News & Commentary

International News International news pertinent to international economics is added here, together with several major newspapers and news magazines. The articles, in general, are held for a month on this main page. You can also access the older archived news articles, with the caveat that there is no guarantee that the links remain live. Current news on international financial markets can be found here. Note: Links to the New York Times require a free registration.

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July 2014 Archive

August 2014 Archive

The fight for ‘China’s sorrow’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Lucy Hornby (FT) Sep 1, 2014
As the economy booms, the burden on the Yellow River has increased and the challenge for Beijing is to prevent the sixth-longest river running dry.

Financial reforms will not help crises Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Sep 1, 2014
Unlike a bailout, bailing in creditors will inflict losses on other systemically important financial institutions.

India’s economic confidence returns Financial Times Subscription Required
James Crabtree (FT) Sep 1, 2014
The idea that India could expand more rapidly than China no longer seems absurd, but the country’s recovery remains both gradual and fragile.

The Human Toll of Offshoring New York Times Subscription Required
Joe Nocera (NYT) Sep 1, 2014
What should we be doing to make globalization work for us instead of against us?

The World's Youngest Failed State Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Madhu Narasimhan (FA) Sep 1, 2014
In the 12 years since gaining independence, East Timor has struggled in almost every facet of economic and political management. As its neighboring economies boom, it is quietly on the path to becoming a failed state. And it is quickly running out of time to change course.

Africa's City on a Hill Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Seth Kaplan (FA) Sep 1, 2014
Lessons from Lagos.

Can't Buy Me Love Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
John Osburg (FA) Sep 1, 2014
China's new rich and its crisis of values.

Banker to the Poor Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Jim Yong Kim (FA) Sep 1, 2014
The World Bank's president talks to Foreign Affairs about fighting inequality, his reform program, and who should succeed him.

Spain's 50-Year Bond Opportunism
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 1, 2014
Spain can borrow money for half a century at just 4%; where on earth is its motivation for economic reform expected to come from?

Down with Dengism
Minxin Pei (Project Syndicate) Sep 1, 2014
China has held a series of high-profile ceremonies honoring the 110th anniversary of former leader Deng Xiaoping’s birth. But, though Deng deserves appreciation for having brought China back from the abyss of Maoism, his authoritarian development model is impeding China’s prospects.

Democracy in the Twenty-First Century
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Sep 1, 2014
The economist Thomas Piketty’s forecast of still higher levels of inequality does not reflect the inexorable laws of economics. Indeed, the main question today is not really about capital in the twenty-first century; it is about democracy in the twenty-first century.

Christian Daude & Eduardo Levy Yeyati (VoxEU) Sep 1, 2014
Central banks’ exchange rate interventions are typically attributed to precautionary, prudential, or mercantilist motives. This column documents the prevalence of an alternative motive – that of stabilising the exchange rate – in emerging markets, where, despite heavy intervention, the Global Crisis saw important deviations of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium value. Exchange rate intervention is shown to be effective, but more so at containing appreciations than depreciations.

Has Draghi Really Saved the Euro? Adobe Acrobat Required
Desmond Lachman (TIE) Sep 1, 2014
The currency rests on two questionable premises.

The Great Bubble Debate Adobe Acrobat Required
Bernard Connolly (TIE) Sep 1, 2014
Can both sides be right?

Yellen vs. the BIS: Whose Thesis Makes Better Sense? Recommended! Adobe Acrobat Required
Various (TIE) Sep 1, 2014
The economic policy world is in stark intellectual disagreement.

Eurozone: Draghi’s new deal Financial Times Subscription Required
Claire Jones (FT) Sep 2, 2014
The ECB president’s call for a fiscal and monetary compact between it and the currency bloc members is seen as vital by some observers but a ploy by others.

Predators eye opportunities to swoop in Asia Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 2, 2014
Investors are gearing up for what many expect to be more widespread openings across Asia as both the level and the cost of debt rises.

Holdouts give vultures a bad name Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 2, 2014
Argentina’s creditors should make every effort to protect themselves from the vagaries of American judges.

Instinct and analysis inform wise choices Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) Sep 2, 2014
We have an army of transport modellers, environmental experts and risk managers turning evidence-based policy into policy-based evidence.

QE would end EU financial fragmentation Financial Times Subscription Required
Gene Frieda (FT) Sep 2, 2014
For large swaths of the eurozone real interest rates remain inappropriately high given low levels of inflation, despite yields being at all-time lows.

The Climate Change Agenda Needs to Adapt to Reality Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Edward P. Lazear (WSJ) Sep 2, 2014
Limiting carbon emissions won't work. Better to begin adjusting to a warmer world.

China's Runaway Steel Industry
Adam Minter (Bloomberg View) Sep 2, 2014
Despite orders from Beijing, China's steel industry continues to expand at a dizzying and unprofitable pace. Can anything slow it down?

Why This Market Rally Is So Unloved
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 2, 2014
Readers' comments suggest investors don't trust the rally but won't fight central banks.

Educating Everyone
Gordon Brown (Project Syndicate) Sep 2, 2014
The odds are weighed heavily against achieving the target set by the Millennium Development Goals of ensuring by December 2015 that every school-age child is actually in school. With children in Gaza, Syria, Iraq, and Nigeria in the firing line in recent months, the scale of the challenge could not be more apparent.

Teaching Economic Dynamism
Edmund S. Phelps (Project Syndicate) Sep 2, 2014
Business leaders often argue that the widening education gap – the disparity between what young people learn and the skills that the job market demands – is a leading contributor to high unemployment and slow growth in many countries. But the two main arguments underpinning that claim are weak, at best.

The Exaggerated Death of Inflation
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Sep 2, 2014
Modern central banking has worked wonders to bring down inflation. Ultimately, however, a central bank’s anti-inflation policies can work only within the context of a macroeconomic and political framework that is consistent with price stability.

Let There Be Light Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Todd Moss and Benjamin Leo (FA) Sep 2, 2014
Washington's ambitious plan to help Africa generate electricity.

Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy
Reuven Glick and Mark M. Spiegel (FRBSF Economic Letter) Sep 2, 2014
The challenges faced by policymakers in advanced and emerging economies as they continue to recover from the recent global financial crisis.

The impact of capital requirements on bank lending
Jonathan Bridges, David Gregory, Mette Nielsen, Silvia Pezzini, Amar Radia and Marco Spaltro (VoxEU) Sep 2, 2014
Since the Global Crisis, support has grown for the use of time-varying capital requirements as a macroprudential policy tool. This column examines the effect of bank-specific, time-varying capital requirements in the UK between 1990 and 2011. In response to increased capital requirements, banks gradually increase their capital ratios to restore their original buffers above the regulatory minimum, reducing lending temporarily as they do so. The largest effects are on commercial real estate lending, followed by lending to other corporates and then secured lending to households.

China tightens its grip on Hong Kong Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Sep 3, 2014
Power resides with Beijing and the presence of Li, Beijing’s emissary, has relegated Hong Kong’s own officials to irrelevance.

Quantitative easing is the wrong route Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Heise (FT) Sep 3, 2014
Over-indebted households and companies in the eurozone are unlikely to pile up more debt. This makes monetary policy ineffective.

The World’s Polio Problem
Globalist Sep 3, 2014
Polio is still a big problem for poor, war-torn countries.

Why Trade Matters in Four Maps
Fred Dews (Brookings) Sep 3, 2014
How the U.S. can overcome challenges in current trade negotiations.

Mario Draghi's Stimulus Dilemma
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 3, 2014
Thanks to the inaction of European governments, the ECB probably won't be able to launch a full-scale stimulus program this week.

Is Abenomics Working?
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Sep 3, 2014
Preliminary GDP data show a 6.8% contraction year-on-year in the second quarter of this year – the largest since the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that devastated the country. It is time for Japan's leaders to shift their focus toward a new growth strategy, centered on labor-market reform, deregulation, and corporate-tax changes.

Should Scotland Leave the Pound Zone?
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Sep 3, 2014
Advocates of independence for Scotland have long insisted that they are motivated by the distinctiveness of Scottish identity. But, as Scots prepare to vote in this month's referendum on whether to remain in the UK, the more immediate issue is money.

The political economy of regional policy and industrial location
Magnus Wiberg (VoxEU) Sep 3, 2014
Regional policy is a primary expenditure item for many countries. A substantial share of the regional policy budget is allocated to firms in poor regions. This column argues that electoral concerns and rent-seeking behaviour bias regional policy in favour of smaller regions. However, this bias lowers total welfare.

A world retreating from globalisation Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) Sep 4, 2014
The architect of the present era of globalisation is no longer willing to be its guarantor as it no longer serves the national interests.

The price of keeping the pound for Scots Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 4, 2014
Scotland, but not the UK, would have an incentive to profligacy, and one-sided risk demands one-sided control.

An unequal world is an economic threat Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Sep 4, 2014
Since the global economic crisis of 2008, western growth rates have been disappointing: economists fear ‘secular stagnation’

Draghi brings out ABS rocket boosters Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Sep 4, 2014
ABS programme will take central bank significantly closer to providing credit direct to the real economy, relieving burden on weakened banks.

Africa Beyond Ebola
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Sep 4, 2014
Among this summer’s grave global worries, the spread of the Ebola virus has monopolized the discussion of Sub-Saharan Africa and reinvigorated hoary notions of disorder and despair – at a time when a new image of a dynamic Africa was emerging. In fact, there is still strong reason for optimism about the region’s prospects.

The BIS Bashers
Mojmír Hampl (Project Syndicate) Sep 4, 2014
The Bank for International Settlements exists not just to represent central banks, but also to offer ideas and intellectual feedback. Unfortunately, too many central bankers are seeking to marginalize the BIS in debates over "unconventional" monetary policy.

Africa’s Hidden Hunger
Ramadhani Abdallah Noor (Project Syndicate) Sep 4, 2014
Just over 20 years ago, South African photographer Kevin Carter shocked the world with a controversial photograph of a famished young Sudanese child being watched by a vulture during a famine. Two decades later, the conditions that the photograph depicts remain essentially the same.

What The Economist could have read before suggesting that U.S. slavery wasn’t all bad
Chris Blattman (WP) Sep 5, 2014
On Friday, The Economist retracted a book review that went soft on slavery. But the review of Edward Baptist’s book, “The Half Has Never Been Told” wasn’t just racially insensitive, it was soft on evidence, too.

The ECB Throws down the Gauntlet
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Sep 5, 2014
The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised financial markets on September 4 by announcing an interest rate cut of 10 basis points, a new program to purchase asset-backed securities (ABS) in the nonfinancial sector, and another round of purchases of covered bank bonds.

Should Venezuela Default?
Ricardo Hausmann and Miguel Angel Santos (Project Syndicate) Sep 5, 2014
The fact that President Nicolás Maduro's administration has chosen to default on 30 million Venezuelans, rather than on Wall Street, is not a sign of its moral rectitude. It is a signal of its moral bankruptcy.

Were we happier in the stone age?
Yuval Noah Harari (Guardian) Sep 5, 2014
Does modern life make us happy? We have gained much but we have lost a great deal too. Are humans better suited to a hunter-gatherer lifestyle?

There's poverty in the UK, but we are better off calling it inequality
John Lanchester (Guardian) Sep 5, 2014
If you think the world is too divided into those who have the cream and those who don't, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Increasing government popularity predicts emerging-market financial crises
Christoph Trebesch, Helios Herrera and Guillermo L. Ordoñez (VoxEU) Sep 6, 2014
Financial crises are often credit booms gone bust. This column argues that ‘political booms’, defined as an increase in government popularity, are also a good predictor of financial crises. The phenomenon of ‘political booms gone bust’ is, however, only observable in emerging markets. In these countries, politicians have more to gain from riding the popularity benefits of unsustainable booms.

Trade liberalisation, quality upgrading, and export prices
Haichao Fan, Yao Amber Li and Stephen Yeaple (VoxEU) Sep 6, 2014
Trade liberalisation has transformed the economies of many developing countries. This column presents evidence from China’s accession to the WTO. The authors find that high tariffs on imported inputs prevented Chinese firms from producing high-quality goods. When these tariffs were reduced, firms upgraded the quality of their products, entering more competitive foreign markets.

Allegations of dirty tricks blur picture Financial Times Subscription Required
Demetri Sevastopulo (FT) Sep 7, 2014
Critics say China is dismantling the ‘one country, two systems’ model, aided by a business community that worries about losing contracts.

What Draghi must do next to fix Europe Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Sep 7, 2014
Eurozone policy makers and their economic advisers are structuralists by inclination. The monetarists are mostly gone, even in Germany.

Reform is the answer to secular stagnation Financial Times Subscription Required
Lawrence Summers (FT) Sep 7, 2014
There may now be supply-side barriers that hold the economy back before constraints on demand start to bind.

Sanctions oil Russia-China relations Financial Times Subscription Required
Guy Chazan (FT) Sep 7, 2014
As restrictions on access to western funds start to bite Moscow is building ties with the neighbour it was at war with 45 years ago.

China’s Education Gap New York Times Subscription Required
Helen Gao (NYT) Sep 7, 2014
The school system serves to reinforce entrenched social exclusion.

Scots, What the Heck? New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Sep 7, 2014
The very bad economics of independence.

The Fed Is Looking Like a Sovereign Wealth Fund
David Malpass (WSJ) Sep 7, 2014
Instead of tackling a complex new investment mission, the Fed should establish a clear portfolio wind-down process.

A ‘sovereign subsidy’ – zero risk weights and sovereign risk spillovers
Josef Korte and Sascha Steffen (VoxEU) Sep 7, 2014
European banking regulation assigns a risk weight of zero to sovereign debt issued by EU member countries, making it an attractive investment for European banks. This column defines a ‘sovereign subsidy’ as a new measure quantifying to what extent banks are undercapitalised due to the zero risk weights. Using recent sovereign debt exposure data, the authors describe the build-up of this subsidy for both domestic and cross-country exposures.

Australia: Culture clash Financial Times Subscription Required
Jamie Smyth (FT) Sep 8, 2014
The economy is facing its biggest challenge in a generation and yet the government seems preoccupied with policies that have led some to claim it is waging an ideological war.

Why investors ignore war and terror Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Sep 8, 2014
Global political change has done more to create investment opportunities than to destroy them while it is economics that shifts sentiment.

Default call highlights Venezuelan weakness Financial Times Subscription Required
Paul Rathbone (FT) Sep 8, 2014
Harvard economist suggests Caracas default on its foreign bonds to share its financial burdens with its creditors, rather than its citizens alone.

Question hangs over Draghi’s latest salvo Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Sep 8, 2014
There is good reason to be sceptical. The new measures are indirect and there is no guarantee that freed-up lending capacity will be channelled into SMEs.

Salmond’s threat on the pound and debt Financial Times Subscription Required
James Mackintosh (FT) Sep 8, 2014
There will almost certainly be no actual debt repudiation despite threat by Scotland’s first minister. Scotland will not take on debt and then refuse to pay.

Post-QE wave to break over fund managers Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Sep 8, 2014
Central banks helped the industry avoid disaster and rebuild profits, but managers will need to deal with the side effects of unconventional policy.

Facing Reality in the Eurozone
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Sep 8, 2014
The implications of ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments at the annual Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers contained a more startling implication than many initially recognized. Escaping from recession and avoiding a eurozone breakup will require ECB-financed fiscal stimulus.

Africa’s Education Imperative
Viswanathan Shankar (Project Syndicate) Sep 8, 2014
In Africa, large-scale investment in education has enabled significant gains in literacy, school attendance, and university enrollment in recent years. But the continent still has a long way to go.

Scotland's Exit: An Earthquake for Britain
Denis MacShane (Globalist) Sep 8, 2014
London has already lost in the fight for Scottish independence.

The Federal Reserve in the run-up to the Global Crisis
Stephen Golub, Ayse Kaya and Michael Reay (VoxEU) Sep 8, 2014
Since the Global Crisis, critics have questioned why regulatory agencies failed to prevent it. This column argues that the US Federal Reserve was aware of potential problems brewing in the financial system, but was largely unconcerned by them. Both Greenspan and Bernanke subscribed to the view that identifying bubbles is very difficult, pre-emptive bursting may be harmful, and that central banks could limit the damage ex post. The scripted nature of FOMC meetings, the focus on the Greenbook, and a ‘silo’ mentality reduced the impact of dissenting views.

Income-induced expenditure switching: Evidence from Latvia
Rudolfs Bems and Julian di Giovanni (VoxEU) Sep 8, 2014
Unconventional policy responses to the 2008-09 Crisis in Latvia and its subsequent recovery caught many economists by surprise. This column uses evidence from detailed product-level data to argue that income-induced expenditure switching from expensive imported to cheap domestic goods was an important contributor to the external adjustment. The conventional relative price channel played a small role.

Modi Misses the Mark Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Derek Scissors (FA) Sep 8, 2014
India's new government lacks economic vision.

Europe has to do whatever it takes Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 9, 2014
The new European Commission needs to take a stand for common sense and growth, instead of insisting on misery yet again.

Dilemma of defining banking risk appetite Financial Times Subscription Required
Howard Davies (FT) Sep 9, 2014
Reaching an understanding that allows banks to take measured risks without fear of later challenge remains difficult.

Rural Capitals, Big-Time Problems New York Times Subscription Required
Filipe R. Campante (NYT) Sep 9, 2014
Moving a government to an isolated spot, as Argentina may do, can mean more corruption.

The Federal Reserve's Too Cozy Relations With Banks Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Stephen Haber and Ross Levine (WSJ) Sep 9, 2014
Working at the Fed shouldn't be an audition for a Wall Street job. Waiting periods and other reforms are needed.

The Age of the Unthinkable Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge (WSJ) Sep 9, 2014
Tumultuous days in the world's democracies present an opening for conservative ideas to flourish.

Restructuring Debt Restructuring
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Sep 9, 2014
Argentina's latest default was an episode from which no one – not the Argentine government, not the holdout investors that sued for full payment, and not US federal court judge Thomas Griesa, who ruled in favor of the "vultures" – emerged smelling like a rose. But sometimes the worst intentions yield the best results.

A New Trans-American Partnership
Ernesto Talvi (Project Syndicate) Sep 9, 2014
Rediscovering the spirit of the 1994 Summit of the Americas, where US President Bill Clinton and his Latin American counterparts set out a grand vision for the hemisphere, would benefit all. One way to revive that sense of common purpose would be to create a new Trans-American Partnership.

It's Not About the Money Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Mark Blyth (FA) Sep 9, 2014
Why Scotland might just say yes to independence.

Scotland’s fateful choice Financial Times Subscription Required
FT editors Sep 10, 2014
The case for union is overwhelming. The path of separation is a fool's errand, one fraught with danger and uncertainty.

Japan is creating jobs but not prosperity Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Sep 10, 2014
Casualisation of the labour market is stifling the reflationary experiment, and wages need to rise in line with inflation.

Scots vote poses threat to EU integration Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Sep 10, 2014
Even if the Noes prevail, a close result would further threaten the gradual process of financial integration that has underpinned Europe’s development.

Europe’s bank bail-in rules change game Financial Times Subscription Required
Tim Skeet (FT) Sep 10, 2014
Should investors’ due diligence indicate bank trouble on the horizon, they may find themselves in a bizarre game of cat and mouse with regulators.

