News & Commentary

International News International news pertinent to international economics is added here, together with several major newspapers and news magazines. The articles, in general, are held for a month on this main page. You can also access the older archived news articles, with the caveat that there is no guarantee that the links remain live. Current news on international financial markets can be found here. Note: Links to the New York Times require a free registration.

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October 2014 Archive

China must resist cheap money temptation Financial Times Subscription Required
George Magnus (FT) Oct 1, 2014
Lower borrowing costs are the last thing needed to rebalance economy.

Tech’s tax defence is washing away Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gapper (FT) Oct 1, 2014
The OECD is making faster progress towards fixing the gaps in the system.

France clings on to its magical thinking Financial Times Subscription Required
Sylvie Goulard (FT) Oct 1, 2014
The economic taboos remain – the best-off are being protected.

A feeble Brics challenge to the dollar Financial Times Subscription Required
Benn Steil (FT) Oct 1, 2014
If the club is to improve on Bretton Woods it will have to do better than this.

Modi faces big hurdles to modernise India Financial Times Subscription Required
Victor Mallet (FT) Oct 1, 2014
PM will need all his skill to achieve aims on jobs and industry.

Merkel should stop Draghi’s meddling Financial Times Subscription Required
Hans-Werner Sinn (FT) Oct 1, 2014
The ECB is overstepping its mandate with anti-deflationary measures.

Shadow Banking is Boon, Bane for Financial System
IMF Survey Oct 1, 2014
Shadow banking is both a boon and a bane for countries, and to reap its benefits, policymakers should minimize the risks it poses to the overall financial system.

Bank Compensation, Governance Need Upgrade to Make Financial System Safer
IMF Survey Oct 1, 2014
Banks with more independent boards of directors that pay executives according to long-term performance tend to incur fewer risks, according to new research from the International Monetary Fund.

On the ropes: can Argentina recover?
Silvia Pavoni (The Banker) Oct 1, 2014
A controversial US ruling against Argentina has shaken the world of sovereign debt restructuring and provided so-called vulture funds with a sharp new litigation strategy. As both multilateral organisations and private sector professionals attempt to stop a lawsuit pandemic, The Banker takes a in-depth look at the key issues.

ECB Sovereign Bond Purchases Remain Unlikely
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Oct 1, 2014
The European Central Bank (ECB) is reportedly on the cusp of another round of euro area sovereign bond purchases. Proponents of such a move say it is necessary if the ECB is to grow its balance sheet by the €750 billion to €1 trillion signaled by its president, Mario Draghi, on September 4. Yet it is probably a mistake to expect this action soon.

What's Wrong With Ignoring Inequality
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 1, 2014
Economic inequality may not be the world's biggest problem, but it isn;';t something we should ignore.

The ECB’s Leap into the Unknown
Jürgen Stark (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2014
The ECB’s decision to double down on monetary stimulus should be regarded as an act of desperation. Indeed, despite the central bank's aggressive approach, monetary policy in the absence of structural economic reform risks being ineffective.

Asia’s Invention Boom
Edward Jung (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2014
China is poised to join the US as a leading global force for innovation, with other Asian countries following closely behind. As Asian innovation comes into its own, the US and other developed countries must find ways to participate – or risk missing the opportunity of the century in a vain bid to recapture bygone supremacy.

Debeaking the Vultures
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Martin Guzman (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2014
In the midst of the ongoing dispute between Argentina and the “vulture funds” that hold its bonds, a broad consensus has emerged concerning the need for sovereign-debt restructuring mechanisms. Otherwise, US court rulings in the vultures' favor will give free rein to those who would sabotage future restructurings.

Brazil’s Cautious Voters
Jorge G. Castañeda (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2014
Brazil's presidential election has come alive as the mixed-race Marina Silva mounts a serious challenge to President Dilma Rousseff. But, despite Brazil's economic troubles, corruption scandals, and recent World Cup humiliation, Rousseff's incumbency advantage is likely to be decisive.

Pitchfork Politics Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Yascha Mounk (FA) Oct 1, 2014
The populist threat to liberal democracy.

A Good Deal Settles the Brazil Cotton Dispute
Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) Oct 2, 2014
A long-running dispute between the United States and Brazil over US cotton subsidies has at last been settled. In an announcement on October 1, the two sides disclosed that their deal has two key terms: The United States will pay Brazil $300 million immediately, for the benefit of Brazilian cotton farmers, and Brazil will drop its case against the United States at the World Trade Organization (WTO), launched in 2002 and won in 2004.

Russia debt freeze lesson for Hong Kong Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Oct 2, 2014
Markets do react to political risk, despite apparent indifference.

The hidden cost of freezing Russia out Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 2, 2014
Instead of having one major cross-border payments system there could eventually be many.

Only a weak euro can save the ECB now Financial Times Subscription Required
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (FT) Oct 2, 2014
Data point to a slowdown which now affects the core of the monetary union.

Pimco: ‘Bonds are meant to be boring’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephen Foley and Tom Braithwaite (FT) Oct 2, 2014
What Bill Gross’s exit means for the industry and the company he left behind.

Singing About Fighting Poverty, Slightly Off-Key Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
William Easterly (WSJ) Oct 2, 2014
Concerts to help the poor are fine, but too bad no one sounds a note about freedom. That's the path to prosperity.

China, trapped in transition
Fareed Zakaria (WP) Oct 2, 2014
What we are seeing in Hong Kong may be an expected, if long-delayed, crisis fueled by economic growth.

The U.S. lets trade undermine justice
Harold Meyerson (WP) Oct 2, 2014
How every major trade pact since Ronald Reagan has undermined labor and environmental protections.

The Lehman Brothers lesson
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 2, 2014
Letting crucial financial institutions fail can backfire on us all.

US, Brazil Clinch Deal Resolving Cotton Trade Row
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 32 Oct 2, 2014
Brazil and the US have reached an agreement to bring their long-running WTO dispute (DS267) over Washington's cotton subsidies to an end, officials confirmed on Wednesday.

Obama, Modi Highlight TFA Impasse Concerns, Call for "Urgent" WTO Consultations
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 32 Oct 2, 2014
US President Barack Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded their leaders' meeting in Washington on Tuesday, directing their officials to "consult urgently" with their fellow trading partners in the hopes of resolving the current WTO impasse on the implementation of the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) and the issue of public food stockholding.

EU Commission Hearings: Malmström Pledges TTIP Political Assessment By Year's End
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 32 Oct 2, 2014
If confirmed later this month as the EU's next Trade Commissioner, Cecilia Malmström will make one of her first objectives a political review of the 28-nation bloc's ongoing trade talks with the US, the Swedish politician told a meeting of the European Parliament Committee on International Trade earlier this week.

Environmental Goods Trade Talks Move Forward
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 32 Oct 2, 2014
A second round of talks towards clinching a tariff-cutting agreement on select environmental goods was held last week in Geneva, Switzerland, with sources reporting significant progress on hammering out the substance of the deal, namely on what types of products to include.

Ukraine's Old, Internal Enemy
Anders Åslund (PIIE) Oct 2, 2014
External threats to Ukraine from Russia have dominated the news for months, but as that situation starts to stabilize the country will need to confront an old, internal enemy: corruption. Transparency International ranks Ukraine 144 out of 177 countries on its corruption-perception index.

China’s Visionary Stimulus
Zhang Jun (Project Syndicate) Oct 2, 2014
China's CN¥4 trillion post-crisis stimulus has been widely criticized for leading to excessive monetary growth. But the policy also helped to expand China’s foreign trade and boost its external financial strength, thereby creating space for the current government to pursue its ambitious reform agenda.

The Lost Donkeys of Science
Abraham Loeb (Project Syndicate) Oct 2, 2014
History is full of unexpected discoveries that changed the world. Despite the obvious risks, science funders should therefore allow researchers the flexibility to pursue new, exciting insights rather than just play it safe and stick to rigid research goals.

Gloomy Outlook for Ghana Where Gold Does Not Shine Anymore
Vikram Mansharamani (YaleGlobal) Oct 2, 2014
A country’s fortunes can rise and fall quickly. Ghana was hailed just two years ago as the world’s fastest growing economy, but now struggles with currency devaluation, poor infrastructure and an entrenched bureaucracy.

New Momentum Can Help Global Economy Beat Mediocre Growth
IMF Survey Oct 2, 2014
Bolder policies can inject a new momentum into the world economy to help it overcome what has been a disappointing recovery, IMF chief Christine Lagarde says. Ahead of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, Lagarde adds that the recovery is brittle, uneven, and beset by risks.

Warning Flags in the Stock Market
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Oct 2, 2014
The stock market rally has pushed shares up to record highs since their March 2009 low. Numerous warning flags are telling us this won't last.

Europe's Wrangling Compounds Cameron Brexit Woes
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 2, 2014
A brouhaha over Britain's European Commission nominee illustrates the difficulties David Cameron faces in renegotiating membership terms of a club it has treated much like Groucho Marx might.

Making Argentina's Debt Debacle a Rarity
Ashoka Mody (Bloomberg View) Oct 2, 2014
If sovereign bonds acted more like stocks, everyone would be better off.

The Vultures of Wall Street
Saskia Sassen and Lisa Lucile Owens (Boston Review) Oct 2, 2014
Hedge funds wrest billions of dollars from governments in debt.

Our Misplaced Faith in Free Trade New York Times Subscription Required
Jeff Madrick (NYT) Oct 3, 2014
A number of countries have gotten rich since the 1970s, but not by following orthodox economic advice.

A Shaky Recovery Runs Out of Steam
Eswar Prasad, Karim Foda and Arnav Sahu (Brookings) Oct 3, 2014
New updates to a Brookings-Financial Times index for tracking the global economic recovery paints a grim picture.

China’s Inscrutable Contraction
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Oct 3, 2014
As China shifts to a more domestic-demand driven, services-oriented economy, a transition to slower trend growth is both inevitable and desirable. But the challenges are immense, and no one should take a soft landing for granted.

The New Philosophers
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Oct 3, 2014
At a recent meeting of G-20 finance ministers, US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew discussed “philosophical differences with some of our friends in Europe” before urging Europeans to do more to boost growth. His reference to philosophy gets to the heart of why Europe is finding it so difficult to escape from its current malaise.

Any developing country can undergo dynamic structural transformation, starting now
Justin Yifu Lin (OECD Insights) Oct 3, 2014
Any developing country – even those with poor infrastructure and a weak business environment – can start on a path to dynamic structural transformation and growth today. How? By facilitating technological innovation and development in industries where it has a comparative advantage.

The disappearance of routine jobs
Matias Cortes, Nir Jaimovich, Christopher J. Nekarda and Henry Siu (VoxEU) Oct 2, 2014
As routine tasks are increasingly automated, middle-wage jobs are becoming rarer. This column documents the changes in labour-market dynamics behind this polarisation, and investigates which workers are affected by it. Flows into middle-wage routine jobs are declining (rather than flows out increasing). Interestingly, routine cognitive workers – who tend to be educated women – are benefiting from this hollowing-out by moving up the occupational ladder.

Where danger lurks
Olivier Blanchard (VoxEU) Oct 3, 2014
Before the 2008 crisis, the mainstream worldview among US macroeconomists was that economic fluctuations were regular and essentially self-correcting. In this column, IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard explains how this benign view of fluctuations took hold in the profession, and what lessons have been learned since the crisis. He argues that macroeconomic policy should aim to keep the economy away from ‘dark corners’, where it can malfunction badly.

Have markets misunderstood Markets the German Court’s decision on OMT?
Helmut Siekmann and Volker Wieland (VoxEU) Oct 3, 2014
In February 2014, the German Federal Constitutional Court declared the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme to be inconsistent with EU law. However, this did not have a negative impact on the OMT and sovereign risk premia continued to decline. This column argues that the benign response of financial markets may be due to an expectation of a likely compromise between the European and German Courts.

The world economy: Wealth without workers, workers without wealth Economist Subscription Required
Economist Oct 4, 2014
The digital revolution is bringing sweeping change to labour markets in both rich and poor worlds.

Biocultural origins of human capital and growth
Oded Galor and Marc Klemp (VoxEU) Oct 4, 2014
The substitution from child quantity to quality has been credited for mankind’s escape from the Malthusian trap and the advent of sustained economic growth. This column argues that biocultural preferences for quality faced positive selection pressure in the pre-growth era, presenting evidence from the founding population of Quebec. Individuals with moderate levels of fecundity had fewer children than those with high fecundity, but produced more descendants in the long run because their children enjoyed higher reproductive success.

Economists Are Blind to the Limits of Growth
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Oct 5, 2014
Economists ignore a crucial constraint on human prosperity: energy.

The new Washington consensus - time to fight rising inequality
Larry Elliot (Guardian) Oct 5, 2014
The year 2014 is when the fight against inequality went mainstream but talk is one thing, action another

Europe’s recovery is in danger of being a dream Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Oct 5, 2014
A euro devaluation would have to be extreme to have a big impact on, say, Italian exporters.

Trade rules must urgently play catch-up Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Oct 5, 2014
WTO battles are fought using texts last updated in 1994.

Monetary policy: An unconventional tool Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 5, 2014
The Fed’s quantitative easing raises questions about whether it has worked and its legacy.

Making the world better
Lina Nilsson and Shankar Sastry (WP) Oct 5, 2014
Development engineers improve the lot of the poorest people.

New era of muddle-nomics
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 5, 2014
After the Great Recession, we don’t know what to do next.

Review Helps IMF Keep Finger on Pulse of Post-Crisis World
IMF Survey Oct 5, 2014
Trade deals: Toxic talks Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Oct 6, 2014
Critics claim that international arbitration has morphed into a weapon that multinationals wield to threaten and influence.

Public investment really is a free lunch Financial Times Subscription Required
Lawrence Summers (FT) Oct 6, 2014
The IMF finds that a dollar of spending increases output by nearly $3.

A new broom sweeps in India’s clean-up Financial Times Subscription Required
Amy Kazmin (FT) Oct 6, 2014
Modi faces a tough task in inspiring people to rid the nation of waste.

The Fourth Major Era of Computing Kicks In Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Andy Kessler (WSJ) Oct 6, 2014
With mobile users now outnumbering desktop users, a new economic cycle has begun.

Here Comes the Internet of Money
Bloomberg View Oct 6, 2014
Financial innovation has widened access to capital, improved its allocation across the economy and made the world more prosperous.

IMF Supports Reforms for More Orderly Sovereign Debt Restructurings
IMF Survey Oct 6, 2014
The IMF’s Executive Board supports reforms to international sovereign bond contracts designed to address collective action problems in sovereign debt restructurings.

China’s Financial Floodgates
José Antonio Ocampo and Kevin P. Gallagher (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2014
As China’s economy starts to slow, following decades of spectacular growth, the government will increasingly be exposed to the siren song of capital-account liberalization. It should not allow itself to be tempted from its tried and tested course by calls for a policy that has led too many emerging economies onto the rocks.

How Low Can Gold Go?
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Oct 6, 2014
Gold has declined to its lowest price in more than four year, yet that doesn't seem to have sunk in with many of its devotees.

America’s Overrated Decline
Joseph S. Nye (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2014
With the approach of the US Congressional elections, questions about the health of America’s political institutions and the future of its global leadership have become rampant, with some citing partisan gridlock as evidence of America’s decline. But is America's situation really that bad?

The Creditworthy Poor?
Marcelo M. Giugale (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2014
Low-income countries are borrowing again – and at low rates – as investors scour global markets for decent yields. But low-income countries' access to private lenders comes with risks that should be highlighted at the outset, before they grow into imminent threats.

Bond markets help lower inflation
Andrew K Rose (VoxEU) Oct 6, 2014
Governments benefit from inflation since the real value of public debt falls but inflation is a tax on money holders. Bond holders are aware of this fact and act accordingly. This column explores empirically the role of bond markets in keeping inflation low. The existence of long, nominal, local-currency bonds lowers inflation by three to four percentage points. The results hold for inflation-targeting countries, and other monetary regimes do not have the same effects.

Has China’s Economy Become More “Standard”?
John G. Fernald, Eric Hsu, and Mark M. Spiegel (FRBSF Economic Letter) Oct 6, 2014
Financial liberalization in China has broad implications, including changing how its central bank’s monetary policy affects the nation’s economy. An estimate of Chinese economic activity and inflation based on a broad set of indicators suggests that the way policy is transmitted to China’s economy has become more like Western market economies in the past decade. Although Chinese monetary policy may actually have exacerbated its economic downturn during the global financial crisis, a move toward stimulatory policy has helped ease its slower growth more recently.

China swoops in on Italy’s power grids and luxury brands Financial Times Subscription Required
Rachel Sanderson (FT) Oct 7, 2014
EU debt crisis opened up periphery countries to Chinese investors.

Chinese translate the European work ethic Financial Times Subscription Required
Robin Kwong and Rachel Sanderson (FT) Oct 7, 2014
Next-generation migrants are more educated, higher skilled.

Trapped in a cycle of credit booms Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 7, 2014
The eurozone seems to be waiting for the Godot of global demand to float it off into debt sustainability.

