Welcome to International Financial Crises. This page is dedicated the study of financial crises, especially currency and banking crises. It is a part of the International Economics Network.
Since the 1980s, the march of globalisation and concomitant increases in flows of capital and trade have led to high volatility in international financial markets. Some of these have erupted into crises, in the form of runs on banks - both national and multinational - as well as attacks on currencies. Resultant effects have included the significant increase in contagion and the collapse of both venerable private banks as well as national institutions. Whereas research on specific episodes of currency crises are better found elsewhere, this page is more general in nature and collects research on the phenomenon of financial crises.
The literature is constantly expanding, and it can be impossible to maintain an updated list of all contributions in the field. Hence, I would appreciate any suggestions and/or nominations (drop the 'spam' at the end of the address), even if the work should be your own. Given variations in individual judgement and the difficulty in divorcing the different elements of the subject matter, there is necessary some overlap in the (admittedly) artificial taxonomy that has been applied to organise the various works into manageable headings.
Financial Crises in Emerging Markets
Theoretical Studies & Models of Currency Collapse
Financial Crises
The Golembe Reports Library
The Macroeconomics of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition
Abstract: For many years it was fashionable to treat macroeconomics and microeconomics as separate subjects without looking too deeply at the relationship between the two. But in the 1970s there occurred an episode of high inflation and high unemployment, which was inconsistent with orthodox theory. As a result, macroeconomists began to pay much greater attention to the microfoundations of their subject. In this book Roger E. A. Farmer takes a somewhat controversial point of view, arguing for the future of macroeconomics as a branch of applied general equilibrium theory. His main theme is that macroeconomics is best viewed as the study of equilibrium environments in which the welfare theorems break down. This approach makes it possible to discuss the role of government policies in a context in which policy may serve some purpose. Since the publication of the first edition in 1993, self-fulfilling prophecies has become a major competitor to the real business-cycle view of economic fluctuations. The second edition has been updated in three ways: (1) problems are included at the end of every chapter, and a study guide containing sample answers to all of the problems is available; (2) a new chapter discusses research from the past five years on business fluctuations in multisector models; and (3) the chapter on representative agent growth models now includes an appendix that explains the transversality condition.
In Defense of Free Capital Markets
Asset Price Bubbles: The Implications for Monetary, Regulatory, and International Policies
Financial Crises, Liquidity, and the International Monetary System
Abstract: Once upon a time, economists saw capital account liberalization--the free and unrestricted flow of capital in and out of countries--as unambiguously good. Good for debtor states, good for the world economy. No longer. Spectacular banking and currency crises in recent decades--from Latin America in the early 1980s to Scandinavia a decade later to Mexico, Southeast Asia, Russia, and, quite lately, Argentina--have shattered the consensus. In this remarkably clear and pithy volume, one of Europe's leading economists examines these crises, the reforms being undertaken to prevent them, and how global financial institutions might be restructured to this end. Jean Tirole first analyzes the current views on the crises and on the reform of the international financial architecture. Reform proposals often treat the symptoms rather than the fundamentals, he argues, and sometimes fail to reconcile the objectives of setting effective financing conditions while ensuring that a country "owns" its reform program. A proper identification of market failures is essential to reformulating the mission of an institution such as the IMF, he emphasizes. Next he adapts the basic principles of corporate governance, liquidity provision, and risk management of corporations to the particulars of country borrowing. Building on a "dual- and common-agency perspective," he revisits commonly advocated policies and considers how multilateral organizations can help debtor countries reap enhanced benefits while liberalizing their capital accounts.
Capital Flows and Crises
Abstract: The implications of capital mobility for growth and stability are some of the most contentious and least understood contemporary issues in economics. In this book Barry Eichengreen discusses historical, theoretical, empirical, and policy aspects of the effects, both positive and negative, of capital flows. He focuses on the connections between capital flows and crises as well as on those between capital flows and growth. Eichengreen argues that international financial liberalization, like other forms of economic liberalization, can positively affect the efficiency of resource allocation and the rate of economic growth. But analyses of both recent and historical experience also show an undeniable association between capital mobility and crises, especially when domestic institutions are weak and the harmonization of capital account liberalization and other policy reforms is inadequate. In his conclusion, Eichengreen makes suggestions for policy design to maximize the benefits of international financial liberalization while minimizing the risks of financial instability.
Turbulent Waters: Cross-Border Finance and International Governance
IMF Essays from a Time of Crisis: The International Financial System, Stabilization, and Development
Abstract: The first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund during the international crises of the last decade reflects on international monetary policy and the role of the IMF.
From Capital Surges to Drought: Seeking Stability for Emerging Economies
Abstract: This book analyzes the new trends in capital flows to emerging markets since the Asian crisis, their determinants and policy implications. It explains why such flows have declined so dramatically in recent years, emphasising both structural and cyclical factors. Senior bankers, regulators, and well-known academics explain the behaviour of different players. The book breaks new ground by showing in detail how such behaviour has contributed to the decline of flows and their volatility. The book suggests what coping mechanisms developing countries could adopt to deal with crisis situations; what measures should be taken at the national and international levels to make recipient countries less vulnerable to international financial instability; how such instability can be reduced; and what can be done on the source countries to encourage larger more stable capital flows to developing countries.
Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies
Abstract: Roughly once a year, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. treasury secretary and in some cases the finance ministers of other G-7 countries will get a call from the finance minister of a large emerging market economy. The emerging market finance minister will indicate that the country is rapidly running out of foreign reserves, that it has lost access to international capital markets and, perhaps, that is has lost the confidence of its own citizens. Without a rescue loan, it will be forced to devalue its currency and default either on its government debt or on loans to the country’s banks that the government has guaranteed. This book looks at these situations and the options available to alleviate the problem. It argues for a policy that recognizes that every crisis is different and that different cases need to be handled within a framework that provides consistency and predictability to borrowing countries as well as those who invest in their debt.
Crisis Prevention and Prosperity Management for the World Economy: Pragmatic Choices for International Financial Governance I
Financial Crises: Lessons from the Past, Preparation for the Future
Abstract: Throughout the 1990s, numerous financial crises rocked the world financial sector. The Asian bubble burst, for example; Argentina and Brazil suffered currency crises; and the post-Soviet economy bottomed out in Russia. In Financial Crises, a distinguished group of economists and policy analysts examine and draw lessons from attempts to recover from past crises. They also consider some potential hazards facing the world economy in the 21st century and discuss ways to avoid them and minimize the severity of any future downturn.
Emerging Capital Markets in Turmoil: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?
Abstract: Analysis of financial crises in emerging market economies, including Mexico, Argentina, and Russia; traces the evolution of crisis theory and challenges the conventional wisdom.
Banking crises in emerging economies: origins and policy options
Is our Current International Economic Environment Unusually Crisis Prone?
Transparency, Liberalization and Financial Crises
Who Recovers First? Banking Crisis Resolution in Developing Countries
Solvency Runs, Sunspot Runs, and International Bailouts | Published
Banking Crises and Exchange Rate Regimes: Is There a Link? | Published
Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation
On the welfare gains of reducing the likelihood of economic crises
Development Financing during a Crisis: Securitization of Future Receivables
Currency Crises and the Real Economy - The Role of Banks
Has 1997 Asian Crisis Increased Information Flows Between International Markets?
Domestic Bank Regulation and Financial Crises: Theory and Empirical Evidence from East Asia
The interbank market during a crisis
Financial Restructuring in Banking and Corporate Sector Crises: What Policies to Pursue?
Post-Resolution Treatment of Depositors at Failed Banks: Implications for the Severity of Banking Crises, Systemic Risk, and Too-Big-To-Fail
Labor, financial crises, and globalization
Financial Liberalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Economies | Published
The Market for Crash Risk
Financial Contagion Through Capital Connections: A Model of the Origin and Spread of Bank Panics
Abstract: Financial contagion is modeled as an equilibrium phenomenon in a dynamic setting with incomplete information and multiple banks. The equilibrium probability of bank failure is uniquely determined. We explore how the cross holding of deposits motivated by imperfectly correlated regional liquidity shocks can lead to contagious effects conditional on the failure of a financial institution. We show that contagious bank failure occurs with positive probability in the unique equilibrium of the economy and demonstrate that the presence of such contagion risk can lead to endogenously incomplete insurance against liquidity shocks.
Moral Hazard and International Crisis Lending: A Test
Financial Instability and Monetary Regulation
Systemic Financial Crises, Balance Sheets, and Model Uncertainity
Financial Institutions, Financial Contagion, and Financial Crises
Foreign Currency Credit Ratings for Emerging Market Economies
Financial Liberalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Economies
Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence
Post-Resolution Treatment of Depositors at Failed Banks: Implications for the Severity of Banking Crises, Systemic Risk, and Too-Big-To-Fail
Corporate Governance in the Asian Financial Crisis
Financial Crises, Poverty, and Income Distribution
Managing the Real and Fiscal Effects of Banking Crises
Common determinants of bond and stock market liquidity: the impact of financial crises, monetary policy, and mutual fund flows
Banking, financial integration, and international crises : an overview
Financial Crises, Financial Dependence, and Industry Growth
Monetary Policy in a Financial Crisis
Excessive Risk-Taking, Banking Sector Fragility, and Banking Crises
Exchange rate regimes and financial dollarization: does flexibility reduce bank currency mismatches?
Web Resources
The NBER has gathered all material written by its associates into a convenient resource location. Many of these working papers have formed the basis for published papers in the field.
Part of the Global Macroeconomic and Financial Policy website: other related collections here are Empirical Papers on Crises, Crisis Resolution, Studies of Contagion, Capital Controls, and Banking Crises.
World Bank studies on financial crises. The Bank also researches on Contagion and International Capital Flows.
The focus of the Golembe Report is mainly on U.S. financial policy; occasional reports do address banking crises. Unfortunately, the library only contains summaries of the actual reports.
Print Resources
Farmer, R. (1999)
De Rosa, David (2000)
Hunter, W.C., G.G. Kaufman & M. Pomerleano (editors) (2003)
Tirole, J. (2002)
Eichengreen, B. (2003)
Bryant, R.C. (2003)
Fischer, S. (2004)
Ffrench-Davis, R. & S. Griffith-Jones (editors) (2004)
Roubini, N. & B. Setser (2004)
Bryant, R.C. (2004)
CONFERENCE VOLUME
Caprio, G., J.A. Hanson & R.E. Litan (editors) (2005)
Calvo, G.A. (2005)
Banking & Financial Crises
Goldstein, M. & P. Turner (1996)
Bordo, M. & B. Eichengreen (1999)
Mehrez, G. & D. Kaufmann (1999)
Montinola, G. (2000)
Spiegel, M.M. (2000)
Domac, I., M.S.M. Peria (2000)
Detragiache, E. & A. Spilimbergo (2001)
Chatterjee, S. & D. Corbae (2001)
Ketkar, S. & D. Ratha (2001)
Disyatat, P. (2001)
Climent, F.J. & V. Meneu (2001)
Dekle, R. & K.M. Kletzer (2001)
Furfine, C. (2001)
Claessens, S., D. Klingebiel & L. Laeven (2001)
Kaufman, G.G. & S.A. Seelig (2001)
Diwan, I. (2001)
Daniel, B.C. & J.B. Jones (2001/07)
Bates, D.S. (2001)
Dasgupta, A. (2001)
Dell'Ariccia, G., I. Gödde & J. Zettelmeyer (2001)
Aglietta , M. (2001)
Stone, M.R. & M. Weeks (2001)
Huang, H. & C. Xu (2001)
Mulder, C.B. & R. Perrelli (2001)
Daniel, B. & J.B. Jones (2001)
Eichengreen, B. & C. Arteta (2001)
Kaufman, G.G. & S.A. Seelig (2001)
Johnson, S., P. Boone, A. Breach & E. Friedman (2001)
Baldacci, E., L.R. De Mello Jr. & M.G. Inchauste Comboni (2002)
Claessens, S., D. Klingebiel, L. Laeven, P. Honohan & G. Caprio (2002)
Chordia, T., A. Sarkar & A. Subrahmanyam (2002)
REVIEW PAPER
Hernández, L. & K. Schmidt-Hebbel (2002)
Laeven, L., D. Klingebiel & R. Kroszner (2002)
Christiano, L.J., C. Gust & J. Roldos (2002)
Kibritcioglu, A. (2002)
Crisis Prevention and Crisis Management: The Role of Regulatory Governance
Das, U.S. & M.G. Quintyn (2002)
Bedfellows, Hostages, or Perfect Strangers? Global Capital Markets and the Catalytic Effect of IMF Crisis Lending
Cottarelli, C. & C. Giannini (2002)
Liquidity provision vs. deposit insurance: Preventing bank panics without moral hazard?
Martin, A. (2002)
Decentralized Creditor-Led Corporate Restructuring: Cross-Country Experience
Dado, M. & D. Klingebiel (2002)
"Original Sin," Balance Sheet Crises and the Roles of International Lending
Zettelmeyer, J. & O. Jeanne (2003)
Gaucho Banking Redux
della Paolera, G. & A.M. Taylor (2003)
Availability of Financial Soundness Indicators
REVIEW PAPER
Slack, G. (2003)
Financial Crises as Herds: Overturning the Critiques | Published
Chari, V.V. & P.J. Kehoe (2003)
Economic growth, liquidity, and bank runs
Ennis, H. & T. Keister (2003)
Bank Concentration and Crises | Alternative | Published
Beck, T., A. Demirgüç-Kunt, and R. Levine (2003/06)
Abstract: Motivated by public policy debates about bank consolidation and conflicting theoretical predictions about the relationship between the market structure of the banking industry and bank fragility, this paper studies the impact of bank concentration, bank regulations, and national institutions on the likelihood of suffering a systemic banking crisis. Using data on 70 countries from 1980 to 1997, we find that crises are less likely in economies with (i) more concentrated banking systems, (ii) fewer regulatory restrictions on bank competition and activities, and (iii) national institutions that encourage competition.
Transparency, Risk Management and International Finacial Fragility
Draghi, M., F. Giavazzi & R.C. Merton (2003)
Propping and Tunneling
Friedman, E., S. Johnson & T. Mitton (2003)
Debt maturity structure with pre-emptive creditors
Gai, P. & H.S. Shin (2003)
Liberalization, Growth and Financial Crises | Alternative
Tornell, A., F. Westermann & L. Martinez (2003)
Crisis in Competitive versus Monopolistic Banking Systems
Boyd, J.H., G. De Nicolo & B.D. Smith (2003)
Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters
Eichengreen, B., R. Hausmann & U. Panizza (2003)
On the welfare gains of eliminating a small likelihood of economic crises: A case for stabilization policies?
Chatterjee, S. & D. Corbae (2003)
Financial Instability under Floating Exchange Rates
Vranceanu, R. & D. Besancenot (2003)
Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises
Diamond, D.W. & R.G. Rajan (2003)
Crises and Growth: A Re-Evaluation
Ranciere, R., A. Tornell & F. Westermann (2003)
Systematic Financial Distress: Containment and Resolution
CONFERENCE VOLUME
Various Authors (2003)
Abstract: The resolution of a systemic financial crisis involves many policy choices ranging from macroeconomic (including monetary and fiscal policy) to microeconomic (including recapitalization of financial institutions, closure, capital adequacy rules and corporate governance requirements), with reforms varying in depth. These choices involve tradeoffs, including the amount of government resources needed to resolve the crisis, the speed of recovery, and the recovery’s sustainability. Despite considerable analysis, these tradeoffs are not well known—an oversight that leads to conflicting policy advice and larger than necessary economic costs. Even less is known about the political economy factors that make governments choose certain policies. Policies enacted during crises importantly shape the financial sector and have important long-term impact on financial sector development. The objective of this conference on “Systemic Financial Distress: Containment and Resolution” is to discuss and add to existing knowledge about the tradeoffs involved in policies related to systemic financial restructuring and to review how policies have been used. The conference complements the World Bank’s Global Bank Insolvency Initiative where the focus is more on the legal and institutional aspects of bank insolvency, not necessarily being of systemic importance. The conference proceedings will be published in a book.
