woes in Brazil New York Times Subscription Required
Vinod Sreeharsha (NYT) Sep 24, 2015
The weakness in the real is causing companies to delay plans, and the market for initial public offerings has been effectively frozen.

Beijing's New World Order Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Sep 24, 2015
China’s aggression requires a more forceful American response.

WTO Members Tussle Over Size and Shape of Nairobi Package
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 31 Sep 24, 2015
With WTO members still divided on farm subsidies and market access issues, Director-General Roberto Azevêdo last week called for negotiators to start focusing their efforts on "the most promising issues" for the global trade body’s upcoming ministerial conference in Nairobi, Kenya this December.

TPP Countries Eye Potential Chief Negotiators' Meeting as Elections Loom
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 31 Sep 24, 2015
The 12 countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement are reportedly considering holding high-level talks next week in the US city of Atlanta, as the impending elections in some key players threaten to complicate the long-term timeline for the trade deal.

EU, US Trade Chiefs Pledge to Speed Up TTIP Talks
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 31 Sep 24, 2015
The top trade officials from the EU and US agreed to ramp up the pace of bilateral negotiations for a wide-reaching trade and investment deal, following a "political stocktaking" meeting expected to set the tone of the talks through the rest of the year.

The Emerging-Markets Bellwether From Peoria
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Sep 24, 2015
Caterpillar's woes send a message about construction and commodities.

Is ASEAN Losing Its Way?
Amitav Acharya (YaleGlobal) Sep 24, 2015
Fragmented ASEAN balks at taking a position on China’s creeping expansionism in the South China Sea.

The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?
Graham Allison (Atlantic) Sep 24, 2015
In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling power, the result has been bloodshed.

China's 'Silk Road' Initiative Is at Risk of Failure
Moritz Rudolf (Diplomat) Sep 24, 2015
China’s “Silk Road PR” is in full swing, but the reality on the ground is different than the rhetoric.

The Short Asian Century?
Yuriko Koike (Project Syndicate) Sep 24, 2015
A little over a decade ago, people began to speculate about an emerging “Asian century.” But with China’s economy in turmoil and key East Asian “tiger” economies like Malaysia and Thailand floundering, the Asian century could come to a premature end.

GMOs and Junk Science
Henry I. Miller and Kavin Senapathy (Project Syndicate) Sep 24, 2015
In today’s media landscape, the scientific method should serve as a touchstone of reality. But scientists occasionally “go rogue,” forsaking the scientific method to produce propaganda and sow fear in a public that lacks expertise but is hungry for information.

China in the Debt-Deflation Trap
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Sep 24, 2015
In the wake of a global stock market sell-off triggered by economic turmoil in China, the US Federal Reserve has decided to postpone raising interest rates. And, indeed, China is facing huge challenges, with the risk of a global debt-deflation trap being a major one.

Greek debt remains unsustainable
Jasper Lukkezen (VoxEU) Sep 24, 2015
After 2018, Greece should have market access. This column argues that without further debt relief, this is unlikely to happen. Under reasonable assumptions, its debt ratio will likely not decline, and the financing burden will increase again. Private investors will take these risks into account and will ask for a risk premium that Greece cannot afford in the long run.

Brazil and Turkey show India what not to do Financial Times Subscription Required
Alan Beattie (FT) Sep 25, 2015
Price is high when politicians meddle with central banks and chip away at a policy building block.

Economic Malays Economist Subscription Required
Economist Sep 25, 2015
Racially motivated scuffles and political demonstrations in Malaysia in recent weeks are the latest of the many difficulties facing its prime minister.

Harnessing the Power of Fiscal Policy to Mitigate Inequality
IMF Survey Sep 25, 2015
The appropriate design of fiscal policies can mitigate income inequality, without hurting growth, or even while increasing it, according to a recently published IMF book, Inequality and Fiscal Policy.

A Non-Circuit Breaker Agenda for Brazil
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Sep 25, 2015
Mohamed A. El-Erian, one of the world's most respected emerging markets experts, writes that Brazil needs a "circuit breaker" to halt the vicious cycle that has trapped its economy. Brazil's turmoil—a shrinking GDP, soaring public and private debts, high interest rates, a depreciating currency, and a corruption scandal—is attributed by El-Erian (in an op-ed in Bloomberg View>) to adverse self-fulfilling expectations that must be reversed by measures that he does not specify.

Save the World, Turn a Profit
Muhammad A. Yunus (Bloomberg View) Sep 25, 2015
The 'social success note' can lure private money into humanitarian projects.

Yes to Catalan Independence
Carles Boix (Project Syndicate) Sep 25, 2015
Catalonia’s impending regional election amounts to an indirect referendum on independence from Spain. There are several reasons – cultural, social, economic, and most of all political – why the message the referendum sends should be a resounding endorsement of sovereignty.

Demography and the global economy – “continental” drift is well underway
Markus Jaeger (DB Research) Sep 25, 2015
Continental drift is slow, takes place almost imperceptibly and ends up having dramatic effects in the long run. In this, it is very similar to demographic change. Let us begin with a few facts. The world’s population is set to grow from 7.3 bn today to more than 9.7 bn by 2050. By comparison, the world’s population was a mere 2.5 bn in 1950. The regional (continental) demographic balance has been shifting for quite some time. In 1950, four of the ten largest countries were European (Germany, Italy, USSR, UK). Today, only Russia, ironically the country with the most adverse demographics, ranks among the top-10. In 1950, the big European four made up 10% of the world’s population. This figure has dropped to 5% today and will continue to decline for the foreseeable future. The populations of Africa and Asia will continue to increase significantly – and dramatically so in Africa – over the next few decades (chart). Admittedly, the aggregate increase hides significant intra-regional differences (e.g. East versus South Asia).

