News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

Time for investors to focus on India
Merryn Somerset Webb (FT) Oct 1, 2021
Country offers opportunities, especially with China falling out of favour.

Federal Reserve stock trading is dangerous
Tom Braithwaite (FT) Oct 1, 2021
Officials should not be buying and selling individual company shares.

The optimists still at the bull market party
Katie Martin (FT) Oct 1, 2021
Some argue that betting against equities makes little sense while interest rates are low.

Today’s energy crisis and the bumpy path to decarbonisation
Martijn Rats (FT) Oct 1, 2021
Unexpected consequences of climate change and net zero policies are affecting the world beyond commodities.

Surging gas prices likely to reverse course
Mike Fulwood (FT) Oct 1, 2021
It would take a longer and colder winter than last year to see market pricing sustained above current levels.

Politicians need to be more active when it comes to greenflation
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 1, 2021
Governments must come up with intelligent policies to soften the costs from climate change reforms.

Stock, Bond and Real Estate Prices Are All Uncomfortably High
Robert J. Shiller (NYT) Oct 1, 2021
An economist says the three major U.S. markets all show signs of severe overpricing.

Inflation Warning Signs Flash Red, Posing Challenge for Washington
Jeanna Smialek (NYT) Oct 1, 2021
Inflation, once expected to fade quickly, is proving more stubborn. That ramps up tension among officials as they wait for pressures to fade.

Crypto Boom Poses New Challenges to Financial Stability
Dimitris Drakopoulos, Fabio Natalucci, and Evan Papageorgiou (IMF) Oct 1, 2021
Consumer protection risks remain substantial given limited or inadequate disclosure and oversight.

Demand Is Not the Economy’s Problem. Supply Is.
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 1, 2021
Policy makers and central bankers are stuck in a mindset from the last crisis and need to alter their thinking.

There's Plenty of Stimulus Fuel Left to Drive the Economy
Conor Sen (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 1, 2021
Money saved from relief checks and rising property values provide lots of cash still waiting to be spent. Some of it should go to fill jobs.

Behind the Modern Malaise
Brigitte Granville (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2021
For decades, workers have been missing out on many of the gains of economic growth, and countless analyses have been published to explain why. Though the problem is fundamentally economic, it cannot be understood without also accounting for technology, politics, and culture.

The current bail-in design does not resolve the too-big-to-fail problem
J. Doyne Farmer, Charles Goodhart, and Alissa Kleinnijenhuis (VoxEU) Oct 1, 2021
Since the Great Financial Crisis, bail-in has been introduced as an approach to address too-big-to-fail and contagion risk problems. This column uses a multi-layered network model of the European financial system to study the implication of bail-in design on financial stability. It shows that early implementation of a bail-in and stronger bank recapitalisation lead to lower contagion losses. However, current bail-in design seems to be in the region of instability and the political economy of incentives makes reforms unlikely in the near future.

The End of China’s Rise
Michael Beckley and Hal Brands (FA) Oct 1, 2021
Beijing is running out of time to remake the world.

How a housing downturn could wreck China’s growth model
Economist Oct 2, 2021
Evergrande’s woes expose the economy’s unhealthy dependence on property.

Machines are not ready to take over just yet
FT View Oct 3, 2021
Labour shortages will spur further automation — but not everywhere.

It is time to lop off the dead hand of the Treasury
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 3, 2021
Politicians should consider radical alternatives to managing an unpleasant normality.

The left’s low-rate fantasy makes inequality worse
Rana Foroohar (FT) Oct 3, 2021
Easy money is not creating better jobs, it’s feeding market bubbles that make the asset-rich richer.

Money isn’t everything in the Great Re-evaluation
Pilita Clark (FT) Oct 3, 2021
People are rethinking what they really want from working life and employers need to watch them closely.

How to Stem Illegal Migration Flows
Mary Anastasia O'Grady (WSJ) Oct 3, 2021
Visas for migrants and freer regional trade are the win-win the U.S. needs.

Does the Fed Have the Will to Fight Inflation?
Jason De Sena Trennert (WSJ) Oct 3, 2021
Real tightening could pose risks to the economy and, in turn, to the central bank’s independence.

Australia’s luck may be another casualty of the pandemic
Tom Westland (EAF) Oct 3, 2021
With the pandemic and that election out of the way, whether Australia’s politicians can show leadership in addressing the long-term and structural challenges to the country’s economic future is the big question.

OPEC+ Should Worry About Oil Shortfalls Not Surpluses
Julian Lee (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 3, 2021
The oil producer group should tap the flexible policy it loves so much.

’Tis the Season for Price Increases and Missing Stock
Lara Williams (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 3, 2021
Massive supply-chain disruptions are already disrupting the holiday season. Yes, you’re behind, and it’s only October.

India’s Chip Dreams Aren’t Crazy, They’re Just Misguided
Tim Culpan (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 3, 2021
New Delhi wants to lure a Taiwanese name to burnish its credentials, but there’s far more suitable candidates if the government is willing to be a little more pragmatic.

A Global Institution for an Aging World
John E. Ataguba, David E. Bloom, and Andrew J. Scott (Project Syndicate) Oct 3, 2021
At an international level, no single institution is responsible for safeguarding the rights and advocating for the interests of the world’s fastest-growing age group – those 65 and over. But the world’s governance architecture must adapt to its changing demographic structure.

Trust in the ECB during the pandemic
Carin van der Cruijsen and Anna Samarina (VoxEU) Oct 3, 2021
In turbulent times, trust in our central banks is important. This column uses the survey data on consumer expectations to gauge trust in the ECB during the Covid-19 pandemic. The authors find that trust in the ECB depends on consumers’ financial knowledge and on how severely they are affected by the pandemic, and that this trust and financial knowledge both contribute to better anchoring of consumers’ inflation expectations around the ECB’s inflation target. Possible routes to improve trust include activities that enhance financial knowledge, tailoring central bank communication in terms of content and targeting it at people with low trust.

The bull case for investing in China
Jeffrey Kleintop (FT) Oct 4, 2021
Long-term investors know patience may be rewarded with strong gains.

The Stock Market’s Hot Summer Became a Swoon. Where Does It Go Next?
Matt Phillips (NYT) Oct 4, 2021
Inflation and supply chain problems have been a concern since the pandemic began. But action by the Federal Reserve and pressure on corporate profits put those worries in sharp focus.

Biden’s Trade Strategy That Isn’t
WSJ Oct 4, 2021
Trade Rep Tai offers a China policy that is Trump Lite.

Belt and Road starts and stops in China’s backyard
Bertil Lintner (AT) Oct 4, 2021
Laos will be transformed from a land-locked to land-linked country on December 2, the day the first high-speed train on the Belt and Road Initiative-built railroad is scheduled to roll into the capital Vientiane arriving from the southern Chinese province of Yunnan. Beijing is seeking to showcase the China-Lao train as a Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) success story.

China: Trade war tariffs will backfire on US
Jeff Pao (AT) Oct 4, 2021
China says the United States will hurt its own economy and companies with any further tariff hikes on Chinese goods. The warning came shortly before a top US trade official was due to announce the result of a review of a Trump-era trade deal and lay out the Biden administration’s approach to the trade relationship with China.

Xi plots prudent response to Evergrande crisis
William Pesek (AT) Oct 4, 2021
Beijing is nudging China’s biggest banks to support the property sector, loosen credit conditions for homeowners and in certain cases buy out some of Evergrande stakes in financial institutions to restore calm in credit markets. It’s not clear if the strategy will cheer global investors, but so far China is indeed avoiding a 2008-like meltdown.

The age of fossil-fuel abundance is dead
Economist Oct 4, 2021
Dwindling investment in oil, gas and coal means high prices are here to stay.

How Investment Funds Can Drive the Green Transition
Fabio Natalucci, Felix Suntheim, and Jérôme Vandenbussche (IMF) Oct 4, 2021
Sustainable investment funds need to be scaled up to support a successful transition to a green economy.

The Era of Cash Is Ending
Eswar Prasad (BRINK) Oct 4, 2021
Digital currencies hold great promise for the millions without bank accounts, but there are risks, too, including the possibility of macroeconomic instability.

Why Biden will try to enforce Trump’s phase one trade deal with China
Chad P. Bown (PIIE) Oct 4, 2021
After eight months of reviewing the legacy of former President Donald Trump's trade war with China, the Biden administration has decided to hold China's feet to the fire on at least one important aspect of that confrontation. The administration will continue enforcing the so-called "phase one agreement" that China signed in early 2020, including its commitment to purchases of US goods that it has so far fallen short of fulfilling.

The U.S. Can’t Be Smart on China Without Talking Trade
Bloomberg Opinion Oct 4, 2021
Even as it strengthens ties with allies in Asia, the Biden administration is undercutting its broader strategy by refusing to engage on the region’s foremost concern.

Paul J. Davies (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 4, 2021
CBDCs have the potential to disrupt the world of money as we know it and lots of people are trying to figure out how to preserve the status quo.

The Federal Reserve Confronts an Almost Impossible Task
Gary Shilling (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 4, 2021
Only perfection will prevent the central bank's credibility from eroding even further.

The Less Popular Oil Gets, the More It Costs
Liam Denning (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 4, 2021
Even as prices surge, investors stand ready to punish producers for pumping more.

Argentina's Confidence Game
Hector R. Torres (Project Syndicate) Oct 4, 2021
Argentina once again finds itself running out of dollars and urgently in need of assistance from the International Monetary Fund. But with a ruling coalition that lacks a common view on whether and how the economy needs to be reformed, outside assistance will not resolve the country’s secular malaise.

Central Banks and the Looming Financial Reckoning
Willem H. Buiter (Project Syndicate) Oct 4, 2021
Across the advanced economies, central banks have rightly prioritized maintaining financial stability and supporting the real economy over fighting inflation with interest-rate hikes. But with financial fragility rife and public and private leverage at all-time highs, their next big test is coming.

The Neglected Sources of China's Economic Resilience
Zhang Jun (Project Syndicate) Oct 4, 2021
Many China-watchers are pessimistic about its prospects, arguing that it remains overly reliant on Western technology. But thanks to a huge, interconnected market, and an exceptional capacity for learning, the entrepreneurial impulse driving China’s development remains strong.

From Gaps to Growth: Equity as a Path to Prosperity
Mary C. Daly (FRBSF Econ Letter) Oct 4, 2021
The pandemic has shined a vivid light on the deep roots of economic inequity, showing that the rules are not the same for everyone. Persistent, unfair gaps in opportunity and well-being across different groups in our society limit people’s potential. Eliminating these inequities could substantially boost GDP and increase the economy’s long-run rate of growth, leading to greater prosperity for all.

Belt and Road Meets Build Back Better
Keith Johnson (FP) Oct 4, 2021
Can the West’s newfangled development programs compete with China’s?

Central banks must be alert to stagflation
FT View Oct 5, 2021
Global economy is still growing but supply chain disruption is a cause for concern.

Fed policy must not halt the job recovery
Julia Coronado (FT) Oct 5, 2021
Central bank should look at labour participation to fulfil dual mandates.

Beijing vs bitcoin: why China is cracking down on crypto
Ryan McMorrow (FT) Oct 5, 2021
Supporters champion a digital currency beyond the control of a central authority — but an authoritarian government is putting that idea to the test.

Emerging markets’ tough test
Robert Armstrong (FT) Oct 5, 2021
Where stagflation hits hardest.

Fears of a ‘Bottleneck Recession’: How Shortages Are Hurting Germany
Jack Ewing (NYT) Oct 5, 2021
Europe’s largest economy is particularly vulnerable to shortages of key parts and raw materials because of its dependence on exports.

Dangers Of a Digital Dollar
Alexander William Salter (WSJ) Oct 5, 2021
If widely used, it would give the central bank unprecedented power over the financial system.

The success of ‘Squid Game’ illustrates the benefits of globalization and free trade
Max Boot(WaPo) Oct 5, 2021
There’s a reason that TV is so much better than when I was young.

How Will Digital Currencies Change the Financial Sector?
Eswar Prasad (BRINK) Oct 5, 2021
Digital and crypto currencies are rapidly changing the nature of money itself, but the proliferation of new currencies could also threaten the stability of the financial system. The impact of these currencies on the banking system.

Global economic recovery remains on track despite Delta variant and supply chain problems
Karen Dynan (PIIE) Oct 5, 2021
Countries around the world are likely to see continued economic recovery this year and next, but the pace of growth will be tempered by headwinds from the Delta variant and supply chain problems and bottlenecks. The world economy is on track to expand 5.6 percent in 2021 and a further 4.9 percent in 2022.

Carbon border taxes: What are their implications for developing countries?
Elena Ianchovichina and Harun Onder (Brookings) Oct 5, 2021
Effects on emissions in developing countries.

Overcoming Divides and Removing Obstacles to Recovery
Kristalina Georgieva (IMF) Oct 5, 2021
We face a global recovery that remains “hobbled” by the pandemic and its impact.

