News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

A new deal for the young: mending the tax system
FT View May 1, 2021
Explicitly and implicitly the current set-up favours older generations.

Globalisation and its mistaken discontents
Janan Ganesh (FT) May 1, 2021
There is too much pessimism about a system that proved mostly ingenious over the past year.

A commodity boom with a difference
Michael Mackenzie (FT) May 1, 2021
While sector prices have surged, the outlook is still challenged in some areas.

Why private-credit markets are due a growth spurt
Economist May 1, 2021
With dealmaking at a frantic pace, speed matters.

How to tax capital without hurting investment
Economist May 1, 2021
President Joe Biden should improve the design of his taxes on Wall Street.

Is China's population shrinking?
Economist May 1, 2021
Leaks from the census say it is. Official media give mixed messages.

Bank runs and central bank digital currency
Eric Monnet, Angelo Riva, and Stefano Ungaro (VoxEU) May 1, 2021
One of the concerns in the debate on central bank digital currency is whether the ability for depositors to hold an account at the central bank could trigger a run on the banking system. This column looks back to the French Great Depression of 1930-1931, when savers had a safe alternative to banks in the form of government-backed savings institutions, and shows that the existence of safe deposits other than banks can play a substantial role in triggering bank runs. The study also provides insights into two elements of the current discussion: ceilings on safe deposits and interest rates.

The dynamic relationship between global debt and output
Yun Jung Kim, Jing Zhang, and Caroline Beetz Fenske (FRB Chicago Fed Letter) May 1, 2021
Given the ramifications of indebtedness for global growth, researchers and policymakers are keenly interested in the mechanisms underlying the linkages between debt and economic output. In our research, summarized in this article, we find that a debt shock adversely affects future economic output, and the impact is most pronounced in developing countries and in countries with a fixed exchange rate regime. This information and related results from the study are useful for policymakers considering appropriate levels of debt as well as an exchange rate regime that is most conducive to economic growth. Another important finding is that the way debt affects economic output depends on the sector, suggesting the importance of separating public debt from private debt when undertaking future empirical studies.

The UK's economic rebound provides some cheer
FT View May 2, 2021
Better than expected growth figures are welcome after a difficult year.

Biden's Spending Binge Is Costlier Than Advertised
Steve H. Hanke (WSJ) May 2, 2021
The new taxes he proposes would cost money to collect and put a drag on the productive economy.

Clear skies over Asia's new foreign investment landscape
David Dollar (EAF) May 2, 2021
Although the pandemic and recession have caused much speculation about the future of foreign investment and global supply chains in Asia, the change in the foreign investment and international production landscape seems likely to be less than politicians and others have supposed.

A multilateral investment facilitation agreement can help advance development
Karl Sauvant (EAF) May 2, 2021
Progress on the WTO's Investment Facilitation Agreement by the 100 members involved in its negotiation accentuates the opportunity for positive development on investment arrangements like those in RCEP.

Why I Hope Oil Market Bulls Are Right About Summer
Julian Lee (Bloomberg View) May 2, 2021
There are many reasons to be optimistic we're putting the worst of Covid behind us. But just as many to remain cautious.

The panopticon of Germany's foreign trade: New facts on the first globalisation, 1880–1913
Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, and Nikolaus Wolf (VoxEU) May 2, 2021
The history of globalisation is usually told in two parts, separated not only by two world wars but also by changes in technology, institutions, and economic logic. This column reconsiders that narrative. Using detailed new evidence on Germany's foreign trading practices from 1800 to 1913 (the 'first' globalisation), it finds that most growth took place along the extensive margin, while 25–30% of trade was intra-industry. If the first globalisation saw substantial heterogeneity within countries and industries, it may be time to re-think the 'classical' versus 'new' trade paradigm.

The EU recovery fund cannot be rushed
FT View May 3, 2021
Brussels needs the right design for holding governments to reform commitments.

Lousy demographics will not stop China's rise
Gideon Rachman (FT) May 3, 2021
The old maxim 'demography is destiny' no longer holds in the same way that it used to.

Fed framework holds central bank hostage
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) May 3, 2021
Balance of risks for monetary policy has flipped away from deflation to longer-term instability.

Commodities supercycle arrives as pandemic recedes
Neil Hume, David Sheppard, Emiko Terazono and Henry Sanderson (FT) May 3, 2021
Sector-wide bull market gathers momentum.

Low-Income Countries Need a Boost for the Recovery. Here's How the IMF Can Step Up
Masood Ahmed (CGD) May 3, 2021
A start has already been made with the agreement to issue $650 billion in special drawing rights (SDRs), which will provide LICs with $21 billion in urgently needed liquidity. This is good news. The IMF now needs to build on this start with four additional measures which together can provide a $150 billion financing package to LICs over the next five years.

Making COVID-19 aid effective by doubling down on USAID reforms
George Ingram and Justin Fugle (Brookings) May 3, 2021
Locally led development.

Climate Crisis Can't Be Solved Without Africa
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) May 3, 2021
Developed nations must do their part to end the continent's dependence on fossil fuels and support renewable-energy projects.

An Older China May Be More Unequal, Too
Clara Ferreira Marques (Bloomberg View) May 3, 2021
The population is at or near its peak. Absent different policies, women and rural citizens look likely to bear the burden of decline.

Private Equity Doesn't Live by Tax Breaks Alone
Matthew Brooker (Bloomberg View) May 3, 2021
Rule of law, free flow of information and political stability also matter. On all these, Hong Kong has been going backward.

The Promise and Peril of Central Bank Digital Currencies
Anne O. Krueger (Project Syndicate) May 3, 2021
With China and others venturing into a realm once inhabited by private cryptocurrencies, there will be increasing pressure on the United States, Europe, and others to follow. But before everyone rushes in, policymakers would do well to consider the foreseeable risks and how they should be managed.

Will the Fourth Industrial Revolution Serve Sustainability?
Victor Galaz (Project Syndicate) May 3, 2021
Building a more sustainable future requires a rethink of some deeply held assumptions about the role of artificial intelligence. AI's potential to help address the climate challenge lies not in optimizing systems, but in augmenting people's capacities to tackle global warming and become stewards of the biosphere.

Twisted Democracies
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) May 3, 2021
In many democracies, particularly in Latin America, well-meaning reforms intended to enhance democracy have achieved just the opposite, with governments that are strong on paper but weak in practice. And with each election cycle, citizen rage is brought ever-closer to the boiling point.

How Will the Digital Renminbi Change China?
Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) May 3, 2021
China's new digital renminbi by itself will not help the currency to challenge the US dollar's global dominance. Its true significance instead lies in its potential to shift the competitive balance of power between the country's technology giants and traditional banks.

Organized Labor After COVID
Pranab Bardhan (Project Syndicate) May 3, 2021
Union membership was already declining steadily before the pandemic, and the future of organized labor as a political and economic force remains in doubt. While the COVID-19 crisis has highlighted many of the injustices faced by low-wage service and gig workers, the labor movement itself has grown deeply fragmented.