Catalonia: Another country Financial Times Subscription Required
Tobias Buck (FT) Sep 10, 2014
Spain is heading for a bitter political crisis as calls for independence from one of its most economically powerful regions come to a head.

WTO Members Return to Geneva, Hoping to Bridge TFA Gap
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 29 Sep 10, 2014
A flurry of meetings is scheduled for the coming weeks as WTO members – having now returned to Geneva following their annual August break – try to pick up the pieces after missing a key implementation deadline this past July.

US-Japan Farm Trade Divides Persist as TPP Chief Negotiators End Hanoi Meet
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 29 Sep 10, 2014
Chief negotiators from 12 Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries concluded a 10-day meeting in Hanoi, Vietnam, earlier today, in an effort to pare down some of their remaining differences. While progress was reported in some areas of the trade talks, a concurrent set of bilateral meetings in Tokyo between the US and Japan showed that the two sides remain at odds on the key issue of agricultural tariffs.

FAO: Ebola Outbreak Putting West African Trade, Food Security in Jeopardy
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 29 Sep 10, 2014
Disruptions in cross-border trade and marketing in the three West African countries most affected by the Ebola outbreak – Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea –have sent food prices soaring, threatening food security

Should the World Fund Food Aid to North Korea?
Marcus Noland (PIIE/Guardian) Sep 10, 2014
For nearly three decades a chronic food emergency has gripped North Korea. In the 1990s a famine killed up to 5 percent of the precrisis population.

The OECD must take charge of promoting long-term investment in developing country infrastructure
Sony Kapoor (OECD) Sep 10, 2014
The world of investment faces two major problems. Problem one is the scarcity – in large swathes of the developing world – of capital in general, and of money for infrastructure investments in particular. Problem two is the sclerotic, even negative rate of return on listed bonds and equities in many OECD economies.

How the Rich Rule
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Sep 10, 2014
Widening inequality in the world’s advanced and developing countries inflicts two blows against democratic politics. Not only does it lead to greater disenfranchisement of the middle and lower classes; it also fosters among the elite a poisonous politics of sectarianism.

Fighting the Fed Both Ways
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 10, 2014
Even in this age of forward guidance, divining what central banks will do next remains an art rather than a science.

Ants Are Cool but Teach Us Nothing
Edward O. Wilson (Bloomberg View) Sep 10, 2014
The awesome superorganisms that ants form are built on instinctive labor specialization of a kind that could never occur in the human species.

Don't Let the Dark Ages Happen Here
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Sep 10, 2014
The Middle East was once a bastion of scientific enlightenment, but the rise of religion played a key role in turning the region into a cultural backwater.

Quantifying the macroeconomic effects of large-scale asset purchases
Karl Walentin (VoxEU) Sep 10, 2014
Central banks have resorted to various unconventional monetary policy tools since the onset of the Global Crisis. This column focuses on the macroeconomic effects of the Federal Reserve’s large-scale purchases of mortgage-backed securities – in particular, through reducing the ‘mortgage spread’ between interest rates on mortgages and government bonds at a given maturity. Although large-scale asset purchases are found to have substantial macroeconomic effects, they may not necessarily be the best policy tool at the zero lower bound.

To exit the Great Recession, central banks must adapt their policies and models
Marcus Miller and Lei Zhang (VoxEU) Sep 10, 2014
During the Great Moderation, inflation targeting with some form of Taylor rule became the norm at central banks. This column argues that the Global Crisis called for a new approach, and that the divergence in macroeconomic performance since then between the US and the UK on the one hand, and the Eurozone on the other, is partly attributable to monetary policy differences. The ECB’s model of the economy worked well during the Great Moderation, but is ill suited to understanding the Great Recession.

The humanitarian future
Paul Currion (Aeon) Sep 10, 2014
Can humanitarian agencies still fly the flag of high principle, or are they just relics of an imperial model of charity?

The world says No to Scottish separation Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) Sep 11, 2014
The Yes campaign has replaced civic nationalism with identity politics in a cynical, bewildering and finite game.

Virtual drawbridge of fortress finance Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Sep 11, 2014
The big question is what might happen if Russian hackers stop feeling they have a stake in global finance or market stability.

Referendum poses threat to EU integration Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Sep 11, 2014
Even if the Noes prevail, a close result would further threaten the gradual process of financial integration that has underpinned Europe’s development.

Eurozone must change mindset to survive Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephen King (FT) Sep 11, 2014
Monetary policy alone will not be enough to solve the European single currency area’s deep-rooted problems.

The Inflation Cult New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Sep 11, 2014
We're still trying to figure out the persistence and power of the people who keep predicting runaway inflation.

If Scotland Goes, Then Britain Too? New York Times Subscription Required
Jenny Anderson (NYT) Sep 11, 2014
As Scotland prepares to vote on independence on Thursday, British bankers worry about an exit from the European Union.

Preventing the Next Argentina Foreign Policy Subscription Required
Jamila Trindle (FP) Sep 11, 2014
Efforts to fix the global debt system grind on with no quick fix.

On inequality - with any search for answers, it helps if people can first agree on the question
Kevin Murphy (Pieria) Sep 11, 2014
Income inequality is by no means a new concern but it is one that seems to have become increasingly controversial and politicised in recent years.

Will Currencies Undermine Calm in Markets?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 11, 2014
Currency gyrations could erode the financial stability that central banks have worked so hard to achieve.

Spain Should Beware Scottish Precedent
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 11, 2014
Following the money suggests Catalonia is the most likely candidate to attempt to follow Scotland down the path to independence.

Monetary Policy Isn't Class Warfare
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg View) Sep 11, 2014
What the pundits are misunderstanding about the Federal Reserve.

Masters of Earth, Alone in the Universe
Edward O. Wilson (Bloomberg View) Sep 11, 2014
If humankind is to plan a more rational, catastrophe-proof future, we need to understand ourselves in both evolutionary and psychological terms.

Education and Opportunity
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) Sep 11, 2014
In recent decades, a concerted effort from governments and international institutions has contributed to considerable progress in expanding educational opportunities and school-enrollment rates worldwide. But there is much more to be done, particularly with respect to improving the quality of education.

Parallels to 1937
Robert J. Shiller (Project Syndicate) Sep 11, 2014
The depression that followed the 1929 stock-market crash took a turn for the worse eight years later, and recovery came only with the enormous economic stimulus provided by World War II, a conflict that cost more than 60 million lives. The global situation today is not nearly so dire, but there are parallels, particularly to 1937.

High-Frequency Trading Recommended!
Donald MacKenzie (LRB) Sep 11, 2014
Originally, the data needed for high-frequency trading travelled almost exclusively via fibre-optic cables, in which signals move at about two-thirds of the speed that light travels in a vacuum. But 125,000 miles per second isn’t fast enough if other market participants are faster. So there’s a race on.

Worth Its Weight New York Times Subscription Required
Daniel W. Drezner (NYT) Sep 12, 2014
A historian examines the rise of the gold standard and the economies that have embraced and abandoned it.

We Are All Quants Now Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Paula Marantz Cohen (WSJ) Sep 12, 2014
What's 'like' got to do with it? A lot—but not everything.

Bolster the Export-Import Bank
C. Fred Bergsten (WP) Sep 12, 2014
We must fight fire with fire to end the latest export credit race.

Is Scotland Big Enough To Go it Alone?
Peter St. Onge (Mises Daily) Sep 12, 2014
Back when Quebec was weighing secession from Canada, I was a lowly American undergrad living in Montreal. It was an exciting time, since in America we have our railroads torn up and population starved when we secede. Now that Scotland is going through the motions, I figured I’d stir the pot, economically.

Europe's Weak Because It's Uncompetitive
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Sep 12, 2014
The new European competitiveness reports show that an inflexible labor market and overcautious banks are the EU economy's biggest problems.

Asia’s Democratic Dark Spots
Shashi Tharoor (Project Syndicate) Sep 12, 2014
Democracy in Asia lately has proved to be hardier than many might have expected, with free and fair elections enabling the large and divided societies of India and Indonesia to manage important political transitions. But some Asian democracies – notably, Thailand and Pakistan – seem to be losing their way.

Rapid growth in emerging markets and developing economies: Now and forever?
Giang Ho and Paolo Mauro (VoxEU) Sep 12, 2014
Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Is this optimism warranted by past international growth experience? This column explores this question by looking at economic growth forecasts at longer-term horizons.

Is the ECB doing QE?
Charles Wyplosz (VoxEU) Sep 12, 2014
Last week, the ECB announced that it would begin purchasing securities backed by bank lending to households and firms. Whereas markets and the media have generally greeted this announcement with enthusiasm, this column identifies reasons for caution. Other central banks’ quantitative easing programmes have involved purchasing fixed amounts of securities according to a published schedule. In contrast, the ECB’s new policy is demand-driven, and will only be effective if it breaks the vicious circle of recession and negative credit growth.

Argentina Default Flashes Warning to Emerging Markets
Will Hickey (YaleGlobal) Sep 12, 2014
Struggle of countries like Argentina for orderly default mired in Western financial and legal system

Economic convergence: The headwinds return Economist Subscription Required
Economist Sep 13, 2014
Ten years ago, developing economies were catching up with developed ones remarkably quickly. It was an aberration

International reserves before and after the Global Crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?
Joshua Aizenman, Yin-Wong Cheung and Hiro Ito (VoxEU) Sep 13, 2014
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis new patterns of reserve hoarding have emerged. This column identifies structural changes in international reserve accumulation. Emerging markets with higher savings rates tend to use higher buffers of reserves, partially accounting for the higher levels of reserves in east Asia compared to Latin America. While there is no end in sight for reserve hoarding, some of the newly identified factors may mitigate eventual reserve accumulation.

Eurozone recovery: there are no shortcuts
Roberto Perotti (VoxEU) Sep 13, 2014
There is a growing consensus that austerity is contributing to the Eurozone’s macroeconomic malaise, but also that spending cuts are needed in the long run to achieve fiscal sustainability. Some commentators have advocated a temporary tax cut financed by unsterilised ECB purchases of long-term public debt, accompanied by a commitment to future spending cuts. This column argues that such commitments are simply not credible – especially given the moral hazard problem created by central bank monetisation of debts.

Big Tech at Bay Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Waters (FT) Sep 14, 2014
Silicon Valley’s era of untrammelled global expansion is over, as backlash grows against the power and reach of US technology companies.

Divisions behind declining EU influence
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Sep 14, 2014
The eurozone has been running on luck – a commodity about which little is certain expect that tends not to last.

Business and the costs of independence
FT editors Sep 14, 2014
The termination of the 300-year-old single market will raise prices and hit employment.

Venezuela Heads to a Default Reckoning Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mary O'Grady (WSJ) Sep 14, 2014
Amid bills for imports and debt servicing, and shrinking dollar liquidity, something has to give.

China’s ‘creeping invasion’
Jackson Diehl (WP) Sep 14, 2014
The ambitious nation takes its time targeting the global order.

Exchange rate pass-through in developing and emerging markets
Janine Aron and John Muellbauer (VoxEU) Sep 14, 2014
Due to the adoption of inflation targeting and floating exchange rates, and the elimination of capital controls, exchange rate pass-through – the transmission of exchange rate movements to changes in the domestic price level – has become an increasingly important issue in developing and emerging market economies. This column discusses recent research on this topic, and highlights the frequent misspecifications that produce unreliable empirical estimates.

Vibrant nationalism fights shy unionism Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) Sep 15, 2014
The years since the financial crash have been as dismal for the Scots as for most of Britain. How much easier it is to champion a brave new future.

China’s rise is a credit to private enterprise Financial Times Subscription Required
Nicholas Lardy (FT) Sep 15, 2014
Those critics who attribute the country’s economic ascent to the hidden hand of Beijing are wrong and risk losing out on the benefits.

Banya, Bear and Birch: Bank risks abroad Financial Times Subscription Required
Tom Braithwaite (FT) Sep 15, 2014
Investors have proved stoical but here has been a relative shift away from those banks that are more exposed to geopolitical uncertainty.

Fed should raise rates sooner than later Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrew Wilson (FT) Sep 15, 2014
The plan to proceed gradually raises the risk that the Fed may later have to move more aggressively than it envisions now, creating new challenges.

The Huge Costs of Scotland Getting Small
Adam S. Posen (PIIE/scotsman) Sep 15, 2014
As the song says, "Don't it always seem to go that you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone." The Scottish push for secession from the United Kingdom takes for granted the benefits of peaceful, deep, economic, social, and political integration, all of which will indeed start to go following a Yes vote.

The Explosive Growth of the Mobile Economy will Change the World
Darrell M. West & Joshua Bleiberg (Brookings) Sep 15, 2014
These smart policies can help the $1.6 trillion mobile economy reach its full potential in the years ahead.

Will the Fed Avoid a 'Language Tantrum'?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 15, 2014
Mohamed El-Erian explores the challenges the Fed faces in communicating interest rate policy and its economic outlook during this week's FOMC meetings.

India and China Should Let Trade Do the Talking
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Sep 15, 2014
When they meet, the leaders of India and China should talk more about a problem they can solve -- trade -- than their intractable border disputes.

Bad Loans Could Bust China
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 15, 2014
The real threat to the world economy isn't a stagnating Europe -- it's China, where bad loans threaten a catastrophic bust.

Size Doesn't Matter Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Fiona Hill and Jeremy Shapiro (FA) Sep 15, 2014
Why Scotland won't be Europe's last region to seek independence.

A future in the EU? Reconciling the ‘Brexit’ debate with a more modern EU Adobe Acrobat Required
Barbara Böttcher and Eva Schmithausen (DB Research) Sep 15, 2014
The future of the British EU membership has become one of the most pressing concerns for the EU. The EU-British relationship has always been one of special character but a number of recent developments have led to a ‘Brexit’ gaining momentum. Only the UK itself will be able to rationalise the domestic debate on EU membership. Economically, Britain and the EU are inextricably linked. Realistic estimates predict losses in the range of 1 to 3% of British GDP in case of a Brexit. Likewise, the Single Market would shrink by 15%.

Debt threatens India’s fragile recovery Financial Times Subscription Required
James Crabtree (FT) Sep 16, 2014
Risk remains that unexploded debt bombs could go off suddenly, damaging confidence in the country’s financial system and its fragile recovery.

The looking-glass world of Fed-watchers Financial Times Subscription Required
FT Sep 16, 2014
In the long run, the state of the economy will prove more important than language on rates in determining the Fed’s actions.

Bloomberg View
James Gibney (Bloomberg View) Sep 16, 2014
China needs to dig a little deeper if it wants to build up its soft power.

Credit Gets You a TV, Not Economic Growth
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Sep 16, 2014
Everyone seems to believe that easy and expanding credit fuels economic growth, even though there's no proof that it does.

What Happens If China Becomes Japan?
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Sep 16, 2014
By all normal indicators, China should be headed for a massive setback.

The G-20 to the Rescue?
Wayne Swan (Project Syndicate) Sep 16, 2014
The G-20’s upcoming meeting in Brisbane, Australia, comes at a time when a precarious global economy requires big decisions to be made. But it is far from clear who will provide the decisive voice needed to set a bold agenda – and then shepherd its implementation.

Vanguard Scotland?
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Sep 16, 2014
Whichever way the Scottish independence referendum goes, the spectacular rise of nationalism, in Scotland and elsewhere in Europe, is a symptom of a diseased political mainstream. It is what happens when a form of politics claims to satisfy every human need except the coziness of communal belonging – and then lets the people down.

The Price of Scottish Independence
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Sep 16, 2014
The costs of secession are a matter of choice, not of inevitability. If cool heads prevail on all sides, Scottish independence could proceed at a relatively low cost, sparing the successor states, the EU, and other parts of the world considerable instability.

Markets’ Rose-Tinted World
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Sep 16, 2014
This has been an unusual year for the global economy, characterized by a series of unanticipated economic, geopolitical, and market shifts – and the final quarter is likely to be no different. So why are financial markets behaving as if they were in a world of their own?

The Government Europe Deserves?
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Sep 16, 2014
The most sobering message from the appointment of the EU's new leadership is that the member states will not suffer anyone who might rock the boat and push integration forward. That might come as a relief for those fearing domination by Brussels, but it can only dismay those who hope that Europe can become a relevant global actor.

Inequality at the Top: Why Should We Care?
Richard V. Reeves (Brookings) Sep 16, 2014
What happens when the poor are keeping up with the majority, but the majority are falling behind the elite?

Fighting Inequality in the New Gilded Age
K. Sabeel Rahman (Boston Review) Sep 16, 2014
Campaign finance reform won't solve the problem. American citizens need a meaningful role in governing.

The Truth About Taxes Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Matt Mossman (FA) Sep 16, 2014
How to close the loopholes on multinationals.

EU trade deals with developing nations: Missed opportunities
Jaime de Melo and Julie Regolo (VoxEU) Sep 16, 2014
The EU is about to extend economic partnership agreements signed in 2007 with countries of the Africa, Caribbean and Pacific region. Reflecting on the implementation difficulties associated with previous agreements and the minimal engagements in the upcoming ones, this column argues that these partnerships will fall short. No further integration of African economies will come out of them. Economic Partnership Agreements will have been a sideshow in the EU’s trade policy.

The Last Mile in Ending Extreme Poverty
Laurence Chandy and Homi Kharas (USAID/Brookings) Sep 16, 2014
Can extreme poverty be ended by 2030—and if so, what will it take?

Scotland needs bravery to build strong banks Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gapper (FT) Sep 17, 2014
Experience has taught the country that the mechanisms that it will need as an independent entity it needs will take courage and a lot of time.

Scots’ choice: independence or sterling Financial Times Subscription Required
Krishna Guha (FT) Sep 17, 2014
Scots wants full independence, financial stability and deep economic integration with the UK. They can have any two but not all three.

Economic soufflé at risk of implosion Financial Times Subscription Required
Jay Pelosky (FT) Sep 17, 2014
While the production side of the US economy appears robust, the same cannot be said for the rest of the world, which lacks an economic locomotive.

Scotland Decides: Smaller Nations in a Big World
Globalist Sep 17, 2014
How will an independent Scotland compare to other small nations?

High-Frequency Firm Found Clever Way to Save on Capital
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Sep 17, 2014
By just rewriting the net capital rules, I mean. They had a better system, so they used it. The SEC did not approve.

The Economics of Violence
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Sep 17, 2014
Given the brutal conflicts in Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere that are constantly in the news, many people would probably say that war is the largest source of violence in the world. But that turns out to be spectacularly wrong.

The System is Working
Daniel W. Drezner (Project Syndicate) Sep 17, 2014
As the G-20 meeting of finance ministers starts in Cairns, Australia, the Legion of Gloom is at it again, claiming that the system of global governance structures ranging from the WTO and the G-20 to the major central banks is in desperate need of repair. In fact, the global economic order has worked remarkably well since 2008.

Revamping Europe’s Tattered Social Contract
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Sep 17, 2014
Europe's economy needs deep supply-side reforms, so that fiscal stimulus translates into sustainable long-term growth, not just temporary spurts and further increases in countries’ debt ratios. But too many call for structural reforms without specifying their content or considering the social, historical, and political context.