Education in an Age of Displacement
Gordon Brown and Allan Goodman (Project Syndicate) Oct 5, 2021
With the number of displaced people on course to double by mid-century, if not sooner, developing their potential is crucial. Extending hope and opportunity to young people at risk of being left behind is a powerful way to advance human rights, promote equality, and foster peace and stability.

The Bitcoin Fountainhead
Daron Acemoglu (Project Syndicate) Oct 5, 2021
While it is clear that cryptocurrencies are here to stay, it remains to be seen what economic role they will – or should – play. In the case of Bitcoin, the technology's success lies entirely in what it promises, rather than in what it can actually deliver.

The COVID Inflation Scare
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Oct 5, 2021
Central banks become concerned, and usually start tightening policy, when higher inflation fuels higher inflation expectations among consumers. Current trends suggest that US policymakers have more to worry about than their European counterparts.

Enhancing the contribution of intangible assets to productivity
Lilas Demmou and Guido Franco (VoxEU) Oct 5, 2021
Intangible assets are at the heart of firms’ competitiveness, but financing them is complex for many firms. This column examines the extent to which financing barriers affect productivity outcomes in intangible-intensive sectors, using sector- and firm-level data. The authors demonstrate the existence of a ‘financing gap’ which depresses aggregate productivity growth and resilience, and propose a set of policy options to make each source of external finance – government support, equity financing, and bank credit – more supportive of intangible investment.

A novel risk-management perspective for macroprudential policy
Sulkhan Chavleishvili, Stephan Fahr, Manfred Kremer, Simone Manganelli, and Bernd Schwaab (VoxEU) Oct 5, 2021
When managing financial imbalances, macroprudential policymakers face an intertemporal trade-off between facilitating short-term expected growth and containing medium-term downside risks to the economy. To help assess this trade-off, this column proposes a risk management framework which extends the well-known notion of growth-at-risk to consider the entire predictive real GDP growth distribution. The authors use a novel empirical model fitted to euro area data to study the direct and indirect interactions between financial vulnerabilities, financial stress, and real GDP growth, highlighting a number of key findings.

Is Europe’s Energy Crisis a Preview of America’s?
Brenda Shaffer (FP) Oct 5, 2021
Europe has itself to blame for shortages and spiking prices, but Washington is copying many of its policies.

Afghanistan’s Economic Freefall
Stefanie Glinski (FP) Oct 5, 2021
Without urgent assistance, nearly the entire country could sink into poverty, the United Nations Development Program warns.

China’s Economic Coercion Is More Bark Than Bite
Pratik Jakhar (FP) Oct 5, 2021
Beijing’s intimidation rarely works, but it will keep trying.

Stagflation risk returns for investors as gas prices surge
Lena Komileva (FT) Oct 6, 2021
The rosy market calculus of strong growth underpinned by cheap finance into perpetuity is under threat.

Valuation not stories ultimately determines investment returns
Richard Bernstein (FT) Oct 6, 2021
Tremendous liquidity in financial system has led to series of bubbles fed on hype over wondrous trends.

The IMF needs an ombudsman with clout
Daniel Bradlow (FT) Oct 6, 2021
Better governance would boost the Fund’s reputation and the efficacy of its policies.

The economic threats from China’s real estate bubble
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 6, 2021
Property’s great investment boom has reached its limit — the economy needs new drivers of demand.

Financial cleansing deters investment in China
John Redwood (FT) Oct 6, 2021
The markets are dominated by international tensions.

China is Rocked by Uncertainty. Why is Wall Street Bullish?
Li Yuan (NYT) Oct 6, 2021
Beijing is opening its financial system to foreign banks — and they have maintained their traditional openness to the Communist Party’s rule.

China’s Unstable Political Economy
John Lee (WSJ) Oct 6, 2021
Evergrande’s collapse is a sign of deeper weakness, just when Xi is impatient to challenge the U.S.

As Central Banks Taper, Investors Should Take Cover
Dimitris Valatsas (WSJ) Oct 6, 2021
Previously, the European Central Bank and the Fed offset each other’s impact. No such luck this time.

Why Basic Science Matters for Economic Growth
Philip Barrett, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Jean-Marc Natal and Diaa Noureldin (IMF) Oct 6, 2021
Public investment in basic research will pay for itself.

Inflation Scares in an Uncharted Recovery
Francesca Caselli and Prachi Mishra (IMF) Oct 6, 2021
A key question is what combination of events could cause persistently faster price gains.

Despite Germany's trade surplus, manufacturing employment share of total employment has fallen in its industrial hub at a similar rate as in Ohio
Adam S. Posen (PIIE) Oct 6, 2021
Large trade deficits are often blamed for the protracted decline in manufacturing employment in the United States. Critics claim cheap imports from low-wage countries erode the competitiveness of US producers, driving American manufacturing plants and jobs abroad. However, manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has been steadily declining in all high-income economies, even those with strong export sectors and trade surpluses, like Germany.

The Federal Reserve Is Fighting the Wrong Inflation War
William C Dudley (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 6, 2021
The central bank’s approach would have made more sense a decade ago.

The Evidence Is Piling Up: Inflation Doesn’t Look Transient
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 6, 2021
Price pressures are increasing in the U.K. The Bank of England will need to tread carefully in managing expectations.

ESG Will Not Help the Global South
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2021
Now that environment, social, and governance standards have gone mainstream among investors in the advanced economies, the question is what ESG criteria will mean for developing countries. A closer examination shows that such standards have little to offer export-dependent economies, and may even prove counterproductive.

A Made-in-China Financial Crisis?
Paola Subacchi (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2021
Since the 2008 global financial crisis, the Chinese financial system has grown to become systemically important. Yet it is not clear that the international financial safety net has the resources to protect the world from the associated risks.

Dancing with the Debt Ceiling
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2021
Even in 2013, a year of partisan rancor, Democrats and Republicans agreed to suspend the US federal government’s debt ceiling just a week before the Treasury ran out of cash reserves. But this year might be different.

Global Standards for Stablecoins
Ashley Alder and Jon Cunliffe (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2021
When used at scale as a means of payment, stablecoins can present material risks to the financial system. A new consultative report on applying current international payments standards to these digital coins is a milestone in three respects.

Transport's Make-or-Break Decade
Kris Peeters (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2021
It is no secret that combating climate change requires large and timely investments to cut green technology costs, increase efficiencies, support first-movers, and create new zero-emissions markets. Yet, in the European Union, such investment is often hard to come by, especially in the transport sector.

Distrust versus speculation: The drivers of cryptocurrency investments
Raphael Auer and David Tercero-Lucas (VoxEU) Oct 6, 2021
Some see cryptocurrencies as a potential substitute for fiat money and commercial banking, a new form of exchange resistant to debasement and censorship by governments and financial institutions. This column examines whether cryptocurrency investors are motivated by distrust in fiat currencies or regulated finance, and finds that investors show no differences from the general population in their level of security concerns about either cash or commercial banking services. Cryptocurrency investors tend to be educated and young and to be digital natives. In recent years, a gap in ownership of cryptocurrencies across genders has emerged.

Does Import Competition Harm Innovation? Evidence from Firm-level Data in China
Qing Liu, Ruosi Lu, Yi Lu, and Tuan Anh Luong (VoxChina) Oct 6, 2021
Twenty years ago, China’s entering the World Trade Organization (WTO) was a catalyst for its economic development and propelled China into becoming one of the most important economies in the world. But massive import tariff reductions allowed more import competition, which raised concerns that innovation would be curbed. Tuan Luong, from De Montfort University, and his co-authors, Qing Liu, Ruosi Lu, and Yi Lu, discuss the impacts of import competition on domestic innovation. We find that while import competition reduced innovation in China in general, the impact was differential across different types of innovation.

The International Role of the U.S. Dollar
Carol C. Bertaut, Stephanie E. Curcuru, and Bastian von Beschwitz (FEDS Notes) Oct 6, 2021
For most of the last century, the preeminent role of the U.S. dollar in the global economy has been supported by the size and strength of the U.S. economy, its stability and openness to trade and capital flows, and strong property rights and the rule of law. As a result, the depth and liquidity of U.S. financial markets is unmatched, and there is a large supply of extremely safe dollar-denominated assets. This note reviews the use of the dollar in international reserves, as a currency anchor, and in transactions.2 By most measures the dollar is the dominant currency and plays an outsized international role relative to the U.S. share of global GDP (see Figure 1). That said, this dominance should not be taken for granted and the note ends with a discussion of possible challenges to the dollar's status.

The bumpy ride to a new UK economic model
FT View Oct 7, 2021
Johnson government cannot rely on simply urging business to raise wages.

A Global Deal Aimed at Ending Tax Havens Gains Momentum
Alan Rappeport and Liz Alderman (NYT) Oct 7, 2021
Negotiators are coalescing around a 15 percent minimum tax rate, which could be announced at a Friday meeting.

Is the world economy going back to the 1970s?
Economist Oct 7, 2021
Despite some eerie echoes, the past is not the best guide to the present.

When It Comes to Public Finances, Credibility Is Key
Raphael Espinoza, Vitor Gaspar, and Paolo Mauro (IMF) Oct 7, 2021
Ending the health crisis and addressing its immediate fallout remains the top priority, but governments would also benefit from committing to fiscal responsibility.

Back to the 1970s? Political Risk Is Rising in Latin America for the Private Sector
Peter Schechter and Juan Cortiñas (BRINK) Oct 7, 2021
In Latin America, there is a “back to the future” feel to a lot of government policy in the region, harkening back to the 1970s when nationalists in the region made interventionism the policy du jour. Combine the desire to regulate all economic activity with the rise of social media and the reputational challenges this creates for companies, and you have an explosive cocktail.

International Travel Is Easier Than You Might Think
Brooke Sutherland (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 7, 2021
After a lengthy Covid-19 downturn, cross-border passenger air traffic is climbing steadily, and countries are allowing the vaccinated to move around freely.

Tariffs on China Are Destructive and They Are Here to Stay
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 7, 2021
The Biden administration knows how Trump’s trade strictures backfired on U.S. workers and businesses. But that doesn’t mean the policy will change.

A Second Chance for Global Development
Rebeca Grynspan (Project Syndicate) Oct 7, 2021
The COVID-19 crisis has generated global political momentum to alter the balance of power between the state and the market in macroeconomic management. Hopes of building back better now hinge on the emergence of a new policy paradigm to help guide a just transition to a decarbonized world.

Who's Afraid of Evidence-Based Policymaking?
Ori Heffetz and John A. List (Project Syndicate) Oct 7, 2021
Carefully designed scientific experiments have been an engine of economic, technological, and social progress for well over a century, which is why the public generally trusts such methods. Unfortunately, governments around the world still routinely oppose controlled trials of public policies.

The Bretton Woods Credibility Crisis
Anne O. Krueger (Project Syndicate) Oct 7, 2021
The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund play a critical role in the global economy precisely because their independent research is universally trusted. But following a scandal involving the World Bank's flagship report, urgent action is needed to regain the public's confidence.

Stagflation: 1970s Deja Vu?
Jay H. Bryson, Sarah House, and Hop Mathews (WF Econ Group) Oct 7, 2021
The term "stagflation", which essentially disappeared from the lexicon over the past few decades, is back in vogue again due to the recent jump in inflation. In this report, we discuss why we do not think the U.S. economy is about to embark on a 1970s-style period of stagflation.

Emerging markets need to get ahead of inflation
FT View Oct 8, 2021
Price pressures are greater and central banks less trusted to keep them under control.

The post-pandemic recovery may prove more complicated than it looks
John Plender (FT) Oct 8, 2021
A bad news pileup makes it hard to understand precisely where we are in a cycle hijacked by Covid-19.

Nuclear power can help fill the gaps in a tricky energy transition
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 8, 2021
ESG funds should reconsider their exclusion of the technology if we are to reduce our carbon emissions.

World Bank and IMF face fight for survival during US-China rivalry
Edward Luce (FT) Oct 8, 2021
The debate around Georgieva’s actions has huge geopolitical consequences for multilaterals.

Global Deal to End Tax Havens Moves Ahead as Nations Back 15% Rate
Alan Rappeport and Liz Alderman (NYT) Oct 8, 2021
More than 130 countries agreed to set a minimum tax rate of 15 percent as governments look to end a race to the bottom on corporate taxation.

Where Did All the Workers Go?
WSJ Oct 8, 2021
Bidenomics has led to a labor shortage that is hurting the economy.

The Global Tax Damage
WSJ Oct 8, 2021
Biden wants higher tax rates on U.S. firms than others will impose.

Why the economy keeps getting weirder
Megan McArdle(WaPo) Oct 8, 2021
The pandemic has created a bizarre labor shortage. And it's unclear how it will end.