Falling oil no fillip for shares any more Financial Times Subscription Required
James Mackintosh (FT) Oct 7, 2014
Lower price may have failed to lift shares, but we should wonder why they’ve not fallen by more.

High risk bonds have further to fall Financial Times Subscription Required
Alberto Gallo (FT) Oct 7, 2014
End of Fed QE, low liquidity and crowded trades spell danger.

The Politics of “Free” Trade Agreements
Carmen Dorobat (Mises Daily) Oct 7, 2014
Amidst news of the prolonged worldwide recession, new air strikes, secession attempts, and climate change, international trade — which in 2008 went through its largest crisis in history — has been mostly out of the public eye. Yet we’ve been told not to fear: the World Trade Organization, the foremost global body for promoting multilateral trade, remains watchful, and is optimistic that efforts for liberalization will bear fruit in the near future.

Global Growth Disappoints, Pace of Recovery Uneven and Country-Specific
IMF Survey Oct 7, 2014
An uneven and weak global recovery continues, with the pace of recovery reflecting various country-specific conditions.

How to Energize This Feeble Recovery
Bloomberg View Oct 7, 2014
Why haven't the extraordinary stimulus efforts of some of the world's largest central banks been enough to produce a healthy global recovery?

The BRICs Will Rise Again
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 7, 2014
Yes, emerging markets have stumbled, but that doesn't mean those countries are regressing to the crisis-prone world of old.

Make Your Own Silicon Valley
Ross Buchanan (Project Syndicate) Oct 7, 2014
California may be the world’s largest and best-known technology hub, but innovative startups are emerging almost unnoticed everywhere from Hong Kong to Finland. Clearly, the key features of Silicon Valley that foster innovation and entrepreneurship can be replicated in and adapted to a wide variety of contexts.

The ECB’s Faulty Weapon
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Oct 7, 2014
With inflation in the eurozone stubbornly remaining on a downward trajectory, pressure on the European Central Bank to do “something” to prevent outright deflation is growing. But, given the financial structure of eurozone countries, would the preferred "something" – quantitative easing – actually do the trick?

Is growth in east Africa for real?
Nikoloz Gigineishvili, Paolo Mauro and Ke Wang (VoxEU) Oct 7, 2014
Sustained rapid growth in many African economies has generated a debate on the sources and likely persistence of a so-called “African growth miracle”. This column looks at the factors underlying growth in an especially vibrant part of the continent – the East African Community. It suggests that rapid growth has been for real and reasonably well diversified.

Europe needs shift on public investment Financial Times Subscription Required
Mario Monti (FT) Oct 8, 2014
More flexibility for countries is required to promote growth.

Stick with consensus and sell Treasuries Financial Times Subscription Required
Mark Haefele (FT) Oct 8, 2014
Prepare for yields to rise by more than futures suggest.

What the Dollar’s Rise Tells Us About the Global Economy New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Oct 8, 2014
The U.S. may have more to gain from progress in Europe and Japan than from advantageous exchange rates for American companies.

We’re making progress
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 8, 2014
Viewed over two centuries, economic growth has produced huge gains in incomes and living standards.

The Billionaire Guide to World Growth Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Ruchir Sharma (WSJ) Oct 8, 2014
Rankings of the wealthy are fun to read, but how the rich prospered can tell us much about a country’s health.

Iron ore revolution to benefit China
John Helmer (AT) Oct 8, 2014
The Ukrainian civil war, and its aftermath, economic warfare between the US, the European Union, and Russia, are transforming global flows of the minerals from which steel is made. Starting with iron ore, the future for steelmaking will start at the minehead, not in Australia, nor Brazil, but in West Africa - and to China's benefit.

World Economy Needs Smart Fiscal Policies
IMF Survey Oct 8, 2014
At a time when job creation sits atop the policy agenda globally, fiscal policies can help support job creation—although designing the right policies will depend on conditions in individual countries, says the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor.

Can Anything Go Wrong for the Markets?
Vineer Bhansali (PIMCO) Oct 8, 2014
Risk management in proper portfolio construction consists of a combination of dynamic risk balancing, diversified beta sources, explicit options-based tail hedging and a minimum amount of liquidity. Faced with a long and expanding list of things that could go wrong, uncertainties about the likelihood of each shock and the lack of dependable precursory indicators, it seems that a structurally sound portfolio construction methodology that uses all these tools is essential. Given how inexpensive tail hedging today is in the context of long term-history, it seems that the risk-reward tradeoff also favors hedging.

Resurging Poland
Globalist Oct 8, 2014
Poland has come a long way since the fall of the Soviet Union.

The Problem With Steve Forbes’s New Gold Standard
David Gordon (Mises Daily) Oct 8, 2014
Review of "Money: How the Destruction of the Dollar Threatens the Global Economy."

Policymakers Should Encourage Economic Risk Taking, Keep Financial Excess Under Control
IMF Survey Oct 8, 2014
Policymakers are facing a new global imbalance: not enough economic risk-taking in support of growth, but growing excesses in financial risk-taking, which pose challenges to financial stability.

Inflationistas Are Guilty of Derp
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 8, 2014
People who believed that the Federal Reserve's post-crash policies would set off inflation were wrong then and their wrong now.

How the IMF Can Save the Global Economy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 8, 2014
These five themes will help the world's economic policy elite in its fight against "the new mediocre."

Will China Spark a Currency War?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 8, 2014
China hasn't talked about devaluing its currency, but economic realities may be pushing Beijing in that direction.

China’s Balancing Act
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Oct 8, 2014
China is now struggling with a dilemma common to all advanced credit booms: the longer the boom runs, the greater the danger of wasted investment, huge bad debts, and a major financial crisis. And, though China enjoys more room for maneuver than other countries facing similar credit booms, the risks remain serious.

Design Within Reach Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Nayef Al-Rodhan (FA) Oct 8, 2014
Preparing for the 4-D printing revolution.

China’s migrants thrive in Spain’s crisis Financial Times Subscription Required
Tobias Buck (FT) Oct 9, 2014
Entrepreneurs rely on family support to scale the economic ladder.

America’s economy is cooking on shale Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 9, 2014
As businesses enjoy lower energy costs, a new spirit of collaboration is taking hold.

Sanctions enable us to hurt each another Financial Times Subscription Required
Risto Penttila (FT) Oct 9, 2014
Great powers are practised at unexpected changes in policy.

New tools needed to tame capital flows Financial Times Subscription Required
Paul Tucker (FT) Oct 9, 2014
Ways must be found to prevent trouble spreading from one country to others.

‘Euroglut’ of gloom as Germany weakens Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Oct 9, 2014
Concern that eurozone could become a destabilising global force.

China trumps the competition in Africa Inc Financial Times Subscription Required
Javier Blas (FT) Oct 9, 2014
Commercial influence in the continent is growing despite overtures from the US, Europe and Japan.

A Global Economic Malaise New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Oct 9, 2014
Too many finance ministers and central bankers are unwilling or ill prepared to respond to a world economy on the verge of a recession.

How to Rob a Bank in Bangladesh
Tahmima Anam (NYT) Oct 9, 2014
The hard way is to drill through the wall. Most choose the easy way: take a big loan and default on it.

The Global Warming Statistical Meltdown Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Judith Curry (WSJ) Oct 9, 2014
Mounting evidence suggests that basic assumptions about climate change are mistaken: The numbers don’t add up.

TPP Ministerial Set for Australia, Robb Suggests "Basic Elements" of Deal by Year-End
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 33 Oct 9, 2014
Members of the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks appear to be ramping up their negotiating efforts in the hopes of reaching the main elements of an agreement by the end of this year, with Australia confirming last week that it would be hosting a ministerial-level meeting in Sydney later this month.

Argentina Import Restrictions Case to Undergo WTO Appeal
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 33 Oct 9, 2014
The WTO Appellate Body is set to hear appeals on the dispute over Buenos Aires' controversial import restrictions, with the EU, Japan, and Argentina all filing notices of appeal with the global trade arbiter over the past fortnight.

New IMF Forecasts Indicate Weaker Global Growth Ahead of Washington Meetings
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 33 Oct 9, 2014
After a year fraught with uneven growth and social and political turmoil across the Middle East, West Africa, East Asia, and Eastern Europe, new data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other organisations this week are indicating that the global economy could potentially pay the price.

In my view: Development depends on realising the potential of taxation
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (OECD Insights)( Oct 9, 2014
Developing country governments would do well to strengthen their tax systems so they can mobilise the domestic resources they need to finance their own development. This is particularly true for African countries, where the recent trend of decreasing ODA shows no sign of reversing.

Is China's Bubble the Next Financial Crisis?
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Oct 9, 2014
China's credit boom is running into diminishing returns.

The Evolution of Devolution
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Oct 9, 2014
Devolution is coming to the United Kingdom and other countries, and its appeal is undeniable. But it is important to know where devolution ends and dysfunction begins.

In Farageland
James Meek (LRB) Oct 9, 2014
Farage says he wants a Switzerland-style trade relationship with the EU, and an Australian-style immigration system with the world: fewer Polish builders, more Indian scientists. But this isn’t the message Ukip is putting out on the street, where EU membership isn’t an issue. Immigration is. All immigration. Foreignness. Otherness

Getting Real About China New York Times Subscription Required
Wesley K. Clark (NYT) Oct 10, 2014
“Constructive engagement” is failing. What’s needed is a strong America that can defend the international order.

How Saving Grows the Economy
Dan Sanchez (Mises Daily) Oct 10, 2014
Back in the 1980s, Irwin Schiff, anti-tax activist, political prisoner, and father of free-market pundit Peter Schiff, wrote a marvelous comic book titled How an Economy Grows and Why It Doesn’t, which teaches economic principles through a light-hearted story.

Why Is the Fed Thinking Globally? 
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 10, 2014
The Fed usually acts as if the U.S. is a closed economy. Suddenly it is fretting about global issues and the dollar.

India's Most Laughable Laws
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Oct 10, 2014
India's Narendra Modi says he wants to scrap antiquated laws. He should worry less about a ban on balloons, though, than inefficient taxes and extortionate regulations.

Practical Policy Prescriptions to Help Offset Geopolitical Uncertainties
Scott A. Mather & Greg E. Sharenow (PIMCO) Oct 10, 2014
We believe Europe should relax fiscal budget constraints to allow for fiscal stimulus to offset any economic drag, while maintaining extremely accommodative monetary policy. The U.S. and its relatively newfound energy renaissance can also play an important role in supporting Europe and the global economy by signaling its intention to compete for energy market share. In addition, long-term planning should begin today to reduce Europe's energy dependency on Russia, and the U.S. should revisit current export policy to send a powerful signal to the markets and allies over the security of future supplies.

TTIP: Transatlantic Blues?
Kathryn Hauser (Globalist) Oct 10, 2014
The TTIP negotiators have lost their way. Time for a reset.

China's Economy Slides–and Capital Flees
Gordon G. Chang (World Affairs) Oct 10, 2014
The Chinese now believe that high growth is normal, and they will probably not react well to a long downturn, especially given the political tensions already simmering in the one-party state.

Regulating the global insurance industry: Motivations and challenges
Christian Thimann (VoxEU) Oct 10, 2014
Regulation of the global insurance industry, an emerging challenge in international finance, has two central objectives: strengthening the oversight of insurance companies designated ‘systemically important’; and designing a global capital standard for internationally active insurers. This column argues that it is a Herculean task because the business model of insurance is less globalised than other areas in finance; because global regulators have less experience of insurance than banking where global standards have been pursued for a quarter of a century; and because, as yet, there is limited research-based understanding of the insurance business and its interactions with the financial system and the real economy. But in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the AIG disaster, regulators are under strong pressure to make progress.

Buybacks: Money well spent? Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Mackenzie, Tom Braithwaite and Nicole Bullock (FT) Oct 12, 2014
Critics say that the boom has diverted corporate cash from creating jobs and investment.

Low rates jam the economy’s vital signals Financial Times Subscription Required
James Grant (FT) Oct 12, 2014
Actions are no less subversive even if taken under the banner of the law.

Germany’s weak point is export strength Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Oct 12, 2014
Wherever stimulus comes from, it will not be from Europe’s powerhouse.

China’s policy follows a random path Financial Times Subscription Required
Joe Zhan (FT) Oct 12, 2014
The Chinese are firmly attached to the status quo, whatever that happens to be.

Glencore’s ambitions have global impact Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Ford (FT) Oct 12, 2014
A tie-up with Rio Tinto could make them too dominant.

Europe’s economic taboos cannot endure Financial Times Subscription Required
Reza Moghadam (FT) Oct 12, 2014
Skip the stages of grief and accept a comprehensive solution.

‘Normal’ interest rates are distant dream Financial Times Subscription Required
Russ Koesterich (FT) Oct 12, 2014
Short-term rates will rise but a return to historic levels is a long way off.

Will Boom Lead to Bust in Silicon Valley? New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Oct 12, 2014
There are signs that the technology industry has entered another period of irrational exuberance.

Why the world economy sputters
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 12, 2014
There are three pervasive problems that foster pessimism.

Yuan Bonds and Other U.K. Innovations
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 12, 2014
The U.K. plans to borrow yuan to cement London's position as Europe's financial center, in an echo of its tactics a quarter of a century ago when the Euro first posed a threat.

The great mortgaging
Òscar Jordà, Alan Taylor, Moritz Schularick (VoxEU) Oct 12, 2014
The Global Crisis prompted Lord Adair Turner to ask if the growth of the financial sector has been socially useful, catalysing an ongoing debate. This column turns to economic history to investigate whether the financial sector is too big. New long-run, disaggregated data on banks’ balance sheets show that mortgage lending by banks has been the driving force behind the financialisation of advanced economies. Real estate lending booms are chiefly responsible for financial crises and weak recoveries.

Indonesia: Now for the hard part Financial Times Subscription Required
Ben Bland (FT) Oct 13, 2014
External economic pressures are building at a time when the new president has little room for manoeuvre

Populism distracts globalisation’s losers Financial Times Subscription Required
Rajan Ganesh (FT) Oct 13, 2014
Who is worse: the elitist who shrugs at people left behind or the huckster who offers false hope?

Bond markets suggest we are all Japanese Financial Times Subscription Required
Peter Tasker (FT) Oct 13, 2014
Low yields have an easy explanation: declining growth and low inflation.

Bernanke’s failed mortgage application exposes the flaw in banking Financial Times Subscription Required
Amir Sufi (FT) Oct 13, 2014
We must stop providing bailouts based on unrealistic models.

Looking past the (West’s) end of the nose
Jim O‘Neill and Alessio Terzi (Bruegel) Oct 13, 2014
World GDP is in a soft patch, but global growth trend is on the rise.

The growing pains of investment treaties
Angel Gurría (OECD Insight) Oct 13, 2014
International investment treaties are in the spotlight.

Germany Sabotages Europe
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 13, 2014
It's time the Bundesbank stopped grousing and started backing Mario Draghi's efforts to resuscitate the euro zone economy.

The Centennial Crisis Cycle and the Middle East
Meghnad Desai (Globalist) Oct 13, 2014
How the West is implicated in the current fires burning the Middle East

A Recovery Driven by Manufacturing? It's Not Happening, George
David G. Blanchflower (Independent/PIIE) Oct 13, 2014
I was in the United States at a conference last week with the chief economist at Citibank and the former MPC external member Willem Buiter, who has long been my hero: In March 1999 he became the only person who ever voted for a cut not divisible by 25-the records show he voted to cut by 40 basis points!

Venezuela’s Spectacular Underperformance
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2014
Venezuela is a major oil-exporting economy that is so badly mismanaged that real (inflation-adjusted) per capita GDP today is 2% lower than it was in 1970, despite a ten-fold increase in oil prices. And now its president is lashing out at academics who have the temerity to point that out.

Are Services the New Manufactures?
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2014
Ever since the Industrial Revolution, manufacturing has been the key to rapid economic growth. Though optimists believe that service industries can play the role of "growth escalator" that manufacturing did in the past, two key differences between the sectors suggest otherwise.

The Procurement Goldmine
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2014
Government procurement is like mining for gold: there are serious risks and potentially massive payoffs. With the right approach, governments can benefit from the latter, without falling victim to the former.

The Age of Vulnerability
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2014
While many countries succeeded in moving people out of poverty, the welfare of a growing number is precarious. An economic system that fails to deliver gains for most of its citizens, and in which a rising share of the population faces increasing insecurity, is, in a fundamental sense, a failed economic system.

Stock-Market Optimists Face a Big Challenge
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 13, 2014
It's getting harder for central bankers to levitate markets.

Finland Downgrade Should Wake Up All Europe
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 13, 2014
Finland's downgrade by S&P tells European governments that they ought to improve their economies' competitiveness.

The New Washington Consensus? Deutschland Über Alles
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Oct 14, 2014
The art of casting Germany both as chief villain and magic wand of the global economy.

World can do better than ‘new mediocre’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 14, 2014
We must launch well-crafted reforms in both emerging and high-income economies.

Sensible for Fed to speak out on dollar Financial Times Subscription Required
Robin Harding (FT) Oct 14, 2014
Central bank’s words serve as counterweight to currency’s rise.