India’s Soft Power Advantage
Kadira Pethiyagoda (Diplomat) Sep 17, 2014
Deeply entrenched factors make India a uniquely attractive great-power partner.

Prometheus unbound? The modest benefits of entry deregulation in Portugal
Lee Branstetter, Francesco Lima, Lowell Taylor and Ana Venâncio (VoxEU) Sep 17, 2014
Business groups and their political allies advocate deregulation as a pathway to faster growth, pointing to a strong negative relationship between regulatory barriers to entry and economic performance. This column argues that cross-sectional estimates have oversold the strength of this relationship and its implications for policy. Quasi-experimental evidence from a Portuguese policy reform shows that deregulation matters, but its impact is limited – it is not the panacea that pundits proclaim it to be.

Entry and exit in OTC derivatives markets
Andy Atkeson, Andrea Eisfeldt and Pierre-Olivier Weill (VoxEU) Sep 17, 2014
Entry and trading in over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets have received considerable attention. However, many critical questions remain unaddressed. This column describes a formal study of banks’ incentives to enter and trade in OTC derivatives markets. In equilibrium, only large banks enter to become dealers, and middle-sized banks only enter as customers. Care should be given not to reduce rents so much when dealer participation costs are high.

Doubling Down on Democracy
Michael Ignatieff (Atlantic) Sep 17, 2014
Francis Fukuyama is still bullish on where history is headed, but Americans should worry: republics can decay.

Made in America, Again
James Fallows (Atlantic) Sep 17, 2014
Three big trends that could shape the future of high-tech manufacturing—and the middle class.

Scotland’s Independence Vote Shows a Global Crisis of the Elites New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Sep 18, 2014
A push for independence is driven by a discontent with the ruling class that applies to varying degrees in the United States and, especially, the eurozone.

Pay pressure Financial Times Subscription Required
Chris Giles, Sarah O’Connor, Claire Jones and Ben McLannahan (FT) Sep 18, 2014
Rich countries have lost the knack of improving middle class living standards. The Financial Times polled economists from across the political spectrum for their ideas to jump-start wage growth.

Emerging markets brace for a bumpy ride Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Sep 18, 2014
The increasing role of asset managers is a striking – and risky – change in the credit ecosystem.

Negative interest rates far from absurd Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Sep 18, 2014
The need for action against eurozone deflation threats has forced out the boundaries of financial economics.

The Next Stage of Abenomics Is Coming Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Shinzo Abe (WSJ) Sep 18, 2014
Make no mistake, Japan will emerge from economic contraction and carry out needed structural reforms.

EU, Ukraine Parliaments Ratify Trade Deal
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 30 Sep 18, 2014
The European and Ukrainian parliaments ratified their bilateral trade deal on Tuesday. The landmark votes, which were conducted simultaneously in Strasbourg and Kiev and streamed through a joint video link, came following a turbulent year that saw Western ties with Russia fall to their lowest point in decades amid an outbreak of violence in Ukraine.

Azevêdo Warns WTO Members of "Precarious" Situation as TFA, Food Stockholding Talks Resume
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 30 Sep 18, 2014
A resolution to the deadlock over whether to link the implementation of the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) to finding a permanent solution on public food stockholding is still "far from evident," Director-General Roberto Azevêdo told ambassadors in Geneva on Monday afternoon.

India Reports Farm Subsidies Beneath Current WTO Ceilings
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 30 Sep 18, 2014
India has reported that its trade-distorting support consistently fell below WTO ceilings, or was exempt from these limits, according to new figures covering a seven-year period up to 2010-11.

UN Members Weigh Post-2015 Development Agenda Progress
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 30 Sep 18, 2014
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged UN members last Thursday to make a final push to achieve the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by their 2015 target date, and to simultaneously work toward building a development roadmap for the years ahead.

The Fed's Risky Bet on Growth
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 18, 2014
The Fed is making a risky bet that Congress and companies will do their part to get the economy out of the doldrums.

ECB Throws a Party, Nobody Shows Up
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 18, 2014
By introducing liquidity programs he knows are doomed to fail, Mario Draghi is slowly seducing the Bundesbank into sanctioning quantitative easing.

In Praise of China’s New Normal
Yao Yang (Project Syndicate) Sep 18, 2014
China’s economy is, at long last, undergoing a rebalancing, with growth rates having declined from more than 10% before 2008 to roughly 7.5% today. If this is China’s "new normal," it would still be the envy of the rest of the world.

What Water’s Worth
Asit K. Biswas and Ahmet C. Bozer (Project Syndicate) Sep 18, 2014
Nearly 200 years ago, Lord Byron wrote, “Till taught by pain, men really know not what good water’s worth.” Humanity still has not fully grasped water’s value, but the impending water crisis is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore – especially for those who are already feeling its effects.

Great Cities and Ghost Towns
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Sep 18, 2014
Many observers tend to regard the rise of unoccupied modern “ghost towns,” funded through risk-laden local-government financing vehicles (LGFVs), as symptoms of China’s coming collapse. But this view underestimates the inevitability – indeed, the necessity – of such challenges on the path to development.

Piketty’s Missing Rentiers
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Sep 18, 2014
Thomas Piketty predicts that interest rates will rise substantially above the growth rate, capital will accumulate, and the rich will get richer through inheritance and capital income, rather than through outlandish salaries and stock options. But unearned income is not what is driving the current rise in inequality.

Using happiness data in policy making
Angus Deaton (OECD Insights) Sep 18, 2014
The happiness revolution is in full swing. Country statistical offices are beginning to collect data on wellbeing, the OECD has prepared a manual on how best to do it, and politicians are promising to focus, not just on economic growth and better material living standards, but on the much wider range of things that are important to people. This broadening of policy is much to be welcomed.

India's Factory Future
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Sep 18, 2014
India does need to develop a manufacturing sector like China's, but it doesn't have to follow China's model.

Deep roots matter for prosperity, but so do current policies
Mercedes Delgado, Christian Ketels, Michael Porter and Scott Stern (VoxEU) Sep 18, 2014
There is a consensus among economists that ‘deep roots’ – geography, natural endowments, and institutions – are important determinants of prosperity differences across countries. This column argues that deep roots matter, but they are neither the whole story nor an excuse for political inaction today. Current policies are important – especially the broad range of policies that shape the business environment and the sophistication of companies – and they are affected but not determined by the past.

Flying High Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Jim Krane (FA) Sep 18, 2014
The improbable rise of the gulf airlines.

To Save the Planet, Don't Plant Trees New York Times Subscription Required
Nadine Unger (NYT) Sep 19, 2014
Reforestation might seem like a simple solution to climate change, but the science shows it could make global warming worse.

One Big Unhappy Economy New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Sep 19, 2014
Global growth that is “job-rich and inclusive” is possible in theory; politically, not so much.

Great Britain Sticks Together—Heading Where? Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Quentin Letts (WSJ) Sep 19, 2014
So that's the end of the Salmond run. Cameron still has a long way to go.

The Scottish Vote and Europe’s Future
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Sep 19, 2014
Scotland votes for more home rule within the UK, not independence.

The UK’s Problems Have Just Begun
Denis MacShane (Globalist) Sep 19, 2014
Far from settling everything, the Scottish vote has opened everything up.

Who Is the World's Most Important Central Banker?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 19, 2014
As the Fed tapers, the most important central banker in the world may no longer be America's, but China's.

Gaelic Lessons for the Rest of Europe
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 19, 2014
Valuable lessons abound in the aftermath of the Scottish referendum on independence, both for regions that would secede and for the nations or institutions that would prefer to maintain a status quo.

Small Countries’ Big Successes
Michael O’Sullivan and Stefano Natella (Project Syndicate) Sep 19, 2014
Roughly 75% of today’s small countries were formed in the last 70 years, mostly as a result of broader democratic transitions and in tandem with trade growth and globalization. Their successes and failures are more germane to current discussions than, say, the fiscal implications of Scottish independence.

Europe’s Bargain
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Sep 19, 2014
Eurozone member countries should implement fiscal and structural reforms in exchange for short-run relaxation of fiscal constraints – not to increase liabilities, but to focus on growth-oriented investments to jump-start sustained recovery. If they do, private investors would take note, accelerating the recovery process.

Social norms and the enforcement of laws
Daron Acemoglu and Matthew O. Jackson (VoxEU) Sep 19, 2014
Social norms shape interactions but can be in conflict with new laws, often making such laws ineffective. This column presents new research on the interplay of laws and norms. High law-breaking induces less private cooperation, increasing the law-breaking further. For a successful change in behaviour, gradual imposition of new laws is recommended. An important aspect is that these new laws should not be in a strong conflict with the existing norms.

In Scotland and Beyond, a Crisis of Faith in the Global Elite New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Sep 20, 2014
The independence movement in Scotland was another sign of widespread dissatisfaction with an established order that has failed to deliver.

Five Lessons Learned from the Scottish Referendum
Ryan McMaken (Mises Daily) Sep 20, 2014
Government authorities in the UK have declared that the “Yes” campaign for secession has failed by a margin of approximately 55 percent to 45 percent. Yet, even without a majority vote for secession, the campaign for separation from the United Kingdom has already provided numerous insights into the future of secession movements and those who defend the status quo.

Systemic risk in Europe
Robert Engle, Eric Jondeau and Michael Rockinger (VoxEU) Sep 20, 2014
With the recent Global Crisis, the interest in systemic risk and the interconnection between financial institutions has increased. This column investigates the case of European financial firms, where several factors can jeopardise a firm’s financial health. Using data since 2000 to evaluate the firms’ systemic risk, the authors find that for certain countries, the cost to rescue the riskiest domestic banks is too high. They might be considered too big to be saved.

Finance at the speed of light
Marius Zoican (VoxEU) Sep 20, 2014
Technological advances in equity markets entered the spotlight following the Flash Crash of May 2010. This column analyses the advantages and disadvantages of algorithmic and high-frequency trading. Ever-faster exchanges do not always improve liquidity. Following a speed upgrade in the Nordic equity markets, effective spreads posted by high-frequency traders increased by 32%.

Italy debt is a problem for us all Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Sep 21, 2014
We need a lot of extreme and co-ordinated policy action to make it possible for Italy to grow, service debt and ultimately stay in the eurozone.

‘Emerging Africa’, by Kingsley Chiedu Moghalu Financial Times Subscription Required
Katrina Manson (FT) Sep 21, 2014
This homegrown guide to an African future offers a vision for the continent’s development that sheds several clichés.

Narendra Modi tackles India Licence Raj Financial Times Subscription Required
Amy Kazmin (FT) Sep 21, 2014
Analysts say making life easier for companies is a logical first step towards attracting more investment to manufacturing industry.

The West's Bruised Confidence in Capitalism
Donald Baer (WSJ) Sep 21, 2014
A new global survey finds that only 36% of Americans see corporations as a source of 'hope.' In China it's 84%.

Why is Thomas Piketty's 700-page book a bestseller?
Heidi Moore (Guardian) Sep 21, 2014
Thomas Piketty is a French economist whose Capital in the Twenty-First Century has swept American discourse. Four experts – Brad DeLong, Tyler Cowen, Stephanie Kelton and Emanuel Derman – take on why that is

The strange revival of nationalism Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Sep 22, 2014
In a borderless world of bits and bytes the traditional concerns of nations looked anachronistic but politicians and voters seem unaware.

China’s leadership needs entrepreneurs Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 22, 2014
Entrepreneurs such as Alibaba’s Jack Ma are transforming the economic landscape of China, generating jobs and making the country a far fairer place in the process.

How Ireland’s Nama moved centre stage Financial Times Subscription Required
Vincent Boland (FT) Sep 22, 2014
The bad bank is arguably the country’s most important financial institution and is looming large in its latest drama.

Behind the Fed's Dovish Turn on Rates Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) Sep 22, 2014
After sending hawkish signals in July, the Federal Open Market Committee has softened its tone.

High Hopes for Russia Are Fading on Wall St. New York Times Subscription Required
Andrew Ross Sorkin (NYT) Sep 22, 2014
Russia, which was supposed to be a growth market for Wall Street, is turning out to be a potential financial and political nightmare amid the Ukraine situation and America’s sanctions.

How to Fix Our Financial Early-Warning System
Bloomberg View Sep 22, 2014
Markets are again showing signs of excess. Regulators need to know where the risks are concentrated.

China’s Measured Embrace of India
Minghao Zhao (Project Syndicate) Sep 22, 2014
Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to India strongly suggests that China is determined to inhibit the bilateral rivalry from intensifying. But, despite Xi’s investment pledges, it is far from certain that Asia’s two giants can bridge the differences that continue to burden the bilateral relationship.

Burning Down the House
Donald Kaberuka (Project Syndicate) Sep 22, 2014
World leaders must act on all global challenges when they recognize them. Preventing bank failures and stopping terrorist attacks are important goals; unless we get serious about addressing climate change, we are likely to have more of both.

Irrational Exuberance Down Under
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 22, 2014
Housing is one of the three main pillars of the Australian economy. Unfortunately, all three are dangerously vulnerable to a Chinese slowdown.

Mr Draghi, is it really that difficult to see?
Robin Fransman (Pieria) Sep 22, 2014
Four years into the Euro-crisis, and the true faults of the Eurozone are finally sinking in. Except one.

Are you sure your benchmark index is doing the job you think it is?
Kevin Murphy (Pieria) Sep 22, 2014
Investors should handle market indices with care and certainly not take them at face value.

Micro evidence on Chinese outward direct investment
Heiwai Tang and Wenjie Chen (VoxEU) Sep 22, 2014
Using a new, unique, and comprehensive data set that covers close to 19,000 Chinese ODI deals from 1998 to 2011, we find that in contrast to the common perception, over half of the ODI deals are in service sectors, with many of them appearing to be related to export promotion. Ex ante larger, more productive, and more export-intensive firms are more likely to start investing abroad. Ex post, ODI appears to enhance firm performance (i.e., total factor productivity, employment, export intensity, and product innovation). Empirical analysis based on firms’ trade transaction data shows a significantly positive effect of ODI on firms’ trade performance, but little technology transfer.

Taxes: vague benefits create temptations Financial Times Subscription Required
Alison Smith (FT) Sep 23, 2014
Tougher regulations are needed to sweep away the weak accountancy rules and hubris that could be at the heart of the supermarket group’s overstatement.

The epidemic the world could have stopped Financial Times Subscription Required
Anjana Ahuja (FT) Sep 23, 2014
Surviving other globe-threatening ailments might be down to luck not competence.

Clean growth is a safe bet Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 23, 2014
With the right support from governments, a low-carbon future need not be one of perpetual misery.

Commodities: Cereal excess Financial Times Subscription Required
Gregory Meyer (FT) Sep 23, 2014
Bumper harvests have sent global grain supplies soaring, resulting in lower incomes for farmers and an eventual slowing of food price inflation.

Ten Lessons from the Scottish Referendum
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Sep 23, 2014
The 55 percent majority that rejected Scottish independence was perhaps not so lopsided as to banish all Scottish nationalist dreams of another vote someday. But it was more decisive than many opinion polls had predicted. At least 10 lessons can be drawn from the process.

Biggest Losses Start With Brilliance
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Sep 23, 2014
When the Fed bailed out the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management in 1998, it set the precedent for the Wall Street bailout almost 10 years later.

The G-20's Triumph and Tragedy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 23, 2014
The G-20 knows what the global economy needs. Too bad it can't do it.

Rebooting Globalization
Martina Larkin (Project Syndicate) Sep 23, 2014
For all of its undeniable benefits, globalization has spawned problems of governance and management that have exposed the inadequacy of national governments and international institutions. And fragile institutions have given rise to a political backlash and the danger of disaster on many fronts.

Germany’s Economic Mirage
Philippe Legrain (Project Syndicate) Sep 23, 2014
For 60 years, successive German governments sought a more European Germany; but now, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s administration wants to reshape Europe's economies in Germany’s image. This would be a disaster: Far from being Europe’s most successful economy – as German officials boast – Germany’s economy is dysfunctional.

Silk Road Diplomacy - Twists, Turns and Distorted History
Tansen Sen (YaleGlobal) Sep 23, 2014
China harkens the Silk Road in foreign policy initiatives, but the history is less benign.

The Alibaba moment
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Sep 24, 2014
We will see more Chinese firms venturing onto the world stage.

Corruption is messy for business in Asia Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Sep 24, 2014
Managers have to figure out how to avoid paying bribes – or how to pay without being caught.

Real reforms needed to sustain EM growth Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Zweifel (FT) Sep 24, 2014
When demand is strong, reforms are quietly shelved.

Leaders must opt to save the Earth Financial Times Subscription Required
Jeffrey Sachs (FT) Sep 24, 2014
There is a narrow path to climate safety, which requires a well-funded effort to develop low-carbon technologies.

The epidemic the world could have stopped Financial Times Subscription Required
Anjana Ahuja (FT) Sep 24, 2014
Surviving other globe-threatening ailments might be down to luck not competence

Property: Land of opportunity Financial Times Subscription Required
Robin Harding (FT) Sep 24, 2014
To its advocates, land value tax has almost magical powers. Has its moment finally come?

The World’s Largest Subprime Debtor: The US Government
David Howden (Mises Daily) Sep 24, 2014
Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection six years ago this month. The event has become famous as the spark that ignited the global financial crisis. Since that date, millions have lost their jobs and livelihoods, and countless others have seen their futures evaporate before their eyes, sometimes permanently.

The Right Direction for Scotland
Avinash D. Persaud (Livemint/PIIE) Sep 24, 2014
If 200,000 voters, or 5 percent of the electorate, had switched their minds and voted "yes" rather than "no," the United Kingdom would have been no more after the Scottish referendum on September 18, 2014. The long dismantling of the British Empire would be at an end, a process that began with Indian Independence in 1947. To add irony, the Scots often played pivotal roles in the establishment and running of that Empire on which, for a while, the sun never set. Not just the residents of Kolkata will know of Duff College and the Roxburgh Building.

Japan's Debt Trap
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Sep 24, 2014
Japan has more debt than any developed nation and resolving it poses from unwelcome choices.

Xi Jinping’s Pure Party
George Magnus (Project Syndicate) Sep 24, 2014
While the Chinese authorities' efforts to root out corruption within the Communist Party are a welcome development, the Party itself is part of the problem. The true test of change will be whether the Party is prepared to subordinate itself to new, inclusive institutional arrangements that are conducive to comprehensive economic reform.

“Whatever It Takes” in Ukraine
Jorge Mariscal and Nick Rice (Project Syndicate) Sep 24, 2014
Europe’s efforts to revive its economy and confront the crisis in Ukraine may seem to be two entirely separate challenges. But policymakers, struggling to contain Russia and find an acceptable long-term settlement on Europe's eastern borders, could learn a lot from the way ECB President Mario Draghi has managed to stabilize the eurozone.