Bad timing for an energy crisis in China
William Pesek (AT) Oct 8, 2021
There’s never a good time for an energy shock. But for Chinese President Xi Jinping, now is a devastating moment to grapple with shortages and big price spikes mirroring the 1970s. The sudden crunch has a few causes: technical speed bumps, a lack of investment, green-power enthusiasts getting ahead of their skis.

China marches on towards Fourth Industrial Revolution
David P. Goldman (AT) Oct 8, 2021
When Covid-19 hit China before it hit the rest of the world, the meme in the Western media called it China’s “Chernobyl moment.” China’s remarkable success in suppressing the pandemic put that to rest. But every hiccup in Chinese markets elicits new predictions of Chinese economic decline.

Sharing the Recovery: SDR Channeling and a New Trust
Ceyla Pazarbasioglu and Uma Ramakrishnan (IMF) Oct 8, 2021
Options to magnify the impact of the Special Drawing Rights Allocation through voluntary channeling.

What will drive the future of globalization?
Masood Ahmed and Nancy Lee (CGD) Oct 8, 2021
A host of factors, many unforeseeable, will determine the course of globalization. But it is useful to try to isolate the most important drivers and those that are already apparent. Here are five, encompassing economics, politics, and institutions.

It’s Tough Taking ESG Investors Too Seriously
Jared Dillian (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 8, 2021
An emerging-markets ETF that invests based on political, economic and civil freedoms and has outperformed should have no trouble attracting assets, but it does.

Noisy Jobs Report Sends Mostly Competing Signals
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 8, 2021
Lackluster employment gains could be due to Covid or deeper structural problems. Either way, lawmakers need to act with urgency.

Inflation Expectations Matter for Federal Reserve’s Clout
Allison Schrager (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 8, 2021
Faster price growth can become a self-fulfilling spiral and undermine the central bank’s credibility.

After “Doing Business”
Mauricio Cárdenas (Project Syndicate) Oct 8, 2021
Following its recent business-environment rankings scandal, the World Bank will have to overcome a deep trust deficit and take drastic steps to restore public confidence in its data. Any new efforts it undertakes in this area should meet four minimum criteria.

Will Corruption Threaten Europe's Economic Recovery?
Luis Garicano (Project Syndicate) Oct 8, 2021
The European Union’s recent agreement to issue joint debt to support post-pandemic economic recovery represents an unprecedented step toward deeper integration. But the success of the effort will depend on how the financial relief is allocated and monitored.

Cryptocurrencies' Next Stage
Aleh Tsyvinski (Project Syndicate) Oct 8, 2021
This “mainstreaming” of blockchain applications marks the end of the first stage of the technology’s development. Now, with the help of regulators in a range of countries, cryptocurrency is entering the next phase of its evolution: becoming an investable asset.

The Janus of Debt
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Oct 8, 2021
With the US again flirting with a default crisis as Republicans balk at raising the national debt ceiling, and with government debt levels everywhere reaching new highs following COVID-19, questions about the proper role of debt have returned. The truth seems to be that sustainability of government borrowing is as much about politics as economics.

Simpler approaches to a global tax plan
Simeon Djankov (VoxEU) Oct 8, 2021
More than 130 countries have lined up in favour of a global redesign of corporate taxes. The redesign calls for multinational giants to pay their ‘fair share’ of taxes rather than running off to tax havens. This column argues that as popular as this goal may be, finding practical ways to achieve it remains problematic. Simpler approaches have a better chance of succeeding.

An all-weather economic policy framework for the euro area
Ángel Ubide (VoxEU) Oct 8, 2021
The euro area’s economic policy framework was created in the early 1990s, when neutral interest rates were positive and the main risk was excessive inflation. This column argues that today’s world is very different from the 1990s, and thus requires a new economic policy framework where monetary and fiscal policy can work together effectively to support inflation and growth. The author identifies flaws in the current euro area fiscal framework and suggests how these could be fixed and complemented with a simple, state-contingent fiscal policy rule that achieves the right balance between supporting growth and inflation and ensuring debt sustainability.

Olaf Scholz’s Quiet Revolution in German Economics
Caroline de Gruyter (FP) Oct 8, 2021
A new generation of economists is changing the culture of German—and European—policymaking.

Russia is taking advantage of the energy squeeze
FT View Oct 9, 2021
Europe should step up efforts to diversify sources and suppliers.

The $1tn coin is a poor replacement for US treasuries
Brendan Greeley (FT) Oct 9, 2021
Platinum currency is a short-term tactic for the White House but not a long-term fix.

The worst of the supply chain crisis is over
John Dizard (FT) Oct 9, 2021
Data show that traffic through global ports is finally starting to ease as backlogs clear.

The world economy’s shortage problem
Economist Oct 9, 2021
Scarcity has replaced gluts as the biggest impediment to global growth.

Debate Looms Over I.M.F.: Should It Do More Than Put Out Fires?
Patricia Cohen (NYT) Oct 9, 2021
As the International Monetary Fund gets set for its annual meeting, economists ask if it’s time to update its mandate as the world’s financial crisis responder.

The Zambian Economist at the Crossroads of Global Business
David Gelles (NYT) Oct 9, 2021
Dambisa Moyo has the ear of top business leaders. But there are no simple answers to complex problems.

Supply-Chain Woes Could Spawn Some Unlikely Alliances
Brooke Sample (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 9, 2021
When delivering the goods gets tough, the tough start thinking strategically.

Why military purchasing power parity matters
Peter Robertson (VoxEU) Oct 9, 2021
US military spending is said to be greater than the next 11 countries combined. However, the conventional use of market exchange rates to compare across countries dramatically overstates US spending relative to other countries. This column introduces a military purchasing power parity exchange rate for 59 countries based on the relative unit cost ratio across counties. This ‘military PPP’ shows that the US military budget in 2019 was smaller than that of the next three largest military spenders – China, India, and Russia – combined.

Poverty and exposure to Covid-19: The role of income support
Ulugbek Aminjonov, Olivier Bargain, and Tanguy Bernard (VoxEU) Oct 9, 2021
In many countries, poorer people have been more exposed to Covid-19 as they cannot afford to stay at home instead of going to work. This column shows that in low- and middle-income countries, emergency income support schemes have significantly reduced differences in rates of contagion due to wealth or poverty status by allowing poorer people to also stay at home. As well as preserving livelihoods and alleviating poverty, income support has also been successful in curbing the spread of Covid-19.

There Is Shadow Inflation Taking Place All Around Us
Neil Irwin (NYT) Oct 10, 2021
Some companies haven’t been raising prices. Instead, they’ve been cutting back customer services and conveniences, but how should that be measured?

The Rich Have Found Another Way to Pay Less Tax
David Wessel (NYT) Oct 10, 2021
During his campaign, President Biden vowed to “reform opportunity zones to fulfill their promise,” but so far the administration hasn’t proposed anything. s

How to Get Cryptocurrency Regulation Right
Adam Szubin (WSJ) Oct 10, 2021
Companies that want to influence the inevitable rules for crypto businesses such as decentralized finance should engage with the government.

Antidumping duties, prices, and China
Gabriel Felbermayr and Alexander Sandkamp (VoxEU) Oct 10, 2021
The recent combination of resurging demand and continuing disruptions in supply chains has led to a worrying return of inflation. In the EU, industry producer prices increased by 12.2% year-on-year in July 2021. This column argues that removing EU antidumping duties would at least partially ease the pressure on input and consumer prices. In contrast, the recent abandonment of China’s differential treatment in the EU’s antidumping legislation might even have contributed to increasing import prices.

Traders at banks fear missing out on the crypto party
Eva Szalay (FT) Oct 11, 2021
Behemoths of traditional finance struggle to come up with a strategy for how to deal with digital currencies.

Is the Race to the Bottom Over?
Peter Coy (NYT) Oct 11, 2021
To crack down on tax havens, nations have agreed on a plan for a global minimum tax of 15 percent.

The City of London Is Hiding the World’s Stolen Money
Nicholas Shaxson (NYT) Oct 11, 2021
Together with its territories overseas, Britain is instrumental in a global game of deceit.

Oil Prices and Bad Policy
WSJ Oct 11, 2021
A Biden ban on oil exports would make the supply shortage worse.

A Victory Over the Jones Act
WSJ Oct 11, 2021
Fish suppliers win an injunction against arbitrary enforcement.

Thanks to sanctions, Iran loses foreign investors
Kourosh Ziabari (AT) Oct 11, 2021
Things are getting worse for the average Iranian as the Ebrahim Raisi administration continues to refuse to chart a clear path for the resumption of the stalled nuclear talks with world powers in Vienna. The removal of the daunting sanctions on Iran remains improbable, hastening the withdrawal of foreign investors who once helped prop up different sectors of the economy.

Making antitrust work for, not against, gig workers and the self-employed
Georgios Petropoulos (Bruegel) Oct 11, 2021
Policymakers should act to deal with labour-market concentration trends that potentially harm workers, especially gig workers and the self-employed.

IMF Agony Goes Way Beyond Georgieva’s Survival
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 11, 2021
The lender of last resort isn’t anymore, and suffers crises of identity as well as leadership. Big central banks are muscling it aside.

India’s Big Privatization Win Comes Two Decades Late
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 11, 2021
New Delhi finally offloads Air India onto the Tata Group, bringing a welcome end to a socialist experiment that destroyed a once-innovative carrier.

America Needs Higher, Longer-Lasting Inflation
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 11, 2021
The benefits of moderately rising prices and wages outweigh the costs.

What Developing Countries Need to Reach Net Zero
V. Shankar (Project Syndicate) Oct 11, 2021
One-size-fits-all policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions will not work. Unless developed countries recognize the challenges confronting developing and emerging economies and take appropriate steps to help them achieve net-zero emissions, we will all be worse off.

The Metamorphosis of Growth Policy
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Oct 11, 2021
Industrialization has been essential to reducing poverty historically. But today’s global and technological context implies that economic growth in developing countries is now possible only by raising productivity in smaller, informal firms that employ the bulk of the poor and lower-middle classes.

China's Loss Can Be Southeast Asia's Gain
Keun Lee (Project Syndicate) Oct 11, 2021
The pandemic-induced disruption of global supply chains has accelerated the exodus of manufacturing from China. Other countries in Asia, particularly South Korea and Vietnam, stand to benefit from this trend, and should take steps to encourage relocation and reshoring.

Global evidence on profit shifting: The role of intangible assets
Fotios Delis, Manthos Delis, Luc Laeven, and Steven Ongena (VoxEU) Oct 11, 2021
Profit shifting has come to the fore with the recently released Pandora Papers. This column uses a new global profit-shifting database covering 95 countries to show that profit shifting on average has gradually declined since 2011 following efforts from governments and international organisations to contain the practice, most notably the OECD’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting initiative. But firms across industries with high shares of intangible assets display an increase in profit shifting.

Globalisation and inflation: Insights from the ECB strategy review
Mirco Balatti, Juan Carluccio, Francesco Chiacchio, Nuno Coimbra, Susana Parraga, Daniele Siena, Sebastian Stumpner, Fabrizio Venditti, and Tina Žumer (VoxEU) Oct 11, 2021
Since the start of the pandemic, inflation has re-entered mainstream discussion. This column reviews the analysis of globalisation and inflation conducted in the context of the ECB strategy review. Although global factors (mainly commodity prices) matter for inflation synchronisation, their role in lowering both inflation and its sensitivity to the business cycle in advanced economies has been limited since the late 1980s. Global shocks can exert temporary pressure on price dynamics, but the destiny of inflation remains in the hands of central banks.

On the economic geography of climate change
Giovanni Peri and Frédéric Robert-Nicoud (VoxEU) Oct 11, 2021
Climate change is a defining challenge of our times. This column introduces a special issue of the Journal of Economic Geography on climate change, which provides foundations for well-informed policymaking by addressing two main themes of the economic geography of climate change. First, climate change yields heterogeneous effects across space. Second, a crucial aspect of human adaptation to climate change is geographic mobility. As a consequence, limitations to mobility will worsen the socioeconomic costs of climate change. Other margins of adjustment covered in the issue include fertility, specialisation, and trade.

Global Money Shifts to India as Xi Cracks Down on Tech
Bhaskar Chakravorti (FP) Oct 11, 2021
But the sudden flood of capital is not as good for India as it looks.

Schools must lay the foundations to bridge Africa’s skills gap
Aliko Dangote (FT) Oct 12, 2021
Governments and business have to work together, says Dangote Group’s CEO.

World’s Growth Cools and the Rich-Poor Divide Widens
Patricia Cohen and Alan Rappeport (NYT) Oct 12, 2021
The International Monetary Fund says the persistence of the coronavirus and global supply chain crisis weighs on economies.

Finding paths through a bumpy world
David P. Goldman (AT) Oct 12, 2021
“Consensus or conflict?” is a hard question to ask in the midst of a trade and technology war between the US and China. With a bi-partisan political consensus hostile to China, the Biden Administration has shown no inclination to walk back measures imposed by his predecessor. Likewise, it is hard to envision a significant change in the US stance during the next 12 months.