Emergency liquidity assistance and Greek banks’ bankruptcy
Martin R. Götz, Rainer Haselmann, Jan Pieter Krahnen and Sascha Steffen (VoxEU) Sep 25, 2015
Discussions continue in some circles as to whether the ECB’s emergency liquidity assistance for Greek banks is legitimate. This column assesses the underlying economics of the emergency liquidity assistance programme and the complex interrelationship between the EU, the ECB and the Greek banks. Economists must focus on the political economy of a monetary union with incomplete fiscal union if they are to understand what’s going on with emergency liquidity.

China’s consumers: Doughty but not superhuman Economist Subscription Required
Economist Sep 26, 2015
China’s consumption boom is not enough to succour the world economy.

Central banking: After the hold, be bold Economist Subscription Required
Economist Sep 26, 2015
It will take more than patience to free rich economies from the zero-interest-rate world.

China Economy: Already Larger Than U.S.
Globalist Sep 26, 2015
When will China overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy?

Should You Fear The Robotpocalypse?
John Aziz (Pieria) Sep 26, 2015
The historical record suggests we should assume robots will create more jobs than they destroy until proven otherwise.

Rebuilding the Asylum System
George Soros (Project Syndicate) Sep 26, 2015
European leaders emerged from yet another summit this week, having made only modest progress towards definitively addressing a refugee crisis that has caused enormous human suffering and shaken the EU to its core. The time for partial measures is long past; a comprehensive plan is needed.

The Decadence of the People’s Car
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Sep 26, 2015
The Volkswagen scandal is a useful reminder that corporate wrongdoing is not confined to the banking industry, and that merely levying fines or ramping up regulation is unlikely to solve the problem. Indeed, it is one of the iron laws of corporate physics: Every regulation elicits a proportionate effort to circumvent it.

Foreign entry and domestic innovation
Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Jan Svejnar (VoxEU) Sep 26, 2015
While there is substantial evidence that multinationals are more productive than domestic firms, the evidence on productivity spillovers remains mixed. This column estimates the effects of foreign presence on the innovation of local firms. It suggests that spillovers from foreign firms to domestic firms are limited to domestic firms immediately connected to foreign firms. Requirements for foreign firms to have significant local content may therefore be justified.

Crises push Europe into realm of chaos Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Sep 27, 2015
The refugee crisis alone will reduce Germany’s financial and political room for manoeuvre.

Active funds underperform ‘inertia index’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Paul Myners (FT) Sep 27, 2015
Measure shows limited worth of managers buying and selling stocks and shares.

Re-Engineering Egypt's Economy Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Abdel Fattah El Sisi (WSJ) Sep 27, 2015
Our government is instituting reforms to spur growth and free private businesses to lead the way.

The life-expectancy gap
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Sep 27, 2015
The well-off live longer and draw more benefits. Read full article »

China’s Economy Will Be Larger Than U.S. by 2028
Globalist Sep 27, 2015
Currently, the Chinese economy is just 40% smaller than the U.S. when measured at market exchange rates.

Regulatory arbitrage in action: Evidence from cross-border lending
Dennis Reinhardt & Rhiannon Sowerbutts (VoxEU) Sep 27, 2015
Regulatory arbitrage is an essential feature of modern banking. This column presents new evidence on avoiding macroprudential policies by borrowing from abroad. Domestic non-banks borrow more from abroad after an increase in capital requirements, but not after an increase in lending standards. This is most likely because of differences in the way the two regulations apply, and suggests that we should have strong frameworks for reciprocating capital regulation.

New PM will not solve Australia’s issues Financial Times Subscription Required
Satyajit Das (FT) Sep 28, 2015
Risk is cycle of commodity booms and debt-driven domestic upswings.

The ideas that divide China and America Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Sep 28, 2015
Washington believes in universal values and inevitable progress whereas Beijing does not.

Big oil faces shrinking prospects Financial Times Subscription Required
Nick Butler (FT) Sep 28, 2015
The Arctic debacle is a salutary reminder that the old business model is reaching its end.

China data: Making the numbers add up Financial Times Subscription Required
Gabriel Wildau (FT) Sep 28, 2015
Scepticism about the accuracy of the official data has intensified. But what if the underlying figures are reliable?

An Ambitious Development Agenda from the U.N. New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Sep 28, 2015
Meeting the United Nations' lofty goals will be tough in a weakened world economy. Still, much can be done with support from industrialized nations.

Bill Gates and the golden age of global aid
Michael Gerson (WP) Sep 28, 2015
The Gates Foundation has joined the ambitious campaign against malaria in Africa.

Not Only China’s Economy May Beat the U.S.’s By 2050.
Globalist Sep 28, 2015
By 2050 it is possible that the U.S. economy will not just be smaller than China’s — but India’s as well.

China's Economy Will Not Be Larger Than U.S. Even By the End of This Century
Globalist Sep 28, 2015
Despite a significant growth differential in China’s favor, the country’s per capita GDP will equal only 42% of the U.S. level by 2050.

Commodity Exporters Facing the Difficult Aftermath of the Boom
IMF Survey Sep 28, 2015
With a weak outlook for commodity prices, particularly for energy and metals, growth in commodity-exporting emerging and developing economies could slow further over the next few years, says a new study.

Exchange Rates Still Matter For Trade
IMF Survey Sep 28, 2015
Exchange rate movements still have sizeable effects on exports and imports, says a new IMF study.

Spain's Brain Drain Is a Eurozone Problem
Jean-Michel Paul (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2015
Spain's best workers are leaving, undermining the euro and Spain's economic chances.

Look Out for the Great Trade Stagnation
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2015
Trade boosts productivity, the key to rising living standards.

