News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

Consciously decoupling the US economy
Rana Foroohar (FT) Dec 1, 2019
America needs a coherent strategy to compete in a world with ascendant state capitalism.

Everything remains up for stakes in Hong Kong
Kerry Brown (EAF) Dec 1, 2019
It's as though a whole generation had become wedded to protest at whatever the cost and the administration which was meant to supply security had ran out of ideas'Kerry Brown sums up the situation in Hong Kong in this week's lead essay explaining that it's 'as though a whole generation had become wedded to protest at whatever the cost and the administration which was meant to supply security had ran out of ideas.

Hong Kong's Dimming Light Poses an Urgent Question
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 1, 2019
A city that rose on the back of chaos has seen its fortunes turn. Can it survive as Asia's leading financial center?

MSCI Starts Closing Its Open Door to China
Nisha Gopalan (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 1, 2019
Setting new conditions for adding more Chinese companies to its indexes could put out US political fire.

Germany's Crisis Is a Very Good Thing
Andreas Kluth (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 1, 2019
The SPD's new leadership may stop cooperating with Angela Merkel. The outcome could be surprisingly positive for Europe.

The China Shock and employment in Portuguese firms
Lee Branstetter, Brian Kovak, Jackie Mauro, and Ana Venâncio (VoxEU) Dec 1, 2019
China's rise as an export powerhouse has affected labour markets across the Western world, but the effects appear to differ dramatically across countries. This column evaluates the impact of rising Chinese exports on Portuguese employment, finding that labour market effects are shaped by indirect competition and labour market regulation.

The Adaptive Age
Kristalina Georgieva (F&D) Dec 1, 2019
No institution or individual can stand on the sidelines in the fight against climate change.

Fifty Shades of Green
Mark Carney (F&D) Dec 1, 2019
The world needs a new, sustainable financial system to stop runaway climate change.

Climate Change and Financial Risk
Pierpaolo Grippa, Jochen Schmittmann, and Felix Suntheim (F&D) Dec 1, 2019
Central banks and financial regulators are starting to factor in climate change.

A Greener Future for Finance
Afsaneh Beschloss and Mina Mashayekhi (F&D) Dec 1, 2019
Green bonds offer lessons for sustainable finance.

China's private sector is pivotal to its economy
FT View Dec 2, 2019
Beijing's clampdown on liquidity has hurt private enterprise.

'Tourists' help fuel risky emerging market bond sales
Tommy Stubbington (FT) Dec 2, 2019
Low yields in developed world prompt investors to search further afield.

Eastern Europe risks growing too old to become rich
Beata Javorcik (FT) Dec 2, 2019
Improving governance is the best way to halt the spiral of demographic decline.

Mount Tariff Erupts Again
WSJ Dec 2, 2019
Trump hurts his re-election chances with more trade uncertainty.

Exports: Currency Devaluation Won't Grow the Economy
Frank Shostak (Mises Wire) Dec 2, 2019
When governments devalue the currency to push more exports, the country is getting rich in terms of foreign currency, but it is getting poor in terms of real wealth.

Development and Debt: Finding the Right Balance
Kristalina Georgieva (IMF) Dec 2, 2019
Countries are seeking to find the right balance between financing development and safeguarding debt sustainability, between investing in people and upgrading infrastructure, between long-term development objectives and pressing immediate needs.

The Adaptive Age
Kristalina Georgieva (IMF) Dec 2, 2019
Ready or not, we are entering an age of adaptation. And we need to be smart about it.

Investors, There's No China Trade Deal You're Going to Like
Christopher Smart (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 2, 2019
Even if modest progress is made, the relationship won't revert to the way it was.

India's Economy Needs Modi to Reinvent Himself — Again
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 2, 2019
The welfare state is running out of money. Time to champion free trade and competition.

Fed's Symmetric Inflation Approach May Benefit Markets
Timothy A Duy (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 2, 2019
Even if consumer price gains accelerate, the central bank is likely to keep rates lower for longer than anticipated.

The World's Hanging on the U.S. Consumer's Health
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 2, 2019
It's strong enough to resist crisis, even if there are danger signs.

Germany's Car Jobs Boom Comes to a Screeching Halt
Chris Bryant (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 2, 2019
Unlike its Detroit rivals, the German auto industry didn't have to slash its workforce in the last recession. How times are changing.

What If Companies Get Big Because They're Better?
Peter R Orszag (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 2, 2019
New research suggests that industry concentration just reflects the superior productivity of superstar firms. Are you listening, trust-busters?

The U.S. Economy Keeps Defying the Recession Odds
Noah Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 2, 2019
There are plenty of risks, but none seem sure to bring an end to the longest postwar expansion.

Trump Doesn't Understand Currency Wars, Either
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 2, 2019
His misguided decision to reinstate steel tariffs on Brazil and Argentina misses one thing: Depressed currencies mean they are the losers.

$180 Billion Can Fix a Lot of Policy Errors
Daniel Moss and David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 2, 2019
It just needs to address one. Japan's misguided sales-tax hike makes a big fiscal package inevitable.

This Philippine City Is the Most Typical Place in the World
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 2, 2019
By a variety of measures, Cebu is remarkably representative of the rest of the globe.

The UK and the EU Should Prevent Mutual Assured Damage
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Dec 2, 2019
Assuming Brexit happens, future historians will probably remember 2020 as the year when an enfeebled and vulnerable Europe chose to make itself feebler and more vulnerable. The task for its leaders now is to avoid making matters even worse.

The AI Frontier of Economic Theory
Thomas J. Sargent (Project Syndicate) Dec 2, 2019
Until recently, data sets were small and costly, and computers were slow and expensive. So it is natural that as gains in computing power have dramatically reduced these impediments, economists have rushed to use big data and artificial intelligence to help them spot patterns in all sorts of activities and outcomes.

Why Worry About Automation?
Christopher Pissarides (Project Syndicate) Dec 2, 2019
In previous periods of technological displacement of workers, economists like John Maynard Keynes and Wassily Leontief worried that too few new jobs would be created to prevent higher long-term unemployment. Today, facing an onrushing wave of digital automation, many share their misplaced unease.

The Problem With "Green" Monetary Policy
Otmar Issing (Project Syndicate) Dec 2, 2019
Although there is increasing support for the idea that central banks should actively contribute to the fight against climate change, monetary policymakers have no mandate to do so, and for good reason. Tackling climate change is – and must remain – the responsibility of elected governments and parliaments.

What Kind of Capitalism Do We Want?
Klaus Schwab (Project Syndicate) Dec 2, 2019
Though the concept of "stakeholder capitalism" has been around for a half-century, it has only recently begun to gain traction against the prevailing shareholder-primacy model of profit maximization. Now, advocates of a more socially conscious economic system must take steps to ensure that their vision takes hold for the long term.

The aggregate and distributional effects of financial globalisation
Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, and Jonathan D. Ostry (VoxEU) Dec 2, 2019
Free trade has contributed to a 'great convergence' of emerging market countries toward incomes in industrialised nations in recent decades. It is less clear whether free mobility of capital across national boundaries has conferred similar benefits. This column presents evidence suggesting that the gains in average incomes have been – at best – small, while increases in income inequality and the decline in the labour share of income have been significant. Financial globalisation thus poses far more difficult equity-efficiency trade-offs than free trade and should be at the centre of debates about how to make globalisation inclusive.

The return to protectionism
Pablo Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy, and Amit Khandelwal (VoxDev) Dec 2, 2019
The aggregate annual loss to US consumers from higher import prices as a result of the trade war with China could be as much as $68.8 billion.

Punting Our ECB Rate Cut Call
Erik Nelson (WF) Dec 2, 2019
We had previously called for a 10 bps rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) at its December meeting next week, but due to a series of developments since we made that call, we are pushing back our ECB rate cut call to March 2020.

Shake-up in Japanese stocks poised to drown out fundamentals
Leo Lewis (FT) Dec 3, 2019
Tokyo Stock Exchange rejig risks speculative betting by investors over new categories.

The IMF supertanker may be changing course
Steve Johnson (FT) Dec 3, 2019
Policymakers seem to be warming to capital controls to avoid stagnation spreading.

Will China be a global player or split the world economy?
Louise Lucas (FT) Dec 3, 2019
Country's economic rise and modus operandi is endangering diplomatic, trade and tech links.

Europe can take a bigger role in providing public goods
Jean Pisani-Ferry (FT) Dec 3, 2019
The EU should invest where it can deliver more value than member states acting alone.

Pelosi's Never-Ending Trade Demands
WSJ Dec 3, 2019
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada deal gets worse as Democrats drive it left.

PISA 2018: A Few Reactions to the New Global Education Rankings
Lee Crawfurd, Susannah Hares, Alexis Le Nestour and Ana Luiza Minardi (CGD) Dec 3, 2019
PISA 2018 results were released today. 79 countries and 600,000 students took part in the seventh triennial round of the highly scrutinized tests which assess the skills and knowledge of 15-year-olds in maths, reading, and science. Here are a few quick reactions from the edu-data enthusiasts here at CGD.

The Case for QE in India Is Getting Stronger
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 3, 2019
Rate cuts have lost their firepower. It's time to consider unconventional measures.

The Calm After Britain's Brexit Election
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Dec 3, 2019
If Boris Johnson wins the United Kingdom's upcoming vote, as expected, Brexit will go ahead and cause the country long-term damage. But for the next several years, almost nothing about the UK's relationship with the European Union is likely to change, because Johnson can – and almost certainly will – extend the transition period.

Fiscal policy cannot save the ECB
Daniel Gros and Angela Capolongo (VoxEU) Dec 3, 2019
The ECB is running out of options for addressing its twin problems of low inflation and negative interest rates, leading some, including outgoing President, Mario Draghi, to call on fiscal policy measures to be used. This column argues that a fiscal expansion would be ineffective in raising interest rates or inflation for any length of time. Not only would the effect be temporary, but the scale of expansion needed to effect any substantial change would be unfeasible.

U.S.-Europe Trade War Reerupts in London
Keith Johnson (FP) Dec 3, 2019
As France introduces a new digital services tax, the Trump administration is threatening tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of prestige French exports.

How Poverty Ends
Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo (FA) Dec 3, 2019
The many paths to progress—and why they might not continue.

US allies must prepare for further trade shocks
FT View Dec 4, 2019
Hopes that Washington wanted to lower tensions were misplaced.

EM debt in the 2020s — investing in an unstable world
Paul Greer(FT) Dec 4, 2019
Emerging markets face a new set of challenges in the coming decade.

How to reform today's rigged capitalism
Martin Wolf (FT) Dec 4, 2019
We must address weakened competition, feeble productivity growth, high inequality and degraded democracy.

Lebanese protests have given way to a debt crisis
David Gardner (FT) Dec 4, 2019
The country's banking system is in hock to an insolvent state.

US, China trade truce hopes fading away
Nile Bowie (AT) Dec 4, 2019
Trump says 'first phase' trade deal could wait until late 2020 while Xi has increasingly little domestic room to compromise.

What Venezuela Needs for a Prosperous Future
David Gordon (Mises Wire) Dec 4, 2019
Political and economic salvation for Venezuela can come only from the Venezuelan people themselves. They cannot be "forced to be free."

Don't Blame the ECB for Negative Rates
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 4, 2019
Christine Lagarde needs to stand her ground until the euro zone's governments start using fiscal policy properly.

Stock Sell-Off Is a Wake-Up Call for Investors
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 4, 2019
Short-term optimism is colliding with more entrenched uncertainties.

The Trade Truce Still Hangs by a Thread
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 4, 2019
The fragile goodwill that's held this process together is thin, and there are tricky obstacles ahead.

Military Spending on R&D Is a Boon for the Private Sector
Noah Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 4, 2019
Military research spending spurs private-sector innovation and growth.

Shoppers Won't Save the U.S. Economy
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 4, 2019
When economic growth depends too much on consumer spending, it's usually a warning sign.