Pathways for productivity and growth after the COVID-19 crisis
Hans-Helmut Kotz, Jan Mischke, and Sven Smit (VoxEU) May 3, 2021
The future of productivity and economic growth in the US and Europe is uncertain. This column reviews evidence from eight economic sectors to lay out the key conditions for sustained recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. It suggests that the weak productivity growth that followed the Global Crisis can be averted if private and public sectors act together to strengthen demand and diffuse supply-side restructuring to all firms.

Tackling climate change requires global policies
Söhnke Bartram, Kewei Hou, and Sehoon Kim (VoxEU) May 3, 2021
How effective are climate change policies, and what are the important considerations to ensure they are effective? This column shows that firms respond to climate change policies with regulatory arbitrage so that localised policies aimed at mitigating climate risk can have unintended consequences. Studying the impact of the California cap-and-trade programme, it shows that firms without financial constraints do not reduce their emissions in response to the policy. In contrast, financially constrained firms shift emissions and output from California to other states. In fact, contrary to the policy objective, these firms increase their total emissions after the cap-and-trade rule.

The conflict between CBDC goals and design choices
Antonio Fatás (VoxEU) May 3, 2021
There is growing interest by central banks on the launch of digital currencies accessible to everyone. The main goal is to produce a more resilient, efficient and inclusive payment system. This column argues that central bank digital currency alone will not achieve those goals unless central banks are willing to engage in all the steps of the payment system or complement their digital currency with a broad set of regulatory changes to ensure competition and interoperability of payments.

The End of Modi's Global Dreams
Sushant Singh (FP) May 3, 2021
India's prime minister advanced a muscular foreign policy, but his mishandling of the pandemic is an embarrassing step back.

Biden's Great Economic Rebalancing
John Cassidy (New Yorker) May 3, 2021
The President is looking to correct a capitalist economy that has gone askew, and reclaim a lost vision of shared prosperity.

The American Jobs Plan: Assessing the Potential Economic Impact
Jay Bryson, Michael Pugliese, Azhar Iqbal & Hop Mathews (WF Econ Group) May 3, 2021
The recently announced "American Jobs Plan" would pair sizable increases in public investment with proposed increases in corporate taxes. What effects would these policy proposals have on macroeconomic variables, such as real GDP growth, inflation and employment? We address these questions in this report.

The Last Resort in a Changing Landscape
Mary C. Daly (FRBSF Econ Letter) May 3, 2021
As lender of last resort, the Federal Reserve plays a vital role in maintaining a sound and stable financial system. But the frequency and scale of Fed interventions following disruptions like the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 are concerning. As the country emerges from the pandemic, it's time to focus on crafting more resilient policies, particularly by addressing Treasury market vulnerabilities and providing greater prudential oversight.

EU recovery funds will flow at last and could be game-changers
Martin Sandbu (FT) May 4, 2021
Member states have submitted their plans: they are serious and ambitious.

Not all blue-collar workers will find green-collar jobs
Sarah O'Connor (FT) May 4, 2021
Politicians' claims that the transition to 'net zero' will create new jobs are only half true.

The Side of Wall Street That Matters Most Is Begging for Infrastructure
Daniel Alpert (NYT) May 4, 2021
Just look at the underlying tells in the financial markets.

Biden Wants Higher Taxes Than China's
Mark A. Bloomfield and Oscar S. Pollock (WSJ) May 4, 2021
How can a communist country treat capital gains more favorably than the U.S. does?

Asia on the front lines of US inflation threat
William Pesek (AT) May 4, 2021
First to recover, first to overheat? South Korea is suddenly grappling with this most dreaded of economic questions as inflation accelerates to the fastest pace since 2017. Asia has come a long way since the 1997-98 crisis but it remains more "dollarized" than governments like to admit.

Supply Chains Are Our Most Critical Infrastructure
Robert C O'Brien (Bloomberg View) May 4, 2021
Democrats should take heed: Trump was right to use tariffs to reduce America's reliance on imports, improve national security and protect American jobs.

Is the US Economy Recovering or Overheating?
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) May 4, 2021
The fact that core inflation is rising on the back of substantial GDP growth and declining unemployment should not come as a surprise. Those who are wringing their hands about economic "overheating" should remember that an absence of price increases would reflect an economy that is still struggling.

What to Do About Eurozone Sovereign Debt
Stefano Micossi and Emilios Avgouleas (Project Syndicate) May 4, 2021
Now more than ever, the European Stability Mechanism should be adapted to manage eurozone member states' sovereign debts. Otherwise, the bloc's financial stability will be jeopardized, and governments will end up being penalized simply for supporting their citizens through the pandemic.

Helping the Other 66%
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) May 4, 2021
Addressing within-country inequality may be the political imperative of the moment. But tackling vastly greater cross-country disparities – especially those affecting the two-thirds of humanity living outside the advanced economies and China – is the real key to maintaining geopolitical stability in the twenty-first century.

Changing specialisation to cope with climate change
Bruno Conte, Klaus Desmet, Dávid Krisztián Nagy, and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg (VoxEU) May 4, 2021
Trade restrictions are often invoked as a way to stem climate change. Although international transportation is an important source of carbon emissions, this view is incomplete. Using a dynamic spatial growth model, this column argues that trade can be a powerful mechanism to adapt to rising temperatures. The interaction of climate change, productivity, and migration decisions gives rise to significant global changes in populations and sectoral specialisations. On aggregate, rising temperatures are predicted to lower real GDP per capita by 6% and welfare by 15% by the year 2200.

As the Virus Ravages Poorer Countries, Rich Nations Are Springing Back to Life
Benjamin Mueller (NYT) May 5, 2021
Despite early vows, the developed world has done little to promote global vaccination, in what analysts call both a moral and epidemiological failure.

HK's uneven recovery a tale of booms and lulls
Jeff Pao (AT) May 5, 2021
Hong Kong's economy is regaining strong growth momentum on the back of rebounding exports but sluggish domestic consumption points to an uneven recovery that could stunt a broad-based revival in the months ahead. Overall economic activity is still below pre-recession levels, as the pandemic and social distancing requirements continue to weigh on key economic segments.

US Dollar Share of Global Foreign Exchange Reserves Drops to 25-Year Low
Serkan Arslanalp and Chima Simpson-Bell (IMF) May 5, 2021
The share of US dollar reserves held by central banks fell to 59 percent—its lowest level in 25 years—during the fourth quarter of 2020, according to the IMF's Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) survey. Some analysts say this partly reflects the declining role of the US dollar in the global economy, in the face of competition from other currencies used by central banks for international transactions. If the shifts in central bank reserves are large enough, they can affect currency and bond markets.

A 'Very Modest' Taper Is Undeserving of a Tantrum
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2021
Investors zeroed in on Janet Yellen's comments that rates will have to rise "somewhat." That wasn't the operative phrase.