A Mandate for Catalonian Autonomy, Not Secession
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2015
Sunday's election results in Catalonia are not strong enough for secessionists to move quickly toward their ultimate goal, but they are a useful bargaining chip.

Another Year Near Zero?
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2015
Markets are acting as though interest rates will stay low for a while.

Ending the Markets' Short-Term Obsession
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2015
Only a focus on the bigger picture will curb volatility.

Need Energy? Look to the Sun
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2015
Only solar has the potential to meet human needs in the long term.

Toward a Genuine Economic and Monetary Union?
Otmar Issing (Project Syndicate) Sep 28, 2015
With Europe’s current crisis having convinced many that the EU's existing institutional arrangements are unsustainable, many high-level figures have been calling for a move toward political union. But further European integration will not be feasible until trust among the member states has been restored.

Sunlight on Tax Havens
J. Bradford DeLong and Michael M. DeLong (Project Syndicate) Sep 28, 2015
The entire point of tax havens' existence is to conceal the wealth hidden within them. And a new book reveals, as never before, the extent of their role in the global economy – and in impeding efforts to combat growing inequality.

Don’t Fear the IMF
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Sep 28, 2015
The International Monetary Fund is, in many places, the organization everybody loves to hate. But fear of the IMF is not only wrong; it is dangerous for countries with troubled economies that need the Fund's resources and expertise.

The Inexorable Logic of the Sharing Economy
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Sep 28, 2015
The Internet-led process of exploiting under-utilized resources – be they physical and financial capital or human capital and talent – is both unstoppable and accelerating. The long-term benefits consist not just in efficiency and productivity gains, but also in much-needed new jobs requiring a broad range of skills.

The Fire Forging Europe
Carl Bildt (Project Syndicate) Sep 28, 2015
European leaders have bitterly disagreed on the best way to handle the large numbers of refugees crossing the Mediterranean, once again sparking talk of crisis in the EU. And yet in today's disagreements could lie the roots of a stronger union.

The Sino-American Codependency Trap
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Sep 28, 2015
Trapped in the dynamic of codependency, the US-China relationship has become fraught with friction and finger pointing. Indeed, the just-concluded summit between Barack Obama and Xi Jinping did little to dispel the possibility of a painful rupture in bilateral ties.

China and India: Not So Different
David J. Karl (Asia Sentinel) Sep 28, 2015
The ‘autocratic advantage’ wasn’t all it was cracked up to be.

China’s Rise and the U.S. Trade War With India
Carter Dougherty (FP) Sep 28, 2015
Washington and New Delhi may be natural allies, but that doesn’t mean that they see eye to eye on economic ties.

Low interest rates, capital flows, and declining productivity in South Europe
Gita Gopinath, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Loukas Karabarbounis and Carolina Villegas-Sanchez (VoxEU) Sep 28, 2015
Joining the Eurozone was once a near unquestionably good idea. Now, the costs of joining the monetary union are under close scrutiny. This column takes a slightly different tack, presenting an alternative perspective on how joining the euro has impacted productivity in southern Europe. It turns out that capital wasn’t allocated efficiently across firms after cheap borrowing at low interest rates, impacting total factor productivity.

Net Benefits Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Sebastian Mallaby (FA) Sep 28, 2015
How to understand the economic impact of migration.

China pins economy hopes on trains Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 29, 2015
Beijing focuses on railway construction to fuel growth.

Credit and commodities run out of steam Financial Times Subscription Required
Frederic Neumann (FT) Sep 29, 2015
Reforms essential to achieve productivity gains needed to sustain growth.

A stronger capital markets union for Europe Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Hill (FT) Sep 29, 2015
No need to disrupt markets that work well in pursuit of theoretical perfection.

Benefits of migration are questionable Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 29, 2015
Cosmopolitanism is incompatible with our organisation into territorial jurisdictions.

Brazil: In the firing line Financial Times Subscription Required
Joe Leahy (FT) Sep 29, 2015
President Rousseff faces impeachment in move that could bring recession-hit country to a standstill.

The World Needs to Build on Its Success Against Malaria New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Sep 29, 2015
With a global investment strategy, some countries will be able to eradicate the disease.

Market Liquidity Not in Decline, but Prone to Evaporate
IMF Survey Sep 29, 2015
The level of liquidity in financial markets—the ability to buy or sell a large quantity of a financial asset at a low cost in a short time—has not shown a marked decline in most asset classes; however, low interest rates may be masking an erosion of its underlying resilience, according to new research from the International Monetary Fund.

Rise in Emerging Market Corporate Debt Driven by Global Factors
IMF Survey Sep 29, 2015
Debt levels of firms in emerging market economies have risen, particularly in construction, and oil and gas, due to low interest rates in advanced economies, as well as other global factors, according to new research from the International Monetary Fund.

Governments Turn to the UN to Avoid Paying Their Debts
Nicolás Cachanosky (Mises Daily) Sep 29, 2015
Paying back government debt is not the simple matter it is often assumed to be, and repudiation of government debt has its benefits.

In Defense of Derivatives: From Beer to the Financial Crisis Adobe Acrobat Required
Bruce Tuckman (Cato) Sep 29, 2015
Derivatives provide implicit leverage to businesses, but there are two broad problems with the current approach to regulating derivatives. First, rules that treat derivatives in isolation are unlikely to reduce the overall risk of individual financial firms or the financial system. Second, rules that make derivatives harder to use will reduce derivatives risks, but the reduction will be at the expense of increasing business risks. Policies aimed at holistic risk management, reporting, and supervision would be more successful in reducing systemic risk.

The 2030 agenda for sustainable development has been approved
Homi Kharas (Brookings) Sep 30, 2015
Observations from last weekend’s UN summit on sustainable development.