Big bond fund outflows are risk for banks Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Oct 14, 2014
Changes in market structure raise chance of extreme volatility.

Infrastructure bars India’s growth path Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Oct 14, 2014
Investment climate remains inhospitable and cost of capital too high.

A Pump War? New York Times Subscription Required
Thomas L. Friedman (NYT) Oct 14, 2014
The decline in oil prices is no accident. What’s really playing out here?

China Slowdown? Don't Worry About It
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 14, 2014
A slowdown in the Chinese economy wouldn't be good news for the U.S. economy, but it wouldn't do much harm either.

They Talked. They Left. Now What? 
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 14, 2014
Global economic leaders know what they have to do to save a weak recovery. Why aren't they doing it?

Private Companies Are Driving China's Growth
Peter R. Orszag (Bloomberg View) Oct 14, 2014
The prevailing image of state capitalism in China is dated and wrong. As a new book demonstrates, private companies are now the country's main engine of economic growth.

Eurozone Budgets Under the Spotlight
John Bruton (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2014
Eurozone governments have enjoyed an extended period of low interest rates. But, as indebted governments submit their budgets to the European Commission for review, they should consider the fiscal impact of a sudden reversal in bond-market sentiment, which is neither entirely rational nor sympathetic to political rhetoric.

China’s Silk Road Revival
Shashi Tharoor (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2014
The phrase “Silk Road” evokes a romantic image – half history, half myth – of tented camel caravans winding their way across the trackless deserts and mountains of Central Asia. But the Silk Road is not just part of a fabled past; it is an important feature of China’s current foreign policy.

Dirty Development Money
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2014
One of the biggest problems affecting the world’s poor is one that few have ever heard about: illicit financial flows. With the world preparing to establish the specific targets that will guide global development efforts for the next 15 years, the time to change that is now.

If Draghi Buys Bonds, He Is Really Buying Time
Andrew Bosomworth (PIMCO/Financial News) Oct 14, 2014
It was John Maynard Keynes who invented the phrase “liquidity trap” to describe how central bank policies designed to resuscitate an economy could fail when interest rates get close to zero. Even though he was writing 70 years ago, he could have been describing the situation in the eurozone today.

TPP, China and the Future of Global Trade Order
Shuaihua Cheng (YaleGlobal) Oct 14, 2014
China could ask to join TPP, but would prefer finalizing the Doha Round with the WTO

After QE: Taking off the stabilisers Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Oct 15, 2014
Markets are braced for increased volatility as central banks signal an end to unlimited liquidity.

Technology will not kill the banks Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gapper (FT) Oct 15, 2014
Silicon Valley does not want a new financial system, but rather to ride on the existing one.

Weak yen is no panacea but Abe needs it Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Oct 15, 2014
Depreciation is the central bank’s most potent tool. If it falters so could the reflation experiment.

In praise of tax inversions Financial Times Subscription Required
James Mackintosh (FT) Oct 15, 2014
While tax-driven deals are not yet dead, they are pallid and shaky.

Rocking the markets Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Guthrie (FT) Oct 15, 2014
Crashing chords of final abandonment of view US had decoupled from a slowing world.

Winners and losers from oil price plunge Financial Times Subscription Required
Ed Morse (FT) Oct 15, 2014
Brent crude at $80 would have effect of huge global QE programme.

As Oil Prices Plummet, Saudi Arabia Faces a Test of Strategy New York Times Subscription Required
Ben Hubbard and Clifford Krauss (NYT) Oct 15, 2014
Saudi officials have signaled that they are prepared to endure reduced profits rather than cut production in an effort to prop up prices, as they did to their later regret in the early 1980s.

A Pump War? New York Times Subscription Required
Thomas L. Friedman (NYT) Oct 15, 2014
The decline in oil prices is no accident. What’s really playing out here?

The Self-Inflicted U.S. Brain Drain Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Michael S. Malone (WSJ) Oct 15, 2014
Up to 1.5 million skilled workers are stuck in immigration limbo. Many give up and go home.

A not-so-simple fix for the economy
Charles Lane (WP) Oct 15, 2014
The IMF’s proposal to jump-start the global economy through infrastructure comes with risks.

The Economic Consequences of Sex
Mukush Eswaran (Project Syndicate) Oct 15, 2014
If assumptions about gender (such as innate differences in abilities) have become intellectually untenable, why do gender differences in economic outcomes persist? Economists have recently identified a fundamental reason in a phenomenon that remains pervasive: the gap in autonomy (or bargaining power) between women and men.

New Battlegrounds in Development Finance
Nancy Alexander and Francis A. Kornegay (Project Syndicate) Oct 15, 2014
Infrastructure financing in the developing world is relying increasingly on public-private partnerships. The new appeal of PPPs may redefine not just development economics, but also the overall relationship between rich and poor countries – though not necessarily for the better.

Energy Limits Won't Hold Back Growth
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 15, 2014
The world's limited supplies of energy probably won't stifle growth, an argument that some scientists have been making.

China's Next Export: Deflation
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 15, 2014
Inflation hawks should take a closer look at China's most recent data, which contain worrying implications for efforts to roll back easy-money policies around the world.

Why Putin and Merkel Don't Put Growth First
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 15, 2014
Politicians as different as Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin have valid reasons for choosing policies that do not lead to immediate economic growth.

October's Wild Ride Isn't Over Yet
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 15, 2014
Asset losses are a hard lesson for investors who were lulled by what they believed was a low-growth, low-volatility equilibrium.

Indian Economy to Overtake China's
Gordon G. Chang (World Affairs) Oct 15, 2014
Narendra Modi’s victory this year signaled a clear rejection of the socialism of India’s founders. The shift has some analysts predicting a sea of change for the country’s economy.

Why We Must Break Up the Financial Herd
Avinash D. Persaud (QFinance) Oct 15, 2014
Financial firms can play an important role in restoring growth but only as part of a system that does not accentuate boom and bust.

Restoring financial stability with economic growth
James Boughton (VoxEU) Oct 15, 2014
The international financial system is not working fine and reforms of regional and global institutions are much needed. This column discusses some of the transformations that the IMF could implement in order to keep pace with the changes in the world economy. One problem for the credibility of the IMF is the G20 in its current design and organisation. Institutional reforms, however, should be combined with advances in economic policy in order to promote economic growth and financial stability.

Markets are parched for liquidity despite a flood of cash Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 16, 2014
This week’s price gyrations show that the degree to which assets can be traded matters hugely.

Deflation threat to Draghi’s credibility Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Oct 16, 2014
Markets expect inflation to undershoot central bank targets.

The markets are right to be anxious Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephen King (FT) Oct 16, 2014
The US no longer controls its own destiny nor, indeed, the destiny of others.

Living in a new industrial revolution Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrew McAfee (FT) Oct 16, 2014
Nothing changes the world like technology. Here’s why I’m optimistic.

What Markets Will New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Oct 16, 2014
The financial turmoil of the past few days, especially in Europe, have policy crusaders again sure that they know what the markets are asking for.

Global Markets Catch the Chinese Flu Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Ruchir Sharma (WSJ) Oct 16, 2014
The ill effects of Beijing’s borrowing and spending binge are rippling through the world economy.

What the 2014 Oil Crash Means
Michael Levi (Politico) Oct 16, 2014
Prices are falling—fast. Is that good or bad news for the United States?

When meetings matter—The World Bank and IMF Convene
Robert Kahn (CFR) Oct 16, 2014
There are many reasons cited for this week’s market turndown and risk pullback, including concerns about global growth, Ebola, turmoil in the Middle East, and excessive investor comfort from easy money. What has been less commented on is the role played by last weekend’s IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings.

How Wall Street is Killing Big Oil
Deepak Gopinath (YaleGlobal) Oct 16, 2014
Companies rely on stock markets to raise money by selling small shares of ownership to investors. But investors may be killing rather than boosting major private energy companies. Once reliable market beaters, Big Oil shares are lagging.

A long-term view on inequality
Brian Keeley (OECD Insights) Oct 16, 2014
Even though poverty is not what it once was, humanity is still divided between haves and the have-nots.

IMF Calls for Structural Reforms, Cooperation to Spur Global Growth
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 34 Oct 16, 2014
Structural reforms will be key in shoring up the fragile global economic recovery, particularly in light of increased downside risks, said the world’s finance chiefs and central bankers following the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Annual Meetings in Washington this past weekend.

EU Releases TTIP Negotiating Mandate
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 34 Oct 16, 2014
EU governments last Thursday decided to make public negotiating instructions given to the European Commission in June 2013 for hammering out the bloc’s ongoing transatlantic trade talks with the US.

To Unleash an Infrastructure Boom, Turn to the Private Sector
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Tyler Moran (PIIE) Oct 16, 2014
With the world economy suffering, neither monetary nor fiscal nostrums are giving much relief. Easy money has boosted bond and equity prices, as well as housing values, but it has done little to lift wages or employment. Fiscal expansion is constrained by politics, not economics. Debt and deficit hawks are ascendant in Germany and elsewhere, and in too many influential circles "Keynes" has become a pejorative word.

Is Asia Ready for Another Wild Ride?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2014
Asia rode out the last recession in relative style. But the methods it employed then are no longer sustainable in the face of renewed global volatility.

High-Speed Traders Put a Bit Too Much Gravy on Their Meat
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2014
It can be hard to tell manipulative from non-manipulative strategies, but naming your strategies "Meat" and "Gravy" is a clue.

France Gets Whacked by the Bond Market
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2014
If I was the head of bond sales for France, I'd be somewhat worried that investors seem to be downgrading my status to that of peripheral European borrower.

Greece Still Needs Intensive Care
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2014
Greece wants to discharge itself from the supervision that accompanied its 2010 transfusion of emergency aid worth 240 billion euros. The bond market, though, says Greece still needs intensive care.

China’s Vicious Growth Circle
Keyu Jin (Project Syndicate) Oct 16, 2014
Most economists have a reason to be worried about China’s economy – whether it be low consumption, industrial overcapacity, environmental degradation, or government interventions. What many fail to recognize is that these are merely the symptoms of a single underlying problem: China’s skewed growth model.

Putin Leaves Private Businesses in the Cold
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2014
The erstwhile heroes of Russian private business don't see a role for themselves in Vladimir Putin's new, isolationist Russia.

The Spider of Finance
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Oct 16, 2014
The Financial Stability Board has now been in operation for five years. Though no international audit of its performance has been undertaken, a fair verdict would be that the FSB has done no more and no less than what its political masters have been prepared to allow it to do.

Come Home, Europeans Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Edoardo Campanella (FA) Oct 16, 2014
Europe's brain drain problem is becoming a major crisis.

Oil Bust Has Brazil in Deep Water
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Oct 17, 2014
Petrobras has long been perp-walked to a different set of rules.

Buy a Yacht, Save the World
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Oct 17, 2014
Global growth depends increasingly on U.S. consumers buying stuff they don't need.

How India Can Bust Inflation
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Oct 17, 2014
Things are looking up for Indian central banker Raghuram Rajan. Now's the time to settle outstanding questions about how his bank works.

The Inequality Trifecta
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Oct 17, 2014
Perhaps the most striking disconnect at the annual IMF/World Bank meetings was the disparity between participants’ interest in discussions of inequality and the ongoing lack of a formal action plan for governments to address it. This represents a profound failure of policy imagination – one that must urgently be addressed.

Unleashing Africa’s Girl Power
Joaquim Chissano (Project Syndicate) Oct 17, 2014
Though Sub-Saharan Africa’s economies have boomed in recent years, the headline figures mask longer-term problems – not least, an over-reliance on natural resources and chronic inequalities. Inclusive, sustainable growth is achievable, but only by tapping the continent’s greatest reserve of energy and creativity: African women.

Four Reasons the Bernanke-Yellen Asset-Price Inflation May Be Nearing Its End
Joseph T. Salerno (Mises Daily) Oct 17, 2014
There are strong indications that the remarkable run up of asset prices in the last few years is beginning to run out of steam and may be on the verge of collapse. We will leave aside the question of whether the asset inflation is symptomatic of a garden-variety inflationary boom or is a more virulent bubble phenomenon in which prices are rising today simply because buyers anticipate that they will rise tomorrow.

When a Stock Market Theory Is Contagious New York Times Subscription Required
Robert J. Shiller (NYT) Oct 18, 2014
Is the world economy suffering from “secular stagnation”? True or false, the idea alone could keep hurting stock prices.

Europe’s Essential Unity
José Manuel Barroso (Project Syndicate) Oct 18, 2014
Over the past ten years, the EU has endured a series of unprecedented crises, the likes of which it is unlikely to see again. But other, no less daunting challenges lie ahead, and Europeans would do well to remember the lessons learned along the way.

The great hole of China Economist Subscription Required
Economist Oct 18, 2014
Its debt will not drag down the world economy, but it risks zombifying the country’s financial system.

What China Means by 'Rule of Law' New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Gewirtz (NYT) Oct 19, 2014
Every reform made or promised in China provides an opening.

Healthier and wealthier – the changing face of growing old Financial Times Subscription Required
Norma Cohen (FT) Oct 19, 2014
By 2050 those aged over 65 will outnumber children under five. The first part of a series on ageing populations looks at how that demographic shift is creating a new and powerful consumer class.

Eurozone stagnation is a greater threat than debt Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Oct 19, 2014
Monetary policy can boost markets in the shortrun, but this cannot be sustained indefinitely.

Russia cannot stand low oil prices forever Financial Times Subscription Required
Sergei Guriev (FT) Oct 19, 2014
The government will have either to cut spending or raise taxes.

Oil gush keeps prices low as fear is high Financial Times Subscription Required
Daniel Yergin (FT) Oct 19, 2014
There is a surplus of geopolitical risk in the world, but a greater surplus of oil.

Hollande’s road to reform is tortuous Financial Times Subscription Required
Hugh Carnegy (FT) Oct 19, 2014
France’s president has accelerated change, but too slowly to avoid a clash with Brussels over deficit reduction.

The Poor and the Sick Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Fran Quigley (FA) Oct 19, 2014
What Cholera and Ebola have in common.

Ebola highlights Nigeria’s potential Financial Times Subscription Required
William Wallis (FT) Oct 20, 2014
Nation faces battle against corruption and Islamist insurgency.

Pick fund managers with skin in the game Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephen Foley (FT) Oct 20, 2014
What if there was a way to identify market beaters in long run?

Market nerves do not portend global slump Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrew Sentance (FT) Oct 20, 2014
Negative focus colours interpretation of economic data.

A challenge to the old guard of finance Financial Times Subscription Required
Eswar Prasad (FT) Oct 20, 2014
The IMF’s is able to assess countries’ financial and macroeconomic policies.

Borders and budgets could lay Europe low Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Oct 20, 2014
Unrest over sovereignty issues risks pushing EU to the point of no return.

China Versus America New York Times Subscription Required
Roger Cohen (NYT) Oct 20, 2014
How Chinese "harmony" and American "freedom" produce the dangerous clash of two exceptionalisms.

Strong Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, but Pockets of Difficulty
IMF Survey Oct 20, 2014
Strong growth in most of sub-Saharan Africa’s economies should support robust regional expansion in 2014 and 2015, the IMF’s regional outlook says. In most countries, growth benefits from a blend of infrastructure investment, expanding services, and agricultural output.

The Eurozone is About Tough Love
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Oct 20, 2014
Help is available to countries in trouble – in exchange for meeting conditions.

The ECB’s Battle With the Markets: Home Truths from the Eurozone
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Oct 21, 2014
Amidst global stock market turmoil, what about Europe’s fundamentals?

The gloves are off in the sovereign debt debate
Brian Caplen (The Banker) Oct 20, 2014
The clauses attached to Kazakhstan's latest sovereign bond show that governments are squaring up to so-called vulture funds in the wake of Argentina's recent default.

America, the Balanced
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Oct 20, 2014
It may be time to stop worrying about the US current-account deficit – and not only because of adjustment at home and in China. It is possible that, properly measured, America's true deficits were smaller than has been reported, and even that, in some years, they were not there at all.

Brazil’s Institutional Limbo
Camila Villard Duran (Project Syndicate) Oct 20, 2014
Brazil's presidential election will determine the future of the central bank – and therefore the country's macroeconomic trajectory. The 50-year old institution is ripe for reform, but neither candidate seems ready to give it the independence it needs, or to ensure that it is truly accountable to citizens.

4 Lessons of a Wild Market Week
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 20, 2014
Almost anything makes markets jittery these days, and investors are conditioned to rely on the Fed for support.

A Little Volatility Can Be Good for You
Bloomberg View Oct 20, 2014
Investors are complaining that regulations are making big banks less willing to buy when everyone wants to sell. Why would that be bad?

Reasons to be gloomy about EM prospects Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Oct 21, 2014
Asia’s export-led growth model is unlikely to work as well in future.

Emerging markets foster gloom Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Oct 21, 2014
Asia’s export-led growth model requires a rethink after a decade of success.

Stakes high for Europe bank stress tests Financial Times Subscription Required
Huw van Steenis (FT) Oct 21, 2014
Good news on key issue of assisting capital-raising.