Europe's Bankruptcy Paradox
Chris Bryant (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2021
Insolvencies won't remain this low but a cataclysm may yet be avoided.

TSMC's Global-Not-Global Strategy Must End
Tim Culpan (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2021
It's unfathomable that the world's most important chipmaker keeps 90% of capacity within a few nearby locations.

India's Stock Market Lives on Another Planet
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2021
Investors are expecting the second Covid-19 wave to be a bigger version of the first. It's far worse than that.

The World's Largest Pension Fund Has Cooled on ESG. Should You?
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2021
Thematic indices make investors feel good. But is simple virtue enough to fatten retirement accounts and support an aging population?

The Race for Libor's Replacement Is Too Close to Call
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2021
The interest-rate benchmark's heir apparent, SOFR, has weaknesses that others are trying to exploit.

The Easy Part of the Economic Recovery Is Behind Us
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2021
Blistering growth will cool as inventories are restocked. Now investors will turn their attention to other questions looming over the markets.

Why America's Population Advantage Has Evaporated
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2021
There are good and bad reasons, but they all add up to a grim economic future, especially for younger people.

Sudan Opens for Business
Volker Perthes (Project Syndicate) May 5, 2021
After decades of strife and bloodshed, Sudan has made significant gains in the two years since its revolution, adopting important economic reforms and gradually rejoining the international community. Now, the country needs investment, and it has no shortage of profitable opportunities to offer.

The Varieties of Consumer Revival
Jaana Remes and Sajal Kohli (Project Syndicate) May 5, 2021
Previous major economic crises such as the Great Depression and the 1973-74 oil-price shock left their marks on consumer behavior. As the greatest economic disruption of this generation, the COVID-19 pandemic also will have a lasting impact – one that may be more varied and divergent than ever before.

America's Immigration Calculus
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) May 5, 2021
For both historic and economic reasons, the United States should continue to rely on immigration. But there is always political pressure to restrict it in order to protect incumbent groups' welfare. President Joe Biden's administration faces a formidable task in balancing these interests.

Why rich parents have rich children
Sreevidya Ayyar, Uta Bolt, Eric French, Jamie Hentall MacCuish, and Cormac O'Dea (VoxEU) May 5, 2021
The children of rich families tend to go to better quality schools, have higher cognitive skills, and complete more years of schooling. This column exploits unique data from the National Child Development study to determine these early childhood factors go on to have long-run impacts on an individual's lifetime earnings, perpetuating a cycle of wealth. These results suggest that policies that equalise investments, such as improving school quality, could promote income mobility.

The Value of Big Data in a Pandemic
Kairong Xiao (VoxChina) May 5, 2021
This article summarizes a study of the economic and public health effects of the Health Code app in China. By exploiting the staggered implementation of this technology across 322 Chinese cities, this study finds that the Health Code app significantly reduced virus transmission and facilitated economic recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic. A macroeconomic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model calibrated to the micro-level estimates shows that the technology reduced the economic loss by 0.5% of GDP and saved more than 200,000 lives by alleviating informational frictions during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Trade Deals Primarily Promote Stability, Not Trade
Jeffrey Kucik (FP) May 5, 2021
And the new agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union does the opposite.

Biden Wants to Replicate China's Infrastructure Miracle
Yukon Huang and Joshua Levy (WP) May 5, 2021
But he won't be able to pull that off. Here's why.

Janet Yellen weighs into old territory on interest rates
FT View May 6, 2021
Treasury secretary should not have commented on monetary policy — though she was right.

A good year for profits as we emerge from lockdown
John Redwood (FT) May 6, 2021
Hard-hit sectors will make up ground.

Joe Biden's experiment could revolutionise economic thinking
Megan Greene (FT) May 6, 2021
US president's rescue plans upend the framework we use to understand the role of policy.

India's Problem Is Now the World's Problem
Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo (NYT) May 6, 2021
The country's coronavirus disaster is the world's problem.

Europe Starts to Come Around on China
WSJ May 6, 2021
Putting business first and alienating the U.S. has backfired.

The Logic of US-China Competition
Joseph S. Nye, Jr. (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2021
The success of US President Joe Biden's China policy will depend on whether the two powers can cooperate in producing global public goods, while competing in other areas. The US-China relationship is a "cooperative rivalry," in which the terms of competition will require equal attention to both sides of the oxymoron. That will not be easy.

Central-Bank Independence Comes to Brazil
Juliana B. Bolzani, Marcelo M. Prates, Flávio J. Roman, and Marcel M. dos Santos (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2021
Central-bank independence is a democratic choice that enables the separation of money creation from government financing, laying the foundation for sustainable economic growth. The recently adopted Brazilian autonomy law is therefore a historic achievement to be celebrated – and handled with care.

Will Corporate Greed Prolong the Pandemic?
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Lori Wallich (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2021
The shortfall in global COVID-19 vaccine production could be closed if manufacturers around the world were granted access to the necessary technology and knowledge. But first, the US and other key governments must recognize the drug companies' opposition to this solution for the deadly rent-seeking that it is.

Bank of England Eases Foot Off Monetary Policy Accelerator
Nick Bennenbroek and Brendan McKenna (WF Econ Group) May 6, 2021
The Bank of England (BoE) kept its key policy parameters at today's announcement, keeping the Bank Rate at 0.10% and maintaining its asset purchase target at £895 billion. However, in a modest tweak towards less accommodative monetary policy the BoE reduced the pace of its weekly asset purchases by £1 billion per week to £3.44 billion per week. The central bank now sees an earlier economic recovery, lifting its GDP growth forecast for 2021, but lowering its GDP growth forecast for 2022. So long as the economy continues to improve we believe a further moderate tapering of asset purchases is likely at the August announcement. At this time however, we do not expect an initial policy interest rate increase until the first half of 2023. We view today's announcement as a modest upside to our outlook for the pound. At the same time, we also view the announcement as broadly consistent with our medium-term profile which already anticipates modest gains in the pound versus the U.S. dollar over time, and a stronger pound versus the euro.

The 'crowding out' risk to the economy
Michala Marcussen (FT) May 7, 2021
Even with low rates, central bank intervention may have unintended consequences.

The Global Economy Is About to Become the Climate Economy
Michael Ferrari and Sinead O'Sullivan (BRINK) May 7, 2021
No aspect of the emerging 21st century global economy is likely to escape the influence of climate and sustainability factors.

On Infrastructure, Europe Should Think Bigger Than India
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) May 7, 2021
The bloc should be leading a global effort to establish new rules and institutions to finance the massive build-out that Asia and Africa need.

China's Population Dip May Have a Silver Lining
Adam Minter (Bloomberg View) May 7, 2021
If the government wants to ease its demographic plight, it should start by treating families more humanely.

Brazil and India Need Their Own Operation Warp Speed
Timothy L O'Brien (Bloomberg View) May 7, 2021
Waiving patent rights won't be enough to launch massive vaccine campaigns in developing countries.