Greek Banks Expose Europe's Flaws
Bloomberg View Sep 29, 2015
When Europe has to work around its own rules to save Greek banks, that's not OK.

India's Rajan Cuts Deep, But Not Deep Enough
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Sep 29, 2015
Only more powerful easing will translate to the real economy.

Lower Bond Rating? Buyers Binge
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Sep 29, 2015
Global investors make a mockery of sovereign-debt ratings.

The Limits of the German Promised Land
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
In order to avert chaos, Germany has no choice but to impose restrictions on the influx of migrants. Doing so will allow Germany to concentrate on the task at hand: providing those granted refugee status the schooling and language lessons they will need to allow them to find employment as quickly as possible.

The Business of Improving Global Health
Jörg Reinhardt (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
The new Sustainable Development Goals include a vow to reduce premature deaths caused by chronic illnesses such as cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. But the new health-related goals are more ambitious than ever, while, in many ways, the public-health situation has never been more challenging.

The BRICS Fallacy
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
The world’s obsession with the perceived rise and fall of the BRICS reflects a desire to identify the country or bloc that will take over from the US as global leader. But, in searching for the “next big thing,” the world is ignoring the need for the US to continue to engage globally.

The Chinese Economy and Fed Policy
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
The Federal Reserve should start tightening monetary policy to reduce the risks of financial instability caused by the behavior of investors and lenders in response to the prolonged period of exceptionally low interest rates since the 2008 financial crisis. Events in China are no reason for further delay.

Sustainable Governance Goals
Tony Blair (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
The Sustainable Development Goals, approved at the UN this week, have the potential to transform the lives of billions of people. But they will succeed only if governments have the wherewithal to create and implement the necessary policies.

Why Finance Can Save the Planet
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
Most people hate finance, viewing it as the epitome of irresponsibility and greed. But, even after causing a once-in-a-century recession and unemployment for millions, finance looks indispensable for preventing an even worse catastrophe: climate change.

Jeremy Corbyn’s Necessary Agenda
Mariana Mazzucato (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
While businesses clearly create wealth, so do workers, public institutions, and civil-society organizations. Indeed, what sets Britain's new Labour Party leader apart is his recognition that wealth creation is a collective process, and that market outcomes are the product of how various “wealth creators” interact.

Measuring the interest premium for past default
Luis AV Catão and Rui C. Mano (VoxEU) Sep 29, 2015
Sovereign governments re-entering capital markets after debt renegotiations pay an interest rate premium for past defaults. This column presents new evidence that suggests earlier studies have underestimated this premium. This is partly due to the narrow credit history indicators used in previous studies as well as the narrow data coverage. Correcting for these problems, a sizeable and persistent default premium emerges, and one which rises on the duration of the default. The new findings are consistent with the view that financial markets help discipline governments and rationalise why governments try hard not to default.

The political economy of liberal democracy
Sharun Mukand and Dani Rodrik (VoxEU) Sep 29, 2015
There are more democracies in the world than non-democracies, but few of the democracies go beyond electoral competition. This column highlights the contrast between electoral democracies and liberal ones, that is, those that protect civil rights in addition to political and property rights. Liberal democracies are rare because the failure to protect minority rights is a common consequence of the emergence of democracy. They are especially uncommon in the developing world, where decolonisation and identity cleavages sparked social mobilisation.

Silicon Valley trip shows Modi delusions Financial Times Subscription Required
Edward Luce (FT) Sep 30, 2015
Impressive parts of US economy are led by people ‘made in India’, but few show signs of going home.

Credit and commodities run out of steam Financial Times Subscription Required
Frederic Neumann (FT) Sep 30, 2015
Reforms essential to achieve output gains needed to sustain growth.

Markets: Can they really be tamed? Financial Times Subscription Required
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Sep 30, 2015
Computer models designed to help investors navigate turbulence are accused of making things worse.

Vladimir Putin's Guide to World History New York Times Subscription Required
Masha Gessen (NYT) Sep 30, 2015
According to his reading, Russia was the key to creating a participatory world order that America abused.

Lagarde Calls for ‘Policy Upgrade’ to Combat Uncertain Global Outlook
IMF Survey Sep 30, 2015
Policymakers will need to strengthen policies to address current challenges and help lead the world economy to recovery, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a speech at the Council of the Americas.

Brazil Needs to Abandon Inflation Targeting and Yield to Fiscal Dominance
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Sep 30, 2015
What happens when efforts to combat inflation collide with government deficits so large that they force the central bank to buy up debt, print money, and thereby drive up inflation? Economists describe this as a collision between inflation targeting and fiscal dominance.

Can Silicon Valley Save the World?
Pankaj Mishra (Bloomberg View) Sep 30, 2015
Techno-utopians need to beware the dangers of 'solutionism.'

High-Speed Trading Firm Deleted Some Code by Accident
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Sep 30, 2015
Even the biggest algorithmic trading firms are sometimes befuddled by modern markets.

Europe’s Reality Check
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) Sep 30, 2015
Europe's sense of itself as a safe and secure place disintegrated this summer. The tide of refugees flowing over its borders directly confronted the EU with the harsh realities from which it had appeared to be a sanctuary – realities which only European solidarity can address.

Leaving Our Children Nothing
Johan Rockström (Project Syndicate) Sep 30, 2015
Our generation has a unique opportunity. If we set our minds to it, we could be the first in human history to leave our children nothing: no poverty, no greenhouse-gas emissions, and no biodiversity loss.

The Dead-End of Corbynismo
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Sep 30, 2015
Latin America has a new export: populist backlash, which first landed on the warm and receptive shores of the Mediterranean, nurturing support for Greece’s Syriza and Spain’s Podemos. Now it has reached the United Kingdom.