Statement of the participants in the Third EU-Asia Rountable
Bernard Hoekman and Christopher Findlay (VoxEU) Sep 24, 2014
The evolution of the world trading system no longer supports the delivery of opportunities that follow from innovations in international business. This column is a statement by participants at a roundtable held in the EU Centre for Global Affairs, University of Adelaide, on 22 August 2014, which offers suggestions to improve global trade governance. Given that Australia is hosting the G20 Summit in November, the roundtable focused on actions that the G20 should consider to help attain its objective of boosting global growth performance.

Latin America: The archetypal financial crisis
Tom Streithorst (Pieria) Sep 24, 2014
The Latin American debt crisis remains the best teaching tool we have to explain the workings of the modern financial system.

The other half
Claire Melamed (Aeon) Sep 24, 2014
To end inequality, we must realise that it isn’t about the rich, it’s about the poor. And we know almost nothing about them

Manufacturing’s clean-up: Technology not offshoring
Arik Levinson (VoxEU) Sep 24, 2014
Pollution emitted by manufacturers has been falling in Europe and the US. A concern with this clean-up is that developed countries have been offshoring the production of pollution-intensive parts and products. This column presents evidence refuting this concern. Using a new approach, the author calculates that almost all of the clean-up in US manufacturing can be explained by technological changes.

Fast trains and firm performance: New Japanese evidence
Andrew B. Bernard, Andreas Moxnes and Yukiko Umeno Saito (VoxEU) Sep 24, 2014
Investment in high-speed rail accounts for billions in investment worldwide, but little research has been done on its effect on firm performance. This column introduces a model of firm supply networks, and presents evidence from the opening of an extension to the Shinkansen railway in Japan. The authors show that input-intensive industries benefit relatively more. In addition, their model provides a microfoundation for differential productivity across regions.

G20 credibility depends on its trade agenda: Statement of the participants in the Third EU-Asia Rountable
Bernard Hoekman & Christopher Findlay (VoxEU) Sep 24, 2014
The evolution of the world trading system no longer supports the delivery of opportunities that follow from innovations in international business. This column is a statement by participants at a roundtable held in the EU Centre for Global Affairs, University of Adelaide, on 22 August 2014, which offers suggestions to improve global trade governance. Given that Australia is hosting the G20 Summit in November, the roundtable focused on actions that the G20 should consider to help attain its objective of boosting global growth performance.

Closed Door Policy Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Joshua Eisenman (FA) Sep 24, 2014
How China's reforms are pushing away foreign business.

Fairer markets that will serve us all Financial Times Subscription Required
Minouche Shafik (FA) Sep 25, 2014
A new review aims to monitor the heart of the financial system.

Robots are our saviours, not the enemy Financial Times Subscription Required
Peter Thiel (FT) Sep 25, 2014
The alternative is a world in which wages fall and prices rise

Falling commodities flash global warning Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Sep 25, 2014
Price slide reveals mounting concern about China.

Russia: Putin’s power politics Financial Times Subscription Required
Courtney Weaver (FT) Sep 25, 2014
The arrest of Yevtushenkov has rattled oligarchs who thought close ties to the Kremlin would keep them safe.

The Good Order New York Times Subscription Required
David Brooks (NYT) Sep , 2014
The arduous work of imposing order is critical to success in any realm, from the international state system to one's own mind.

An Invitation to 'Make in India' Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Narendra Modi (WSJ) Sep 25, 2014
With 800 million people under age 35, we are a nation ready for rapid, responsible economic development.

World Leaders Outline Plans to Tackle Climate Change
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 31 Sep 25, 2014
Tuesday's much-anticipated UN climate summit in New York saw 125 heads of state take the opportunity to highlight their national climate efforts, while unveiling a raft of new financial commitments in this area.

EU, East Africa Sign Trade Deal, Bringing EPA Process Near Close
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 31 Sep 25, 2014
The five members of the East African Community (EAC) – Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda – signed the draft version of their Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU on 20 September. With Brussels having already concluded two other such agreements involving African country blocs in July, this latest deal brings to a close a long negotiation process between the main African regional economic communities and Europe.

WTO Chief Warns of Potential "Freezing Effect" as TFA, Food Stockholding Deadlock Persists
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 31 Sep 25, 2014
Failing to resolve the impasse over whether to link implementation of the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) with finding a permanent solution on public food stockholding could pose grave consequences for the global trade body, including for efforts to resolve the Doha Round trade talks, Director-General Roberto Azevêdo said this week.

WIPO Assemblies Aim to Advance Norm-Setting, Amid Governance Questions
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 31 Sep 25, 2014
The World Intellectual Property Organization's (WIPO) annual high-level meetings kicked off on Monday in Geneva, Switzerland, with this year's Assemblies set to tackle a broad range of issues facing the 187-member organisation, particularly in the area of norm-setting.

Why S&P’s Latest Call on Germany Misses the Mark
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Sep 25, 2014
Why the emergence of some right-wing populists will not paralyze Germany’s pro-euro policies.

The Atlantic Civilization and Its Enemies
Ludger Kuhnhardt (Globalist) Sep 25, 2014
Squeezed between a self-destructive Russia and Arab world, Western nations need to focus on their roots.

Grave New World
Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) Sep 25, 2014
The world is changing more profoundly and rapidly than ever before. Maintaining global stability will demand renewed multilateral institutions in which countries defend their principles while respecting those of others – and never lose sight of their shared interests and objectives.

Disciplining the Sharing Economy
Ayesha Khanna and Parag Khanna (Project Syndicate) Sep 25, 2014
The increasing ability of people to exchange goods, services, and labor directly, via online platforms, is transforming how modern economies operate. But to ensure that the rise of the “sharing economy” works efficiently and improves conditions for all parties, some regulation is needed.

Can Modi Make It Rain?
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Sep 25, 2014
Unlike his other recent bilateral meetings, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi isn't likely to return from the U.S. with billion-dollar investment deals. And it's India's own fault.

Outsourcing and the shift from manufacturing to services
Giuseppe Berlingieri (VoxEU) Sep 25, 2014
Advanced nations are shedding manufacturing jobs and gaining service jobs – a trend that has been in place for decades. Some of the shift, however, is a reclassification effect. Corporate outsourcing of tasks like marketing means workers doing the same task as before now show up as working for a firm in the service sector. Using US data from the past 60 years, this column shows that the evolution of the input-output structure – which is mostly due to professional and business services outsourcing – accounts for 36% of the increase in services and 25% of the fall in manufacturing.

What macroeconomic policies for the Eurozone?
Francesco Giavazzi & Guido Tabellini (VoxEU) Sep 25, 2014
In a recent column, the authors suggested coordinating monetary and fiscal expansions in the Eurozone through a money-financed temporary tax cut. The effectiveness of their proposal, however, has been questioned. In this column, the authors address some of the criticisms. They argue that the counter-cyclical fiscal policies adopted by the US and the UK, together with monetary easing, had a stabilising effect on output. Moral hazard due to the more lax monetary and fiscal policies is avoidable, increasing the credibility of the future spending cuts.

Losing the Race Against Ebola New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Sep 26, 2014
Two new projections show the urgent need for faster action, to prevent hundreds of thousands or even a million deaths.

Francis Fukuyama’s ‘Political Order and Political Decay’ Financial Times Subscription Required
David Runciman (FT) Sep 26, 2014
The triumph of liberal freedoms looks far from assured in this grand survey of political change since the Industrial Revolution – and the US is no exception.

Europe’s Austerity Zombies
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Sep 26, 2014
“If the facts don’t fit the theory, change the theory,” goes the old adage. But too often it is easier to keep the theory and change the facts – or so German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other pro-austerity European leaders appear to believe.

Paying for Productivity
Laura Tyson (Project Syndicate) Sep 26, 2014
One of the US economy's defining – and disheartening – trends over the last 40 years has been real-wage stagnation for most workers. America’s long-run living standards and economic competitiveness depend not just on productivity growth, but also on how that growth is shared.

Europe's Rebalancing Act
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Sep 26, 2014
Capital flows suggest Europeans are regaining faith in their common currency.

Levine on Wall Street: Bank Examiners and Argentine Evasions
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Sep 26, 2014
You got some regulatory capture, some contempt of court, some empire-building, some regulatory turf battles, and a little bit of regulatory arbitrage, it's all here really

The Misguided Rush to Raise Rates
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 26, 2014
These are still not normal economic times, and the philosophical temptation to imagine some normal cost-of-money environment that central banks should rushing toward is a falsehood.

Falling Out of Love With Gold
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 26, 2014
Gold may be losing favor among investors, but it still has a place in any investment portfolio.

Azerbaijan Doesn't Want To Be Western Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Thomas de Waal (FA) Oct 26, 2014
The rhetoric and reality of Baku's grand strategy.

Crash Course: Preventing the Next Financial Crisis
Jonathan Kirshner (Boston Review) Sep 26, 2014
If you only read one book on the 2008 financial crisis, it should be Martin Wolf's.

Tax Carbon Consumption: Europe’s Best Environmental Strategy
Phillippe Legrain (Globalist) Sep 27, 2014
What Europe needs to do on climate change – and how.

The Entrepreneurial State and the Innovation Economy Recommended!
Avinash D. Persaud (PIIE) Sep 27, 2014
Most technological advances that power entrepreneurial ventures do not bubble up on their own; they are given a helping hand by the state. And the course of innovation and technology is not driven by random discoveries. It is defined by our imagination. The state has a central, visible role to play in that by setting goals. It can use its convening power to help decide on the course society should take and the goals that take us there. It can help lead us there by using independently awarded funding that not only enables this future but actually makes it a reality.

Mismeasuring long-run growth
Leandro Prados de la Escosura (VoxEU) Sep 27, 2014
As demonstrated by the dramatic upward revision of Nigeria’s GDP for 2013, the choice of a benchmark year matters when computing GDP statistics. This column explains how the replacement of benchmark years creates an inconsistency between new and old national accounts series, and how different ways of resolving this inconsistency yield very different estimates of historical GDP levels and growth rates. When used to evaluate the relative historical performance of Spain and France, the interpolation procedure for splicing national accounts produces more plausible results than the conventional ‘retropolation’ approach.

An ASEAN Economic Community by 2015?
Jayant Menon (VoxEU) Sep 27, 2014
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is the most successful regional grouping in the developing would. Its latest project is to establish an ASEAN Economic Community by 31 December 2015, consisting of economic, political-security, and social cultural components. This column argues that giving commitments more teeth is the key challenge to be overcome in realising the ASEAN Economic Community if it is to be more than a political exercise in solidarity.

Bill Gross missed the big shift Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Sep 28, 2014
Now it is governments that are intimidating – or at least wrongfooting – the bond gurus.

Germany’s eurosceptics plant turmoil Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Sep 28, 2014
The AfD only needs to create doubt to upset economic equilibrium.

Mars mission also benefits India’s poor Financial Times Subscription Required
Gurcharan Das (FT) Sep 28, 2014
Nation-building entails the memory of heroic achievements such as this.

A looser grip for Beijing’s heavy hand Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 28, 2014
In ‘Markets Over Mao’, Nicholas Lardy assesses the rise of private business in China.

Capital Markets Ride to the Third World Rescue Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Robert Greifeld (WSJ) Sep 28, 2014
In 2010 Sri Lanka emerged from decades of civil war in bad shape. Two years later, it posted 6.4% growth.

Let’s export oil
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Sep 28, 2014
There are benefits to letting U.S. producers sell abroad.

The Irrationality of Independence
Angel Ubide (PIIE/El Pais) Sep 28, 2014
We were lucky. In the Scottish independence referendum a few weeks ago, rationality prevailed. The psychology of the process of complex decision making shows that humans are often unable to properly assess the risks they face. When the variables at stake are many and complex, the human brain is not able to convey a clear and concise verdict, and sometimes decisions are guided by intuition and feeling, often in an inefficient and irrational manner, accepting excessive risks.

Ebola Is Going Global. Or Not.
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2014
How bad will the Ebola epidemic get? The truth is that nobody knows.

The rise of China and the future of US manufacturing
Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson and Brendan Price (VoxEU) Sep 28, 2014
Manufacturing in the US has rebounded after the Great Recession, but employment levels have not recovered from their steep decline in the decade before the recession. This column examines to what extent the sector’s fall is a result of the rise of China. The authors estimate direct effects of import competition from China, as well as labour market and buyer-seller indirect effects that operate at the local level. China’s impact has been strong, and employment in US manufacturing is unlikely to recover.

Revisiting the Lehman Brothers Bailout That Never Was New York Times Subscription Required
James B. Stewart and Peter Eavis (NYT) Sep 29, 2014
New accounts of events in 2008 as the New York Fed assessed the bank's eligibility for rescue from bankruptcy have cast the firm's collapse in a new light.

Merkel should stop Draghi’s meddling Financial Times Subscription Required
Hans-Werner Sinn (FT) Sep 29, 2014
The ECB is overstepping its mandate with anti-deflationary measures.

Time to shake up housing finance Financial Times Subscription Required
Pauline Skypala (FT) Sep 29, 2014
Focus of structural reform should extend beyond banking.

Fees are a scourge on pension funds Financial Times Subscription Required
Charles Goodhart (FT) Sep 29, 2014
Data show high fees are biggest contributor to poor performance.

The Japanese Deflation Myth and the Yen’s Slump
Brendan Brown (Mises Daily) Sep 29, 2014
The slide of the yen since late summer has brought it to a level some 40 percent lower against the euro and US dollar than just two years go. Yet still Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda warn that they have not won the battle against deflation. That caution is absurd — all the more so in view of the fact that there was no deflation in the first place.

Draghi Is Forced to Match Words With Action
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 29, 2014
Promises alone won't fix Europe's economy.

The Expansion of Chinese Railways in Africa Are Picking Up Steam
Yun Sun (Brookings) Sep 29, 2014
Construction on a $3.8 billion railway will rejuvenate the existing but outdated East Africa railway system.

Golden Rule Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Alan Greenspan (FA) Sep 29, 2014
Why Beijing is buying.

A flexible, scaleable approach to the international patent 'name game'
Mark Huberty, Amma Serwaah and Georg Zachmann (Bruegel) Sep 29, 2014
The inventors in PATSTAT are often duplicates: the same person or company may be split into multiple entries in PATSTAT, each associated to different patents. In this paper, we address this problem with an algorithm that efficiently de-duplicates the data. It needs minimal manual input and works well even on consumer-grade computers. Comparisons between entries are not limited to their names, and thus this algorithm is an improvement over earlier ones that required extensive manual work or overly cautious clean-up of the names.

Two Views of Finance
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2014
The International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings will be held on October 11-12 in Washington DC, and the world’s financial sector is a central item on the agenda. That will make for an interesting meeting, because two diametrically opposed views of the global financial system will face off against each other.

The Rise of the Robots
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2014
The venture capitalist Peter Thiel recently joined the long-running debate on the economic implications of advanced robotic and computing technologies, asserting that they will save us from a future of high prices and low wages. Does his argument stand up to scrutiny?

Deleveraging, What Deleveraging? The 16th Geneva Report on the World Economy
Luigi Buttiglione, Philip Lane, Lucrezia Reichlin and Vincent Reinhart (VoxEU) Sep 29, 2014
The world has not yet begun to deleverage its crisis-linked borrowing. Global debt-to-GDP is breaking new highs in ways that hinder recovery in mature economies and threaten new crisis in emerging nations – especially China. The latest Geneva Report on the World Economy argues that the policy path to less volatile debt dynamics is a narrow one, and it is already clear that developed economies must expect prolonged low growth or another crisis along the way.

Inequality is such a drag on economies Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 30, 2014
Big divides in wealth and power have hollowed out republics before and could do so again.

Modi’s legacy should be sewers, not ‘smart’ cities Financial Times Subscription Required
Chandran Nair (FT) Sep 30, 2014
He should not be distracted from the unglamorous basics.

Europe needs a flexible financial market Financial Times Subscription Required
Huw van Steenis (FT) Sep 30, 2014
Europe needs to channel non-bank funding to businesses and infrastructure.

Online dialogue of first world problems Financial Times Subscription Required
Lisa Pollack (FT) Sep 30, 2014
A popular internet meme reminds us of the privileges enjoyed by many in wealthy countries.

Concern over debt of Asean companies Financial Times Subscription Required
Jeremy Grant (FT) Sep 30, 2014
S&P says 100 groups spent nearly $300bn on deals over a five-year period.

The Time Is Right for an Infrastructure Push
Abdul Abiad, David Furceri, and Petia Topalova (IMF Survey) Sep 30, 2014
In the current global environment of sub-par growth, there is a strong case for increasing public investment in countries where conditions are right.

Global Imbalances: Narrowing Flows, Widening Stocks
Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Marco Terrones, and Juan Yépez (IMF Survey) Sep 30, 2014
As global current account imbalances wane, net creditor and debtor positions have diverged further.

Solving Europe’s Credibility Problem
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Sep 30, 2014
As the eurozone debates how to escape the stagnation trap in which it finds itself, one question has become increasingly important: Can governments credibly commit to trim public spending in the future while avoiding immediate cuts? Fortunately, the answer is yes: Fiscal accommodation now does not rule out consolidation later.

Markets’ Rational Complacency
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Sep 30, 2014
A century ago, financial markets priced in a very low probability that a major conflict would occur, blissfully ignoring the risks that led to World War I until late in the summer of 1914. Back then, markets were poor at correctly pricing low-probability, high-impact tail risks; they still are.

The Fed Trap
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Sep 30, 2014
The US Federal Reserve is grappling with the disparity between its unconventional policy's success in preventing economic disaster and its failure to foster a robust recovery. Given that this disconnect has fueled financial-market excesses, the exit will be all the more problematic – especially for the market-fixated Fed.

The Third Way's Second Chance
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Sep 30, 2014
Remember Tony Blair and Bill Clinton’s Third Way? The faces and names have changed, but the idea that governments can – and should – combine social-democratic values and modern liberal economics has returned to center stage.

China’s Internet Revolution
Jiang Qiping and Jonathan Woetzel (Project Syndicate) Sep 30, 2014
As Internet adoption reaches critical mass in China, it will help to unleash the economy’s productivity-growth potential. Indeed, the Internet can help China attain its goal of developing a sustainable economic model that can lift the country to high-income status.

Why the Fed Will Go Faster
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Sep 30, 2014
The US Federal Reserve has emphasized that its monetary policy will be determined by what economic indicators show. But that means that the Fed is likely to raise the federal funds rate more rapidly and to a higher level than its recent statements imply.

China’s Grudge Match Against Multinationals
John West (Globalist) Sep 30, 2014
What motivates China’s leaders to go up against Western companies?

What Hong Kong Means for the Global Economy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 30, 2014
China's crackdown on protests may also mean a slowdown in its economic reforms -- a setback for the rest of the world, too.

No, Shanghai Can't Replace Hong Kong
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 30, 2014
Some in China seem to think that businesses fleeing Hong Kong will just move to Shanghai, which the regime is trying to build up as a financial hub. In fact, they're likely to flee to Singapore.