Money Alone Won't Ensure Global Vaccine Equity
Rosalind McKenna (Project Syndicate) May 7, 2021
The World Bank has pledged $12 billion to help poor countries purchase and distribute COVID-19 vaccines, tests, and treatments. But its pledge lacks critical information, raising the risk that this urgently needed financing will be wasted.

US inflation: Set for take-off?
Laurence Ball, Gita Gopinath, Daniel Leigh, Prachi Mishra, and Antonio Spilimbergo (VoxEU) May 7, 2021
How high is the ongoing US fiscal expansion likely to push inflation? This column presents new evidence that underlying (weighted median) CPI inflation has so far steadily declined since the start of the COVID-19 crisis, broadly as predicted by its historical Phillips curve relation. If the ongoing fiscal expansion reduces unemployment to 1.5-3.5%, as some predict, underlying inflation could rise to about 2.5-3% by 2023. If the fiscal expansion is temporary and monetary policy remains clearly communicated and decisive, there is little risk of a 1960s-type inflationary spiral.

When it comes to inflation, how much fortitude does the Fed have?
Sebastian Mallaby (FT) May 8, 2021
A surge is not inevitable, but the risks are significant.

Is leverage still the best benchmark of credit risk?
Joe Rennison (FT) May 8, 2021
As global corporate debt rises, some analysts question the traditional measure of ability to repay.

The myth-making of nations
Janan Ganesh (FT) May 8, 2021
Globalism is a thin identity, but it's an honest one.

Biden officials are playing down the risk of inflation. Don't believe them.
Henry Olsen (WP) May 8, 2021
The signs of looming inflation are all around us.

The digital currencies that matter
Economist May 8, 2021
Get ready for Fedcoin and the e-euro.

Can human creativity prevent mass unemployment?
Economist May 8, 2021
The market for artisan goods is likely to grow. But organised craft could lose its charm.

A Baby Boom Would Be Bad
Amanda Little (Bloomberg View) May 8, 2021
Before we champion faster population growth, let's curb climate change and find a better way to feed the people who are already here.

Why the toughest capitalists should root for a wealth tax
Martin Sandbu (FT) May 9, 2021
Capitalism would benefit from a tax regime that rewarded the best investors.

Creative destruction is the silver lining of the Covid-19 crisis
Rana Foroohar (FT) May 11, 2021
Post-pandemic business is growing, and so are the policy challenges.

How Child Care Went From 'Girly' Economics to Infrastructure
Emily Peck (NYT) May 9, 2021
Experts who sounded the alarm about the care economy were often shunted to the side of policy discussions. Not anymore.

The Trade Two-Step as Part of Biden's Diplomatic Dance
Robert B. Zoellick (WSJ) May 9, 2021
The president can't afford to ignore trade, lest friends in Asia conclude they should work with China.

Washington is playing a losing game with China
Chas Freeman (EAF) May 9, 2021
The principal challenge that China presents to the United States is not military but economic and technological, and in the long run, the United States cannot outspend China militarily and cannot hope to beat it on its home ground.

China and Its Lenders Have to Join the Global Club
Bloomberg View May 9, 2021
Beijing's loans to low-income countries have come under criticism. But the situation doesn't have to be so contentious.

Refined Oil Outsourcing Is Going to a Whole New Level
Julian Lee (Bloomberg View) May 9, 2021
U.S. and European dependence on oil product imports will become more acute as environmental rules at home make plants too expensive to upgrade or build.

The Next Global Disaster Is on Its Way, and We Aren't Ready
Niall Ferguson (Bloomberg View) May 9, 2021
A major lesson of Covid-19 is that there is no distinction between natural and man-made catastrophes.

The Big Question: Is America Headed For a Debt Crisis?
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) May 9, 2021
A Q&A with deficit hawk Maya MacGuineas on how the U.S.'s borrowing binge has weakened the economy and why future generations will pay the price.

Southeast Asia's Economies Look More Submerged Than Emerging
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 9, 2021
Rapid recovery in the U.S. means the region lags behind in growth as well as vaccinations.

What Covid teaches us about innovating fast
Serguei Netessine (FT) May 10, 2021
A culture of experimentation saved companies in this crisis — and may in the next.

US-China rivalry drives the retreat of market economics
Gideon Rachman (FT) May 10, 2021
Industrial policy is back in fashion as geopolitical tensions increase.

Meet the academic who has fired up moonshot investing
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) May 10, 2021
Arizona professor provides backing for the approach of investors such as Ark and Baillie Gifford.

UK's services sector starts to count the real cost of Brexit
Andrew Hill (FT) May 10, 2021
Although they account for 80 per cent of the economy, services were rarely a priority in the negotiations over leaving the EU.

The Fed Is Playing With Fire
Christian Broda and Stanley Druckenmiller (WSJ) May 10, 2021
Clinging to an emergency policy after the emergency has passed, Chairman Powell courts asset bubbles.

US fiscal profligacy and the impending crisis
David P. Goldman (AT) May 10, 2021
Massive demand-side stimulus combined with constraints on the supply-side in the form of higher taxes is a sure recipe for inflation and eventual recession. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the Biden administration's fiscal irresponsibility arises from a cynical political calculation.

Where Have All the Chips Gone?
Jordan Schneider (BRINK) May 10, 2021
There is a critical global shortage of semiconductors, just as economies are starting to emerge from the economic crisis of 2020. Meanwhile, the Chinese government is working hard to build its own homegrown semiconductor sector.

Europe's crusade to fend off Chinese interference falls short
Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel) May 10, 2021
It is in everybody's interest for China to level the playing field among state-owned, private, and foreign companies so that no new distortionary measures need to be taken elsewhere.

How Stock Markets Respond to Social Unrest
Philip Barrett and Sophia Chen (IMF) May 10, 2021
What happens to stock markets when social unrest—such as mass protests and riots—occurs? Are investors scared-off by the disorder? Or are they buoyed by the prospect of positive, popular change in response to unrest?

Extreme Market Shocks Don't Fade So Easily
John Authers (Bloomberg View) May 10, 2021
Friday's jobs miss is a reminder that the repercussions of the Covid pandemic are still with us, and hard to judge.

Markets Are In for an Interest-Rate Surprise
William C Dudley (Bloomberg View) May 10, 2021
A 4.5% peak in the Fed's target rate isn't out of the question.

7% Growth Looks a Lot Harder After the Jobs Report
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) May 10, 2021
The U.S. recovery seemed to be roaring ahead until the April jobs report; now all those optimistic forecasts need to be reassessed.

Why China's Nio Should Resist the Siren Song of Norway
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg View) May 10, 2021
Europe may be the promised land of all-electric vehicles but the ambitious carmaker should first learn to build its own first.

Help India Now
Junaid Nabi (Project Syndicate) May 10, 2021
The international community must join forces and develop a collective approach to help India address its COVID-19 crisis, not only for moral reasons, but also because the health of other countries' populations and economies are at stake. Governments can take several steps to mitigate the impact.