Why Countries Should Tax Global Income
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Dec 4, 2019
More inclusive global growth in a world with free capital mobility does not require a "global" government that taxes and redistributes, but it does require global taxation and tax cooperation. Countries should be free to set their own taxes, but they should be required to share tax-relevant information.

Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China's Pre-WTO Accession
George Alessandria, Shafaat Khan, and Armen Khederlarian (VoxChina) Dec 4, 2019
We propose a method to estimate the perceived likelihood of an uncertain increase in tariffs using the rise in trade flows in advance of the uncertainty resolution. We apply this framework to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.'s annual renewal of China's most-favored-nation (MFN) status in the 1990s. By matching the observed rise in imports in advance of U.S. Congress votes on the renewal, we find that the probability of non-renewal was low throughout the decade of uncertainty. Our estimated probability peaked in 1994 at 11 percent, decreased thereafter, and became negligible by the end of the decade. The mechanism we study raises a firm's inventory costs and leads to a lower volume of trade when aggregated to the annual level.

Macroprudential liquidity requirements
Iñaki Aldasoro, Gerardo Ferrara, Sam Langfield, Zijun Liu, and Tomohiro Ota (VoxEU) Dec 4, 2019
Macroprudential regulation is in vogue, but liquidity requirements are typically seen only as a microprudential tool. This column shows how a macroprudential approach to liquidity requirements could improve regulatory efficiency. By concentrating liquidity in systemically important banks, financial stability can be enhanced without increasing aggregate requirements.

Public debt and private investment
Yi Huang, Ugo Panizza, and Richard Varghese (VoxEU) Dec 4, 2019
Establishing the presence of a causal link from public debt to economic growth and investment has proved challenging. This column uses data for nearly 550,000 firms in 69 countries to show that government debt affects corporate investment by tightening the credit constraints faced by private firms. Higher levels of public debt increase the correlation between investment and cashflow for firms that are more likely to be credit constrained – i.e. unlisted, small, and young firms – but appear to have no effect on the correlation between cash and investment of listed, well-established, and large firms.

Latin America sell-off sparks contagion fears
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Dec 5, 2019
Popular uprisings in the region have spilled on to the capital markets.

Central bank talk of launching cryptocurrencies is bluff
Martin Arnold (FT) Dec 5, 2019
The real hope is that private banks will improve costly world of cross-border payments.

vCentral banks' next move will be crucial for investors
John Redwood (FT) Dec 5, 2019
The FT portfolio has enjoyed a good run in 2019 — but can it continue?

Europe can take a bigger role in providing public goods
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Bruegel) Dec 5, 2019
The EU should invest where it can deliver more value than member states acting alone.

Singapore's Long-Awaited Moment May Have Arrived
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 5, 2019
Hong Kong's rival sits at the center of a region that's growing in dynamism as China's boom fades.

The ECB Makes Its Move Against Negative Rates
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 5, 2019
Mario Draghi's parting gift on tiering was really a tacit admission that sub-zero rates aren't working properly.

How India's Central Bank Confounded All of Us
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 5, 2019
Not a single economist surveyed expected the RBI to hold rates. Its decision signals that monetary policymakers may have lost the narrative.

The Arab World Needs a Brexit Debate
Sami Mahroum (Project Syndicate) Dec 5, 2019
The Arab world has witnessed at least one big Brexit-like event every decade since 1948 – and these political, economic, and social ruptures never seem to heal. The impact of these self-inflicted disasters is now painfully evident, and ongoing street protests in several countries suggest that a moment of reckoning may have arrived.

Don't Let Tariffs Break the Internet
John W.H. Denton (Project Syndicate) Dec 5, 2019
One of the main reasons why the digital economy has been able to grow so robustly over the past two decades is that parties to the World Trade Organization have agreed not to impose tariffs on cross-border data flows. But now, in a misguided attempt to recoup lost revenues, some governments want to fix a system that isn't broken.

Restoring Central Banks' Credibility
Larry Hatheway (Project Syndicate) Dec 5, 2019
The old central-bank playbook of slashing interest rates to spur consumption, investment, and employment has become less effective since the 2008 financial crisis. Yet without effective tools and the public's confidence, central banks will be unable to rise to the occasion when the next recession arrives.

The circular relationship between productivity growth and real interest rates
Antonin Bergeaud, Gilbert Cette, and Rémy Lecat (VoxEU) Dec 5, 2019
In most advanced economies, both real long-term interest rates and productivity growth have decreased since the early 1990s. The column demonstrates how a circular relationship links these two indicators. Until there is a technology shock, the relationship will converge to an equilibrium in which growth and interest rates are both low.

The role of standards in the diffusion of new technologies
Suguru Tamura (VoxEU) Dec 5, 2019
An increasing number of goods and services employ AI-related technology. But for most consumers, determining which products use artificial intelligence remains a challenge. This column suggests that the spread of new technology may be delayed when information about it is difficult to communicate, and argues that standards governing artificial intelligence labelling can help to both educate consumers and promote the technology's dissemination.

Investors try to filter out Sino-US trade war noise
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Dec 6, 2019
Assuming that markets can live with the 'weaponisation' of tariffs may be a false comfort.

Why some hedge funds are warming towards Europe
Laurence Fletcher (FT) Dec 6, 2019
Bets on US stocks have proven solid but some feel they have run their course.

The battle over green investment hots up
Gillian Tett (FT) Dec 6, 2019
How can an asset management sector dominated by passive funds fight climate change?

China's bailout of private companies fails to halt defaults
Sun Yu and Xinning Liu (FT) Dec 6, 2019
State funds lend $22.7bn to struggling listed groups using shares as collateral.

Opec and allies stumble towards deeper cuts
David Sheppard and Anjli Raval (FT) Dec 6, 2019
Talks between world's top oil producers on extra 500,000 b/d reductions drag into night.

White House objects to $1bn World Bank loan programme for China
James Politi (FT) Dec 6, 2019
US's economic rivalry with Beijing spills over into multilateral institutions.

Government Debt Is Not a Free Lunch
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Dec 6, 2019
With borrowing costs at multi-decade lows, governments seemingly can take on much more debt without any great concern about long-term consequences. But the real risks and costs of higher public borrowing may be hidden.

Measuring Growth Democratically
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Dec 6, 2019
For decades, gross domestic product has captured the attention of economists and policymakers around the world, offering a single, simple proxy for economic growth. Yet for all of its convenience, it is a poor proxy for human progress, and could easily be improved with a complementary metric that weighs citizens more equally.

The ECB Needs a New Mandate
Marcel Fratzscher (Project Syndicate) Dec 6, 2019
The European Central Bank needs a more realistic and flexible mandate, defined by a broader price-stability objective. But timing is everything: If the ECB tries to move the goalpost while it is missing the shot, the blow to its already diminished credibility could be serious.

Mapping the Digital Economy in 2020
Chen Long and Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Dec 6, 2019
In today's globalized world, falling behind technologically carries major costs. That is why the world need a comprehensive understanding of the digital revolution's effects on individual and social welfare as soon as possible.

Policy change needed to accelerate investment in structural transformation
Laurence Boone and Debora Revoltella (VoxEU) Dec 6, 2019
For the past two years, global growth outcomes and prospects have steadily deteriorated, while investment growth has collapsed. This is particularly the case in Europe. This column argues that reducing policy uncertainty, rethinking fiscal policy, and acting vigorously to address the challenges raised by digitalisation, climate change, and persistent inequalities all have the potential to reverse the current slippery trend and lift investment and living standards.

The consequences of ultra-low US unemployment
Gavyn Davies (FT) Dec 7, 2019
The American labour market is entering largely unexplored territory.

Tariffs by false pretences
Carlos Abadi (FT) Dec 7, 2019
Trump's real aim is to punish farmers in Argentina and Brazil for the consequences of his own policies.

Climate change has made ESG a force in investing
Economist Dec 7, 2019
But the figures behind ESG rating systems are dismal.

Robots Are Very Bad News for Millennial Workers
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 7, 2019
In the U.S., education offers you protection against workplace automation, but in Europe your employment contract does. That penalizes the young.

Elite violence and elite numeracy in Europe from 500 to 1900 CE: A co-evolution
Thomas Keywood and Jörg Baten (VoxEU) Dec 7, 2019
Due to their lower standards of living, Eastern and Central Eastern Europe are losing their young, well-educated and energetic population to the West. The scarcity of data that reach far enough back in time makes it challenging to explain the longstanding East–West differences. This column explores the relationship of economic development with human capital – specifically, elite numeracy – and violence. It concludes that the absence of violence played a significant role in economic development through elite numeracy formation.

Governments must learn to love borrowing again
FT View Dec 8, 2019
If used for wise investment, fiscal stimulus can relieve monetary policy.

Fernández will have to clear up Macri's mess
Hector Torres (FT) Dec 8, 2019
The outgoing president left the economy in worse shape than when he took office.

Fed will have to be creative in the next recession
Willem Buiter (FT) Dec 8, 2019
Its room for manoeuvre on conventional monetary policy is small.

Trade Deal Won't Rescue Mexico
Mary Anastasia O'Grady (WSJ) Dec 8, 2019
López Obrador's capricious governing style is the real threat to economic growth.

ASEAN's quiet resilience
Kishore Mahbubani (EAF) Dec 8, 2019
ASEAN consistently and quietly delivers peace to one of the most Balkanised regions in the world. Yet, no one notices how the understated and quiet leadership of ASEAN managed to pull off one of the biggest coups in recent economic history by announcing the completion of negotiations of RCEP.

Policing OPEC's Oil Deal Risks A Price Crash
Julian Lee (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 8, 2019
Saudi Arabia is trying everything to make sure the latest oil deal sticks. When it doesn't, the kingdom will be stuck between a rock and a very hard place.

Is This Goldilocks Moment Too Good to Be True?
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 8, 2019
The Fed says monetary policy is in a good place and markets agree. The risk is that the economy starts running too hot.

Hong Kong Is Overdue for an Economic Makeover
Nisha Gopalan (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 8, 2019
The city has reinvented itself many times. It may need to do so again.

India's Problems Were Always Bigger Than Narendra  Modi
Pankaj Mishra (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 8, 2019
Believers in a "Rising India" and its "reformer-in-chief" suffer a predictable case of buyer's remorse.

Using history to understand hidden wealth in the UK
Neil Cummins (VoxEU) Dec 8, 2019
Sharp declines in the concentration of declared wealth occurred across Europe and the US during the 20th century. But the rich may have been hiding much of their wealth. This column introduces a new method to measure this hidden wealth, in any form. It finds that between 1920 and 1992, English elites concealed 20-32% of their wealth. Accounting for hidden wealth eliminates one-third of the observed decline of top 10% wealth share over the past century.

There are no easy fixes for Nigeria's problems
FT View Dec 9, 2019
Reforms to its oil industry and a more efficient state are vital.

Argentina must preserve anti-corruption legacy
FT View Dec 9, 2019
Mauricio Macri erred on the economy but merits praise for tackling graft.

Worrying signs that a great global deregulation has begun
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Dec 9, 2019
Evidence shows the US and Europe are poised to compete to ease the rules.

Central bankers must beware political 'lower bound'
Karsten Junius (FT) Dec 9, 2019
Monetary policy risks losing public support in perceived clash with national values.

Paul Volcker Was Inflation's Worst Enemy
John B. Taylor (WSJ) Dec 9, 2019
As Fed chairman, he shored up the dollar and set the stage for decades of economic growth.

Why Did India Suddenly Pull Out of the World's Largest Trade Deal?
John West (Brink) Dec 9, 2019
Leaders of 15 Asia-Pacific nations finally reached an agreement — seven long years in the making — on the world's largest trade deal, but at the last minute, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi pulled his country out of the deal. However, for India to find the economic success it seeks, open trade and investment are key.

