Rome needs reform but stability is the priority
FT View Dec 1, 2016
Renzi should stay on, whatever the result of Sunday’s referendum.
An accord that spells the beginning of the end for Opec
Nick Butler (FT) Dec 1, 2016
The cartel cannot enforce this pact . The oil price will probably soon fall back.
Understanding the Trump Trade Agenda
Phil Gramm and Michael Solon (WSJ) Dec 1, 2016
Returning to the 1950s is impossible. But currency manipulation does hurt American workers.
China capital flight curbs target international renminbi and gold
Gabriel Wildau, Henry Sanderson, Lucy Hornby and Tom Mitchell (FT) Dec 1, 2016
Restrictions are part of Beijing push to boost currency and protect forex reserves.
The populist right sweeps aside the left
Philip Stephens (FT) Dec 1, 2016
The beginning of wisdom is that populism can be beaten only from the hard centre
Lawmakers in EU, Canada Begin Consideration of CETA Trade Deal
Bridges, Volume 20, Number 41 Dec 1, 2016
The next stage in the approval process for the EU-Canada trade pact is now getting underway, officials say, with parliamentary committees in Europe preparing to vote on the accord in the coming weeks. On the other side of the Atlantic, the deal has already been tabled in the Canadian parliament for legislative consideration.
US. China Officials Review Economic Cooperation, Next Steps for Steel
Bridges, Volume 20, Number 41 Dec 1, 2016
Trade officials from the US and China concluded an annual series of meetings last week aimed at addressing bilateral challenges and opportunities for collaboration – including the global steel crisis – along with preparing for the upcoming change in administration in Washington.
Statistical Insights: Blowing bubbles? Developments in house prices
OECD Statistics Directorate (OECD Insights) Dec 1, 2016
There is a positive correlation between fluctuations in house prices and in economic activity, but the relationship may have weakened over time, and it differs across countries.
Welcome to Trumponomics: A Variant of “Economic Nationalism”
Jean-Francois Boittin (Globalist) Dec 1, 2016
Trump’s perspective on globalization, trade and capitalism is very black and white. Is there any nuance?
The U.K.'s Industrial Policy Is Bound to Backfire
Victoria Bateman (Bloomberg View) Dec 1, 2016
Past governments have tried to pick winners. It rarely works.
The OPEC Oil Deal Sells Fake News for Real Money
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Dec 1, 2016
Saudia Arabia and Russia have mastered the art of regulating oil prices with verbal interventions.
Europe’s December Day of Reckoning
Philipp Ther (Project Syndicate) Dec 1, 2016
The EU is the greatest alliance of democratic states in modern history, but, strangely, those who champion it have come to fear democratic votes. They are now waiting with bated breath for December 4, when Italians will vote on a constitutional referendum, and Austrians will choose their next president.
Preventing the Next Eurozone Crisis Starts Now
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Dec 1, 2016
There are no quick fixes to the eurozone’s problems, but the lack of genuine discussion on possible futures is a serious cause for concern. Silence is not always golden; for the sake of Europe’s future, the hush surrounding the common currency should be broken as soon as possible.
Vanguard's economic and market outlook
Joe Davis (Vanguard) Dec 1, 2016
Key trends for the global economy and markets in 2017.
Ukrainians Find Economic Refuge in Poland--For Now
Hannah Thoburn (WA) Dec 1, 2016
Poland's higher wages have attracted 400,000 temporary workers from Ukraine who have replaced Poles who left for the UK. But this migrant harmony might sing a different tune after Brexit.
Seizing Opportunity in a Post-TPP World
Stephen S. Roach (YaleGlobal) Dec 1, 2016
Trump dismisses TPP, but could pursue another big opportunity – the US-China Bilateral Investment Treaty
Bribery Is on the Rise Worldwide, and It Costs A Lot More Than Just Money
Robbie Gramer (FP) Dec 1, 2016
Corruption, graft, and palm-greasing are a real and growing drag on the global economy — and they open the door to a host of evils like drug smuggling and human trafficking.
Globalization Resets
Sebastian Mallaby (F&D) Dec 1, 2016
The retrenchment in cross-border capital flows and trade may be less dire than it seems.
Get on Track with Trade
Maurice Obstfeld (F&D) Dec 1, 2016
Trade raises productivity but may hurt some unless policies redistribute the benefits.
A Spoonful of Sugar
Florence Jaumotte, Ksenia Koloskova, and Sweta Saxena (F&D) Dec 1, 2016
Immigration raises incomes and confers benefits on advanced economies.
A Two-Way Street
David Lipton (F&D) Dec 1, 2016
Policymakers must address economic and political issues to strengthen globalization.
Leave Zombies Be
Paul Krugman (F&D) Dec 1, 2016
The stalled march toward trade liberalization is no cause for alarm.
Trump, Brexit--The West in Crisis
Ed Miliband (Democracy) Dec 1, 2016
Unless the left can speak more directly to citizens on economics, politics, and nationhood, we're in for a long slog.
What Next for Liberalism?
Daniel T. Rodgers (Democracy) Dec 1, 2016
One pressing question: How to make the angry people more angry at capital and less angry at government.
China’s problems with easy money go back centuries
James Kynge (FT) Dec 2, 2016
Today, debts are piling up as quickly as the country generates cash to service them.
Renminbi weakness adds to China capital outflows
James Kynge (FT) Dec 2, 2016
Dollar strength and Fed rate rise concerns make other emerging markets vulnerable.
A complex global financial system
Adrian Blundell-Wignal (OECD Insights) Dec 2, 2016
Global finance is the perfect example of a complex system, consisting as it does of a highly interconnected system of sub-systems featuring tipping points, emergence, asymmetries, unintended consequences, a “parts-within-parts” structure (to quote Herbert Simon), and all the other defining characteristics of complexity.
How close is the world to ending extreme poverty?
John McArthur and Krista Rasmussen (Brookings) Dec 2, 2016
A core ambition of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end extreme poverty in all forms by 2030. John McArthur and Krista Rasmussen consider this crucial challenge and the prospects to meet this goal using country-level trajectories for six key SDG targets.
Emerging Market Winners and Losers After Trump
A Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Dec 2, 2016
Not all emerging markets are equally vulnerable to the new economic reality.
A Better Way to Help U.S. Victims of Free Trade
Ronald J Daniels and Michael Trebilcock (Bloomberg View) Dec 2, 2016
There's no way to stop globalization or technological progress. Washington should instead focus on helping industrial workers to adapt.
In Brazil, State Debt Is a Ticking Time Bomb
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Dec 2, 2016
Most of the country’s state governments have fiscal problems, and a federal fix might not help.
Globalizing the Fight Against Non-Communicable Disease
George Weisz (Project Syndicate) Dec 2, 2016
Global health organizations and initiatives have traditionally focused on infectious diseases, from malaria (their great failure) to smallpox (their greatest success). But there is an urgent need to tackle less compelling but equally deadly non-communicable diseases, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
A Better Global Framework to End AIDS
Isabella Lövin and Michel Sidibé (Project Syndicate) Dec 2, 2016
Simply funding parts of the global health system is not enough to end AIDS once and for all. The international community must take a more holistic view and reinforce a global-response architecture that features a clear division of labor and seamless cooperation among highly disparate actors.
Donors don’t like budget aid – they should!
Axel Dreher, Sarah Langlotz and Silvia Marchesi (VoxEU) Dec 2, 2016
Despite its many benefits, donor governments show little enthusiasm for budget aid, instead preferring to give project aid over which they have greater control. This column argues that budget aid is better than project-specific aid because it attributes full responsibility of expenditure to the recipient government, allowing voters to respond at the ballot boxes to how well the aid is used. Despite its many benefits, donor governments show little enthusiasm for budget aid, instead preferring to give project aid over which they have greater control. This column argues that budget aid is better than project-specific aid because it attributes full responsibility of expenditure to the recipient government, allowing voters to respond at the ballot boxes to how well the aid is used.
What we learn from a sovereign debt restructuring in France in 1721
François R. Velde (FRB Chicago Econ Perspectives) Dec 2, 2016
Knowing what happens, or can happen, in the case of a sovereign default is important. Past examples of defaults or debt restructurings can yield important insights into what is technically and politically feasible for a government, and what kinds of motivations lie behind the decisions that are made.
India’s currency reform was botched in execution
Economist Dec 3, 2016
Narendra Modi needs to take measures to mitigate the damage his rupee reform has done.
The interest rate effect on private saving
Joshua Aizenman, Yin-Wong Cheung and Hiro Ito (VoxEU) Dec 3, 2016
Conventional logic suggests that lowering the policy interest rate will stimulate consumption and investment while discouraging people from saving, but low interest rates may also prompt people to increase their saving to compensate for the low rate of return. Using data on 135 countries from 1995 to 2014, this column shows that a low-interest rate environment can yield different effects on private saving across country groups under different economic environments. A well-developed financial market, an ageing population, and output volatility can all contribute towards turning the relationship between interest rates and saving negative. Conventional logic suggests that lowering the policy interest rate will stimulate consumption and investment while discouraging people from saving, but low interest rates may also prompt people to increase their saving to compensate for the low rate of return. Using data on 135 countries from 1995 to 2014, this column shows that a low-interest rate environment can yield different effects on private saving across country groups under different economic environments. A well-developed financial market, an ageing population, and output volatility can all contribute towards turning the relationship between interest rates and saving negative.