Finance and growth – beware the measurement
Thorsten Beck (VoxEU) Sep 30, 2015
The relationship between finance and growth has recently returned to the top of the policy research agenda, with several papers questioning earlier results indicating a positive link. This column suggests a different interpretation of the early findings. While there can be too much finance, as many countries have found out in recent crises, this does not imply that there is too much financial development.

The credit bubble, bears and central bankers Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 1, 2015
What happens when emerging market private money creation slows or goes into reverse?

Painful effects of petrodollar deficit Financial Times Subscription Required
Dan McCrum (FT) Oct 1, 2015
Proceeds from selling oil that flowed back into the global system underpinned credit boom.

The Most Important Thing, and It's Almost a Secret New York Times Subscription Required
Nicholas Kristof (NYT) Oct 1, 2015
Everyone knows about the spread of war and the hopeless intractability of poverty. But everyone is wrong.

Looking for a global growth strategy? Support refugees.
Jim Yong Kim (WP) Oct 1, 2015
Welcoming refugees is the right thing to do both for those who are suffering and for the global economy. Read full column »

TPP Ministers Gather in Atlanta in Renewed Push for Trade Deal
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 32 Oct 1, 2015
Ministers from 12 Pacific Rim countries are in the midst of making another high-stakes push for completing a comprehensive trade deal, with their meetings in the US city of Atlanta currently scheduled to conclude later this week.

UN Members Sign Off on Sustainable Development Agenda
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 32 Oct 1, 2015
The 193 member states of the United Nations last Friday adopted by acclamation a new agenda designed to eradicate extreme poverty, boost inclusive economic growth, address key social priorities such as gender parity and quality education, and secure peaceful and inclusive societies, alongside tackling climate change and environmental degradation within a 15 year timeframe.

Investment Talks, Climate Change in the Spotlight at Xi-Obama Meeting
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 32 Oct 1, 2015
Negotiations for a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) between China and the US are set to ramp up, leaders from both nations said late last week, following high-level meetings in Washington that touched upon a range of key issues in the Sino-American relationship. A series of climate-related announcements also resulted from Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to the US capital city, with the Chinese leader confirming plans that Beijing will launch a national carbon market in 2017.

Trade Inclusiveness, Potential in Focus as WTO Public Forum Kicks Off
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 32 Oct 1, 2015
The importance of making trade more inclusive – as well as the potential for trade to boost growth, eradicate poverty, and create jobs – were among the key themes at the opening of this year's WTO Public Forum, which kicked off on Wednesday morning at the global trade body's Geneva.

Global finance: Why some emerging-market leaders say they want the Fed to hike Economist Subscription Required
Economist Oct 1, 2015
Raising interest rates in America could have a big impact on emerging-market economies.

Adrift: Brazil’s Crisis of Confidence
Mark S. Langevin (Globalist) Oct 1, 2015
Corruption alone does not explain Brazil’s economic malaise.

Adrift: Brazil’s Crisis of Confidence
Mark S. Langevin (Globalist) Oct 1, 2015
Corruption alone does not explain Brazil’s economic malaise.

What Does a Central Banker Know About Climate Change?
Bloomberg View Oct 1, 2015
Society's response to global warming can affect financial stability.

The Rich Get Hit Harder by Inflation Than the Poor
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 1, 2015
But there's no denying the social harm caused by rising income inequality.

Why Commodities Are Back in the 1990s
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Oct 1, 2015
This isn't just about oil. Prices are down across the board.

Emerging Economies Can Turbocharge GDP
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 1, 2015
Bringing huge shadow sectors into the light will result in better growth data.

Life After Schengen
Bill Emmott (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2015
Throughout Europe’s refugee crisis, which has been building for well over two years now, warnings about the threat to the EU's precious Schengen Area of border-free travel have proliferated. But, at a time of diminished confidence in the EU, would reimposing border controls be such a bad thing?

A Fish Called Development
Oby Ezekwesili, José María Figueres and Pascal Lamy (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2015
One of the first tests of the new Sustainable Development Goals will be whether they influence the outcome of other international negotiations. When leaders meet at the tenth WTO Ministerial Conference in Nairobi in December, they will have an opportunity to meet one of the targets: elimination of harmful fisheries subsidies.

China Imposes New Capital Controls
Gordon G. Chang (WA) Oct 1, 2015
Why should the rest of the world care how much money users of Chinese credit cards can withdraw abroad? The new rules, designed to slow capital flight, could spark a global panic.

Mexico’s Crude Capitalism Foreign Policy Subscription Required
Keith Johnson (FP) Oct 1, 2015
The country is providing a model for a new Latin American energy policy. But will it work?

The costs of interest rate liftoff for homeowners: Why central bankers should focus on inflation
Carlos Garriga, Finn Kydland and Roman Šustek (VoxEU) Oct 1, 2015
An important channel for monetary policy transmission is through mortgage markets. This column illustrates how the effects of an interest rate lift-off, from the zero lower bound, on homeowners depend on three factors: the prevalent mortgage type in the economy (fixed or adjustable rate), the speed of the lift-off, and the inflation rate during the lift-off. This channel of transmission suggests that if the purpose of the lift-off is to normalise nominal interest rates without derailing the recovery, the Federal Reserve Bank and the Bank of England should wait until the economies show convincing signs of inflation taking off. Furthermore, the lift-off should be gradual and in line with inflation.

Policy-driven premature deindustrialisation in Malaysia
Jayant Menon and Thiam Hee Ng (VoxEU) Oct 1, 2015
Malaysia’s fortunes have taken a turn for the worse in recent years, both in manufacturing and across the economy in general. This column argues that the country is moving back to processing its agricultural and mineral resources, and that such ‘premature deindustrialisation’ is mostly policy driven. The biggest concern with such structural shifts is that they lead to low-productivity, low-wage manufacturing. Malaysia must address these issues and improve its business environment if it wants to realise its aspirations.