High noon at the Appellate Body
Niclas Poitiers (Bruegel) Dec 9, 2019
This blog post explains the working method of the dispute settlement body, and then discusses the objections the US has raised against the Appellate Body, and the implications of its potential demise.

Is India's Consumption Really Falling?
Josh Felman, Justin Sandefur, Arvind Subramanian and Julian Duggan (CGD) Dec 9, 2019
On November 14, India's Business Standard revealed startling results from a leaked report from India's National Sample Survey (NSS) that the government has withheld for months: despite official figures showing robust economic growth over this period, the survey showed that per capita consumption had fallen in real terms by 3.7% from 2011/12 to 2017/18. The same day, the government announced the entire survey would be permanently shelved, provoking a storm of debate.

Treading Carefully: Risk and Opportunity in CLOs and Bank Loans
Beth MacLean, Giang Bui, and Sabeen Firozali (PIMCO) Dec 9, 2019
While many risk assets have rallied in 2019, the lower-rated tranches of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have weakened. Is this a sign that the credit cycle is turning?

Greece Is Enjoying a New Feeling of Euphoria
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 9, 2019
Greek bank shares have doubled in value. But the new "Hercules" plan to cut bad loans depends on a healthy economy and better insolvency rules.

What Is Really to Blame for the Repo Market Blowup
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 9, 2019
BIS has missed the point. The real problem is the regulatory demand that means four banks hold so many U.S. Treasuries.

Is Growth Passé?
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Dec 9, 2019
Some suggest that the Paris climate agreement's target for limiting global warming can be achieved only by stopping economic expansion. But there is ample room to change the quality of growth and significantly reduce its environmental impact without condemning billions of people to lives of deprivation.

The Policy Debate Europe Needs
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Dec 9, 2019
How can the eurozone get the fiscal stimulus it needs, and which European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is urging, in the face of the refusal by some countries, starting with Germany, to run budget deficits? There is a good answer, but it doesn't involve attempting to cicumvent the intent of the ECB's statute.

The art of assessing public debt sustainability
Xavier Debrun, Jonathan D. Ostry, Tim Willems, and Charles Wyplosz (VoxEU) Dec 9, 2019
Knowing whether public debt is sustainable is as critical for economists analysing fiscal policy as for practitioners tasked with charting desirable policy paths. However, because sustainability is intimately related to the government's ability to honour all its current and future obligations, it is purely forward-looking and assessing it amounts to making a prediction about an unknowable future. This column fleshes out three principles guiding the design and implementation of sound debt sustainability frameworks: relevance, simplicity and transparency.

Financial integration and external adjustment
Andreas Fischer, Henrike Leonie Groeger, Philip Sauré, and Pinar Yesin (VoxEU) Dec 9, 2019
Global imbalances are at the core of today's trade tensions, but official current account statistics may not be sufficient to assess the external positions of financially integrated economies. For instance, balance of payments accounting standards do not prescribe the recording of retained earnings on portfolio equity investment in the current account. This column argues that adjustments in income flows in equity investment therefore remain concealed in official current account statistics. In today's financially integrated world with existing accounting standards, external adjustment mechanisms should be considered more broadly than just as an evolution of trade balance and exchange rate movements.

How Trump May Finally Kill the WTO
Keith Johnson (FP) Dec 9, 2019
The Trump administration has engaged in a yearslong campaign to undermine the World Trade Organization's appellate body, now making it impossible for the organization to resolve trade disputes.

Global trade needs an independent referee
Dec 10, 2019
President Trump must decide if he wants to reform or break the WTO.

Winner-takes-all digital economy poses risk for markets
Philip Stafford (FT) Dec 10, 2019
Concentration of business among small number of players presents significant challenge.

Lagarde must not throw in towel on inflation
Reza Moghadam (FT) Dec 10, 2019
It is hard to see how the ECB could lower the target without notice or consequence.

Indian poor grow hungrier under Modi as economy slows
Amy Kazmin and Jyotsna Singh (FT) Dec 10, 2019
Low-income families cut back on food spending as unemployment rises.

Indian business breaks ranks amid economic strain
Amy Kazmin (FT) Dec 10, 2019 Indian poor grow hungrier under Modi as economy slows
Amy Kazmin and Jyotsna Singh (FT) Dec 10, 2019
Low-income families cut back on food spending as unemployment rises.

Trade war chips away at China's wheel of fortune
Gordon Watts (AT) Dec 10, 2019
The Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing will set the tone for the world's second-largest economy in 2020.

Alberto Fernández, Argentina's new president, faces economic crisis
Economist Dec 10, 2019
It will be hard to revive growth without busting the budget.

Chilean Protesters Could End Chile's Decades of Progress
José Niño (Mises Wire) Dec 10, 2019
The history of Latin America is filled with tragic stories of countries reaching great heights — Argentina and Venezuela come to mind — and then falling back to mediocrity. Chile could be next if the protesters get their way.

Your Holiday Survival Guide for Chinese Bond Defaults
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 10, 2019
Trying to figure out which company gets a state bailout can make you go cross-eyed. We're here to help.

Trump's China Tariffs Boomerang on America
Matthew A Winkler (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 10, 2019
Thanks to trade wars, companies are skimping on new U.S. plants and equipment.

Paul Volcker's Complicated Latin American Legacy
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 10, 2019
He wasn't at fault for the continent's "lost decade" of the 1980s, but he was partly responsible for it.

As the Fed Angles for a Soft Landing, Expect a 'Dovish Hold'
Timothy A Duy (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 10, 2019
Policy makers aren't inclined to cut rates again, barring a fresh downturn in activity. But don't expect a reversal anytime soon, either.

Tackling Inequality from the Middle
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Dec 10, 2019
The rise of populist movements and street protests from Chile to France has made inequality a high priority for politicians of all stripes in the world's rich democracies. But a fundamental question has received relatively little attention: What type of inequality should policymakers tackle?

If Wealth Is Justified, so Is a Wealth Tax
Katharina Pistor (Project Syndicate) Dec 10, 2019
Not surprisingly, American billionaires have dismissed recent wealth-tax proposals as an affront to the entrepreneurial spirit to which they attribute their massive wealth. But the ultra-rich never would have their great wealth without legal subsidies from the state and reliable enforcement by the courts.

Heterogeneous drivers of heterogeneous populism
Italo Colantone and Piero Stanig (VoxEU) Dec 10, 2019
Populist parties tend to share an anti-establishment stance and the claim to represent ordinary people versus the elites. This column, part of the Vox debate on populism, argues that despite these similarities, populist parties are fundamentally heterogeneous and the drivers of their support tend to be diverse. It also argues that the economy and culture should be seen as tightly interrelated rather than mutually exclusive explanations for the populist surge, and that rather than being a simple 'protest vote', the surge might reflect a new political cleavage resulting from the contraposition of winners and losers from structural economic changes.

Comparative European institutions and the 'Little Divergence', 1385–1800
António Henriques and Nuno Palma (VoxEU) Dec 10, 2019
The decline of countries such as Castile and Portugal, which first benefited from access to the New World, relative to their followers, especially England and the Netherlands, is often attributed to the quality of the Iberian countries' institutions at the time Atlantic trade opened. This column questions this narrative by comparing Iberian and English institutional quality over time, considering the frequency and nature of parliamentary meetings, the frequency and intensity of extraordinary taxation and coin debasement, and real interest spreads for public debt. It finds no evidence that the political institutions of Iberia were worse until at least 1650.

Act Now to Save the WTO
Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León (YaleGlobal) Dec 10, 2019
The US blocks appointments to its Appellate Body for settling disputes.

Bride Price
Sameer Yasir (FP) Dec 10, 2019
In India, several important industries are flagging as the economy struggles—notably the once-booming wedding industry.

Chained to Globalization
Henry Farrell and Abraham L. Newman (FA) Dec 10, 2019
Why it's too late to decouple.

The Starving State
Joseph E. Stiglitz, Todd N. Tucker, and Gabriel Zucman (FA) Dec 10, 2019
Why capitalism's salvation depends on taxation.

The Clash of Capitalisms
Branko Milanovic (FA) Dec 10, 2019
The real fight for the global economy's future.

The impact of trade on the North American auto industry
Thomas H. Klier (FRB Chicago Fed Letter) Dec 10, 2019
On September 4–5, 2019, the Chicago Fed held a conference at its Detroit Branch to discuss trade's role in shaping the North American auto industry. This event brought together nearly 100 attendees, including industry leaders, academics, and policymakers.

A German bailout tests EU bank rules to the limit
FT View Dec 11, 2019
Approval of taxpayers' money for NordLB stretches credibility.

The legacy and lessons of Paul Volcker
Martin Wolf (FT) Dec 11, 2019
Do the right thing, do not put your trust in unbridled finance, and have courage.

The world should beware a technology cold war
FT View Dec 11, 2019
A drastic decoupling would carry risks for both the US and China.

Fossil fuel producers lay out case for final big rally
Neil Hume (FT) Dec 11, 2019
Despite green revolution, producers outline chance of a future supply shortfall.

Europe's Green Deal could be the most important in a generation
Mariana Mazzucato (FT) Dec 11, 2019
EU leaders must take this opportunity to set a new course for growth, climate change and inequality.

Why the EU needs new models for non-members
Martin Sandbu (FT) Dec 11, 2019
'Outer circles' of association would mean more countries could plug in to its sphere of influence.

World Is Stuck With the Dollar as the Reserve Currency
Noah Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 11, 2019
Nothing is going to replace it anytime soon.

The Japanization of the European Union
Jesús Huerta de Soto (Mises Wire) Dec 11, 2019
Japan's once-envied economy is now in shambles. The European economy, built on the same shaky tenets, is crumbling, too. Where to go from here?

Asia gains on trade deal hopes but eyes on Fed
Umesh Desai (AT) Dec 11, 2019
After Asia rally Europe, US markets turn cautious ahead of Federal Reserve decision.

What a tougher EU means for Asia
David Hutt (AT) Dec 11, 2019
New EU leadership vows to use 'language of power' to push more forcefully bloc's trade and security agendas.

A Global Debt Crisis May Be Inevitable
David Knox (Brink) Dec 11, 2019
The wealth effect — increases in spending resulting from rising wealth — can threaten a secure retirement. In fact, there is a strong correlation between levels of pension assets and net household debt. What governments, organizations and individuals can do to plan for a secure future.

Watch out for China's currency in case of no-deal scenario
Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel) Dec 11, 2019
The U.S. and China's negotiations on a phase-one deal seem to have stalled again. The market was already aware of the limited nature of the likely deal, but was still hoping for it. Against this backdrop, the investors have reacted negatively to the increased likelihood of not reaching a deal on December 15. If this is the case, the U.S. will apply additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The obvious question to address, thus, is, what can happen to China under such a scenario?

Fed Is Sick of Being Held Hostage by Trade Wars
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 11, 2019
The central bank voices confidence it can stand pat in 2020.

Central Bankers Speak A Different Language
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 11, 2019
The ECB's new chief will find investors parsing her every word. She'll do well to play it safe at first.

A New Reason for the Fed to Cut Rates
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 11, 2019
It would help reduce unemployment even further and honor the legacy of Paul Volcker.

How to Revive the WTO
Shang-Jin Wei and Xinding Yu (Project Syndicate) Dec 11, 2019
The World Trade Organization's appellate body is under threat not from China, but from the United States, which is blocking the appointment of new judges to the panel. Reviving the WTO will require changes to the organization's rules – but killing its dispute-settlement system is not the solution.

Fighting the Diseases of Want and Plenty
Dennis J. Snower (Project Syndicate) Dec 11, 2019
Many of the diseases associated with either affluence or poverty are avoidable, but modern medicine is concerned primarily with treatment, not prevention. What is needed is a new approach to promoting health that focuses on biology, environment, and behavior.

Financial Stability Should Be Central Banking's Prime Objective
Willem H. Buiter (Project Syndicate) Dec 11, 2019
It has become fashionable to worry whether central banks still have the tools with which to pursue price stability, full employment, and other objectives. But policymakers should not lose sight of the fact that a central bank's primary job is to maintain financial stability as a lender and market maker of last resort.