Will the Productivity Revolution Be Postponed?
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) May 10, 2021
US President Joe Biden clearly has bet on faster productivity growth to pay for his $4.1 trillion American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan. But history suggests that any acceleration of productivity growth is likely to be delayed – perhaps by decades.

Waking the Norwegian Green Giant
Mariana Mazzucato and Rainer Kattel (Project Syndicate) May 10, 2021
As one of the world's leading exporters of natural gas, Norway faces a unique challenge in a world that is increasingly moving away from fossil fuels. The country has all the financial, technological, and human resources it needs to thrive in a decarbonized future; what's missing is policy leadership.

Corruption under austerity
Gianmarco Daniele and Tommaso Giommoni (VoxEU) May 10, 2021
Austerity measures have been widely adopted around the world with mixed results in terms of public debt reduction and adverse political effects. This column examines the effect of fiscal austerity policies on corruption in Italian municipalities. The budget rules have led to a decrease in both recorded corruption rates and corruption charges per euro spent, without a clear effect on local public service provision. The drop in corruption emerges mostly in pre-electoral years for mayors eligible for reelection. Budget constraints might induce local governments to curb expenditures while dampening exposure to corruption.

Why Choose? A Case for Spending Growth in Services AND Goods
Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery (WF Econ Group) May 10, 2021
A seismic shift in spending on services is right around the corner, but our analysis of prior cycles suggests that there is scope for continued growth in durable goods spending even though some demand for these big-ticket items has been pulled forward.

Exploring the Safety Premium of Safe Assets
Jens H.E. Christensen and Nikola Mirkov (FRBSF Econ Group) May 10, 2021
Investors are usually willing to pay a higher price, known as a premium, for a safe fixed-income asset in return for the convenience of its high quality and liquidity. A study of Swiss government bonds—widely considered to be extremely safe but not particularly liquid—can give some insights into how quality affects the premium. The large and variable safety premium of these bonds surged to persistently higher levels following the launch of the euro. However, subsequent large asset purchases by the European Central Bank depressed the safety premium.

A very different kind of supercycle
FT View May 11, 2021
The green revolution, not China's industrial one, will drive commodity prices.

ECB should look to the Fed for its strategy review
FT View May 11, 2021
More flexible inflation targeting would improve euro's monetary policy.

Why haven't house prices collapsed?
Valentina Romei (FT) May 11, 2021
With economies shrinking at an unprecedented rate, house prices were expected to plummet — so why have they been surging in most western countries?

Crypto... mania
(Kathimerini and El Economista/Bruegel) May 11, 2021
Cryptocurrencies are here to stay but are unlikely to be considered a credible alternative to money anytime soon.

3 reasons why we may build back better after COVID-19
Shanta Devarajan (Brookings) May 11, 2021
In at least three areas, there may be answers to these questions: health, inequality, and transparency.

Why Digitalization and Digital Governance Are Key to Regional Integration in Africa
Adedeji Adeniran and Sone Osakwe (CGD) May 11, 2021
How digitalization can help to address structural barriers to trade in Africa.

If China Shrinks, It's the World's Problem
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2021
Slowing population growth won't precipitate a crisis at home. But the rest of the planet will have to adjust to lower output and pricier goods.

Two Big Things You Need to Understand About Inflation
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2021
If the Fed is forced to cool an overheating economy, there are only painful choices.

The Fed and the ECB Are Making Passive Investing Trickier
Anneka Treon (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2021
Recent central bank behavior is encouraging investors to take a more active approach.

Shrinking Population in China Brightens the Climate Outlook
Peter R Orszag (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2021
A sooner-than-expected decline in the birth rate will lower global greenhouse-gas emissions.

Why China's Credit Squeeze Hasn't Popped Iron Ore's Bubble
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2021
The price may look lofty, but underlying factors will keep levels rising — for now.

Ray Dalio Was Right About Going In on China's Untamed Markets
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2021
Bridgewater's risk parity trades appear to be working very well despite Beijing's reform campaign against a range of companies.

A Global Accord for Sustainable Finance
Fabio Panetta (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2021
With national climate commitments and a renewal of multilateralism both gaining momentum, there is a unique opportunity to forge a global consensus on issues such as carbon pricing, the green transition, and sustainable finance. In each case, the European Union offers a promising model for others.

Q2 Emerging Market FX Vulnerability
Brendan McKenna (WF Econ Group) May 11, 2021
We remain constructive overall on the outlook for emerging market currencies, especially as the U.S. dollar has moved lower as Treasury yields have slipped from recent highs. However, emerging market currencies do remain vulnerable to many different scenarios, particularly as some G10 central banks turn less accommodative and as the economic outlook for certain developing economies deteriorates amid a renewed surge in COVID cases. In this report, we update our emerging market FX vulnerability framework and highlight currencies where overall levels of vulnerability have changed.

Do Developing Economies Have an External Debt Problem? Part I: Which Economies Are Most Vulnerable?
Jay Bryson, Brendan McKenna, and Hop Mathews (WF Econ Group) May 11, 2021
External debt in the developing world has risen markedly in recent years. In the first installment in a two-part series, we assess which developing economies have the highest degrees of vulnerability to external debt crises today.

Intellectual property must not be an obstacle to fair vaccine supply
Pedro Sánchez (FT) May 12, 2021
Global collaboration is essential.

EU plays catch-up on vaccines and hails its export programme
Michael Peel (FT) May 12, 2021
After lagging behind the US and UK, the bloc has changed gear to inoculate greater numbers.

Central banks get serious on digital currencies
Nicholas Gruen (FT) May 12, 2021
CBDCs could boost government coffers, displace costlier taxation and improve the efficiency of payments.

Markets weigh prospect of new commodities supercycle
Neil Hume and Emiko Terazono (FT) May 12, 2021
Prices from corn to copper are rallying as economies reopen but sceptics think it will be transient.

India's Strict Rules on Foreign Aid Snarl Covid Donations
Anupreeta Das (NYT) May 12, 2021
International donors are raising millions, but the Modi administration has erected hurdles for overseas organizations and guided money toward officially endorsed groups.

Powell Gets His Inflation Wish
WSJ May 12, 2021
The Fed Chairman wanted higher prices. Lets hope it's 'transitory.'

The Jones Act Strikes Again
WSJ May 12, 2021
Biden considers another waiver, but the real answer is to sink it.

The Biden Tax Mirage
Phil Gramm and Mike Solon (WSJ) May 12, 2021
Marginal rates have been a lot higher, but the actual share the top 1% pay stays remarkably constant.

Who Really Pays for ESG Investing?
Andy Puzder and Diane Black (WSJ) May 12, 2021
BlackRock and others bill the cost to middle-income investors, in the form of lower returns.

No, the economic recovery is not a bust — yet
WP May 12, 2021
There's no reason to panic, but Mr. Biden and the Fed must guard against supply-side limits to much-needed growth.