Nigeria urgently needs help to avert a famine
FT View Dec 4, 2016
Returning the ill-gotten gains of corrupt officials would be a start.
Trump’s tax plans favour the rich and will hamper economic growth
Lawrence Summers (FT) Dec 4, 2016
The proposals would threaten to increase federal debt and interest rates.
US corporate bonds: The weight of debt
Michael Mackenzie and Eric Platt (FT) Dec 4, 2016
Expansion plans are in question after a focus on dividends and share buybacks.
Can the internet revolutionise finance in China?
Yiping Huang, Yan Shen, Jingyi Wang and Feng Guo (EAF) Dec 4, 2016
Should we be worried about the explosive growth of internet finance in China?
Effect of openness on domestic employment volatility
Yoshio Higuchi, Kozo Kiyota and Toshiyuki Matsuura (VoxEU) Dec 4, 2016
There is a belief among the general public that employment volatility tends to be greater for firms with higher foreign exposure, but the relationship between the two is ambiguous in theory. This column uses firm-level data for Japan to compare the impact of foreign exposure on employment volatility for multinational, trading, and non-trading firms; for manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade; and for intra-firm and inter-firm trade. In manufacturing, the effect of exports on the volatility of employment varies, depending on the share of intrafirm exports to total sales. In wholesale retail, the effect of exports is generally insignificant. There is a belief among the general public that employment volatility tends to be greater for firms with higher foreign exposure, but the relationship between the two is ambiguous in theory. This column uses firm-level data for Japan to compare the impact of foreign exposure on employment volatility for multinational, trading, and non-trading firms; for manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade; and for intra-firm and inter-firm trade. In manufacturing, the effect of exports on the volatility of employment varies, depending on the share of intrafirm exports to total sales. In wholesale retail, the effect of exports is generally insignificant.
The casualties of Italy’s referendum result
Tony Barber (FT) Dec 5, 2016
Renzi may be on way out, but biggest danger could be to banks.
Italy’s young people vote against vested interests
Francesco Giavazzi (FT) Dec 5, 2016
The country leaves itself vulnerable to a crisis to implement change.
Italy Just Handed the Global Economy Another Giant Variable
Peter s. Goodman (NYT) Dec 5, 2016
As the country's voters emphatically rejected reforms in a referendum Sunday, they added to grave international uncertainties and prompted the prime minister to resign.
The Central Banks Alone Can’t Save Us
Mohamed A. El-Erian (NYT) Dec 5, 2016
The longer we rely on monetary policy to keep the global economy afloat, the more precarious our future becomes.
The clock is ticking on a global shift to the far-right
Catherine Rampell (WP) Dec 5, 2016
A new study draws a recurring timeline between financial crises and the rise of populism.
It's Time for a Reset
Lawrence H. Summers (NYT) Dec 5, 2016
World leaders confront rising anti-globalization sentiment.
The Impossible Italian Job?
WSJ Dec 5, 2016
Voters want real economic change, not procedural fudges.
The System Didn’t Work
Bret Stephens (WSJ) Dec 5, 2016
From Italy to the U.K. to Ohio, the populist complaint is about justice, not economics.
TPP Can Be Fixed If You Know What’s Wrong with It
Jeffrey J. Schott (PIIE) Dec 5, 2016
President-elect Donald Trump confirmed on November 21, 2016 that he would withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on day one of his administration.
Will China Shrink in 2018. Ten Years Ahead of Schedule?
Gordon G. Chang (WA) Dec 5, 2016
Chinese demographers have projected China’s population growth to peak in 2018—a full decade earlier than the UN’s estimate. Whatever the more accurate prediction, the prospects are troubling.
The U.S. Is a Low-Tax Nation
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Dec 5, 2016
New data disagrees with the president-elect's assessment.
Don't Confuse Italy With Brexit or Trump
Therese Raphael (Bloomberg View) Dec 5, 2016
Italians threw out a leader but voted to keep their system intact.
Why China Can't Stop Capital Outflows
Christopher Balding (Bloomberg View) Dec 5, 2016
The government is propping up the yuan to forestall worse problems. But it can't do so forever.
What Trump Didn't Learn From the Financial Crisis
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 5, 2016
Rolling back the regulations designed to prevent the next banking disaster would be a mistake.
The Win-Win Fantasy of Liberal Democracy
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Dec 5, 2016
Few analysts expected Britons to vote to leave the EU, or that Americans would choose Donald Trump as their next president, yet it did not take long for a consensus explanation of those miscalculations to emerge. When it comes to such complex and consequential developments, however, we should beware of facile reasoning.
China’s Civilizational Diplomacy
Zaynab El Bernoussi (Project Syndicate) Dec 5, 2016
China’s leadership on the world stage differs notably from the West’s, because it relies on addressing prospective partners on a more equal footing. In particular, China's emphasis on highlighting historical and cultural similarities helps to explain how it has expanded its sphere of influence so widely in recent years.
Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?
Michael D. Bauer and Glenn D. Rudebusch (FRBSF Econ Letter) Dec 5, 2016
Despite recent increases, long-term interest rates remain close to their historical lows. A variety of structural factors, notably slower productivity growth and a surplus of global saving, likely have lowered expectations of steady-state interest rates and pushed down long-term yields through the expectations component. In addition, accommodative monetary policy in the United States and abroad appears to have lowered the term premium on long-term bonds.
How Democracies Fall Apart
Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz (FA) Dec 5, 2016
Why populism is a pathway to autocracy.
Japan shows the world how to strike trade deals
FT View Dec 6, 2016
The agreement with the EU displays Asia’s enthusiasm for such pacts.
More perils lie in wait for the eurozone
Martin Wolf (FT) Dec 6, 2016
Divergence in the performance of members of the single currency is a real challenge.
The Lessons From Argentina
Michael Hasenstab (NYT) Dec 6, 2016
As the United States appears poised to look inward for growth, Argentina’s rebound from its damaging populist policies can be a model.
Social wealth funds: a key ingredient of a new pro-equality economic model
Stewart Lansley (OECD Insights) Dec 6, 2016
An especially powerful weapon for building more inclusive economies would be the creation of commonly-owned social wealth funds.
Why Renzi Really Failed
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Dec 6, 2016
Italy keeps investing itself in false hopes. No one person can provide magic fixes.
Italy shows why bank rescues will always be political
Brian Caplen (Banker) Dec 6, 2016
Italy's political crisis looks set to trigger banking turmoil in the country. Brian Caplen looks at the wider implications when it comes to rescuing banks.
Elites Must Either Engage Populists or Lose to Them
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Dec 6, 2016
It's not all about economic inequality. Other rifts are harder to heal.
Why Monorails Are the Future (Really This Time)
Adam Minter (Bloomberg View) Dec 6, 2016
In the developing world, an old technology suddenly makes a lot of sense.
Give Greece Credit, Even Just for Treading Water
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Dec 6, 2016
Now it needs to be rewarded for its efforts.
OPEC's Agreement Is a Step Toward Stabilizing Oil Markets
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Dec 6, 2016
The historic pact is part of a gradual, bumpy adaptation to a new energy order.
Can Trump Save the Euro?
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Dec 6, 2016
Italy has just delivered a stinging rebuke to its government, and opened the way for populist forces who have pledged a referendum on the country's eurozone membership. If the eurozone’s breakdown is to be avoided, it urgently needs an economic boost – one that US President-elect Donald Trump may just deliver.
India’s Demonetization Disaster
Shashi Tharoor (Project Syndicate) Dec 6, 2016
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's November 8 announcement that 86% of the country's currency would be removed from circulation at the stroke of midnight has plunged the economy into chaos. And the worst part is that it may all be for nothing.
What Italy's Referendum Means for Europe
K@W Dec 6, 2016
In the wake of rising right-wing populism in Europe, Italians voted against big government and reforms. The fallout could ripple across the continent.
Banking regulatory reform: The way forward
Xavier Vives (VoxEU) Dec 6, 2016
As with previous systemic crises, the 2007-2009 crisis has created regulatory reform, but is it adequate? This column argues that prudential regulation should consider interactions between conduct – capital, liquidity, disclosure requirements, macroprudential ratios – and structural instruments, and also coordinate with competition policy. Though recent reforms are a welcome response to the latest crisis, we do not know how effective they will be in future. As with previous systemic crises, the 2007-2009 crisis has created regulatory reform, but is it adequate? This column argues that prudential regulation should consider interactions between conduct – capital, liquidity, disclosure requirements, macroprudential ratios – and structural instruments, and also coordinate with competition policy. Though recent reforms are a welcome response to the latest crisis, we do not know how effective they will be in future.
If you really want to go – Germany and Brexit
Beatrice Weder di Mauro (VoxEU) Dec 6, 2016
A recent Vox eBook examined the the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the eBook, focuses on Germany and argues that as the country's prosperity is inseparable from the success of Europe and the Eurozone, Germany's priority has to be to preserve both and to avoid corrosive, possibly divisive or even destructive compromises with a country that wants to leave. A recent Vox eBook examined the the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the eBook, focuses on Germany and argues that as the country's prosperity is inseparable from the success of Europe and the Eurozone, Germany's priority has to be to preserve both and to avoid corrosive, possibly divisive or even destructive compromises with a country that wants to leave.
It’s the Globalization, Stupid
Roberto Stefan Foa (FP) Dec 6, 2016
Don’t blame low working-class wages or the financial crisis for the populist wave that produced Trump and Brexit. The data show the tide started decades ago.