The Scary Debate Over Secular Stagnation Adobe Acrobat Required
J. Bradford DeLong (Milken Institute Review) Oct 1, 2015
An analysis of Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers’ controversial claim that the United States and Europe face a bleak economic future unless government provides an ongoing boost.

China’s Money Goes Global Adobe Acrobat Required
Barry Eichengreen (Milken Institute Review) Oct 1, 2015
Stepping back from the speculation about the prospects for the Chinese renminbi as a global currency to ask why it matters.

Will the Earth Ever Fill Up?
Adam Kucharski (Nautilus) Oct 1, 2015
We’ve predicted and broken human population limits for centuries.

Recovery from the Great Recession Has Varied around the World
Maria A. Arias & Yi Wen (FRBSL Regional Economist) Oct 1, 2015
Since the Great Recession and the subsequent global financial crisis, world output has grown moderately, yet the path of economic recovery has been fragile and uneven.

Trapped: Few Developing Countries Can Climb the Economic Ladder or Stay There Recommended!
Maria A. Arias & Yi Wen (FRBSL Regional Economist) Oct 1, 2015
Although economic growth during the postwar period has lifted many low-income economies from poverty to a middle-income level and other economies to even higher levels of income, very few countries have been able to catch up with the high per capita income levels of the developed world and stay there.

Mark Carney is wrong: humanity still needs fossil fuels Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Lambert (FT) Oct 2, 2015
Central bankers use influence to make economy more stable, not create despair.

How Not to Prevent the Next Financial Meltdown Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Edward P. Lazear (WSJ) Oct 2, 2015
Dodd-Frank’s safeguards against chaos are based on a misdiagnosis of what led to the 2008 crisis.

How poverty affects children’s brains
Kimberly G. Noble (WP) Oct 2, 2015
We should support policies and programs to reduce the poverty that ravages children’s pliable brains. Read full column »

Economic magicians wanted
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 2, 2015
To strive successfully for faster growth requires patience and perspective. There is no magic wand. Read full article »

The Reality Behind the Numbers in China’s Boom-Bust Economy
Yonathan Amselem (Mises Daily) Oct 2, 2015
Last year, the world was stunned by an IMF report which found the Chinese economy larger and more productive than that of the United States, both in terms of raw GDP and purchasing power parity (PPP).

Why China will dominate talks at the IMF meetings in Lima
David Wessel (Brookings) Oct 2, 2015
These three questions will guide conversations among the world’s finance ministers next week in Peru.

Volkswagen: When a German Company Plays With Fire
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Oct 2, 2015
“Exciting” isn’t the first word that comes to mind when thinking of German business. But neither is “fraud.”

The Frenchman Who Reshaped the IMF
Prakash Loungani (Globalist) Oct 2, 2015
Reflections on the work of Olivier, the IMF’s now retired chief economist.

German Reunification Faces Its Last Frontier
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 2, 2015
It's less important for Germany's east to catch up to the west economically than for the country to join together on immigration.

Let Puerto Rico Go Bankrupt
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg View) Oct 2, 2015
The territory's debts are unpayable -- and creditors should take the hit.

The Trans-Pacific Free-Trade Charade
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Adam S. Hersh (Project Syndicate) Oct 2, 2015
As negotiators and ministers from the US and 11 other Pacific Rim countries meet in Atlanta in an effort to finalize the details of the sweeping new Trans-Pacific Partnership, some sober analysis is warranted. The biggest regional trade and investment agreement in history is not what it seems.

Managing Europe’s Perfect Storm
Richard N. Haass (Project Syndicate) Oct 2, 2015
The Chinese often point out that in their language the character for crisis and opportunity are one and the same. But, while it is indeed true that crisis and opportunity often go hand in hand, it is difficult to see much opportunity in Europe’s current circumstances.

Volatility, financial crises and Minsky's hypothesis
Jon Danielsson, Marcela Valenzuela and Ilknur Zer (VoxEU) Oct 2, 2015
Does low volatility in financial markets mean that another financial crisis is more likely? And should we be worried when everything is OK? This column presents the first empirical results that find a strong validation of Minsky's hypothesis – obtained from 200 years of historical cross-sectional data – that low volatility increases the likelihood of a future financial crisis by increasing risk-taking.

A new international database on financial fragility
Panicos Demetriades, David Fielding and Johan Rewilak (VoxEU) Oct 2, 2015
There is a pressing need to understand the characteristics of financial systems that are vulnerable to crises, and the mechanisms through which crises are initiated and propagated. To address such a need, this column presents a new international database on financial fragility for 124 countries between 1998 and 2012. The novelties and main features of the databases are also highlighted.

The world economy: The sticky superpower Economist Subscription Required
Patrick Foulis (Economist) Oct 3, 2015
America remains the world’s economic hegemon even as its share of the global economy has fallen and its politics have turned inwards. That is an unstable combination.

A slowdown among Asian economies: Running out of puff Economist Subscription Required
Economist Oct 3, 2015
The region is not in crisis, but slower growth is hurting.

We need global policy coherence in trade and investment to boost growth
Gabriela Ramos (OECD Insight) Oct 3, 2015
Mounting fears of another slowdown in the global economy call for bolder policy responses. Trade and investment are a case in point.

A Big Boost for the Climate Summit New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Oct 3, 2015
India becomes the last big nation to make a pledge to fight rising greenhouse gas emissions.