ECB leak a tonic for volatile Italy Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Oct 21, 2014
Bigger, more liquid markets can sometimes be more responsive under stress.

Reform alone is no solution for eurozone Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 21, 2014
A policy that may work for Germany alone cannot work for an economy more than three times as big.

Corporate India frets over debt levels Financial Times Subscription Required
James Crabtree (FT) Oct 21, 2014
Nation’s industrial and banking sectors enter new political era still undercapitalised.

Rouhani's 'economic package' is empty
Ismael Hossein-Zadeh (AT) Oct 21, 2014
The belief of Iran's Hassan Rouhani administration that the establishment of better relations with the US would serve as a panacea to the country's economic woes has effectively linked any chance of financial revival with an uncertain negotiation process. Perceptions that an unrestrained integration into global capitalism and wholesale privatization will end the West's imperialist policy on Iran are equally naive.

The Similarities Between Germany and China
George Friedman (Stratfor) Oct 21, 2014
I returned last weekend from a month-long trip to both East Asia and Europe. I discovered three things:

The Saudis Aren't in Control of the Oil Market Any Longer
Nick Butler (Globalist) Oct 21, 2014
The brave new world where excess oil supply meets static demand.

New Revenues Can Offset Africa’s Rising Income Inequality
IMF Survey Oct 21, 2014
Combating rising income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa will require a pragmatic, multipronged approach to uncover new sources of revenue while also enabling critical investments in human capital, participants agree at a seminar in Washington, D.C.

Is Hong Kong China's Future?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 21, 2014
Many people have given up hope of making China look more like Hong Kong. In fact, the mainland's future looks much like that of the former British colony's present.

Inheritance and Inequality
Edward N. Wolff (Project Syndicate) Oct 21, 2014
In his book Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Thomas Piketty emphasizes the rising share of inheritances and gifts in household wealth over time. This seems like a shocking revelation, implying ever-rising wealth inequality, but is it correct?

The Moral Economy of Debt
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Oct 21, 2014
The creditor-debtor relationship embodies no iron law of morality; rather, it is a social relationship that always must be negotiated. When quantitative precision and an unyielding approach to debt obligations are the rule, conflict and penury soon follow.

What Large Data Flows Mean for U.S.-EU Trade
Joshua Meltzer (Brookings) Oct 21, 2014
Cross-border data flows between the U.S. and Europe are the highest in the world. Joshua Meltzer examines what this means for trade and investment opportunities.

Forward guidance: Human plans and divine laughter
David Miles (VoxEU) Oct 21, 2014
Many central banks embrace forward guidance by announcing expected interest rate paths. But how likely it is that actual rates will be close to expected ones? This column argues that quantifying such uncertainty poses great difficulties. Precise probability statements in a world of uncertainty (not just risk) can be misleading. It might be better to rely on qualitative guidance such as: “Interest rate rises will probably be gradual and likely to be to a level below the old normal”.

Sovereign-debt relief and its aftermath: The 1930s, the 1990s, the future?
Carmen M Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch (VoxEU) Oct 21, 2014
To work towards resolving Europe’s ongoing debt crisis this column looks to the past. From the recent emerging market debt crisis (1980s-2000s) and the interwar episode of the 1920s-1930s we learn that debt write-downs and defaults are able to be postponed but not prevented. Punishment for default is temporary, sometimes followed by a renewed surge in borrowing that leads to another crisis.

Financial Market Cognitive Dissonance
Harley Bassman (PIMCO) Oct 21, 2014
Presently, the financial markets are confronted with two conflicting pricing structures: a U.S. dollar yield curve that anticipates a significant increase in interest rates over the medium term, and an options market that offers "rate insurance" at the lowest prices in decades. Markets may appear confounded by cognitive dissonance, but forward-looking investors can peer through the fog: A return to a more recognizable risk/return profile, even if market returns are lower overall (as may well be the case over the secular horizon), could help investors more confidently align longer-term objectives with strategies.

The myopic western view of China’s rise Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Jacques (FT) Oct 22, 2014
The reforms that count tend to conform to the western model.

High stakes to keep rates low Financial Times Subscription Required
Chris Giles (FT) Oct 22, 2014
The case for the 0.5 per cent interest rate is weakening.

Marshall’s grand plan applies to Ukraine Financial Times Subscription Required
Anders Aslund (FT) Oct 22, 2014
The west will have to co-operate to stop Putin and should do so now.

China’s Missing Business Cycle Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Oct 22, 2014
A slowdown will make the real health of the economy clearer.

Millionaire’s club expands
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 22, 2014
A new study puts the worldwide total at 35 million in 2014.

Pity Poor Germany? Leadership Comes with Responsibility
Richard Phillips (Globalist) Oct 22, 2014
How can an economy, which represents only 4.9% of global GDP, be so central to the global economic outlook?

Europe’s Brush with Debt
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) Oct 22, 2014
French Prime Minister Manuel Valls and his Italian counterpart, Matteo Renzi, refuse to comply with the eurozone's 2012 fiscal compact; instead, they intend to run up fresh debts. Their stance highlights a fundamental flaw in the European Monetary Union’s structure – one that Europe’s leaders must address before it is too late.

The TPP’s Missing Ingredient
Simon Johnson (Simon Johnson) Oct 22, 2014
The typical approach when seeking to finalize an agreement aimed at reducing trade barriers is to ask for less, not more, from those on the other side of the table. But the Trans-Pacific Partnership is different: It will work only if the US insists that participating countries do not engage in currency manipulation.

The New Challenge to Market Democracies
William A. Galston (Brookings) Oct 22, 2014
We’ve lost sight of what makes democracy work: recommendations for fixing the broken bargain between governments and citizens.

The ECB as lender of last resort?
Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dirk Schoenmaker (VoxEU) Oct 22, 2014
As part of the move to a banking union, the largest banks in the Eurozone will soon be supervised by the ECB. This column argues that supervision and the lender of last resort function should be seen as a joint product. After the introduction of the euro, the national central banks continued to act as lenders of last resort because bank supervision remained at the national level. Now that supervision is moving to the ECB, so should the lender of last resort function for the larger, cross-border, banks.

Grappling With Graft Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Alexander Lebedev and Vladislav Inozemtsev (FA) Oct 22, 2014
How to combat the growing corruption epidemic.

The Oil Price Swoon Won’t Stop the Shale Boom Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mark P. Mills (WSJ) Oct 23, 2014
Still profitable at lower prices, fracking is ripe for technology gains that would help it weather further declines.

Commodities: A partial pump primer Financial Times Subscription Required
Chris Giles (FT) Oct 23, 2014
What does the fall in prices mean for a fragile global economy?

Jingle that sounds the road to recovery Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 23, 2014
It sometimes pays to wipe the debt slate clean rather than sweep problems under the carpet.

Blame Germany for the right reasons Financial Times Subscription Required
Otmar Issing (FT) Oct 23, 2014
The case for running a deficit to stimulate the economy is flimsy.

Eurozone crisis fears re-emerge Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Oct 23, 2014
Markets unsure if ECB bank stress test results will be positive.

EU, Singapore Finalise Investment Negotiations
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 35 Oct 23, 2014
Singapore and the EU announced last week that they had completed the final section of their free trade deal, specifically the investment talks that had been left outstanding when the rest of the pact was completed a year ago.

Seychelles’ WTO Accession Terms Finalised
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 35 Oct 23, 2014
After nearly two decades of negotiations, Seychelles is set to become the WTO's 161st member, with the Working Party tasked with the negotiations signing off on the island nation's accession terms on 17 October.

New Stage of Consultations Begins as WTO Deadlock Persists
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 35 Oct 23, 2014
WTO members are still far from a solution on the implementation of the decisions reached at their ministerial conference last December in Bali, Indonesia, with Director-General Roberto Azevêdo warning last Thursday that the impasse could be "the most serious situation that this organisation has ever faced."

New EU Commission Confirmed as Climate, Energy Meeting Kicks Off
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 35 Oct 23, 2014
The European Parliament has signed off on the proposed slate of officials who will serve in the new European Commission, paving the way for the group to take office in November. The news comes at a particularly busy time for the EU, with the bloc's leaders also aiming to finalise a new climate and energy framework for 2030 this week.

Germany, America and the New Global Order
Stephan Szabo (Globalist) Oct 23, 2014
How two reluctant, yet pivotal powers adjust to a pluralistic and less Western world order.

The End of Free Banking
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 23, 2014
U.K. banks will disappear from the high street as the Internet takes over; and retail banking won't be free for much longer in a world of zero interest rates.

A New Macroeconomic Strategy
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Oct 23, 2014
Both neo-Keynesians and supply-siders have tried and failed to overcome the high-income economies’ persistently weak performance in recent years. It is time for a new approach, one based on sustainable, investment-led growth.

The Rebirth of Egypt
Merit Al-Sayed, Mark Esposito, and Terence Tse (Project Syndicate) Oct 23, 2014
If macroeconomic indicators are to be believed, Egypt’s economic growth has ground almost to a halt over the past three years. Worse, however, the past three decades attest to the failure of conventional macroeconomics to guide policymakers in managing development.

The WTO’s Reform Crisis
Emily Jones (Project Syndicate) Oct 23, 2014
The World Trade Organization’s director-general, Roberto Azevêdo, has called for an urgent shakeup of his institution, and one of the main reform proposals is to abandon consensus-based decision-making. That might boost efficiency, but it could jeopardize one of the WTO’s greatest assets: its legitimacy.

Europe’s Fiscal Wormhole
Guntram B. Wolff (Project Syndicate) Oct 23, 2014
The fulfillment of policy rules in the eurozone appears to be impossible without growth, but growth appears to be impossible without breaking the rules. With all of the rules pointing toward recession, how can Europe boost recovery?

The Land of Milk and Cotton Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
J. P. Singh (FA) Oct 23, 2014
How U.S. protectionism distorts global trade.

'Whatever it takes' breaks down
John H. Makin (AEI) Oct 23, 2014
High hopes for global economic growth in 2014 have been dashed by still-declining growth and inflation, and outright global deflation is becoming more likely. The policy measures enacted thus far to reinvigorate the economy are not working, and policymakers have expressed no clear idea about what to do next. Central banks and governments must be more open about alternative approaches to managing the threat of stagnation and low growth and should prepare for a period of sharp market correction that may make these new policies more necessary.

Realising China’s sustainable growth rate Financial Times Subscription Required
Yukon Huang (FT) Oct 24, 2014
Beijing’s reforms have the potential to increase government expenditures and boost consumption.

China Will Keep Growing. Just Ask the Soviets. New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Oct 24, 2014
Can China continue its torrid pace of economic growth for decades to come? The long arc of history suggests not, according to a paper by Harvard’s Lant Pritchett and Lawrence Summers.

The Return of Volatility Is Mainly About Monetary Policy Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Niall Ferguson (WSJ) Oct 24, 2014
This month’s wild market swings show there is no smooth exit from QE3.

American-Made Financial Repression
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Oct 24, 2014
The late economist Ronald McKinnon argued that China and the US, by working together, could alleviate financial repression and enhance global monetary stability. Unfortunately, this advice is not popular among US economists and policymakers, who prefer the short-term political advantages afforded to them by free-market rhetoric.

Here's What the Fed Will Do
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 24, 2014
The Fed will be forceful in trying to avoid mistakes and reduce risks of an accident in the markets.

Cheaper oil: Winners and losers Economist Subscription Required
Economist Oct 25, 2014
America and its friends benefit from falling oil prices; its most strident critics don’t.

The euro zone: The world’s biggest economic problem Economist Subscription Required
Economist Oct 25, 2014
Deflation in the euro zone is all too close and extremely dangerous.

Patronage will persist in Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Tony Barber (FT) Oct 26, 2014
The bailout is a reminder of how big powers have often exercised control.

China’s doomed ‘socialist rule of law’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Rebecca Liao (FT) Oct 26, 2014
The Communist party attempt to introduce legal redress is an impossible feat.

Germany must still be a force for freedom Financial Times Subscription Required
Robert Zoellick (FT) Oct 26, 2014
US and Berlin should launch a strategic dialogue about the changing world.

Close the door on an accidental migration Financial Times Subscription Required
David Goodhart (FT) Oct 26, 2014
If you can loosen the rules, you can also tighten them.

Beijing’s journey from luxury to thrift Financial Times Subscription Required
James Kynge (FT) Oct 26, 2014
China’s ballooning debt and slowing growth will be tough to manage.

EU must act now to avoid ‘lost decade’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Scott Minerd (FT) Oct 26, 2014
None of the tools currently on the table will get the job done.

When iPhones Ring, the Economy Listens New York Times Subscription Required
Jeff Sommer (NYT) Oct 26, 2014
Beyond serving as Apple’s biggest profit center, the iPhone is also a bedrock of consumer spending and the stock market.

Dreamboat Vampires and Zombie Capitalists New York Times Subscription Required
David Castillo and William Egginton (NYT) Oct 26, 2014
The undead may best express our anxieties about capitalism: legions of mindless, soulless consumers who sustain its endless production.

Brazil Sticks With Statism Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mary O’Grady (WSJ) Oct 26, 2014
Odds are that the country’s reputation for economic mediocrity is safe for another four years.

What drives micro and macro volatility?
Cosmin L. Ilut, Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider (VoxEU) Oct 26, 2014
Heightened economic uncertainty has attracted much recent attention. Policymakers repeatedly emphasise uncertainty as a key factor driving the last two recessions – in particular the depth and length of the Great Recession. This column proposes asymmetric hiring rules as a mechanism that generates endogenous and joint movements in macro and micro volatility of employment growth.

Advanced economies’ sovereign debt: 100 years of data
S. M. Ali Abbas, Laura Blattner, Mark De Broeck, Asmaa El-Ganainy & Malin Hu (VoxEU) Oct 26, 2014
There has been renewed interest in sovereign debt since the Global Crisis, but relatively little attention has been paid to its composition. Sovereign debt can differ in terms of the currency it is denominated in, its maturity, its marketability, and who holds it – and these characteristics matter for debt sustainability. This column presents evidence from a new dataset on the composition of sovereign debt over the past century in 13 advanced economies.

Stress tests will not cure the eurozone Financial Times Subscription Required
Gavyn Davies (FT) Oct 27, 2014
A dysfunctional banking system should no longer be fatal for growth.

Trade negotiators should own up to their ambition Financial Times Subscription Required
Pascal Lamy (FT) Oct 27, 2014
Consumers fear the transatlantic pact will cost them their safeguards.

Mexico: Caught in the crossfire Financial Times Subscription Required
Jude Webber (FT) Oct 27, 2014
Security woes are threatening to ruin President Enrique Peña Nieto’s record of success.

Avoiding the Global Slowdown Blues Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Michael J. Boskin (WSJ) Oct 27, 2014
Despite jitters about where the U.S. is headed, there are specific steps we can take to ensure even stronger growth.

Smarter, greener, healthier and more productive: The new old
Tobias Vogt and Fanny Kluge (OECD Insights) Oct 27, 2014
Ageing populations are a threat to the sustainability of modern societies.

Europe's Banking Union Starts on an Encouraging Note
Nicolas Véron (PIIE) Oct 27, 2014
Sunday, October 26 was D-Day for Europe's banks: At noon in Frankfurt, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the results of its "comprehensive assessment" of the euro area's 130 largest banks, including an Asset Quality Review (AQR) and stress tests. Simultaneously in London, the European Banking Authority (EBA) announced the results of these stress tests for a larger sample of banks, including the largest banks headquartered in the European Union but outside the euro area.

Europe's Rules? Forget About Them
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Oct 27, 2014
The rest of the world has it all wrong: The EU isn't obsessing about rules. Just look at the leaders of France and the UK.

A New World Emerges
Globalist Oct 27, 2014
The Globalist Quiz asks: Which major economy was recently overtaken by an emerging one? France? Japan? UK? Germany?

Europe's Banks Are Still a Threat
Bloomberg View Oct 27, 2014
Europe's latest bank stress tests are a big improvement over previous efforts, which were widely derided as too soft, but still not good enough.

What Europe's Stress Tests Will and Won't Do
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 27, 2014
The European Central Bank calls out weak banks and puts economic integration on a solid track. The next steps are up to politicians, writes Mohamed A. El-Erian.

It's Time to Give China Some Time
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 27, 2014
Investors need to stop obsessing over every zig and zag in China's growth rate as if it were a big company that needs to impress us.

Britain’s Last EU Straw?
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Oct 27, 2014
The EU's recalculation of member states' budget contributions has fueled anti-EU resentment, especially in the UK, at a time when euroskepticism is already riding high. Indeed, the arbitrary nature of EU budget setting is likely to aggravate existing tensions.

The Era of Disorder
Richard N. Haass (Project Syndicate) Oct 27, 2014
Historical eras are difficult to recognize before they end. We can recognize the post-Cold War period of American preeminence, increased prosperity, and widespread peace as a distinct era, because a new and more menacing epoch has begun.

The Years of Living Tactically
Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) Oct 27, 2014
The biggest risk to global security today lies in the failure of the West to formulate a comprehensive strategy to address global challenges and manage the transition to a new multipolar system. The reason for this failure is simple: the West has allowed short-term tactical concerns to impede the development of a long-term vision.