A Swift Price-Level Adjustment, Not an Inflation Spike: April U.S. CPI
Allison Boxer and Tiffany Wilding (PIMCO)/I> May 12, 2021
We believe the U.S. is undergoing a large price-level adjustment, not shifting to a persistently higher inflation regime.

The Policymaker's Trilemma
Abebe Aemro Selassie and Andrew Tiffin (IMF) May 12, 2021
How policymakers navigate this trilemma will have a huge bearing on economic and social outcomes.

India Must Start Its Road to Economic Recovery Now
Bloomberg View May 12, 2021
The scars of the second wave of the pandemic will run deep but the country has to tailor its ongoing response to the disease to maximize a rebound.

Brexit Chaos Gone, the U.K. Is Too Cheap to Ignore
John Authers (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2021
Britain has stable government, a world-leading vaccine program and a head start over other economies. Five years is a long time in politics.

The Days of Low Treasury Yields Are Numbered
William C Dudley (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2021
The benchmark 10-year rate is likely to more than double in coming years.

Biden's $6 Trillion Spending Program Isn't Welfare
Timothy L O'Brien and Nir Kaissar (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2021
The president's proposals for jobs, infrastructure, education and child care show that government can be a force for progress.

Inflation Is Not Just Inevitable, It's Part of the Fed's Plan
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2021
Even if this period of rising prices is more than a blip, the central back needs to stick to its framework.

A New Global Monetary Order Threatens the Dollar
Jim Bianco (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2021
There's a parallel financial system led by stablecoins that's starting to jeopardize the greenback's status as a reserve currency.

U.S. Economy Is Evolving. So Should the Fed.
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2021
In light of surprising data on inflation and jobs, adhering to a rigid framework increases the risk of a policy mistake, a market accident or both.

Credit Cards Are Poised to Turbocharge Inflation
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2021
Americans are rapidly paying down their high-interest debt in yet another sign of pent-up demand.

The Era of Big Fiscal Spending Has Only Just Begun
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2021
Australia is predicting budget deficits for years to come as it musters resources to fight Covid. Its approach is a warning to the world.

Industrial Planning Did Not Deliver the COVID Vaccines
Deirdre Nansen McCloskey and Alberto Mingardi (Project Syndicate) May 12, 2021
Advocates of active government regard the development of effective COVID-19 vaccines as a case of successful "industrial planning." But the vaccines are a triumph not of state direction but of "innovism" – a private-sector-led, trial-and-error search for good things for which consumers are willing to pay.

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Firm Innovation
Qing Liu and Hong Ma (VoxChina) May 12, 2021
This study proposes a novel channel through which trade liberalization may induce innovation through the reduction of trade policy uncertainties (TPU) in destination markets. To verify this link, we utilize the significant reduction of TPU engendered by China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 as a quasi-natural experiment. We find that reduction in TPU significantly encourages firms' patent applications and that firms' innovation responses to TPU reduction vary by productivity, ownership, exporting status, and the irreversibility of investment.

Central bank communication: Remember who's talking
In Do Hwang, Thomas Lustenberger, and Enzo Rossi (VoxEU) May 12, 2021
Central bank communication has become an important policy tool over the past 20 years. This column uses survey data to show that business executives tend to associate a greater volume of speeches from the central bank with the central bank having less of an impact on the economy. Importantly, this effect stems not from speeches given by governors, but by other board members.

The social and economic costs of Covid-19
Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Federico Filippini (VoxEU) May 12, 2021
The long-term social and economic consequences of Covid-19 are uncertain. This column provides a preliminary assessment of the variation in costs across countries and regions, and suggests that developing economies will suffer the most lasting damage. The pandemic has exposed the differential capacity of governments to mitigate health and economic crises and to allocate scarce resources efficiently, while some labour market structures have inhibited government efforts to attenuate the pandemic's impact – impediments that will also shape comparative recoveries.

Central banks in a shifting world: Takeaways from the ECB's Sintra Forum
Philipp Hartmann and Glenn Schepens (VoXEU) May 12, 2021
The 2020 ECB Forum on Central Banking addressed some key issues from the ongoing monetary policy strategy review and embedded them in discussions of major structural changes in advanced economies and the post-COVID recovery. In this column, two of the organisers highlight some of the main points from the papers and debates, including whether globalisation is reversing, implications of climate change, options for formulating the ECB's inflation aim, challenges with informal monetary policy communication, relationships between financial stability and monetary policy, how to make a monetary policy framework robust to deflation or inflation traps and the role of fiscal policy for the recovery from the pandemic.

Tulipmania in Space
Elisabeth Braw (FP) May 12, 2021
SPACs are creating a space bubble that will eventually come crashing back to Earth along with cosmic junk launched during the current frenzy.

Biden's 'America First' Policies Are Spreading Global Pain
Joseph W. Sullivan (FP) May 12, 2021
Like its blatant vaccine nationalism, the administration's unchecked stimulus policies are hurting the world—especially the global poor.

Investors brace for test of nerves as inflation worries mount
Katie Martin (FT) May 13, 2021
Markets face uncertainty as economic growth adds to expectations of interest rate rises.

How India's Covid-19 crisis diminished Narendra Modi
Amy Kazmin, Benjamin Parkin and Jyotsna Singh (FT) May 13, 2021
Many Indians feel abandoned by a leader who ignored signs of a second wave and appears indifferent to their plight.

Inflation Is Here. What Now?
Neil Irwin (NYT) May 13, 2021
Prices are rising fast, in ways that seem temporary, yet this could change expectations in ways that are self-reinforcing.

Are Fannie and Freddie Ready for the Next Housing Crash?
Mark A. Calabria (WSJ) May 13, 2021
A new rule requires them to make 'living wills' for surviving a downturn without taxpayer bailouts.

Don't freak out about inflation yet
Catherine Rampell (WP) May 13, 2021
So far, it looks like prices are rising because of temporary shocks and supply-chain issues.

China's global inflation dam won't hold forever
William Pesek (AT) May 13, 2021
Reopening the world after a once-in-a-century pandemic sure is proving expensive. The 0.8% jump in the US consumer price index in April propelled the most-watched barometer of inflation to a 4.2% annualized pace – the highest since September 2008. As US inflation soars, the control exhibited by the 'workshop of the world' cannot be counted on to last.

Philippines' economy tanks as the virus rages
Jason Castaneda (AT) May 13, 2021
The Philippines is grappling with an intensifying double-crisis – as the Southeast Asian country's economic recession deepens, new Covid-19 variants from India have entered the country and the number of daily infections is high. But President Rodrigo Duterte has defended his handling of the crisis and talked up China's assistance.

Bitcoin Won't Leave Central Bankers in the Dust
Huw Van Steenis (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2021
Digital pounds, dollars and euros are years away, but radical changes in wholesale banking and settlement are coming sooner than you think.

There's a Long Way Down If Inflation Takes Root
John Authers (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2021
A muted reaction to some shocking data suggests markets still believe policy makers will keep control.