Is the Devil in the Details? Estimating Global Poverty
Sanjay Reddy (INET) Oct 3, 2015
Global poverty estimates are too important to be left to non-transparent, back of the envelope calculations (and their calculators). There are practical alternatives that are possible, and they must be openly discussed. If we can’t do that, then let’s at least drop the pretense of reliability, not to mention that of precision. That will serve the world’s poorest rather better.

Policy Makers Skeptical on Preventing Financial Crisis New York Times Subscription Required
Binyamin Appelbaum (NYT) Oct 4, 2015
The 2008 financial crisis convinced most people in the world of central banking that it would be a good idea to try to prevent that kind of thing from happening again.

Volkswagen’s threat to the German model Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Oct 4, 2015
Berlin’s over-reliance on cars is a silly strategy, much like Britain’s dependence on finance.

Emerging Asia: The ill wind of deflation Financial Times Subscription Required
James Kynge and Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Oct 4, 2015
Falling prices hurt profits and spark job losses while fears mount over their effect elsewhere.

How the Fed Saved the Economy Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Ben S. Bernanke (WSJ) Oct 4, 2015
Full employment without inflation is in sight. The central bank did its job. What about everyone else?

Market liquidity in liquid markets: Pitfalls and trends
Matteo Regesta and Alessandro Tentori (VoxEU) Oct 4, 2015
Market liquidity is all about smooth and rapid executions of large transactions. But why is it hard to keep big markets liquid? This column looks at liquidity in fixed-income markets, assesses new trends (as well as the EU’s new market instrument rules), and makes recommendations to policymakers to avoid illiquidity – a timely reminder that the social costs of illiquidity should not be underestimated.

Enemies of the Sun New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Oct 5, 2015
The defenders of Old Energy try their best to ignore technologies which are increasingly viable.

Trans-Pacific Partnership: Good policy, bad politics?
Jennifer Rubin (WP) Oct 5, 2015
Can a trade deal survive presidential politics?

Migration Crisis: How to Break the Cycle of Death and Amnesia
Behzad Yaghmaian (Globalist) Oct 5, 2015
Europe alone cannot be asked to single-handedly shoulder the migration/refugee crisis facing the world.

It’s a gig, but is it a job?
Brian Keeley (OECD Insight) Oct 5, 2015
The “gig economy” has emerged as potentially one of the major shifts in what the Financial Times calls “the new world of work”.

El Nino Might Rescue Global Growth
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 5, 2015
The weather phenomenon might be the answer to central bank prayers.

One Cheer for the TPP
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Oct 5, 2015
For global free-trade champions, regional agreements are less than half a loaf.

The Middle East Meltdown and Global Risk
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Oct 5, 2015
With the US on the way to achieving energy independence, there is a risk that America and its Western allies will consider the Middle East less strategically important than they did in the past. Wishful thinking should not cloud policy judgment: a burning Middle East can destabilize the world in many ways.

How China Is Changing the UN
Janka Oertel (Diplomat) Oct 5, 2015
The Chinese leadership derives legitimacy from its constructive role in matters of peace and development.

What bankers can teach economists Financial Times Subscription Required
Ludger Schuknecht (FT) Oct 5, 2015
Myopia contrasts with more convincing action to repair the financial sector.

Market stabilisers at risk of failure Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Oct 5, 2015
Counter-cyclical influence of institutional investors in doubt.

Sweden immigration: Don’t look back Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Milne (FT) Oct 5, 2015
While the nation remains pro-immigrant, officials admit many refugees from Syria and Iraq struggle to fit in.

The Pharma Compromise on TPP Is Good for US Consumers
Caroline Freund (PIIE) Oct 5, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement announced October 5 had been held up until the final hour by protections sought by the US pharmaceutical industry.

Explaining Eastern Europe's Happiness Gap
Simeon Djankov, Elena Nikolova and Jan Zilinsky (PIIE/FT) Oct 5, 2015
New research confirms that post-communist economies are systematically unhappier than their advanced and developing counterparts in the rest of the world, even after accounting for a variety of factors.

With TPP negotiations complete, the hard work begins
Mireya Solís (Brookings) Oct 5, 2015
We should not lose sight of the fact that more battles will need to be won before the Trans-Pacific Partnership morphs from an agreement in principle to an agreement in reality.

How to Sell the TPP
Bloomberg View Oct 5, 2015
Negotiating the world's most ambitious trade deal might have been the easy part.

Greece Without Illusions
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Oct 5, 2015
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras understands that his freshly reelected government is skating on the thin ice of a fiscal program that cannot succeed and a "reform" agenda that his ministers loathe. With the reality of further austerity measures set to test voters' patience, does Tsipras have any room for maneuver?

No, Depressed American Towns Do Not Look Like Zimbabwe
Annie Lowrey (New York) Oct 5, 2015
No, economically depressed towns in the United States are not “indistinguishable” from economically depressed towns in countries like Zimbabwe.

Emerging economy corporate debt: The threat to financial stability
Viral Acharya, Stephen Cecchetti, José De Gregorio, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Philip R. Lane & Ugo Panizza (VoxEU) Oct 5, 2015
Emerging market firms have borrowed in foreign currency to take advantage of low interest rates. This column argues that when the Fed inevitably raises rates, such borrowing will be a threat to emerging economy financial systems. Yet so long as authorities use their existing prudential tools wisely, the risks appear manageable.

Fixing the global financial safety net
Minouche Shafik (VoxEU) Oct 5, 2015
We need a strong and resilient global financial safety net to reduce the systemic implications of sovereign crises and allow nations to cope with shocks in order to reap the economic rewards of an integrated system of trade and finance. This column argues that the current arrangements are suboptimal – resembling more of a patchwork than a safety net. Drawing on the experience of central banks during the financial crisis, it offers preliminary policy proposals to enhance the effectiveness of the global financial safety net.