Germany Fights on Two Fronts to Preserve the Eurozone
Adriano Bosoni and Mark Fleming-Williams (Stratfor) Sep 30, 2014
The European Court of Justice announced Sept. 22 that hearings in the case against the European Central Bank's (ECB) bond-buying scheme known as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) will begin Oct. 14

Offshoring and skill-biased technical change
Daron Acemoglu, Gino Gancia and Fabrizio Zilibotti (VoxEU) Sep 30, 2014
Offshoring of production can have a deep impact on the wages and welfare of workers with different abilities through its effect on technological progress. This column argues that, when labour is sufficiently cheap abroad, firms have incentives to offshore low-skill tasks and invest in skill-biased technologies at home. Over time, however, offshoring raises foreign wages. This increases demand for all firms and makes innovations complementing low-skill workers more profitable. As a result, offshoring can eventually lead to higher wages for everybody and less inequality.

China must resist cheap money temptation Financial Times Subscription Required
George Magnus (FT) Oct 1, 2014
Lower borrowing costs are the last thing needed to rebalance economy.

Tech’s tax defence is washing away Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gapper (FT) Oct 1, 2014
The OECD is making faster progress towards fixing the gaps in the system.

France clings on to its magical thinking Financial Times Subscription Required
Sylvie Goulard (FT) Oct 1, 2014
The economic taboos remain – the best-off are being protected.

A feeble Brics challenge to the dollar Financial Times Subscription Required
Benn Steil (FT) Oct 1, 2014
If the club is to improve on Bretton Woods it will have to do better than this.

Modi faces big hurdles to modernise India Financial Times Subscription Required
Victor Mallet (FT) Oct 1, 2014
PM will need all his skill to achieve aims on jobs and industry.

Merkel should stop Draghi’s meddling Financial Times Subscription Required
Hans-Werner Sinn (FT) Oct 1, 2014
The ECB is overstepping its mandate with anti-deflationary measures.

Shadow Banking is Boon, Bane for Financial System
IMF Survey Oct 1, 2014
Shadow banking is both a boon and a bane for countries, and to reap its benefits, policymakers should minimize the risks it poses to the overall financial system.

Bank Compensation, Governance Need Upgrade to Make Financial System Safer
IMF Survey Oct 1, 2014
Banks with more independent boards of directors that pay executives according to long-term performance tend to incur fewer risks, according to new research from the International Monetary Fund.

On the ropes: can Argentina recover?
Silvia Pavoni (The Banker) Oct 1, 2014
A controversial US ruling against Argentina has shaken the world of sovereign debt restructuring and provided so-called vulture funds with a sharp new litigation strategy. As both multilateral organisations and private sector professionals attempt to stop a lawsuit pandemic, The Banker takes a in-depth look at the key issues.

ECB Sovereign Bond Purchases Remain Unlikely
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Oct 1, 2014
The European Central Bank (ECB) is reportedly on the cusp of another round of euro area sovereign bond purchases. Proponents of such a move say it is necessary if the ECB is to grow its balance sheet by the €750 billion to €1 trillion signaled by its president, Mario Draghi, on September 4. Yet it is probably a mistake to expect this action soon.

What's Wrong With Ignoring Inequality
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 1, 2014
Economic inequality may not be the world's biggest problem, but it isn;';t something we should ignore.

The ECB’s Leap into the Unknown
Jürgen Stark (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2014
The ECB’s decision to double down on monetary stimulus should be regarded as an act of desperation. Indeed, despite the central bank's aggressive approach, monetary policy in the absence of structural economic reform risks being ineffective.

Asia’s Invention Boom
Edward Jung (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2014
China is poised to join the US as a leading global force for innovation, with other Asian countries following closely behind. As Asian innovation comes into its own, the US and other developed countries must find ways to participate – or risk missing the opportunity of the century in a vain bid to recapture bygone supremacy.

Debeaking the Vultures
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Martin Guzman (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2014
In the midst of the ongoing dispute between Argentina and the “vulture funds” that hold its bonds, a broad consensus has emerged concerning the need for sovereign-debt restructuring mechanisms. Otherwise, US court rulings in the vultures' favor will give free rein to those who would sabotage future restructurings.

Brazil’s Cautious Voters
Jorge G. Castañeda (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2014
Brazil's presidential election has come alive as the mixed-race Marina Silva mounts a serious challenge to President Dilma Rousseff. But, despite Brazil's economic troubles, corruption scandals, and recent World Cup humiliation, Rousseff's incumbency advantage is likely to be decisive.

Pitchfork Politics Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Yascha Mounk (FA) Oct 1, 2014
The populist threat to liberal democracy.

A Good Deal Settles the Brazil Cotton Dispute
Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) Oct 2, 2014
A long-running dispute between the United States and Brazil over US cotton subsidies has at last been settled. In an announcement on October 1, the two sides disclosed that their deal has two key terms: The United States will pay Brazil $300 million immediately, for the benefit of Brazilian cotton farmers, and Brazil will drop its case against the United States at the World Trade Organization (WTO), launched in 2002 and won in 2004.

Russia debt freeze lesson for Hong Kong Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Oct 2, 2014
Markets do react to political risk, despite apparent indifference.

The hidden cost of freezing Russia out Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 2, 2014
Instead of having one major cross-border payments system there could eventually be many.

Only a weak euro can save the ECB now Financial Times Subscription Required
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (FT) Oct 2, 2014
Data point to a slowdown which now affects the core of the monetary union.

Pimco: ‘Bonds are meant to be boring’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephen Foley and Tom Braithwaite (FT) Oct 2, 2014
What Bill Gross’s exit means for the industry and the company he left behind.

Singing About Fighting Poverty, Slightly Off-Key Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
William Easterly (WSJ) Oct 2, 2014
Concerts to help the poor are fine, but too bad no one sounds a note about freedom. That's the path to prosperity.

China, trapped in transition
Fareed Zakaria (WP) Oct 2, 2014
What we are seeing in Hong Kong may be an expected, if long-delayed, crisis fueled by economic growth.

The U.S. lets trade undermine justice
Harold Meyerson (WP) Oct 2, 2014
How every major trade pact since Ronald Reagan has undermined labor and environmental protections.

The Lehman Brothers lesson
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 2, 2014
Letting crucial financial institutions fail can backfire on us all.

US, Brazil Clinch Deal Resolving Cotton Trade Row
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 32 Oct 2, 2014
Brazil and the US have reached an agreement to bring their long-running WTO dispute (DS267) over Washington's cotton subsidies to an end, officials confirmed on Wednesday.

Obama, Modi Highlight TFA Impasse Concerns, Call for "Urgent" WTO Consultations
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 32 Oct 2, 2014
US President Barack Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded their leaders' meeting in Washington on Tuesday, directing their officials to "consult urgently" with their fellow trading partners in the hopes of resolving the current WTO impasse on the implementation of the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) and the issue of public food stockholding.

EU Commission Hearings: Malmström Pledges TTIP Political Assessment By Year's End
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 32 Oct 2, 2014
If confirmed later this month as the EU's next Trade Commissioner, Cecilia Malmström will make one of her first objectives a political review of the 28-nation bloc's ongoing trade talks with the US, the Swedish politician told a meeting of the European Parliament Committee on International Trade earlier this week.

Environmental Goods Trade Talks Move Forward
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 32 Oct 2, 2014
A second round of talks towards clinching a tariff-cutting agreement on select environmental goods was held last week in Geneva, Switzerland, with sources reporting significant progress on hammering out the substance of the deal, namely on what types of products to include.

Ukraine's Old, Internal Enemy
Anders Åslund (PIIE) Oct 2, 2014
External threats to Ukraine from Russia have dominated the news for months, but as that situation starts to stabilize the country will need to confront an old, internal enemy: corruption. Transparency International ranks Ukraine 144 out of 177 countries on its corruption-perception index.

China’s Visionary Stimulus
Zhang Jun (Project Syndicate) Oct 2, 2014
China's CN¥4 trillion post-crisis stimulus has been widely criticized for leading to excessive monetary growth. But the policy also helped to expand China’s foreign trade and boost its external financial strength, thereby creating space for the current government to pursue its ambitious reform agenda.

The Lost Donkeys of Science
Abraham Loeb (Project Syndicate) Oct 2, 2014
History is full of unexpected discoveries that changed the world. Despite the obvious risks, science funders should therefore allow researchers the flexibility to pursue new, exciting insights rather than just play it safe and stick to rigid research goals.

Gloomy Outlook for Ghana Where Gold Does Not Shine Anymore
Vikram Mansharamani (YaleGlobal) Oct 2, 2014
A country’s fortunes can rise and fall quickly. Ghana was hailed just two years ago as the world’s fastest growing economy, but now struggles with currency devaluation, poor infrastructure and an entrenched bureaucracy.

New Momentum Can Help Global Economy Beat Mediocre Growth
IMF Survey Oct 2, 2014
Bolder policies can inject a new momentum into the world economy to help it overcome what has been a disappointing recovery, IMF chief Christine Lagarde says. Ahead of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, Lagarde adds that the recovery is brittle, uneven, and beset by risks.

Warning Flags in the Stock Market
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Oct 2, 2014
The stock market rally has pushed shares up to record highs since their March 2009 low. Numerous warning flags are telling us this won't last.

Europe's Wrangling Compounds Cameron Brexit Woes
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 2, 2014
A brouhaha over Britain's European Commission nominee illustrates the difficulties David Cameron faces in renegotiating membership terms of a club it has treated much like Groucho Marx might.

Making Argentina's Debt Debacle a Rarity
Ashoka Mody (Bloomberg View) Oct 2, 2014
If sovereign bonds acted more like stocks, everyone would be better off.

The Vultures of Wall Street
Saskia Sassen and Lisa Lucile Owens (Boston Review) Oct 2, 2014
Hedge funds wrest billions of dollars from governments in debt.

Our Misplaced Faith in Free Trade New York Times Subscription Required
Jeff Madrick (NYT) Oct 3, 2014
A number of countries have gotten rich since the 1970s, but not by following orthodox economic advice.

A Shaky Recovery Runs Out of Steam
Eswar Prasad, Karim Foda and Arnav Sahu (Brookings) Oct 3, 2014
New updates to a Brookings-Financial Times index for tracking the global economic recovery paints a grim picture.

China’s Inscrutable Contraction
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Oct 3, 2014
As China shifts to a more domestic-demand driven, services-oriented economy, a transition to slower trend growth is both inevitable and desirable. But the challenges are immense, and no one should take a soft landing for granted.

The New Philosophers
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Oct 3, 2014
At a recent meeting of G-20 finance ministers, US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew discussed “philosophical differences with some of our friends in Europe” before urging Europeans to do more to boost growth. His reference to philosophy gets to the heart of why Europe is finding it so difficult to escape from its current malaise.

Any developing country can undergo dynamic structural transformation, starting now
Justin Yifu Lin (OECD Insights) Oct 3, 2014
Any developing country – even those with poor infrastructure and a weak business environment – can start on a path to dynamic structural transformation and growth today. How? By facilitating technological innovation and development in industries where it has a comparative advantage.

The disappearance of routine jobs
Matias Cortes, Nir Jaimovich, Christopher J. Nekarda and Henry Siu (VoxEU) Oct 2, 2014
As routine tasks are increasingly automated, middle-wage jobs are becoming rarer. This column documents the changes in labour-market dynamics behind this polarisation, and investigates which workers are affected by it. Flows into middle-wage routine jobs are declining (rather than flows out increasing). Interestingly, routine cognitive workers – who tend to be educated women – are benefiting from this hollowing-out by moving up the occupational ladder.

Where danger lurks
Olivier Blanchard (VoxEU) Oct 3, 2014
Before the 2008 crisis, the mainstream worldview among US macroeconomists was that economic fluctuations were regular and essentially self-correcting. In this column, IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard explains how this benign view of fluctuations took hold in the profession, and what lessons have been learned since the crisis. He argues that macroeconomic policy should aim to keep the economy away from ‘dark corners’, where it can malfunction badly.

Have markets misunderstood Markets the German Court’s decision on OMT?
Helmut Siekmann and Volker Wieland (VoxEU) Oct 3, 2014
In February 2014, the German Federal Constitutional Court declared the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme to be inconsistent with EU law. However, this did not have a negative impact on the OMT and sovereign risk premia continued to decline. This column argues that the benign response of financial markets may be due to an expectation of a likely compromise between the European and German Courts.

The world economy: Wealth without workers, workers without wealth Economist Subscription Required
Economist Oct 4, 2014
The digital revolution is bringing sweeping change to labour markets in both rich and poor worlds.

Biocultural origins of human capital and growth
Oded Galor and Marc Klemp (VoxEU) Oct 4, 2014
The substitution from child quantity to quality has been credited for mankind’s escape from the Malthusian trap and the advent of sustained economic growth. This column argues that biocultural preferences for quality faced positive selection pressure in the pre-growth era, presenting evidence from the founding population of Quebec. Individuals with moderate levels of fecundity had fewer children than those with high fecundity, but produced more descendants in the long run because their children enjoyed higher reproductive success.

Economists Are Blind to the Limits of Growth
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Oct 5, 2014
Economists ignore a crucial constraint on human prosperity: energy.

The new Washington consensus - time to fight rising inequality
Larry Elliot (Guardian) Oct 5, 2014
The year 2014 is when the fight against inequality went mainstream but talk is one thing, action another

Europe’s recovery is in danger of being a dream Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Oct 5, 2014
A euro devaluation would have to be extreme to have a big impact on, say, Italian exporters.

Trade rules must urgently play catch-up Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Oct 5, 2014
WTO battles are fought using texts last updated in 1994.

Monetary policy: An unconventional tool Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 5, 2014
The Fed’s quantitative easing raises questions about whether it has worked and its legacy.

Making the world better
Lina Nilsson and Shankar Sastry (WP) Oct 5, 2014
Development engineers improve the lot of the poorest people.

New era of muddle-nomics
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 5, 2014
After the Great Recession, we don’t know what to do next.

Review Helps IMF Keep Finger on Pulse of Post-Crisis World
IMF Survey Oct 5, 2014
Trade deals: Toxic talks Financial Times Subscription Required
Shawn Donnan (FT) Oct 6, 2014
Critics claim that international arbitration has morphed into a weapon that multinationals wield to threaten and influence.

Public investment really is a free lunch Financial Times Subscription Required
Lawrence Summers (FT) Oct 6, 2014
The IMF finds that a dollar of spending increases output by nearly $3.

A new broom sweeps in India’s clean-up Financial Times Subscription Required
Amy Kazmin (FT) Oct 6, 2014
Modi faces a tough task in inspiring people to rid the nation of waste.

The Fourth Major Era of Computing Kicks In Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Andy Kessler (WSJ) Oct 6, 2014
With mobile users now outnumbering desktop users, a new economic cycle has begun.

Here Comes the Internet of Money
Bloomberg View Oct 6, 2014
Financial innovation has widened access to capital, improved its allocation across the economy and made the world more prosperous.

IMF Supports Reforms for More Orderly Sovereign Debt Restructurings
IMF Survey Oct 6, 2014
The IMF’s Executive Board supports reforms to international sovereign bond contracts designed to address collective action problems in sovereign debt restructurings.

China’s Financial Floodgates
José Antonio Ocampo and Kevin P. Gallagher (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2014
As China’s economy starts to slow, following decades of spectacular growth, the government will increasingly be exposed to the siren song of capital-account liberalization. It should not allow itself to be tempted from its tried and tested course by calls for a policy that has led too many emerging economies onto the rocks.

How Low Can Gold Go?
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Oct 6, 2014
Gold has declined to its lowest price in more than four year, yet that doesn't seem to have sunk in with many of its devotees.

America’s Overrated Decline
Joseph S. Nye (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2014
With the approach of the US Congressional elections, questions about the health of America’s political institutions and the future of its global leadership have become rampant, with some citing partisan gridlock as evidence of America’s decline. But is America's situation really that bad?

The Creditworthy Poor?
Marcelo M. Giugale (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2014
Low-income countries are borrowing again – and at low rates – as investors scour global markets for decent yields. But low-income countries' access to private lenders comes with risks that should be highlighted at the outset, before they grow into imminent threats.

Bond markets help lower inflation
Andrew K Rose (VoxEU) Oct 6, 2014
Governments benefit from inflation since the real value of public debt falls but inflation is a tax on money holders. Bond holders are aware of this fact and act accordingly. This column explores empirically the role of bond markets in keeping inflation low. The existence of long, nominal, local-currency bonds lowers inflation by three to four percentage points. The results hold for inflation-targeting countries, and other monetary regimes do not have the same effects.

Has China’s Economy Become More “Standard”?
John G. Fernald, Eric Hsu, and Mark M. Spiegel (FRBSF Economic Letter) Oct 6, 2014
Financial liberalization in China has broad implications, including changing how its central bank’s monetary policy affects the nation’s economy. An estimate of Chinese economic activity and inflation based on a broad set of indicators suggests that the way policy is transmitted to China’s economy has become more like Western market economies in the past decade. Although Chinese monetary policy may actually have exacerbated its economic downturn during the global financial crisis, a move toward stimulatory policy has helped ease its slower growth more recently.

China swoops in on Italy’s power grids and luxury brands Financial Times Subscription Required
Rachel Sanderson (FT) Oct 7, 2014
EU debt crisis opened up periphery countries to Chinese investors.

Chinese translate the European work ethic Financial Times Subscription Required
Robin Kwong and Rachel Sanderson (FT) Oct 7, 2014
Next-generation migrants are more educated, higher skilled.

Trapped in a cycle of credit booms Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 7, 2014
The eurozone seems to be waiting for the Godot of global demand to float it off into debt sustainability.

Falling oil no fillip for shares any more Financial Times Subscription Required
James Mackintosh (FT) Oct 7, 2014
Lower price may have failed to lift shares, but we should wonder why they’ve not fallen by more.

High risk bonds have further to fall Financial Times Subscription Required
Alberto Gallo (FT) Oct 7, 2014
End of Fed QE, low liquidity and crowded trades spell danger.

The Politics of “Free” Trade Agreements
Carmen Dorobat (Mises Daily) Oct 7, 2014
Amidst news of the prolonged worldwide recession, new air strikes, secession attempts, and climate change, international trade — which in 2008 went through its largest crisis in history — has been mostly out of the public eye. Yet we’ve been told not to fear: the World Trade Organization, the foremost global body for promoting multilateral trade, remains watchful, and is optimistic that efforts for liberalization will bear fruit in the near future.

Global Growth Disappoints, Pace of Recovery Uneven and Country-Specific
IMF Survey Oct 7, 2014
An uneven and weak global recovery continues, with the pace of recovery reflecting various country-specific conditions.

How to Energize This Feeble Recovery
Bloomberg View Oct 7, 2014
Why haven't the extraordinary stimulus efforts of some of the world's largest central banks been enough to produce a healthy global recovery?

The BRICs Will Rise Again
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 7, 2014
Yes, emerging markets have stumbled, but that doesn't mean those countries are regressing to the crisis-prone world of old.

Make Your Own Silicon Valley
Ross Buchanan (Project Syndicate) Oct 7, 2014
California may be the world’s largest and best-known technology hub, but innovative startups are emerging almost unnoticed everywhere from Hong Kong to Finland. Clearly, the key features of Silicon Valley that foster innovation and entrepreneurship can be replicated in and adapted to a wide variety of contexts.