The IMF warns that the global economic recovery will be grossly uneven
Economist Oct 12, 2021
The economic prospects of most poor countries remain far worse than those of rich ones.

Uncertainty Grips Markets as Optimism Wanes
Tobias Adrian (IMF) Oct 12, 2021
Market sentiment has deteriorated since earlier this year amid still elevated financial vulnerabilities and mounting concerns about risks to inflation.

A Hobbled Recovery Along Entrenched Fault Lines
Gita Gopinath (IMF) Oct 12, 2021
The global recovery continues amid increasing uncertainty, more complex policy trade-offs.

The UK’s Planned Use of SDRs Will Take Resources Away From The Poor
Euan Ritchie (CGD) Oct 12, 2021
The phrase “giving with one hand while taking with the other” has never been more apt than when applied to the UK’s recent approach to aid.

What Does Globalization Look Like in a Post-Pandemic World?
Nicolas Lamp (BRINK) Oct 12, 2021
The global economy is emerging from the pandemic with global supply chains in disarray and companies struggling to source products from around the world. There is no longer a single narrative to describe globalization, but multiple. It's dangerous to rely on a single narrative and to design policies on the basis of that narrative.

Why the U.S. Housing Boom Isn’t a Bubble
Benjamin Keys (K@W) Oct 12, 2021
Why the red-hot U.S. real estate market isn’t a bubble that’s ready to burst. Home prices are likely to stay high for years to come.

Asia’s consumer map is being redrawn
Jeongmin Seong and Tiago Devesa (Brookings) Oct 12, 2021
Three key changes of perspective to understand the new consumption paths being trailblazed by Asia’s consumers.

Boris Johnson Is Flirting With a Trade War. He Shouldn’t.
Therese Raphael (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 12, 2021
The U.K. Prime Minister is courting a battle with Brussels over Northern Ireland. Escalation will be bad for both sides.

The Bank of England Risks Hiking Too Far Ahead of the Fed
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 12, 2021
Reacting to the wrong type of inflation and slamming the brakes on economic recovery could result in self-inflicted harm for the U.K.

Mexico’s Energy Grid Risks Fading to Black
Shannon K O'Neil (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 12, 2021
President Lopez Obrador’s plan to renationalize electricity generation will make it more expensive, dirtier and less reliable and jeopardize the inclusive economic growth he says he wants.

Supply-Chain Woes Add to Biden’s Burdens
Jonathan Bernstein (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 12, 2021
Unrealistic expectations confound every president. But they also create opportunities.

When Will China Blink and Stop the Evergrande Meltdown?
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 12, 2021
No country can deleverage in a deflationary environment. If home prices plummet any more, a bailout may be inevitable.

Can China’s Prosperity Promise Fix Real Problems?
Clara Ferreira Marques (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 12, 2021
For all the slogans, Beijing is right to worry about the gulf between the country’s richest and its poorest. It can start by tackling the world’s largest pension system.

Why Pandemic Nostalgia is Haunting Central Banks
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 12, 2021
When Covid arrived and economies tanked, officials knew what to do. Things are better now — and much harder to navigate, while the risks of a misstep are significant.

Public Development Banks Can Drive Sustainable Finance
Manish Bapna, Frannie Leautier, and Rémy Rioux (Project Syndicate) Oct 12, 2021
Public financing will be key to building a climate-resilient future, but its potential is often overlooked. An upcoming summit offers an opportunity for public development banks to expand their influence and take advantage of post-COVID stimulus.

Changing the Africa Population Narrative
Hippolyte Fofack (Project Syndicate) Oct 12, 2021
Africa’s emerging youth bulge presents more opportunities than risks. If governments and businesses train young people well and create sufficient opportunities for them to drive endogenous growth, the continent stands to reap a huge demographic dividend.

The Real Rot at the IMF
Jayati Ghosh (Project Syndicate) Oct 12, 2021
The “Doing Business” controversy has shaken confidence in the World Bank and the IMF. But it must not obscure the real problems with the Bretton Woods institutions: the disproportionate power of the US, the IMF’s deeply procyclical approach, and G7 economies’ unwillingness to enable multilateral bodies to address global problems.

China's Self-Destructive Tech Takedown
William R. Rhodes and Stuart P.M. Mackintosh (Project Syndicate) Oct 12, 2021
China’s leaders think that they can crack down on the country’s private technology sector and still deliver material progress as state-owned companies take over. But by reversing the policies that enabled decades of rapid growth, they risk imperiling the unique economic model they seek to sustain.

Simulating the future of global automation, its consequences, and evaluating policy options
Seth G. Benzell and Victor Yifan Ye (VoxEU) Oct 12, 2021
Despite clear economic benefits of new digital technologies, slow median wage growth has led many to worry that these new technologies are failing to deliver for the average worker. This column develops a new model of global automation and technological change to study the long-term consequences of these trends. It finds that automation can boost output and growth, but these benefits are not equally distributed across or within regions. Nevertheless, in developed countries smart fiscal policy, such as universal basic income, can make new technologies a win-win for all age and skill groups.

China's Corporate Credit Concerns Continue
Brendan McKenna and Jessica Guo (WF Econ Group) Oct 12, 2021
China's economy has experienced an increase in leverage over the past decade including, importantly, an increase in corporate leverage. While a corporate debt crisis in China has not materialized to date, recent developments related to Evergrande, one of China's largest property developers, suggest the likelihood has risen over the course of this year. At the same time, regulatory changes such as the push for "common prosperity" and the "three red lines" policy have escalated Evergrande's default risk. In our view, a default or disorderly collapse of Evergrande would have negative implications for China's real estate industry, and also for the broader Chinese economy. Furthermore, it is possible that Evergrande's financial problems may not be an isolated issue, as China's system-wide leverage—including its non-financial corporate debt levels—are quite elevated. That said, we believe elevated Chinese corporate debt is a vulnerability to China's economy and a moderate risk to the global economy, but not likely a problem that will cause the next Global Financial Crisis a-la 2008. We would not expect a collapse in China's real estate market, were it to occur, to prompt another Lehman Brothers moment. This is in part because China's external debt exposure is currently much lower than U.S. external debt exposures were prior to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Vaccinating poorer countries is vital to the recovery
FT View Oct 13, 2021
IMF warns uneven pace of immunisation raises risks of economic scarring.

Hopes and fears for the global Covid-19 recovery
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 13, 2021
As economies exit the pandemic, the job of central banks is relatively simple — less generous, better targeted assistance.

Xi Jinping gambles on economic tumult to cement his legacy
Tom Mitchell (FT) Oct 13, 2021
Chinese president sees Evergrande crisis and power crunch as chances to enact tough reforms.

G7 nations must co-operate rather than pulling up the drawbridge
Mark Sedwill (FT) Oct 13, 2021
A step-change in global economic governance is needed to mitigate risks and combat our authoritarian adversaries.

Now for the ‘hard part’ of achieving quality education for all
Lant Pritchett (FT) Oct 13, 2021
Getting more of the world’s children in school is the first step but how do we make it count?

A Stock Market Malaise With the Shadow of ’70s-Style Stagflation
Matt Phillips (NYT) Oct 13, 2021
After coasting higher over the summer, markets are jittery over rising prices, growth snarls and a number of other threats.

Private Equity Funds, Sensing Profit in Tumult, Are Propping Up Oil
Hiroko Tabuchi (NYT) Oct 13, 2021
These secretive investment companies have pumped billions of dollars into fossil fuel projects, buying up offshore platforms, building new pipelines and extending lifelines to coal power plants.

The Inflation Tax Rises
WSJ Oct 13, 2021
Real average hourly earnings have declined 1.9% since Biden’s inaugural.

Beijing’s Time for Evergrande Choosing
WSJ Oct 13, 2021
Strategic ambiguity is no solution for a major debt implosion.

How the Fed Finances U.S. Debt
Judy Shelton (WSJ) Oct 13, 2021
Look behind the federal books to see the ways monetary policy has come to abet runaway spending.

The promise of services-led development
Gaurav Nayyar, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Elwyn Davies (Brookings) Oct 13, 2021
The growth dividend of services.

Fiscal Policy for an Uncertain World
Vitor Gaspar, Sandra Lizarazo, Paulo Medas, and Roberto Piazza (IMF) Oct 13, 2021
The pandemic will leave a lasting mark on inequality, poverty, and government finances.

Wage Growth Is Great. The Long-Term Inflation It Creates Isn’t.
Conor Sen (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 13, 2021
Rapid increases in worker incomes are less likely to be temporary than other peculiarities of the pandemic, raising pressure on the Fed to respond.

Against China, a Better Trade Policy Is a Better Foreign Policy
Henry Brands (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 13, 2021
Under Biden and Trump, the U.S. has struggled to strengthen its commercial ties to the countries it must rally in global great-power rivalry.

Five Visions for a New International Order
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2021
The shift in global power to new (and more) actors has made the need to reform global institutions increasingly obvious. At last month's UN General Assembly meeting, world leaders advanced distinct approaches to the international order and its future.

A New Global Economic Consensus
Mariana Mazzucato (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2021
Now that the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the deficiencies of economic deregulation and market liberalization, a new policymaking paradigm is emerging. But its success depends on concrete reforms and the creation of new mission-driven institutions.

The search for a congruent euro area policy mix
Marco Buti and Marcello Messori (VoxEU) Oct 13, 2021
policy in the post-pandemic economy will define the resilience of the euro area in the face of future shocks and the transition to a more sustainable growth model. In a new CEPR Policy Insight, the authors argue that moving to a structured vertical coordination between national and EU budgets would help ensure an adequate fiscal stance and avoid the overburdening of the single monetary policy.

How Emerging Markets Hurt Poor Countries
C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh (BR) Oct 13, 2021
Financial globalization was supposed to spur development. Instead, it transfers money to the global North and exacerbates existing inequalities.

Making the most of the 2021 WTO ministerial: What the United States should do
Chad P. Bown, Thomas J. Bollyky, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, and Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE) Oct 13, 2021
The 12th Ministerial Conference (MC12) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), from November 30 to December 3, 2021, in Geneva, provides a major opportunity to articulate a US vision for the multilateral trading system, setting priorities for updating the WTO rulebook and refocusing the WTO dispute settlement on judging compliance with existing WTO obligations. This collection of essays by leading PIIE scholars offers recommendations on how the United States can help advance world trade reforms at MC12. To restore credibility to the rules-based trading system, the WTO needs to come up with firm plans to address the shared challenges its members face: (1) ensuring that the trading system speeds the production and flow of essential goods to fight the pandemic, including vaccines across borders; (2) addressing how trade measures can support carbon abatement commitments through new provisions covering green subsidies, energy regulations, and carbon taxes and border measures; and (3) advancing a plan to fix the dispute settlement process so that it can be used effectively to counter foreign subsidies and other discriminatory practices that harm workers, farmers, and companies doing business abroad or competing against unfair imports at home. To be credible, the global trading rules must be enforceable.

The perils of democratising private markets
Elif Aktug (FT) Oct 14, 2021
Retail investors face outsized risks without safeguards from regulators.

Adopting a global carbon price is essential
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (FT) Oct 14, 2021
A common approach to the cost of polluting is a fair and straightforward solution.

The sequencing trap that risks stagflation 2.0
Stephen Roach (FT) Oct 14, 2021
Today’s generation of central bankers is afflicted with the same sense of denial that proved problematic in the 1970s.

The real question about China for investors
Logan Wright (FT) Oct 14, 2021
Beijing’s policymaking process is the main issue, not political objectives.

What economic lessons Tokyo can learn from Seoul
William Pesek (AT) Oct 14, 2021
Japan’s new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may think he has a China problem on his hands. His troubles may actually be more about what’s afoot in South Korea. His rather unimaginative spin about “a new type of Japanese capitalism” has the bears marching back toward Tokyo and is merely a repeat of the strategy now failing in Seoul.

Is the sky really falling for private firms in China?
Tianlei Huang and Nicholas R. Lardy (PIIE) Oct 14, 2021
Chinese authorities are carrying out a sweeping regulatory crackdown on private technology firms this past year, wiping off hundreds of billions of dollars from the market capitalization of some of the largest private companies in China. Some Chinese private entrepreneurs are reportedly avoiding long-term investments amid rising uncertainty in the regulatory environment, jeopardizing prospects for innovation and productivity essential to China's future growth. Many analysts see Beijing's regulatory campaign as aimed less at curbing monopoly power and more at exerting greater control of the private sector, making it subservient to the party.[1] China's private sector is thus widely described as facing an existential threat. Whatever the motivation by China, the perception that China's private sector is imperiled is overblown. In fact, the Chinese internet companies subjected to this campaign are a small component of a large private sector that is still investing, growing, and outperforming the state sector.