China’s Stock Market Crash Is the Latest Crisis of Global Capitalism
Walden Bello (Nation) Oct 5, 2015
Alongside rising protests from farmers and workers, China now confronts a middle class anxious about a slowdown in growth and burned by the stock market bust. It’s a volatile brew.

Beware of the liquidity delusion Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 6, 2015
Conventional wisdom has not had a great run over the past decade so it should be questioned.

Supply and demand gap explains low growth Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Clarida (FT) Oct 6, 2015
Low rates and oil price fall are responses to output discrepancy.

The Pacific Trade Stakes Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Oct 6, 2015
The pact would do much good but the IP details are worrying.

Hillary Clinton faces a tough choice on trade
Ruth Marcus (WP) Oct 6, 2015
She has four options on the Trans-Pacific Partnership; I’m afraid I know which she will choose. Read full article »

Uncertainty, Complex Forces Weigh on Global Growth
IMF Survey Oct 6, 2015
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook foresees lower global growth compared to last year, with modest pickup in advanced economies and a slowing in emerging markets, primarily reflecting weakness in some large emerging economies and oil-exporting countries.

Global Capital Stock 2005-2014: A Natural Benchmark for Multi-Asset Portfolios
Andrea Vacchino and Markus Schuller (OECD Insights) Oct 6, 2015
How can you know whether a multi-asset portfolio is well managed?

The Changed Goal of Transition
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Oct 6, 2015
In a recent paper, "On the Lost Purpose of Transition," Igor Luksic—an economist and policymaker from Montenegro—argues that the early focus of economic transition on achieving free markets has been substituted by "reconstructing paternalism in different forms."

Crowd Financing Is Not Banking
Avinash Persaud (Mint/PIIE) Oct 6, 2015
I have lived through enough financial cycles to be wary of the claims made of financial innovation. It is likely that there has been little financial innovation since grain futures contracts were struck several thousand years ago in the Indus Valley.

The Impact of ‘Currency Wars’ in Oil-Exporting Africa
Dan Steinbock (Economonitor) Oct 6, 2015
Since lower oil prices typically result in depreciation of the oil exporters’ currencies, the dramatic plunge of oil prices has severe implications for sub-Saharan Africa.

Abenomics Is Working
Bloomberg View Oct 6, 2015
Japan's economy is still struggling, but Shinzo Abe has set a new course.

Reform Is Working for Portugal
Bloomberg View Oct 6, 2015
Parliamentary elections proved that people understand the need for reform.

Glencore Gets Clobbered. Who’s Next?
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Oct 6, 2015
Bankruptcies among producers and consolidation will accelerate.

Debt Déjà Vu
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2015
Seven years after the global financial crisis, leverage worldwide is higher than ever, and aggregate demand is still insufficient to drive robust growth. More radical policies – such as major debt write-downs or increased fiscal deficits financed by permanent monetization – will be required to increase global demand.

A New Vision for the World Bank
Nancy Birdsall (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2015
Holding this year's World Bank meetings in Peru, a developing country, represents a welcome shift from the usual Washington, DC venue. One hopes that it portends other necessary shifts, with the Bank reframing its mission and undertaking new tasks – and with its biggest shareholder, the US, rethinking its role.

The Clean-Energy Moonshot
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2015
In 1961, JFK declared his hope that, within the decade, the US would land a person on the moon; eight years later, NASA succeeded, with far-reaching benefits. Now, leading scientists, innovators, and economists are calling for this generation's moonshot: to replace fossil fuels with clean-energy technologies within a generation.

The Corporate-Friendly World of the T.P.P.
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) Oct 6, 2015
This deal has less to do with classic ideas of free trade than with making it easier for American companies to sell their products abroad.

Minimum wages in sub-Saharan Africa: A primer
Haroon Bhorat, Ravi Kanbur & Benjamin Stanwix (VoxEU) Oct 6, 2015
Most sub-Saharan African countries have adopted minimum wage laws. This column argues that this will become increasingly significant for the economy as a whole as the number of covered workers grows, with possible spillover effects to uncovered sectors. Importantly, sub-Saharan Africa displays a bias towards a more aggressive minimum policy relative to the rest of the world. Perhaps due to this, compliance is not very high and the economic consequences of minimum wages are not particularly strong.

‘Fossilist’ finance blocks ‘clean $1tn’ Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pitt-Watson (FT) Oct 7, 2015
Capital markets have unintended bias to unsustainable investment.

'Anyone but China’ club needs a gatecrasher Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Oct 7, 2015
The TPP constrains state economic power in ways that seem almost designed with Beijing in mind.

The demagogues destroying Europe’s ideals Financial Times Subscription Required
Kati Marton (FT) Oct 7, 2015
After Soviet tanks crushed the Hungarian uprising no one caged us behind wire.

Global economy: The case for expansion
Lawrence Summers (FT) Oct 7, 2015
Policymakers must abandon structural reform rhetoric and embrace fiscal stimulus.

Policymakers Face Triad of Challenges to Ensure Financial Stability
IMF Survey Oct 7, 2015
While financial stability has improved in advanced economies, risks remain elevated and continue to rotate toward emerging markets, which now play a greater role in the world economy, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest Global Financial Stability Report.

How Fiscal Policy Can Tame the Commodities Roller Coaster
IMF Survey Oct 7, 2015
Resource-rich economies face enormous challenges to manage volatile and unpredictable commodity prices. In its latest Fiscal Monitor, the IMF examines how countries can tax and spend wisely so that their oil, gas and metals support strong and stable economic development.

Will the Trans-Pacific Partnership Deliver on Its Promises?
K@W Oct 7, 2015
Opinion is sharply divided on the potential impact of the TPP in protecting and c