Bank Portfolio Restrictions and Equilibrium Bank Runs
Shell, K. & J. Peck (2003)
International Financial Crises
Dornbusch, R. & S. Fischer (2003)
Abstract: Our friend and colleague Rudiger Dornbusch passed away before he was able to complete his book based on the Munich Lectures in Economics that he gave in November 17, 1998, at the Center for Economic Studies of Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet. The lectures contain a fascinating overview of the mechanics and history of international financial crises showing the breadth and ingenuity of this eminent scholar. The lectures were lively and provocative, full of important insights and observations. Interestingly enough, Dornbusch expressed a substantial mistrust in the actions of political decision makers, supervisory agencies and central banks in the game that leads to the crisis and even collapse of financial systems, and he advocated supranational supervisory actions as a remedy. CES has decided to prepare a transcript of the lectures, which are also available in the Internet as full length-videos. I am grateful to Paul Kremmel for his assistance.
Government Guarantees, Investment, and Vulnerability to Financial Crises
Irwin, G. & D. Vines (2003)
Banks, Liquidity Crises and Economic Growth
Gaytan, A. & R. Ranciere (2003)
Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises | Published
Schneider, M. & A. Tornell (2003)
Improving the Availability of Trade Finance during Financial Crises
Auboin, M. & M. Meier-Ewert (2003)
Distributional Effects of Crises: The Role of Financial Transfers
Halac, M. & S. Schmukler (2003)
The Effects of Financial Crises on International Trade
Ma, Z. & L. Cheng (2003)
Financial Crises and the Presence of Foreign Banks
Tschoegl, A.E. (2003)
Characterizing Global Investors' Risk Appetite for Emerging Market Debt During Financial Crises
Dungey, M., R. Fry, B. Gonzalez-Hermosillo & V. Martin (2003)
Fundamentals, Panics, and Bank Distress During the Depression
Calomiris, C.W. & J.R. Mason (2004)
Lending booms, sharp reversals and real exchange rate dynamics
Gopinath, G. (2004)
Currency crises and contingent liabilities
Burnside, C. (2004)
Financial Development and the Instability of Open Economies | Published
Aghion, P., P. Bacchetta & A. Banerjee (2004)
Abstract: This paper introduces a framework for analyzing the role of financial factors as a source of instability in small open economies. Our basic model is a dynamic open economy model with a tradeable good produced with capital and a country-specific factor. We also assume that firms face credit constraints, with the constraint being tighter at a lower level of financial development. A basic implication of this model is that economies at an intermediate level of financial development are more unstable than either very developed or very underdeveloped economies. This is true both in the sense that temporary shocks have large and persistent effects and also in the sense that these economies can exhibit cycles. Thus, countries that are going through a phase of financial development may become more unstable in the short run. Similarly, full capital account liberalization may destabilize the economy in economies at an intermediate level of financial development: phases of growth with capital inflows are followed by collapse with capital outflows. On the other hand, foreign direct investment does not destabilize.
Timing of International Bailouts
Kim, S-J. (2004)
Liquidity and Financial Market Runs
Bernardo A.E. & I. Welch (2004)
Rational Speculation, Financial Crises, and Optimal Policy Responses
Surti, J. (2004)
Slow Recoveries
Bergoeing, R., N. Loayzaw & A. Repetto (2004)
Abstract: Economies respond differently to aggregate shocks that reduce output. While some countries rapidly recover their pre-crisis trend, others stagnate. Recent studies provide empirical support for a link between aggregate growth and plant dynamics through its effect on productivity: the entry and exit of firms and the reallocation of resources from less to more efficient firms explain a relevant part of transitional productivity dynamics. In this paper we use a stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms to study the effect on aggregate short-run growth of policies that distort the process of birth, growth and death of firms, as well as the reallocation of resources across economic units. Our findings show that indeed policies that alter plant dynamics can explain slow recoveries. We also find that output losses associated to delayed recoveries are large.
Liquidity, Efficiency, and Bank Bailouts
Gorton, G. & L. Huang (2004)
Bank Runs and Investment Decisions Revisited | Published
Keister, T. & H.M. Ennis (2004/06)
Currency mismatch, uncertainty and debt maturity structure
Bussière, M., M. Fratzscher & W. Koeniger (2004)
Abstract: The academic literature has so far little to say about the underlying causes of the large structural asset and liability imbalances of emerging markets that frequently contributed to financial crises. The aim of the paper is to contribute to filling this gap by proposing a theoretical model that links currency and maturity mismatches with real volatility in the economy. We show that if (i) a significant share of the debt is denominated in foreign currency-creating a currency mismatch- and (ii) borrowing is constrained by solvency, then currency mismatch can create and exacerbate a maturity mismatch. An important feature of the model is that higher economic or political uncertainty tightens solvency constraints and tilts the debt profile towards short term debt, thereby increasing the volatility of output. Taking the model implications to the data, we find empirical support for the model’s predictions using data for 28 emerging market economies.
Market imperfections and the instability of open economies
Meng, Q. & A. Velasco (2004)
Resolving Systemic Financial Crises: Policies and Institutions
Klingebiel, D., S. Claessens & L. Laeven (2004)
Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?
Broner, F., G. Lorenzoni & S. Schmukler (2004)
Bailouts and Bank Runs in a Model of Crony Capitalism
Femminis, G. & L. Ruggerone (2004)
Market Discipline under Systemic Risk: Evidence from Bank Runs in Emerging Economies
Levy Yeyati, E., M.S.M. Peria & S. Schmukler (2004)
Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises
Ho, T-K. & J. von Hagen (2004)
The efficient resolution of capital account crises: how to avoid moral hazard
Irwin, G. & D. Vines (2004)
Financial Liberalization, Banking Crises and Growth: Assessing the Links
Bonfiglioli, A. & C. Mendicino (2004)
Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity and Volatility
Angeletos, G-M. & I. Werning (2004)
Information Dynamics and Equilibrium Multiplicity in Global Games of Regime Change
Angeletos, G-M., C. Hellwig & A. Pavan (2004)
Managing Confidence in Emerging Market Bank Runs
Kim, S-J. & A. Mody (2004)
Systemic Crises and Growth
Ranciere, R., A. Tornell & F. Westermann (2005)
Policies for Banking Crises: A Theoretical Framework
Repullo, R. (2005)
Financial Crises, 1880-1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt | Published
Bordo, M. & C. Meissner (2005/06)
The Real Effect of Banking Crises
Dell'Aricia, G., E. Detragiache & R. Rajan (2005)
Aftermath of banking crises: Effects on real and monetary variables
Gupta, P. (2005)
Abstract: This paper models the effects of a banking crisis, and in particular distinguishes between a short-term crisis, such as a banking panic, and a longer-term crisis, such as a banking insolvency. Using an optimizing framework, it shows that depositors shift from deposits into cash in both types of crises, which results in an increase in the interest rates on deposits and loans, and a contraction in output and consumption. However, when the crisis is resolved in a finite time period, there is an intertemporal substitution of consumption, and consumption is postponed until the crisis is resolved. This in turn results in a further decline in the demand for money, availability of credit and output.
Do Risk Premia Protect from Banking Crises?
Gersbach, H. & J. Wenzelburger (2005)
Private sector involvement in the resolution of financial crises: How do markets react?
Tillmann, P. (2005)
Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?
Martin, P. & H. Rey (2005)
Banking Sector Crisis and Inequality
Honohan, P. (2005)
Maturity Matches and Financial Crises: Evidence from Emerging Market Corporations
Bleakley, H. & K. Cowan (2005)
Synchronization of Financial Crises
Dungey, M., J.P.A.M. Jacobs & Lestano (2005)
The 35 Most Tumultuous Years in Monetary History: Shocks, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Trauma
Aliber, R.Z. (2005)
Banking Sector Strength and the Transmission of Currency Crises
Bruinshoofd, A., B. Candelon & K. Raabe (2005)
Trade Credit and Bank Credit: Evidence from Recent Financial Crises
Preve, L.A., I. Love & V. Sarria-Allende (2005)
Corporate bankruptcies and official bail-outs: A cost–benefit analysis
Kenca, T., A. Ozkanb & F.G. Ozkan (2005)
The Effect of Banking Crisis on Bank-Dependent Borrowers
Chava, S. & A.K. Prunanandam (2005)
Cash-in-the-Market Pricing and Optimal Bank Bailout Policy
Acharya, V.V. & T. Yorulmazer (2005)
Financial crashes as endogenous jumps: estimation, testing and forecasting
Fernandes, M. (2005)
Crises and Capital Requirements in Banking
Morrison, Alan D.; White, Lucy (2005)
The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997
Bordo, M.D. & C.M. Meissner (2005)
Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises | Published
Calvo, G.A., A. Izquierdo & E. Talvi (2006)
Money and Modern Banking without Bank Runs
Skeie, D.R. (2006)
Abstract: In the literature, bank runs take the form of withdrawals of real demand deposits that deplete a fixed reserve of goods in the banking system. However, in a modern banking system, large withdrawals take the form of electronic payments that shift balances among banks within a clearinghouse system, with no analog of a depletion of a scarce reserve. In a model of nominal demand deposits repayable in money within a clearinghouse, the author shows that interbank lending and monetary prices imply that traditional bank runs do not occur. This finding suggests that deposit insurance may not be needed to prevent bank runs in a modern economy.
Flight to Quality and Collective Risk Management
Caballero, R. & A. Krishnamurthy (2006)
Banking Crises, Financial Dependence and Growth | Published
Kroszner, R.S., L.A. Laeven & D. Klingebiel (2006/07)
Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress
Demirgüç-Kunt, A., E. Detragiache & P. Gupta (2006)
Bank panics and the endogeneity of central banking
Gorton, G. & L. Huang (2006)
Distance-to-Default in Banking: A Bridge Too Far?
Chan-Lau, J.A. & A.N.R. Sy (2006)
Decomposing the effects of financial liberalization: Crises vs. growth
Ranciere, R., A. Tornell & F. Westermann (2006)
Can Good Events Lead to Bad Outcomes? Endogenous Banking Crises and Fiscal Policy Responses
Feltenstein, A. & C. Rochon (2006)
Trade credit and bank credit: Evidence from recent financial crises
Love, I., L.A. Preve & V. Sarria-Allende (2007)
A Cardan's discriminant approach to predicting currency crashes
Koh, S.K., W.M. Fong & F. Chan (2007)
Responding to Financial Crises
Frankel, J.A. (2007)
Exchange rate regimes, banking and the non-tradable sector
Kawamura, E. (2007)
Suspension of payments, bank failures, and the nonbank public's losses
Dwyer Jr., J.P. & I. Hasan (2007)
Fetters of Debt, Deposit, or Gold during the Great Depression? The International Propagation of the Banking Crisis of 1931
Richardson, G. & P. Van Horn (2007)
Crises and Growth: A Latin American Perspective
Edwards, S. (2007)
Re-Accessing International Capital Markets after Financial Crises: Some Empirical Evidence
Zanforlin, L. (2007)
Stiglitz Versus the IMF on the Asian Debt Crisis: An Intertemporal Model with Real Exchange Rate Overshooting
Kirsanova, T., G. Menzies & D. Vines (2007)
Emerging Market Liquidity and Crises
Levy Yeyati, E., S. Schmukler & N. Van Horen (2007)
Optimal Portfolio Liquidation for CARA Investors
Schied, A. & T. Schöneborn (2007)
The Everyday Social Sources of Economic Crises: From "Great Frustrations" to "Great Revelations" in Interwar Britain
Seabrooke, L. (2007)
Quantifying and understanding the economics of large financial movements
(2007)
Gabaix, X., P. Gopikrishnan, V. Plerou & H.E. Stanley (2007)
GDP at risk in a DSGE model: an application to banking sector stress testing
Jokivuolle, E., J. Kilponen & T. Kuusi (2008)
Financial Innovation, Macroeconomic Stability and Systemic Crises
Gai, P., S. Kapadia, S. Millard & A. Perez (2008)
This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises
Reinhart, C.M. & K.S. Rogoff (2008)
The Anatomy of Banking Crises
Duttagupta, R. & P. Cashin (2008)
Reserve Requirements, the Maturity Structure of Debt, and Bank Runs
Al-Zein, Eza (2008)
Macroeconomic Crises since 1870
Barro, R.J. & J.F. Ursúa (2008)
Financial constraints on investment in an emerging market crisis
Blalock, G., P.J. Gertler & D.I. Levine (2008)
Liquidity runs with endogenous information acquisition
Zwart, S. (2008)
An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data
Mendoza, E.G. & M.E. Terrones (2008)
Bank incentives, economic specialization, and financial crises in emerging economies
Gande, A., K. John & L.W. Senbet (2008)
Bank incentives, contract design and bank runs
Andolfatto, D. & E. Nosal (2008)
Injecting rational bubbles
Kocherlakota, N. (2008)
Bank runs, foreign exchange reserves and credibility: When size does not matter
Miller, V. (2008)
Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database
Laeven, L. & F. Valencia (2008)
A Model of Capital and Crises
He, Z. & A. Krishnamurthy (2008)
The Use of Blanket Guarantees in Banking Crises
Laeven, L. & F. Valencia (2008)
Banks' Precautionary Capital and Credit Crunches
Valencia, F. (2008)
Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market
Khwaja, A.I. & A. Mian (2008)
Borrower runs
Bond, P. & A.S. Rai (2008)
The anatomy of financial crises: Evidence from the emerging ADR market
Pasquariello, P. (2008)
What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?
Claessens, S., M.A. Kose & M. Terrones (2008)
Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace
Reinhart, C.M. & K.S. Rogoff (2008)
Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08
Brunnermeier, M.K. (2008)
Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets
Joyce, J.P. (2008)
Banking regulation and the output cost of banking crises
Angkinand, A.P. (2008)
Banking industry volatility and banking crises
Moshirian, F. & Q. Wu (2008)
The Aftermath of Financial Crises
Reinhart, C.M. & K.S. Rogoff (2009)
External constraint and financial crises with balance sheet effects
Dai, M. (2009)
Fiscal Trends and Self-Fulfilling Crises
Doblas-Madrid, A. (2009)
Deleveraging After Lehman--Evidence from Reduced Rehypothecation
Singh, M. & J. Aitken (2009)
Selective Swap Arrangements and the Global Financial Crisis: Analysis and Interpretation
Aizenman, J. & G.K. Pasricha (2009)
The Revenge of Purchasing Power Parity on Carry Trades during Crises
Brière, M. & B. Drut (2009)
The Crisis: Basic Mechanisms and Appropriate Policies
Blanchard, O.J. (2009)
Fear of Fire Sales and the Credit Freeze
Diamond, D.W. & R.G. Rajan (2009)
Complexity and Financial Panics
Caballero, R.J. & A. Simsek (2009)
Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008
Obstfeld, M., J.C. Shambaugh & A.M. Taylor (2009)
Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007
Gorton, G. (2009)
Is Monetary Policy Effective during Financial Crises?
Mishkin, F.S. (2009)
The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies
Diamond, D.W. & R.G. Rajan (2009)
A Model of a Systemic Bank Run
Uhlig, H. (2009)
Bank runs as coordination failures: An experimental study
Garratt, R. & T. Keister (2009)
Risk Allocation, Debt Fueled Expansion and Financial Crisis
Beaudry, P. & A. Lahiri (2009)
A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises
Krugman, P.R. (1979)
Abstract: This is the seminal paper on the analysis of balance-of-payments crises.
Balance of Payments Crises in a Cash-in-Advance Economy
Calvo, G.A. (1987)
Abstract: The author shows that a flexible-prices, Sidrauski-type model with a cash-in-advance constraint is capable of depicting some of the phenomena associated with a balance of payments crisis, like the onesrecently observed in Argentina and Mexico (current-accounts deficits,and appreciation of the real exchange rat e). It is also shown that these phenomena become exacerbated as the rate of devaluation (before the crisis occurs) becomes smaller.