Global Chip Hunger Is Showing Early Signs of Indigestion
Tim Culpan (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 14, 2021
There are indications that the world’s appetite for semiconductors could quickly lead to a glut that may be painful to clear when supply chains start rolling smoothly again.

It's a Very Bad Time to Be in Emerging-Market Debt
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 14, 2021
Emerging-market debt is being hit by a double whammy.

The IMF Doesn’t Need to Be More Democratic
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 14, 2021
The countries that call the shots at the fund would be less inclined to underwrite the system if it weren’t in their selfish interest to do so.

Building an Inclusive Recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean
Carlos Felipe Jaramillo , Otaviano Canuto, and Pepe Zhang (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic brought a halt to the expansion of Latin America’s middle class and pushed millions back into poverty. Reversing this pattern requires addressing the region’s vulnerability to economic shocks and strengthening countries’ resilience.

Will China Stand in the Way of Global Health?
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2021
As the current president of the G20, Italy has taken up a proposal to create a Global Health Board, modeled on the highly successful Financial Stability Board that was created in response to the 2008 financial crisis. By opposing the idea, China is showing that it isn't ready for global leadership.

Post-Pandemic Recovery Must Include the Care Economy
Mercedes D'Alessandro and Maria S. Floro (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2021
Unpaid labor like childcare and eldercare is not represented in economic models, although it makes up an important part of the economy. The pandemic has exposed this shortcoming, and the task now for economists and policymakers is to devise ways to value this labor appropriately and support it adequately.

Cautious Optimism on the Road to Glasgow
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2021
With the crucial United Nations COP26 climate-change summit fast approaching, recent positive developments in green-energy technologies provide grounds for hope. But two caveats point to the need to intensify multilateral cooperation.

Ageing and the real interest rate in Japan
Shigeru Fujita and Ippei Fujiwara (VoxEU) Oct 14, 2021
The Japanese economy has experienced a prolonged slowdown in growth and persistent declines in the real interest rate, while at the same time the country’s labour force has been rapidly ageing. This column explores a novel causal link between the ageing labour force and the low-frequency declining trend in the real interest rate since the 1970s, and suggests that the ageing of the labour force accounts for 40% or more of the declines in the real interest rate observed between the 1980s and 2000s in Japan.

ECB monetary policy and catch-up inflation
Lucile Crumpton and Ethan Ilzetzki (VoxEU) Oct 14, 2021
In July, the ECB issued its first Strategic Review since 2003. The latest CfM-CEPR survey investigates one component of the announced policy shift: the new definition of price stability. Most members of the panel of experts on the European economy support the ECB explicitly allowing inflation to exceed its target for extended periods to make up for below-target inflation in the past. This 60% majority has divided views on the optimal alternative policies, with the largest share supporting average inflation targeting and some members supporting nominal GDP targeting or hybrid policies. 40% of the panel would prefer to maintain the current policy of traditional inflation targeting.

Potential growth at risk - timely action is needed
Marc Schattenberg (DB Research) Oct 14, 2021
During the coming years, Germany’s potential growth rate will come under increasing pressure from demographic developments, it looks set to slow to just below ¾%. Shrinking potential growth will dampen cyclical resilience and tend to reduce debt sustainability. The new government should focus even more on potential growth. After all, it would be the great binding theme between the efficient and at the same time climate-friendly economy, demographics and the megatrend of digitalization. In the short term, rising energy expenses and the regulatory shortening of the useful life of machinery and equipment have a similar effect to a negative supply shock. If efforts to seize the opportunity for new investment and the installation of adequate replacements fail, the production-relevant capital stock would shrink, thus reducing potential growth.

Rising inflation pierces investor complacency
John Plender (FT) Oct 15, 2021
Something has to give in the unstable equilibrium of markets.

Stablecoin investors may be due a wake-up call
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 15, 2021
The critical attention being paid to companies such as Tether is a welcome development.

It’s not just the United States. Inflation is soaring around the world.
Henry Olsen(WaPo) Oct 15, 2021
World leaders will regret turning a blind eye to the problem.

How the Fed's Easy Money Spurred Today's Financial Frenzies
Joseph Solis-Mullen (Mises Wire) Oct 15, 2021
It was government policies that kick-started the engine of financial innovation, wrongly blamed by many in the press and left-leaning academia for this increased economic instability.

Another Day, Another Purge at Turkey’s Central Bank
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 15, 2021
A wave of firings at Turkey’s central bank is bad news for the lira and whatever shred of credibility the institution has left, as it swings between fighting inflation and stoking it on the president’s whim.

Ending Hunger Sustainably
Maximo Torero (Project Syndicate) Oct 15, 2021
Saving the planet does not have to come at the expense of feeding the poor, and vice versa. If governments can implement a series of relatively low-cost initiatives with private-sector support, the world can still wipe out global hunger by 2030 without jeopardizing the fight against climate change.

Trade and the Future of Food
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Project Syndicate) Oct 15, 2021
World Food Day offers an important opportunity to recall how vital a role trade plays in shaping the production, availability, pricing, and quality of that food. In fact, no effort to create a more equitable and sustainable food system will be complete without concerted global action on trade.

The Great Supply-Chain Massacre
Diane Coyle (Project Syndicate) Oct 15, 2021
It is unclear whether current widespread product shortages are merely a temporary disruption or evidence of a global production meltdown. But today’s supply shocks offer striking parallels with the 2008 global financial crisis, and may require a similarly bold policy response.

How ‘Stablecoins’ Could Unleash Chaos
Gary B. Gorton (Yale Insights) Oct 7, 2021
Dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies like Tether, Paxos, and Facebook’s Diem are rapidly proliferating; Tether, with a market cap approaching $70 billion, is now the third-largest cryptocurrency in the world. But without regulation, these so-called stablecoins pose serious risks to the U.S. financial system, argue Yale SOM’s Gary B. Gorton and his co-author.

Strengthening semiconductor manufacturing
Willem Thorbecke (VoxEU) Oct 15, 2021
During the COVID-19 pandemic many countries experienced difficulty obtaining the semiconductors that are vital for smartphones, computers, cars, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and many other applications. This column looks at how Asia gained comparative advantage in this sector and identifies lessons for countries seeking to promote domestic semiconductor manufacturing.

Wages are surging across the rich world
Economist Oct 16, 2021
What it means for the economic recovery.

Latin America’s economies have an opportunity to grow
Economist Oct 16, 2021
It would help if governments overcame their protectionist instincts.

Is the world economy entering a wage-price spiral?
Economist Oct 16, 2021
Both wage growth and inflation are unusually high.

Supply-Chain Stress May Have Peaked Already
Brooke Sutherland (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 16, 2021
There’s no easy fix for rising costs and bottlenecks, but things are finally trending in the right direction.

Renewable Energy Could Pay the Price for Fuel Crisis
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 16, 2021
Consumers’ discomfort with rising oil and gas prices doesn’t bode well for what might be a costly shift to solar and wind power.

Inequality is an urban affair, and it’s due to new tech
Jan Eeckhout, Christoph Hedtrich, and Roberto Pinheiro (VoxEU) Oct 16, 2021
The adoption of information technology can cause polarisation in the labour market via the displacement of routine cognitive jobs. This column uses data on over 200,000 firms in the US from 1990 to 2015 to show that the labour savings from IT are largest in big cities and metropolitan areas, where wages are higher, so urban firms have the biggest incentives to invest in these technologies. This in turn leads to the polarisation of occupations across geography and accounts for the rise in wage inequality within cities.

Supply chain lessons from Long Beach
Rana Foroohar (FT) Oct 17, 2021
What port delays tell us about the pre-pandemic problems of the global economy.

Millennials Pull Crypto Out of the Shadows in India
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 17, 2021
Not long ago there was a ban on banks dealing with virtual currencies. Now the industry itself wants to be regulated and is harnessing the power of Bollywood superstars to lift its profile.

Don’t Expect OPEC to Keep You Warm This Winter
Julian Lee (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 17, 2021
The oil producer group will remain cautious about boosting supply, fearing surpluses next year.

The Global Energy Drought May Herald a Future of Excess
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 17, 2021
In producing electricity, a buffer of waste is a good thing. In the renewable era, we’ll need that more than ever.

How the world stays open for business
Robert Salomon (FT) Oct 18, 2021
Globalisation has proved resilient to multiple serious threats. What keeps it afloat?

Developing economies risk falling off the convergence process
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Oct 18, 2021
Rising inflation and supply chain woes add to pressure on vulnerable countries.

‘Build Back Better’ Would Sink the Labor Market
Casey B. Mulligan and Vance Ginn (WSJ) Oct 18, 2021
The plan would tax those who produce and subsidize those who don’t—a poor recipe for growth.

China’s economic dominoes look worryingly wobbly
William Pesek (AT) Oct 18, 2021
The timing of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) miss could scarcely be worse as President Xi Jinping juggles a fast-growing number of economic challenges. News that GDP grew just 4.9% in the third quarter from a year ago comes as China Evergrande Group faces fresh debt payment tests and investors scrutinize other property developers.

Seoul maps out rich, post-Covid economic landscape
Andrew Salmon (AT) Oct 18, 2021
South Korea is gearing up its economic and investment policies to better enable the country to surmount the challenges of the post-Covid era – and to seize the opportunities that era will generate. This shifting tide was presented, in seminar format, by government officials and private sector players, to foreign reporters in Seoul on Friday.

A triple shock slows China’s growth
Economist Oct 18, 2021
Power cuts, the pandemic and a property slowdown: all have taken a toll.

Housing Prices Continue to Soar in Many Countries Around the World
IMF Oct 18, 2021
While most economic indicators deteriorated last year, house prices largely shrugged off the effects of the pandemic. Of the over 60 countries that enter into the IMF’s Global House Price Index, three-quarters saw increases in house prices during 2020, and this trend has largely continued in countries with more recent data.

What Xi Jinping Really Means by Common Prosperity
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 18, 2021
An essay by China’s president — who appears to feel he’s been misunderstood — lays out what his new socialist campaign is trying to accomplish.

China's Slowdown Pricks the Inflation Narrative
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 18, 2021
Anyone worried about surging price increases should consider the latest numbers from Beijing.

Accountability for Climate Catastrophes
Vinod Thomas (Project Syndicate) Oct 18, 2021
While the evidence linking greenhouse-gas emissions to climate change has been clear for some time, public engagement with the issue remains low. But showing the link between emissions and extreme weather could motivate more people to demand that governments and companies reduce the use of fossil fuels.

Central Banking With a Straight Face
Philip Turner (Project Syndicate) Oct 18, 2021
Over time, central banks have been given additional objectives and have expanded their policy toolkits accordingly, particularly when called upon to prevent major shocks from triggering global depressions. But with policy innovation comes new risks, not least to central banks’ independence.

Low rates and bank stability: The risk of a tipping point
Davide Porcellacchia (VoxEU) Oct 18, 2021
Policy rates in advanced economies are unusually low. This phenomenon has competing effects: low rates harm bank profits by squeezing interest margins, but also boost the value of long-term assets held by banks. Using a standard banking model, this column determines the policy rate level at which these two forces cancel out, or the ‘tipping point’. Past this tipping point, the net effect of low rates on bank capital is negative. Applying the model to the US economy, the tipping point in August 2007 is estimated as a policy rate of 0.55%.

Is the American Rescue Plan Taking Us Back to the ’60s?
Regis Barnichon, Luiz Oliveira, and Adam Shapiro (FRBSF Econ Letter) Oct 18, 2021
The American Rescue Plan provided fiscal support during a strong economic rebound, raising concerns about the risk of fueling inflation. One way to assess this risk of economic overheating uses the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, which measures labor market slack more accurately and, hence, can predict future inflation better than the unemployment rate alone. Estimates suggest that the fiscal plan acts to temporarily raise the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio, in turn pushing up inflation by about 0.3 percentage point per year through 2022.

America’s political and business elites no longer agree on China
Janan Ganesh (FT) Oct 19, 2021
While Washington stays vigilant, the corporate world sees new opportunity.

Bangladesh PM: We need a global ‘climate prosperity plan’ not empty pledges
Sheikh Hasina (FT) Oct 19, 2021
My country is investing for a zero-carbon future, but the world must commit at COP26 to make efforts like ours a success

Brussels eyes unilateral power to boost flexibility of budget rules
Martin Sandbu (FT) Oct 19, 2021
The EU is about to debate how to reform its fiscal rules after relaxing them during the height of the pandemic.

Lack of investment rigour risks creating an ESG bubble
Dambisa Moyo (FT) Oct 19, 2021
A trend of ‘demonstration investments’ can be counter-productive over the long term.

The Fed’s inflation machine: What would Volcker do?
Robert J. Samuelson(WaPo) Oct 19, 2021
The defeat of double-digit inflation (from 13 percent in 1980 to 1 percent in 1986) was a triumph of economic policy.