The effects of export credit guarantees on firm performance
Natasha Agarwal, Magnus Lodefalk, Majken Stenberg, Aili Tang, Sofia Tano, and Zheng Wang (VoxEU) Dec 11, 2019
Export credit guarantees turned 100 this year, yet they have been sparsely studied. This column examines the causal effects of export credit guarantees on firm performance. It concludes by considering whether the provision of guarantees should be rebalanced in favour of small and medium-sized enterprises and by calling for governments to urgently integrate all major countries into a regulated system for export credit guarantees.

Fiscal stabilisation in monetary unions
Plamen Nikolov and Paolo Pasimeni (VoxEU) Dec 11, 2019
If properly designed, even a small fiscal capacity can maximise its stabilisation effect. The column studies the macroeconomic stabilisation provided by the federal budget in the US as an example for monetary unions. Corporate income tax, on the revenue side, and social security, on the spending side, are the two most effective items. The key is to collect revenues based on the income of the most mobile factor, and to provide support to the income of the least mobile factor.

Idiosyncratic risks and the volatility of trade
Francis Kramarz, Julien Martin, and Isabelle Mejean (VoxEU) Dec 11, 2019
Economists continue to disagree about whether international trade exacerbates or diminishes volatility. This column presents firm-level evidence from French exporters and their European trading partners over 15 years to show that firm-level volatility increases individual-level and aggregate-level volatility. High concentration among buyers as well as suppliers can amplify these shocks.

2020 International Economic Outlook
Nick Bennenbroek and Jen Licis (WF) Dec 11, 2019
It has been a challenging year for the global economy in 2019, and 2020 is not shaping up to be much, if any, easier. We project global GDP growth will be 3.0% this year, which would be the slowest pace of growth since the global recession of 2008 and 2009. For 2020, we do not expect any firming in activity, but rather expect global GDP growth to hold steady at 3.0%.

Central banks are limited in tackling climate change
Megan Greene (FT) Dec 12, 2019
Monetary policymakers should be clear-eyed on what they can and cannot do about it.

Investors should get ready for meddling governments
Seema Shah (FT) Dec 12, 2019
Intrusion from politicians, rather than central banks, will make for a volatile market.

Index investors should not be passive owners when it comes to ESG
Michelle Scrimgeour (FT) Dec 12, 2019
From social housing to clean energy, asset managers can invest in solutions to pressing problems.

The New NAFTA Is Better Than No NAFTA at All
NYT Dec 12, 2019
Congress should pass the revised North American Free Trade Agreement, despite its considerable shortcomings.

Fed's accommodative signal stokes Asian risk rally
Umesh Desai (AT) Dec 12, 2019
Fed hints at unchanged rates in 2020; Tariff deadline looms; Brexit vote and ECB meeting in focus.

America wants the World Bank to stop making loans to China
Economist Dec 12, 2019
It left deep poverty behind long ago. But the loans make the bank a tidy profit.

The rights and wrongs of central-bank greenery
Economist Dec 12, 2019
Central banks must pay some attention to climate change. But they should resist mission creep.

Central Bank Digital Currencies: 4 Questions and Answers
Tobias Adrian and Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli (IMF) Dec 12, 2019
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) is a complex and multidisciplinary topic requiring active analysis and debate. It raises questions related to monetary policy, central banking operations, and payment systems—as well as financial stability and legal foundations and regulation.

Federal Reserve Appears Confident in U.S. Economy's Soft Landing
Tiffany Wilding (PIMCO) Dec 12, 2019
In its December forecasts, the Federal Reserve estimates that the policy rate will hold steady through 2020. Will economic and trade developments change that view?

The Fed Is on Hold for a While
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) Dec 12, 2019
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC or Fed) left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.50 to 1.75 percent at its December 2019 meeting, as nearly all analysts anticipated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell made clear in the subsequent press conference that it will take a significant surprise in the economy for the Fed to either cut or raise rates over the next year. Stock prices were little changed, and bond yields fell slightly after the Fed's announcement.

Japanese economy: Déjà vu – but worse
Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel) Dec 12, 2019
It is difficult to imagine how Japan can undertake any major economic reform if it has taken five years to increase the consumption tax and has needed two strong fiscal packages.

Lagarde Wants an `Economic Ballet.' It Could Be a Mosh Pit.
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 12, 2019
The new ECB president offers a stark contrast to her predecessor. She'll face many of the same problems.

Indonesia Stirs Ghosts of 1998 With Deficit Debate
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 12, 2019
The country is considering easing budget rules designed to prevent a repeat of its Asian crisis turmoil.

U.S. Bets Old Ideas in a New Package Can Deter China
Henry Brands (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 12, 2019
A fresh doctrine — "pluralism" — aims to help allies and friends balance Beijing in the Indo-Pacific.

WTO Paralysis Means Law of the Jungle
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 12, 2019
The use of tariffs as a political weapon is here to stay. What are Europe and Asia going to do about it?

Don't Expect the Roaring '10s for Stocks to Repeat in the '20s
Nir Kaissar (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 12, 2019
The rally has been based on record growth in earnings, which have historically been incredibly volatile.

Is Tech a New Frontier for Sustainability?
Bertrand Badré and Philippe Heim (Project Syndicate) Dec 12, 2019
Financial institutions must address the issue of technological sustainability, especially with regard to data, robotics, and artificial intelligence. Although these new technologies have vast potential, businesses also need to understand their risks, social impact, and ethical implications.

Economic Growth Is the Answer
Michael J. Boskin (Project Syndicate) Dec 12, 2019
While rising inequality – a problem that the data suggest is real but overstated – has moved to the center of public debate, the key issue is that living standards are not improving fast enough among those who are falling behind. It is this fact that is fueling much of the political tension across advanced economies today.

Populism: Why in rich countries and in good times
Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi (VoxEU) Dec 12, 2019
Economic anxiety and insecurity are often cited as drivers of populism, so why has populism emerged over the past few years in rich countries and in good times? This column, part of the Vox debate on the topic, argues that income inequality plays a role. When the economy is strong, everyone fares well but the rich fare especially well, fuelling inequality and resentment. Populism in the form of anti-globalisation may reduce everyone's consumption, but it affects the rich disproportionately and thus appeals to many voters in richer countries. In poorer countries, however, voters are less willing to give up consumption for equality.

Beyond the Trade War
Ely Ratner, Elizabeth Rosenberg, and Paul Scharre (FA) Dec 12, 2019
A competitive approach to countering China.

Brexit will now happen but Johnson's win puts future of UK in doubt
Robert Shrimsley (FT) Dec 13, 2019
The next government will be defined by forces beyond the prime minister's control.

Repo and swaps markets point to further volatility
John Dizard (FT) Dec 13, 2019
Central bankers are trying to anticipate the source of the next funding crunch.

Victory for Tory agenda sets the UK on course to boom
Paul Marshall (FT) Dec 13, 2019
Infrastructure spending, wage rises and investment in the knowledge economy mark a shift.

Repo blame game moves focus to hedge funds
Joe Rennison (FT) Dec 13, 2019
Hunt for triggers of September's funding market blow-up lands at new location.

Two heavy clouds over global economic growth are lifting
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Dec 13, 2019
Investors should not get carried away with the UK election result and US-China trade pact.

China steps up push to avoid growing old while still poor
Lauren Johnston (FT) Dec 13, 2019
Beijing's population ageing strategy offers lessons for other countries.

Should poor countries welcome Beijing's money?
Steve Johnson (FT) Dec 13, 2019
China is outdoing the west as a source of funding for infrastructure projects.

Worlds apart: how decoupling became the new buzzword
Gideon Rachman (FT) Dec 13, 2019
Globalisation is faltering as countries fret about their reliance on foreign markets.

Can consumer spending overcome corporate gloom?
Gillian Tett (FT) Dec 13, 2019
US economic growth in 2020 depends on it.

Foreign investors cast shadow over bumper Brazilian markets
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Dec 13, 2019
Runaway rallies and XP's flotation success belie hint of nerves.

Brexit's Advance Opens a New Trade Era
Peter S. Goodman (NYT) Dec 13, 2019
The decisive Conservative victory in Britain leaves no doubt that in today's global equation, national interests are supreme and globalization is suspect.

A U.S.-China Trade Detente
WSJ Dec 13, 2019
The deal offers tariff relief and will test Beijing's commitments.

Got Trade? Dairy Farmers Stand to Gain From the USMCA
Ted Budd (WSJ) Dec 13, 2019
The newly signed deal is sweet relief to farmers in rural districts like mine in North Carolina.

Why markets surged after the Tory victory
Economist Dec 13, 2019
There are three reasons for the rise in sterling assets.

Encouraging transformations in Central Asia
Lilia Burunciuc and Ivailo Izvorski (Brookings) Dec 13, 2019
Where is Central Asia today and where is it going?

Embrace Unilateral Free Trade with the UK — Right Now
Ryan McMaken (Mises Wire) Dec 13, 2019
Americans ought to begin thinking of trade between the US and the UK as something comparable to trade between California and Idaho.

We've Got a Trade Truce, Sort Of. Now What?
Mark Gongloff (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 13, 2019
It's not that big, or even much of a deal, and wasn't worth the pain. But it's better than nothing.

Trump's Dud of a Deal Shows the Futility of Trade War
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 13, 2019
It's good when a nation stops punching itself in the face, but how much better if it hadn't started.

The Green Deal Will Make or Break Europe
Mark Leonard (Project Syndicate) Dec 13, 2019
he European Union's new leadership has decided to invest much of its political capital in a plan to position Europe as the global leader in the transition to a carbon-neutral economy. But if too many constituencies feel as though they are being sacrificed on a green alter, the plan will never even get off the ground.

Europe's Green Deal
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Dec 13, 2019
The Green Deal announced by the European Commission is a demonstration of European social democracy at work. A mixed economy, combining markets, government regulation, the public sector, and civil society, will pursue a mixed strategy, combining public goals, public and private investments, and public support.

The State and Technological Revolution
Benedict Macon-Cooney (Project Syndicate) Dec 13, 2019
One of the most important lessons from the first Industrial Revolution is that periods of far-reaching technological change require an equally radical transformation of the state. Sadly, too many politicians have clung to the rhetoric of retrenchment instead of embracing what the new technological dispensation has to offer.

Cronies Everywhere
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Dec 13, 2019
From the Middle East and Russia to China and many other countries around the world, crony capitalism is alive and well. But what does this well-worn term actually mean in practice, and can it tell us anything about the likely fate of Russian kleptocracy, Chinese "state capitalism," or Middle Eastern rentier states?

Public support for the euro and trust in the ECB
Felix Roth and Lars Jonung (VoxEU) Dec 13, 2019
On the 20th anniversary of the euro, this column traces public support for the single currency and public trust in the ECB. The crisis years slightly dented support for the euro while trust in the ECB fell sharply. The recovery increased support for the euro, but while trust in the ECB has also risen, it remains below its pre-crisis levels. Unemployment is the key factor driving public support for the euro as well as trust in the ECB.

Time zones and the knowledge–distance trade-off
Dany Bahar (VoxEU) Dec 13, 2019
A key influence on the location decisions of multinationals is thought to be the 'knowledge–distance trade-off' – how far apart headquarters are from foreign subsidiaries, and the impact this has on ease of communication between them on issues related to management, monitoring, coordination, troubleshooting, and so on. This column argues that it is differences in time zones as much as the transport costs related to physical distance that play an important role in this trade-off. Human interaction is vital for the transfer of tacit knowledge that underpins economic development.