Explaining Sudden Stop, Growth Collapse, and BOP crisis
Calvo, G. (2002)
Abstract: The paper discusses a model in which growth is a negative function of fiscal burden. Moreover, growth discontinuously switches from high to low as fiscal burden reaches a critical level. Growth collapse is associated with a sudden stop of capital inflows, real depreciation and a drop in output (driven by a fall in the output of nontradables)—all of which have occurred during recent financial crises in emerging markets. The monetary version of the model is employed to show that balance of payments (BOP) crises could be a result of fiscal distortions. In par-ticular, it is further argued that BOP crisis could be a justifiable central bank response to growth col-lapse, although realistic circumstances may make this response highly ineffective. An important policy implication of the model is that in order to avoid sudden stop crises, policymakers should aim at improving fiscal institutions. Lowering the fiscal deficit is highly effective in the medium term, but could be counterproductive in the short run if it relies on higher taxes.
Aftermaths of Current Account Crisis: Export Growth or Import Contraction?
Sturzenegger, F., P. Guidotti & A. Villar (2003)
Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops
Edwards, S. (2004)
Financial Openness, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals | Published
Edwards, S. (2004)
Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?
Eichengreen, B. & M. Adalet (2005)
Current Account Reversals and Growth: The Direct Effect Central and Eastern Europe 1923-2000
Komarek, L., Z. Komarkova & M. Melecky (2006)
Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth: The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets
Komarek, L. & M. Melecky (2006)
Balance of Payments Crises Under Inflation Targeting | Published
Kumhof, M., S. Li & I.K. Yan (2007)
Balance of Payment Crises in Emerging Markets: How Early Were the 'Early' Warning Signals?
Bussiere, M. (2007)
Dynamic Panel Probit Models for Current Account Reversals and their Efficient Estimation
Liesenfeld, R., G.V. Moura & J-F. Richard (2007)
Determinants and Costs of Current Account Reversals under Heterogeneity and Serial Correlation
Assmann, C. (2007)
Inventories, lumpy trade, and large devaluations
Alessandria, G., J. Kaboski & V. Midrigan (2008)
Rapid Current Account Adjustments: Are Microstates Different?
Imam, P.A. (2008)
Did Mergers Help Japanese Mega-Banks Avoid Failure? Analysis of the Distance to Default of Banks
Harada, K. & T. Ito (2008)
Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances
Caballero, R.J., E. Farhi & P-O. Gourinchas (2008)
Coordination Frictions and The Financial Crisis
Gautier, P.A. (2009)
The Dollar in the Turmoil
Benassy-Quere, A., S. Bereau & V. Mignon (2009)
Tropical Bubbles: Asset Prices in Latin America, 1980-2001
Herrera, S. & G. Perry (2001)
Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and The Asian Crisis
Collyns, C.V. & A.S. Senhadji (2002)
Bubbles and Capital Flows
Ventura, J. (2002)
Temporary bubbles
Michel, P. & C. Wigniolle (2003)
Bubbling and Crashing Exchange Rates
Grimaldi, M. & P. De Grauwe (2003)
Shakeouts and Market Crashes | Published
Barbarino, A. & B. Jovanovic (2004/07)
Distinguishing Informational Cascades from Herd Behavior in the Laboratory
Bogachan, C. & S. Kariv (2004)
Riding the South Sea Bubble
Temin, P. & H-J. Voth (2005)
Testing for bubbles and change-points
Kirman, A. & G. Teyssière (2005)
Rational bubbles or persistent deviations from market fundamentals?
Koustas, Z. & A. Serletis (2005)
Bubbles and Capital Flow Volatility: Causes and Risk Management | Published
Caballero, R.J. & A. Krishnamurthy (2005/06)
Slow boom, sudden crash
Veldkamp, L.L. (2005)
Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment
Dufwenberg, M., T. Lindqvist & E. Moore (2005)
Who herds?
Bernhardt, D., M. Campello & E. Kutsoati (2006)
Bubbles and Busts: The 1990s in the Mirror of the 1920s
White, E.N. (2006)
Explosive bubbles in the cointegrated VAR model
Engsted, T. (2006)
Periodically Collapsing Rational Bubbles in Exchange Rates: A Markov-Switching Analysis for a Sample of Industrialised Markets
Ferreira, J.E.A. (2006)
Foreign Bank Participation and Crises in Developing Countries
Cull, R. & M.S.M. Peria (2007)
Banks and bubbles: How good are bankers at spotting winners?
Gonzalez, L. & C. James (2007)
Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets? An Overinvestment View
Schnabl, G. & A. Hoffmann (2007)
Inefficient Credit Booms | Published
Lorenzoni, G. (2007/08)
Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals
Cipriani, M. & A. Guarino (2008)
Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments
Hommes, C., J. Sonnemans, J. Tuinstra & H. van de Velden (2008)
Thar She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?
Hussam, R.N., D. Porter & V.L. Smith (2008)
Advisors and asset prices: A model of the origins of bubbles
Hong, H., J. Scheinkman & W. Xiong (2008)
Don’t let your robots grow up to be traders: Artificial intelligence, human intelligence, and asset-market bubbles
Miller, R.M. (2008)
An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data
Mendoza, E.G. & M. Terrones (2008)
The Subprime Panic
Gorton, G.B. (2008)
Unit root testing for bubbles: A resurrection?
Waters, G.A. (2008)
Transaction costs and informational cascades in financial markets
Cipriani, M. & A. Guarino (2008)
Bubbles and multiplicity of equilibria under portfolio constraints
Hugonnier, J. (2008)
Herd Behavior and Contagion in Financial Markets
Cipriani, M. & A. Guarino (2008)
Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits
Farmer, R.E.A. (2009)
A prototype model of speculative dynamics with position-based trading
Franke, R. (2009)
The Japanese Bubble: A 'Heterogeneous' Approach
Barsky, R.N. (2009)
A Simple Trade Policy Perspective on Capital Controls
Schukhnecht, L. (1998)
International Liquidity Illusion: On the Risks of Sterilization
Caballero, R.J. and A. Krishnamurthy (2001)
Country Risk and Capital Flow Reversals
Razin, A. & E. Sadka (2001)
Financial Liberalization and Capital Flow Reversals
Eicher, T.S., U. Walz & S. Turnovsky (2001)
The swings in capital flows and the Brazilian crisis
Goldfajn, I. (2001)
Convertibility, Currency Controls and the Cost of Capital in Western Europe, 1950-1999
Voth, H.J. (2001)
Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop
Mendoza, E.G. (2001)
Abstract: The 1990s emerging-markets crises were characterized by sudden reversals in inflows of foreign capital followed by unusually large declines in current account deficits, private expenditures, production, and prices of nontradable goods relative to tradables. This paper shows that these Sudden Stops can be the outcome of the equilibrium dynamics of a flexible-price economy with imperfect credit markets. Foreign debt is denominated in units of tradables and a liquidity constraint links credit-market access to the income generated in the nontradables sector and the relative price of nontradables. Sudden Stops occur when real shocks of foreign or domestic origin, or policy-induced shocks make this constraint binding. Sudden Stops are not reflected in long-run business cycle statistics but still they entail nontrivial welfare costs. These results question crises-management policies seeking to impose direct controls on private capital flows and favor those that work to weaken credit frictions.
Temporary Controls on Capital Inflows
Reinhart, C.M. & R.T. Smith (2001)
The Quality of Bureaucracy and Capital Account Policies
Bai, C.E. & S.J. Wei (2001)
Abstract: The extent of bureaucracy varies widely across countries. However, the quality of bureaucracy within a country evolves more slowly than economic policies---such as the imposition of capital controls---which can be implemented quickly. This paper presents the possibility that the quality of bureaucracy may be an important structural determinant of open-economy macro-policies. The imposition/removal of capital controls, in particular, may be one such consequence. We derive a model that delivers such a result. It shows that bureaucratic corruption translates into the reduced ability of government to collect tax revenue. Even if capital control/financial repression is otherwise inefficient, the government still has to rely on capital control/financial repression to raise revenue for public goods provision. For all countries for which we can obtain relevant data, we find that more corrupt countries are indeed more likely to impose capital controls, a pattern consistent with the model’s prediction. To deal with possible reverse causality we use the extent of corruption in a country’s judicial system and the degree of democracy as the instrumental variables (IV) for bureaucratic corruption. The IV regressions show more corrupt countries are associated with more severe capital controls. The results suggest that a premature removal of capital controls mandated by outside institutions could reduce rather than enhance economic efficiency.
A Simple Measure of the Intensity of Capital Controls
Edison, H.J. & F.E. Warnock (2001)
Foreign Direct Investment in a World of Multiple Taxes
Desai, M.A. & J.R. Hines Jr. (2001)
Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Instability in Developing Economies | Published
Glick, R. & M. Hutchison (2001/2005)
Short and Long-Run Integration: Do Capital Controls Matter?
Kaminsky, G. & S. Schmukler (2001)
Smoothing Sudden Stops | Published
Caballero, R.J. & A. Krishnamurthy (2001)
Private capital flows and poverty reduction: incompatible bedfellows?
Cobham, A. & A. Wood (2001)
The Effects of Capital Controls on Exchange Rate Volatility and Output
Frenkel, M., C. Nickel, G. Schmidt & G. Stadtmann (2001)
Why International Equity Inflows to Emerging Markets are Inefficient and Small Relative to International Debt Inflows
Razin, A., E. Sadka & C.W. Yuen (2001)
Scrapping capital controls: pro or anti poor?
Cobham, A. (2001)
Capital flight: a blight on growth?
FitzGerald, V. & A. Cobham (2002)
International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role of Informational Asymmetries
Mody, A. & M.P. Taylor (2002)
Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets | Published
Hutchison, M. & I. Noy (2002/05)
The Influence of Capital Controls on Long Run Growth: Where and How Much? | Published
Chanda, A. (2002)
Location of Investors and Capital Flight
Botman, D. & C.G.H. Diks (2002)
Capital Flows and Crisis: the Role of Credit Market Imperfections
Bloch, C. (2002)
Credits, Crises, and Capital Controls: A Microeconomic Analysis
Neeman, Z. & G.O. Orosel (2002)
Capital Account Liberalization and Growth: Was Mr. Mahathir Right?
Eichengreen, B. & D. Leblang (2002)
Explaining Sudden Stops, Growth Collapse and BOP Crises: The Case of Distortionary Output Taxes
Calvo, C.A. (2003)
Hedging Sudden Stops and Precautionary Recessions: A Quantitative Framework | Published
Caballero, r.j. & S. Panageas (2003)
Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops
Caballero, R.J. & A. Krishnamurthy (2003)
One Cost of the Chilean Capital Controls: Increased Financial Constraints for Smallest Traded Firms |
Published
Forbes, K. (2003/07)
Capital flows to emerging markets
Penalver, A. (2003)
Cross-board listings, capital controls, and equity flows to emerging markets
Edison, H.J. & F.E. Warnock (2003)
Exchange Rate Based Stabilization with Sudden Restrictions on Capital Flows
Subramanian, C. & J. Park (2003)
The Intriguing Nexus Between Corruption and Capital Account Restrictions
Dreher, A. & L.H.R. Siemers (2003)
Modeling the Demand for Emerging Market Assets
FitzGerald, V. & D. Krolzig (2003)
Can short-term capital controls promote capital inflows?
Cordella, T. (2003)
Capital Controls: Mud in the Wheels of Market Discipline
Forbes, K.J. (2004)
Capital Controls, Liberalizations, and Foreign Direct Investment
Desai, M.A., C.F. Foley & J.R. Hines Jr. (2004)
Financial Liberalisation and Capital Regulation in Open Economies
Morrison, A.D. & L. Whit (2004)
On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects
Calvo, G.A., A. Izquierdo & L.F. Mejia (2004)
Morrison, A.D. & L. Whit (2004)
Exchange Rate Volatility and the Credit Channel in Emerging Markets: A Vertical Perspective
Caballero, R. & A. Krishnamurthy (2004)
Dealing with Destabilizing 'Market Discipline'
Cohen, D. & R. Portes (2004)
Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model
De Grauwe, P. & M. Grimaldi (2004)
Growth Effects of the Exchange-Rate Regime and the Capital-Account Openness in A Crisis-Prone World Market: A Nuanced View
Razin, A. & Y. Rubinstein (2004)
A New Set of Measures on Capital Account Restrictions
Miniane, J. (2004)
Banks and Capital Inflows
Fontenla, M. (2004)
Capital Control, Speculation and Exchange Rate Volatility
Chu, M-L. (2004)
The determination of capital controls: Which role do exchange rate regimes play?
von Hagen, J. & J. Zhou (2004)
Capital Controls, Risk, and Liberalization Cycles
Alfaro, L. & F. Kanczuk (2004)
Managing Macroeconomic Crises
Frankel, J.A. & S-J. Wei (2004)
Quantitative Implication of A Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops and Asset Prices | Published
Mendoza, E.G. & K.A. Smith (2004/06)
Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, Or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality | Published
Frankel, J.A. & E.A. Cavallo (2004/08)
Evaluation of Exchange-Rate, Capital Market, and Dollarization Regimes in the Presence of Sudden Stops
Razin, A. & Y. Rubinstein (2005)
Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collpase in Latin America: Learning from Argentina and Chile
Calvo, G.A. & E. Talvi (2005)
Sudden Stops and Output Drops | Alternative
Chari, V.V., P.J. Kehoe & E.R. McGrattan (2005)
Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals
Edwards, S. (2005)
Are Asset Price Guarantees Useful for Perventing Sudden Stops?: A Quantitative Investigation of the Globalization Hazard-Moral Hazard Tradeoff | Published
Durdu, C.B. & E.G. Mendoza (2005/06)
A Quantitative Model of Sudden Stops and External Liquidity Management
Caballero, R. & S. Panageas (2005)
Crises in Emerging Market Economies: A Global Perspective
Calvo, G.A. (2005)
What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions
Chinn, M.D. & H. Ito (2005)
The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch
Forbes, K.J. (2005)
Capital Controls, Exchange Rate Volatility and External Vulnerability | Published
Edwards, S. & R. Rigobon (2005/09)
International Borrowing, Capital Controls and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile
De Gregorio, J. & K. Cowan (2005)
Relative Price Volatility Under Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance Sheet Effects | Published
Calvo, G.A., A. Izquierdo & R. Loo-Kung (2005)
Robbing the Riches: Capital Flight, Institutions, and Instability
Cerra, V., R. Meenakshi & S.C. Saxena (2005)
Capital Controls: An Evaluation
Magud, N. & C.M. Reinhart (2005)
Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies
Mendoza, E.G. (2006)
Hedging Sudden Stops and Precautionary Contractions
Caballero, R.J. & S. Panageas (2006)
The Interaction Between Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from Developing Countries
von Hagen, J. & J. Zhou (2006)
Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs
Eichengreen, B.J., P. Gupta & A. Mody (2006)
Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look
Catão, L. (2006)
Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows Under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties
de M. Carvalho, B.S. & M.G.P. Garcia (2006)
Lessons From the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops | Published
Mendoza, E.G. (2006)
Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter
Becker, T.I. & P. Mauro (2006)
Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Original Sin in Emerging Countries: Deja vu?
Bordo, M.D. (2006)
Capital Controls: Myth and Reality A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls
Magud, N., C. Reinhart & K. Rogoff (2006)
Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect from Sudden Stops?
Levchenko, A.A. & P. Mauro (2006)
The effects of capital controls on international capital flows in the presence of asymmetric information
Neumann, R.M. (2006)
Output Growth, Capital Flow Reversals and Sudden stop Crises
Deb, S. (2006)
Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q
Mendoza, E.G. (2006)
Cross-border Listings, Capital Controls, and Equity Flows To Emerging Markets
Edison, H.J. & F.E. Warnock (2006)
Capital Controls, Capital Flow Contractions, and Macroeconomic Vulnerability | Published
Edwards, S. (2007)
Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode
Caballero, R.J. & A. Krishnamurthy (2007)
Collateral Damage: Exchange Controls and International Trade | Published
Wei, S-J. & Z. Zhang (2007)
Controls on capital inflows and external shocks
David, A.C. (2007)
How do Capital Controls Affect the Transmission of Foreign Shocks?