China's Third Era: The End of Reform, Growth, and Stability
Gordon G. Chang (WA) Oct 27, 2014
After Mao and Deng Xiaoping, the People’s Republic of China has now entered its third era, a period to be marked by economic decline, political turbulence, and external belligerence.

Free Money Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Hugo Dixon (FA) Oct 27, 2014
Europe's quiet financial revolution.

Exploding wealth inequality in the United States
Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman (VoxEU) Oct 27, 2014
Wealth inequality in the US has followed a U-shaped evolution over the last century – there was a substantial democratisation of wealth from the Great Depression to the late 1970s, followed by a sharp rise in wealth inequality. This column discusses new evidence on the concentration of wealth in the US. Growing wealth disparity is fuelled by increases in both income and saving rate inequalities between the haves and the have nots.

Europe’s banks too feeble to spur growth Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 28, 2014
One doubts whether the capital in eurozone institutions is enough to drive the economy forward.

Hungary’s illiberal democracy flourishes Financial Times Subscription Required
George Szirtes (FT) Oct 28, 2014
Two steps forward, one step back – it is a familiar dance of the Fidesz party.

BEA’s relationships prowess blocks offers Financial Times Subscription Required
Jennifer Hughes (FT) Oct 28, 2014
Bank of East Asia is a near-perfect example of tangled ties that drive so much business in Asia.

Why Germany needs to start spending Financial Times Subscription Required
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (FT) Oct 28, 2014
Huge excess of savings over investment will drag Europe into deflation spiral.

Rousseff’s Global Challenge: Do Better Than India
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Oct 28, 2014
With Modi, India got a new life politically. What about Brazil?

Dilma Redux: Or Move Closer to US?
Johanna Mendelson Forman (Globalist) Oct 28, 2014
Brazil, like the United States, is now polarized politically, with two irreconcilable halves.

Currencies Flag More Volatility Ahead
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 28, 2014
October has savaged returns in the investment community; volatility in the currency market suggests the whiplash may continue.

Turn On the Taps in India
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Oct 28, 2014
With inflation tamed and the economy in the doldrums, it's time for India's central bank to open up the taps.

ECB Buys the Wrong Kind of Bonds
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 28, 2014
As the euro region's economic backdrop worsens, the pressure on the European Central Bank to add government bonds to its shopping list is growing.

Optimizing the Eurozone
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Oct 28, 2014
The eurozone is facing a bleak economic outlook, with growth remaining stagnant and the threat of deflation looming large. Its prospects will not improve unless and until it becomes the “optimal currency area” that its creators believed it to be.

Last Chance for Japan?
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Oct 28, 2014
Notwithstanding all of the fanfare surrounding “Abenomics,” Japan’s economy remains moribund. But if Japan pays greater attention to likely shifts in the Chinese and US economies, it could be one the greatest beneficiaries of their coming rebalancing.

Mexico’s Powerful Energy Reforms
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Oct 28, 2014
Mexico's recent reform of its energy sector completes the agenda of economic integration that began when the North American Free Trade Agreement was approved in 1994. Now the country is poised to become Latin America’s economic star in the decade ahead.

Learning to Love China's New Superbank
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 28, 2014
The U.S. has good reason to be wary of China's new infrastructure superbank -- and just as good reason to try and join it.

Indonesia’s Jokowi can outdo Obama Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Oct 29, 2014
Widodo will need all the acumen that took him to the presidency to avoid the traps being set.

Largest economies must fix the eurozone Financial Times Subscription Required
Olli Rehn and Jean Arthuis (FT) Oct 29, 2014
Only peer pressure, opprobrium and fear will shake leaders up.

The fiendish bond market needs a rethink Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephen Foley (FT) Oct 29, 2014
Standardised products are likely to attract more demand.

‘Coffin corner’ threat to stability Financial Times Subscription Required
Satyajit Das (FT) Oct 29, 2014
Post-crisis regulation makes markets more vulnerable to shocks.

Russian oil: Between a rock and a hard place Financial Times Subscription Required
Jack Farchy (FT) Oct 29, 2014
It has the largest reserves of shale oil in the world but as sanctions bite, can Moscow exploit them?

Enough With European Austerity, Bring on the Stimulus Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) Oct 29, 2014
Germany isn’t such a success story. Its GDP growth is a paltry 2.2% over 2008-13. Time for Merkel to budge.

The QE Record Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Oct 29, 2014
The end of Fed bond buying is not the end of monetary easing.

Whither Europe's Banks after the Stress Test?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Oct 29, 2014
The new comprehensive assessement of the European banking sector—including the "stress tests" of banks—was released in late October and made headlines by highlighting progress toward solvency and health in the banking system. But the tests also underscored concerns that many banks will need more capital and a more profitable business model to survive in the future.

How to Give Japan a Second Wind
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 29, 2014
Pundits can debate how real Shinzo Abe's "third arrow" reforms are. But what Japan really needs is a fourth arrow.

Tunisia Needs an Economic Revolution
Bloomberg View Oct 29, 2014
Tunisia's political success may not last if the country doesn't quickly get to grips with reforming its economy.

Belindia Has Spoken
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Oct 29, 2014
Forty years ago, the Brazilian economist Edmar Bacha named his country Belindia: a combination of prosperous and modern Belgium and poor and backward India. Is the winner of last Sunday's presidential election, the incumbent Dilma Rousseff, really from "India"?

Europe: Building a Banking Union
Stratfor Oct 29, 2014
The recent stress tests by the European Central Bank offered few surprises and did not cause any significant political or financial reactions in the Continent. However, these tests were only the beginning of a complex process to build a banking union in the European Union. Unlike the stress tests, the next steps in this project could create more divisions in Europe because national parliaments will be involved at a time when Euroskepticism is on the rise. More important, the stress tests will not have a particular impact on Europe's main problem: tight credit conditions for households and businesses. Without a substantial improvement in credit conditions, there cannot be a substantial economic recovery, particularly in the eurozone periphery.

Making sense of ECB’s comprehensive assessment
Viral Acharya and Sascha Steffen (VoxEU) Oct 29, 2014
The ECB conducted a comprehensive assessment of banks and identified capital shortfalls for 25 banks, totalling €25 billion. In this column, the authors provide a number of benchmark stress tests to estimate capital shortfalls. The analyses suggest possible capital shortfalls between €80 billion and more than €700 billion depending on the model. They find a negative correlation between their benchmark estimates and the regulatory capital shortfall, and a positive one between the benchmarks and the regulatory estimates of losses. This suggests that regulatory stress test outcomes are potentially affected by the discretion of national regulators.

Global imbalances: Whither now?
Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Marco E Terrones & Juan Yépez (VoxEU) Oct 29, 2014
Global current-account imbalances narrowed substantially over the past eight years. As a result, the systemic risks associated with these imbalances have decreased. This column argues that despite this narrowing, the net creditor and debtor positions diverged further. Some large debtor economies remain exposed to changes in market confidence. Containing remaining imbalances requires a rebalance in global demand.

The party is ending for Latin America Financial Times Subscription Required
John Paul Rathbone (FT) Oct 30, 2014
The region is looking at a slowdown, but things could be worse.

Soaring costs in global internet race Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Waters (FT) Oct 30, 2014
Ramp-up in costs reflects intensified competition as well as upgrades to long-term ambitions.

Rescue measures for stagnant eurozone Financial Times Subscription Required
Willem Buiter (FT) Oct 30, 2014
Bank stress tests an unconvincing fudge and big problems remain.

Apologizing to Japan New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Oct 30, 2014
Western economists were scathing in their criticisms of Japanese policy, but the slump we fell into isn’t just similar to Japan’s. It’s worse.

Why Taxation Must Go Global
Wolfgang Schäuble (Project Syndicate) Oct 30, 2014
While business no longer knows any borders, taxation has remained stuck in the era of the nation-state. The resulting tensions between fiscal sovereignty and globalization can be resolved only through international standards and regulation.

Africa's Largest Free Trade Area Set to Launch in December
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 36 Oct 30, 2014
The planned Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) – a zone that would be the largest free trade area in Africa and span across the continent's three main regional economic communities (RECs) – is now set to launch in mid-December at the Tripartite Summit of Heads of State and Government in Cairo, Egypt.

EU Leaders Reach Deal on Proposed 2030 Climate, Energy Goals
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 36 Oct 30, 2014
EU heads of state and government reached a political agreement late last week on a new climate and energy policy framework for 2030.

US, Mexico Announce Draft Deal on Sugar Trade Probes
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 36 Oct 30, 2014
US and Mexican officials announced on Monday that they had reached draft deals that could – if finalised – resolve a contentious row between Washington and Mexico City over sugar trade.

TPP Ministers: Shape of Trade Deal "Crystallising" Following Sydney Meet
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 36 Oct 30, 2014
Ministers from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries concluded a three-day meeting in Sydney, Australia on Monday, citing "significant progress" in their negotiations on both market access and on trade and investment rules.

China Is Very, Very, Very, Very Big
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 30, 2014
Based on population, China's economy was destined to be bigger than the U.S.'s.

Rethinking Hunger
Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Project Syndicate) Oct 30, 2014
Though great strides have been made toward the Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of undernourished people in developing countries, the problem remains pervasive. The challenge is not just to provide more food, but to ensure that people have access to the nutrients they need to live healthy, productive lives.

Brazil Stays Populist
Juan de Onis (wA) Oct 30, 2014
President Rousseff of Brazil has won four more years in office, which means (at least) four more years of populist economics that threaten one of the world’s largest emerging markets.

The U.S. Should Not Fear Competing With China
Amitai Etzioni (Diplomat) Oct 30, 2014
With the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the U.S. should not be afraid of a little healthy competition.

What Low Oil Prices Mean for the Global Economy
Luay Al-Khatteeb (Brookings) Oct 30, 2014
Many economic commentators are failing to see the benefits of lower oil prices for businesses, consumers, oil-producing nations, and the global economic recovery.

Reflections on the new 'Secular Stagnation hypothesis'
Lawrence Summers (VoxEU) Oct 30, 2014
The notion that Europe and other advanced economies are suffering secular stagnation is gaining traction. This column by Larry Summers – first published in the Vox eBook “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures” – explains the idea. It argues that a decline in the full-employment real interest rate coupled with low inflation could indefinitely prevent the attainment of full employment.

Regulating capital flows at both ends
Atish R Ghosh, Mahvash Saeed Qureshi and Naotaka Sugawara (VoxEU) Oct 30, 2014
Capital flows to emerging markets have been very volatile since the global financial crisis. This has kindled debates on whether – and how – to better manage cross-border capital flows. In this column, the authors examine the role of capital account restrictions in both source and recipient countries in taming destabilising capital flows. The results indicate that capital account restrictions at either end can significantly lower the volume of cross-border flows.

What the Bank of Japan’s Surprise Move Means for the Global Economy New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Oct 31, 2014
It offers a reminder, or perhaps a warning, of just how hard it will be to get the global economy out of its deflationary funk.

Bank of Japan's Money Can't Match China's Engine
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 31, 2014
Friday's stimulus moves by the Bank of Japan are another sugar high with little hope of producing sustainable growth in the long run.

Europe's Deadly Fiscal Paralysis
Bloomberg View Oct 31, 2014
Instead of grappling with the threat of low growth in the euro area, Europe's leaders are endlessly engaged with trivialities.

Hedge Fund Thinks Fighting Argentina Over Bonds Looks Fun
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Oct 31, 2014
Oh sure let's just accelerate our Argentine bonds, what could possibly go wrong except everything that's happened over the last decade.

Growth in the New Climate Economy
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Oct 31, 2014
Action to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions and mitigate climate change has long been viewed as fundamentally opposed to economic growth. But a recently released report concludes that efforts to combat climate change could boost growth considerably – and soon.

Testing the Eurozone’s Safety Net
Ashoka Mody (Project Syndicate) Oct 31, 2014
On October 14, the European Court of Justice convened to begin assessing the German Constitutional Court’s ruling that the European Central Bank's “outright monetary transactions” scheme is illegal. This is a dangerous time for OMT – the eurozone’s most potent crisis-management tool – to be called into question.

The Single-Engine Global Economy
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Oct 31, 2014
The global economy is like a jetliner that needs all of its engines operational to take off and steer clear of clouds and storms. Unfortunately, only one of its four engines is functioning properly, the pilots must navigate menacing storm clouds, and fights are breaking out among the passengers.

Governing a World Out of Order
Anne-Marie Slaughter (Project Syndicate) Oct 31, 2014
In his new book, Henry Kissinger asks whether the world can develop an international order that will keep the peace and allow countries to play by agreed rules. Unfortunately, that is the wrong question.

The Slow March to Gender Parity
Laura Tyson and Saadia Zahidi (Project Syndicate) Oct 31, 2014
Economic policymakers around the world are looking for ways to boost growth, with infrastructure investment topping most lists. But another, often-overlooked remedy is to increase the economic participation and advancement of women.

Getting Investment in Europe Right
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Oct 31, 2014
The European Commission’s new president, Jean-Claude Juncker, has put public investment back on the agenda with his idea of a three-year €300 billion capital spending plan. But, behind the superficial consensus that more investment would help to strengthen a worryingly feeble European economy, many questions remain unanswered.

The Future of Cities Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
John Chambers and Wim Elfrink (FA) Oct 31, 2014
The Internet of everything will change how we live.

An Economic Model for Asia New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Nov 1, 2014 Japan Rolls The Dice: A Report From Tokyo
Kenneth Courtis (Globalist) Nov 1, 2014
On the global consequences of a large economy refusing to reform itself.

Home prices since 1870
Katharina Knoll, Moritz Schularick and Thomas Steger (VoxEU) Nov 1, 2014
House price fluctuations take centre stage in recent macroeconomic debates, but little is known about their long-run evolution. This column presents new house price indices for 14 advanced economies since 1870. Real house prices display a pronounced hockey-stick pattern over the past 140 years. They stayed constant from the 19th to the mid-20th century, but rose strongly in the second half of the 20th century. Sharply increasing land prices, not construction costs, were the key driver of this trend.

China’s Imperial President Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Elizabeth C. Economy (FA) Nov 1, 2014
Chinese President Xi Jinping has articulated a simple but powerful vision: the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. It is a patriotic call to arms, drawing inspiration from the glories of China’s imperial past and the ideals of its socialist present to promote political unity at home and influence abroad. After just two years in office, Xi has advanced himself as a transformative leader, adopting an agenda that proposes to reform, if not revolutionize, political and economic relations not only within China but also with the rest of the world.

Misrule of the Few Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Pavlos Eleftheriadis (FA) Nov 1, 2014
How the oligarchs ruined Greece.

The Unraveling Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Richard N. Haass (FA) Nov 1, 2014
How to respond to a disordered World.

The Strategic Logic of Trade Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Michael B. Froman (FA) Nov 1, 2014
New rules of the road for the global market.

Central bankers are caught in their own trap Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Sandbu (FT) Nov 2, 2014
Their power to change expectations relies on their power to make them real.

Give debt the credit it deserves Financial Times Subscription Required
Nigel Dodd (FT) Nov 2, 2014
Funds should be available to those who need them most.

How to read the Dow Jones ups and downs Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Nov 2, 2014
Three possible explanations have differing economic and market implications.

South Korea: Sparks fly over the chaebol Financial Times Subscription Required
Simon Mundy (FT) Nov 2, 2014
Investors have trained their focus on the unchallenged family control and complex structures of the country’s largest companies.

The Ultimate Global Antipoverty Program Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Douglas A. Irwin (WSJ) Nov 2, 2014
Extreme poverty fell to 15% in 2011, from 36% in 1990. Credit goes to the spread of capitalism.

The Run on the Ruble Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Nov 2, 2014
Sanctions and a strong dollar create currency woes for Putin.

U.S. Sugar Policy: Sweet for a Few, Sour for Most
Burleigh Leonard (WSJ) Nov 3, 2014
New restrictions on Mexican sugar imports undermine the government’s negotiating position in free trade talks.

Europe’s chronic ailment
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Nov 2, 2014
The continent’s stagnation could give way to something worse.

What's Wealth If You Can't Count It?
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Nov 2, 2014
Nations need to do a better job of measuring their wealth.

Europe's Crazy Finance Tax
Bloomberg View Nov 2, 2014
Wrangling among the 11 euro-region nations planning to tax financial transactions is further evidence, if any were needed, that the levy is a bad idea that should be abandoned.

The economics of Asian geo-political stability
Paul Hubbard (East Asia Forum) Nov 2, 2014
What can economics tell you about the geo-political challenges in Asia?

Government debt and the term premium: New results from old data
Jagjit Chadha (VoxEU) Nov 2, 2014
The impact of the stock and maturity of government debt on longer-term bond yields matters for monetary policy. This column assesses the magnitude and relative importance of overall bond supply and maturity effects on longer-term US Treasury interest rates using data from 1976 to 2008. Both factors have a significant impact on both forwards and term premia, but maturity of public debt appears to matter more. The results have implications for exit from unconventional policies, and also for the links between monetary and fiscal policy and debt management.

Cracks in the Brics start to show Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Nov 3, 2014
A shared feeling that the west has run things for too long masks deep divergences in world.