The ECB’s Faulty Weapon
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Oct 7, 2014
With inflation in the eurozone stubbornly remaining on a downward trajectory, pressure on the European Central Bank to do “something” to prevent outright deflation is growing. But, given the financial structure of eurozone countries, would the preferred "something" – quantitative easing – actually do the trick?

Is growth in east Africa for real?
Nikoloz Gigineishvili, Paolo Mauro and Ke Wang (VoxEU) Oct 7, 2014
Sustained rapid growth in many African economies has generated a debate on the sources and likely persistence of a so-called “African growth miracle”. This column looks at the factors underlying growth in an especially vibrant part of the continent – the East African Community. It suggests that rapid growth has been for real and reasonably well diversified.

Europe needs shift on public investment Financial Times Subscription Required
Mario Monti (FT) Oct 8, 2014
More flexibility for countries is required to promote growth.

Stick with consensus and sell Treasuries Financial Times Subscription Required
Mark Haefele (FT) Oct 8, 2014
Prepare for yields to rise by more than futures suggest.

What the Dollar’s Rise Tells Us About the Global Economy New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Oct 8, 2014
The U.S. may have more to gain from progress in Europe and Japan than from advantageous exchange rates for American companies.

We’re making progress
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 8, 2014
Viewed over two centuries, economic growth has produced huge gains in incomes and living standards.

The Billionaire Guide to World Growth Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Ruchir Sharma (WSJ) Oct 8, 2014
Rankings of the wealthy are fun to read, but how the rich prospered can tell us much about a country’s health.

Iron ore revolution to benefit China
John Helmer (AT) Oct 8, 2014
The Ukrainian civil war, and its aftermath, economic warfare between the US, the European Union, and Russia, are transforming global flows of the minerals from which steel is made. Starting with iron ore, the future for steelmaking will start at the minehead, not in Australia, nor Brazil, but in West Africa - and to China's benefit.

World Economy Needs Smart Fiscal Policies
IMF Survey Oct 8, 2014
At a time when job creation sits atop the policy agenda globally, fiscal policies can help support job creation—although designing the right policies will depend on conditions in individual countries, says the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor.

Can Anything Go Wrong for the Markets?
Vineer Bhansali (PIMCO) Oct 8, 2014
Risk management in proper portfolio construction consists of a combination of dynamic risk balancing, diversified beta sources, explicit options-based tail hedging and a minimum amount of liquidity. Faced with a long and expanding list of things that could go wrong, uncertainties about the likelihood of each shock and the lack of dependable precursory indicators, it seems that a structurally sound portfolio construction methodology that uses all these tools is essential. Given how inexpensive tail hedging today is in the context of long term-history, it seems that the risk-reward tradeoff also favors hedging.

Resurging Poland
Globalist Oct 8, 2014
Poland has come a long way since the fall of the Soviet Union.

The Problem With Steve Forbes’s New Gold Standard
David Gordon (Mises Daily) Oct 8, 2014
Review of "Money: How the Destruction of the Dollar Threatens the Global Economy."

Policymakers Should Encourage Economic Risk Taking, Keep Financial Excess Under Control
IMF Survey Oct 8, 2014
Policymakers are facing a new global imbalance: not enough economic risk-taking in support of growth, but growing excesses in financial risk-taking, which pose challenges to financial stability.

Inflationistas Are Guilty of Derp
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 8, 2014
People who believed that the Federal Reserve's post-crash policies would set off inflation were wrong then and their wrong now.

How the IMF Can Save the Global Economy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 8, 2014
These five themes will help the world's economic policy elite in its fight against "the new mediocre."

Will China Spark a Currency War?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 8, 2014
China hasn't talked about devaluing its currency, but economic realities may be pushing Beijing in that direction.

China’s Balancing Act
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Oct 8, 2014
China is now struggling with a dilemma common to all advanced credit booms: the longer the boom runs, the greater the danger of wasted investment, huge bad debts, and a major financial crisis. And, though China enjoys more room for maneuver than other countries facing similar credit booms, the risks remain serious.

Design Within Reach Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Nayef Al-Rodhan (FA) Oct 8, 2014
Preparing for the 4-D printing revolution.

China’s migrants thrive in Spain’s crisis Financial Times Subscription Required
Tobias Buck (FT) Oct 9, 2014
Entrepreneurs rely on family support to scale the economic ladder.

America’s economy is cooking on shale Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 9, 2014
As businesses enjoy lower energy costs, a new spirit of collaboration is taking hold.

Sanctions enable us to hurt each another Financial Times Subscription Required
Risto Penttila (FT) Oct 9, 2014
Great powers are practised at unexpected changes in policy.

New tools needed to tame capital flows Financial Times Subscription Required
Paul Tucker (FT) Oct 9, 2014
Ways must be found to prevent trouble spreading from one country to others.

‘Euroglut’ of gloom as Germany weakens Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Oct 9, 2014
Concern that eurozone could become a destabilising global force.

China trumps the competition in Africa Inc Financial Times Subscription Required
Javier Blas (FT) Oct 9, 2014
Commercial influence in the continent is growing despite overtures from the US, Europe and Japan.

A Global Economic Malaise New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Oct 9, 2014
Too many finance ministers and central bankers are unwilling or ill prepared to respond to a world economy on the verge of a recession.

How to Rob a Bank in Bangladesh
Tahmima Anam (NYT) Oct 9, 2014
The hard way is to drill through the wall. Most choose the easy way: take a big loan and default on it.

The Global Warming Statistical Meltdown Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Judith Curry (WSJ) Oct 9, 2014
Mounting evidence suggests that basic assumptions about climate change are mistaken: The numbers don’t add up.

TPP Ministerial Set for Australia, Robb Suggests "Basic Elements" of Deal by Year-End
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 33 Oct 9, 2014
Members of the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks appear to be ramping up their negotiating efforts in the hopes of reaching the main elements of an agreement by the end of this year, with Australia confirming last week that it would be hosting a ministerial-level meeting in Sydney later this month.

Argentina Import Restrictions Case to Undergo WTO Appeal
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 33 Oct 9, 2014
The WTO Appellate Body is set to hear appeals on the dispute over Buenos Aires' controversial import restrictions, with the EU, Japan, and Argentina all filing notices of appeal with the global trade arbiter over the past fortnight.

New IMF Forecasts Indicate Weaker Global Growth Ahead of Washington Meetings
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 33 Oct 9, 2014
After a year fraught with uneven growth and social and political turmoil across the Middle East, West Africa, East Asia, and Eastern Europe, new data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other organisations this week are indicating that the global economy could potentially pay the price.

In my view: Development depends on realising the potential of taxation
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (OECD Insights)( Oct 9, 2014
Developing country governments would do well to strengthen their tax systems so they can mobilise the domestic resources they need to finance their own development. This is particularly true for African countries, where the recent trend of decreasing ODA shows no sign of reversing.

Is China's Bubble the Next Financial Crisis?
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Oct 9, 2014
China's credit boom is running into diminishing returns.

The Evolution of Devolution
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Oct 9, 2014
Devolution is coming to the United Kingdom and other countries, and its appeal is undeniable. But it is important to know where devolution ends and dysfunction begins.

In Farageland
James Meek (LRB) Oct 9, 2014
Farage says he wants a Switzerland-style trade relationship with the EU, and an Australian-style immigration system with the world: fewer Polish builders, more Indian scientists. But this isn’t the message Ukip is putting out on the street, where EU membership isn’t an issue. Immigration is. All immigration. Foreignness. Otherness

Getting Real About China New York Times Subscription Required
Wesley K. Clark (NYT) Oct 10, 2014
“Constructive engagement” is failing. What’s needed is a strong America that can defend the international order.

How Saving Grows the Economy
Dan Sanchez (Mises Daily) Oct 10, 2014
Back in the 1980s, Irwin Schiff, anti-tax activist, political prisoner, and father of free-market pundit Peter Schiff, wrote a marvelous comic book titled How an Economy Grows and Why It Doesn’t, which teaches economic principles through a light-hearted story.

Why Is the Fed Thinking Globally? 
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 10, 2014
The Fed usually acts as if the U.S. is a closed economy. Suddenly it is fretting about global issues and the dollar.

India's Most Laughable Laws
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Oct 10, 2014
India's Narendra Modi says he wants to scrap antiquated laws. He should worry less about a ban on balloons, though, than inefficient taxes and extortionate regulations.

Practical Policy Prescriptions to Help Offset Geopolitical Uncertainties
Scott A. Mather & Greg E. Sharenow (PIMCO) Oct 10, 2014
We believe Europe should relax fiscal budget constraints to allow for fiscal stimulus to offset any economic drag, while maintaining extremely accommodative monetary policy. The U.S. and its relatively newfound energy renaissance can also play an important role in supporting Europe and the global economy by signaling its intention to compete for energy market share. In addition, long-term planning should begin today to reduce Europe's energy dependency on Russia, and the U.S. should revisit current export policy to send a powerful signal to the markets and allies over the security of future supplies.

TTIP: Transatlantic Blues?
Kathryn Hauser (Globalist) Oct 10, 2014
The TTIP negotiators have lost their way. Time for a reset.

China's Economy Slides–and Capital Flees
Gordon G. Chang (World Affairs) Oct 10, 2014
The Chinese now believe that high growth is normal, and they will probably not react well to a long downturn, especially given the political tensions already simmering in the one-party state.

Buybacks: Money well spent? Financial Times Subscription Required
Michael Mackenzie, Tom Braithwaite and Nicole Bullock (FT) Oct 12, 2014
Critics say that the boom has diverted corporate cash from creating jobs and investment.

Low rates jam the economy’s vital signals Financial Times Subscription Required
James Grant (FT) Oct 12, 2014
Actions are no less subversive even if taken under the banner of the law.

Germany’s weak point is export strength Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Oct 12, 2014
Wherever stimulus comes from, it will not be from Europe’s powerhouse.

China’s policy follows a random path Financial Times Subscription Required
Joe Zhan (FT) Oct 12, 2014
The Chinese are firmly attached to the status quo, whatever that happens to be.

Glencore’s ambitions have global impact Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Ford (FT) Oct 12, 2014
A tie-up with Rio Tinto could make them too dominant.

Europe’s economic taboos cannot endure Financial Times Subscription Required
Reza Moghadam (FT) Oct 12, 2014
Skip the stages of grief and accept a comprehensive solution.

‘Normal’ interest rates are distant dream Financial Times Subscription Required
Russ Koesterich (FT) Oct 12, 2014
Short-term rates will rise but a return to historic levels is a long way off.

Will Boom Lead to Bust in Silicon Valley? New York Times Subscription Required
NYT Oct 12, 2014
There are signs that the technology industry has entered another period of irrational exuberance.

Why the world economy sputters
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 12, 2014
There are three pervasive problems that foster pessimism.

Yuan Bonds and Other U.K. Innovations
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 12, 2014
The U.K. plans to borrow yuan to cement London's position as Europe's financial center, in an echo of its tactics a quarter of a century ago when the Euro first posed a threat.

Indonesia: Now for the hard part Financial Times Subscription Required
Ben Bland (FT) Oct 13, 2014
External economic pressures are building at a time when the new president has little room for manoeuvre

Populism distracts globalisation’s losers Financial Times Subscription Required
Rajan Ganesh (FT) Oct 13, 2014
Who is worse: the elitist who shrugs at people left behind or the huckster who offers false hope?

Bond markets suggest we are all Japanese Financial Times Subscription Required
Peter Tasker (FT) Oct 13, 2014
Low yields have an easy explanation: declining growth and low inflation.

Bernanke’s failed mortgage application exposes the flaw in banking Financial Times Subscription Required
Amir Sufi (FT) Oct 13, 2014
We must stop providing bailouts based on unrealistic models.

Looking past the (West’s) end of the nose
Jim O‘Neill and Alessio Terzi (Bruegel) Oct 13, 2014
World GDP is in a soft patch, but global growth trend is on the rise.

The growing pains of investment treaties
Angel Gurría (OECD Insight) Oct 13, 2014
International investment treaties are in the spotlight.

Germany Sabotages Europe
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 13, 2014
It's time the Bundesbank stopped grousing and started backing Mario Draghi's efforts to resuscitate the euro zone economy.

The Centennial Crisis Cycle and the Middle East
Meghnad Desai (Globalist) Oct 13, 2014
How the West is implicated in the current fires burning the Middle East

A Recovery Driven by Manufacturing? It's Not Happening, George
David G. Blanchflower (Independent/PIIE) Oct 13, 2014
I was in the United States at a conference last week with the chief economist at Citibank and the former MPC external member Willem Buiter, who has long been my hero: In March 1999 he became the only person who ever voted for a cut not divisible by 25-the records show he voted to cut by 40 basis points!

Venezuela’s Spectacular Underperformance
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2014
Venezuela is a major oil-exporting economy that is so badly mismanaged that real (inflation-adjusted) per capita GDP today is 2% lower than it was in 1970, despite a ten-fold increase in oil prices. And now its president is lashing out at academics who have the temerity to point that out.

Are Services the New Manufactures?
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2014
Ever since the Industrial Revolution, manufacturing has been the key to rapid economic growth. Though optimists believe that service industries can play the role of "growth escalator" that manufacturing did in the past, two key differences between the sectors suggest otherwise.

The Procurement Goldmine
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2014
Government procurement is like mining for gold: there are serious risks and potentially massive payoffs. With the right approach, governments can benefit from the latter, without falling victim to the former.

The Age of Vulnerability
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2014
While many countries succeeded in moving people out of poverty, the welfare of a growing number is precarious. An economic system that fails to deliver gains for most of its citizens, and in which a rising share of the population faces increasing insecurity, is, in a fundamental sense, a failed economic system.

Stock-Market Optimists Face a Big Challenge
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 13, 2014
It's getting harder for central bankers to levitate markets.

Finland Downgrade Should Wake Up All Europe
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 13, 2014
Finland's downgrade by S&P tells European governments that they ought to improve their economies' competitiveness.

The New Washington Consensus? Deutschland Über Alles
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Oct 14, 2014
The art of casting Germany both as chief villain and magic wand of the global economy.

World can do better than ‘new mediocre’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 14, 2014
We must launch well-crafted reforms in both emerging and high-income economies.

Sensible for Fed to speak out on dollar Financial Times Subscription Required
Robin Harding (FT) Oct 14, 2014
Central bank’s words serve as counterweight to currency’s rise.

Big bond fund outflows are risk for banks Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) Oct 14, 2014
Changes in market structure raise chance of extreme volatility.

Infrastructure bars India’s growth path Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Oct 14, 2014
Investment climate remains inhospitable and cost of capital too high.

A Pump War? New York Times Subscription Required
Thomas L. Friedman (NYT) Oct 14, 2014
The decline in oil prices is no accident. What’s really playing out here?

China Slowdown? Don't Worry About It
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 14, 2014
A slowdown in the Chinese economy wouldn't be good news for the U.S. economy, but it wouldn't do much harm either.

They Talked. They Left. Now What? 
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 14, 2014
Global economic leaders know what they have to do to save a weak recovery. Why aren't they doing it?

Private Companies Are Driving China's Growth
Peter R. Orszag (Bloomberg View) Oct 14, 2014
The prevailing image of state capitalism in China is dated and wrong. As a new book demonstrates, private companies are now the country's main engine of economic growth.

Eurozone Budgets Under the Spotlight
John Bruton (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2014
Eurozone governments have enjoyed an extended period of low interest rates. But, as indebted governments submit their budgets to the European Commission for review, they should consider the fiscal impact of a sudden reversal in bond-market sentiment, which is neither entirely rational nor sympathetic to political rhetoric.

China’s Silk Road Revival
Shashi Tharoor (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2014
The phrase “Silk Road” evokes a romantic image – half history, half myth – of tented camel caravans winding their way across the trackless deserts and mountains of Central Asia. But the Silk Road is not just part of a fabled past; it is an important feature of China’s current foreign policy.

Dirty Development Money
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2014
One of the biggest problems affecting the world’s poor is one that few have ever heard about: illicit financial flows. With the world preparing to establish the specific targets that will guide global development efforts for the next 15 years, the time to change that is now.

If Draghi Buys Bonds, He Is Really Buying Time
Andrew Bosomworth (PIMCO/Financial News) Oct 14, 2014
It was John Maynard Keynes who invented the phrase “liquidity trap” to describe how central bank policies designed to resuscitate an economy could fail when interest rates get close to zero. Even though he was writing 70 years ago, he could have been describing the situation in the eurozone today.

TPP, China and the Future of Global Trade Order
Shuaihua Cheng (YaleGlobal) Oct 14, 2014
China could ask to join TPP, but would prefer finalizing the Doha Round with the WTO

After QE: Taking off the stabilisers Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Oct 15, 2014
Markets are braced for increased volatility as central banks signal an end to unlimited liquidity.

Technology will not kill the banks Financial Times Subscription Required
John Gapper (FT) Oct 15, 2014
Silicon Valley does not want a new financial system, but rather to ride on the existing one.

Weak yen is no panacea but Abe needs it Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Oct 15, 2014
Depreciation is the central bank’s most potent tool. If it falters so could the reflation experiment.

In praise of tax inversions Financial Times Subscription Required
James Mackintosh (FT) Oct 15, 2014
While tax-driven deals are not yet dead, they are pallid and shaky.

Rocking the markets Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Guthrie (FT) Oct 15, 2014
Crashing chords of final abandonment of view US had decoupled from a slowing world.

Winners and losers from oil price plunge Financial Times Subscription Required
Ed Morse (FT) Oct 15, 2014
Brent crude at $80 would have effect of huge global QE programme.

As Oil Prices Plummet, Saudi Arabia Faces a Test of Strategy New York Times Subscription Required
Ben Hubbard and Clifford Krauss (NYT) Oct 15, 2014
Saudi officials have signaled that they are prepared to endure reduced profits rather than cut production in an effort to prop up prices, as they did to their later regret in the early 1980s.

A Pump War? New York Times Subscription Required
Thomas L. Friedman (NYT) Oct 15, 2014
The decline in oil prices is no accident. What’s really playing out here?

The Self-Inflicted U.S. Brain Drain Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Michael S. Malone (WSJ) Oct 15, 2014
Up to 1.5 million skilled workers are stuck in immigration limbo. Many give up and go home.

A not-so-simple fix for the economy
Charles Lane (WP) Oct 15, 2014
The IMF’s proposal to jump-start the global economy through infrastructure comes with risks.

The Economic Consequences of Sex
Mukush Eswaran (Project Syndicate) Oct 15, 2014
If assumptions about gender (such as innate differences in abilities) have become intellectually untenable, why do gender differences in economic outcomes persist? Economists have recently identified a fundamental reason in a phenomenon that remains pervasive: the gap in autonomy (or bargaining power) between women and men.

New Battlegrounds in Development Finance
Nancy Alexander and Francis A. Kornegay (Project Syndicate) Oct 15, 2014
Infrastructure financing in the developing world is relying increasingly on public-private partnerships. The new appeal of PPPs may redefine not just development economics, but also the overall relationship between rich and poor countries – though not necessarily for the better.

Energy Limits Won't Hold Back Growth
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 15, 2014
The world's limited supplies of energy probably won't stifle growth, an argument that some scientists have been making.