China’s destructive creation hits GDP growth
David P. Goldman (AT) Oct 19, 2021
The second great transformation of China’s economy is underway, and it won’t happen without some pain. China’s meager GDP growth of 4.9% in the third quarter is both worse and better than it looks. Net of exports, GDP growth would have fallen to around 1%, mainly due to the air pocket in the property sector that comprises a quarter of GDP.

Long-run fiscal challenges dwarf COVID’s fiscal legacy
Yvan Guillemette (OECD Ecoscope) Oct 19, 2021
The decline in economic activity associated with caution, lockdowns and other restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic brought government revenue down substantially in 2020 across the OECD. Governments have appropriately responded with a range of temporary programmes to support workers and businesses, simultaneously raising expenditure. Consequently, fiscal positions have deteriorated sharply and gross government debt in the OECD is projected to be around 20-25 percentage points of GDP higher in 2022 than it would have been absent the pandemic.

Global Food Supply Chains Are Being Overwhelmed
Richard Wilding and Emel Aktas (BRINK) Oct 19, 2021
Food retailers and consumers have become used to a settled landscape; a well-oiled system that brings us Chilean blueberries, sugar snap peas from Zambia and roses from Kenya. Hidden behind the haze of food supply “magic” is the reality of increasingly pressured resources relying on global flows of container shipping and air freight.

Don’t Blame India For Blocking the WTO
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 19, 2021
What’s really holding up a long-awaited global agreement to curb fishing subsidies is a widespread lack of trust — and the U.S. needs to make the first move to restore it.

Economy Has Plenty of Offramps Before Stagflation City
Nir Kaissar (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 19, 2021
Inflation is accelerating faster than real growth, but that’s not unusual historically, and it doesn’t necessarily mean the trend will continue.

The Case Against Economic Sanctions
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Oct 19, 2021
It is highly doubtful whether the increasing use of economic sanctions in international politics is just, expedient, or effective. And when proponents of these punitive measures claim that commerce is possible only between civilized people, they ignore the civilizing effect of commerce itself.

The Possibility of Polexit
Slawomir Sierakowski (Project Syndicate) Oct 19, 2021
By manufacturing a constitutional court ruling that effectively rejects the legal basis of EU membership, Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party may have finally bitten off more than it can chew. Sadly, whatever happens next, all Poles are likely to bear the costs of the government’s brinkmanship.

Central bank digital currency in an historical perspective
Michael Bordo (VoxEU) Oct 19, 2021
Monetary transformations through history have been driven by changing technology, changing tastes, economic growth, and the demands to effectively satisfy the functions of money. This column argues that technological change in money and finance is inevitable, driven by the financial incentives of a market economy, and identifies four key lessons central banks could learn from history to enable them to provide digital currency to effectively fulfil their public mandates.

The international dimension of central bank digital currencies: Open research questions
Massimo Ferrari, Arnaud Mehl, Fabio Panetta, and Ine Van Robays (VoxEU) Oct 19, 2021
Central banks around the world are weighing the pros and cons of issuing their own digital currency. This column identifies open research questions around the international macro-financial dimension of central bank digital currencies, including what is different about them, and what the implications for international central bank cooperation are. Addressing these questions would not only push the frontier of knowledge, it would also provide the conceptual backbone and evidence that could usefully inform future policy decisions on CBDCs.

Africa’s Youth Unemployment Crisis Is a Global Problem
Audrey Donkor(WaPo) Oct 19, 2021
Governments and donors must stop focusing solely on skills development and entrepreneurship—or risk more youth migration, unrest, and terrorism.

Stock market indices cannot be murky x
FT View Oct 20, 2021
Discretion may have a role in forming benchmarks, but clarity is essential.

COP26: Why companies must broaden the emissions fight through supply chains x
Peggy Hollinger (FT) Oct 20, 2021
Business needs to tackle its impact on environment from raw materials to what happens to products.

Steel markets follow the same path as fossil fuels
George Cheveley (FT) Oct 20, 2021
Curtailed investment in steel sector has tightened supply at a time when demand is booming.

COP26 is the real thing and not a drill
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 20, 2021
The path to a new energy economy is clear, but it is technically and politically difficult.

US still sees India as ‘challenging’ for business
Anil Sharma (AT) Oct 20, 2021
India remains a “challenging place” to do business despite actively courting foreign investment, according to a recently released report by the US State Department. That perception is hurting the potential for India to benefit from ongoing US economic “decoupling” from China, where many multinational corporations have sought to move their factories to alternative Asian nations.

Europe’s Post-Pandemic Economic Challenges
Alfred Kammer (IMF) Oct 20, 2021
Getting fiscal policy right will be harder than dealing with inflation.

China’s tech crackdown affects only a small share of its digital economy and total GDP
Tianlei Huang and Nicholas R. Lardy (PIIE) Oct 20, 2021
Chinese authorities have been reining in some of the country's biggest internet companies, stirring concern about what could be a threat to China's robust private sector. But China's large private sector is more than just internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and JD.com. In 2020, only 11 internet companies were among the 500 largest private firms by revenue, according to the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce.[1] Internet companies account for only 7 percent of the aggregate revenues of the top 500 but 20 percent of the aggregate net profits, reflecting their strong market power.

The World Needs a Plan for Stranded Assets
Bloomberg View Oct 20, 2021
Fighting climate change involves financial and economic risk. Governments and investors must do more to prepare.

China's Property Tax Has Look of a Death Foretold
Matthew Brooker (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 20, 2021
It was predictable that the plan would run into resistance, with the industry already reeling from the Evergrande fallout.

The U.K. Bank Tax Cut That Won’t Make Anyone Happy
Paul J. Davies (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 20, 2021
Chancellor Sunak announces a reduced surcharge but he (and Boris Johnson) need to do much more than that to keep services from moving to Europe.

ASEAN Countries Must Lead on Biodiversity
Tony La Viña (Project Syndicate) Oct 20, 2021
Southeast Asia is one of the world’s most biodiverse regions, and it is also highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Policymakers in the region must ensure that plans to preserve nature while promoting sustainable economic growth are part of the post-pandemic recovery.

The World Bank as a Cash-Transfer Algorithm
Arvind Subramanian and Justin Sandefur (Project Syndicate) Oct 20, 2021
Following its underwhelming response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the damaging “Doing Business” scandal, the World Bank should focus on getting money to poor countries. Here, the Bank can distinguish itself by providing governments with both concessional loans and untied aid.

What the US Recovery Is Missing
Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendoca (Project Syndicate) Oct 20, 2021
Although the US economy has recovered faster than many others around the world, persistent labor-market problems lurk beneath the surface. The deep class-, race-, and gender-based inequalities laid bare by the pandemic are getting worse, demanding concerted action by policymakers.

Does ESG Travel around the World? Evidence from Multinational Firms in China
Dongxu Li and Xiaoxue Hu (VoxChina) Oct 20, 2021
Using a sample of 3,770 Chinese listed firms during 2015–2020, we find that firms’ ESG ratings increase with foreign sales ratios. The higher-rated multinationals have more foreign subsidiaries located in countries with better ESG conditions, and their equity shares are held to a greater extent by institutional investors, especially by foreign institutions. The multinationals’ higher ESG ratings can be justified by higher expenditures on green investment and superior access to green credits. Our analysis suggests that international business can help promote the ESG performance for firms in emerging markets.

Climate Change Costs Rise as Interest Rates Fall
Michael D. Bauer and Glenn D. Rudebusch (FRBSF Econ Letter) Oct 20, 2021
Climate change—including higher temperatures and more extreme weather—will cause economic damage and financial losses for many generations to come. To properly assess these future costs, they must be discounted to produce comparable values in today’s dollars. The discount rates required for this assessment are influenced by the long-run equilibrium real interest rate, which has declined notably since the 1990s. Accounting for a persistently lower real rate increases the present discounted future costs of climate change and supports stronger policies to help stop further climate change.

BoE: T-Minus 15 Basis Points and Counting
Nick Bennenbroek (WF Econ Group) Oct 20, 2021
U.K. inflation eased slightly in September, although that will likely prove to be a temporary lull given the recent rise in energy prices and signs that underlying wage growth is firming. Expect a further quickening of CPI inflation in months ahead. In contrast, economic growth has been somewhat uneven and could remain so for the time being. By themselves, growth and inflation trends don't offer an open-and-shut case for an imminent rate hike. However, in the context of increasingly hawkish comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers, we think today's CPI will be enough for a November interest rate lift-off, and a gradual pace of rate hikes thereafter. We expect a 15 bps hike November, followed by a 25 bps hike in May 2022 and a further 25 bps hike in November 2022. Our forecast is for BoE monetary tightening is more gradual than currently anticipated by market participants. As a result the pound could face some downside for now, and there may also be some mild downside risk to our forecast of GBP/USD appreciation over the medium-term.

Age of Transformation
Joachim Fels, Andrew Balls, and Daniel J. Ivascyn (PIMCO) Oct 20, 2021
Three transformative trends will lead the world into a radically different macro environment over the secular horizon. Read our long-term outlook and implications to consider when investing.

Demographic trends that can guide your investments
Simon Edelsten (FT) Oct 21, 2021
14m baby-boomers heading towards retirement is a good reason to look at healthcare.

DeFi is a reminder of the risks of unfettered financial engineering
Eswar Prasad (FT) Oct 21, 2021
While they rely on libertarian ideals of self-governance, nascent blockchain systems are vulnerable.

The revenge of the old economy x
Jeff Currie (FT) Oct 21, 2021
Periods of commodity price pressure will reoccur as broad-based demand meets inadequate infrastructure.

Yellen’s Global Tax Railroad
WSJ Oct 21, 2021
She wants to use an OECD pact to coerce Congress to go along.

The Monetary Bathtub Is Overflowing
John Greenwood and Steve H. Hanke (WSJ) Oct 21, 2021
Many economists say inflation is transitory. It will be persistent.

We’re headed for a global energy crisis. What we need is a transition strategy.
Fareed Zakaria (WaPo) Oct 21, 2021
We need to cut emissions today while keeping energy flowing.

Post-Covid economic recovery has already peaked
William Pesek (AT) Oct 21, 2021
China’s growth downshift in the July-September period may confirm virtually every economist’s worst fear: that the supposed post-Covid-19 rebound has already peaked. Gross domestic product (GDP) reports from the globe’s largest trading nation tend to flag zigs in the global economy where analysts had expected zags.

Surging Energy Prices May Not Ease Until Next Year
Andrea Pescatori, Martin Stuermer, and Nico Valckx (IMF) Oct 21, 2021
Energy futures indicate that prices are likely to moderate in the coming months.

The Risks and Opportunities of Private Debt
Evan Gunter (Project Syndicate) Oct 21, 2021
Direct lending is attracting attention from both private and institutional investors thanks to its steady performance and appealing returns. But the overall size and composition of this market is already difficult to assess, and the addition of new players could make it even harder to track the level of risk for both lenders and borrowers.

The Inflation Catch-Up Game
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Oct 21, 2021
As price increases accelerate, policymakers at leading central banks are slowly starting to move away from the narrative of “transitory” inflation that has already cost them the policy initiative. But the needed pivot is far from complete and not nearly quick enough, particularly at the US Federal Reserve.

China Must Restore Growth
Yu Yongding (Project Syndicate) Oct 21, 2021
It is imperative that China’s leaders address financial-system vulnerabilities, especially the corporate sector’s high leverage ratio. But it is even more important that they take action to counter a persistent slowdown in economic growth.

The Scissors Gap
Rebecca E. Karl (LRB) Oct 21, 2021
How China Escaped Shock Therapy: The Market Reform Debate.

A new German economic era dawns as the Bundesbank changes guard
Christian Odendahl (FT) Oct 22, 2021
Global tensions have convinced politicians that an economically strong and united Europe is more important than a balanced budget.

Lira reels as Turkey tests investors once more
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Oct 22, 2021
As the world moves to increase rates, central bank slashes them.

The World Bank needs a new age of transparency
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 22, 2021
Recent controversies point to the importance of scrutiny and credibility in getting critical work done.

Bank regulators seek better way to ride out a crisis
Laura Noonan (FT) Oct 22, 2021
Capital buffers for lenders did not work as well as expected during the pandemic stress.

How the Supply Chain Broke, and Why It Won’t Be Fixed Anytime Soon
Peter S. Goodman (NYT) Oct 22, 2021
Confession: We didn’t even have a logistics beat before the pandemic. Now we do. Here’s what we’ve learned about the global supply chain disruption.

Dodging the Constitution for a Global Tax
WSJ Oct 22, 2021
Treasury plans to adopt a new treaty without a proper Senate vote.

Is China in Big Trouble?
Paul Krugman (NYT) Oct 22, 2021
Doomsayers have been wrong before, but this time may be different.

Why the supply chain crunch will continue into 2022
Daniel Yergin and Peter Tirschwell (WaPo) Oct 22, 2021
The problems are too deep-seated to be dented by a "90-day sprint." They'll last deep into 2022.