Cooke, D. (2007)
The Effect of Capital Controls on Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Under Country Risk with Intangible Assets
Elo, K.Z. (2007)
Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Merchantilism | Published
Durdu, C.B., E.G. Mendoza & M.E. Terrones (2007/09)
Capital flight and war
Davies, V.A.B. (2007)
Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Merchantilism
Durdu, C.B., E.G. Mendoza & M. Terrones (2007)
Do China's capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation
Ma, G. & R.N. McCauley (2007)
Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880-1913
Bordo, M.D., A.F. Cavallo & C.M. Meissner (2007)
The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops
Mertens, K. (2007)
The Duration of Capital Account Crises--An Empirical Analysis
Mecagni, M., R. Atoyan, D. Hofman & D. Tzanninis (2007)
Are Capital Controls in the Foreign Exchange Market Effective?
Straetmans, S., R. Versteeg & C.C. Wolff (2008)
Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market
Dell'Ariccia, G., D. Igan & L. Laeven (2008)
Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance Of Balance-Sheet Effects And Financial Integration
Calvo, G.A., A. Izquierdo & L-F. Meja (2008)
Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy Mishkin, F.S. (2008)
Understanding International Price Differences Using Barcode Data
Broda, C. & D.E. Weinstein (2008)
Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance
Kim, J.I. (2008)
Crises and Sudden Stops: Evidence from International Bond and Syndicated-Loan Markes
Kaminsky, G.L. (2008)
Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops - the euro and the dollar as safe haven currencies
Beck, R. & E. Rahbari (2008)
Sudden Stops, Sectoral Reallocations, and the Real Exchange Rate | Published
Kehoe, T.J. & K.J. Ruhl (2008/09)
Bankruptcy Costs, Liability Dollarization, and Vulnerability to Sudden Stops
Aysun, U. & A. Honig (2008)
Sudden Stops, Financial Crises and Leverage: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q
Mendoza, E.G. (2008)
Imperfect Competition in Financial Markets and Capital Controls: A Model and a Test
Pasricha, G.K. (2008)
Sudden Stops, Banking Crises and Investment Collapses in Emerging Markets
Joyce, J.P. & M. Nabar (2008)
Multiple Reserve Requirements, Exchange Rates, Sudden Stops and Equilibrium Dynamics in a Small Open Economy
Wang, W-Y. & P. Hernandez-Verme (2009)
The Persistence of Capital Account Crises
Mecagni, M., R. Atoyan & D. Hofman (2009)
Modeling sudden stops: The non-trivial role of preference specifications
Chakraborty, S. (2009)
Optimal monetary policy in a ‘sudden stop’
Braggion, F., L.J. Christiano & J. Roldos (2009)
Contagious Speculative Attacks
Gerlach,. S. & F. Smets (1995)
Abstract: During the European exchange market turmoil in 1992–1993 it was evident that speculative attacks tended to spread across currencies. Using a two-country version of the model developed by Flood and Garber (1984) we show how a speculative attack against one currency may accelerate the 'warranted' collapse of a second parity. More importantly, even if the parity of the second currency is viable in the absence of a collapse of the first one, it might be subjected to a speculative attack if the reserves available to defend the parity are 'small'.
Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?
Glick, R. & A.K. Rose (1998)
Abstract: Currency crises tend to be regional; they affect countries in geographic proximity. This suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above and beyond any macroeconomic phenomena. We provide empirical support for this hypothesis. Using data for five different currency crises (in 1971, 1973, 1992, 1994, and 1997) we show that currency crises affect clusters of countries tied together by international trade. By way of contrast, macroeconomic and financial influences are not closely associated with the cross-country incidence of speculative attacks. We also show that trade linkages help explain cross-country correlations in exchange market pressure during crisis episodes, even after controlling for macroeconomic factors.
On Crises, Contagion, and Confusion
Kaminsky, G. & C. Reinhart (1999)
Abstract: Since the Tequila crisis of 1994-95, the Asian flu of 1997, and the Russian virus of 1998, economists have been busy producing research on the subject of contagion. Yet, few studies have examined empirically through which channels the disturbances are transmitted if there are, indeed, fundamental reasons for the spillovers we observe. We attempt to fill this gap by analyzing how both trade links and the largely ignored financial sector links influence the pattern of fundamentals-based contagion. We examine the role of international bank lending, the potential for cross-market hedging, and bilateral and third-party trade in the propagation of crises.
On Currency Crises and Contagion
Fratzscher, M. (2000)
Contagion: How to Measure It?
Rigobon, R. (2001)
Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?
Forbes, K.J. (2001)
What Drives Contagion: Trade, Neighborhood, or Financial Links?
Hernandez, L.F. & Valdes, R.O. (2001)
Crisis and Contagion in East Asia: Nine Lessons
Kawai, M., R. Newfarmer & S. Schmukler (2001)
Correlation Analysis of Financial Contagion: What One Should Know Before Running a Test
Corsetti, G., M. Pericoli & M. Sbracia (2001)
Abstract: This paper builds a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis - a test that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the data generating process of rates of return. Using a factor model of returns as theoretical framework, we nest leading contributions in the literature as special cases of our test. We show that, while the literature on correlation analysis of contagion is successful in controlling for a potential bias induced by changes in the variance of global shocks, current tests are conditional on a specific yet arbitrary assumption about the variance of country specific shocks. Our results suggest that, for a number of pairs of country stock markets, the hypothesis of 'no contagion' can be rejected only if the variance of country specific shocks is set to levels that are not consistent with the evidence.
Volatility Dependence and Contagion in Emerging Equity Markets
Edwards, S. & R. Susmel (2001)
Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite: Analytical Issues and Empirical Evidence
Kumar, M.S. & A. Persaud (2001)
Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods | Published
Hartmann, P., S. Straetmans & C.G. de Vries (2001/2004)
International Financial Contagion and the Fund: A Theoretical Framework
Clark, P.B. & H. Huang (2001)
Financial Institutions, Contagious Risks, and Financial Crises
Huang, H. & C. Xu (2001)
Crises in The Global Economy from Tulips to Today: Contagion and Consequences
Neal, L. & M.D. Weidenmier (2001)
Determinants of Private Capital Flows in the 1970s and 1990s - Is There Evidence of Contagion?
Hernandez, L.F., P. Mellado & R.O. Valdes (2001)
Testing for contagion using correlations: some words of caution
Dungey, M. & D. Zhumabekova (2002)
International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse | Published
Dungey, M., R. Fry, B. Gonzalez-Hermosillo & V. Martin (2002/06)
Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets
Chan-Lau, J., D.J. Mathieson & J.Y. Yao (2002)
Coordination Failure and Financial Contagion
Manz, M. (2002)
An empirical analysis of limited recourse project
Kleimeier, S. & H. Sander (2002)
Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion | Published
Corsetti, G., M. Pericoli & M. Sbracia (2002/05)
Spreading Currency Crises: The Role of Economic Interdependence | Published
Berger, W. & H. Wagner (2002)
High Frequency Contagion of Currency Crises in Asia
Ito, T. & Y. Hashimoto (2002)
Capital Flows, Country Risk, and Contagion
Fiess, N.M. (2003)
The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil
Kaminsky, G.L. & C. Reinhart (2003)
Market Integration and Contagion
Bekaert, G. & C.R. Harvey (2003)
Contagion of Currency Crises across Unrelated Countries without Common Lender
Taketa, K. (2003)
A Large Speculator in Contagious Currency Crises
Taketa, K. (2003)
Fatal Attraction: A New Measure of Contagion | Published
Bayoumi, T.A., G. Fazio, M.S. Kumar & R. Macdonald (2003/07)
Testing for Contagion in International Financial Markets: Which Way to Go?
Walti, S. (2003)
Unanticipated Shocks and Systemic Influences: The Impact of Contagion in Global Equity Markets in 1998
Dungey, M., R. Fry, B. Gonzalez-Hermosillo & V. Martin (2003)
Testing for Financial Contagion between Developed and Emerging Markets during the 1997 East Asian Crisis
Arestis, P., G.M. Caporale & A. Cipollini (2003)
Shift Contagion in Asset Markets | Published
Gravelle, T., M. Kichian & J. Morley (2003/06)
Contagion and State Dependent Mutations
Lee, I.H., A. Szeidl & A. Valentinyi (2003)
The Global Transmission of Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market
Melvin, M. & B.P. Melvin (2003)
Testing for contagion in international financial markets: which way to go?
Walti, S. (2003)
Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model
Ciccarelli, M. & A. Rebucci (2003)
The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion | Published
Kaminsky, G.L., C. Reinhart & C.A. Vegh (2003)
The Interactions between Debt and Currency Crises: Common Causes or Contagion?
Herz, B. & H. Tong (2004)
Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Contagion | Published
Pesaran, H. & A. Pick (2004/07)
Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion
Contagion, Herding and Exchange Rate Instability - A Survey
REVIEW PAPER
Belke, A. & R. Setzer (2004)
High-Frequency Contagion Between the Exchange Rates and Stock Prices
Hashimoto, Y. & T. Ito (2004)
The Asian flu and Russian virus: the international transmission of crises in firm-level data
Forbes, K.J. (2004)
Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies
REVIEW PAPER
Dungey, M., R. Fry, B. Gonzalez-Hermosillo & V. Martin (2004)
Fundamentals and Joint Currency Crises | Alternative
Market Stress and Herding
Exchange Rate Regimes, Globalisation And The Cost Of Capital In Emerging Markets
Managerial Incentives and Financial Contagion
International transmission of stock exchange volatility: Empirical evidence from the Asian crisis
International capital flows and transmission of financial crises
When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion | Published
Strong Contagion with Weak Spillovers | Published
Abstract: In this paper, we develop a model which explains why events in one market may trigger similar events in other markets, even though at first sight the markets appear to be only weakly related. We allow for multiple equilibria and learning dynamics in each market, and show that a jump between equilibria in one market is contagious because it more than doubles the probability of a similar jump in another market. We claim that contagion is strong since equilibrium jumps become highly synchronized across markets. Spillovers are weak because the instantaneous spillover of events from one market to another is small. To illustrate our result, we demonstrate how a currency crisis may be contagious with only weak links between countries. Other examples where weak spillovers would create strong contagion are various models of monetary policy, imperfect competition and endogenous growth.
Wealth Transfers, Contagion, and Portfolio Constraints
Intra and inter-regional causal linkages of emerging stock markets: evidence from Asia and Latin America in and out of crises
Investment Restrictions and Contagion in Emerging Markets
Measuring common cyclical features during financial turmoil: Evidence of interdependence not contagion
Vanishing Contagion?
Credit risk transfer and contagion
Credit Chains and the Propagation of Financial Distress
Credit contagion and aggregate losses
Expectations and Contagion in Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks
Is There Hedge Fund Contagion?
Cross-border Bank Contagion in Europe
Are financial spillovers stable across regimes?: Evidence from the 1997 Asian crisis
An empirical study to identify shift contagion during the Asian crisis
Contagion Equilibria in a Monetary Model
Contagion and interdependence: Measuring CEE banking sector co-movements
Informational contagion of bank runs in a third-generation crisis model
Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London as a Global Financial Center
The defense of multilateral exchange rate target zones against contagious crises
Deconstructing the Nasdaq bubble: A look at contagion across international stock markets
A simple model of credit contagion
Identification and Estimation in an Incoherent Model of Contagion
Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets
A cautious note on the use of panel models to predict financial crises
Vanishing financial contagion?
Information acquisition and financial contagion
Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets
How the Subprime Crisis Went Global: Evidence from Bank Credit Default Swap Spreads
Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets during the Global Financial Crisis
Spillovers to Emerging Equity Markets: An Econometric Assessment
Crises, contagion and cross-listings
The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies
Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation
The Logic of Currency Crises
Abstract: In this paper it is argued that on cannot adequately understand the recent European currency experience in terms of Krugman's (1979) model. Instead, I present two different models in which crisis and realignment result from the interaction of rational private economic actors and a government that pursues well-defined policy goals.
Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold
Abstract: This paper claims that the roots of Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis are found in the prevailing high degree of capital mobility and financial globalization. Under these circumstances, shifts in foreign capital flows and anticipation of a banking system bailout may produce large imbalances between stocks of financial assets and foreign reserves, threatening the sustainability of currency pegs. Econometric analysis suggests that half of Mexico's reserve losses could be accounted for by these phenomena. Large financial imbalances are also fertile ground for self-sulfilling prophesy crises which lead devaluations to produce deep recessions. These difficulties can be partly remedied by appropriate policies.
Leading Indicators of Currency Crises
Fire-Sale FDI
Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature
Abstract: Examines the flip side of Asian Flu - rapid foreign acquiring. This is due to Asian firms selling off and currencies plunging.
Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis
Abstract: This paper develops an interpretation of the Asian meltdown focused on moral hazard as the common source of overinvestment, excessive external borrowing, and current account deficits. To the extent that foreign creditors are willing to lend to domestic agents against future bail-out revenue from the government, unprofitable projects and cash shortfalls are re-financed through external borrowing. While public deficits need not be high before a crisis, the eventual refusal of foreign creditors to refinance the country's cumulative losses forces the government to step in and guarantee the outstanding stock of external liabilities. To satisfy solvency, the government must then undertake appropriate domestic fiscal reforms, possibly involving recourse to seigniorage revenues. Expectations of inflationary financing thus cause a collapse of the currency and anticipate the event of a financial crisis. The empirical section of the paper presents evidence in support of the thesis that weak cyclical performances, low foreign exchange reserves, and financial deficiencies resulting into high shares of non-performing loans were at the core of the Asian collapse.
The Economics of Currency Crises and Contagion: An Introduction
REVIEW PAPER
Abstract: Two theories of the causes of currency crises prevail in the economic literature. The first traces currency instability to countries' structural imbalances and weak policies; the second identifies arbitrary shifts in market expectations as the principal source of instability. The authors of this article contend that only a synthesis of these theories can capture the complexity of the 1997-98 Asian currency crisis. In their view, the crisis resulted from the interaction of structural weaknesses and volatile international capital markets. The authors also cite two other factors that contributed to the severity of the Asia crisis: inadequate supervision of the banking and financial sectors and the rapid transmission of the crisis across countries linked by trade and common credit sources.
Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows, and Currency Crises
A Currency Crises Model That Works: A Payments Disequilibrium Approach
Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion
Safety from Currency Crashes
Currency Instability and Government Change
A Primer on Emerging Market Crises
The double play: simultaneous speculative attacks on currency and equity markets
Currency Crises and Foreign Reserves - A Simple Model
Negative Alchemy? Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows, and Currency Crises
Does the Current Account Matter?
The Role of Large Players in Currency Crises
Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets
CONFERENCE VOLUME
Rescue Packages and Output Losses Following Crises
A Cure Worse Than The Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs
Stopping 'Hot Money' or Signaling Bad Policy? Capital Controls and the Onset of Currency Crises
Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders | Published
Abstract: Do large investors increase the vulnerability of a country to speculative attacks in the foreign exchange markets? To address this issue, we build a model of currency crises where a single large investor and a continuum of small investors independently decide whether to attack a currency based on their private information about fundamentals. Even abstracting from signaling, the presence of the large investor does make all other traders more aggressive in their selling. Relative to the case in which there is no large investors, small investors attack the currency when fundamentals are stronger. Yet, the difference can be small, or null, depending on the relative precision of private information of the small and large investors. Adding signaling makes the influence of the large trader on small traders' behaviour much stronger.
Explaining Currency Crises: A Duration Model Approach | Published
A 'Vertical' Analysis of Crises and Intervention: Fear of Floating and Ex-ante Problems
Is the Crisis Growing More Severe?
A Simple Model of Monetary Policy and Currency Crises
Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention
The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises
Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis
Global Games: Theory and Applications
Abstract: Global games are games of incomplete information whose type space is determined by the players each observing a noisy signal of the underlying state. With strategic complementarities, globals games often have a unique, dominance-solvable equilibrium, allowing analysis of a number of models of economic coordination failure. For symmetric binary action global games, equilibrium strategies in the limit (as noise becomes negligible) are simple to characterize in terms of 'diffuse' beliefs over the actions of others. We describe a number of economic applications that fall in this category. We also explore the distinctive roles of public and private information in this setting, review results for general global games, discuss the relationship between global games and a literature in higher order beliefs in game theory and describe the relationship to local interaction games and dynamic games with payoff shocks.