Investing in a Trump world of uncertainty
David Stevenson (FT) Dec 7, 2016
The energy sector looks a good bet, but what will happen with China?
Emerging market banks in worse health than during financial crisis
Steve Johnson (FT) Dec 7, 2016
A third at risk of credit rating downgrade at end of Q3.
The pros and cons of a renminbi devaluation
Jennifer Hughes and Roger Blitz (FT) Dec 7, 2016
Depreciating the currency should have benefits, but it will cause pain for owners of dollar debt.
Capital controls undermine China’s reform plans
Tom Mitchell (FT) Dec 7, 2016
The prospect of a US rate rise has spurred Beijing into action.
Tax evasion: Tightening the noose
Vanessa Houlder (FT) Dec 7, 2016
Questions over whether new rules to flush out evaders and squeeze havens will work.
What’s really to blame for the productivity slowdown
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Dec 7, 2016
The health-care, education and housing sectors have gotten bigger, without getting more productive, a new report contends.
Importers are Exporters: Tariffs Would Hurt Our Most Competitive Firms
J. Bradford Jensen (PIIE) Dec 7, 2016
The incoming Trump administration is looking for ways to punish firms that outsource jobs overseas and appears to be considering increasing tariffs on imported goods.
End Game for the Global Economy
James G. Rickards (Mises Daily) Dec 7, 2016
Central banks never recovered and "normalized" their balance sheets after the 2008 crisis. That means the current system is very fragile.
François Fillon and the EU
Paul Goldschmidt (Globalist) Dec 7, 2016
The potential future French President’s views on the EU, while still emerging, are a matter of global interest.
Europe's Still Dithering Over Greece
Bloomberg View Dec 7, 2016
It’s in Europe’s interests to deal with Greece’s debts once and for all.
Mexico and China Are Very Different Trading Partners
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Dec 7, 2016
One has a healthy relationship with the U.S. The other is more disruptive.
The Future of Migration Governance
Md. Shahidul Haque (Project Syndicate) Dec 7, 2016
We live in a hyper-connected world, where goods, capital, and people are more mobile than ever before. But, whereas countries have shown a willingness to cooperate on exchanging goods and capital, the international community has shown little appetite for improving how it governs human mobility – and the costs of inaction are mounting.
The New Xenophobia
Ngaire Woods (Project Syndicate) Dec 7, 2016
Democratic governments in the West are increasingly losing their bearings. From the shift toward illiberalism in Poland and Hungary to the Brexit vote in the UK and Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, a particularly toxic strain of populism is infecting societies – and it is spreading.
The Trump Boom?
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Dec 7, 2016
Exactly how much US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will raise output and inflation will depend on how close the US economy is to full capacity. If the economy really does have massive quantities of underutilized and unemployed resources, the effect of Trumponomics on growth could be considerable.
How Spain should negotiate Brexit: Preserving a tangled web
Luis Garicano (VoxEU) Dec 7, 2016
A recent Vox eBook examined the the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the eBook, examines Spain's negotiating position, including the possible stumbling block of Gibraltar. A recent Vox eBook examined the the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the eBook, examines Spain's negotiating position, including the possible stumbling block of Gibraltar.
The Bank of Japan at the policy frontier
Stephen Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz (VoxEU) Dec 7, 2016
The Bank of Japan has recently implemented one of the largest central bank policy shifts in modern times, raising its inflation target explicitly to 2% and kicking off the most rapid balance sheet expansion among the leading central banks. This column assesses this policy decision and its potential pitfalls, and compares it to similar policies enacted in the past. Unless policy has a significantly larger impact on financial conditions going forward than it has to date, the revised framework will likely be insufficient to achieve the Bank’s inflation target any time soon. The Bank of Japan has recently implemented one of the largest central bank policy shifts in modern times, raising its inflation target explicitly to 2% and kicking off the most rapid balance sheet expansion among the leading central banks. This column assesses this policy decision and its potential pitfalls, and compares it to similar policies enacted in the past. Unless policy has a significantly larger impact on financial conditions going forward than it has to date, the revised framework will likely be insufficient to achieve the Bank’s inflation target any time soon.
Rising income inequality: do not draw the obvious conclusions
Heiko Peters and Maya Volwahsen (DB Research) Dec 7, 2016
Inequality is dominating the political debate in various countries still characterised by sluggish economic recovery and high unemployment even several years after the financial crisis. In this note we look at trends, drivers and solutions. Four points stand out from the trends. First, global income inequality has increased over the last three decades. Second, the integration of the EM into the global economy has allowed aggregate income levels to converge towards AE levels, lifting millions out of poverty. Third, the AE have been better able to control income inequality via redistribution. Fourth, aggregates can be deceptive. Rising income inequality is associated with globalisation, technological change and migration. At the same time they have had an undeniably positive impact on aggregate income. The policy dilemma is in resolving the tension between the increase in income and its unfair distribution.
Mario Draghi walks an ever finer line on bond buying
FT View Dec 8, 2016
This is not the right time to scale back ECB support for the economy.
EM currencies show signs of withdrawing from Trumpflation trade
Roger Blitz (FT) Dec 8, 2016
Mexican peso has steadied and JPMorgan’s EM currencies index has turned upwards.
Nigeria must put its foreign exchange folly behind it
Kingsley Moghalu (FT) Dec 8, 2016
A short-term approach to economic policy is exacerbating poverty.
Xi Jinping, Davos and the world in 2017
Philip Stephens (FT) Dec 8, 2016
There is a tidiness that disappears when rules are replaced by competing powers.
Malmström: EU-Japan Trade Talks Near End Stage, Though Obstacles Remain
Bridges, Volume 20, Number 42 Dec 8, 2016
EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström affirmed this week that the 28-member bloc is "very close" to finalising talks for a bilateral free trade agreement with Japan, following nearly four years of negotiations to date.
Don't Be Fooled by the Name, the US Export-Import Bank Is about Exports and Jobs
Caroline Freund (PIIE) Dec 8, 2016
There is a lot for President-elect Donald Trump to like about the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM). It promotes US exports, supports good jobs in the country, and doesn't cost taxpayers anything—in fact it returns money to the Treasury.
How the US and UK Can Help Ordinary Zimbabweans Without Helping their Government
Todd Moss (CGD) Dec 8, 2016
How can countries with a strong history and connection to that beleaguered country help its people while not entrenching its kleptocratic leadership? Between the “lend and hope” strategy and the “isolate and wait” approach, what could the international community do to prevent unnecessary suffering without aiding the oppressors? Here’s an agenda.
Carrier “International” Gets Trumped: Global Ramifications
Jean-Francois Boittin (Globalist) Dec 8, 2016
Is Trump’s special deal for the Carrier plant in Indiana the beginning of the unraveling of the U.S.-led wave of globalization?
A Better Theory to Explain Financial Bubbles
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 8, 2016
The past is no guarantee of future performance. But investors act as if it is.
Why Putin Scores Big With the Rosneft Deal
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Dec 8, 2016
The privatization had both a political and economic purpose. It would not have been possible without Putin's help.
Italy on the Brink
Philippe Legrain (Project Syndicate) Dec 8, 2016
Following Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's resignation, Italy’s ongoing banking crisis could flare up again and threaten European stability. In the long term, the eurozone's third-largest economy may have to withdraw from the single currency, which would put the monetary union itself at risk.
A New Deal for Refugees
Saadia Madsbjerg (Project Syndicate) Dec 8, 2016
Though international law protects refugees’ human rights, there is no system for providing the economic support they need to thrive in their new countries. A system that recognizes refugees’ special economic status, in addition to their special legal status, would facilitate the delivery of critical aid.
Don’t Cry Over Dead Trade Agreements
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Dec 8, 2016
While developing countries may continue to pursue smaller trade agreements, the two major deals on the table, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, are as good as dead after the election of Donald Trump as US president. We should not mourn their passing.
OPEC Cobbles a Deal, But Cannot Hide Decline of Saudi Power
Chris Miller (YaleGlobal) Dec 8, 2016
OPEC and Russia agree to limit production, but deal may not hold – Saudi influence fades as oil cartel loses dominance
Make globalisation more inclusive or suffer the consequences
Danny Leipziger (VoxEU) Dec 8, 2016
Despite lifting millions out of poverty, globalisation is facing growing political opposition. This column surveys the successes and failures of globalisation, and some of the critical policy implications. Globalisation has reached a stage where its benefits have been captured but its costs have been largely ignored. Going forward, governments need to address inequality and social inclusion, boost global investment, and restore confidence. Despite lifting millions out of poverty, globalisation is facing growing political opposition. This column surveys the successes and failures of globalisation, and some of the critical policy implications. Globalisation has reached a stage where its benefits have been captured but its costs have been largely ignored. Going forward, governments need to address inequality and social inclusion, boost global investment, and restore confidence.
Macropru's fatal flaw
Jon Danielsson and Robert Macrae (VoxEU) Dec 8, 2016
Political risk is a major cause of systemic financial risk. This column argues that both the integrity and the legitimacy of macroprudential policy, or ‘macropru’, depends on political risk being included with other risk factors. Yet it is usually excluded from macropru, and that could be a fatal flaw. Political risk is a major cause of systemic financial risk. This column argues that both the integrity and the legitimacy of macroprudential policy, or ‘macropru’, depends on political risk being included with other risk factors. Yet it is usually excluded from macropru, and that could be a fatal flaw.