Needed: Benchmarks for net international investment positions
Alessandro Turrini and Stefan Zeugner (VoxEU) Dec 13, 2019
For net international investment position benchmarks to be effective measures of countries' external positions, they must be developed beyond a one-size-for-all approach. This column presents two such country-specific benchmarks to identify investment levels that are (1) explained by a country's demographics and key indicators, and (2) beyond the threshold of presenting significant external stability risk. The authors apply these benchmarks to 65 advanced and emerging economies and present key findings.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Three Takeaways From the Would-Be U.S.-China Trade Deal
Keith Johnson (FP) Dec 13, 2019
In a new trade deal, China and the United States appear to have called a truce, but it does little to address the root causes that sparked the trade war.

Boris Johnson's Victory Is Exactly What the EU Wants
Garvan Walshe (FP) Dec 13, 2019
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's reelection will help the European Union move on from the Brexit saga.

How Sectarianism Helped Destroy Lebanon's Economy
Rebecca Collard (FP) Dec 13, 2019
Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing system was meant to protect minority groups. But with public sector jobs allocated primarily based on affiliation—rather than ability—it has created a bloated bureaucracy and negatively affected the economy.

A Phase One Trade Deal is Reached, What Does It Mean?
Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery (WF) Dec 13, 2019
The phase one trade deal is light on details, but it signals a welcome détente. Though not enough to move the dial for growth yet, it scales back China tariffs by about $32 billion of where they'd be without it.

Investors grapple with indefinite monetary support
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Dec 14, 2019
Markets adjust after bumper year for central bank stimulus.

Banks do not create money out of thin air
Pontus Rendahl and Lukas B. Freund (VoxEU) Dec 14, 2019
In recent years, some have claimed that banks create money 'ex nihilo'. This column explains that banks do not create money out of thin air. From an economic viewpoint, commercial banks create private money by transforming an illiquid asset (the borrower's future ability to repay) into a liquid one (bank deposits); they would quickly be insolvent otherwise. In addition to bank solvency representing a constraint on private money creation, banks require access to liquid reserves in order to be able to engage in money creation.

AI regulation and firm behaviour
Yong Suk Lee, Benjamin Cedric Larsen, Michael Webb, and Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar (VoxEU) Dec 14, 2019
As artificial intelligence becomes more widespread and its performance improves, it will likely have significant long-term consequences for jobs, inequality, organisations, and competition. Regulation may be used to address its risks and possibilities, but little is known about how AI-related regulation might affect firm behaviour. This column examines the impact of actual and potential AI regulations on business managers through a randomised online survey experiment. It finds that exposure to information about regulation decreases managers' reported intent to adopt AI technologies in their firm's business processes.

Deconstructing US–China decoupling
Sourabh Gupta (EAF) Dec 14, 2019
Bilateral economic ties and global technology ecosystems are too enmeshed to be disentangled into neat geopolitical coalitions. But that won't stop Washington or Beijing from trying to force countries to choose their side.

The difficulty with the EU's sustainable investment rules
Jonathan Ford (FT) Dec 15, 2019
Creating classifications of social worth does little to support genuine impact investing.

The EU must rethink its approach to UK trade talks
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Dec 15, 2019
Brussels was wrong to treat Brexit as a threat, rather than grasping it as an opportunity.

Trump Officials Praise Gains From China Deal, but They Come at a Cost
Ana Swanson & Keith Bradsher (NYT) Dec 15, 2019
The economic losses sustained during a bruising 19-month trade war will not be easy to make up.

Why You Shouldn't Believe Those G.D.P. Numbers
David Leonhardt (NYT) Dec 15, 2019
The statistics keep on rising, but they don't track the well-being of most Americans.

Trump's Trade Secret: Exploiting China's Relative Weakness
John Lee (WSJ) Dec 15, 2019
Rising debt levels and an unsustainable economic model leave Beijing at Washington's mercy.

Wage stagnation — the myth and reality
Robert Samuelson (WP) Dec 15, 2019
Economics 101 isn't behaving as expected.

America's strategic China blunder
Stephen Roach (EAF) Dec 15, 2019
Decoupling from China is a strategic miscalculation driven by a China deceit narrative, convinced that China has broken a solemn pledge made at the time of its WTO accession.

The chill ahead in the Second Cold War
Gary Clyde Hufbauer (EAF) Dec 15, 2019
US Vice President Mike Pence has already announced a Second Cold War with 'trade, investment and technology' the weapons deployed thus far.

OPEC+ Deal Isn't Worth the Paper It's Written On
Julian Lee (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 15, 2019
In reality, OPEC's new deal isn't much different than the old one.

Reasons for the Lydian electrum coins and the succeeding Greek silver coins in antiquity
Jacques Melitz (VoxEU) Dec 15, 2019
Why did the Lydians decide, in the 7th century B.C., to coin electrum? On the face of it, this alloy of gold and silver would seem a particularly poor choice for coinage since its natural gold content varies and is hard to gauge with precision. This column suggests that it is the very uncertainty of the value of electrum, and the close control that the Lydians had over its gold content in coin form, that were the keys to the benefit of its coinage. It also suggests that the subsequent decision by the Greeks to coin silver was driven by the government's plan to subsidise the lower denomination coins, perhaps in order to economise its own transaction costs in its budgetary affairs.

Welcome (?) to the New World Economic Order
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 16, 2019
Future trade agreements are bound to be smaller and messier. But they're still worthwhile.

A better way to deal with debt crises
Rana Foroohar (FT) Dec 16, 2019
For too long, the economics profession has rewarded people who are better at maths than morality.

Pakistan needs more than an IMF bailout to fix its ailing economy
Farooq Baloch (FT) Dec 16, 2019
The government has yet to break out of a boom and bust cycle.

Could private capital become the world's latest 'peso problem'?
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Dec 16, 2019
Historical data is not an infallible indicator of future performance.

The energy surprises of 2019
Nick Butler (FT) Dec 16, 2019
The uncertainty that prevails in the industry has been underlined by events of the year.

Bonds are a better guide to the future than stocks
Christoph Schon (FT) Dec 16, 2019
An equity market rally driven by political news and promises is fragile.

Banks have learnt their lesson on risk management
Alexander Dill (FT) Dec 16, 2019
Cultural changes mean lenders will stay cautious despite looser US rules.

How Trump Lost His Trade War
Paul Krugman (NYT) Dec 16, 2019
On speaking loudly and carrying a small stick.

US-China trade deal looks distinctly anorexic
Gordon Watts (AT) Dec 16, 2019
Fleshing out the details on a bony structure will not hide problems facing Beijing and Washington.

In search of an alternate Chinese system of trade
Francesco Sisci (AT) Dec 16, 2019
Ming and Qing failed to see the world as a global environment China had to fit into before trying to dominate.

China's Central Bank and the Fed Look More Alike
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 16, 2019
The big economies are on the same monetary page, and independence doesn't account for everything.

Should We Fear Singapore-on-Seine?
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Dec 16, 2019
The phrase "Singapore-on-Thames" is shorthand for Britain becoming a low-tax, lightly regulated economy that can out-compete the sclerotic, over-regulated eurozone. Yet, there is no meaningful political support in Britain for significantly lighter bank regulation – in contrast to the situation in France.

The Global Economy's Luck May Run Out
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Dec 16, 2019
Compared to this time last year, the prospects for markets and the global economy heading into 2020 are surprisingly bright. But look further ahead and you will encounter deep uncertainty, suggesting that policymakers around the world would do well to implement inclusive-growth policies sooner rather than later.

Recognizing the High Value of Africa's Migrants
Carl Manlan (Project Syndicate) Dec 16, 2019
In Africa and elsewhere, development processes are stronger when they are built on existing networks and mechanisms. Far from being a handicap, therefore, Africa's informal economy, and the migrants who help drive it, are one of the continent's most valuable assets.

Xi Jinping's Annus Horribilis
Minxin Pei (Project Syndicate) Dec 16, 2019
Trade disputes with the US, concerns about Chinese interference in Hong Kong, and ethnic tensions in Xinjiang all preceded Xi Jinping's rise to power in late 2012. Their escalation in the last year is a direct result of China's shift to authoritarianism under Xi.

The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference
Galina B. Hale, Òscar Jordà, and Glenn D. Rudebusch (FRBSF Econ Letter) Dec 16, 2019
To better understand the implications of climate change for the financial sector and the broader economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco recently hosted a conference on the economics of climate change to gather and debate the latest analyses from universities and policy institutions, nationally and abroad. It was the first Fed-sponsored conference devoted to investigating the economic and financial consequences and risks arising from climate change and potential policy responses.

Our Favorite Charts of 2019
WF Dec 16, 2019
In economics, it can be easy to get caught up in the details and overlook the economy of words. With that in mind, we present our favorite charts of the past year to illustrate some of the major trends of 2019.

The year the markets stopped believing in unicorns
Elaine Moore (FT) Dec 17, 2019
Of start-ups poised to go public, four flopped, one nearly collapsed and two are yet to take the plunge.

A fair and simple way to tax carbon emissions
Raghuram Rajan (FT) Dec 17, 2019
Rich countries that pump out more than average should pay into a fund that rewards low emitters.

Corporate default hotspot tests Beijing's appetite for bailouts
Don Weinland (FT) Dec 17, 2019
Pressures in China's Shandong province illustrate risks of highly leveraged expansion.

Emerging markets are driving the global spending slowdown
Caroline Grady (FT) Dec 17, 2019
Sluggish domestic demand growth in EMs has curbed imports.

Trump's Trade Deals Raise, Rather Than Remove, Economic Barriers
Ana Swanson (NYT) Dec 17, 2019
The president's China and North American trade pacts reverse a trend of opening markets that was decades in the making.

Hong Kong's financial hub image unblemished
Umesh Desai (AT) Dec 17, 2019
Capital stays even after months of anti-government protests and China is the main investment flow driver.

Hong Kong to thrive as major financial hub
Hank Morris (AT) Dec 17, 2019
But Cantonese-speaking Hong Kongers will not be the biggest beneficiaries in the years ahead.

Chile's Economic Model Is a Success Story in Crisis-Prone South America
José Niño (Mises Wire) Dec 17, 2019
Since 1975, Chile's per capita income has increased fourfold, making it Latin America's most prosperous country today.

The USMCA: New, Modestly Improved, but Still Costly
Mary E. Lovely and Jeffrey J. Schott (PIIE) Dec 17, 2019
President Donald Trump touts the newly revised United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) as the "most important trade deal" in history. The pact modernizes trading rules, and strengthens enforcement of labor and environmental rights, but is still a net negative for all three economies. Its regulatory mandates, especially in autos, will restrict trade and hurt US industry, confirming the assessment by the US International Trade Commission earlier this year that the pact will cause US growth to decline by 0.12 percent.

Will Boris Johnson Go Full Speed Ahead or Wobbly on Brexit?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Dec 17, 2019
The sweeping victory of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative Party in December 2019 hands him a mandate to "get Brexit done" quickly, as he has promised. In theory, he has the latitude and the votes to engineer a Brexit that is either a "no deal" type of clean break or a lesser break that preserves large portions of the trading and commercial relationship with the European Union. No one knows what he will do, but it is too early to bet against a "soft Brexit" in the end.

The Case for Raising the Inflation Target Is Stronger than You Think
Joseph E. Gagnon and Christopher G. Collins (PIIE) Dec 17, 2019
At a time when inflation has for years remained slightly below the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2 percent, a debate has broken out among macroeconomists over whether to raise inflation, and the target, further—for example, to 3 or 4 percent—by adopting an easier policy stance. But the debaters are all underestimating the benefits of raising the target. The case for higher inflation is stronger than previously understood.

U.S.-China Deal Will Be a Short-Term Truce
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 17, 2019
Think of the pact as a break in hostilities while both sides take care of short-term domestic interests.

Negative Interest Rates Are Destroying Our Pensions
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 17, 2019
A new survey shows unorthodox monetary policies are eating away at our nest eggs. Relief may be at hand.

Wealth Taxes Don't Reduce Inequality
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 17, 2019
There are too many have-nots and too few haves to make much difference.