At the cross-roads of a low-carbon transition: what can we learn from the current energy crisis?
Laurence Boone and Assia Elgouacem (OECD Ecoscope) Oct 22, 2021
The OECD has long since highlighted the importance of policy alignment and how a comprehensive, inclusive and cost-effective strategy to address climate change will require bringing in complementary policy areas and exploiting synergies among them.

What’s Fueling Bitcoin's Ride? It’s More FOMO Than Inflation
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 22, 2021
For that reason, regulators need to be on their guard.

Supply Chain Disruption? More Like Supply Chain Overload
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 22, 2021
The stresses on the global economy are caused mainly by an increase in demand, especially from the U.S.

Manufacturers Don’t Have a Demand Problem Yet
Brooke Sutherland ( Oct 22, 2021
Supply-chain snarls are pinching margins and thwarting companies’ efforts to fill orders, but customers are still buying.

China's Journey into the Unknown
George Magnus (Project Syndicate) Oct 22, 2021
With a wave of regulatory and other actions against leading private-sector firms, Chinese President Xi Jinping clearly intends to re-establish the Communist Party’s ultimate control over all aspects of Chinese life. Yet that effort may well kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.

A New Vision for Global Cooperation
María Fernanda Espinosa (Project Syndicate) Oct 22, 2021
UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s proposed 2023 Summit of the Future should be welcomed when the General Assembly convenes again on October 25 to discuss Guterres’s “Our Common Agenda” recommendations. The summit might be the last best chance to reform the UN to keep pace with today’s interconnected global challenges.

The Revenge of Supply
John H. Cochrane (Project Syndicate) Oct 22, 2021
Policymakers should not have been caught off guard by surging prices and shortages of goods and labor. Practically the entire post-pandemic agenda is built around policies that stoke demand and discourage work, making supply-side constraints entirely predictable.

A policy triangle for Big Techs in finance
Erik Feyen, Jon Frost, Leonardo Gambacorta, Harish Natarajan, and Matthew Saal (VoxEU) Oct 23, 2021
Big Techs’ expansion into financial services can bring competition, efficiency, and inclusion, particularly in emerging market and developing economics. But it also gives rise to issues concerning a level playing field with banks, operational risk, too-big-to-fail issues, as well as challenges for antitrust rules and consumer protection. This column presents a policy triangle that highlights the trade-offs between three objectives: financial stability, competition, and data privacy. Handling these challenges requires more coordination on rules and standards, both between domestic authorities and across international borders.

Fumio Kishida should keep the best of Abenomics
FT View Oct 24, 2021
New Japanese prime minister needs to turn his sunny vision into a practical plan.

Germany and Europe face the same challenges in upending fiscal status quo
Martin Sandbu (FT) Oct 24, 2021
All partners have to grasp this chance to support drastic improvements in EU economic policy.

Powell tries to be ‘plausible’ as prices soar
David P. Goldman (AT) Oct 24, 2021
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spent the first nine months of 2021 insisting that inflation wasn’t there, and if it was there, it was “transitory.” On Friday, Powell said in a virtual panel discussion moderated by Bloomberg that “our policy is well-positioned to manage a range of plausible outcomes.” Equity markets fell.

The G20 needs to do more than recycle the G7’s agenda
Adam Triggs (EAF) Oct 24, 2021
The advantage of the G20 over other international groupings is the breadth of its membership, incorporating the major developing and developed nations. The most pressing issues facing the G20 are ones that spill across national borders.

The pandemic stimulus has backfired in emerging markets
Ruchir Sharma (FT) Oct 25, 2021
Aggressive monetary and fiscal intervention added nothing discernible to developing countries’ recovery.

The dangerous private capital party
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Oct 25, 2021
The rush into shadowy markets is understandable, but many investors will probably rue their recklessness eventually.

EU recovery fund: can Spain transform its economy?
Daniel Dombey and Ben Hall (FT) Oct 25, 2021
Madrid’s plans are a crucial test of the €800bn fund. Success could herald a more integrated and stable eurozone

The Democrats’ Wealth-Tax Mirage
WSJ Oct 25, 2021
Their last fiscal resort is taxing unrealized capital gains of ‘billionaires.’

America Inc and the shortage economy
Economist Oct 25, 2021
Three things to look for from the upcoming earnings season.

Longer Delivery Times Reflect Supply Chain Disruptions
Parisa Kamali and Alex (Shiyao) Wang (IMF) Oct 25, 2021
Supply chain disruptions have become a major challenge for the global economy since the start of the pandemic. Shutdowns of factories in China in early 2020, lockdowns in several countries across the world, labor shortages, robust demand for tradable goods, disruptions to logistics networks, and capacity constraints have resulted in big increases in freight costs and delivery times.

Why Global Leadership is Key to International Development
Rachael Calleja, Mikaela Gavas and Samuel Pleeck (CGD) Oct 25, 2021
This piece argues that global development leadership is faltering, yet remains necessary for advancing an equitable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, tackling global challenges, and driving progress towards the sustainable development agenda. We suggest that as traditional forums for leadership fail to make progress, informal groups provide an opportunity to advance common interests.

Mystical Hold of ‘Transitory’ Tempts Huge Fed Error
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 25, 2021
Failure to respond quickly and fully to persistent inflation would constitute the biggest monetary policy mistake in more than 40 years.

Erdogan Feasts on Chaos While the Lira Suffers
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 25, 2021
The Turkish president’s diplomatic broadsides come at a perilous time for the currency, which is already weakened by big rate cuts. It isn't too late to change course.

The G20's Pandemic Wake-Up Call
Masood Ahmed (Project Syndicate) Oct 25, 2021
G20 leaders must recognize that pandemics are a national and global security threat, and expend some political capital to shift the international health-security machinery from its current equilibrium. Their forthcoming summit in Rome is the right moment to establish a new vision of global public health.

High Oil Prices Can Help the Environment
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Oct 25, 2021
As the northern winter draws closer, surging fossil-fuel prices have left many consumers worried. But there may be a silver lining in the form of more aggressive US efforts to tackle climate change – provided the political will for such measures exists.

Should You Buy a Home in the US?
Robert J. Shiller (Project Syndicate) Oct 25, 2021
Even at currently elevated US home-price levels, buying still makes sense for those who are set on ownership. But buyers need to be sure that they can accept what could be a rather bumpy and disappointing long-term path for home values.

The plant-level view of an industrial policy: The Korean heavy industry drive of 1973
Minho Kim, Munseob Lee, and Yongseok Shin (VoxDev) Oct 25, 2021
Korea’s promotion of heavy and chemical industries would have been more successful if it had not come with a rise in concentration and misallocation

What may happen when central banks wake up to more persistent inflation?
Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan (VoxEU) Oct 25, 2021
The current mini-surge in inflation is forecast to return to central bank targets towards the end of 2022, or shortly thereafter. However, there is also a risk of inflation remaining persistently high for longer. This column discusses the implications of such a contingency for central banks and monetary policy. The authors warn that sudden policy reversals could lead to severe downturns in financial markets and significantly damage public sector balance sheets. Instead, they call on central banks to develop concrete plans for dealing with persistently higher inflation, with a particular focus on their balance sheet policies in a world of rising nominal interest rates.

The Korean heavy industry drive of 1973
Minho Kim, Munseob Lee, and Yongseok Shin (VoxEU) Oct 25, 2021
Industrial policy has divided economists for decades. This column evaluates Korean government's policy of promoting heavy and chemical industries in the 1970s, using plant-level output and productivity data. It shows that output and input use of targeted industries/regions grew significantly faster than those of non-targeted ones. However, total factor productivity did not increase because the misallocation of resources across plants within targeted industries/regions got significantly worse.

Subsidies and market access: New data and findings from the Global Trade Alert
Simon Evenett and Johannes Fritz (VoxEU) Oct 25, 2021
Corporate subsidies are a major source of controversy in the world trading system, exacerbated by a lack of comparable and reliable information on subsidy schemes and awards. The latest Global Trade Alert report assembles an inventory of 18,137 corporate subsidies awarded by China, the EU, and the US since November 2008 to demonstrate that the cumulative effect of thousands of largely under-the-radar screen corporate subsidies has taken its toll on the competitive conditions faced by foreign manufacturers seeking to sell into the markets of China, the EU, and the US, and in third markets.

Why Jay Powell has been a ‘dangerous man’ at the Fed
Dennis Kelleher (FT) Oct 26, 2021
Central bank chair’s support for deregulation has weakened the financial system.

I see no financial obstacles to getting to net zero by 2050
Jeffrey Sachs (FT) Oct 26, 2021
With COP26 looming, the expert in sustainable development explains how we can have both decarbonisation and robust growth.

Tesla and Elon Musk offer a case study in the billionaire tax’s complications
David Von Drehle (WaPo) Oct 26, 2021
There are reasons the so-called wealth tax, tried in other countries, hasn’t lived up to expectations.

Seven Charts that Show Sub-Saharan Africa at a Crucial Point
Abebe Aemro Selassie and Habtamu Fuje (IMF) Oct 26, 2021
After an unparalleled contraction in 2020, sub-Saharan Africa is set to grow by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022.

Needed—A Global Approach to Data in the Digital Age
Vikram Haksar, Yan Carrière-Swallow, Kathleen Kao, and Gabriel Quirós-Romero (IMF) Oct 26, 2021
Global principles on data policy can help level the playing field while addressing financial stability and inclusion, competition, and privacy.

How Broken Is the Supply Chain? Industrial CEOs Weigh In
Brooke Sutherland (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 26, 2021
Logjams and inflation are key topics on the earnings calls of GE, 3M, Lennox and Raytheon.

The True Costs of Government Spending
Michael J. Boskin (Project Syndicate) Oct 26, 2021
While all politicians exaggerate, US President Joe Biden’s claim that his proposed $3.5 trillion spending package “costs zero dollars” rises to a higher plane, and Americans aren’t buying it. Even if the legislation was fully covered by tax increases, the costs for the economy would be significant.

The G20 Family Reunion
Paola Subacchi (Project Syndicate) Oct 26, 2021
Relationships among leaders have historically been what drives progress at the G20, despite struggles to agree on specific commitments or language. But, between virtual meetings and US-China tensions, those relationships have become strained, and repairing them must be a top priority at the group's upcoming Rome summit.

Clean Energy Has Won the Economic Race
Jules Kortenhorst (Project Syndicate) Oct 26, 2021
For decades, spectacularly inaccurate forecasts have underestimated the potential of clean energy, buying time for the fossil-fuel industry. But as two new analyses from authoritative institutions show, renewables have already convinced the market and are now poised for exponential growth.

A Bottom-Up Approach to Education Reform
Miroslav Beblavy and Sona Muzikarova (Project Syndicate) Oct 26, 2021
The global economy is undergoing a digital transformation, but educational systems are lagging in providing the skills students need for the careers of the future. Where should governments turn to develop the programs needed to expand digital literacy and strengthen critical thinking?

Oil price shocks and conflict escalation: Location matters
Andrea Tesei, Jørgen Juel Andersen, and Frode Martin Nordvik (VoxEU) Oct 26, 2021
Violent conflict often centres around the control of critical resources, including fossil fuels such as oil. This column explores how the location of oil reserves can affect the likelihood of a particular tension descending into widespread civil violence or war. Using a Norwegian data set, the authors show that the presence of onshore oil has a greater effect than offshore oil in driving conflict. Where a resource is relatively straightforward to access (i.e. on land as opposed to out at sea), rebel groups will be more easily able to reap the benefits of taking control through violence.

International Economic Outlook: October 2021
Nick Bennenbroek, Brendan McKenna, and Jessica Guo (WF Econ Group) Oct 26, 2021
The global economy continues to face a flurry of issues. COVID-related growth disruptions have been persistent, while regulatory changes and property sector challenges have weighed on China's economy. As the Northern Hemisphere heads into the winter and holiday months, another wave of COVID infections seems quite likely, while issues in China will likely linger for the time being. Against this backdrop, the outlook for the global economy has softened, and we think risks around our global growth forecast remain tilted to the downside. Even though growth prospects have slowed, inflation expectations continue to rise. We can point to supply chain disruptions and higher commodity prices as drivers of price pressures, and expect these rising inflation pressures to result in further monetary tightening from central banks around the world. However, while we agree on the direction of monetary policy, we believe financial markets may be expecting foreign central banks to normalize monetary policy at too quick of a pace, especially the Bank of England. Our forecast for a stronger U.S. dollar through the end of this year remains intact; however, we believe there is increasing scope for a resilient greenback into 2022 as country-specific factors and fundamentals evolve in a way that could be conducive to foreign currency weakness. As financial markets reprice monetary policy expectations abroad and the Fed tapers asset purchases in 2022, foreign currencies could weaken. In addition, local political developments across the emerging markets could result in idiosyncratic events weighing on emerging market currencies throughout next year and also contribute to broad U.S. dollar strength.