The Culture of Capitalism
Peer Vries (FA) Dec 8, 2016
Explaining modern growth.
With Election Defeat, Ghana’s President Becomes Casualty of Faltering Economy
Sean Lyngaas (NYT) Dec 9, 2016
President John Mahama was beaten by Nana Akufo-Addo, a lawyer and former foreign minister who rode a wave of discontent over the country’s plummeting growth rate.
Can Vietnam Still Benefit From a Dead TPP?
Nghia Trong Pham (Diplomat) Dec 9, 2016
Trump may have killed the TPP, but Vietnam can still reap some of the benefits at home.
Mercosur Turns Its Back on a Diminished Venezuela
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Dec 9, 2016
The country’s ouster from a regional trade bloc reveals Latin America’s shifting balance of power.
The Geopolitics of Populism
Danny Quah and Kishore Mahbubani (Project Syndicate) Dec 9, 2016
What unites supporters of Donald Trump and the UK's "Leave" campaign is not anger at being excluded from the benefits of globalization, but rather a shared sense of unease that they no longer control their own destinies. The transatlantic axis that used to run the world can see its power slipping away.
The Complexity of Inequality
Michael Heise (Project Syndicate) Dec 9, 2016
In recent years, inequality has been at the forefront of public debate in most advanced economies, blamed for everything from low growth and stagnating productivity to the rise of populism and the Brexit vote. But inequality remains poorly defined, its effects highly variable, and its causes hotly debated.
Trump and the End of the West?
Project Syndicate Dec 9, 2016
If America’s president-elect delivers on his promises, the long-term costs – both domestic and international – are likely to outweigh any short-term gains. If he fails to deliver, the long-term costs will fall due much sooner.
Prudential policies crossing borders
Claudia Buch, Matthieu Bussière and Linda Goldberg (VoxEU) Dec 9, 2016
The Global Crisis has triggered substantive policy responses, but assessing the impacts of these and the effects on the real economy is a challenging task. This column discusses the work of the International Banking Research Network in examining international spillovers of prudential instruments through credit provision by banks. It finds that prudential instruments sometimes spill over across borders through bank lending, and that international spillovers vary across prudential instruments and are heterogeneous across banks. There appears to be no one channel or even direction of transmission that dominates spillovers. The Global Crisis has triggered substantive policy responses, but assessing the impacts of these and the effects on the real economy is a challenging task. This column discusses the work of the International Banking Research Network in examining international spillovers of prudential instruments through credit provision by banks. It finds that prudential instruments sometimes spill over across borders through bank lending, and that international spillovers vary across prudential instruments and are heterogeneous across banks. There appears to be no one channel or even direction of transmission that dominates spillovers.
The oil industry is bouncing back after OPEC’s meetin
Economist Dec 10, 2016
But it has many lessons to learn from Silicon Valley, other industries.
Invest in Tunisia with a Free Trade Agreement
Scott Mastic (WA) Dec 10, 2016
The Tunisian government is working hard to combat the threat of terrorism, and the United States should support the moderate Arab state by setting up a free trade agreement.
The History of Tough Talk on China
Howard W. French (WSJ) Dec 10, 2016
If Trump wants to get a sense of America’s troubles with the Middle Kingdom, there are few better places to start than John Pomfret’s ‘The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom.’
The Belgian government's Brexit negotiating strategy
Paul De Grauwe (VoxEU) Dec 10, 2016
A recent Vox eBook examined the the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the ebook, asks which negotiating strategy the Belgian government should take in the process of achieving new trade relations with the UK, and also which strategy the Belgian government is likely to take. A recent Vox eBook examined the the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the ebook, asks which negotiating strategy the Belgian government should take in the process of achieving new trade relations with the UK, and also which strategy the Belgian government is likely to take.
Immigration and the macroeconomy
Francesco Furlanetto and Ørjan Robstad (VoxEU) Dec 10, 2016
The macroeconomic effects of immigration are a hot topic, particularly during elections. Using immigration records from Norway, this column argues that an increase in immigration lowers unemployment (even for native workers) and has no negative effects on public finances. However, it identifies a negative effect on productivity that may be a worry for long-term growth. The macroeconomic effects of immigration are a hot topic, particularly during elections. Using immigration records from Norway, this column argues that an increase in immigration lowers unemployment (even for native workers) and has no negative effects on public finances. However, it identifies a negative effect on productivity that may be a worry for long-term growth.
Shifting aid to support business is the right decision
Paul Collier (FT) Dec 11, 2016
Micro-enterprises are no substitute for proper firms.
Italy poses a huge threat to the euro and union
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Dec 11, 2016
One day the country will be led by a party in favour of withdrawal from the currency.
China: Renminbi stalls on road to being a global currency
Gabriel Wildau and Tom Mitchell (FT) Dec 11, 2016
New capital controls lead to doubt, especially over hopes of forcing economic reform
Rethinking the Future of Asia: Moving Beyond U.S. Dominance
Samir Saran and Ashok Malik (Globalist) Dec 11, 2016
Asia needs to discover a bridge between multipolarity and multilateralism. India could play an important role as a "bridge power."
China: The vanguard of globalisation
Richard Javad Heydarian (Aljazeera) Dec 11, 2016
As isolationism is sweeping through the West, China is to become the unlikely champion of globalisation.
The Human Side of Trade
Russ Roberts (Medium) Dec 11, 2016
Free trade is on the run.
Preserving the special Anglo-Irish relationship
FT View Dec 12, 2016
A new bilateral agreement could avoid a return to a hard border.
China eyes new trade war over ‘market economy’ status
Shawn Donnan (FT) Dec 12, 2016
Trump seizes on tensions caused by flood of cheap Chinese steel on world markets.
Italy’s future growth hinges on new ways of doing business
Mariana Mazzucato (FT) Dec 12, 2016
The subsidy mentality has created a parasitic public-private ecosystem.
Bending the Arc of History
Matthew Rees (WSJ) Dec 12, 2016
At the start of the 20th century, average life expectancy globally was just 31 years. Today it is 71. Will this progress continue? Matthew Rees reviews two books about the future of progress and innovation.
U.S. Companies Were Hurt by Trade With China Too
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 12, 2016
American manufacturing workers weren't alone in taking a beating from low-cost overseas competition.
Romania's War on Corruption Got Old
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Dec 12, 2016
A party tainted by scandals returns to power on generous economic promises.
Why China Can't Lure Tech Talent
Adam Minter (Bloomberg View) Dec 12, 2016
Technology thrives on openness. Both Trump and China are learning the hard way.
Achieving Universal Health Coverage in Africa
Matshidiso Moeti (Project Syndicate) Dec 12, 2016
The cost of weak health systems that are incapable of providing all people with the preventive services and treatments they need is steep. While building strong health systems is not easy, it is possible – and, indeed, necessary – if we are to create healthy, productive, and resilient families, communities, and economies.
China’s push for status as a market economy
FT View Dec 13, 2016
The EU and US should be prepared to honour a longstanding deal.
Too big, too Leninist – a China crisis is a matter of time
Martin Wolf (FT) Dec 13, 2016
Corruption is too deeply rooted in the party system for Xi’s reforms to work.
Strong China data bolster talk of Fed tightening
Gabriel Wildau (FT) Dec 13, 2016
Health of industrial economy fuels expectations of new policy focus on tackling debt.
If the Trump Administration Abandons Climate, Will China Take Global Leadership?
Jonah Busch (CGD) Dec 13, 2016
President Elect Donald Trump committed his first major personnel act on climate Wednesday, picking Scott Pruitt—Oklahoma Attorney General, climate change denier, and oil industry ally—to head the Environmental Protection Agency. If Pruitt is confirmed to the position, he will be responsible for looking out for not just for narrow oil interests, but all Americans. Maybe he’ll be persuaded to take a more forward-looking stance on climate by the Americans already suffering from sea level rise in Alaska, Florida, and Louisiana. But if that doesn’t concern him, perhaps the United States losing international goodwill and influence to an ascendant China will.
China's secret iPhone weapon
Brian Caplen (Banker) Dec 13, 2016
A China-US trade war carries very high risks.
A Post-Brexit Europe Will Be Less Charitable
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Dec 13, 2016
Germany is leading a European crackdown on "benefit tourism."
Pinpointing the Bubble in China's Real-Estate Market
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 13, 2016
The big risk comes from developers who took on too much debt, not homebuyers.
Protectionism Isn't Patriotic
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) Dec 13, 2016
Indian companies need to compete, not look for special favors.
Confronting the Next Global Health Challenge
Jörg Reinhardt (Project Syndicate) Dec 13, 2016
While mortality rates from infectious diseases are falling, developed countries’ sedentary lifestyles, tobacco use, and poor diets are catching on in the developing world, and chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart disease, and cancer are increasing at an alarming rate. This is the world's next global health challenge.
Toward a Rust Belt Powerhouse
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Dec 13, 2016
Instead of hurling unfounded accusations at China on Twitter, US President-elect Donald Trump should be developing a genuine pro-growth strategy for America. Such a strategy could follow the British “northern powerhouse” model, focused on revitalizing the economies of the former manufacturing heartland.