India needs a trade deal with itself Financial Times Subscription Required
Victor Mallet (FT) Nov 3, 2014
Moving freight around is a slow process thanks to bureaucratic jams.

Rebuilding confidence in Europe’s banks Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Arnold (FT) Nov 3, 2014
The ECB is likely to repeat the stress tests every year and it will learn from its early mistakes.

Norway: Braced for a new wave of investment Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Milne (FT) Nov 3, 2014
Politicians are discussing big changes to Oslo’s $860bn sovereign wealth fund that would see it pull out of fossil fuels.

South Korea’s Confused Growth Plan Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Nov 3, 2014
How President Park Geun-hye and Finance Minister Choi Kyung-hwan can save their country from the Japan trap.

Bringing Commodities Regulation to Bitcoin Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mark Wetjen (WSJ) Nov 3, 2014
There are several trading platforms planning to list derivatives contracts for the virtual currency.

Will a Republican Senate Be Good for Trade?
Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) Nov 3, 2014
If voters give the GOP control of the Senate on November 4, as many polls suggest, the prospects of approving Trade Promotion Authority (TPA, or fast track), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) are likely to improve. There are four reasons for this assessment.

The End of the Fed Stimulus Program: A Reality Check
Krista Schwarz (K@W) Nov 3, 2014
While economic recovery will be slow and steady, Fed chair Janet Yellen must keep conditions accommodative to maintain low long-term interest rates.

Bad Energy. Good Energy. Choose Your Side.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Nov 3, 2014
Fossil fuel made the modern world possible, but future progress will depend on developing alternative sources of energy.

Good and Bad of the Strong Stock Recovery
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Nov 3, 2014
Investor exuberance shouldn't distract attention from the need for improved fundamentals to justify the existing prices.

The Draghi Put on Trial
Gita Gopinath (Project Syndicate) Nov 3, 2014
The European Court of Justice will rule soon on the legality of the European Central Bank's "outright monetary transactions" scheme to finance crisis-stricken eurozone countries. But, instead of asking whether the ECB’s mandate allows it to act as lender of last resort, EU leaders should be making the case for why it should.

Europe’s Energy Essentials
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Nov 3, 2014
As global developments challenge European values, welfare, and security, EU leaders must focus on building a new energy system that ensures a secure supply, competitive pricing, and ecological sustainability. The good news is that a framework to facilitate this initiative is already emerging.

Latin America’s Climate Vanguard
Ricardo Lagos (Project Syndicate) Nov 3, 2014
Latin American countries can take the lead on framing a new climate change agreement at the UN's upcoming climate conference in Lima. Indeed, by enacting laws that reduce greenhouse-gas emissions while encouraging economic growth, the region can set an example for the rest of the world.

China’s Repressed SMEs
Yu Yongding (Project Syndicate) Nov 3, 2014
Financial repression – government policies that lead to low or negative real interest rates, with the implicit goal of generating cheap financing for public spending – has long been a key feature of Chinese economic policy. But, with funding costs for businesses trending up, this needs to change.

Celebrity Central Bankers
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Nov 3, 2014
Major central banks’ growth and inflation forecasts in the years since the financial crisis have consistently overestimated both growth and inflation – and by wide margins. So why do the comments of major economies’ central bankers command outsize attention?

Monetary policy and long-term trends
Charles A.E. Goodhart and Philipp Erfurth (VoxEU) Nov 3, 2014
There has been a long-term downward trend in labour’s share of national income, depressing both demand and inflation, and thus prompting ever more expansionary monetary policies. This column argues that, while understandable in a short-term business cycle context, this has exacerbated longer-term trends, increasing inequality and financial distortions. Perhaps the most fundamental problem has been over-reliance on debt finance. The authors propose policies to raise the share of equity finance in housing markets; such reforms could be extended to other sectors of the economy.

Fixing Europe in the short and long run: A proposal
Luigi Guiso and Massimo Morelli (VoxEU) Nov 3, 2014
Eurozone countries need to stop the stagnation and improve their management of future crises. In this column, the authors argue that both issues should be addressed simultaneously. To achieve this goal, they propose the creation of a European Federal Institute. This Institute would coordinate short-run, antirecession measures, and implement steps towards a federal budget that would fix the European institutional design in the long-run.

Lower Oil Prices Carry Geopolitical Consequences
Stratfor Nov 3, 2014
Since mid-June, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen by nearly 25 percent -- going from a high of $115 to about $87 a barrel -- and structural factors are causing concern among global oil producers that oil prices will remain near current levels through at least the end of 2015. This concern has caused several investment banks to slash their oil price outlooks for the immediate future. Stratfor believes that oil supplies will stay high as energy production in North America increases and OPEC countries remain hesitant or unable to cut production significantly. Moreover, in the short term, the Chinese economic slowdown and stagnant European economy will limit the potential for growth in oil demand. These factors could make it harder for global oil prices to rebound to their previous levels.

Warnings from Japan for the eurozone Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Nov 4, 2014
Europe has been unwilling to address the structural excess savings of creditor countries.

Second-richest man was poorer than us Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) Nov 4, 2014
I would rather have antibiotics than gold plate, and I suspect Rothschild would have felt the same.

Economic transformation is key to a free Myanmar Financial Times Subscription Required
Thant Myint-U (FT) Nov 4, 2014
Foreign governments can help by promoting trade and investment.

Philippines tycoons top outbound M&A action Financial Times Subscription Required
Jeremy Grant (FT) Nov 4, 2014
Trend is helping to focus investor attention on 10-member Asean bloc.

US investors read between the lines Financial Times Subscription Required
James Mackintosh (FT) Nov 4, 2014
Bond and equity markets are telling different stories.

Barroso: ‘Not everything I did was right’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Peter Spiegel (FT) Nov 4, 2014
On his final day, the former European Commission president explains his actions during two terms.

Japan Creates World's Biggest Bond Bubble
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Nov 4, 2014
What happens when a central bank buys up an entire bond market? We're about to find out as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda corners Japan's.

Reality Might Topple a Beloved Economic Theory
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Nov 4, 2014
The easy money of quantitative easing is often seen as a way to prevent deflation and recession, but it might cause both.

The Asian Paradox
Yoon Young-kwan (Project Syndicate) Nov 4, 2014
Uncertainty about whether Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will even speak to each other at this month's APEC summit highlights the grim reality of Asian relations today. The “Asian century” is being thwarted by a paradox: economic interdependence has done nothing to alleviate strategic mistrust.

Poland’s New Golden Age
Günter Verheugen (Project Syndicate) Nov 4, 2014
Though the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989 did not bring about the perpetual peace and prosperity that some imagined, it did set in motion some true success stories. One of the most impressive is Poland’s rise as a political and economic heavyweight in Europe.

The Urban Village
Carlo Ratti and Matthew Claudel (Project Syndicate) Nov 4, 2014
Metropolises like London and New York, with their multicultural populations, multinational corporations, and multitude of talented individuals, are appealing largely because of their complex, bustling nature. But is urban life actually governed by a few fundamental laws?

Traveling Through Multiple Europes
Adriano Bosoni (Stratfor) Nov 4, 2014
Europe is overcrowded with people and with nations. Six decades ago, the need to suppress the dangerous forces of nationalism led to the unprecedented political, economic and social experiment now known as the European Union. The hundreds of thousands of EU citizens working across the Continent and the lack of border controls between member states show that the experiment has been successful in many ways. However, rising nationalism, pervasively high unemployment and a growing sense of frustration with governing elites also highlight the serious limitations of the European project. Over the past 12 months, I have traveled extensively throughout Europe, observing firsthand how the global economic crisis is reawakening dormant trends along the Continent's traditional fault lines.

Demography and economics: Look past the past
Philipp Erfurth and Charles A.E. Goodhart (VoxEU) Nov 4, 2014
Most of the world is now at the point where the support ratio is becoming adverse, and the growth of the global workforce is slowing. This column argues that these changes will have profound and negative effects on economic growth. This implies that negative real interest rates are not the new normal, but rather an extreme artefact of a series of trends, several of which are coming to an end. By 2025, real interest rates should have returned to their historical equilibrium value of around 2.5–3%.

Vindicating Volatility Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Robert McNally and Michael Levi (FA) Nov 4, 2014
Why fluctuating oil prices are here to stay.

Why innovation matters to investors Financial Times Subscription Required
Ewen Cameron Watt (FT) Nov 5, 2014
Technological change can erode competitive advantage.

Why Is Ukraine So Poor?
Anders Åslund (PIIE) Nov 5, 2014
The first question Russians usually pose when discussing Ukraine's economy is: Why are they so poor? The question is to the point. Ukraine's economy has persistently underperformed quite spectacularly because of pervasive corruption.

My Two Big Worries About the World Bank
Nancy Birdsall (Globalist) Nov 5, 2014
Is the World Bank becoming irrelevant?

Backlash Against the Big Boys in Korea
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Nov 5, 2014
Investors have rebelled against the clubby ways of at least one major South Korean chaebol. President Park Geun Hye should seize the moment to push more radical reforms.

Europe's Shrinking Conglomerates
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Nov 5, 2014
Europe's biggest conglomerates are discarding units that don't make enough money or don't fit with with the business strategy. it might just be the start of a second industrial revolution.

A Crazy Idea About Italy
Jim O'Neill (Bloomberg View) Nov 5, 2014
Maybe it's time to discipline Germany for letting Europe's lack of inflation get out of control.

ECB May Be Forced to Do More With Less 
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Nov 5, 2014
Unfortunately, the ECB's instruments, on their own, are ill equipped to deal with what holds back growth -- be it poor competitiveness, inadequate aggregate demand or residual pockets of excessive indebtedness.

Will the New Congress Bring Economic Renewal? 
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Nov 5, 2014
The markets hope a Democratic president and Republican Congress can replicate the successes of the Clinton era. They may be too optimistic.

ECB Needs Japanese Lessons
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Nov 5, 2014
As Europe slides closer to deflation, the ECB should heed both the historical experience and the current efforts of the Bank of Japan about how and how not to resuscitate growth.

Quantitative Easing for the People
John Muellbauer (Project Syndicate) Nov 5, 2014
It is now a near certainty that, by the end of this year, falling energy and commodity prices will push annual inflation in the eurozone below zero – well under the European Central Bank’s target of near 2%. Rather than continue to depend on misguided conventional thinking, the ECB must pursue the right form of quantitative easing.

A Growth Pact for America
Glenn Hubbard (Project Syndicate) Nov 5, 2014
America, once again, will have a divided government, with the Democrats holding the White House, and the Republicans controlling both houses of Congress. But that does not necessarily mean that the final two years of Barack Obama’s presidency need to be defined by stalemate and mutual recrimination.

The impact of the Fed’s exit on India
Kaushik Basu, Barry Eichengreen and Poonam Gupta (VoxEU) Nov 5, 2014
India was among the hardest hit by the Fed’s ‘taper talks’. This column argues that this impact was large for two reasons. First, India received huge capital flows before 2013. This had made it a convenient target for investors seeking to rebalance away from emerging markets. Second, macroeconomic conditions had worsened, which rendered the economy vulnerable. The measures adopted in response were ineffective in stabilising the financial markets. Implementing a medium-term framework that limits vulnerabilities and restricts spillovers could be more successful.

Immigration and public finances
VoxEU Nov 5, 2014
Data on social attitudes show that the perceived burden of immigration on a nation’s public finances is one of the strongest economic concerns associated with hostility to immigration. Yet recent official reports suggest an important positive role for immigration in the long-run health of public finances. This column argues that there can be no general conclusions applicable in all circumstances about whether immigration is favourable or unfavourable for public finances. But evidence is emerging on particular cases through studies of immigrant composition and use of services, and the effects of immigration on native outcomes.

Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets: Evidence from capital flows
Dennis Reinhardt, Cameron McLoughlin and Ludovic Gauvin (VoxEU) Nov 5, 2014
In the aftermath of the Global Crisis, policymakers and academics alike discussed how uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic policymaking has impacted domestic investment. At the same time, concerns regarding the spillover impact of monetary policy in advanced economies on emerging market economies featured strongly in the international policy debate. This column draws the two debates together, and examines how policy uncertainty in advanced economies has spilled over to emerging markets via portfolio capital flows. It finds remarkable differences in the spillover effects of EU vs. US policy uncertainty.

Trichet had to get tough with Dublin Financial Times Subscription Required
Peter Doyle (FT) Nov 6, 2014
If France or Italy defies an ECB ultimatum, the eurozone could again be in crisis.

Peña Nieto tries to rewrite Mexico’s script Financial Times Subscription Required
Jude Webber (FT) Nov 6, 2014
The president is seeking to change the nation’s course on law and order.

Fed has built a thorny central bank divide Financial Times Subscription Required
Ousmène Mandeng (FT) Nov 6, 2014
Lack of access to Fed’s dollar liquidity will result in further volatility.

Gold price bears take charge of bullion Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sanderson (FT) Nov 6, 2014
Chinese buyers, stung by last year’s price moves, remain sidelined.

Junk bond rebound follows end of QE Financial Times Subscription Required
Vivianne Rodrigues (FT) Nov 6, 2014
As the Federal Reserve wraps up its latest round of quantitative easing, one unlikely asset class is benefiting from the end of easy money: junk bonds.

China and Japan: Eyes on a compromise Financial Times Subscription Required
Demetri Sevastopulo and Jamil Anderlini (FT) Nov 6, 2014
Relations are at a 40 year low but, with the leaders set to meet, can they do anything to ease tensions?

Trade Deals in Focus as Asia-Pacific Economic Leaders' Week Begins
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 37 Nov 6, 2014
Leaders from 21 Asia-Pacific countries are set to arrive in Beijing, China in the coming days for a highly-anticipated summit, with trade expected to be one of the top items on the agenda. Issues to watch, observers say, include a potential breakthrough in the WTO's stalled talks on expanding an agreement in technology trade, and a push by China to advance discussions on a future regional trade zone.

WTO Members Mull Alternative Scenarios as Impasse Continues
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 37 Nov 6, 2014
Efforts to resolve the WTO impasse continued in Geneva this week, with multiple sources saying that a formal solution does not appear to have been finalised yet among the membership, despite continued discussions.

UN Climate Report Calls for Zero Emissions by End of Century
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 37 Nov 6, 2014
Delegates from 195 nations on Sunday signed off on a UN climate report calling for a 40 to 70 percent drop in emissions in the next forty years relative to 2010 levels, with a move to zero by the end of the century, in order to avoid the far-ranging and disastrous consequences of climate change.

Diplomatic Conference to Revise Lisbon Agreement Set as WIPO Members Spar over Participation
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 37 Nov 6, 2014
Parties to the Lisbon Agreement protecting "appellations of origin" are now set to hold a diplomatic conference next May at the World Intellectual Property Organization's (WIPO) headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland. Last week’s decision confirming such a conference, however, fuelled heated debate over whether countries not party to the treaty should be allowed to vote on revisions adding geographical indications to its scope, given the impact these changes could have on their own commercial and trading interests.

LDCs Encourage WTO Members to Design More Effective Preferential Rules of Origin
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 37 Nov 6, 2014
The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) Group at the WTO presented a report to the multilateral organisation's Committee on Rules of Origin (CRO) on 30 October, calling for a more effective design of preferential rules of origin. The discussions are part of the work mandated by trade ministers at their last WTO ministerial conference in Bali, Indonesia in this area.

The 2014 EU-Wide Bank Stress Test Lacks Credibility
Morris Goldstein (PIIE) Nov 6, 2014
On October 26, 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) released the results of the latest EU-wide stress test and the accompanying asset quality review (AQR). The 2014 stress test encompasses four key findings: (1) the aggregate capital shortfall for the 123 banks participating in the test is €24.6 billion; (2) only 24 of the 123 banks are undercapitalized, as indicated by their inability to meet transitional common equity tier 1 capital ratios of 5.5 and 8.0 percent in the baseline and adverse scenarios, respectively; (3) the undercapitalized banks are all in Italy, Greece, and Cyprus; and (4) the largest banks in France and Germany have ample capital.

The Inclusion Imperative
Mahmoud Mohieldin and Maria Beatriz Orlando (Project Syndicate) Nov 6, 2014
In developing the post-2015 development agenda, world leaders must recognize that the progress that has been made in recent years has been uneven. In fact, the same groups – such as indigenous peoples, religious or sexual minorities, and the disabled – have consistently been excluded from progress and prosperity.

China’s Questionable Economic Power
Joseph S. Nye (Project Syndicate) Nov 6, 2014
The World Bank recently announced that China’s economy will surpass that of the US this year, measured according to purchasing power parity. But this is far from a holistic depiction of China's global economic standing.

Measuring the competitiveness of China’s processed exports
Willem Thorbecke (VoxEU) Nov 6, 2014
Foreign reserve accumulation by China and other east Asian countries has been a controversial way to boost exports. This column argues that it is not even in their own national interests. The policy has been ineffective in maintaining China’s ordinary trade surplus, while its processing trade surplus continues to rely on devaluation in countries further up the supply chain. Foreign reserve divestment would increase purchasing power in east Asian countries, free up government revenue, and be innocuous to export competition if properly coordinated.