Corporate Financial Policies and Performance Around Currency Crises
Convertibility Risk: The Precautionary Demand for Foreign Currency in a Crisis
Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals
How Risky is Financial Liberalization in the Developing Countries?
Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes
Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy: Additional Evidence from Emerging Markets
Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating
Capital Flows to Transition Economies: Master or Servant
Structural Vulnerability and Currency Crises | Published
Stop-Loss Orders and Price Cascades in Currency Markets | Published
Dollarization Of Liabilities And The Value Of Collateral
Fiscal Deficits And Currency Crises
Stabilisations, Crises and the "Exit" Problem - A Theoretical Model
How to avoid self-fulfilling crises
Financial Crises, Monetary Policy and Financial Fragility: A Second-Generation Model of Currency Crises
Interpreting Currency Crises - A Review of Theory, Evidence, and Issues
REVIEW PAPER
An Iron Law of Currency Crises: The Divergence of the Nominal and the Real Exchange Rate and Increasing Current Account Deficits
Currency Crises and Macroeconomic Performance
Currency Attacks with Multiple Equilibria and Imperfect Information: The Role of Wage-setters
Sargent-Wallace Meets Krugman-Flood-Garber, or: Why Sovereign Debt Swaps Don't Avert Macroeconomic Crises | Published
Abstract: This paper argues that the frequent failure of the debt swaps is not an accident. Instead, it follows from fundamental forces driven by the market's assessment of the scarcity of fiscal revenue relative to the demand for fiscal outlays. It follows from the observation that arbitrage forces systematically impact prices in asset markets. Ignoring these price adjustments would lead to too optimistic an assessment of the gains from swaps or buybacks. A by-product of our paper is to highlight the perils of financial engineering that ignores the intertemporal constraints imposed by fiscal fundamentals. As a country approaches the range of partial default (either on domestic or external debt), swaps may not provide the expected breathing room and could even bring the crisis forward. Our methodology combines three independent themes: exchange rate crises as the manifestation of excessive monetary injections [Krugman-Flood-Garber], the fiscal theory of inflation [Sargent-Wallace (1981)], and sovereign debt. The integrated framework derives devaluation and external debt repudiation as part of a public-finance optimizing problem. We shows that under conditions similar to those which prevailed in Russia and Argentina prior to their meltdown, swaps are not just neutral, but could actually make the situation worse and even trigger a speculative attack. An unsettlingly clear implication of the model is that there may be very few options left once public debt reaches levels regarded as unsustainable in relation to fiscal fundamentals. Dollarization only makes matters worse, and pushes the debt write-down option to the fore.
An Eclectic Approach to Currency Crises: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience
Are Financially Dollarized Countries More Prone to Costly Crises?
Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?
Government Finance in the Wake of Currency Crises | Published
Statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises
Dynamic Speculative Attacks
Uniqueness in Currency Crisis Models
Target zones, reserve crises, and inverted S-curves
Abstract: Recent currency crises have focused attention on models of currency crises. Although many models exist, few focus on intermediate exchange rate systems, and fewer describe the interplay between regime choice and vulnerability to crisis. This paper embeds a target zone model (typifying many intermediate regimes) into a first-generation currency crisis model. This paper shows that an inverted S-curve (where a targeted exchange rate is more volatile than its underlying fundamentals) is generally inconsistent with a viable target zone because such a regime would collapse upon speculative attack. This paper describes conditions where a policymaker could ensure a target zone would weakly stabilize exchange rates and thereby maintain short-run viability.
On the Changing Nature of Currency Crises
Currency attack/defense with two-sided private information
Mixed Signals in Defending the Exchange Rate: What do the Data Say?
Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks | Published
Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?
Output Response to Currency Crises | Published
Varieties of Currency Crises | Published
Abstract: The plethora of currency crises around the world has fueled many theories on the causes of speculative attacks. The first-generation models focus on fiscal problems. The second-generation models emphasize countercyclical policies and self-fulfilling crises. In the 1990s, models pinpoint to financial excesses. With the crisis of Argentina in 2001, models of sovereign default have become popular again. While the theoretical literature has emphasized variety, the empirical literature has supported the one size fits all' models. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by assessing whether the crises of the last thirty years are of different varieties. Crises are found to be of six varieties. Four of those varieties are associated with domestic economic fragility. But crises can also be provoked by just adverse world market conditions, such as the reversal of international capital flows. The so-called sudden-stop phenomenon identifies the fifth variety of crises. Finally, a small number of crises occur in economies with immaculate fundamentals but this type of crises is not an emerging-market phenomenon.
Ownership and Control in Outsourcing to China: Estimating the Property-Rights Theory of the Firm
Learning, Large Deviations, And Recurrent Currency Crises
Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets
Abstract: In most of the currency crises of the 1990s, the largest output falls have occurred in those emerging economies with large currency mismatches, a phenomenon that occurs when assets and liabilities are denominated in different currencies such that net worth is sensitive to changes in the exchange rate. The authors summarize what is known about the origins of currency mismatching in emerging economies, discuss how best to define and measure currency mismatching, and review policy options for reducing the problem.
Disparate information and the probability of currency crises: empirical evidence
Interest Rate Defenses of Currency Pegs
Financial Constraints and Growth: Multinational and Local Firm Responses to Currency Crises
The Changing Nature of Currency Crises
The Theory of Global Games on Test: Experimental Analysis of Coordination Games with Public and Private Information
On the Dynamics of Information, Coordination and Regime Change | Published
Abstract: This paper examines how the dynamics of information influences the dynamics of coordination in an environment with strategic complementarities and heterogeneous expectations. We consider a simple dynamic global game of regime change, in which the status quo is abandoned when a sufficiently large fraction of agents attacks it. Applications include bank runs, currency crises, revolutions, and political reforms. We show that the occurrence of coordinated attacks and the timing of regime change depend, not only on the evolution of information, but also on arbitrary self-fulfilling expectations. Despite the indeterminacy in short-run dynamics, long-run outcomes are driven by fundamentals: There is a unique threshold below which regime change is inevitable in the long run. Moreover, all equilibrium paths are characterized by the succession of short phases of high risk of a crisis and long phases of tranquility, which may explain why phenomena such as speculative attacks and revolutions appear as spikes in economic or social activity.
Old and Modern Currency Crises: Short-Term Liabilities, Speculative Attacks and Business Cycle
Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks
A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises
The Years of Emerging Market Crises: A Review of Feldstein
Currency Mismatch, Uncertainty and Debt Structure
The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revealed
Abstract: We show that the when one takes into account the global equilibrium ramifications of an unwinding of the US current account deficit, currently estimated at 5.4% of GDP, the potential collapse of the dollar becomes considerably larger--more than 50% larger--than our previous estimates (Obstfeld and Rogoff 2000a). That global capital markets may have deepened (as emphasized by US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan) does not affect significantly the extent of dollar decline in the wake of global current account adjustment. Rather, the dollar adjustment to global current account rebalancing depends more centrally on the level of goods-market integration. Whereas the dollar's decline may be benign as in the 1980s, we argue that the current conjuncture more closely parallels the early 1970s, when the Bretton Woods system collapsed. Finally, we use our model to dispel some common misconceptions about what kinds of shifts are needed to help close the US current account imbalance. Faster growth abroad helps only if it is relatively concentrated in nontradable goods; faster productivity growth in foreign tradable goods is more likely to exacerbate the US adjustment problem.
Recovery from a currency crisis: some stylized facts
Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises
Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates
An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?
Predicting currency fluctuations and crises: Do resident firms have an informational advantage?
Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries | Published
Abstract: To update a famous old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is almost twice as likely to lose office in the six months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is highly significant statistically, holds regardless of whether the devaluation takes place in the context of an IMF program. Why are devaluations so costly? Many of the currency crises of the last 10 years have been associated with output loss. Is this, as alleged, because of excessive reliance on raising the interest rate as a policy response? More likely it is because of contractionary effects of devaluation. There are various possible contractionary effects of devaluation, but it is appropriate that the balance sheet effect receives the most emphasis. Pass-through from exchange rate changes to import prices in developing countries is not the problem: this coefficient fell in the 1990s, as a look at some narrowly defined products shows. Rather, balance sheets are the problem. How can countries mitigate the fall in output resulting from the balance sheet effect in crises? In the shorter term, adjusting promptly after inflows cease is better than procrastinating by shifting to short-term dollar debt, which raises the costliness of the devaluation when it finally comes. In the longer term, greater openness to trade reduces vulnerability to both sudden stops and currency crashes.
Currency crashes and bond yields in industrial countries
Determining Underlying Macroeconomic Fundamentals during Emerging Market Crises: Are Conditions as Bad as they Seem? | Published
How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study using Multiple-Response Models
The Role of Domestic and Foreign Investors in a Simple Model of Speculative Attacks
Dynamics of currency crises with asset market frictions
Hedging, Speculation, and Investment in Balance-Sheet Triggered Currency Crises
Imperfect Common Knowledge in First Generation Models of Currency Crises
Hedging, Speculation, and Investment in Balance-Sheet Triggered Currency Crises
Macroeconomic Regime Switches and Speculative Attacks | Published
Abstract: This paper explains a currency crisis as an outcome of a switch in how monetary policy and fiscal policy are coordinated. The paper develops a model of an open economy in which monetary policy starts active, fiscal policy starts passive and, in a particular state of nature, monetary policy switches to passive and fiscal policy switches to active. The probability of the regime switch is endogenous and changes over time together with the state of the economy. The regime switch is preceded by a sharp increase in interest rates and causes a jump in the exchange rate. The model predicts that currency composition of public debt affects dynamics of macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, the model is consistent with evidence from recent currency crises, in particular small seigniorage revenues.
Signaling in a Global Game: Coordination and Policy Traps
Fiscal imbalances and the dynamics of currency crises
Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis? | Published
Are Currency Crises Low-State Equilibria? An Empirical, Three-Interest-Rate Model | Published
Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises: an Evaluation using Extreme Value Theory
Trade First and Trade Fast: A Duration Analysis of Recovery from Currency Crisis
Speculative Attacks and Informational Structure: an Experimental Study
Economic growth and currency crisis: A real exchange rate entropic approach
Supply Shocks and Currency Crises: The Policy Dilemma Reconsidered
Model-free Measurement of Exchange Market Pressure
Exchange Market Pressure: Some Caveats In Empirical Applications
Currency crises and foreign credit in emerging markets: credit crunch or demand effect?
The effect of monetary policy on exchange rates during currency crisis: the role of debt, institutions and financial openness | Published
Self-fulfilling currency attacks with biased signals
A note on interest rate defense policy and exchange rate volatility
An event study of institutions and currency crises
The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Currency Crises; The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness
Discrete Devaluations and Multiple Equilibria in a First Generation Model of Currency Crises | Published
A Markov-Switching Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure
Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? New evidence
Assessing the Effect of Current Account and Currency Crises on Economic Growth
On the determinants of currency crises: The role of model uncertainty
Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The No Interest Parity Case
Asymmetric price rigidity and the optimal interest rate defense of the exchange rate: Some evidence for the US
Evaluating currency crises: A Bayesian Markov switching approach
Carry Trades and Currency Crashes
Rate of return parity and currency crises in experimental asset markets
Defending against Speculative Attacks
Abstract: While virtually all modern models of exchange rate crises recognise that the decision to abandon an exchange rate peg depends on how harshly policy makers are willing to defend the regime, they virtually never model how the exchange rate is defended. In this paper we incorporate both the mechanics of speculation and a defence policy against speculation in the well-known currency crisis model of Morris and Shin (American Economic Review 88 (1998) 587-97). After adding these natural elements, our model outperforms standard currency crisis models at explaining stylised features of speculative attacks. Moreover, our model connects the theoretical currency crisis literature to an empirical literature on exchange market pressure, by bringing together its building blocks: exchange rate changes plus counter-acting defence policies. We use this connection to confirm our model's predictions empirically.
The Nonlinear Dynamics of Foreign Reserves and Currency Crises
Can Open Capital Markets Help Avoid Currency Crises?
Currency crashes in industrial countries: much ado about nothing?
The Theoretical Link Between Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis Episodes
Defending Against Speculative Attacks
A note on estimating realignment probabilities – A first-passage-time approach
Common determinants of currency crises: role of external balance sheet variables
Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features: A comment
Crash Risk in Currency Markets
International financial markets and the implications for monetary and financial stability
CONFERENCE VOLUME
The Corporate Governance of Banks
Financial Policies and the Prevention of Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Financial Stability and Fiscal Crises in a Monetary Union
Allocating bank regulatory powers: lender of last resort, deposit insurance and supervision
Deposit Insurance Around the Globe: Where Does it Work? | Alternative
Identifying the Predictors for Financial Crisis Using Gibbs Sampler
The Contribution of Domestic and External Factors to Emerging Market Devaluation Crises: An Early Warning Systems Approach
Towards a new early warning system of financial crises | Published
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach
International Survey of Integrated Financial Sector Supervision
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
Emerging Issues in Banking Regulation
Liquidity Concepts and Financial Instabilities
CONFERENCE VOLUME
Who Needs Foreign Banks?
Tenuous Financial Stability
A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility: Applications
Abstract: The purpose of our work is to explore contagious financial crises. To this end, we use simplified, thus numerically solvable, versions of our general model [Goodhart, Sunirand and Tsomocos (2003)]. The model incorporates heterogeneous agents, banks and endogenous default, thus allowing various feedback and contagion channels to operate in equilibrium. Such a model leads to different results from those obtained when using a standard representative agent model. For example, there may be a trade-off between efficiency and financial stability, not only for regulatory policies, but also for monetary policy. Moreover, agents which have more investment opportunities can deal with negative shocks more effectively by transferring ‘negative externalities’ onto others.
An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia
Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?
Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits: An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction
Does Regulatory Governance Matter for Financial System Stability? An Empirical Analysis
Towards a General Theory of Financial Regulation: Predicting, Measuring and Preventing Financial Crises
Toward a Framework for Safeguarding Financial Stability
Managing Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide Overview
Understanding Financial Vulnerability in Partially Dollarized Economies
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?
A Taxonomy of Financial Crisis Resolution Mechanisms: Cross-Country Experience
The Corporate Governance of Banks: A Concise Discussion of Concepts and Evidence
Defining Financial Stability
Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth
Extreme Value Theory and the Incidence of Currency Crises
The subordinated debt alternative to Basel II
Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries: How Much Is Enough?
The simple economics of bank fragility
A (New) Country Insurance Facility | Published
Interest rate smoothing and financial stability
Ex Ante Carrots instead of Ex Post Sticks: Two Examples
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
Quantitative Analysis of Crisis: Crisis Identification and Causality
Liberalization, Prudential Supervision, and Capital Requirements: The Policy Trade-Offs
Bank Concentration and Fragility: Impact and Mechanics
Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims
Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth
Lending Booms and Lending Standards
Strengthening IMF Crisis Prevention
Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems
Predicting financial crises in emerging markets using a composite non-parametric model
FIRST: A Market-Based Approach to Evaluate Financial System Risk and Stability
Deposit insurance, bank regulation, and financial system risks
Is One Watchdog Better Than Three? International Experience with Integrated Financial Sector Supervision
Are Emerging Market Currency Crises Predictable? - A Test
The Role of IMF Support in Crisis Prevention
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
A New Approach to Modeling Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises : can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?
Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and Its Application to Financial Market Surveillance
A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing Tool: A Multifactor Nth-to-Default CDS Basket
On the duration of the financial system stability under liberalization
An identity crisis? Examining IMF financial programming
Competition and Entry in Banking: Implications for Stability and Capital Regulation
Are More Competitive Banking Systems More Stable?
IMF-Supported Programs and Crisis Prevention: An Analytical Framework
How Do Central Banks Write on Financial Stability?
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
Does the Basle Capital Accord reduce bank fragility? An assessment of the value-at-risk approach
The Limits of Market-Based Risk Transfer and Implications for Managing Systemic Risks
Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices
A framework for assessing financial stability?