Go Ahead, Biden. Borrow Away for Your Plans.
Nir Kaissar and Timothy L O'Brien (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2021
There's little indication from markets or the economy that adding $4 trillion to a $28 trillion debt load would be problematic.

Housing May Be Inflation's Hidden Danger
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2021
The consumer price index's measure of "owners' equivalent rent" hasn't come close to reflecting the red-hot market.

Is This the End of the Age of the Private Equity Turnaround?
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2021
With what's called perpetual capital vehicles, Blackstone and others are buying and holding, much like Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway.

China Must Embrace Remote Work
Nancy Qian (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic spurred a far-reaching shift to telecommuting throughout the West. But China has not followed suit, even though the social and environmental payoffs would be far larger than in the US and Europe.

The EU Is Still Flying Blind
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2021
Given strong public support for the Conference on the Future of Europe, failure to make at least some strides toward developing a shared European vision would amount to a major missed opportunity. Worse, it would discourage those who, for better or for worse, have allowed their expectations to be raised.

Forget the Vaccine Patent Waiver
Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2021
While momentum builds behind a proposal to waive patents on COVID-19 vaccines, removing intellectual property protection would not accelerate the global immunization effort. The sooner the world recognizes that production capacity is not the problem, the better.

Low inflation cannot be taken for granted
FT View May 14, 2021
Recessions often change macroeconomic relationships.

Supply chain worries loom over global economy
John Dizard (FT) May 14, 2021
Cycles of shortages may lead to speculative binges and then deeper recessions spurred by inventory liquidation.

Japan Inc braced for fresh hostile bids
Leo Lewis (FT) May 14, 2021
With a powerful taboo no longer a reliable insulation, companies must turn to more inventive lines of defence.

Emerging markets: risk, reward and Covid
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) May 14, 2021
Retail investors are increasing their exposure, hoping to anticipate a post-pandemic recovery.

Australia largely winning its trade war with China
Helen Clark (AT) May 14, 2021
Australia is often blamed for putting all its eggs and everything else into one basket then shipping the lot to China. Those who worry about Beijing's resultant leverage over Australia may feel vindicated after the travails of 2020 and 2021, but the trade war rooted in geopolitics hasn't net-net hurt the Australian economy or its crucial commodity exports.

India's Covid crisis augurs lost economic decade
William Pesek (AT) May 14, 2021
No top-10 economy has seen its 2021 unravel faster and with greater suspense than India's. Narendra Modi's podium-thumping January 28 Davos speech sure does seem a lifetime ago. There, the prime minister detailed how "India beat all odds in coronavirus fight." It's clear Modi failed to recalibrate India's dynamics when the economic sun was shining, and now the nation will pay the price.

Creating a broad waiver of WTO IP rights during the pandemic
Alan Wm. Wolff (PIIE) May 14, 2021
The Biden administration's decision to support for the waiver of World Trade Organization (WTO) intellectual property (IP) protections for COVID-19 vaccines and engage in serious negotiations to this end came as a complete surprise to seasoned observers of trade policy. It marks another dramatic break by this US administration from past US positions. It was all the more surprising because there was no indication from the US government or any other source that evidence exists that IP rights were a significant impediment to the universally acknowledged goal of defeating COVID-19 everywhere, and not just in wealthier countries.

The Real Reason Why U.S. Bond Yields Are Stuck
Richard Cookson (Bloomberg View) May 14, 2021
Don't think it's because inflation is temporary. It's more to do with the returns on U.S. debt being far better than what's on offer in Europe and Japan.

Economic Demand Is Back. Supply Is the Problem.
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 14, 2021
The difficulty in obtaining raw materials and workers has long-term implications for prices, growth and corporate balance sheets.

The High Cost of Underrating Africa
Hippolyte Fofack (Project Syndicate) May 14, 2021
International credit-rating agencies perennially assign overinflated risks to Africa, irrespective of its improving macroeconomic fundamentals or the global economic environment. These "perception premiums" are one of the region's biggest development challenges.

Vaccine Licensing, Production, and Global Distribution
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) May 14, 2021
Although much of the current COVID-19 vaccine debate is focused on the question of waivers for intellectual-property rights, the transfer of knowledge and technology is only the first part. Equally important are global manufacturing capacity and pricing, either of which could still pose a problem.

The Right Way to Worry
Daron Acemoglu (Project Syndicate) May 14, 2021
After a year in which COVID-19 has suspended normal economic life around the world, humanity has acquired a new appreciation for risk. But simply acknowledging potential threats is merely the beginning of the process; the real challenge comes in deciding which problems warrant our attention, and in what order.

The government as an (effective) venture capitalist
Jessica Bai, Shai Bernstein, Abhishek Dev, and Josh Lerner (VoEU) May 14, 2021
Government funding to boost innovation has seen an uplift since the unfolding of the COVID crisis. Using extensive global data, this column examines how government funding programmes focused on early-stage companies interact with private capital markets, and finds a positive relationship between government funding at this business stage and private capital allocation. Increased reliance on private capital markets enabled governments to mitigate investment frictions, improve capital allocation, and thereby increase local innovation.

Free trade agreements do not always ensure free trade
Jan I. Haaland and Ian Wooton (VoxEU) May 14, 2021
The changes in the UK's trading relationship with the EU are likely to have widespread effects, many of which are yet to be understood in full. This column introduces the issue of compliance with rules of origin requirements within free trade agreements. The authors argue that complying with these rules can present firms with additional production costs that would not have been present had the UK remained a part of the EU.

Inflation wild card unsettles markets
Michael Mackenzie (FT) May 15, 2021
Investors will have to make a call on whether shift in consumer prices is transitory or a regime change.

Consumer-price inflation in America jumps up to 4.2%
Economist May 15, 2021
Shortages and bottlenecks imply more price rises will follow. But will they last?

The bull case for beaten-up Britain
Economist May 15, 2021
The immediate outlook is rosy; structural problems might even be fixed.

Brexit deterred international students from applying to UK universities
Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, and Agnese Romiti (VoxEU) May 15, 2021
Attracting international students is critical for public universities in the UK increasingly facing funding cuts and a diminishing domestic youth population. This column discusses how Brexit may have affected students' willingness to study in the UK and the factors likely driving the students' choices. Brexit significantly lowered applications from EU students, especially for science, technology, engineering and mathematics subjects and for more selective institutions. International student enrolments also dropped, substantiating concerns regarding the ability to attract international talent.

Why radical reform of urban planning is essential
Martin Wolf (FT) May 16, 2021
The idea that we have no land left for houses is absurd. We should base policy on demand, not "need".

Drag Commodity Traders Out of the Shadows.
Javier Blas and Jack Farchy (NYT) May 16, 2021
We need strong laws and clear regulations to shed light on this megapowerful sector of the global economy.

The Rise of Inflation Expectations
WSJ May 16, 2021
Consumers are doubting that prices will remain 'well-anchored.'