Misallocating capital and labour across firms in the Eurozone
Elisa Gamberoni, Claire Giordano and Paloma Lopez-Garcia (VoxEU) Dec 13, 2016
An efficient allocation of inputs across firms is a necessary condition to boost TFP growth. This column presents evidence that in large Eurozone economies, capital misallocation trended upwards in the period 2002-2012 while labour misallocation dynamics were flatter. Uncertainty and credit market frictions were strongly associated with the observed developments in capital misallocation, whereas the overall deregulation in the product and labour markets contributed to dampening input misallocation dynamics.
Should the United States Recognize China as a Market Economy?
Chad P. Bown (PIIE) Dec 13, 2016
China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 came after lengthy negotiations. More than 160 WTO member countries granted nondiscriminatory tariff treatment to China’s exporters. For its part, China agreed to carry out numerous steps to open itself to global trade and investment...
South Korea, Germany at risk from China tech rise
James Kynge (FT) Dec 14, 2016
Beijing’s industrial strategy aims to replace sales by overseas companies.
Saving Europe From Itself—Again
Mark Helprin (WSJ) Dec 14, 2016
A Russian aggressor could drive through NATO’s weak center or bite off its edges piece by piece.
As 2017 Approaches, EU Prepares for Busy Year on Trade and Investment Agenda
Bridges, Volume 20, Number 43 Dec 14, 2016
The coming year is expected to be a pivotal one for the 28-nation EU bloc, as it embarks on the next chapter of the “Brexit” process and sees elections in various large member states, while also working to advance its foreign trade and investment agenda on multiple fronts.
More Lessons from Brazil’s Boom-Bust: The “Populist Paradigm” Revisited
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Dec 14, 2016
The current discussion over the rise of “economic populism” in advanced economies could benefit from a look at a Latin American classic, The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America , edited by Rudiger Dornbusch and Sebastian Edwards.
Post-Brexit Britain Faces a Pay Squeeze
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Dec 14, 2016
Those Britons who are barely getting by will struggle even more in 2017.
The Promise of Digital Finance
Laura Tyson and Susan Lund (Project Syndicate) Dec 14, 2016
Financial inclusion is vital to inclusive economic growth and gender equality, and it has assumed a prominent role in global development efforts. With billions of people in emerging economies already using mobile phones, the means to introduce them to formal banking and financial services already exist.
Trump Must Prepare for Showdown with China
Peter Morici (Globalist) Dec 14, 2016
An increasingly assertive China poses the most vexing and far reaching challenges for American prosperity and security.
The Age of Hyper-Uncertainty
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Dec 14, 2016
The year 2017 will mark the 40th anniversary of the publication of John Kenneth Galbraith’s The Age of Uncertainty. But if Galbraith were writing the same book in 2017, he probably would call the 1970s the Age of Assurance.
Better microfinance through agent-intermediated lending
Pushkar Maitra, Sandip Mitra, Dilip Mookherjee, Alberto Motta and Sujata Visaria (VoxEU) Dec 14, 2016
Lack of access to credit in developing countries traps farmers in poverty. At the same time, there is a lack of evidence that microfinance raises the incomes of the poor while maintaining high repayment rates. Using a field experiment in West Bengal, this column argues that incentivising local intermediaries to select loan recipients improves both average income growth and crop yields compared to traditional microfinance. There is no evidence that this strategy lowers equity, although some disadvantaged groups performed better in the existing system. Lack of access to credit in developing countries traps farmers in poverty. At the same time, there is a lack of evidence that microfinance raises the incomes of the poor while maintaining high repayment rates. Using a field experiment in West Bengal, this column argues that incentivising local intermediaries to select loan recipients improves both average income growth and crop yields compared to traditional microfinance. There is no evidence that this strategy lowers equity, although some disadvantaged groups performed better in the existing system.
Forecasters use their expertise to help us shape our daily lives
John Llewellyn (FT) Dec 15, 2016
Professional analysis gives us the tools to make some of our own decisions.
Why the World Bank Can Now Afford to Say No to the United States
Scott Morris (CGD) Dec 15, 2016
The 18th "replenishment" of the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) opened the door to a major source of non-donor financing in the years ahead, which will mean—to put it bluntly—that the World Bank can now literally afford to say no to the United States and other major donors like the United Kingdom and Japan on a range of policy matters.
OPEC's Output Cut
K@W Dec 15, 2016
Will it boost U.S. producers?
From the American Challenge to the Chinese Challenge?
Jean-Pierre Lehmann (Globalist) Dec 15, 2016
The unfolding Western effort to paint a picture of a benign America and a malign China is a distortion of the historical truth.
ECB Learns Fed Lesson on Reducing Monetary Dose
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Dec 15, 2016
It's too early to reduce quantitative easing in the euro zone, no matter how gently the stimulus is withdrawn.
Skilling Up Latin America
Pablo Sanguinetti (Project Syndicate) Dec 15, 2016
If Latin America is to move onto a path toward sustained and inclusive economic growth, it will need to address its lack of high-quality human capital. Addressing that challenge will require an integrated approach that reinforces the roles of family, education, and the physical and social environment.
Righting China’s Property Rights
Shang-Jin Wei Project Syndicate) Dec 15, 2016
Last month, China’s government released new guidelines to strengthen protection of land and intellectual-property rights – guidelines that are almost certain to become laws in due course. But while the new guidelines are an important step in the right direction, much more must be done to encourage local innovation.
Head for the Bunkers?
Carl Bildt (Project Syndicate) Dec 15, 2016
After years of turmoil and uncertainty, we should assume that more surprising “black swan” events are around the corner, especially now that Donald Trump is moving into the White House. From Donbas to North Korea to the Gulf region, there is no shortage of places where developments could take a shocking turn.
Why macropru can end up being procyclical
Jon Danielsson, Robert Macrae, Dimitri Tsomocos and Jean-Pierre Zigrand (VoxEU) Dec 15, 2016
Discretionary macroprudential policies aim to be countercyclical by adjusting risk-taking across the financial cycle. This column argues that the opposite effect may happen in certain cases. Depending on how regulators measure risk and how they react, the eventual outcome may well be procyclical, with serious unintended consequences. Discretionary macroprudential policies aim to be countercyclical by adjusting risk-taking across the financial cycle. This column argues that the opposite effect may happen in certain cases. Depending on how regulators measure risk and how they react, the eventual outcome may well be procyclical, with serious unintended consequences.
The shifting natural wealth of nations
Rabah Arezki, Rick van der Ploeg and Frederik Toscani (VoxEU) Dec 15, 2016
Global natural wealth has shifted from North to South over the past decades, with discoveries of major oil and gas fields and mineral deposits first in Latin America and more recently in Sub-Saharan Africa. This column argues that a more outward market orientation on the part of developing countries has been the key driving force behind this shift – over and above other forces such as the increase in emerging markets’ demand and/or developed countries running out of natural resources. Global natural wealth has shifted from North to South over the past decades, with discoveries of major oil and gas fields and mineral deposits first in Latin America and more recently in Sub-Saharan Africa. This column argues that a more outward market orientation on the part of developing countries has been the key driving force behind this shift – over and above other forces such as the increase in emerging markets’ demand and/or developed countries running out of natural resources.
Preparing for Brentry – after Brexit: A view from Sweden
Fredrik Andersson and Lars Jonung (VoxEU) Dec 15, 2016
A recent Vox eBook examined the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the ebook, argues that Sweden should work for a happy divorce that lays the foundation for a remarriage, or 'Brentry'. As part of this, the authors advocate a temporary escape clause concerning the free movement of labour, which any member state can invoke when and only when they can prove that EU migration is directly harming a significant part of domestic society. A recent Vox eBook examined the potential issues facing various EU members when it comes to negotiating with the UK over Brexit. This column, taken from the ebook, argues that Sweden should work for a happy divorce that lays the foundation for a remarriage, or 'Brentry'. As part of this, the authors advocate a temporary escape clause concerning the free movement of labour, which any member state can invoke when and only when they can prove that EU migration is directly harming a significant part of domestic society.
Beacon of stability: The foundations of Germany’s success
David Folkerts-Landau and Stefan Schneider (DB Research) Dec 15, 2016
Germany remains an anchor of steadiness with an undisputed role as leader in Europe and is the only country that comes close to being on a par with America. This story of success is based on many structural factors, some of which complement and mutually reinforce each other. We group them as follows: (1) Macropolicies focused on stability and growth (2) Institutions grounded in German ‘ordoliberalism’ (3) Global companies with unique structures (4) An equitable system of social security and cooperative social partners (5) A long-term perspective by companies and citizens with the willingness to forgo immediate reward – in our view the most important factor in the success. The combination of innovative, multinational companies, functioning institutions and highly skilled workers will, in our view, maintain Germany’s competitiveness and prosperity into the future. German politicians are therefore confronted with the increasing challenge of holding the eurozone together. However, if anti-euro movements gain the upper hand in key partner countries, thereby increasing the disruptive risks, there may be a reassessment in Germany of the euro’s costs and benefits.
Nine New Findings About Inequality in the United States
Jeremy Ashkenas (NYT) Dec 16, 2016
In a paper published last week, Piketty, Saez and Zucman expand their earlier work on income inequality, examining how taxes and government spending affect income inequality.
Aid effectiveness in fragile states
Laurence Chandy, Brina Seidel, and Christine Zhang (Brookings) Dec 16, 2016
While the number of people living under the extreme poverty line reduced dramatically—from 1.8 billion in 1990 to 800 million in 2013—the total number of extremely poor people living in fragile states rose over the same period. Experts weigh in on the potential harm of aid giving in fragile settings.