Financial fragility and economic fluctuations
An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises
Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy
Growing Up to Financial Stability
Banking Supervision: Quality and Governance
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
Global Imbalances and Financial Stability | Published
Hedge Funds, Financial Intermediation, and Systemic Risk
Leaning Against the Wind
An 'Almost-Too-Late' Warning Mechanism for Currency Crises
Should Bank Supervisors in Developing Countries Exercise More or Less Forbearance?
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
EU Framework for Safeguarding Financial Stability: Towards an Analytical Benchmark for Assessing its Effectiveness
Can We Predict the Next Capital Account Crisis?
How Well Do Aggregate Bank Ratios Identify Banking Problems?
Islamic Banks and Financial Stability: An Empirical Analysis
Helping Hand or Grabbing Hand? Supervisory Architecture, Financial Structure and Market View
The Welfare Cost of Banking Regulation
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
Flexible inflation targeting and financial stability: Is it enough to stabilize inflation and output?
The Procyclical Effects of Basel II
Financial Supervisory Independence and Accountability-Exploring the Determinants
Bank Governance, Regulation, and Risk Taking
Bank regulations are changing: for better or worse?
Bank competition and financial stability: friends or foes?
Quality of Regulation and Supervision Around the World
Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves
Stress Testing at the IMF
Bank Losses, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability-Evidence on the Interplay from Panel Data
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality
An Economic Index of Riskiness
Endogenous screening, credit crunches, and competition in laxity
Financial (in)stability, supervision and liquidity injections : a dynamic general equilibrium approach
The Value of Financial Stability
Banking Stability Measures
Securitisation and Financial Stability
On the Paradox of Prudential Regulations in the Globalized Economy: International Reserves and the Crisis a Reassessment
The Use (and Abuse) of CDS Spreads During Distress
Financial (In)stability, Supervision and Liquidity Injections: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach
Financial Stability Frameworks and the Role of Central Banks: Lessons from the Crisis
IMF Global Financial Stability Report
Abstract: The global financial system remains under severe stress as the crisis broadens to include households, corporations, and the banking sectors in both advanced and emerging market countries. In normal times, the Global Financial Stability Report aims to prevent crises by highlighting policies that may mitigate systemic risks, thereby contributing to financial stability and sustained economic growth. In the current crisis, the report traces the sources and channels of financial distress and provides policy advice on mitigating its effects on economic activity, stemming contagion, and mending the global financial system.
Financial market stability—A test
Unstable Banking
Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries
Credit Risk Spreads in Local and Foreign Currencies
The Systemic Regulation of Credit Rating Agencies and Rated Markets
Sovereign Liquidity Crisis: The Strategic Case for A Payments Standstill
Sovereign liquidity crises: analytics and implications for public policy
An Alternative Tax on Cross-Border Investment
Bond Restructuring and Moral Hazard: Are Collective Action Clauses Costly?
Competition and Intervention in Sovereign Debt Markets
Early Ideas on Sovereign Bankruptcy Reorganization: A Survey
Odious Debt
Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976-2001
Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility
Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism - Further Considerations
A Fiscal Theory of Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology: An Evaluation
A Brazilian-Type Debt Crisis: Simple Analytics | Published
Anticipating Credit Events using Credit Default Swaps, with an Application to Sovereign Debt Crises
Rating the Rating Agencies: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises
Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: A welfare analysis
Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies
Recovery Rates from Distressed Debt - Empirical Evidence from Chapter 11 Filings, International Litigation, and Recent Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Crisis Resolution: Next Steps | Revised
Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises
Sovereign Credit Ratings and Their Impact on Recent Financial Crises
Bail out or work out? theoretical considerations
Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets
Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs
Stochastic Optimal Control Modeling of Debt Crises
Abstract: What is an optimal or a sustainable external debt - for a country, region or sector? How should one monitor and evaluate debt to preclude a crisis? We use stochastic optimal control/dynamic programming to derive an optimal debt. The deviation of the actual from the optimal will serve as a Warning Signal of a crisis. There is a correspondence between Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation of Dynamic Programming and the static Mean-Variance (M-V) analysis in finance. A graphic analysis of M-V is helpful to explain the implications of DP. An explicit example is the US Agricultural debt crisis.
Can Debt Crises Be Self-Fulfilling? | Published
Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture
Sovereign Debt: Default, Market Sanction, and Bailout
Sovereign default and the sustainability risk premium effect
Optimal Debt and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in a Stochastic Environment: an Overview
Resolution of Sovereign Debt Crises: The New Old Framework
"Rules of Thumb" for Sovereign Debt Crises | Published
Overpricing in Emerging Market Credit-Default-Swap Contracts: Some Evidence from Recent Distress Cases
Haircuts: Estimating Investor Losses in Sovereign Debt Restructurings, 1998-2005 | Published
Designing an early warning system for debt crises
Managing Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies: Experience with the Involvement of Private Sector Creditors
Considerations in the Choice of the Appropriate Discount Rate for Evaluating Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Toward a Lender of First Resort
Lending Resumption After Default: Lessons from Capital Markets During the 19th Century
The Level and Composition of Public Sector Debt in Emerging Market Crises
Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises
Abstract: Detailed case studies of debt defaults by Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Moldova, and Uruguay, framed by a comprehensive discussion of the history, economic theory, legal issues, and policy lessons of sovereign debt crises.
Sovereign default risk, the IMF and creditor moral hazard
Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector
A solution to the default risk-business cycle disconnect
Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds
Who Saw Sovereign Debt Crises Coming?
Rational panics and stock market crashes
Stock market crashes and dynamics of aftershocks
Crashes and recoveries in illiquid markets
stock market crashes as social phase transitions
Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes
The Costs of Sovereign Default
Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles
Stock-Market Crashes and Depressions
Stock market crashes, firm characteristics, and stock returns
The Twin Crises: Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems
Abstract: In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and currency crises. We find that: problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis—the currency crisis deepens the banking crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises. The anatomy of these episodes suggests that crises occur as the economy enters a recession, following a prolonged boom in economic activity that was fueled by credit, capital inflows, and accompanied by an overvalued currency.
Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises
Abstract: Manias, Panics and Crashes is a scholarly and entertaining account of the way that mismanagement of money and credit has led to financial explosions over the centuries. Covering such topics as the history and anatomy of crises, speculative manias, and the lender of last resort, this book has been hailed as 'a true classic...both timely and timeless.' In this new, updated fifth edition, Kindleberger and Aliber expand upon the ideas presented in the previous edition, and include two new chapters on the real estate price bubble that occurred in Norway, Sweden and Finland at the end of the 1980s, and the three asset price bubbles that occurred between 1985 and 2000 in Japan and other Asian countries. Selected as one of the best investment books of all time by the Financial Times, Manias, Panics and Crashes puts the turbulence of the financial world in perspective.
On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises
Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are Twins?
A Model of the Joint Distribution of Banking and Exchange-Rate Crises | Published
Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies: Overview of Prevention and Management
REVIEW PAPER
Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy
Margin Calls, Trading Costs, and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets: The Finanical Mechanics of the 'Sudden Stop' Phenomenon
How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises
Another Twin Crisis: Currency and Debt
What drives financial crises in emerging markets?
Is There a Causal Link between Currency and Debt Crises?
When Bad Things Happen to Good Banks: Contagious Bank Runs and Currency Crises
An Exegesis on Currency and Banking Crises
Dollar Shortages and Crises
Strategic Complementarities and the Twin Crises
Quantitative Analysis of Crisis: Crisis Identification and Causality
What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?
Are Debt Crises Adequately Defined?
Will Subprime be a Twin Crisis for the United States?
A model of the interactions between banking crises and currency crises
Modelling the dependency between currency and debt crises: An option based approach
Debt and Currency Crises: Complements or Substitutes?
The role of liquidity and implicit guarantees in the German twin crisis of 1931
Asset prices and twin crises
International macroeconomic dynamics: A factor vector autoregressive approach
The Asian Crisis, the IMF and Dr Mahathir
From Asian Miracle to Asian Crisis: Why Vulnerability, Why Collapse?
How the Sick Man Avoided Pneumonia: The Philippines in the Asian Financial Crisis
Economic Shocks, Wealth and Welfare
Currency Market Reactions to Good and Bad News During the Asian Crisis
Asian Crisis: Distilling Critical Lessons
Stock Market Responses to Bank Restructuring Policies during the East Asian Crisis
Were the Peseta Exchange Rate Crises Forecastable During Target Zone Period?
Did the Malaysian Capital Controls Work?
Malaysia: Was it Different?
Malaysian Capital Controls
The Value of Relationship Banking during Financial Crises: Evidence from the Republic of Korea
Lending Booms: Latin America and the World
Reactions to the Thai economic crisis: informed critique of globalisation or utopia?
Between Meltdown and Moral Hazard: The International Monetary and Financial Policies of the Clinton Administration
Internal Capital Markets: An explanation of the Mexican recovery after the 1995 crisis
Crisis Dynamics of Implied Default Recovery Ratios: Evidence from Russia and Argentina
Econometric Modelling of Argentine Default
Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate during the Asian Crisis: Identification through Heteroscedasticity | Published
Abstract: This paper evaluates whether a tight monetary policy (i.e., an increase in the domestic interest rate) was successful in defending the exchange rate from speculativepressures during the Asian financial crisis. The empirical analysis applied to five Asian countries utilizes a bivariate VAR model, which is identified by taking intoaccount the heteroscedasticity properties of the time-series of interest, following Sentana and Fiorentini (1999). The empirical evidence shows that tight monetary policy did not help to stabilize the currencies under investigation.
Does Foreign Ownership Contribute to Sounder Banks in Emerging Markets? The Latin American Experience
A Leading Indicators Approach to the Predictability of Currency Crises in Turkey
Testing for Contagion during the Asian Crisis
Searching for New Regulatory Frameworks for the Intermediate Financial Structure in Post-Crisis Asia
The Asian Disease: Plausible Diagnoses, Possible Remedies, Regulation of Cross-Border Interbank Lending and Derivatives Trade
Lessons from the Russian Meltdown: The Economics of Soft Legal Constraints
Cronyism and Capital Controls: Evidence from Malaysia
The German Twin Crisis of 1931
Foreign Direct Investors in Three Financial Crises
Financial Crisis in Russia: The Behavior of Non-Residents
The Russian Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Central Asia
Capital Flows and Their Macroeconomic Effects in India
The Asian Financial Crisis: What Happened, and What is to be done
Accident waiting to happen? The Thai banking crisis of 1997
The Output Decline in Asian Crisis Countries: Investment Aspects
Banking Crises and Bank Resolution: Experiences in Some Transition Economies
Can Subsidiaries of Foreign Banks Contribute to the Stability of the Forex Market in Emerging Economies? A Look at Some Evidence from the Mexican Financial System
Who Panics During Panics? Evidence from a Nineteenth Century Savings Bank
Are branch banks better survivors? Evidence from the Depression era
Banking and finance in Argentina in the period 1900-35
Capital Controls in Chile: Effective? Efficient?
A Practical Guide to Managing Systemic Financial Crises: A Review of Approaches Taken in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand
Popular Reaction to the Intervention by the IMF in the Korean Economic Crisis
Lending of Last Resort, Moral Hazard and Twin Crises: Lessons from the Bulgarian Financial Crisis 1996/1997
FX Short Positions, Balance Sheets and Financial Turbulence: An Interpretation of the Asian Financial Crisis
Russias financial markets boom, crisis and recovery 1995-2001, Lessons for Emerging Markets Investors
On the Predictability of Currency Crises: The Use of Indicators in the Case of Arab Countries
The Role of Capital Controls and Currency Regimes in the Asian Crisis
The German Twin Crisis of 1931
The Great Banks` Depression - Deposit Withdrawals in the German Crisis of 1931
Sovereign Default By Argentina: 'Slow Motion Train Crash' or Self-Fulfilling Crisis?
Contagion and Causality: An Empirical Investigation of Four Asian Crisis Episodes
Cross-Border Trading as a Mechanism for Capital Flight: ADRs and the Argentine Crisis | Published
Crony Lending: Thailand before the Financial Crisis
Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? | Published
Mis-Leading Indicators? The Argentinean Currency Crisis
Economic Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Crises: Some Evidence from Mexico | Published
Evaluating Currency Crises: The Case of European Monetary System
Re-Establishing Credible Nominal Anchors After a Financial Crisis: A Review of Recent Experience
Abstract: This paper studies the question of how to achieve monetary policy credibility and price stability after a financial crisis. We draw stylized facts and conclusions from ten recent cases: Brazil (1999); Bulgaria (1997); Ecuador (2000); Indonesia (1997); Korea (1997); Malaysia (1997); Mexico (1994), Russia (1998); Thailand (1997); and Turkey (2001). Among our conclusions, highlights include: (i) monetary policy alone cannot stabilize; (ii) floats bring nominal stability quickly in countries with low pre-crisis inflation and hard pegs have been at least narrowly successful for countries in deeper disarray; (iii) in floats, early and determined tightening brings nominal stability and does not appear more costly for output; (iv) monetary aggregate targeting rarely serves as a coherent framework for floats; informal or full-fledged inflation targeting offers more promise.
Does Central Bank Intervention Influence the Probability of a Speculative Attack? Evidence from the EMS
The Anatomy of a Multiple Crisis: Why was Argentina Special and What Can We Learn from It?
Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons
The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation
A Model of the Russian Crisis Development
The Price of Inconvertible Deposits: The Stock Market Boom during the Argentine Crisis
Indonesia - Anatomy of a Banking Crisis - Two Years of Living Dangerously - 1997-99
The value of banking relationships during a financial crisis: Evidence from failures of Japanese banks
The Japanese banking crisis and economic growth: Theoretical and empirical implications of deposit guarantees and weak financial regulation
Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: Filling in the "hollow middle"
What can we learn from the current crisis in Argentina?
The Role of Economic Fundamentals in Explaining Indonesian Currency Crisis
Mitsubishi Bank under the Showa Financial Crisis, 1927: The Crisis observed thorough the Daily Financial Data
Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries
Interest rate rules and multiple equilibria in the small open economy
Do Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Controls Vary by Their Type? Evidence from Malaysia
The Late 1990s Financial Crisis in Ecuador: Institutional Weaknesses, Fiscal Rigidities, and Financial Dollarization at Work
Does Economic Crisis Reduce Support for Markets and Democracy in Latin America? Lessons from Surveys of Public Opinion and Well Being
Turkish Currency Crisis of 2000-1, Revisited
Asian Crises: Theory, Evidence, Warning-Signals
Dynamic Adjustment of Corporate Leverage: Is there a lesson to learn from the Recent Asian Crisis?
Comparison between Asian, Russian and Turkish financial crises
Worsening of the Asian Financial Crisis: Who is to Blame?
Gender Bias and The Indonesian Financial Crisis: Were Girls Hit Hardest?
Devaluation Beliefs and Debt Crisis: The Argentinian Case
Fear of Sudden Stops: Lessons from Australia and Chile | Alternative
Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Went Wrong?
Causal Relationships Between Exchange Rates And Stock Prices In Malaysia And Thailand During The 1997 Currency Crisis Turmoil
Sources Of Asian Currency Crisis
Firm Dynamics, Investment, and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994 | Published
Tango with the Gringo: The Hard Peg and Real Misalignment in Argentina
Misleading indicators? The Argentinean currency crisis
Foreign Banks in Emerging Market Crises: Evidence from Malaysia
Macroeconomic Crisis and Individual Firm Performance: The Mexican Experience
Looking for risk premium and contagion in Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets
Crisis transmission: Some evidence from the Asian financial crisis
The Role of Firm Size in Controlling Output Volatility during the Asian Financial Crisis
Trade Finance and Trade Flows: Panel Data Evidence from 10 Crises
Banking Crisis in Japan
The Asian Financial Crisis in Retrospect: What Happened? What Can We Conclude?
Capital Flows and Financial Crises: A Comparative Analysis of East Asia (1997-98) and Argentina (2001-02)
External Currency Pricing and the East Asian Crisis | Published
Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies: A Comparative Empirical Treatment
Were Bid-Ask Spreads in the FX Market Excessive During the Asian Crisis?
Lasting Local Impacts of an Economywide Crisis
Policy Mix, Public Debt Management, and Fiscal Rules: Lessons from the 2002 Brazilian Crisis
The 1997–1998 Korean crisis: Domestic or external causes?
Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey
REVIEW PAPER
International Borrowing and Macroeconomic Performance in Argentina
The Asian financial crisis: The role of derivative securities trading and foreign investors in Korea
Making Explosive Cocktails: recipes and costs for 26 Crises from 1823 to 2003
IMF-related news and emerging financial markets
Deposit drains on “interest-paying” banks before financial crises
German Bank Lending During Financial Crises: A Bank Level Analysis
Speculative Attacks on Nordic Exchange-Rates, 1971-1992
Bargaining and Sustainability: The Argentine Debt Swap of 2005
Towards a new set of leading indicators of currency crisis for developing countries: An application to Argentina
An Analysis of the 2002 Uruguayan Banking Crisis
Banks During the Argentine Crisis: Were They All Hurt Equally? Did They All Behave Equally? | Published
Malaysian Capital Controls: Macroeconomics and Institutions
Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Economic activity, foreign exchange rate, and the interest rate during the Asian crisis
The Korean Crisis: What Did We Know and When Did We Know It? What Stress Tests of the Corporate Sector Reveal
Evaluating the Success of Malaysia’s Exchange Controls (1998-99)
The Role of Information Disclosure and Uncertainty in the 1994/95 Mexican Peso Crisis: Empirical Evidence
Is East Asia Safe from Financial Crises?
Foreign exchange markets in south-east Asia 1990-2004: An empirical analysis of spillovers during crisis and non-crisis periods
Explaining Korea’s Lower Investment Levels After the Crisis
Investment During the Korean Financial Crisis: A Structural Econometric Approach | Alternative
Abstract: Without capital market imperfections, the capital structure of a firm, including the size, the maturity and the currency composition of debts, should not matter for investment decisions. The Asian financial crises provide a good opportunity to test this hypothesis. We approach the problem in two ways: First, we apply a conventional reduced-form analysis to a panel data of Korean manufacturing firms, arguing that the devaluation that occurred during the crisis provides a natural experiment in which to assess the effect of balance sheet shocks to investment. Second, we use indirect inference to estimate a structural dynamic programming problem of a firm with foreign debts and financial constraints. Both reduced-form evidence and structural parameter estimates imply an important role for finance in investment at the firm level. Counterfactual simulations imply that balance sheet effects may account for 50% to 80% of t he drop in investment during the crisis period. Although our estimates suggest that foreign denominated debt had relatively little effect on aggregate investment spending for the Korean economy during this crisis episode, counterfactual experiments imply sizeable contractions in investment through this mechanism for economies that are more heavily dependent on foreign-denominated debt.
Asian Currency Crises: Do Fundamentals still Matter? A Markov-Switching Approach to Causes and Timing
The Asian Crisis: a Perspective after Ten Years
Ten Years After: Financial Crisis Redux or Constructive Regional Financial and Monetary Cooperation?
Japan’s banking crisis: An event-study perspective
Does post-crisis restructuring decrease the availability of banking services? The case of Turkey
Operational Hedges and Foreign-Exchange Exposure: The Experience of U.S. MNCs During the Asian Financial Crisis
Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets
Currency Crisis Theories – Some Explanations for the Russian Case
Financing Constraint and Firm-Level Investment Following a Financial Crisis in Indonesia
The Asian Crisis Contagion: A Dynamic Correlation Approach Analysis
Changing Dynamics of the East Asian Real Exchange Rates after the Financial Crisis: Further Evidence on Mean Reversion
Currency crises in transition economies: some further evidence
Psychological health before, during, and after an economic crisis: results from Indonesia, 1993 - 2000
Capital Flows and Economic Fluctuations: The Role of Commercials Banks in Transmitting Shocks
Bank failures and bank fundamentals: A comparative analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the nineties using bank-level data
Subnational insolvency : cross-country experiences and lessons
Internal Debt Crises and Sovereign Defaults
Self-fulfilling and Self-enforcing Debt Crises
A neoclassical analysis of the Korean crisis
Information flows during the Asian crisis: Evidence from closed-end funds
Too-big-to-fail: Bank failure and banking policy in Jamaica
Markov switching GARCH models of currency turmoil in Southeast Asia
Central Bank Involvement in Banking Crises in Latin America
Globalization, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America
The impact of sovereign rating changes and financial contagion on stock market returns: Evidence from five Asian countries
Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies
The Korean financial crisis and the soft budget constraint
Central Bank Response to the 2007-08 Financial Market Turbulence: Experiences and Lessons Drawn
The Asian financial crisis, uphill flow of capital, and global imbalances: evidence from a micro study
Dollarization as an Investment Signal in Developing Countries: The Case of Croatia, Czech Republic, Peru, Slovak Republic and Turkey
Industrialization after a Deep Economic Crisis: Indonesia
Policy Responses to Sudden Stops in Capital Flows: The Case of Chile in 1998
Financial Crisis, Firm Dynamics and Aggregate Productivity in Japan
From Bear Stearns to Anglo Irish: How Eurozone Sovereign Spreads Related to Financial Sector Vulnerability
Unless otherwise stated, all works on this page are copyrighted to their respective authors/institutions.
de Vries, C.G., P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans (2004)
Hwang, S. & M. Salmon (2004)
de los Rios, A.D. (2004)
Chakravorti, S. & S. Lall (2004)
Fernandez-Izquierdo, A. & J.A. Lafuente (2004)
Goenka, A. & M. Boschi (2004)
Broner, F.A., R.G. Gelos & C. Reinhart (2004/06)
Ellison, M., L. Graham & J. Vilmunen (2005/06)
Pavlova, A. & R. Rigobon (2005)
Fujii, E. (2005)
Ilyina, A. (2005)
Candelon, B., A. Hecq & W.F.C. Verschoor (2005)
Didier, T., P. Mauro & S.L. Schmukler (2006)
Allen, F. & E. Carletti (2006)
Boissay, F. (2005)
Gieseckea, K. & S. Weber (2006)
Keister, T. (2006)
Boyson, N.M., C.W. Stahel & R.M. Stultz (2006)
Gropp, R., M.L. Duca & J. Versala (2006)
Gebka, B. & D. Serwa (2006)
Marais, E. & S. Bates (2006)
Aliprantis, C.D., G. Camera & D. Puzzello (2007)
Jokipii, T. & B. Lucey (2007)
Vaugirard, V. (2007)
Chan-Lau, J.A., S. Mitra & L.L. Ong (2007)
Pentecote, J-S. (2007)
Hon, M.T., J.K. Strauss & S-K. Yong (2007)
Egloff, D., M. Leippold & P. Vanini (2007)
Massacci, D. (2007)
Fazio, G. (2007)
van den Berg, J., B. Candelon & J-P. Urbain (2008)
Didier, T., P. Mauro & S.L. Schmukler (2008)
Hasman, A. & M. Samartín (2008)
Beirne, J., G. Maria Caporale, M. Schulze-Ghattas & N. Spagnolo (2008)
Eichengreen, B., A. Mody, M. Nedeljkovic & L. Sarno (2009)
Frank, N. & H. Hesse (2009)
Psalida, L.E. & T. Sun (2009)
Chandar, N., D.K. Patro & A. Yezegel (2009)
Balakrishnan, R., S. Danninger, S. Elekdag, & I. Tytell (2009)
Currency Crises
van Wijnbergen, S. (1987)
Obstfeld, M. (1994)
Calvo, G.A. & E. Mendoza (1994)
Kaminsky, G., S. Lizondo & C.M. Reinhart (1997)
Krugman, P. (1998)
REVIEW PAPER
Flood, R. & N. Marion (1998)
Corsetti, G., P. Pesenti & N. Roubini (1998)
Pesenti, P. and C. Tille (1999)
Wei, S.J. (2000)
Nitithanprapas, E. & T.D. Willett (2000)
Schinasi, G.J. & R.T. Smith (2000)
Osband, K. & C. Van Rijckeghem (2000)
Chang, M. (2000)
Dornbusch, R. (2001)
Chakravorti, S. & S. Lall (2001)
Disyatat, P. (2001)
Wei, S.J. & Wu, Y. (2001)
Edwards, S. (2001)
Corsetti, G., P. Pensenti & N. Roubini (2001)
Dooley, M. & J. Frankel, Editors (2001)
Dooley, M. & S. Verma (2001)
Hutchinson, M.M. (2001)
Glick, R. & M. Hutchison (2001)
Shin, H.S., G. Corsetti, A. Dasgupta & S. Morris (2001)
Tudela, M. M. (2001)
Caballero, R.J. & A. Krishnamurthy (2001)
Peria, M.S.M., M. Bordo, B. Eichengreen & D. Klingebeld (2001)
Aghion, P., P. Bacchetta & A. Banerjee (2001)
Edwards, S. (2001)
Frankel, J. and N. Roubini (2001)
Zhang, Z. (2001)
Morris, S. (2001)
Bris, A., Y. Koskinen & V. Pons (2001)
Black, S., C. Christofides & A.T. Mourmouras (2001)
Prati, A. & M. Sbracia (2002)
Wyplosz, C. (2002)
Kumar, M.S., U. Moorthy & W. Perraudin (2002)
Tanner, E.C. (2002)
Cavallo, M., K. Kisselev, F. Perri & N. Roubini (2002)
Lipschitz, L.J., T.D. Lane & A.T. Mourmouras (2002)
Ghosh, S.R. & A.R. Ghosh (2002)
Osler, C.L. (2002/2005)
Waldmann, R. (2002)
Marini, G. & G. Piersanti (2002)
Bleaney, M. &Amp; M. Gundermann (2002)
Boinet, V. (2002)
Eijffinger, S. & B. Goderis (2002)
Saqib, O.F. (2002)
Siebert, H. (2002)
Gower, L. & A. Krause (2002)
Femminis, G. (2003)
Aizenman, J., K.M. Kletzer & B. Pinto (2002)
Illera, R.M., F.P. Bermejo & S. Sosvilla-Rivero (2002)
Arteta, C. (2003)
Kraay, A. (2003)
Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum & S. Rebelo (2003/06)
Pozo, S. & C. Amuedo-Dorantes (2003)
Chamley, C. (2003)
Bauer, C. (2003)
Cornell, C.M. (2003)
Erturk, K. (2003)
Cheng, Y-S., C-S. Chan & C-Y. Sin (2003)
Drazen, A. & S. Hubrich (2003)
Guimaraes, B. & S. Morris (2003/07)
Bubula, A. & I. Otker-Robe (2003)
Gupta, P., D. Mishra & R. Sahay (2003/07)
Kaminsky, G.L. (2004)
Feenstra, R.C. & G.H. Hanson (2004)
Kasa, K. (2004)
Goldstein, M. & P. Turner (2004)
Tillmann, P. (2004)
Sole, J. (2004)
Desai, M.A., C.F. Foley & K.J. Forbes (2004)
REVIEW PAPER
Saxena, S.C. (2004)
Heinemann, F., R. Nagel & P. Ockenfels (2004)
Pavan, A., G.M. Angeletos & C. Hellwig (2004/07)
Giannetti, M. (2004)
Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum & S. Rebelo (2004)
Aghion, P., P. Bacchetta & A. Banerjee (2004)
Williamson, J. (2004)
Koeniger, W., M. Bussiere & M. Fratzscher (2004)
Obstfeld, M. & K. Rogoff (2004)
Honga, K. & A. Tornell (2004)
Inoue, A. & B. Rossi (2005)
Hellwig, C., A. Mukherji & A. Tsyvinski (2005)
Flood, R.P. & O. Jeanne (2005)
Kaufmann, D., G. Mehrez & S.L. Schmukler (2005)
Frankel, J.A. (2005)
Gagnon, J.E. (2005)
Aguiar, M. & F. Broner (2005/06)
Anastasatos, T. & I.R. Davidson (2005)
Botman, D.P.J. & C.G.H. Diks (2005)
Guimarães, B. (2005)
Röthig, A., W. Semmler & P. Flaschel (2006)
Minguez-Afonso, G. (2006)
Röthig, A., W. Semmler & P. Flaschel (2006)
Mackowiak, B. (2006/07)
Angeletos, G-M, C. Hellwig & A. Pavan (2006)
Corsetti, G. & B. Mackowiak (2006)
Kemme, D.M. & S. Roy (2006)
Cornell, C.M. & R.H. Solomon (2006/07)
Haile, F.D. & S. Pozo (2006)
Deb, S. (2006)
Cornand, C. (2006)
Matesanz Gómez, D. & G.J. Ortega (2006)
Garcia-Fronti, M.H. Miller & L. Zhang (2007)
Klaassen, F. & H. Jager (2006)
Bertoli, S., G. Gallo & G. Ricchiuti (2007)
Hale, G. & C. Arteta (2007)
Eijffinger, S.C.W. & B. Goderis (2007/08)
Chelia, B. & P.D. Posta (2007)
Chen, S-S. (2007)
Shimpalee, P.L. & J.B. Breuer (2007)
Eijffinger, S.C.W. & B. Goderis (2007)
Broner, F.A. (2007/08)
Kumah, F.Y. (2007)
Goderis, B. & V.P. Ioannidou (2008)
Aßmann, C. (2008)
Cuaresma, J.C. & T. Slacik (2008)
Bergman, U.M. & S. Hassan (2008)
Dobrynskaya, V.V. (2008)
Mouratidis, K. (2008)
Brunnermeier, M.K., S. Nagel & L.H. Pedersen (2008)
Childs, J. (2008)
Daniels, T.R., H. Jager & F. Klaassen (2008)
Chong, T.T.L., Q. He & M.J. Hinich (2009)
Garita, G. &am; C. Zhou (2009)
Gagnon, J.E. (2009)
Sulimierska, M. (2009)
Daniëls, T., H. Jager & F. Klaassen (2009)
Hui, C.H. C.F. Lo (2009)
Licchetta, M. (2009)
Dai, M. (2009)
Farhi, E., S.P. Fraiberger, X. Gabaix, R. Ranciere & A. Verdelhan (2009)