China's Next Export: Deflation
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 15, 2014
Inflation hawks should take a closer look at China's most recent data, which contain worrying implications for efforts to roll back easy-money policies around the world.

Why Putin and Merkel Don't Put Growth First
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 15, 2014
Politicians as different as Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin have valid reasons for choosing policies that do not lead to immediate economic growth.

October's Wild Ride Isn't Over Yet
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 15, 2014
Asset losses are a hard lesson for investors who were lulled by what they believed was a low-growth, low-volatility equilibrium.

Indian Economy to Overtake China's
Gordon G. Chang (World Affairs) Oct 15, 2014
Narendra Modi’s victory this year signaled a clear rejection of the socialism of India’s founders. The shift has some analysts predicting a sea of change for the country’s economy.

Why We Must Break Up the Financial Herd
Avinash D. Persaud (QFinance) Oct 15, 2014
Financial firms can play an important role in restoring growth but only as part of a system that does not accentuate boom and bust.

Markets are parched for liquidity despite a flood of cash Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 16, 2014
This week’s price gyrations show that the degree to which assets can be traded matters hugely.

Deflation threat to Draghi’s credibility Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Oct 16, 2014
Markets expect inflation to undershoot central bank targets.

The markets are right to be anxious Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephen King (FT) Oct 16, 2014
The US no longer controls its own destiny nor, indeed, the destiny of others.

Living in a new industrial revolution Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrew McAfee (FT) Oct 16, 2014
Nothing changes the world like technology. Here’s why I’m optimistic.

What Markets Will New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) Oct 16, 2014
The financial turmoil of the past few days, especially in Europe, have policy crusaders again sure that they know what the markets are asking for.

Global Markets Catch the Chinese Flu Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Ruchir Sharma (WSJ) Oct 16, 2014
The ill effects of Beijing’s borrowing and spending binge are rippling through the world economy.

What the 2014 Oil Crash Means
Michael Levi (Politico) Oct 16, 2014
Prices are falling—fast. Is that good or bad news for the United States?

When meetings matter—The World Bank and IMF Convene
Robert Kahn (CFR) Oct 16, 2014
There are many reasons cited for this week’s market turndown and risk pullback, including concerns about global growth, Ebola, turmoil in the Middle East, and excessive investor comfort from easy money. What has been less commented on is the role played by last weekend’s IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings.

How Wall Street is Killing Big Oil
Deepak Gopinath (YaleGlobal) Oct 16, 2014
Companies rely on stock markets to raise money by selling small shares of ownership to investors. But investors may be killing rather than boosting major private energy companies. Once reliable market beaters, Big Oil shares are lagging.

A long-term view on inequality
Brian Keeley (OECD Insights) Oct 16, 2014
Even though poverty is not what it once was, humanity is still divided between haves and the have-nots.

IMF Calls for Structural Reforms, Cooperation to Spur Global Growth
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 34 Oct 16, 2014
Structural reforms will be key in shoring up the fragile global economic recovery, particularly in light of increased downside risks, said the world’s finance chiefs and central bankers following the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Annual Meetings in Washington this past weekend.

EU Releases TTIP Negotiating Mandate
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 34 Oct 16, 2014
EU governments last Thursday decided to make public negotiating instructions given to the European Commission in June 2013 for hammering out the bloc’s ongoing transatlantic trade talks with the US.

To Unleash an Infrastructure Boom, Turn to the Private Sector
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Tyler Moran (PIIE) Oct 16, 2014
With the world economy suffering, neither monetary nor fiscal nostrums are giving much relief. Easy money has boosted bond and equity prices, as well as housing values, but it has done little to lift wages or employment. Fiscal expansion is constrained by politics, not economics. Debt and deficit hawks are ascendant in Germany and elsewhere, and in too many influential circles "Keynes" has become a pejorative word.

Is Asia Ready for Another Wild Ride?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2014
Asia rode out the last recession in relative style. But the methods it employed then are no longer sustainable in the face of renewed global volatility.

High-Speed Traders Put a Bit Too Much Gravy on Their Meat
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2014
It can be hard to tell manipulative from non-manipulative strategies, but naming your strategies "Meat" and "Gravy" is a clue.

France Gets Whacked by the Bond Market
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2014
If I was the head of bond sales for France, I'd be somewhat worried that investors seem to be downgrading my status to that of peripheral European borrower.

Greece Still Needs Intensive Care
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2014
Greece wants to discharge itself from the supervision that accompanied its 2010 transfusion of emergency aid worth 240 billion euros. The bond market, though, says Greece still needs intensive care.

China’s Vicious Growth Circle
Keyu Jin (Project Syndicate) Oct 16, 2014
Most economists have a reason to be worried about China’s economy – whether it be low consumption, industrial overcapacity, environmental degradation, or government interventions. What many fail to recognize is that these are merely the symptoms of a single underlying problem: China’s skewed growth model.

Putin Leaves Private Businesses in the Cold
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2014
The erstwhile heroes of Russian private business don't see a role for themselves in Vladimir Putin's new, isolationist Russia.

The Spider of Finance
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Oct 16, 2014
The Financial Stability Board has now been in operation for five years. Though no international audit of its performance has been undertaken, a fair verdict would be that the FSB has done no more and no less than what its political masters have been prepared to allow it to do.

Oil Bust Has Brazil in Deep Water
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Oct 17, 2014
Petrobras has long been perp-walked to a different set of rules.

Buy a Yacht, Save the World
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Oct 17, 2014
Global growth depends increasingly on U.S. consumers buying stuff they don't need.

How India Can Bust Inflation
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Oct 17, 2014
Things are looking up for Indian central banker Raghuram Rajan. Now's the time to settle outstanding questions about how his bank works.

The Inequality Trifecta
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Oct 17, 2014
Perhaps the most striking disconnect at the annual IMF/World Bank meetings was the disparity between participants’ interest in discussions of inequality and the ongoing lack of a formal action plan for governments to address it. This represents a profound failure of policy imagination – one that must urgently be addressed.

Unleashing Africa’s Girl Power
Joaquim Chissano (Project Syndicate) Oct 17, 2014
Though Sub-Saharan Africa’s economies have boomed in recent years, the headline figures mask longer-term problems – not least, an over-reliance on natural resources and chronic inequalities. Inclusive, sustainable growth is achievable, but only by tapping the continent’s greatest reserve of energy and creativity: African women.

Four Reasons the Bernanke-Yellen Asset-Price Inflation May Be Nearing Its End
Joseph T. Salerno (Mises Daily) Oct 17, 2014
There are strong indications that the remarkable run up of asset prices in the last few years is beginning to run out of steam and may be on the verge of collapse. We will leave aside the question of whether the asset inflation is symptomatic of a garden-variety inflationary boom or is a more virulent bubble phenomenon in which prices are rising today simply because buyers anticipate that they will rise tomorrow.

When a Stock Market Theory Is Contagious New York Times Subscription Required
Robert J. Shiller (NYT) Oct 18, 2014
Is the world economy suffering from “secular stagnation”? True or false, the idea alone could keep hurting stock prices.

Europe’s Essential Unity
José Manuel Barroso (Project Syndicate) Oct 18, 2014
Over the past ten years, the EU has endured a series of unprecedented crises, the likes of which it is unlikely to see again. But other, no less daunting challenges lie ahead, and Europeans would do well to remember the lessons learned along the way.

The great hole of China Economist Subscription Required
Economist Oct 18, 2014
Its debt will not drag down the world economy, but it risks zombifying the country’s financial system.

What China Means by 'Rule of Law' New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Gewirtz (NYT) Oct 19, 2014
Every reform made or promised in China provides an opening.

Healthier and wealthier – the changing face of growing old Financial Times Subscription Required
Norma Cohen (FT) Oct 19, 2014
By 2050 those aged over 65 will outnumber children under five. The first part of a series on ageing populations looks at how that demographic shift is creating a new and powerful consumer class.

Eurozone stagnation is a greater threat than debt Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Oct 19, 2014
Monetary policy can boost markets in the shortrun, but this cannot be sustained indefinitely.

Russia cannot stand low oil prices forever Financial Times Subscription Required
Sergei Guriev (FT) Oct 19, 2014
The government will have either to cut spending or raise taxes.

Oil gush keeps prices low as fear is high Financial Times Subscription Required
Daniel Yergin (FT) Oct 19, 2014
There is a surplus of geopolitical risk in the world, but a greater surplus of oil.

Hollande’s road to reform is tortuous Financial Times Subscription Required
Hugh Carnegy (FT) Oct 19, 2014
France’s president has accelerated change, but too slowly to avoid a clash with Brussels over deficit reduction.

Ebola highlights Nigeria’s potential Financial Times Subscription Required
William Wallis (FT) Oct 20, 2014
Nation faces battle against corruption and Islamist insurgency.

Pick fund managers with skin in the game Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephen Foley (FT) Oct 20, 2014
What if there was a way to identify market beaters in long run?

Market nerves do not portend global slump Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrew Sentance (FT) Oct 20, 2014
Negative focus colours interpretation of economic data.

A challenge to the old guard of finance Financial Times Subscription Required
Eswar Prasad (FT) Oct 20, 2014
The IMF’s is able to assess countries’ financial and macroeconomic policies.

Borders and budgets could lay Europe low Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) Oct 20, 2014
Unrest over sovereignty issues risks pushing EU to the point of no return.

China Versus America New York Times Subscription Required
Roger Cohen (NYT) Oct 20, 2014
How Chinese "harmony" and American "freedom" produce the dangerous clash of two exceptionalisms.

Strong Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, but Pockets of Difficulty
IMF Survey Oct 20, 2014
Strong growth in most of sub-Saharan Africa’s economies should support robust regional expansion in 2014 and 2015, the IMF’s regional outlook says. In most countries, growth benefits from a blend of infrastructure investment, expanding services, and agricultural output.

The Eurozone is About Tough Love
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Oct 20, 2014
Help is available to countries in trouble – in exchange for meeting conditions.

The ECB’s Battle With the Markets: Home Truths from the Eurozone
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Oct 21, 2014
Amidst global stock market turmoil, what about Europe’s fundamentals?

The gloves are off in the sovereign debt debate
Brian Caplen (The Banker) Oct 20, 2014
The clauses attached to Kazakhstan's latest sovereign bond show that governments are squaring up to so-called vulture funds in the wake of Argentina's recent default.

America, the Balanced
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Oct 20, 2014
It may be time to stop worrying about the US current-account deficit – and not only because of adjustment at home and in China. It is possible that, properly measured, America's true deficits were smaller than has been reported, and even that, in some years, they were not there at all.

Brazil’s Institutional Limbo
Camila Villard Duran (Project Syndicate) Oct 20, 2014
Brazil's presidential election will determine the future of the central bank – and therefore the country's macroeconomic trajectory. The 50-year old institution is ripe for reform, but neither candidate seems ready to give it the independence it needs, or to ensure that it is truly accountable to citizens.

4 Lessons of a Wild Market Week
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 20, 2014
Almost anything makes markets jittery these days, and investors are conditioned to rely on the Fed for support.

A Little Volatility Can Be Good for You
Bloomberg View Oct 20, 2014
Investors are complaining that regulations are making big banks less willing to buy when everyone wants to sell. Why would that be bad?

Reasons to be gloomy about EM prospects Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Oct 21, 2014
Asia’s export-led growth model is unlikely to work as well in future.

Emerging markets foster gloom Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) Oct 21, 2014
Asia’s export-led growth model requires a rethink after a decade of success.

Stakes high for Europe bank stress tests Financial Times Subscription Required
Huw van Steenis (FT) Oct 21, 2014
Good news on key issue of assisting capital-raising.

ECB leak a tonic for volatile Italy Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Oct 21, 2014
Bigger, more liquid markets can sometimes be more responsive under stress.

Reform alone is no solution for eurozone Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 21, 2014
A policy that may work for Germany alone cannot work for an economy more than three times as big.

Corporate India frets over debt levels Financial Times Subscription Required
James Crabtree (FT) Oct 21, 2014
Nation’s industrial and banking sectors enter new political era still undercapitalised.

Rouhani's 'economic package' is empty
Ismael Hossein-Zadeh (AT) Oct 21, 2014
The belief of Iran's Hassan Rouhani administration that the establishment of better relations with the US would serve as a panacea to the country's economic woes has effectively linked any chance of financial revival with an uncertain negotiation process. Perceptions that an unrestrained integration into global capitalism and wholesale privatization will end the West's imperialist policy on Iran are equally naive.

The Similarities Between Germany and China
George Friedman (Stratfor) Oct 21, 2014
I returned last weekend from a month-long trip to both East Asia and Europe. I discovered three things:

The Saudis Aren't in Control of the Oil Market Any Longer
Nick Butler (Globalist) Oct 21, 2014
The brave new world where excess oil supply meets static demand.

New Revenues Can Offset Africa’s Rising Income Inequality
IMF Survey Oct 21, 2014
Combating rising income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa will require a pragmatic, multipronged approach to uncover new sources of revenue while also enabling critical investments in human capital, participants agree at a seminar in Washington, D.C.

Is Hong Kong China's Future?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 21, 2014
Many people have given up hope of making China look more like Hong Kong. In fact, the mainland's future looks much like that of the former British colony's present.

Inheritance and Inequality
Edward N. Wolff (Project Syndicate) Oct 21, 2014
In his book Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Thomas Piketty emphasizes the rising share of inheritances and gifts in household wealth over time. This seems like a shocking revelation, implying ever-rising wealth inequality, but is it correct?

The Moral Economy of Debt
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Oct 21, 2014
The creditor-debtor relationship embodies no iron law of morality; rather, it is a social relationship that always must be negotiated. When quantitative precision and an unyielding approach to debt obligations are the rule, conflict and penury soon follow.

What Large Data Flows Mean for U.S.-EU Trade
Joshua Meltzer (Brookings) Oct 21, 2014
Cross-border data flows between the U.S. and Europe are the highest in the world. Joshua Meltzer examines what this means for trade and investment opportunities.

Forward guidance: Human plans and divine laughter
David Miles (VoxEU) Oct 21, 2014
Many central banks embrace forward guidance by announcing expected interest rate paths. But how likely it is that actual rates will be close to expected ones? This column argues that quantifying such uncertainty poses great difficulties. Precise probability statements in a world of uncertainty (not just risk) can be misleading. It might be better to rely on qualitative guidance such as: “Interest rate rises will probably be gradual and likely to be to a level below the old normal”.

Sovereign-debt relief and its aftermath: The 1930s, the 1990s, the future?
Carmen M Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch (VoxEU) Oct 21, 2014
To work towards resolving Europe’s ongoing debt crisis this column looks to the past. From the recent emerging market debt crisis (1980s-2000s) and the interwar episode of the 1920s-1930s we learn that debt write-downs and defaults are able to be postponed but not prevented. Punishment for default is temporary, sometimes followed by a renewed surge in borrowing that leads to another crisis.

Financial Market Cognitive Dissonance
Harley Bassman (PIMCO) Oct 21, 2014
Presently, the financial markets are confronted with two conflicting pricing structures: a U.S. dollar yield curve that anticipates a significant increase in interest rates over the medium term, and an options market that offers "rate insurance" at the lowest prices in decades. Markets may appear confounded by cognitive dissonance, but forward-looking investors can peer through the fog: A return to a more recognizable risk/return profile, even if market returns are lower overall (as may well be the case over the secular horizon), could help investors more confidently align longer-term objectives with strategies.

The myopic western view of China’s rise Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Jacques (FT) Oct 22, 2014
The reforms that count tend to conform to the western model.

High stakes to keep rates low Financial Times Subscription Required
Chris Giles (FT) Oct 22, 2014
The case for the 0.5 per cent interest rate is weakening.

Marshall’s grand plan applies to Ukraine Financial Times Subscription Required
Anders Aslund (FT) Oct 22, 2014
The west will have to co-operate to stop Putin and should do so now.

China’s Missing Business Cycle Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Oct 22, 2014
A slowdown will make the real health of the economy clearer.

Millionaire’s club expands
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 22, 2014
A new study puts the worldwide total at 35 million in 2014.

Pity Poor Germany? Leadership Comes with Responsibility
Richard Phillips (Globalist) Oct 22, 2014
How can an economy, which represents only 4.9% of global GDP, be so central to the global economic outlook?

Europe’s Brush with Debt
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) Oct 22, 2014
French Prime Minister Manuel Valls and his Italian counterpart, Matteo Renzi, refuse to comply with the eurozone's 2012 fiscal compact; instead, they intend to run up fresh debts. Their stance highlights a fundamental flaw in the European Monetary Union’s structure – one that Europe’s leaders must address before it is too late.

The TPP’s Missing Ingredient
Simon Johnson (Simon Johnson) Oct 22, 2014
The typical approach when seeking to finalize an agreement aimed at reducing trade barriers is to ask for less, not more, from those on the other side of the table. But the Trans-Pacific Partnership is different: It will work only if the US insists that participating countries do not engage in currency manipulation.

The New Challenge to Market Democracies
William A. Galston (Brookings) Oct 22, 2014
We’ve lost sight of what makes democracy work: recommendations for fixing the broken bargain between governments and citizens.

The ECB as lender of last resort?
Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dirk Schoenmaker (VoxEU) Oct 22, 2014
As part of the move to a banking union, the largest banks in the Eurozone will soon be supervised by the ECB. This column argues that supervision and the lender of last resort function should be seen as a joint product. After the introduction of the euro, the national central banks continued to act as lenders of last resort because bank supervision remained at the national level. Now that supervision is moving to the ECB, so should the lender of last resort function for the larger, cross-border, banks.

The Oil Price Swoon Won’t Stop the Shale Boom Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mark P. Mills (WSJ) Oct 23, 2014
Still profitable at lower prices, fracking is ripe for technology gains that would help it weather further declines.

Commodities: A partial pump primer Financial Times Subscription Required
Chris Giles (FT) Oct 23, 2014
What does the fall in prices mean for a fragile global economy?

Jingle that sounds the road to recovery Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 23, 2014
It sometimes pays to wipe the debt slate clean rather than sweep problems under the carpet.

Blame Germany for the right reasons Financial Times Subscription Required
Otmar Issing (FT) Oct 23, 2014
The case for running a deficit to stimulate the economy is flimsy.

Eurozone crisis fears re-emerge Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) Oct 23, 2014
Markets unsure if ECB bank stress test results will be positive.

EU, Singapore Finalise Investment Negotiations
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 35 Oct 23, 2014
Singapore and the EU announced last week that they had completed the final section of their free trade deal, specifically the investment talks that had been left outstanding when the rest of the pact was completed a year ago.

Seychelles’ WTO Accession Terms Finalised
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 35 Oct 23, 2014
After nearly two decades of negotiations, Seychelles is set to become the WTO's 161st member, with the Working Party tasked with the negotiations signing off on the island nation's accession terms on 17 October.

New Stage of Consultations Begins as WTO Deadlock Persists
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 35 Oct 23, 2014
WTO members are still far from a solution on the implementation of the decisions reached at their ministerial conference last December in Bali, Indonesia, with Director-General Roberto Azevêdo warning last Thursday that the impasse could be "the most serious situation that this organisation has ever faced."