Boris Johnson's Brexit Is More "Slow Deal" Than "No Deal"
Therese Raphael (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 17, 2019
Prime minister wants to show his new supporters he can deliver, but he can still delay if needed or leave the door open for more trade talks post-2020.

Six Tax-Based Ways to Tackle US Inequality
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Dec 17, 2019
Some of the leading candidates for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination have proposed radical measures to reduce inequality, such as a wealth tax. But there are many other progressive tax policies that would be both easier to enforce and more likely to get a Democratic candidate elected.

When Is Knowledge Power?
Katrina Kosec and Leonard Wantchekon (Project Syndicate) Dec 17, 2019
In theory, a growing supply of information could help improve governance, infrastructure, and delivery of services such as education, health care, and agricultural extension. But if information is to meet its potential to help the world's poor, three conditions must be met.

Can the Belt and Road Help Countries Replicate China's Development Successes?
David Skidmore (Diplomat) Dec 17, 2019
Ironically, the solutions proposed by the BRI contradict China's own development model.

Triumphant Boris Johnson Bucks Pressure to Draw Out Brexit
Keith Johnson (FP) Dec 17, 2019
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Tuesday he will block any extension to Britain's transition period for leaving the European Union, making a trade deal much harder to achieve.

China-Dependent Economies Showing Signs of Stabilization
Michael Pugliese and Nick Bennenbroek (WF) Dec 17, 2019
Economic growth in China-dependent economies has stabilized over the past couple quarters. There are emerging signs that the slowdown over the past year and a half will not be as bad as 1998, 2001 or 2008-2009.

Betting on a rise in crude remains a risky gambit
David Sheppard (FT) Dec 18, 2019
Dividends are attractive but chasing rallies in oil price is perilous.

Investors rely on short-term supports at their peril
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Dec 18, 2019
A banner year has relied on positive news flow rather than fundamental change.

Repo risks still hang over upbeat end to year in markets
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Dec 18, 2019
Many key threats to investors have been contained, but wrinkles in short-term lending remain.

The UK is stress testing banks for climate risk, others must follow
Mark Carney (FT) Dec 18, 2019
The financial sector can amplify the positive impact of new carbon emissions policies.

The Fed's Libor Replacement Would Shackle Small Banks
Scott A. Shay (WSJ) Dec 18, 2019
The new proposed benchmark is a bad fit for most borrowers, and could freeze credit in the event of a crisis.

I'll Vote Against This Antitrade Agreement
Pat Toomey (WSJ) Dec 18, 2019
It's the first pact ever whose purpose is to discourage commerce between nations.

WTO caught in crossfire of US-China trade war
Gordon Watts (AT) Dec 18, 2019
Trump managed to paralyze the global trade body as Washington's patience snapped over Beijing's economic policy.

2019 in Review: The Global Economy Explained in 5 Charts
Gita Gopinath, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Malhar Nabar (IMF) Dec 18, 2019
Global growth this year recorded its weakest pace since the global financial crisis a decade ago, reflecting common influences across countries and country-specific factors.

The United States and China See Things Differently. Can They Reach an Understanding?
Paul Haenle (CTCGP) Dec 18, 2020
The world's two largest economies are locked in competition. What drives their different narratives, and how should they avoid a larger confrontation?

Year-End Tailwind: De-Escalating Policy Risks
Libby Cantrill (PIMCO) Dec 18, 2019
The U.S.-China trade deal is one of three diminishing policy risks, but investors shouldn't assume that all policy uncertainty has been eliminated.

China's Got a Chip on Its Shoulder
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 18, 2019
Investors bet that the likes of Huawei will need domestic suppliers when the trade war crimps imports.

Dollar Is Poised to Weaken Just in Time
Conor Sen (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 18, 2019
Most of the forces that pushed up the dollar and held back growth are easing.

China and the West Race to the Top
David Sainsbury (Project Syndicate) Dec 18, 2019
Although macroeconomic stability and efficient markets are essential conditions for economic growth, they do not drive it. If the West wants to compete effectively against China and other fast-growing Asian countries, governments need to make innovation central to their economic policies.

Elizabeth Warren's Bold Ideas Don't Go Far Enough
Daron Acemoglu (Project Syndicate) Dec 18, 2019
For decades, US median household wages have barely budged, and politicians on both the left and right have lost sight of what drives a modern economy. What America needs are policies to shape the direction of technological development and restore workers' bargaining power.

Europe's Age of Humiliation
Slawomir Sierakowski (Project Syndicate) Dec 18, 2019
The European Union is ending 2019 seemingly helpless and resigned in the face of its biggest challenges. If this stagnation continues, the only question is whether Europe will become a satellite of the United States or of China.

Europe Must Avoid Self-Fulfilling Pessimism
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Dec 18, 2019
Despite the pessimism that has pervaded Europe in recent years, the fact is that the EU remains an economic and regulatory superpower, with massive diplomatic potential. If Europeans recognize this, regain their collective self-confidence, and take constructive action, their future can be bright.

China's Impact on Global Financial Markets
Isha Agarwal, Grace Weishi Gu, and Eswar Prasad (VoxChina) Dec 18, 2019
China has been shifting the composition of its external assets from accumulation of foreign reserves toward private, nonofficial outflows. This article provides an overview of the allocation patterns of outward equity investment by Chinese institutional investors (IIs) across destination countries and sectors. In their foreign portfolios, Chinese IIs overweight sectors in which China has a comparative disadvantage (for instance, computer software), and they concentrate such investments in countries that have a higher comparative advantage in those sectors (for instance, the US). Diversification and country-sector information advantages (related to the sources of China's imports) seem to influence patterns of foreign portfolio allocations, while yield-seeking and learning motives do not.

The Democratic People's Republic of U.S. Monetary Policy
Leah Downey (FP) Dec 18, 2019
U.S. monetary policy is not decided democratically but is left in the hands of Federal Reserve officials. And Congress is outsourcing more policy to the Fed, further consolidating this control.

Two US trade deals bring only temporary relief
FT View Dec 19, 2019
Washington no longer behaves like a maker and enforcer of rules.

Offshoring slows as wages rise in some emerging economies
Steve Johnson (FT) Dec 19, 2019
Narrowing pay gaps are reducing competitive advantage for traditional destinations.

India protectionists put brakes on trade liberalisation
Alan Beattie (FT) Dec 19, 2019
Powerful domestic interests temper promises to embrace international deals.

Africa's mixed blessings in 2019
David Pilling (FT) Dec 19, 2019
Despite floods, famine and disputed Congo elections, hopes rose in Sudan and the fintech sector.

Wanted: a mere mortal to run the Bank of England
Chris Giles (FT) Dec 19, 2019
Today's low interest world means that the governor's job has changed.

The US and China Have Very Different Takes on IDA and the Global Fund: Why that Matters for the Future of Multilateral Aid
Amanda Glassman and Scott Morris (CGD) Dec 19, 2019
The World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) has long played the central role in the international aid architecture, if by no other measure than its scale of financing for the world's low-income countries. IDA's most recent round of fundraising generated a record-setting $82 billion for programming over the next three years. This pot of money, representing $27 billion in annual programming for eligible countries, preserves IDA's role as the largest source of development assistance in the world.

Phase One China Deal: Steep Tariffs Are the New Normal
Chad P. Bown (PIIE) Dec 19, 2019
Nearly two years after President Donald Trump fired the opening shot in his trade war with China, the smoke is clearing on what seems to be the new normal in the troubled US-China economic relationship. Some previously threatened tariffs poised to hurt American shoppers are not taking effect. Some existing US tariffs are being cut in half. China is stepping up purchases of agriculture, energy, and other goods. But overall, tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of US trade remain in effect, and no pathway has emerged for the two countries to return to pre–trade war amity.

The USTR Tariff Exclusion Process: Five Things to Know About These Opaque Handouts
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu (PIIE) Dec 19, 2019
President Donald Trump's tariff war with China has been under way for about 18 months. As lead warrior, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has announced, threatened, or rescinded several rounds of tariffs on nearly all Chinese imports, culminating in the "phase one" deal announced on December 13, 2019, lowering tariffs on some goods and canceling planned imposition of others.

Lessons from the China-US trade truce
Uri Dadush and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez (Bruegel) Dec 19, 2019
The tentatively agreed deal between China and the United States temporarily stops a dangerous dynamic, yet it falls far short of the negotiating objectives of both sides. US trade policy has become a dominion of the executive branch guided principally by the President's electoral interests. Meanwhile, China demonstrates its capacity to resist pressure: it will enact structural reforms at its own pace in line with its interests. Sadly, the deal confirms that the United States no longer feels obligated to follow WTO rules, and can induce others to do the same.

Striking the Right Balance Between Sustainable Development and Sustainable Debt
Kristalina Georgieva (IMF) Dec 19, 2019
A balanced approach is needed.

Central Banks Want New Powers, But at What Cost?
Alberto Gallo (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 19, 2019
Linking monetary policies with governments' fiscal policies is likely to have negative consequences.

Wary of CLOs? Global Regulator Makes It Worse
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 19, 2019
The Financial Stability Board flags leveraged-loan risks while admitting much remains unknown.

Sweden's Hike Holds a Lesson for the ECB
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 19, 2019
Misguided anxiety about subzero rates has led to unnecessary tightening. Other banks should take heed.

Sweden Says Enough Is Enough on Negative Rates
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 19, 2019
The Riksbank parts with its peers because of concerns about collateral damage and unintended consequences.

China's Civilizational Challenge
Chin-Huat Wong (Project Syndicate) Dec 19, 2019
Far from enabling China's peaceful reunification, the "one country, two systems" model for governing Hong Kong is undermining it. Perhaps this was inevitable: the Chinese state, built on a millennia-old paradigm of political order, cannot cope with intra-governmental conflict.

Not Another Arab Spring
Shlomo Ben-Ami (Project Syndicate) Dec 19, 2019
Today's Arab protesters have adjusted their tactics and objectives to reflect the lessons of the Arab Spring. But whether they can overcome the resistance of their governments' repressive apparatuses to secure genuine governance improvements remains far from certain.

Is Huawei Really More Dangerous than Facebook?
Ngaire Woods (Project Syndicate) Dec 19, 2019
US President Donald Trump's campaign against leading Chinese technology companies is driven by legitimate concerns. But are they so different from the worries that democratic societies should have about American social-media and technology companies?

Globalisation and regulation in the European football industry
Ariela Caglio, Sébastien Laffitte, Donato Masciandaro, and Gianmarco Ottaviano (VoxEU) Dec 19, 2019
One of the most important challenges of globalisation is to adapt regulations to new conditions imposed by global competition. This column argues that the introduction by UEFA of its Financial Fair Play regulations, with their break-even requirements for European football clubs, represents an exemplary case of how a change of accounting measurement rules motivated by international competition in the sports entertainment industry can shape businesses' decisions by redefining their preferences and incentives towards better economic performance.

Pakistan's High-Stakes CPEC Reboot
Michael Kugelman (FP) Dec 19, 2019
Pakistan's government faces a balancing act: corralling the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to ensure benefits—rather than damage—to the Pakistani economy.

World Bank warns on 'towering' $55tn emerging market debt pile
Tommy Stubbington (FT) Dec 20, 2019
Fastest and widest surge in borrowing poses risk should era of low interest rates end.

Sweden worries it created a negative-rates monster
Katie Martin (FT) Dec 20, 2019
Central bank raises rate to zero and says it expects to hold it there 'in coming years'.

How Venezuela caused investors to lose hope in 2019
Colby Smith (FT) Dec 20, 2019
'Hardcore fear of missing out' prompted a big rally that did not last.

Forget impeachment. Passage of the USMCA is the most important headline this week.
Henry Olsen (WP) Dec 20, 2019
The new trade agreement will help revitalize U.S. manufacturing and begin to ensure economic benefits are shared by all.