Embrace high fossil fuel prices because they are here to stay
Amrita Sen (FT) Oct 27, 2021
Rising energy costs are needed to help curb demand making the transition to a cleaner world easier.

How to hedge — with care — against a market correction
David Stevenson (FT) Oct 27, 2021
Short and leveraged trackers can provide some short-term protection.

Pastries and Persuasion: How a Global Tax Deal Got Done
Alan Rappeport (NYT) Oct 27, 2021
Over Zoom calls from basements and a breakfast in Brussels, faltering negotiations to remake the world’s tax architecture were revived.

Protectionism Is Immoral, Unjust, and Corrupt
James Bovard (Mises Wire) Oct 27, 2021
If a businessman pulls a gun on a customer and demands 20 percent more for a product, that is robbery. If a politician intervenes to the same effect, it is fair trade.

Joint Action Needed to Secure the Recovery
Kristalina Georgieva (IMF) Oct 27, 2021
G20 should lead in sharing vaccine doses, helping developing countries financially, and committing to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by mid-century.

Too Much Aid Is Going to Rich Countries—and Donor Officials Don’t Seem to Know It
Ranil Dissanayake and Bernat Camps Adrogué (CGD) Oct 27, 2021
ODA is not concentrated in the poorest places.

Three Reasons Inflation Isn’t Here to Stay
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 27, 2021
The Federal Reserve’s institutional and political credibility depends on bringing inflation down — and the market is counting on it, too.

The Bond Market Needs Just One Thing from Lagarde
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 27, 2021
It wants inflation and interest rate fears calmed. The ECB president has to find the right words to do it.

The Inflation Fight Could Easily Go Too Far
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 27, 2021
Raising rates isn’t a silver bullet and could risk new headaches. Central banks may wind up with a different kind of credibility crisis on their hands.

Restoring Citizens' Trust on Climate Change
Werner Hoyer (Project Syndicate) Oct 27, 2021
A recent survey of public opinion in Europe, Britain, the United States, and China finds that most people consider climate change to be the defining issue of this century and expect their governments to do more to address it. Policymakers must respond with massive investments in the green economy before fatalism sets in.

Tax the Rich!
Peter Singer (Project Syndicate) Oct 27, 2021
The opening of the global economy over the past 30 years enriched multinational corporations, which have been able to shift profits to wherever the corporate tax rate is lowest. The G20 can take one step toward remedying that by accepting the proposed 15% minimum rate, but it should go much further.

Inflation Outlook: the Macro, the Micro, the Transitory
AQR Oct 27, 2021
Financial markets have had a relatively muted reaction to the recent bout of higher than expected inflation. We assess what might explain markets’ sanguine response. We explain why we believe there are factors suggesting a return to low inflation readings is unlikely in the near term, and what the investment implications might be of such a scenario.

Nordic Countries Aren’t Actually Socialist
Nima Sanandaji (FP) Oct 27, 2021
Denmark, Norway, and Sweden shouldn’t be held up as socialist utopias.

Foreign Aid Won’t Moderate the Taliban
Haley Swedlund, Romain Malejacq and Malte Lierl (FP) Oct 27, 2021
International assistance isn’t the political lever many hope it will be.

Turkey’s Opposition Can End the Country’s Economic Crisis
Umit Ozlale (FP) Oct 27, 2021
A broad, ideologically diverse coalition has the plans and people to turn things around.

Accelerating the electric vehicle transition
Jessica Alsford (FT) Oct 28, 2021
Shift is going to be determined by availability of commodities as well as related infrastructure.

Cryptocurrencies will be as useless in the metaverse as they are now
Jemima Kelly (FT) Oct 28, 2021
Both ideas are about making a few people rich, not about building a decentralised paradise where everyone prospers.

When the World Is on the Brink, $3.5 Trillion Is a Pittance
Abrahm Lustgarten (NYT) Oct 28, 2021
What we don’t spend now to deal with climate change will cost us much more later.

The Summer of Stagflation
WSJ Oct 28, 2021
The White House policy mix has yielded slower growth but higher prices.

Fed Tapering Won’t Beat Inflation
Alexander William Salter (WSJ) Oct 28, 2021
Supply issues are mostly to blame for rising prices. Deregulation is a crucial part of the remedy.

Biden’s China trade policy is old wine in an old bottle
Daniel Sneider (AT) Oct 28, 2021
After nine months of review, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai delivered a much-anticipated speech earlier this month, touted as the unveiling of the Biden administration’s “new approach” to trade with China. Instead, to the disappointment of many trade policy experts, Biden left his predecessor’s ineffective and short-sighted policies in place.

Erdogan Leads Turkey Deeper Into Political and Economic Crisis
Bobby Ghosh (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 28, 2021
A recent threat to oust diplomats appears to be the latest attempt to distract attention from worsening domestic problems that have spooked investors.

The U.S. Economy Is Better Than It Looks
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 28, 2021
Yes, growth was weaker than forecast in the third quarter, but the latest GDP report also shows that the softness is temporary.

A Progressive Monetary Policy Is the Only Alternative
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Oct 28, 2021
Torn between inflationary jitters and fear of deflation, central bankers in the major advanced economies are taking a potentially costly wait-and-see approach. Only a progressive rethink of their tools and aims can help them play a socially useful post-pandemic role.

Democracy Before ESG
Luigi Zingales (Project Syndicate) Oct 28, 2021
Institutional investors are increasingly applying environmental, social, and governance criteria in their portfolio decisions. Yet as important as these factors are, they pale in comparison to the question of whether a business is engaged in the dirty business of dark-money political influence.

Central bank digital currencies, cryptocurrencies, and privacy
Emanuele Borgonovo, Stefano Caselli, Alessandra Cillo, Donato Masciandaro, and Giovanni Rabitti (VoxEU) Oct 28, 2021
With the development of new forms of money such as cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies, the attention paid to their role as a store of privacy is increasing. This column asks whether privacy is relevant in shaping the demand for these currencies. The results of laboratory experiments show that anonymity does indeed matters and increases the overall appeal of a medium of payment. This effect is stronger for risk-prone individuals.

Fears of both high inflation and low rates vex the wealthy
Stefan Wagstyl (FT) Oct 29, 2021
Where the rich stand out from less well-off investors is in the range of investments they can access.

The climate won’t wait. We need a carbon tax now
Tim Harford (FT) Oct 29, 2021
The time for handwringing is definitively over.

A World Running on Empty
Paul Krugman (NYT) Oct 29, 2021
Shortages and inflation aren’t uniquely American problems.

Japan’s election won’t revive its moribund economy
William Pesek (AT) Oct 29, 2021
Whatever happens in Japan’s general election on Sunday, the nation’s leader has already signaled that the economy is losing momentum heading toward 2022. That boss, by the way, is not Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, but Japan’s real leader – Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko Kuroda, who runs the globe’s third-biggest economy behind the scenes.

The Fed's Inflation Is behind the Supply Chain Mess
Ryan McMaken (Mises Wire) Oct 29, 2021
The idea that supply chain problems are “driving inflation” gets the causation backward. It’s money supply inflation that’s causing the supply chain problems, not the other way around.

After Brexit: How Poland Replaces the UK
Denis MacShane and Stephan Richter (Globalist) Oct 29, 2021
The EU-related obstinacy of Poland’s governing party is rooted not just in the desire to rewrite their own country’s post-war history, or even Europe’s. It is all a big-time deflection maneuver. | By Denis MacShane and Stephan Richter,

G-20 Needs a ‘Sputnik Moment’ on the Global Economy
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 29, 2021
The meeting in Rome this weekend provides an excellent opportunity for policy makers to assess and improve their responses in four key areas.

Euro Zone Debt Rules Need an Urgent Overhaul
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 29, 2021
With the EU economy on the upswing, it’s time to remake the fiscal rules that caused so much misery in the past.

Stablecoins Won’t Be So Stable, and That’s Fine
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 29, 2021
As the cryptocurrency market matures, issuers will compete on the basis of quality, innovation and price.

The Bonfire of the Currencies?
Benjamin J. Cohen (Project Syndicate) Oct 29, 2021
Two recent books by renowned economists have set the stage for today's great debate over the future of money in a digital age. In particular, public and private moneys are entering into a sustained rivalry, with far-reaching implications for markets and politics.

The G20's Historic Opportunity
Gordon Brown and Francesco Guerrera (Project Syndicate) Oct 29, 2021
With G20 leaders gathering in Rome to discuss the world's most pressing problems, there is a historic opportunity to turn the tide against the coronavirus. But to do so, governments must abandon the toxic nationalism that has so far stood in the way of a sufficient global response to the pandemic.

Zombie lending and policy traps
Viral Acharya, Simone Lenzu, and Olivier Wang (VoxEU) Oct 29, 2021
Banking crises of the past several decades have encouraged regulatory forbearance towards banks combined withaccommodative monetary policy. This column argues that such policies, if used too aggressively, lead to ‘zombie lending’ – the extension of new credit or prolonging of existing loans to low-productivity firms. While such policies may stabilise the economy in the short run, they risk transforming transitory shocks into phases of delayed recovery and permanent productivity and output losses.

Nurses Aren’t Like iPhones
Elisabeth Braw (FP) Oct 29, 2021
Why Western countries can’t rely on imported labor in key professions.

The Developing World Needs Energy—and Lots of It
Jason Bordoff (FP) Oct 29, 2021
At COP26, leaders must find ways to allow much greater economic growth across large parts of the world.

The world of finance will be judged on the $100tn climate challenge
Mark Carney (FT) Oct 30, 2021
Look at what your bank, insurer and fund manager do — not what they say.

U.S. Agrees to Roll Back European Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
Ana Swanson and Katie Rogers (NYT) Oct 30, 2021
The deal, which comes as U.S. and E.U. allies meet in Rome, will keep some trade protections in place in a nod to metalworking unions that supported President Biden.

South-East Asia’s regional club faces its greatest tests yet
Economist Oct 30, 2021
Credibility trumps consensus as ASEAN attempts to remain relevant.

Many more Africans are migrating within Africa than to Europe
Economist Oct 30, 2021
Some governments are trying to make moving easier.

Singapore Is Rewriting the Rules for Global Cities
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 30, 2021
The role model for Dubai and other economic hubs wants to achieve a new balance between foreign and local workers.

Robots and export quality
Timothy DeStefano and Jonathan Timmis (VoxEU) Oct 30, 2021
Robots are rapidly becoming a key part of manufacturing in developed and developing economies. This column examines a new channel for how automation can affect manufacturing exports – quality upgrading. The findings show that robot diffusion increases the quality of exports. Global quality improvements are predominantly driven by the upgrading of developing country exports, while quality improvements within both developed and developing countries are driven by the catch-up of (initially) lower-quality exports. The authors also find that sophisticated or more basic robot applications are associated with quality gains in developed and developing economies, respectively.

Supply chain disruptions are now holding back the recovery
FT View Oct 31, 2021
Central banks are ill-equipped to counter the bottleneck slowdown.

The case for splitting China out of the EM index
Leo Lewis (FT) Oct 31, 2021
Preponderance of Chinese stocks deprives investors of broader exposure.

Funding clean technology is the way to avoid climate disaster
Bill Gates (FT) Oct 31, 2021
We need to turn lab-proven concepts into ubiquitous products that people want and can afford to buy.

The chancellor has no clear plan for faster, greener economic growth
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 31, 2021
What was most striking in Sunak’s speech was the absence of an integrated response to the UK’s many challenges.

Fighting climate change is an economic opportunity for Iraq
Barham Salih (FT) Oct 31, 2021
The country can generate green industries and sustainable energy to combat threat of drought and desertification.

Fed Complacency Feeds Inflation
Mickey D. Levy (WSJ) Oct 31, 2021
The central bank’s strategy is meant to help lower-income earners, but rising prices hit them hardest.

Not Yet on Track: Climate Threat Demands More Ambitious Global Action
Kristalina Georgieva (IMF) Oct 31, 2021
New IMF analysis shows gaps in ambition and policy needed to achieve emissions curbs that contain global warming.

President Biden’s elusive trade policy
Gary Hufbauer (EAF) Oct 31, 2021
Bereft of new ideas, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai recently doubled down on China tariffs and the Phase One trade deal.

Washington still searching for a China trade policy
William Reinsch (EAF) Oct 31, 2021
US Administration officials are acutely aware that they have no trade policy for the region and that sending an aircraft carrier through the South China Sea every few months is really no substitute.

How an Evergrande Collapse Would Cascade Through China
Angela Huyue Zhang and S Alex Yang (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 31, 2021
The country’s supply chain is a strength but also a risk. One big default could lead to a domino effect of small and medium-size business failures.

Russia Is No Longer Europe's Reliable Gas Supplier
Julian Lee (Bloomberg Opinion) Oct 31, 2021
Whether unable, or unwilling, to boost gas deliveries to Europe, Russia has dealt a fatal blow to its claims of being dependable.