Public policy in a zero-growth scenario
Enrico Perotti (VoxEU) Dec 16, 2016
Per-capita income in developed countries has stagnated, which most economists regard as a departure from the long-run trend. This column argues that zero long-term growth will be the new normal. In this zero-growth world, spending increases must always be balanced against spending reductions elsewhere or in the future, which creates a further problem: no politician could implement policy changes with such bleak outcomes. Per-capita income in developed countries has stagnated, which most economists regard as a departure from the long-run trend. This column argues that zero long-term growth will be the new normal. In this zero-growth world, spending increases must always be balanced against spending reductions elsewhere or in the future, which creates a further problem: no politician could implement policy changes with such bleak outcomes.
The ‘how’ and the ‘when’ in fiscal adjustments
Alberto Alesina, Gualtiero Azzalini, Carlo Favero, Francesco Giavazzi and Armando Miano (VoxEU) Dec 16, 2016
When a government wants to cut a deficit, it must decide both how and when to do it. Research has treated the two questions as if they are independent, which risks attributing good policy to good timing, or vice versa. This column argues that when the effects are considered simultaneously, the composition of fiscal adjustments is much more important than the state of the cycle. Fiscal adjustments based upon spending cuts have losses that are on average close to zero, while those based upon tax increases are associated with large and prolonged recessions, regardless of whether or not the adjustment starts in a recession. When a government wants to cut a deficit, it must decide both how and when to do it. Research has treated the two questions as if they are independent, which risks attributing good policy to good timing, or vice versa. This column argues that when the effects are considered simultaneously, the composition of fiscal adjustments is much more important than the state of the cycle. Fiscal adjustments based upon spending cuts have losses that are on average close to zero, while those based upon tax increases are associated with large and prolonged recessions, regardless of whether or not the adjustment starts in a recession.
Why Central Banks Should Offer Bank Accounts to Everyone
Nicholas Gruen (Evonomics) Dec 16, 2016
Central banking disrupted for the 21st century.
Import Penetration and Domestic Innovation: A View into Dynamic Gains from Trade
Maria D. Tito (FEDS Notes) Dec 16, 2016
How large are the welfare gains from international trade?
Trump’s Chinese Scapegoat
Eswar Prasad (Project Syndicate) Dec 17, 2016
As part of a broader effort to take China to task for supposedly “raping” the US economy through unfair trade policy, US President-elect Donald Trump has now accused the country of manipulating its currency to gain an advantage for its exports. Such statements are as dangerous as they are disconnected from reality.
Scotland’s plan to protect its place in European single market
Nicola Sturgeon (FT) Dec 18, 2016
The EU has always shown itself to be adaptable to political realities.
Donald Trump’s collision course with China
Edward Luce (FT) Dec 18, 2016
Without realising it, US voters appear to have opened the gates to a new cold war.
Reform the economic system now or the populists will do it
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Dec 18, 2016
The interests of the financial sector and the economy at large are different.
Will A Stronger Dollar Cause a Trade War with Europe?
Brendan Brown (Mises Daily) Dec 18, 2016
Markets have not been slow to see through the hollowness of the European Central Bank's announced (on December 8) curtailment of the pace of money printing planned for April next year.
Trump’s Infrastructure Mistake
Alan S. Blinder and Alan B. Krueger (WSJ) Dec 18, 2016
The president-elect wants to draw in private money—but do investors swoon to fix leaky school roofs?
A Computer Can’t Do the Fed’s Job
Neel Kashkari (WSJ) Dec 18, 2016
Mechanically following the Taylor rule would limit the central bank’s policy tools and harm the economy.
Indonesia an oasis of economic stability?
Mari Pangestu (EAF) Dec 18, 2016
Despite major domestic and external challenges, Indonesia is expected to grow at around 5 per cent again this year — much like last year — and only slightly below the official estimate of 5.3 per cent but much lower than the 7 per cent the new government had targeted.
Multi-destination exporters coping with stringent technical regulations
Lionel Fontagné, Gianluca Orefice (VoxEU) Dec 18, 2016
Regulation is a barrier to trade. This column uses French firm-level panel data to assess how technical barriers to trade impact firms’ exports. In the presence of stringent barriers, exporters balance the cost of complying with this regulation against the fixed cost of entering a new market. Barriers reduce the number of exporting firms in each sector-destination, especially in sectors with many multi-destination firms. Regulation is a barrier to trade. This column uses French firm-level panel data to assess how technical barriers to trade impact firms’ exports. In the presence of stringent barriers, exporters balance the cost of complying with this regulation against the fixed cost of entering a new market. Barriers reduce the number of exporting firms in each sector-destination, especially in sectors with many multi-destination firms.
The IMF has good reason to stick with Christine Lagarde
FT View Dec 19, 2016
Guilty verdict is a stain on her record but need not cost her the top job.
Welcome sense from UK on the EU customs union
FT View Dec 19, 2016
A step in the right direction but no help for crucial service exports.
A reversal of fortunes for Russia and the west
Frederick Studemann (FT) Dec 19, 2016
The world looks very different since the fall of the Soviet Union 25 years ago.
Doomed to Stagnate?
Bret Stephens (WSJ) Dec 19, 2016
Eight years ago it took 40 days to get a construction permit. Now it’s 81.
The Trump World Order
Bloomberg View Dec 19, 2016
To avoid upending global stability, the president-elect will need to develop respect for it.
Are China's Schools Failing?
Adam Minter (Bloomberg View) Dec 19, 2016
Its education system is rife with inequality. That hurts everyone in the long run.
The International Barriers to Trump’s Economic Plan
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Dec 19, 2016
With Republicans holding majorities in both houses of Congress, US President-elect Donald Trump should have a relatively clear road ahead to implement his domestic economic agenda. But if Trump is to deliver the high growth he has promised, he will have to overcome external barriers as well.
Rising corporate debt and economic activity in emerging markets
Julián Caballero, Andrés Fernández and Jongho Park (VoxEU) Dec 19, 2016
Emerging economies are substantially reliant on foreign corporate debt issuance, which has major macroeconomic implications. This column quantifies the extent to which debt issuance matters for macroeconomic performance in emerging economies, and how much macro vulnerability it has entailed. It finds evidence that a large increase in debt reliance has had a considerable effect on macroeconomic performance, but suggests that potential negative impacts on overall health of economies can be reduced in the future if policymakers have access to more and better information. Emerging economies are substantially reliant on foreign corporate debt issuance, which has major macroeconomic implications. This column quantifies the extent to which debt issuance matters for macroeconomic performance in emerging economies, and how much macro vulnerability it has entailed. It finds evidence that a large increase in debt reliance has had a considerable effect on macroeconomic performance, but suggests that potential negative impacts on overall health of economies can be reduced in the future if policymakers have access to more and better information.
How central banks set interest rates
Richard Barwell (VoxEU) Dec 19, 2016
It is generally assumed that central bankers often argue over the appropriate conduct of monetary policy. Focusing on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, this column argues however that based on what policymakers vote for, there is no evidence that they disagree with one another in any meaningful sense. Either policymakers essentially agree all the time, or they do not vote their view. It is generally assumed that central bankers often argue over the appropriate conduct of monetary policy. Focusing on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, this column argues however that based on what policymakers vote for, there is no evidence that they disagree with one another in any meaningful sense. Either policymakers essentially agree all the time, or they do not vote their view.
Europe might gain from Brexit, but still lose to Asia
Orcun Kaya and Felix Orth (DB Research) Dec 19, 2016
Regulatory reforms have already reshaped derivatives trading in Europe. The upcoming potential shift towards central clearing for some derivatives classes and the availability of CCPs globally will likely result in some fragmentation in derivatives trading. FX derivatives markets are providing first insights into this: Asia already makes up 26% of global FX derivative trading volumes in 2016. As the Asian exposures of European firms and Asian financial sector grow, hedging currency risks in local Asian markets seem to be becoming common practice. This may fuel the ongoing decentralisation of global derivatives trading and give rise to higher costs for market participants.
China’s Bond Warning
WSJ Dec 20, 2016
The strong dollar will test China’s financial markets and economy.
Trump’s OMB pick seems poised to ignite a worldwide financial crisis
Catherine Rampell (WP) Dec 20, 2016
He’s content to default on our debt — and that’s dangerous.
Trump Helps Make Japan Normal Again
Bloomberg View Dec 20, 2016
Speculation over the next president’s budgets has driven down the yen -- a reminder of the limits to purely domestic economic policies.
Markets Are Going to Roil Next Year
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Dec 20, 2016
Trump, China and political populism are going to end a period of stability.
A Chance to Fix the Way the IMF Picks Its Leader
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Dec 20, 2016
Lagarde's conviction is a good opportunity to reform an antiquated and unfair process.
The Fed Puts China in a Bind
Christopher Balding (Bloomberg View) Dec 20, 2016
China's monetary goals are in conflict. Rising U.S. rates may bring matters to a head.
Greece’s Perpetual Crisis
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Dec 20, 2016
The problem with Greece is that everyone – the government, the European Commission, the European Central Bank, Germany, and the IMF – is lying. To end the country's crisis once and for all requires a unilateral moratorium on all repayments until substantial debt restructuring and reasonable fiscal targets are agreed.