The return of the Cold Trade War?
Peter A.G. van Bergeijk (VoxEU) Nov 6, 2014
A quarter of a century ago, the Iron Curtain and Berlin Wall were demolished. This was one of the most visible consequences of the fall of communism. In the decades before 1989 political conflict had shaped the world trade pattern. Against the background of political tensions in the Ukraine, this column investigates the vulnerability of the world trade system.

Why Oil Prices May Shoot Back Up
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Nov 7, 2014
Price forecasts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have never been particularly reliable, so it's easy do dismiss the latest one -- a

Waiting for the European Central Bank New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Nov 7, 2014
The steps the E.C.B. seems to have in mind will not sufficiently bolster the eurozone economy.

World Bank’s grievous omission
Philip Alston (WP) Nov 7, 2014
Human rights aren’t part of the bank’s vocabulary — but they should be.

It's a Bad Time to Be a Saver in Europe 
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Nov 7, 2014
It's a strange world when economic frugality is punished while fiscal profligacy gets rewarded, yet negative interest rates mean that's what's happening in the euro zone.

The New Frontiers of Loyalty
Mark Malloch Brown (Project Syndicate) Nov 7, 2014
This is a tricky time to be a state, and an even trickier time to be a citizen. The nation-state, the classic provider of security and basic wellbeing in exchange for citizens’ loyalty, is under threat – both at home and as the fundamental unit of international affairs.

In Praise of Global Imbalances
Sanjeev Sanyal (Project Syndicate) Nov 7, 2014
As China shifts from being the world’s workshop to its main financier, only the US has the capacity to absorb China's savings. The resulting imbalances should be welcomed as a spur to global growth – just as they have been in the past.

The Economics of Inclusion
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Nov 7, 2014
Any strategy for inclusive economic growth must empower people by including them in the networks that make them productive. Inclusiveness thus should be seen not as a restriction on growth to make it morally palatable, but as a strategy to enhance it.

Eastern Europe’s 25 Years of Transition
David Lipton (Project Syndicate) Nov 7, 2014
A quarter-century ago, Central and Eastern Europe embarked upon a historic transformation, from authoritarian communism to democratic capitalism. With memories of the old system already beginning to fade, it seems fitting to look back at the region’s achievements, review the lessons learned, and examine the challenges ahead.

Dilma's Smoke, Modi's Mirrors Foreign Policy Subscription Required
Nicholas Spiro (FP) Nov 7, 2014
From India to Brazil to Indonesia, reform in emerging markets is going to be a lot harder than investors want to believe.

Systemic price mis-measurement: Rethinking PPP
Jessie Handbury and David E. Weinstein (VoxEU) Nov 7, 2014
It’s a common perception that big cities are expensive. This column argues that most of the variation in prices across cities can be attributed to flaws in the conventional indexes. One problem with the standard methodology is that it compares prices of similar but not identical goods. A second issue is that most price indexes do not adjust for the availability of goods across locations. Correcting for these two problems, the authors find that grocery prices are actually lower in large cities.

Green policies to promote Eurozone growth
Jean Pisani-Ferry (VoxEU) Nov 7, 2014
A triple-dip recession in the Eurozone is now a distinct possibility. This column argues that additional monetary stimulus is unlikely to be effective, that the scope for further fiscal stimulus is limited, and that some structural reforms may actually hurt growth in the short run by adding to disinflationary pressures in a liquidity trap. The author advocates using tax incentives and tighter regulations to encourage firms to replace environmentally inefficient capital.

A Strategy for Rich Countries: Absorb More Immigrants New York Times Subscription Required
Tyler Cowen (NYT) Nov 8, 2014
If developed economies are to keep thriving, they’ll need more people. Two paths to that goal are immigration reform and family-friendly working conditions.

Emerging markets: The dodgiest duo in the suspect six Economist Subscription Required
Economist Nov 8, 2014
As emerging economies hit hard times, Brazil and Russia look particularly weak.

APEC at the Apex
Kevin Rudd (Project Syndicate) Nov 8, 2014
The significance of the upcoming APEC Summit in Beijing consists not so much in what is on the agenda as in what transpires on the sidelines. Meetings between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama; as well as Xi’s meetings with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe loom especially large.

The zero lower bound has not been very severe
Eric T Swanson (VoxEU) Nov 8, 2014
In December 2008, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate to essentially zero and has kept it there since then. This column argues that, contrary to traditional macroeconomic thinking, monetary policy has not been severely constrained by the zero bound until mid-2011. The results imply that the Fed could have done more to ease monetary policy between 2009 and 2011. These findings could also help explain why the fiscal stimulus package adopted in 2009 did not bring the expected success.

The euro is in greater peril than ever Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Nov 9, 2014
The eurozone has no mechanism to defend itself against a drawn-out depression.

‘American Power after the Financial Crisis’, by Jonathan Kirshner Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Nov 9, 2014
The fire of the crisis was extinguished at great cost, but ‘the firetrap remained’.

Currency wars fail to spark global growth Financial Times Subscription Required
Komal Sri Kumar (FT) Nov 9, 2014
Policy makers have relied too much on QE rather than structural reform.

The Fed’s bond buying enigma
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Nov 9, 2014
Deciphering whether “quantitative easing” helped.

What’s the score on Japan’s Abenomics
Hugh Patrick (EAF) Nov 9, 2014
Abenomics has successfully restored Japanese confidence, but the initial exuberant optimism has waned. Yet, those who say it is a failure are judging prematurely.

Influencing household inflation expectations
Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Crucas and Ricardo Perez-Truglia (VoxEU) Nov 9, 2014
Although central banks have a natural desire to influence household inflation expectations, there is no consensus on how these expectations are formed or the best ways to influence them. This column presents evidence from a series of survey experiments conducted in a low-inflation context (the US) and a high-inflation context (Argentina). The authors find that dispersion in household expectations can be explained by the cost of acquiring and interpreting inflation statistics, and by the use of inaccurate memories about price changes of specific products. They also provide recommendations for central bank communication strategies.

The policy of money printing and rates Financial Times Subscription Required
Adair Turner (FT) Nov 10, 2014
No technical reasons exist for rejecting this, only the fear of breaking a taboo.

China’s economy and a surfeit of stimulus Financial Times Subscription Required
Joe Zhang (FT) Nov 10, 2014
The central bank’s efforts exacerbate overcapacity.

October’s market jitters are just a taste Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Nov 10, 2014
Investors face further unpredictability as liquidity dries up.

China: Hiding Your Strength and Biding Your Time
Kenneth Courtis (Globalist) Nov 10, 2014
APEC Summit reflections on China’s impressive policy and reform path.

On Alan Greenspan's claim that gold is a better currency than the dollar
John Aziz (Pieria) Nov 10, 2014
All currencies are fiat currencies.

Best Immigration Policy Is More Immigration
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Nov 10, 2014
My default attitude toward immigration -- more is better.

Who Benefits From a Floating Ruble?
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Nov 10, 2014
Allowing the ruble to float freely is the best tool the Russian Central Bank has to stop speculative attacks on the currency. But, as is often the case with Russia under President Vladimir Putin, it may also favor corruption.

Money Buys Happiness Until It Doesn't
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Nov 10, 2014
It looks as if you can buy happiness, after all. At least, in limited amounts, and up to a point.

How Close Is Russia to Financial Crisis?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Nov 10, 2014
As the central bank of Russia appears to be losing control of its currency market, the global financial media is warning about a possible financial crisis there.

Bondholders Vote on Catalan Independence
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Nov 10, 2014
Now that 81 percent of Catalonian voters have expressed their preference for independence from Spain, the Spanish government's refusal to negotiate with the separatist movement has become unsustainable -- and risks driving even more people into the independence movement.

Europe's Banking Addicts
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Nov 10, 2014
European companies are overly reliant on banks to meet their funding needs, hobbling efforts to resuscitate the economy as banks shrink their lending.

Asia's Biggest Economic Challenges
Bloomberg View Nov 10, 2014
When he travels to Asia this week, U.S. President Barack Obama will find himself in unfamiliar territory: not Asia, which he visited just last year, but amid leaders who enjoy popular mandates, negligible political opposition or both.

Europe’s Dog in the Nighttime
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Nov 10, 2014
As Sherlock Holmes understood, a dog that does not bark in the nighttime usually goes unnoticed. In Europe’s case, the EU’s fiscal rules are at issue, and the Commission – in principle the EU’s watchdog – should bark loudly when they are flouted.

Germany’s Secret Credit Addiction
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Nov 10, 2014
With Germany's exports and industrial production contracting, its unsustainable credit-fueled expansion is coming to an end. The problem is that orthodox economics and conventional policy have nothing to offer except more of the private-sector leverage that got us into trouble in the first place.

A Plutocrats Summit?
Wayne Swan (Project Syndicate) Nov 10, 2014
With just days to go until its summit in Brisbane, the G-20 is ignoring the main long-term threats to the global economy. For example, the Australian government’s refusal to discuss inclusive growth strongly suggests that the summit will offer no substantive policies to reduce inequality.

Ebola and Inequality
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Nov 10, 2014
The Ebola crisis reminds us, once again, of the downside of globalization. And, though governments may not do a perfect job in addressing such crises, one of the reasons that they have not done as well as we would hope is that we have underfunded the relevant agencies at the national and global level.

The Return of the Dollar
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Nov 10, 2014
The recent dollar rally, the result of genuine economic progress and divergent policy developments, could contribute to the “rebalancing” that has long eluded the global economy. But that outcome is far from guaranteed.

Does Slower Growth Imply Lower Interest Rates?
Sylvain Leduc and Glenn D. Rudebusch (FRBSF Economic Letter) Nov 10, 2014
Over the past two years, both monetary and fiscal policy projections have been based on the view that declines in the long-run potential growth rate of the economy will in turn push down interest rates. In contrast, examination of private-sector professional forecasts and historical data provides little evidence of such a linkage. This suggests a greater risk that future interest rates may be higher than expected.

Battle of the Asia-Pacific FTAs
Jayant Menon (VoxEU) Nov 10, 2014
With WTO trade talks on the brink of failure (again), global trade governance is being decided elsewhere. This column argues that China and the US are pushing competing visions for free trade in Asia-Pacific. The US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, could be challenged by a China-led ‘Beijing Road Map’ that may be announced at this week’s APEC summit. Neither vision is an end-game but merely one more stroke on an ugly picture of trade agreements characterised by an unsustainable amount of disorder and incoherence.

Don't Ask How to Feed the 9 Billion New York Times Subscription Required
Mark Bittman (NYT) Nov 11, 2014
The solution isn't to produce more food, it's to eliminate poverty.

The policy of money printing and rates Financial Times Subscription Required
Adair Turner (FT) Nov 11, 2014
No technical reasons exist for rejecting this, only the fear of breaking a taboo.

Eurozone stagnation is inevitable Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Nov 11, 2014
QE to have limited potency and there is little in monetary locker.

Gold miners priced for near-death Financial Times Subscription Required
James Mackintosh (FT) Nov 11, 2014
Prices have plunged so far that shares are worth the same amount of gold as they were in 2008.

Europe has irrational fears over trade Financial Times Subscription Required
Katinka Barysch (FT) Nov 11, 2014
For many, TTIP serves as a pressure valve for expressing other suspicions.

China anti-corruption push spurs outflows Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Nov 11, 2014
Companies are accelerating investments abroad as deals become vehicle for money leaving China.

China’s ‘Marshall Plan’ Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Nov 11, 2014
Xi Jinping bids to take leadership away from the U.S.

European Companies Aren't Selling Enough Stuff
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Nov 11, 2014
As Europe's governments debate whether increased austerity or a dash for growth would best resuscitate the economy, it's clear that euro-zone companies aren't achieving anything like the sales growth of their U.S. counterparts.

Ethics and Infrastructure
Yannos Papantoniou (Project Syndicate) Nov 11, 2014
Many high-profile economists now favor revising the eurozone’s fiscal rules to allow for public investment aimed at accelerating economic recovery, arguing that record-low interest rates would make increased capital spending by governments tantamount to the proverbial "free lunch." So why do German officials refuse to get on board?

Europe’s Ukrainian Road to Normality
Erik Berglöf (Project Syndicate) Nov 11, 2014
As Europe celebrates the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, dark clouds are again descending on the continent. Recalling what prompted the events of 1989, and focusing on the main source of regional tension today, may help Europe find a way out of its current malaise.

The Bonfire of the Subsidies
Kevin Watkins (Project Syndicate) Nov 11, 2014
The number of chances that the world will have to address climate change is dwindling. One of them comes with this week’s G-20 summit in Brisbane, Australia, where leaders of the world’s advanced and major emerging economies can signal serious intent by cutting the fossil-fuel subsidies that fuel global warming.

The Road from the Brisbane G-20 Summit
Various (Brookings) Nov 11, 2014
Regional perspectives on issues that will shape policy debates long after this weekend’s G-20 summit in Brisbane.

World War I: Why the Allies won
Stephen Broadberry (VoxEU) Nov 11, 2014
In the massive circumstances of total war, economic factors play the deciding role. Historians emphasise size in explaining the outcome of WWI, but this column argues that quality mattered as well as quantity. Developed countries mobilised resources in disproportion to their economic size – the level of development acted as a multiplier. With their large peasant sectors, the Central Powers could not maintain agricultural output as wartime mobilisation redirected resources from farming. The resulting urban famine undermined the supply chain behind the war effort.

What caused the Eurozone’s Crisis?
Philippe Martin and Thomas Philippon (VoxEU) Nov 11, 2014
Economists disagree over the origin of the Eurozone Crisis. This column uses a quantitative framework to sort through the various channels and policy impacts. It argues that fiscal and macroprudential policies are complements, not substitutes. Prudent fiscal policy is helpful but cannot by itself undo private leverage booms. Both prudent fiscal policies and macroprudential policies are required to stabilise the economy and make the Eurozone a viable monetary union.

Obama Aims to Lift the Global Economy, and Maybe Himself New York Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Weisman (NYT) Nov 12, 2014
Mr. Obama will arrive at an international economic meeting in Australia hoping to press European and Asian leaders to get their economies moving again — and perhaps buoy his own presidency.

Japan actions risk igniting currency war Financial Times Subscription Required
Diana Choyleva (FT) Nov 12, 2014
Devaluation is becoming a habit in an economy that has lost its edge.

Scandal that taints whole forex market Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Augar (FT) Nov 12, 2014
Compliance departments are being properly intrusive

A plan for fixing the next crisis Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gapper (FT) Nov 12, 2014
In a serious crunch, it would be every bank regulator for itself.

Italy’s Post-it premier hopes reforms stick Financial Times Subscription Required
James Politi (FT) Nov 12, 2014
A stalling economy could thwart Renzi’s efforts to tackle the decades-old problems that beset the country.

The Wolves of Forex Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Nov 12, 2014
Foul-mouthed traders aren’t the biggest manipulators of currency markets.

A new Berlin Wall
Charles Lane (WP) Nov 12, 2014
Germany’s rigidity threatens to destabilize the world economy.

A stock-market bubble?
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Nov 12, 2014
If there is one, don’t blame the Fed’s bond-buying program.

Banks Manipulated Foreign Exchange in Ways You Can't Teach
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Nov 12, 2014
The way you push an FX fixing up is, you buy a lot at the fixing, or sell a lot, or do neither. One of those should work. Maybe.

Cambodia's debt prompts warning
Vann Vichar (AT) Nov 12, 2014
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has secured a pledge from China of hundreds of millions of dollars in loans for development programs. An opposition party lawmaker, concerned about rising debt to China, says improved tax collection would be a better alternative.

A Breakthrough for Global Trade?
Bloomberg View Nov 12, 2014
The economic benefits of the China-U.S. trade deal are clear to both countries, and it may also help revive global trade talks.

Put Currency Cheats on Trial
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Nov 12, 2014
The currency-rigging scandal that saw five banks fined $3.3 billion today has also prompted the Bank of England to dismiss its chief trader in the market.

IMF Governance Reform: Unfinished Business for the 113th Congress
Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Nov 12, 2014
US senators and representatives return to Washington on November 12 to complete the urgent unfinished business of the 113th Congress. They have a lot unfinished, and very high on that list for both the administration and the Congress should be approval of the 2010 International Monetary Fund (IMF) governance reform package.

Ukraine’s Debt Dilemma
Barry Eichengreen and Domenico Lombardi (Project Syndicate) Nov 12, 2014
Ukraine’s short-term liquidity problems will test its ability to meet its debt obligations, which is both unfortunate and avoidable. Indeed, Ukraine’s struggles highlight the need for an agreed framework to resolve sovereign-debt problems and govern IMF lending.

China’s New World Order
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) Nov 12, 2014
After decades of participating in international economic institutions, China is beginning to use its clout to reshape global governance, beginning with the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. But, given deep mistrust between China, its regional neighbors, and the US, its success is far from guaranteed.