The WTO is dead: long live the WTO?
Maria Demertzis (Bruegel) Dec 20, 2019
Should the EU fight to save the WTO when the US seeks to dismantle it? We argue that the only way for the EU to decide that is to first understand the US's strategy (as distinct from its tactics) and then make up its mind in terms of how much of a threat it perceives China to be.

Global Challenges to Prepare for in 2020
David Rothkopf (Brink) Dec 20, 2019
2019 has been a whirlwind of upheaval around the world, from the U.S.-China trade relationship to Guyana's oil bonanza. It's been a turbulent year, and it begs the question — what will 2020 have in store? Predictions of the primary global issues to watch in the coming year.

France's Pension Riots Are a Warning to the World
Andreas Kluth (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 20, 2019
In nearly every rich country, the retirement age will need to rise to make pension systems sustainable.

Banks Are Impossible for Anyone to Understand
Elisa Martinuzzi (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 20, 2019
If even the auditing profession can't police the opaque world of risk-weighted assets, what hope is there for investors and regulators?

Don't Use Repo Volatility as a Reason to Roll Back Bank Regulations
Timothy P Clark (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 20, 2019
Effective standards aren't causing the turmoil despite claims to the contrary.

Why the US-China Trade War Could Re-escalate
Anne O. Krueger (Project Syndicate) Dec 20, 2019
The "phase one" trade deal between the United States and China addresses only some of the US government's concerns, and its remaining demands will be much harder to resolve. But while both America and China have an interest in the success of the open multilateral global trading system, current US policy is undermining that goal.

Three New Year's Wishes for Britain and the EU
Michel Barnier (Project Syndicate) Dec 20, 2019
The United Kingdom's general election this month settled the matter of Brexit: the UK will leave the European Union on January 31, 2020. It will then be up to the two sides to lay the groundwork for a future relationship based on mutual trust and shared interests.

The Illusion of a Rules-Based Global Order
Brahma Chellaney (Project Syndicate) Dec 20, 2019
International law today is powerful against the powerless, and powerless against the powerful. As long as this is true, a rules-based global order will remain a fig leaf for the forcible pursuit of national interests.

Will the USMCA Change Mexico for the Better?
Jorge G. Castañeda (Project Syndicate) Dec 20, 2019
The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement may well succeed in marginally improving America's position regarding jobs, investment, labor, the environment, and dispute settlement. But if the pact is intended to boost Mexico's economic growth and welfare, and bolster the rule of law, it will not achieve these goals any time soon.

Economic causes of populism: Important, marginally important, or important on the margin
Yotam Margalit (VoxEU) Dec 20, 2019
A common explanation for the rise of populism is economic insecurity driven by forces such as trade, immigration, or the financial crisis. This column, part of the Vox debate on populism, argues that such view overstates the role of economic insecurity as a driver. In particular, it conflates economic insecurity being important in explaining the overall populist vote and being important by affecting election outcomes on the margin. The empirical findings indicate that the share of populist support explained by economic insecurity is modest.

The ECB after the crisis
Nuno Cassola, Christoffer Kok, and Francesco Paolo Mongelli (VoxEU) Dec 20, 2019
In 2012, European leaders decided to establish a pan-European supervisory authority at the ECB, and in November 2014 direct banking supervision and an important role in financial stability were added to the monetary policy responsibilities of the central bank. This column examines what this has meant for the organisational structure of the ECB, asking why the decision was made, what the working arrangements of this enlarged ECB are, and what the similarities and synergies among these three functions are.

Outlook 2020: Fragile – handle with care
Stefan Schneider (DB Research) Dec 20, 2020
In 2019 we've been asked lots of questions about the German economy, politics – fiscal policy and the black zero, in particular – and, more fundamentally, about Germany's future given the risk of a more permanent reversal of globalisation, the increased environmental focus, the challenges for the German car industry and the widespread notion that Germany might miss the boat on the big data economy and other technological trends. This is why we are also discussing these issues in this report. For 2020 we anticipate a gradual recovery in global trade, which should enable a piecemeal recovery in exports and help end the industrial recession. We expect equipment spending to decline in 2020. On the other hand, the domestic growth pillars – private and government consumption as well as construction – should continue to expand at a healthy clip. But annual GDP growth of 1% forecast for 2020 after 0.5% in 2019 is clearly underwhelming, especially since the acceleration versus 2019 is almost exclusively the result of an unusually high number of working days in 2020.

New Bank of England governor offers stability
FT View Dec 21, 2019
Competent insider will bring continuity amid turmoil elsewhere.

Pensions and intra-generational equity
Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, and Gylfi Zoega (VoxEU) Dec 21, 2019
Everyone contributes equally to government-run pension schemes, but not everyone will spend the same number of years in retirement – blue-collar workers, for instance, do not live as long as their white-collar counterparts. Rather than pooling the resources of a heterogeneous group of workers, this column proposes that each worker receive a lump sum at a certain age, which they can then give to an occupational pension fund better informed about the life expectancy of its own participants.

Global food supply chains are caught in a honey trap
Wendell Steavenson (FT) Dec 22, 2019
Our willingness to pay more for premium is causing counterfeit products to proliferate.

America's competitiveness problem
Rana Foroohar (FT) Dec 22, 2019
A dysfunctional dance between business and politics is at the root of the country's woes.

Venezuela Desperately Seeks Dollars
Mary Anastasia O'Grady (WSJ) Dec 22, 2019
U.S. sanctions fail to unseat Maduro. The regime is still feeling the pinch.

Wealth inequality persists, by whatever measure
Boston Globe Dec 22, 2019
There is little doubt that at the very top of the ladder, there are enormous amounts of wealth.

Modi's triumphal year
Robin Jeffrey (EAF) Dec 22, 2019
This has been a time of living triumphally for India's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its Hindu-chauvinist support group, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. Decisive action was the catch cry of the BJP's torrential communications strategy. But decisive action to what end?

China's Economy May Be No. 1, But It Is Still Poor
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 22, 2019
When it comes to national wealth, the U.S. has a big lead over China.

Trade Secrets: a year in charts
Alan Beattie (FT) Dec 23, 2019
It has been another tumultuous 12 months in trade — and more of the same is expected in 2020.

China's new foreign investment law is a missed opportunity
Harry Broadman (FT) Dec 23, 2019
The revised policy regime will not spur needed domestic competition and growth.

China's $1.3tn global spending spree will collapse, says top US official
James Politi and Demetri Sevastopulo (FT) Dec 23, 2019
Development finance chief warns Beijing's infrastructure investments will shatter economies.

How 2019's mammoth bond rally buoyed the entire eurozone
Tommy Stubbington (FT) Dec 23, 2019
Return of ECB's debt-buying programme plays central role.

Li warns of China's economic dangers in 2020
Gordon Watts (AT) Dec 23, 2019
Government officials told to keep their eyes glued on 'downward pressure' in a 'complex situation'.

More Fiscal Transparency Would Mean Better Economic Policy in India
IMF Dec 23, 2019
Economic development projects and enhanced social initiatives in India will be vital in the coming years. But to generate the revenue needed to get them off the ground, India's debt—among the highest in emerging markets—must be reduced. Despite some improvement in reported fiscal deficits, debt as a share of GDP remains little changed over the past decade partly due to increases in off-budget financing.

Six Things to Know about Ethiopia's New Program
IMF Dec 23, 2019
The IMF has approved a program for Ethiopia of almost US$3 billion. The program is aimed at supporting the Ethiopian government's own Homegrown Economic Reform Program, which is designed to eliminate macroeconomic imbalances and lay the foundation for sustainable and inclusive growth. The authorities want the economy to transition away from being public sector-led to one that is driven by the private sector.

The City of London Starts to Crack Over Brexit
Elisa Martinuzzi (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 23, 2019
The U.K. finance industry is becoming divided on Brexit. That is far from ideal as Britain moves into the crucial stage of EU trade talks.

Argentina's Bright Young Hope
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Dec 23, 2019
Martin Guzmán is among the world's leading experts on sovereign debt and the problems it can cause. With his appointment as Argentina's Minister of Economy by President Alberto Fernández, Guzmán has become the right person in the right place at the right time.

Toward a Privileged EU-UK Partnership
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) Dec 23, 2019
After the United Kingdom's general election this month, the Brexit debate is over. The country will leave the European Union on January 31, 2020, which means that now is the time to start drafting a blueprint for the future relationship, particularly regarding security policy.

Escaping the Inequality-Data Dark Ages
Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman (Project Syndicate) Dec 23, 2019
Even as perceptions of rising inequality undermine the foundations of democracy, data on wealth and income trends remain woefully inadequate. It is in the interest of all societies to develop an internationally recognized set of indicators and methods for tracking income, wealth, and effective tax rates accurately and transparently.

Trump Will Make China Great Again
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Dec 23, 2019
Despite the latest Sino-American "skinny deal" to ease tensions over trade, technology, and other issues, it is now clear that the world's two largest economies have entered a new era of sustained competition. How the relationship will evolve depends greatly on America's political leadership – which does not bode well.

The Crisis of 2020
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Dec 23, 2019
It doesn't take much to spark corrections in vulnerable economies and markets, and big shocks to highly vulnerable systems are a recipe for crisis. That's why the vulnerability of today's global economy – reflected in real economies, financial asset prices, and misguided monetary policy – needs to be taken seriously.

King Boris's First Test
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Dec 23, 2019
With the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union now set to take effect on January 31, 2020, the most important challenge facing UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is negotiating his country's new relationship with the bloc. He has every incentive to keep that process as non-controversial as possible.

Wealth taxation: The Swiss experience
Marius Brülhart, Jonathan Gruber, Matthias Krapf, and Kurt Schmidheiny (VoxEU) Dec 23, 2019
Wealth taxes are in vogue, and academic research on the subject is picking up. Recent studies have produced widely diverging estimates of the elasticity of the wealth tax base. Some of this is due to methodological differences. This column analyses wealth taxes in Swiss cantons and shows that jurisdiction size and enforcement also play a role. When applied at the sub-national level and without third-party reporting, wealth taxes are particularly easily avoided.

Trade policy after three years of populism: A global assessment
Simon Evenett and Johannes Fritz (VoxEU) Dec 23, 2019
The populist and nationalist turn in many nations' politics has sharpened the rhetoric against globalisation. This column introduces the latest Global Trade Alert report, which confirms that this rhetoric has translated into greater protectionism and less trade liberalisation worldwide.

China's Central Asian Plans Are Unnerving Moscow
Reid Standish (FP) Dec 23, 2019
China is expanding its economic footprint in Central Asia, which Russia has long considered to be within its grasp. Although Moscow is content to work with Beijing, it worries that Chinese influence in the region will eventually outpace its own.

China banks: still standing
Lex (FT) Dec 24, 2019
2019 hits and misses: 'big five' ended year on a roll despite trade war and economic slowdown.

Why 2019 was not as bad as you think
Robin Harding (FT) Dec 24, 2019
In countries where many poor people live, output grew fast.

Free trade elusive for China, Japan, South Korea
Andrew Salmon (AT) Dec 24, 2019
China's Li makes plea for FTA, promises to open up services sector and increase transparency, predictability.

The Wealth Redistribution Scam that Is "Inflation
Thosten Polleit (Mises Wire) Dec 24, 2019
As money loses its purchasing power, income and wealth are stealthily redistributed. Some individuals and groups of people are enriched at the expense of others.

AI and the Productivity Paradox
Georgios Petropoulos (Bruegel) Dec 24, 2019
In this blog post, I review the main explanations for this paradox and I briefly discuss relevant policy options in order to increase the contribution of AI on productivity

Fixing Indian Finance After the Crisis
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 24, 2019
Getting back on track toward economic greatness in the 2020s depends on finding the will of the 1990s.

China Takes a Risk on GenZ's Love Affair With Debt
Nisha Gopalan (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 24, 2019
Growth amid the trade war may depend too much on consumption fed by high-interest lending.