Theresa May’s Brexit Problem
Jacek Rostowski (Project Syndicate) Dec 20, 2016
The UK is approaching a fundamental political realignment, for which the current government is totally unprepared. It will come as soon as enough people realize that Prime Minister Theresa May has underestimated the EU, and cannot possibly satisfy the "Leave" coalition's two main factions.
India Overtakes Britain as the World’s Sixth-Largest Economy
Robbie Gramer (FP) Dec 20, 2016
India overtakes Britain as the world’s sixth largest economy.
To Understand 2016’s Politics, Look at the Winners and Losers of Globalization
Vincent Bevins (TNR) Dec 20, 2016
An interview with economist Branko Milanovic.
Ethiopia losing FDI as unrest rattles investors
Sebastian Shehadi (FT) Dec 21, 2016
Protesters target foreign businesses as benefits of growth fail to trickle down.
The ECJ’s trade decision puts EU-UK trade deal on the line
Alan Beattie (FT) Dec 21, 2016
The Wallonian parliament will still have a say on future agreements.
Why Venezuela Should Default
Joe Kogan (NYT) Dec 21, 2016
Postponing the inevitable will worsen the economy and is unfair to long-term creditors.
The future of work: a world of new and changing skills
Glenda Quintini (OECD Insights) Dec 21, 2016
What do you want to be when you grow up?
European Banks Risk Becoming Irrelevant
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Dec 21, 2016
They risk becoming irrelevant if they don’t commit capital to their core businesses.
Manufacturing Matters Even If It Doesn't Create Many Jobs
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Dec 21, 2016
Making things goes hand in hand with the innovation that leads to growth.
Little Improvements Crowd Out World-Changing Innovation
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Dec 21, 2016
Modest but constant refinements leave little room for revolutionary inventions.
The Coming Brexit Tragedy
Mark Leonard (Project Syndicate) Dec 21, 2016
In Brexit pre-negotiations, both UK and EU officials have ignored the far-reaching implications of Donald Trump’s election as US president – namely, the decline of the liberal world order. Unless they update their tactics to reflect today's new reality, the results will be devastating for both sides.
Why central bank models failed and how to repair them
John Muellbauer (VoxEU) Dec 21, 2016
The failure of the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to capture interactions of finance and the real economy has been widely recognised since the Global Crisis. This column argues that the flaws in these models stem from unrealistic micro-foundations for household behaviour and from wrongly assuming that aggregate behaviour mimics a fully informed ‘representative agent’. Rather than ‘one-size-fits-all’ monetary and macroprudential policy, institutional differences between countries imply major differences for monetary policy transmission and policy. The failure of the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to capture interactions of finance and the real economy has been widely recognised since the Global Crisis. This column argues that the flaws in these models stem from unrealistic micro-foundations for household behaviour and from wrongly assuming that aggregate behaviour mimics a fully informed ‘representative agent’. Rather than ‘one-size-fits-all’ monetary and macroprudential policy, institutional differences between countries imply major differences for monetary policy transmission and policy.
Spanish economic growth in the long run
Leandro Prados de la Escosura (VoxEU) Dec 21, 2016
A new set of historical national accounts for Spain constructs estimates of output and expenditure from 1850 onwards, which means we can estimate the evolution of GDP per capita and labour productivity during this period. This column argues that the data demonstrates that GDP per capita captures long-run trends in welfare in Spain, but not short and medium run trends. A new set of historical national accounts for Spain constructs estimates of output and expenditure from 1850 onwards, which means we can estimate the evolution of GDP per capita and labour productivity during this period. This column argues that the data demonstrates that GDP per capita captures long-run trends in welfare in Spain, but not short and medium run trends.
The Judge Who Could Remake Brazil
Robert I. Rotberg (FA) Dec 21, 2016
How Sergio Moro has tackled corruption.
Economic Snapshot for the Major Economies
(Focus Econ) Dec 21, 2016
Global economy suffers another lackluster year in 2016.
Russia’s politics blights its economic outlook
FT View Dec 22, 2016
Real reform could boost growth but would threaten Putin’s power.
How robots are making humans indispensable
Gillian Tett (FT) Dec 22, 2016
Paradoxically, Trump’s policies could speed automation and the loss of jobs.
My Christmas tree lights and the success of globalisation
John Gapper (FT) Dec 22, 2016
The evolution of LEDs shows how innovation occurs steadily as companies compete.
The renminbi: not as weak as you think
Steve Johnson (FT) Dec 22, 2016
Trade-weighted stability since June feeds talk of a policy reversal by Beijing.
Monte dei Paschi rescue is step one to rebuild stability in Italy
Tony Barber (FT) Dec 22, 2016
Parliamentary elections in 2017 will help fix the political system.
Lagarde’s Failure to Do the Honorable Thing – And Resign
Jean-Pierre Lehmann (Globalist) Dec 22, 2016
Christine Lagarde’s confirmation as IMF Managing Director further undermines global governance.
Demonetization on Five Continents
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Dec 22, 2016
Around the world, several countries are currently undergoing demonetization, or currency reforms in which the government removes banknotes of a certain denomination from circulation and replaces them with new notes. Governments pursue demonetization for a variety of reasons, but some efforts go better than others.
Investing in a Closed-Border World
Christopher Smart (Project Syndicate) Dec 22, 2016
As giddy global markets continue to set new records, investors cannot ignore the economic and technological trends that await. In 2017, they will need to reappraise how the global economy works, because even if some market fundamentals remain the same, many others have clearly changed.
The Destructive Power of Inflation
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Dec 22, 2016
Argentina’s experience holds two crucial lessons for other countries. First, price stability is fragile, and the inflation rate can rise rapidly. And, second, high rates of inflation remain in the public’s memory and have long-lasting adverse effects.
Global firms: Insights for trade and trade policy
Andrew Bernard, J. Bradford Jensen, Stephen Redding and Peter Schott (VoxEU) Dec 22, 2016
Events of the last year have raised questions about the future growth of international trade. This column examines the role played by ‘global firms’ that both import and export, and are likely to be part of multinationals, in the international economy. In a world of interdependent firm decisions, small reductions in tariffs or trade costs can have magnified effects on trade flows, as they induce firms to serve more markets with more products at greater volumes, and also to source greater volumes of intermediate inputs from more countries. At the same time, policies to restrict imports can end up hurting producers for whom both importing and exporting are a central pillar of their overall business strategy. Events of the last year have raised questions about the future growth of international trade. This column examines the role played by ‘global firms’ that both import and export, and are likely to be part of multinationals, in the international economy. In a world of interdependent firm decisions, small reductions in tariffs or trade costs can have magnified effects on trade flows, as they induce firms to serve more markets with more products at greater volumes, and also to source greater volumes of intermediate inputs from more countries. At the same time, policies to restrict imports can end up hurting producers for whom both importing and exporting are a central pillar of their overall business strategy.
Global Upheaval: The Sad New Normal
Markus Heinrich (Globalist) Dec 23, 2016
Instead of strengthening the stabilizing institutions, we are allowing them to fall.
The Opportunity in Italy's Banking Crisis
Bloomberg View Dec 23, 2016
It may be Europe’s best chance yet to achieve a lasting solution to Italy’s financial woes — and even strengthen the union.
The Crisis of Market Fundamentalism
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Dec 23, 2016
When a particular model of capitalism is working successfully, material progress relieves political pressures. But, as we saw in 2016, when the economy fails – and the failure is not just a transient phase but a symptom of deep contradictions – capitalism’s disruptive social side effects can turn politically toxic.
When Leaders Are True to Their Lies
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Dec 23, 2016
All governments lie, and some even believe their own lies; but things get dangerous when a government acts in order to be true to its lies. This is the trap into which the Venezuelan government has fallen, and it seems to be the logic behind the incoming Trump administration's apparent determination to withdraw from NAFTA.
Democracy Is Dying as Technocrats Watch
William Easterly (FP) Dec 23, 2016
Assaults on democracy are working because our current political elites have no idea how to defend it.
Networks of value-added trade
João Amador and Sónia Cabral (VoxEU) Dec 23, 2016
Global Value Chains have become the paradigm for the international organisation of production in almost all sectors. Bilateral gross trade flows no longer accurately represent interconnections among countries, so new methods of analysis are needed. Using tools of network analysis, this column assesses the roles of goods and services as both inputs and outputs in GVCs between 1995 and 2011 and examines the profile of Germany, the US, China and Russia as suppliers of value added. Global Value Chains have become the paradigm for the international organisation of production in almost all sectors. Bilateral gross trade flows no longer accurately represent interconnections among countries, so new methods of analysis are needed. Using tools of network analysis, this column assesses the roles of goods and services as both inputs and outputs in GVCs between 1995 and 2011 and examines the profile of Germany, the US, China and Russia as suppliers of value added.
Banking deglobalisation: Spillovers and interactions of monetary and regulatory policies
Kristin Forbes, Dennis Reinhardt and Tomasz Wieladek (VoxEU) Dec 23, 2016
Globalisation is in retreat, but while the slowdown in trade is widely recognised, what is more striking is the collapse of global trade flows. This column shows how banking deglobalisation is a substantial contributor to the slowdown in global trade. It finds that certain types of unconventional monetary policy, and their interactions with regulatory policy, can have important global spillovers. Policies designed to support domestic lending may have had the unintended consequence of amplifying the impact of microprudential capital requirements on external lending. Globalisation is in retreat, but while the slowdown in trade is widely recognised, what is more striking is the collapse of global trade flows. This column shows how banking deglobalisation is a substantial contributor to the slowdown in global trade. It finds that certain types of unconventional monetary policy, and their interactions with regulatory policy, can have important global spillovers. Policies designed to support domestic lending may have had the unintended consequence of amplifying the impact of microprudential capital requirements on external lending.