Banking crises and sovereign defaults in emerging markets
Irina Balteanu and Aitor Erce (VoxEU) Nov 12, 2014
The feedback loop between banking crises and sovereign debt crises has been at the heart of recent problems in the Eurozone. This column presents stylised facts on the mechanisms through which banking and sovereign crises combine and become ‘twin’ crises. The results point to systematic differences not only between ‘single’ and ‘twin’ crises, but also between different types of ‘twin’ episodes. The timing of ‘twin’ crises – which crisis comes first – is important for understanding their drivers, transmission channels, and economic consequences.

On the recent slowdown in global trade
Emine Boz, Matthieu Bussière and Clément Marsilli (VoxEU) Nov 12, 2014
The past three years have witnessed a slowdown in global trade. This column shows that the slowdown was particularly pronounced in advanced economies, especially the Eurozone. In a panel of 18 OECD economies, most of the slowdown can be explained by cyclical factors. However, structural factors – global value chains and especially protectionism – may have played a role too.

Contagion in the European sovereign debt crisis
Brent Glover and Seth Richards-Shubik (VoxEU) Nov 12, 2014
Understanding the probability and magnitude of financial contagion is essential for policymaking. This column applies a framework for modelling financial contagion to data on the cross-holding and credit risk of sovereign debt in Europe. Credit markets perceived little risk of contagion from these spillovers following a sovereign default. It is important for policy to assess other possible channels for contagion that could generate even bigger losses.

Penalise banks but use the money well Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Nov 13, 2014
One lesson from the financial crisis is that opacity has a nasty habit of breeding abuse.

Prepare for the worst on productivity Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Nov 13, 2014
The poor performance poses challenges to politicians, policy makers and business.

G20 is forum for world economy impotence Financial Times Subscription Required
Chris Giles (FT) Nov 13, 2014
Flourishes on international diplomacy are tarnished.

Bargain hunting among oil producers Financial Times Subscription Required
James Mackintosh (FT) Nov 13, 2014
Investors thinking about buying oil shares after their fall should be wary.

Hopes for eurozone bank lending misguided Financial Times Subscription Required
Erik Nielsen (FT) Nov 13, 2014
Austerity policies have been administered in unprecedented doses.

Regulation: Banks count the risks and rewards Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Arnold and Sam Fleming (FT) Nov 13, 2014
Crackdown on money laundering and terrorist funding hits flow of cash to developing world.

Hopes for eurozone bank lending misguided Financial Times Subscription Required
Erik Nielsen (FT) Nov 13, 2014
Austerity policies have been administered in unprecedented doses.

The Factory to the World Needs a Hand New York Times Subscription Required
Thomas Fuller (NYT) Nov 13, 2014
For more than a decade, China and its neighbors have seemingly lived by a tacit agreement: Trade more, play down disputes and enjoy the rising wealth. But wariness and fragility are setting in.

Fostering Growth With Greater Economic Cooperation New York Times Subscription Required
Sonia Kolesnikov-Jessop (NYT) Nov 13, 2014
Takehiko Nakao, president of the Asian Development Bank, explains how the Group of 20, which is meeting in Australia this weekend, can bolster economies and fight corruption.

China’s growing clout
Fareed Zakaria (WP) Nov 13, 2014
The nation is trying to redraw the international system in Asia.

The G-20 Doesn't Need a Growth Target
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Nov 13, 2014
World leaders gathering for the G-20 summit in Brisbane should be focused on improving the quality, not the quantity of GDP growth.

Putin Is the Biggest Gold Bug
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Nov 13, 2014
Russia's central bank is buying more gold than any other as President Vladimir Putin seeks independence from a global financial system dominated by the West.

Mexico’s Growth Problem
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Nov 13, 2014
When Mexico signed the North American Free Trade Agreement more than 20 years ago, the hope was that the economy would be swept forward by a rising wave of globalization. By many measures, that hope has been amply fulfilled, except where it counts most over the long term: overall productivity and economic growth.

How the G-20 Should End Too-Big-to-Fail
Bloomberg View Nov 13, 2014
Global regulators' approach to ending big bank bailouts is more complicated than it needs to be.

Who Will Pay for China's Bust?
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Nov 13, 2014
A Chinese credit bust might affect the global financial system after all.

The Global Trade Disorder: New GTA data
Simon J Evenett (VoxEU) Nov 13, 2014
The retreat to protectionism since the Global Financial Crisis has been more severe than previously imagined. Peak protectionism was believed to have passed in 2009. With evidence from the latest Global Trade Alert report, this column shows that since 2012 protectionist measures by G20 countries have exceeded the 2009 peak – which has also been revised upwards. Despite committing to liberalisation, G20 countries have a substantially worse record of protectionism than the next ten largest trading countries.

Sticky information and expectations of forecasters
Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani and Natalia Tamirisa (VoxEU) Nov 13, 2014
Forecasts of many macroeconomic variables tend to be serially correlated, which is inconsistent with rational expectations. This column presents new evidence from a two-decade panel of individual forecasts from 36 different nations. While there is evidence of sluggish behaviour in average forecasts, individual forecasts are revised quite often. Sticky information theory might not be an adequate description of the expectations formation of forecasters.

Bankers’ bonuses and performance sensitivity
Matthias Efing, Harald Hau, Patrick Kampkötter and Johannes Steinbrecher (VoxEU) Nov 13, 2014
Bankers’ bonuses are increasingly regulated but we know little about how they affect risk-taking and value-creation. Based on payroll data from 1.2 million bank employee-years in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland, this column finds evidence that bonuses affect both profits and risk-taking. Policy thus needs to strike a balance and acknowledge the limited regulatory capacity to determine optimal incentives. Higher capital requirements and shareholder empowerment might outperform simple bonus regulations.

Is Germany ready to lead?
Anne Applebaum (WP) Nov 14, 2014
In Germany, support for a “greater world role” is higher than it used to be, but still not overwhelming.

The fix is in
Carol Osler (Pieria) Nov 14, 2014
How banks allegedly rigged the $5.3bn foreign exchange market.

Europe's Sluggish Growth Is a Global Threat
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Nov 14, 2014
Today's growth numbers were an improvement, but they still are far too weak.

Europe's Bonds Are Unyielding
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Nov 14, 2014
Corporate bond yields in Europe are so low that it's hard to see how more cheap cash from the ECB can arouse the region's animal spirits.

The Population Challenge
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Nov 14, 2014
The world is facing two major demographic problems: As the world population swells, fueled by developing countries, developed countries are struggling to cope with shrinking and aging workforces. Fortunately, objective fact-based analysis has enabled economists to identify cost-effective solutions to the global population challenge.

Europe’s Franco-German Dream Team
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Nov 14, 2014
Europe’s economic struggles are taking their toll, reflected in the hopelessness and extremism that increasingly characterize European politics. A forthcoming reform proposal, produced by the highly respected economists Jean Pisani-Ferry and Henrik Enderlein, could be the first step toward turning the situation around.

Emissions Reduction by the Numbers
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Nov 14, 2014
The US and China have announced a bilateral deal that would cut both countries’ greenhouse-gas emissions significantly over the next 20 years. But how can we determine whether the US and Chinese targets – and those proposed by other countries – are fair?

Hard to Hit Two Targets at Once: The ECB ABS Asset Purchase Programme
Felix Blomenkamp (PIMCO) Nov 14, 2014
We believe that reviving the asset-backed securities (ABS) market is a better near-term goal, and the primary target of the European Central Bank's (ECB) buying programme should be the new issuance market. Sizeable purchases by the ECB in the European ABS market carry the possible risks of crowding out established investors and suppressing interest in this asset class. By not crowding out existing investors while making the asset class more attractive to issuers and investors alike, the ECB has an opportunity to reach its ultimate goal to spur lending.

A safe asset for Eurozone QE: A proposal
Luis Garicano and Lucrezia Reichlin (VoxEU) Nov 14, 2014
The ECB seems to be edging towards QE, but faces a quandary on what to buy. This proposal suggests that the ECB buy ‘Safe Market Bonds’. These would be synthetic bonds formed by the senior tranches of EZ national bonds combined in GDP-weighted proportions. The ECB would merely announce the features of the synthetic bonds it will purchase. The market would create the bonds in response to this announcement, thus avoiding new EZ-level institutions or funds.

Warning Signs From Commodity Prices New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Nov 15, 2014
Lower-priced fuels and metals are providing a windfall - and a cause for worry.

High marginal tax rates on the top 1%
Fabian Kindermann and Dirk Krueger (VoxEU) Nov 15, 2014
Optimal tax rates for the rich are a perennial source of controversy. This column argues that high marginal tax rates on the top 1% of earners can make so[CS1] ciety as a whole better off. Not knowing whether they would ever make it into the top 1%, but understanding it is very unlikely, households especially at younger ages would happily accept a life that is somewhat better most of the time and significantly worse in the rare event they rise to the top 1%.

Globalisation and the rise of the robots
Dalia Marin (VoxEU) Nov 15, 2014
Recent advances in artificial intelligence could affect manufacturing and the labour markets in a number of ways. This column explores two of them. First, it finds no confirmation that machines have decreased the cost of labour and brought manufacturing back to rich countries. Second, it argues that machines could replace highly skilled workers rather than increase the demand for their labour. Technology and skills are thus substitutes not complements.

Economics of Germany’s parallel universe Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Nov 16, 2014
The Council of Economic Experts says nothing about investment. It wants Merkel to be tougher.

Hedge fund rules make financial system fragile Financial Times Subscription Required
Sebastian Mallaby (FT) Nov 16, 2014
Charging 2 per cent to hold assets when returns are low is wrong.

WTO fails to mask its structural problems Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Nov 16, 2014
Members need to discuss reforms that will avoid paralysis.

China’s New Old Financial Capital Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Nov 16, 2014
A stock-exchange deal shows Hong Kong’s advantage over Shanghai.

Mexico’s Rule of Law Crisis Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mary O’Grady (WSJ) Nov 16, 2014
The fate of 43 missing university students and corruption allegations test President Peña Nieto’s pledge to transform the country.

Who’s Afraid of a Little Deflation? Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
John Cochrane (WSJ) Nov 16, 2014
A sudden drop wouldn’t be good, but a steady annual decline of, say, 2%? Worries about that are overblown.

In India, Growth Breeds Waste New York Times Subscription Required
Jerry Pinto (NYT) Nov 17, 2014
Indians are getting dirtier as they get richer, but cleaning up is still someone else's job.

TTIP is about regulatory coherence
Lionel Fontagné and Sébastien Jean (VoxEU) Nov 16, 2014
The TransAtlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has become a full-blown political issue as the two largest economic entities in the world are negotiating a deep integration agreement, going beyond what has been done previously in any agreement except the EU’s Single Market. This column estimates that a phasing-out of tariffs accompanied by a 25% cut in the trade restrictiveness of non-tariff measures would increase trade in goods and services between the two regions by 50%.

Europe cannot afford to dance around debt Financial Times Subscription Required
Barry Eichengreen (FT) Nov 17, 2014
No country can run huge surpluses without inciting taxpayer revolt.

Smoke and errors – Fed transparency and bank supervision Financial Times Subscription Required
Tom Braithwaite (FT) Nov 17, 2014
Critics of US central bank suggest more scrutiny is needed.

Don’t fear the dollar’s ‘orderly rise’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephanie Flanders (FT) Nov 17, 2014
Major trends tend to linger and the US currency has further headroom.

Capex as a guide for investing Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephen Foley (FT) Nov 17, 2014
Capital expenditure is a sign of confidence in future growth.

Bonds: anatomy of a market meltdown Financial Times Subscription Required
Tracy Alloway and Michael MacKenzie (FT) Nov 17, 2014
Fall in Treasury bond yields has left investors asking if world’s safe haven needs shoring up.

America’s bank bailouts worked
Pepper Culpepper (WP) Nov 17, 2014
American voters think that they got a raw deal from the bailout of the financial sector. In fact they did well, thanks to U.S. regulators' ability to bully big U.S. banks into accepting help they didn't want.

International investment in Europe: A canary in the coal mine?
Michael Gestrin (OECD Insight) Nov 17, 2014
A look at whether declines in the EU’s flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) simply reflect a particularly severe FDI cycle or whether there might also be structural factors involved.

Japan's Warning to the World
Bloomberg View Nov 17, 2014
The U.S. and Europe must act to avoid a similarly damaging stagnation.

What to Make of the G-20
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Nov 17, 2014
The G-20 and other summits cost a lot and produce little. Their benefit? They give cover to bilateral deals, such as the U.S.-China climate pact.

A Brief History of the Wealth Gap
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Nov 17, 2014
Wealth, public policy and economic inequality developed along two very different paths in Europe and the U.S.

A Witch Hunt in Finance Won't Create a Safer World
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Nov 17, 2014
If almost everyone within a financial institution is deemed responsible for risk-taking, then no one really carries the can.

Reforming China’s Commanding Heights
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Nov 17, 2014
The problem with China's economy is not the volume of state-owned assets, but their concentration in a few companies and industries, which poses risks to economic performance. So the logical solution is not to privatize, but to diversify the state's holdings over time.

The future of Cocos
Martijn Boermans, Sinziana Petrescu and Razvan Vlahu (VoxEU) Nov 17, 2014
Contingent convertible capital instruments – also known as CoCos – have grown in popularity since the financial crisis. This column suggests that the search for yield and the tightening of capital requirements have resulted in a new wave of Coco issuances. While many of their features and risks remain unclear, Cocos may act as a buffer that makes banks more resilient in times of crisis.

The curse of weak global demand Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Nov 18, 2014
Feeble economic performance has occurred despite the most aggressive monetary policies.

China’s can-do versus Congress gridlock Financial Times Subscription Required
Tom Mitchell (FT) Nov 18, 2014
What is wanted is a trade agreement with a dress code, not ‘a tuxedo with flip-flops’.

Beware unpleasant surprise in forecasting Financial Times Subscription Required
James Mackintosh (FT) Nov 18, 2014
Median long-run rate prediction is down from 4% last December to 3.75%

ECB inflation target lacks credibility Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrew Balls (FT) Nov 18, 2014
Japan shows costs of acting too late on deflation risk.

Asia Pushes Hard for Clean Energy New York Times Subscription Required
Beth Gardiner (NYT) Nov 18, 2014
More than $250 billion a year will pour into renewable energy generation, two-thirds of Asia’s power investment, but the use of fossil fuels is also growing.

Europe Must Pay Heed to Japan's New Slide
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Nov 18, 2014
Shinzo Abe's "three arrows" plan loses its aim as the Japanese economy officially sinks into recession.

Islamic State's Currency Is So 7th Century
Stephen Mihm (Bloomberg View) Nov 18, 2014
Breaking out of the “satanic usury-based global economic system” is easier said than done.

Japan Needs to Think Different
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Nov 18, 2014
Billions in government bond-buying haven't shocked the Japanese economy into life. Here's a better idea: Pay citizens to shop.

The Burden of a Stronger Dollar
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Nov 18, 2014
As the world wrestles with a faltering economic recovery, the dollar shows that the U.S. is doing more than its fair share.

Creativity, Corporatism, and Crowds
Robert J. Shiller (Project Syndicate) Nov 18, 2014
Ultimately, economic progress depends not on saving and the accumulation of capital, but on creativity. That is why fear of “secular stagnation” in today’s advanced economies has many wondering how creativity can be spurred.

Investing in Happy Endings
Lucy P. Marcus (Project Syndicate) Nov 18, 2014
Public and private investment in the real economy has been under attack since the 2008 financial crisis. In difficult economic times, it may seem logical to cut investments that yield results only in the long term; in fact, it is deeply irrational.

The Next Trade Breakthroughs
Michael J. Boskin (Project Syndicate) Nov 18, 2014
Though the global economy is slowing, three important opportunities for growth from trade liberalization are being neglected. The lesson of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which celebrates its 20th birthday this year, is that such opportunities should not be missed.

Dial D for Development
Brian Keeley (OECD Insight) Nov 19, 2014
Not much good has come from the Ebola crisis, save this: It has raised awareness of the fact that we already have a weapon in our hands that could help fight such epidemics – our mobile phones.

India’s Economic Hotspots
Anu Madgavkar and Rakesh Mohan (Project Syndicate) Nov 19, 2014
India’s strong overall growth prospects conceal a patchwork of opportunities within states, districts, cities, and even towns. Investors looking for the best returns should consider these lesser-known economic clusters.

Growth, inequality, and social welfare
David Dollar, Tatjana Kleineberg and Aart Kraay (VoxEU) Nov 19, 2014
Concerns about inequality are at the forefront of many policy debates. While inequality has increased in many countries over the past few decades, in others it has decreased. This column uses data from 117 countries over the past four decades to investigate the importance of such changes in inequality, as well as of overall economic growth. Whereas inequality changes in most countries have been small, differences in overall growth performance have been large. Policymakers should therefore be careful not to undermine growth in the quest for greater equality.

What does the market think? A general approach to inferring market expectations from futures prices
Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian (VoxEU) Nov 19, 2014
Futures prices are a potentially valuable source of information about market expectations of asset prices. This column discusses a general approach to recovering this expectation when there is no agreement on the nature of the time-varying risk premium contained in futures prices. The authors illustrate this approach by tackling the long-standing problem of how to recover the market expectation of the price of crude oil.

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