New EU Commission Confirmed as Climate, Energy Meeting Kicks Off
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 35 Oct 23, 2014
The European Parliament has signed off on the proposed slate of officials who will serve in the new European Commission, paving the way for the group to take office in November. The news comes at a particularly busy time for the EU, with the bloc's leaders also aiming to finalise a new climate and energy framework for 2030 this week.

Germany, America and the New Global Order
Stephan Szabo (Globalist) Oct 23, 2014
How two reluctant, yet pivotal powers adjust to a pluralistic and less Western world order.

The End of Free Banking
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 23, 2014
U.K. banks will disappear from the high street as the Internet takes over; and retail banking won't be free for much longer in a world of zero interest rates.

A New Macroeconomic Strategy
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Oct 23, 2014
Both neo-Keynesians and supply-siders have tried and failed to overcome the high-income economies’ persistently weak performance in recent years. It is time for a new approach, one based on sustainable, investment-led growth.

The Rebirth of Egypt
Merit Al-Sayed, Mark Esposito, and Terence Tse (Project Syndicate) Oct 23, 2014
If macroeconomic indicators are to be believed, Egypt’s economic growth has ground almost to a halt over the past three years. Worse, however, the past three decades attest to the failure of conventional macroeconomics to guide policymakers in managing development.

The WTO’s Reform Crisis
Emily Jones (Project Syndicate) Oct 23, 2014
The World Trade Organization’s director-general, Roberto Azevêdo, has called for an urgent shakeup of his institution, and one of the main reform proposals is to abandon consensus-based decision-making. That might boost efficiency, but it could jeopardize one of the WTO’s greatest assets: its legitimacy.

Europe’s Fiscal Wormhole
Guntram B. Wolff (Project Syndicate) Oct 23, 2014
The fulfillment of policy rules in the eurozone appears to be impossible without growth, but growth appears to be impossible without breaking the rules. With all of the rules pointing toward recession, how can Europe boost recovery?

'Whatever it takes' breaks down
John H. Makin (AEI) Oct 23, 2014
High hopes for global economic growth in 2014 have been dashed by still-declining growth and inflation, and outright global deflation is becoming more likely. The policy measures enacted thus far to reinvigorate the economy are not working, and policymakers have expressed no clear idea about what to do next. Central banks and governments must be more open about alternative approaches to managing the threat of stagnation and low growth and should prepare for a period of sharp market correction that may make these new policies more necessary.

Realising China’s sustainable growth rate Financial Times Subscription Required
Yukon Huang (FT) Oct 24, 2014
Beijing’s reforms have the potential to increase government expenditures and boost consumption.

China Will Keep Growing. Just Ask the Soviets. New York Times Subscription Required
Neil Irwin (NYT) Oct 24, 2014
Can China continue its torrid pace of economic growth for decades to come? The long arc of history suggests not, according to a paper by Harvard’s Lant Pritchett and Lawrence Summers.

The Return of Volatility Is Mainly About Monetary Policy Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Niall Ferguson (WSJ) Oct 24, 2014
This month’s wild market swings show there is no smooth exit from QE3.

American-Made Financial Repression
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Oct 24, 2014
The late economist Ronald McKinnon argued that China and the US, by working together, could alleviate financial repression and enhance global monetary stability. Unfortunately, this advice is not popular among US economists and policymakers, who prefer the short-term political advantages afforded to them by free-market rhetoric.

Here's What the Fed Will Do
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 24, 2014
The Fed will be forceful in trying to avoid mistakes and reduce risks of an accident in the markets.

Cheaper oil: Winners and losers Economist Subscription Required
Economist Oct 25, 2014
America and its friends benefit from falling oil prices; its most strident critics don’t.

The euro zone: The world’s biggest economic problem Economist Subscription Required
Economist Oct 25, 2014
Deflation in the euro zone is all too close and extremely dangerous.

Patronage will persist in Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Tony Barber (FT) Oct 26, 2014
The bailout is a reminder of how big powers have often exercised control.

China’s doomed ‘socialist rule of law’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Rebecca Liao (FT) Oct 26, 2014
The Communist party attempt to introduce legal redress is an impossible feat.

Germany must still be a force for freedom Financial Times Subscription Required
Robert Zoellick (FT) Oct 26, 2014
US and Berlin should launch a strategic dialogue about the changing world.

Close the door on an accidental migration Financial Times Subscription Required
David Goodhart (FT) Oct 26, 2014
If you can loosen the rules, you can also tighten them.

Beijing’s journey from luxury to thrift Financial Times Subscription Required
James Kynge (FT) Oct 26, 2014
China’s ballooning debt and slowing growth will be tough to manage.

EU must act now to avoid ‘lost decade’ Financial Times Subscription Required
Scott Minerd (FT) Oct 26, 2014
None of the tools currently on the table will get the job done.

When iPhones Ring, the Economy Listens New York Times Subscription Required
Jeff Sommer (NYT) Oct 26, 2014
Beyond serving as Apple’s biggest profit center, the iPhone is also a bedrock of consumer spending and the stock market.

Dreamboat Vampires and Zombie Capitalists New York Times Subscription Required
David Castillo and William Egginton (NYT) Oct 26, 2014
The undead may best express our anxieties about capitalism: legions of mindless, soulless consumers who sustain its endless production.

Brazil Sticks With Statism Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Mary O’Grady (WSJ) Oct 26, 2014
Odds are that the country’s reputation for economic mediocrity is safe for another four years.

What drives micro and macro volatility?
Cosmin L. Ilut, Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider (VoxEU) Oct 26, 2014
Heightened economic uncertainty has attracted much recent attention. Policymakers repeatedly emphasise uncertainty as a key factor driving the last two recessions – in particular the depth and length of the Great Recession. This column proposes asymmetric hiring rules as a mechanism that generates endogenous and joint movements in macro and micro volatility of employment growth.

Advanced economies’ sovereign debt: 100 years of data
S. M. Ali Abbas, Laura Blattner, Mark De Broeck, Asmaa El-Ganainy & Malin Hu (VoxEU) Oct 26, 2014
There has been renewed interest in sovereign debt since the Global Crisis, but relatively little attention has been paid to its composition. Sovereign debt can differ in terms of the currency it is denominated in, its maturity, its marketability, and who holds it – and these characteristics matter for debt sustainability. This column presents evidence from a new dataset on the composition of sovereign debt over the past century in 13 advanced economies.

Stress tests will not cure the eurozone Financial Times Subscription Required
Gavyn Davies (FT) Oct 27, 2014
A dysfunctional banking system should no longer be fatal for growth.

Trade negotiators should own up to their ambition Financial Times Subscription Required
Pascal Lamy (FT) Oct 27, 2014
Consumers fear the transatlantic pact will cost them their safeguards.

Mexico: Caught in the crossfire Financial Times Subscription Required
Jude Webber (FT) Oct 27, 2014
Security woes are threatening to ruin President Enrique Peña Nieto’s record of success.

Avoiding the Global Slowdown Blues Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Michael J. Boskin (WSJ) Oct 27, 2014
Despite jitters about where the U.S. is headed, there are specific steps we can take to ensure even stronger growth.

Smarter, greener, healthier and more productive: The new old
Tobias Vogt and Fanny Kluge (OECD Insights) Oct 27, 2014
Ageing populations are a threat to the sustainability of modern societies.

Europe's Banking Union Starts on an Encouraging Note
Nicolas Véron (PIIE) Oct 27, 2014
Sunday, October 26 was D-Day for Europe's banks: At noon in Frankfurt, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the results of its "comprehensive assessment" of the euro area's 130 largest banks, including an Asset Quality Review (AQR) and stress tests. Simultaneously in London, the European Banking Authority (EBA) announced the results of these stress tests for a larger sample of banks, including the largest banks headquartered in the European Union but outside the euro area.

Europe's Rules? Forget About Them
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Oct 27, 2014
The rest of the world has it all wrong: The EU isn't obsessing about rules. Just look at the leaders of France and the UK.

A New World Emerges
Globalist Oct 27, 2014
The Globalist Quiz asks: Which major economy was recently overtaken by an emerging one? France? Japan? UK? Germany?

Europe's Banks Are Still a Threat
Bloomberg View Oct 27, 2014
Europe's latest bank stress tests are a big improvement over previous efforts, which were widely derided as too soft, but still not good enough.

What Europe's Stress Tests Will and Won't Do
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 27, 2014
The European Central Bank calls out weak banks and puts economic integration on a solid track. The next steps are up to politicians, writes Mohamed A. El-Erian.

It's Time to Give China Some Time
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 27, 2014
Investors need to stop obsessing over every zig and zag in China's growth rate as if it were a big company that needs to impress us.

Britain’s Last EU Straw?
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Oct 27, 2014
The EU's recalculation of member states' budget contributions has fueled anti-EU resentment, especially in the UK, at a time when euroskepticism is already riding high. Indeed, the arbitrary nature of EU budget setting is likely to aggravate existing tensions.

The Era of Disorder
Richard N. Haass (Project Syndicate) Oct 27, 2014
Historical eras are difficult to recognize before they end. We can recognize the post-Cold War period of American preeminence, increased prosperity, and widespread peace as a distinct era, because a new and more menacing epoch has begun.

The Years of Living Tactically
Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) Oct 27, 2014
The biggest risk to global security today lies in the failure of the West to formulate a comprehensive strategy to address global challenges and manage the transition to a new multipolar system. The reason for this failure is simple: the West has allowed short-term tactical concerns to impede the development of a long-term vision.

China's Third Era: The End of Reform, Growth, and Stability
Gordon G. Chang (WA) Oct 27, 2014
After Mao and Deng Xiaoping, the People’s Republic of China has now entered its third era, a period to be marked by economic decline, political turbulence, and external belligerence.

Exploding wealth inequality in the United States
Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman (VoxEU) Oct 27, 2014
Wealth inequality in the US has followed a U-shaped evolution over the last century – there was a substantial democratisation of wealth from the Great Depression to the late 1970s, followed by a sharp rise in wealth inequality. This column discusses new evidence on the concentration of wealth in the US. Growing wealth disparity is fuelled by increases in both income and saving rate inequalities between the haves and the have nots.

Europe’s banks too feeble to spur growth Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 28, 2014
One doubts whether the capital in eurozone institutions is enough to drive the economy forward.

Hungary’s illiberal democracy flourishes Financial Times Subscription Required
George Szirtes (FT) Oct 28, 2014
Two steps forward, one step back – it is a familiar dance of the Fidesz party.

BEA’s relationships prowess blocks offers Financial Times Subscription Required
Jennifer Hughes (FT) Oct 28, 2014
Bank of East Asia is a near-perfect example of tangled ties that drive so much business in Asia.

Why Germany needs to start spending Financial Times Subscription Required
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (FT) Oct 28, 2014
Huge excess of savings over investment will drag Europe into deflation spiral.

Rousseff’s Global Challenge: Do Better Than India
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Oct 28, 2014
With Modi, India got a new life politically. What about Brazil?

Dilma Redux: Or Move Closer to US?
Johanna Mendelson Forman (Globalist) Oct 28, 2014
Brazil, like the United States, is now polarized politically, with two irreconcilable halves.

Currencies Flag More Volatility Ahead
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 28, 2014
October has savaged returns in the investment community; volatility in the currency market suggests the whiplash may continue.

Turn On the Taps in India
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Oct 28, 2014
With inflation tamed and the economy in the doldrums, it's time for India's central bank to open up the taps.

ECB Buys the Wrong Kind of Bonds
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 28, 2014
As the euro region's economic backdrop worsens, the pressure on the European Central Bank to add government bonds to its shopping list is growing.

Optimizing the Eurozone
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Oct 28, 2014
The eurozone is facing a bleak economic outlook, with growth remaining stagnant and the threat of deflation looming large. Its prospects will not improve unless and until it becomes the “optimal currency area” that its creators believed it to be.

Last Chance for Japan?
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Oct 28, 2014
Notwithstanding all of the fanfare surrounding “Abenomics,” Japan’s economy remains moribund. But if Japan pays greater attention to likely shifts in the Chinese and US economies, it could be one the greatest beneficiaries of their coming rebalancing.

Mexico’s Powerful Energy Reforms
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Oct 28, 2014
Mexico's recent reform of its energy sector completes the agenda of economic integration that began when the North American Free Trade Agreement was approved in 1994. Now the country is poised to become Latin America’s economic star in the decade ahead.

Learning to Love China's New Superbank
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 28, 2014
The U.S. has good reason to be wary of China's new infrastructure superbank -- and just as good reason to try and join it.

Indonesia’s Jokowi can outdo Obama Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) Oct 29, 2014
Widodo will need all the acumen that took him to the presidency to avoid the traps being set.

Largest economies must fix the eurozone Financial Times Subscription Required
Olli Rehn and Jean Arthuis (FT) Oct 29, 2014
Only peer pressure, opprobrium and fear will shake leaders up.

The fiendish bond market needs a rethink Financial Times Subscription Required
Stephen Foley (FT) Oct 29, 2014
Standardised products are likely to attract more demand.

‘Coffin corner’ threat to stability Financial Times Subscription Required
Satyajit Das (FT) Oct 29, 2014
Post-crisis regulation makes markets more vulnerable to shocks.

Russian oil: Between a rock and a hard place Financial Times Subscription Required
Jack Farchy (FT) Oct 29, 2014
It has the largest reserves of shale oil in the world but as sanctions bite, can Moscow exploit them?

Enough With European Austerity, Bring on the Stimulus Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) Oct 29, 2014
Germany isn’t such a success story. Its GDP growth is a paltry 2.2% over 2008-13. Time for Merkel to budge.

The QE Record Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ Oct 29, 2014
The end of Fed bond buying is not the end of monetary easing.

Whither Europe's Banks after the Stress Test?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Oct 29, 2014
The new comprehensive assessement of the European banking sector—including the "stress tests" of banks—was released in late October and made headlines by highlighting progress toward solvency and health in the banking system. But the tests also underscored concerns that many banks will need more capital and a more profitable business model to survive in the future.

How to Give Japan a Second Wind
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Oct 29, 2014
Pundits can debate how real Shinzo Abe's "third arrow" reforms are. But what Japan really needs is a fourth arrow.

Tunisia Needs an Economic Revolution
Bloomberg View Oct 29, 2014
Tunisia's political success may not last if the country doesn't quickly get to grips with reforming its economy.

Belindia Has Spoken
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Oct 29, 2014
Forty years ago, the Brazilian economist Edmar Bacha named his country Belindia: a combination of prosperous and modern Belgium and poor and backward India. Is the winner of last Sunday's presidential election, the incumbent Dilma Rousseff, really from "India"?

Europe: Building a Banking Union
Stratfor Oct 29, 2014
The recent stress tests by the European Central Bank offered few surprises and did not cause any significant political or financial reactions in the Continent. However, these tests were only the beginning of a complex process to build a banking union in the European Union. Unlike the stress tests, the next steps in this project could create more divisions in Europe because national parliaments will be involved at a time when Euroskepticism is on the rise. More important, the stress tests will not have a particular impact on Europe's main problem: tight credit conditions for households and businesses. Without a substantial improvement in credit conditions, there cannot be a substantial economic recovery, particularly in the eurozone periphery.

Making sense of ECB’s comprehensive assessment
Viral Acharya and Sascha Steffen (VoxEU) Oct 29, 2014
The ECB conducted a comprehensive assessment of banks and identified capital shortfalls for 25 banks, totalling €25 billion. In this column, the authors provide a number of benchmark stress tests to estimate capital shortfalls. The analyses suggest possible capital shortfalls between €80 billion and more than €700 billion depending on the model. They find a negative correlation between their benchmark estimates and the regulatory capital shortfall, and a positive one between the benchmarks and the regulatory estimates of losses. This suggests that regulatory stress test outcomes are potentially affected by the discretion of national regulators.

Global imbalances: Whither now?
Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Marco E Terrones & Juan Yépez (VoxEU) Oct 29, 2014
Global current-account imbalances narrowed substantially over the past eight years. As a result, the systemic risks associated with these imbalances have decreased. This column argues that despite this narrowing, the net creditor and debtor positions diverged further. Some large debtor economies remain exposed to changes in market confidence. Containing remaining imbalances requires a rebalance in global demand.

Why Taxation Must Go Global
Wolfgang Schäuble (Project Syndicate) Oct 30, 2014
While business no longer knows any borders, taxation has remained stuck in the era of the nation-state. The resulting tensions between fiscal sovereignty and globalization can be resolved only through international standards and regulation.

Africa's Largest Free Trade Area Set to Launch in December
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 36 Oct 30, 2014
The planned Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) – a zone that would be the largest free trade area in Africa and span across the continent's three main regional economic communities (RECs) – is now set to launch in mid-December at the Tripartite Summit of Heads of State and Government in Cairo, Egypt.

EU Leaders Reach Deal on Proposed 2030 Climate, Energy Goals
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 36 Oct 30, 2014
EU heads of state and government reached a political agreement late last week on a new climate and energy policy framework for 2030.

US, Mexico Announce Draft Deal on Sugar Trade Probes
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 36 Oct 30, 2014
US and Mexican officials announced on Monday that they had reached draft deals that could – if finalised – resolve a contentious row between Washington and Mexico City over sugar trade.

TPP Ministers: Shape of Trade Deal "Crystallising" Following Sydney Meet
Bridges, Volume 18, Number 36 Oct 30, 2014
Ministers from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries concluded a three-day meeting in Sydney, Australia on Monday, citing "significant progress" in their negotiations on both market access and on trade and investment rules.

Rethinking Hunger
Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Project Syndicate) Oct 30, 2014
Though great strides have been made toward the Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of undernourished people in developing countries, the problem remains pervasive. The challenge is not just to provide more food, but to ensure that people have access to the nutrients they need to live healthy, productive lives.

The U.S. Should Not Fear Competing With China
Amitai Etzioni (Diplomat) Oct 30, 2014
With the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the U.S. should not be afraid of a little healthy competition.

Reflections on the new 'Secular Stagnation hypothesis'
Lawrence Summers (VoxEU) Oct 30, 2014
The notion that Europe and other advanced economies are suffering secular stagnation is gaining traction. This column by Larry Summers – first published in the Vox eBook “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures” – explains the idea. It argues that a decline in the full-employment real interest rate coupled with low inflation could indefinitely prevent the attainment of full employment.

Regulating capital flows at both ends
Atish R Ghosh, Mahvash Saeed Qureshi and Naotaka Sugawara (VoxEU) Oct 30, 2014
Capital flows to emerging markets have been very volatile since the global financial crisis. This has kindled debates on whether – and how – to better manage cross-border capital flows. In this column, the authors examine the role of capital account restrictions in both source and recipient countries in taming destabilising capital flows. The results indicate that capital account restrictions at either end can significantly lower the volume of cross-border flows.

China’s Imperial President Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Elizabeth C. Economy (FA) Nov 1, 2014
Chinese President Xi Jinping has articulated a simple but powerful vision: the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. It is a patriotic call to arms, drawing inspiration from the glories of China’s imperial past and the ideals of its socialist present to promote political unity at home and influence abroad. After just two years in office, Xi has advanced himself as a transformative leader, adopting an agenda that proposes to reform, if not revolutionize, political and economic relations not only within China but also with the rest of the world.

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