How Norman rule reshaped England
Economist Dec 24, 2016
England is indelibly European.
What not to expect in 2017
Economist Dec 24, 2017
How the markets may take investors by surprise.
Can Inequality Be Reduced?
Branko Milanovic (Globalist) Dec 24, 2016
What are the realistic options to tackle the scourge of crass inequality in rich welfare states?
Input-output linkages and income differences across countries
Harald Fadinger, Christian Ghiglino and Mariya Teteryatnikova (VoxEU) Dec 24, 2016
Economists are just starting to understand how observed input-output linkages and productivity differences are connected. This column investigates how differences in the distribution of sectoral input-output multipliers interact with sectoral productivities to determine cross-country differences in aggregate income. It finds that the impact of the linkages on productivity are substantial, which in turn has significant implications for policy. Economists are just starting to understand how observed input-output linkages and productivity differences are connected. This column investigates how differences in the distribution of sectoral input-output multipliers interact with sectoral productivities to determine cross-country differences in aggregate income. It finds that the impact of the linkages on productivity are substantial, which in turn has significant implications for policy.
Managing the crash in commodity prices
Rick van der Ploeg (VoxEU) Dec 24, 2016
Policy advice for countries managing oil and gas windfalls is typically to smooth consumption boosts by borrowing on international capital markets pre-windfall, repaying the debt and accumulating assets in a sovereign wealth fund during the windfall, and withdrawing from that fund when the windfall ends. This column outlines various reasons why this approach can be disastrous for developing countries, and also considers the best response to a commodity price crash. Policy advice for countries managing oil and gas windfalls is typically to smooth consumption boosts by borrowing on international capital markets pre-windfall, repaying the debt and accumulating assets in a sovereign wealth fund during the windfall, and withdrawing from that fund when the windfall ends. This column outlines various reasons why this approach can be disastrous for developing countries, and also considers the best response to a commodity price crash.
China's love affair with the dollar
Salvatore Babones (Aljazeera) Dec 25, 2016
Despite the internationalisation of the yuan, the US dollar remains China's currency of choice.
And the Trade War Came
Paul Krugman (NYT) Dec 26, 2016
Tariffs: A bad idea whose time has come.
In Russia, It's Not the Economy, Stupid
Sergei Guriev (NYT) Dec 26, 2016
A president's popularity used to depend on growth. Now it depends on geopolitics.
The Threat To Global Banking Standards
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Dec 26, 2016
The 2008 financial crisis gave a big boost to the global standard-setters. But there are now dangerous signs that the commitment to strengthening global standards – indeed, to any common standards at all – may be on the wane.
Trump’s Gathering Trade War
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Dec 26, 2016
Donald Trump's use of foreign trade as a lightning rod in his presidential campaign is not an uncommon tactic for candidates at either end of the political spectrum. What is unusual is that he has not moderated his anti-trade tone since winning, despite the potentially disastrous consequences for the US and the world.
Was 2016 the Best Year Ever?
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Dec 26, 2016
Contrary to popular opinion, the world is not going to hell in a handbasket. While there are plenty of problems that still need to be addressed, they are often not the ones that are keeping us up at night.
A Growth Agenda for China
Michael Spence and Qian Wan (Project Syndicate) Dec 26, 2016
At a time when the US is poised to turn inward, China’s economic performance is more important globally than ever. Whether China can achieve sustainable growth patterns in the coming years will depend on several key factors, the most important being internal.
Donald Trump threatens the resilience of world trade
FT View Dec 27, 2016
Globalisation has survived shocks but it will struggle with this one.
P>When robots take jobs, workers deserve compensation
John Thornhill (FT) Dec 27, 2016
We can take lessons from London’s ferrymen, made obsolete by bridges and transport.
Latin Economies Face a Big China Choice
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Dec 27, 2016
Should they open wider to Chinese competition?
Will Europe Let Germany Lead?
Marcel Fratzscher (Project Syndicate) Dec 27, 2016
Many large EU member states have become preoccupied with domestic issues at a time when Europe needs to make important collective economic and foreign-policy decisions. There is growing pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to step up and lead, but she can't do it without willing European partners.
China bulls determined to find their voices as sentiment sours
Jennifer Hughes and Hudson Lockett (FT) Dec 28, 2016
Strategists say fears over Chinese stocks are overdone, but investors still bear scars.
Poland is a nation ill at ease with itself
Henry Foy (FT) Dec 28, 2016
Political divisions intensify as a parliamentary stand-off drags on.
A Brazilian bribery machine
Joe Leahy (FT) Dec 28, 2016
Record fine for illegal payments by Odebrecht raises hopes of end to the country’s culture of impunity.
Central Bankers Are Losing Faith in Their Own Alchemy by David Gordon
David Gordon (Mises Daily) Dec 28, 2016
In his new book, central banker Mervyn King sometimes sounds like Murray Rothbard. But in the end he continues the problem of central banking control.
The Coming Short-Termism
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Dec 28, 2016
Donald Trump could bring more short-term thinking to economic policymaking in the US and around the world. If it does, we can expect to see increased tension between official measures and long-term goals, especially for monetary policy, development, and trade.
How to Help the African Dust Bowl
Jeff Raikes (Project Syndicate) Dec 28, 2016
As agricultural science in Africa moves forward, governments must ensure that farmers can make the best use of new innovations. Government investment paves the way for private-sector investment, which could be a game-changer for farmers who have operated at subsistence levels for far too long.
Open Society Needs Defending
George Soros (Project Syndicate) Dec 28, 2016
Open societies are in crisis, and various forms of closed societies – from fascist dictatorships to mafia states – are on the rise. Because elected leaders failed to meet voters’ legitimate expectations and aspirations, electorates have become disenchanted with the prevailing versions of democracy and capitalism.
Offer Maduro’s allies a safe exit from Venezuela
FT View Dec 29, 2016
A bleak outlook with no change in government and no debt default.
Uncertainty will shape the UK economy in 2017
FT View Dec 29, 2016
Big political and economic ambiguities dominate its prospects.
Greece: A question of independence
Jim Brunsden and Kerin Hope (FT) Dec 29, 2016
Is Syriza cracking down on the country’s institutions or upending vested interests?
Guardians of the 1%
Aifric Campbell (WSJ) Dec 29, 2016
Assets are hidden and taxes dodged in an offshore world that creates ‘zones of lawlessness’ and acts as a ‘parasitic twin’ on nation-states. Aifric Campbell reviews ‘Capital Without Borders’ by Brooke Harrington.
Can Trump bring back manufacturing jobs?
David Dollar (Brookings) Dec 29, 2016
Donald Trump has promised to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., but global economic forces and technological advancements will make that difficult to achieve.
I'm a Tourist in Lagos. You Have a Problem With That?
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg View) Dec 29, 2016
It's a neat place for a GDP freak like me.
Learning to Love a Multipolar World
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Dec 29, 2016
The only sane way forward for the US is vigorous global cooperation to realize the potential of twenty-first-century science and technology to slash poverty, disease, and environmental threats. The rise of regional powers is not a threat to the US, but an opportunity for a new era of prosperity and constructive problem solving.
Trump’s Uncertain New World
Jorge G. Castañeda (Project Syndicate) Dec 29, 2016
The only certainty about Donald Trump’s incoming administration is the uncertainty that will attend it. Remaining unpredictable may be a successful tactic in business, but it is an unsettling, even dangerous, trait for a US president.
The Next Migrant Wave
Stephen Groff (Project Syndicate) Dec 29, 2016
The world is even less prepared for future migrants fleeing the effects of climate change than Europe is for the current wave of people arriving at its shores. The climate threat cannot be overstated: if sea levels rise by more than one meter, entire populations of Pacific island-states may have to relocate.
New Year’s Resolution: Jobs
Fred P. Hochberg (FP) Dec 29, 2016
If the Trump administration is serious about keeping jobs in America, it needs a strong and energized EXIM Bank.
Across Europe, populists drag moderates right
Tony Barber (FT) Dec 30, 2016
Hardening social attitudes and electoral pressures force the centre-right’s hand.
What Nutmeg Can Tell Us About Nafta
Amitav Ghosh (NYT) Dec 30, 2016
The Spice Islands can teach us about the sins and virtues of globalization.
Resurgence of State-Led Growth in China?
Nicholas R. Lardy and Zixuan Huang (PIIE) Dec 30, 2016
A new report from the Chinese statistical authorities shows that for the first time in almost four years the growth of profits of state-controlled industrial firms has exceeded that of private registered industrial firms.
Will Dollar Strength Trigger Intervention in 2017?
Carmen Reinhart (Project Syndicate) Dec 30, 2016
While it is quite plausible to expect that Dona'd Trump’s incoming US administration will want to reverse the dollar’s climb, it is equally plausible that no other major economy will help. If the strong dollar prompts intervention in currency markets in 2017, the most likely scenario is one in which the US intervenes alone.
A Socialist Market Economy With Chinese Contradictions
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Dec 30, 2016
China confounded widespread expectations of a sharp slowdown in economic growth in 2016. But the longer China's credit boom continues, the less likely it will be that policymakers can achieve a smooth transition to a sustainable economic path.