Financial Stability & Supervision
BIS (Various) (2000)
J.R. Macey & M. O'Hara (2001)
Mishkin, F.S. (2001)
Jahjah, S. (2001)
Kahn, C.M. & J.A.C. Santos (2001)
Kane, E.J. & A. Demirguc-Kunt (2001)
Lin, J.L. & C.S. Wu (2001)
Kamin, S.B., J.W. Schindler & S.L. Samuel (2001)
Bussiere, M. & M. Fratzscher (2002/06)
IMF (Mar 2002)
IMF (Jun 2002)
IMF (Sep 2002)
IMF (Dec 2002)
Abiad, A. (2003)
Martinez, J.L. & T.A. Rose (2003)
IMF (Mar 2003)
IMF (Sep 2003)
Chami, R., M.S. Khan & S. Sharma (2003)
Deutsche Bundesbank (Various) (2003)
Gros, D. (2003)
Valev, N.T. & J.A. Carlson (2003)
Goodhart, C.A.E., P. Sunirand & D.T. Tsomocos (2004)
Chan-Lau, J., A. Jobert & J. Kong (2004)
IMF (April 2004)
Arias, G. & U. Erlandsson (2004)
Berg, A., E.R. Borensztein & C.A. Pattillo (2004)
Berg, A. & R.N. Coke (2004)
Das, U.S., M.G. Quintyn & K. Chenard (2004)
Currie, C. (2004)
Houben, A., J. Kakes & G.J. Schinasi (2004)
Aizenman, J. & B. Pinto (2004)
Castro, J.F., E. Moron & D. Winkelried (2004)
IMF (Sep 2004)
Sy, A.N.R. (2004)
Calomiris, C., D. Klingebiel & L. Laeven (2004)
Levine, R. (2004)
Schinasi, G.J. (2004)
Loayza, N. & R. Ranciere (2004)
Pontines, V. & V. Siregar (2004)
Herring, R.J. (2004)
Servén, L. & P.J. Montiel (2004)
De Vries, C.G. (2005)
Cordella, T. & E.L. Yeyati (2005)
Smith, R.T. & H. van Egteren (2005)
Aizenman, J. (2005)
IMF (April 2004)
Ishihara, Y. (2005)
Ribakova, E. (2005)
Beck, T., A. Demirgüç-Kunt & R. Levine (2005)
Gapen, M.T., D.F. Gray, C.H. Lim & Y. Xiao (2005)
Loayza, N. & R. Ranciere (2005)
Dell'Ariccia, G. & R.S. Marquez (2005)
Ostry, J.D. & J. Zettelmeyer (2005)
Beckmann, D., L. Menkhoff & K. Sawischlewski (2005)
Apoteker, T. & S. Barthélémy (2005)
Avesani, R. (2005)
Pennacchi, G. (2006)
Cihák, M. & R. Podpiera (2006)
Peltonen, T.A. (2006)
Ramakrishnan, U. & J. Zalduendo (2006)
IMF (April 2006)
Lin, C-S., H.A. Khan, Y-C. Wang & R-Y. Chang (2006)
Chan Lau, J.A. (2006)
Avesani, R.G., A. Garcia Pascual & J. Li (2006)
Aka, B.E. (2006)
Easterly, W. (2006)
Boot, A.W.A. & M. Marinc (2006)
Schaeck, K., M. Cihák & S. Wolfe (2006)
Kim, J.I. (2006)
Cihák, M. (2006)
IMF (Sep 2006)
Alexander, G.J. & A.M. Baptista (2006)
Groome, T., N.R. Blancher, F. Haas, J. Kiff, W. Lee, P.S. Mills, S. Nakagawa, P. Ramlogan, O. Khadarina & Y.S. Kim (2006)
Basurto, M.A.S., C.A.E. Goodhart & B. Hofmann (2006)
Goodhart, C.A.E. (2006)
Sordi, S. & A. Vercelli (2006)
Cuaresma, J.C. & T. Slacik (2007)
Dees, S., S. Holly, M.H. Pesaran & L.V. Smith (2007)
Bordo, M.D. (2007)
Arnone, M., S.M. Darbar & A. Gambini (2007)
IMF (Apr 2007)
Xafa, M. (2007)
Kambhu, J., T. Schuermann & K.J. Stiroh (2007)
Weill, P-O. (2007)
Cuaresma, J.C. & T. Slacik (2007)
Honohan, P. (2007)
IMF (Sep 2007)
Nieto, M. & G.J. Schinasi (2007)
Chamon, M., P. Manasse & A. Prati (2007)
Cihák, M. & K. Schaeck (2007)
Cihák, M. & H. Hesse (2008)
Masciandaro, D. & M. Quintyn (2008)
Tchana Tchana, F. (2008)
IMF (Apr 2008)
Akram, Q.F. & O. Eitrheim (2008)
Repullo, R. & J. Suarez (2008)
Masciandaro, D., M. Quintyn & M. Taylor (2008)
Laeven, L. & R. Levine (2008)
Barth, J.R., C. Gerard, Jr. & R. Levine (2008)
Beck, T. (2008)
Cihák, M. & A.F. Tieman (2008)
Obstfeld, M., J.C. Shambaugh & A.M. Taylor (2008)
Moretti, M., S. Stolz & M. Swinburne (2008)
Nier, E. & L. Zicchino (2008)
IMF (Oct 2008)
Jeanne, O., J.D. Ostry & J. Zettelmeyer (2008)
Aumann, R.J. & R. Serrano (2008)
Shaffer, S. & S. Hoover (2008)
de Walque, G., O. Pierrard & A. Rouabah (2008)
Gollier, J-M. (2008)
Segoviano Basurto, M.A. & C.A.E. Goodhart (2009)
Shin, H.S. (2009)
Aizenman, J. (2009)
Singh, M. & C. Spackman (2009)
de Walque, G., O. Pierrard & A. Rouabah (2009)
Nier, E. (2009)
IMF (Apr 2009)
Baur, D.G. & N. Schulze (2009)
Shleifer, A. & R.W. Vishny (2009)
Cardarelli, R., S. Elekdag & S. Lall (2009)
Galai, D. & Z. Wiener (2009)
Sy, A.N.R. (2009)
Sovereign Debt Crises
Miller, M. & L. Zhang (1999)
Chui, M., P. Gui & A.G. Haldane (2001)
Truman, T. (2001)
Becker, T.I., A.J. Richards & Y. Thaicharoen (2001)
Paasche, B. & S. Zin (2002)
Rogoff, K. & J. Zettelmeyer (2002)
Kremer, M. & S. Jayachandran (Jul 2002)
Rogoff, K. & J. Zettelmeyer (2002)
Catao, L.A. & B.W. Sutton (2002)
IMF (2002)
Uribe, M. (2002)
Bhatia, A.V. (2002)
Razin, A. & E. Sadka (2003)
Chan-Lau, J. (2003)
Sy, A.N. (2003)
de Araujo, A.P. & M.S. Leon (2003)
Jahjah, S. & P. Montiel (2003)
Singh, M. (2003)
Eichengreen, B., K. Kletzer & A. Mody (2003)
Manasse, P., N. Roubini & A. Schimmelpfennig (2003)
Kraeussl, R. (2003)
Haldane, A.G., G. Irwin & V. Saporta (2004)
Pescatori, A. & A.N. Sy (2004)
Kruger, M. & M. Messmacher (2004)
Stein, J. (2003)
Chamon, M. (2004/06)
Jeanne, O. (2004)
de Britto, P.A. (2004)
Akemann, M. & F. Kanczuk (2004)
Stein, J. (2004)
Portes, R. (2004)
Manasse, P. & N. Roubini (2005/09)
Singh, M. & J.R. Andritzky (2005)
Sturzenegger, F. & J. Zettelmeyer (2005/08)
Ciarlone, A. & G. Trebeschi (2005)
Thimann, C., T. Bracke, P-F. Weber & C. Just (2005)
Kozack, J. (2005)
Cohen, D & R. Portes (2006)
Sole, J. (2006)
de Bolle, M.B., I. Hakobyan & B. Rother (2006)
Sturzenegger, F. & J. Zettelmeyer
Noy, I. (2008)
Arteta, C. & G. Hale (2008)
Mendoza, E.G. & V.Z. Yue
Arellano, C. & A. Ramanarayanan (2008)
Parra, S.N. (2008)
Stock Market Crashes
Barlevy, G. & P. Veronesi (2003)
Kapopoulos, P. & F. Siokis (2005)
Lagos, R., G. Rocheteau & P-O. Weill (2007)
Levy, M. (2007)
Frankel, D.M. (2008)
Borensztein, E. & U. Panizza (2008)
Christiano, L., C. Ilut, R. Motto & M. Rostagno (2008)
Barro, R.J. & J.F. Ursua (2009)
Wang, J., G. Meric, Z. Liu & I. Meric (2009)
Twin Crises
Kaminsky, G. & C. Reinhart (1999)
Kindleberger, C.P. & R.Z. Aliber (2005)
Burnside, C., M. Eichenbaum & S. Rebelo (2001)
Glick, R. & M.M. Hutchison (2001)
Flood, R.P. & N.P. Marion (2001)
Feldstein, M. (2002)
Chang, R. & A. Velasco (2002)
Mendoza, E.G. & K.A. Smith (2002)
Hutchison, M. & I. Neuberger (2002)
Bauer, C., B. Herz & V. Karb (2003)
Komulainen, T. & J. Lukkarila (2003)
Dreher, A., B. Herz & V. Karb (2004)
Solomon, R.H. (2004)
REVIEW PAPER
Breuer, J.B. (2004)
Rajan, R.G. (2004)
Goldstein, I. (2005)
Ishihara, Y. (2005)
Goldstein, M. (2005)
Pescatori, A. & A.N.R. Sy (2007)
Dooley, M.P., D. Folkerts-Landau & P.M. Garber (2008)
Bleaney, M., S. Bougheas & I. Skamnelos (2008)
Maltritz, D. (2008)
Herz, B. & H. Tong (2008)
Schnabel, I. (2009)
Singh, R. (2009)
Bagliano, F.B. & C. Morana (2009)
Country/Region/Episodal Studies
Visser, H., & J. Wengel (1999)
Corbett, J., G. Irwin & D. Vines (1999)
Noland, M. (2000)
Frankenberg, E., J.P. Smith & D. Thomas (2000)
Jo, G.J. & T.D. Willett (2000)
Das, D.K. (2000)
Klingebiel, D., R. Kroszner, L. Laeven & P. van Oijen (2001)
Campos, M.I. & Z. Jiménez-Ridruejo (2001)
Kaplan, E. & D. Rodrick (2001)
Dornbusch, R. (2001)
Hood, R. (2001)
Ferri, G., T.S. Kang & I.J. Kim (2001)
Pierre-Olivier, G., R. Valdés & O. Landerretche (2001)
Hewison, K. (2001)
J.B. DeLong & B. Eichengreen (2001)
Castañeda, G. (2001)
Merrik, J. (2001)
Garegnani, M.L. & H. Ahumada (2001)
Caporale, G., A. Cipollini & P. Demetriades (2001)
Crystal, J.S., B.G. Dages & L.S. Goldberg (2001)
Kibritcioglu, B., B. Kose & G. Ugur (2001)
Thanyalakpark, K. & D. Filson (2001)
Shirai, S. (2001)
Mayer, M. (2001)
Perotti, E. (2001)
Johnson, S. & T. Mitton (2001)
Gödde, I. (2001)
Lipsey, R.E. (2001)
Medvedev, A. & G. Kolodyazhny (2001)
Pastor, G.C. & T. Damjanovic (2001)
Kohli, R. (2001)
Sachs, J.D. & W.T. Woo (2001)
Mullineux, A., V. Murinde & A. Pinijkulviwat (2001)
Greene, J.E. (2002)
Enoch, C.A., A.M. Gulde & D.C. Hardy (2002)
Reynoso, A. (2002)
Grada, C.O. & E.N. White (2002)
Carlson, M. (2002)
Nakamura, L. & C.E.J.M. Zarazaga (2002)
Gallego, F., L. Hernández & K. Schmidt-Hebbel (2002)
Scott, D. (2002)
Hayo, B. & D.C. Shin (2002)
Berlemann, M., K. Hristov & N. Nenovsky (2002)
Neftci, S.N. (2002)
Sueppel, R. (2002)
Dahel, R. (2002)
Nitithanprapas, I. & T.D. Willett (2002)
Schnabel, I. (2002)
Schnabel, I. (2002)
Fronti, J., M. Miller & L. Zhang (2002)
Kleimeier, S. & H. Sander (2002)
Auguste, S., K.M.E. Dominguez, H. Kamil & L. Tesar (2002/06)
Wiwattanakantang, Y. & R.K.C. Charumilind (2003)
Cerra, V. & S. Saxena (2003)
Plata, P.A. & M. Schrooten (2003)
Bratsiotis, G.J. & W. Robinson (2003)
Mouratidis, K. & N. Spagnolo (2003)
Berg, A., C. Jarvis, M. Stone & A. Zanello (2003)
Stix, H. (2003)
Perry, G. & L. Servén (2003)
Calvo, G.A., A. Izquierdo & E. Talvi (2003)
Alvarez-Plata, P. & M. Schrooten (2003)
Gurvich, E. & A. Andryakov (2003)
Levy-Yeyati, E., S. Schmukler & N. Van Horen (2003)
Enoch, C., B. Baldwin, O. Frecaut & A. Kovanen (2001)
Brewer III, E., H. Genay, W.C. Hunter & G.G. Kaufman (2003)
Deckle, R. & K.M. Kletzer (2003)
Hernández, L. & P.J. Montiel (2003)
Kehoe, T.J. (2003)
Khusaini, M. (2003)
Okazaki, T. (2003)
Lestano, J.J & H. Kuper (2003)
Zanna, L-F. (2003)
Tamirisa, N.T. (2004)
Jacome H., L.I. (2004)
Graham, C. & S. Sukhtankar (2004)
Ekinci, N.K. & K.A. Erturk (2004)
Stein, J. & G.C. Lim (2004)
Driffield, N., V. Mahambare & S. Pal (2004)
Lukkarila, J. (2004)
Kutan, A.M. & B.G. Sudjana (2004)
Levine, D. & M. Ames (2004)
Da-Rocha, J-M., E.L. Gimenez & F-X. Lores (2004)
Caballero, R.J., K. Cowan & J. Kearns (2004)
Daumont, R., F. Le Gall & F. Leroux (2004)
Hussain, H. & V.K-S. Liew (2004)
Majid, M.Z.A. & M.B. Yusoff (2004)
Pratap, S. & C. Urrutia (2004)
Servén, L., E. Alberola & H. Lopez (2004)
Alvarez-Plata, P. & M. Schrooten (2004)
Detragiache, E. & P. Gupta (2004)
Watkins, K., D. van Dijk & J. Spronk (2004)
Tai, C-S. (2004)
Gong, S-C. T-P. Lee & Y-M. Chen (2004)
Chen, H-J. & H-T. Hsu (2004)
Ronci, M. (2004)
Vattipalli, K. (2004)
Joosten, W. (2004)
Bustelo, P. (2004)
Cook, D. & M.B. Devereux (2004/06)
Fontaine, T. (2005)
Becker, T.I. & A.N.R. Sy (2005)
Lokshin, M.M. & M. Ravallion (2005)
Herrera, S. (2005)
Robert, M.Y. (2005)
Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & E. Detragiache (2005)
Dominguez, K.M.E. & L.L. Tesar (2005)
Ghysels, E. & J. Seon (2005)
Amado, N.A., A.M. Cerro & O. Meloni (2005)
Hayo, B. & A.M. Kutan (2005)
Hoag, C. (2005)
Heid, F., T. Nestmann, N. von Westernhagen & B. Weder
Forsman, M-O. (2005)
Dhillon, A., J. Fronti, S. Ghosal & M.H. Miller (2005)
Marongiu, F. (2005)
Sirtaine, S. & L. de la Plaza (2005)
Barajas, A., E. Basco, V.H. Juan-Ramon & C. Quarracino (2006/07)
Johnson, S., K. Kochhar, T. Mitton & N.T. Tamirisa (2006)
Ito, T. & K. Sato (2006)
Kim, J-K. & R.A. Ratti (2006)
Jones, M.T. & M. Karasulu (2006)
Abbas, S.M.A. (2006)
Bannier, C.E. (2006)
Wyplosz, C. (2007)
Mandilaras, A. & G. Bird (2007)
Kinkyo, T. (2007)
Gilchrist, S. & J.W. Sim (2007)
Santoso, B. & N.J. Horsewood (2007)
Corden, W.M. (2007)
Yap, J.T. (2007)
Miyajima, H. & Y. Yafeh (2007)
Damar, H.E. (2007)
Francis, B., I. Hasan & C. Pantzalis (2007)
Chiang, T.C., B.N. Jeon & H. Li (2007)
Komulainen, T. (2007)
Prasetyantoko, A. (2007)
Essaadi, E., J. Jouini & W. Khallouli (2007)
Baharumshah, A.Z., T-H. Chan & R. Aggarwal (2007)
Liargovas, P. & D. Dapontas (2007)
Friedman, J. & D. Thomas (2007)
Zhou, Y.S. (2008)
Arena, M. (2008)
Waibel, MN. & L. Liu (2008)
Arellano, C. & N.R. Kocherlakota (2008)
Cohen, D. & S. Villemot (2008)
Otsu, K. (2008)
Cohen, B.H. & E.M. Remolona (2008)
Daley, J., K. Matthews & K. Whitfield (2008)
Brunetti, C., C. Scotti, R.S. Mariano & A.H.H. Tan (2008)
Jácome, L.I. (2008)
Edwards, S. (2008)
Li, H., B.N. Jeon, S-Y. Cho & T.C. Chiang (2008)
Arellano, C. (2008)
Alexeev, M. & S. Kim (2008)
Chailloux, A., S. Gray, U.H. Klueh, S. Shimizu & P. Stella (2008)
Coulibaly, B. & J. Millar (2008)
Ozsoz, E., E.W. Rengifo & D. Salvatore (2008)
Aswicahyono, H., D. Narjoko & H. Hill (2008)
Valdes, R.O. (2008)
Hosono, K. (2009)
Mody, A. (2009)
International Financial Crises page copyright © 2001-2005 Jamus Jerome Lim.