Greece Gets a Dose of McKinsey Management
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 24, 2019
Markets like the economic plans of Kyriakos Mitsotakis but some of his GDP and foreign investment targets look very optimistic.

Deflating a Bubble Before It Busts Would Be Huge
Noah Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 24, 2019
Economists are coming up with tools that just might do the job.

Power Cuts Are Plaguing Southern Africa. The Region Needs Renewable Energy.
Tonderayi Mukeredzi (FP) Dec 24, 2019
Zimbabwe and South Africa are facing an electricity crisis, but the region has a rich supply of natural energy sources—a prime opportunity for investment.

The United States Needs a Strategy for Artificial Intelligence
Martijn Rasser (FP) Dec 24, 2019
Without one, it risks missing out on all the technology's benefits—and falling behind rivals such as China.

Shinzo Abe Can't Afford to Rest on His Laurels
William Sposato (FP) Dec 24, 2019
Japan's longest-serving prime minister has tough times ahead for 2020.

Capitalism Isn't a 'System'
Barton Swaim (WSJ) Dec 25, 2019
Socialists err dangerously when they assume a market economy is a conscious project.

Yogi Bear's Oddly Familiar Struggle for U.N. Recognition
Anjali Dayal (FP) Dec 25, 2019
The 1961 comic book Yogi Bear Visits the U.N. evokes classic dilemmas and common strategies with regard to the international organization.

Deadlock reflects Europe's malaise over integration
Tony Barber (FT) Dec 26, 2019
The fiscal stalemate derives in part from the frictions in Franco-German relations.

Low rates are perfect for tackling climate change
Deirdre Cooper (FT) Dec 26, 2019
Renewables' costs tend to be front-loaded and deliver savings over time.

Where the hell is 'womenomics' in Japan?
William Pesek (AT) Dec 26, 2019
Japan desperately needs to have more women in leading roles if it wants to lift its economic game.

Trump's Trade Wars Expose an Abiding Truth
Pankaj Mishra (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 26, 2019
Free trade turns out to be something that helps a rising great power, until it doesn't.

Trump Won't Be Able to Let China Slide on Trade Deal
Christopher Balding (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 26, 2019
How much Beijing complies with the recent agreement will set the tone for relations in an election year.

Was Marx Right?
Andrés Velasco and Luis Felipe Céspedes (Project Syndicate) Dec 26, 2019
Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels did not claim only that capitalist development engenders its own contradictions, but also that those contradictions could be overcome only through the "forcible overthrow of all existing social conditions." It is up to governments to carry out – and soon – the reforms needed to prove Marx and Engels wrong.

Child Marriage in Nigeria: Wedded to Poverty
Nonyelum A. Ujam (YaleGlobal) Dec 26, 2019
Child marriage is a social malaise that limits education and economic opportunities for families and nations

Trade War and Peace
Chris Miller (FP) Dec 26, 2019
With the new China deal, Trump may see 2020 as the year he'll win the United States' trade wars. Instead, they'll likely spin further out of his control.

The challenges emerging markets investors must avoid in 2020
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Dec 27, 2019
Health of US and global economy appears supportive, but sector is peppered with risks.

Inequality Is Up a Lot. The Question Is: How Much?
Noah Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 27, 2019
Economists reach very different conclusions based on their assumptions.

China M&A Bankers Face Another Grim Year
Nisha Gopalan (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 27, 2019
Growing protectionism and Beijing's campaign to control debt will keep a lid on overseas purchases in 2020.

Shale's Amazing, World-Changing, Lousy Decade
Liam Denning (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 27, 2019
A historic boom in production was a bust for stock prices.

A Low, Dishonest Decade
Kaushik Basu (Project Syndicate) Dec 27, 2019
Eighty years ago, the poet W.H. Auden wrote that "Waves of anger and fear / Circulate over the bright / And darkened lands of the earth." Like Auden in 1939, we must accept the possibility that things could become far worse than they already are.

Imagining a World Without Capitalism
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Dec 27, 2019
On September 24, 1599, not far from where Shakespeare was struggling to finish Hamlet, the first corporation with tradable shares was born. Liberalism's fatal hypocrisy was to celebrate the virtuous neighborhood butchers, bakers, and brewers in order to defend all the East India Companies that have since made a mockery of freedom.

Making the Best of a Bad Brexit
Willem H. Buiter (Project Syndicate) Dec 27, 2019
The United Kingdom has avoided the disaster of Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn's radical socialism, but remains on track for a long grind through and after the post-Brexit transition period. Negotiating a new trade relationship with the European Union – not to mention the wider world – will take years.

Make Europe Relevant Again
Sigmar Gabriel and Christoph Bornschein (Project Syndicate) Dec 27, 2019
The competition between the US and China for technological supremacy has revealed Europe's fundamental weakness in the twenty-first century. A community of nation-states built around a shared project to ensure regional peace and prosperity is now surrendering its economic power and autonomy to foreign firms.

'The Pendulum Has Swung Back': Latin America's Corruption Fight Stalls
Ernesto Londono & Leticia Casado (NYT) Dec 28, 2019
A drive against graft that started in Brazil left many hoping for a fairer, more equal region. That era is over.

What an Independent Britain Could Learn from Singapore
Ferghane Azihari (Mises Wire) Dec 28, 2019
Singapore left both the British Empire and Malaysia before finally becoming an independent city. It then proceeded to become one of history's most impressive economic success stories.

When the Ultimate Refuge Turns Risky
Satyajit Das (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 28, 2019
Sovereign bonds have gone from a traditional haven to a financial system fault line as government debt has expanded.

What's in Store for China's Economy in 2020?
Plamen Tonchev (Diplomat) Dec 28, 2019
2020, as well as the decade after it, will be fraught with difficulties for China.

China's authoritarian turn is a challenge for the world
FT View Dec 29, 2019
Beijing's increasing inflexibility on the global stage risks backfiring.

Latin America must kick its addiction to oil-powered development
Michael Stott (FT) Dec 29, 2019
Ambitious plans for renewable energy rarely feature in government strategy.

The algorithms' vision for 2020
Gavyn Davies (FT) Dec 29, 2019
What should we expect in the economies and markets next year?

Bigger oil looks set to have its day in US shale
Gregory Meyer (FT) Dec 29, 2019
Several factors point to larger companies leading consolidation.

2019 was the year of inequality
Robert Samuelson (WP) Dec 29, 2019
That spells great danger for 2020.

How India's Economy Came Back Down to Earth
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 29, 2019
Rarely has a major economy had such a humbling turn in fortunes. The usual saviors aren't much help.

India's Rightward Lurch Is Self-Defeating
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 29, 2019
A newly aggressive and right-wing foreign policy doesn't bode well for the country's future alliances.

Say Goodbye to Banking as We Know It
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 29, 2019
China is poised to launch the first national digital currency. There will be no counting the disruption.

Retreat of Negative Rates Isn't an All-Clear for Investors
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 29, 2019
Governments appear reluctant to pick up where central banks leave off.

Is EU competition policy a drag on digital innovation?
Martin Sandbu (FT) Dec 30, 2019
Changing role of regulation offers the bloc's markets both threat and promise.

A productive economic bubble is my wish for 2020
Rana Foroohar (FT) Dec 30, 2019
Speculation is a part of innovation and in the right conditions it can be a positive force.

How Tariffs Hurt Manufacturing
WSJ Dec 30, 2019
A new Fed study shows the damage swamped any benefits.

Will Recession Strike in 2020?
Burton G. Malkiel and Atanu Saha (WSJ) Dec 30, 2019
Even the best indicators of downturns are unreliable, but investors can take steps to prepare either way.

The Legacy of Destructive Austerity
Paul Krugman (NYT) Dec 30, 2019
The deficit obsession of 2010-2015 did permanent damage.

The Next China? Vietnam Looks Good Only on Paper
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 30, 2019
Forget winning the U.S.-China trade war. For investors, an unbalanced stock market reflects profitless prosperity.

This Man Holds Europe Together as Brexit Tears It Apart
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 30, 2019
Against the odds, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator brokered a divorce deal by keeping the bloc's remaining 27 countries in lock step. He faces an even bigger test now.

A Turning Point for Development Aid
Justin Yifu Lin and Yan Wang (Project Syndicate) Dec 30, 2019
China's development lending to already-indebted countries has provoked accusations that it is engaging in "debt-trap diplomacy." This reflects a narrow understanding of development assistance that has hampered progress in low-income countries for far too long.

Does Inattention Explain Today's Low Inflation?
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Dec 30, 2019
In the 1980s and 1990s, people were acutely aware of inflationary risks, whereas economic actors today may be setting their expectations based on a different set of considerations. Given the powerful role of expectations in determining economic outcomes, this could be enough to alter the functioning of the business cycle.

China's Damaging Policy Disruptions
Zhang Jun (Project Syndicate) Dec 30, 2019
Like an overprotective parent, China's central government needs to learn to let go. While a more relaxed approach to economic management carries some short-term risks, it is essential to future growth and prosperity.

How to Scale Up Sustainable Infrastructure
Christian Déséglise and Delfina Lopez Freijido (Project Syndicate) Dec 30, 2019
The global transition to a low-carbon economy is facing significant headwinds, and bolder action is urgently needed to avoid unacceptable global warming risks. Addressing current bottlenecks in the development and financing of sustainable infrastructure can help to transform a critical sector and step up the fight against climate change.

Getting Past Reagan
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Dec 30, 2019
The question for the 2020 US election season seems straightforward: Should Americans continue with some version of the Reagan regime, which is likely to deliver consistently mediocre growth and extreme income inequality? But the real question is how to enact policies resisted by the oligarchy that the Reagan Revolution created.

The Year of the Trade Truce
Salvatore Babones (FP) Dec 30, 2019
The "phase one" trade deal between China and the United States did little more than call a truce between the sparring powers. The main issues remain unresolved.

How Britain can prosper after it leaves the EU
FT View Dec 31, 2019
Economy needs to remain international but support the left-behind.

The eurozone's tectonic plates are shifting
Martin Sandbu (FT) Dec 31, 2019
Debate on the future of monetary union has come out into the open — that is a game-changer.

Turkey takes Ponzi scheme into 2020
Byozlem Albayrak (AT) Dec 31, 2019
Government insists worst is over, but reliance on public debt to manage private debt bodes more trouble ahead.

"Rules of Origin" Show Why "Trade Agreements" Aren't Free Trade
Robert P. Murphy (Mises Wire) Dec 31, 2019
A "free trade agreement" in practice isn't simply an index card declaring, "Tariffs on Country X are 0 percent, three cheers for Bastiat!" These are managed trade agreements, with hundreds of pages devoted to detailed regulations that smack of top-down Soviet planning.

Why It's So Hard to Forecast the Economy
Gary Shilling (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 31, 2019
Normal cyclical patterns have gone missing, and may not be coming back anytime soon.

Behind the Bond Boom No One Saw Coming in 2019
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 31, 2019
You were probably wrong about fixed income this year. Don't worry, so was everybody else.

Green Shoots Lurk in Latin America's Lost Decade
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 31, 2019
Better government, social justice and transparency in government poke through the gloom.

Wages Are Based More on Productivity, Less on Exploitation
Michael R Strain (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 31, 2019
Capitalism isn't broken. This is how it's supposed to work.

Oilfield Services Ends the 2010s With a Bang and a Whimper
Liam Denning (Bloomberg Opinion) Dec 31, 2019
Core Labs cutting its recently "sacrosanct" dividend is a sign of changed times.

Why Governments Should Not Wait for Godot
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Dec 31, 2019
For foreign investment, governments need organizational capabilities that go beyond Adam Smith's maxim that they must do no more than ensure "peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice." They need to do at least three additional things.

The Global Economy 2020: A Positive Outlook Shadowed by China, Debt, and Trade Tensions
Keith Johnson (FP) Dec 31, 2019
Experts expect growth to rebound, but many of their projections are built on shaky foundations.