Getting trade policy right is crucial to global COVID-19 vaccination
Ken Heydon (EAF) May 16, 2021
Even if the waiver receives the necessary support of all 164 WTO members, this will not prevent intellectual property right restrictions from stopping developing countries from acquiring knowledge of new techniques to design vaccines and to develop the cell lines needed in vaccine manufacture.

No end to COVID-19 pandemic absent international cooperation
Jeremy Youde (EAF) May 16, 2021
Despite widespread acknowledgement that viruses do not respect borders, India's devastating experience with COVID-19 calls into question the degree to which the international community is willing to translate ideas into practice.

Can Digital Cash Make Inflation Worse?
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) May 16, 2021
Central banks should slow down their space race to offer digital currencies until after price pressures ease.

Where Is the Economic Case for Scottish Independence?
Martin Ivens (Bloomberg View) May 16, 2021
There lies uncertainty of what self-rule would look like, and how it would be paid for.

Meritocracy, Not Democracy, Is the Golden Ticket to Growth
Adrian Wooldridge (Bloomberg View) May 16, 2021
The price of abandoning it will be less wealth and more poverty.

Biden Should Fight the Inflation the Fed Ignores
Matthew G Yglesias (Bloomberg View) May 16, 2021
Rising prices for food and energy may not matter to economists, but they do to consumers.

The myths behind the current stock market bubble
John Hussman (FT) May 18, 2021
Central bank liquidity cannot support elevated valuations indefinitely.

Pandemic gives Africa a chance to free itself from aid dependency
Ayoade Alakija (FT) May 17, 2021
Unequal access to vaccines reflects an imbalance in global power that must be corrected.

A revolt against the rich could be sparked by basic demographics
Rhymer Rigby (FT) May 17, 2021
There are now far more millennial adults, some with children, for whom the economy is not delivering.

Central banks seek out riskier assets for reserves in yield drought
Tommy Stubbington (FT) May 17, 2021
Survey shows willingness to buy equities, corporate bonds and emerging market debt.

Learning to Live With Low Fertility
Paul Krugman (NYT) May 17, 2021
Flat population could be a problem, but it can be an opportunity.

How Trump's Steel Tariffs Failed
WSJ May 17, 2021
Prices are high, supplies are low, and promised jobs haven't arrived.

A green bubble? We dissect the investment boom
Economist May 17, 2021
Investors of all stripes are getting on board.

How Monetary Expansion Creates Income and Wealth Inequality
Jonathan Newman (Mises Wire) May 17, 2021
Economic inequality caused by money printing benefits most those who claim to stand up for "the little guy" and denounce "trickle-down" markets. But there is nothing more "trickle down" than government money printing from on high.

Zombies are a symptom of economic weakness, not a cause
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) May 17, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic has revived attention on zombie firms, not only in Japan but around the world. Abundant credit, often from government programs, has enabled loss-making firms to survive. However, worries that zombie firms will drain resources from healthy firms and slow the coming recovery are misplaced. Zombies are a consequence of a weak economy and will either recover or die as the economy strengthens. Most advanced economies, including Japan, have been operating below potential for the past 30 years, creating an environment that allows zombie firms to stagger on. Aggressive monetary and fiscal policies to restore full employment coupled with sound bank supervision will end the problem of zombie firms.

Don't Waive the Jones Act. Scrap It
Bloomberg View May 17, 2021
For more than a century it has benefited the few over the many, while failing to maintain a robust maritime industry.

Don't Trust the Naked Eye to Judge This Recovery
John Authers (Bloomberg View) May 17, 2021
The scale and speed are so unprecedented that it's little wonder so many investors have been caught by surprise already. Caution is wise.

Inflation and Rising Bond Yields Will Hit the ECB's Pain Point
Mark Gilbert and Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) May 17, 2021
Italy's climbing debt burden leaves it more vulnerable than ever to higher borrowing costs. The ECB needs to step in.

Why This Time Really Is Different for Europe
Alexandra Dimitrijevic and Roberto Sifon-Arevalo (Project Syndicate) May 17, 2021
Europe's policy response to the COVID-19 economic crisis has increased budget deficits and public debt but so far cushioned the potential blow to sovereign ratings. The post-pandemic ratings trajectory will depend on governments' ability to deliver sufficient economic growth to restore fiscal balances.

Austerity's Hidden Purpose
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) May 17, 2021
Even if everyone agreed that printing another trillion dollars to finance a basic income for the poor would boost neither inflation nor interest rates, the rich and powerful would still oppose it. After all, their most important interest is not to conserve economic potential, but to preserve the power of the few to compel the many.

Harnessing Africa's Sovereign Wealth
Akim Mohamed Daouda, Uche Orji, and Mamadou Mbaye (Project Syndicate) May 17, 2021
Although African sovereign wealth funds have already shown their effectiveness, their potential remains largely untapped. By mobilizing and leveraging national savings, these funds not only can increase governments' capacity to finance public policies, but also can help to attract much-needed foreign capital.

The Climate X Factor
Sanna Marin (Project Syndicate) May 17, 2021
The climate and biodiversity crises we face demand that we not only shift to carbon-neutral energy sources, but also usher in a circular economy in which a significant share of material resources are reused and repurposed. To reach that goal, the development of new technologies will be crucial.

Inflation and Rising Bond Yields Will Hit the ECB's Pain Point
Pasquale Della Corte, Lucio Sarno, Maik Schmeling, and Christian Wagner (VoxEU) May 17, 2021
In fixed exchange rate systems, default risks tend to have devastating effects on currencies, usually leading to sharp devaluations. However, little is known about the relationship between default expectations and exchange rates in floating rate regimes. This column uses data from a broad set of currencies to uncover a strong link between exchange rate movements and sovereign risk across all exchange rate regimes. This relationship is largely caused by countries' exposure to global sovereign risk factors and shown to be driven by changes in default expectations.

Why Jerome Powell and the Fed Should Ignore the Inflation Hawks
John Cassidy (New Yorker) May 17, 2021
Strong growth and a tight labor market are helping workers make sustained wage gains.

U.S. Tax Policy Can Help Africa's Fight Against Illicit Financial Flows
Audrey Donkor (FP) May 17, 2021
The Biden administration can stop multinational companies, criminals, and kleptocrats from siphoning off Africa's wealth.

Will the Trend of Wage Acceleration Continue? Implications for Consumer Price Inflation in Coming Quarters
Jay Bryson, Azhar Iqbal, Sarah House, and Hop Mathews (WF Econ Group) May 17, 2021
To gauge the extent of wage pressure over the next year, we devise a model to estimate wage growth over that period. Our model suggests there is a 40% probability of "high" wage growth in the next year.

Japan's economy and leader falling in tandem
William Pesek (AT) May 18, 2021
It's hard to know which figure out of Japan this week is more telling: the economy shrinking 5.1% or the government's approval rating falling into the low 30s. In reality, both are inexorably linked. One is feeding directly off the other at the worst possible moment for Asia's second-biggest economy.

Bankruptcy restructurings can help more firms survive
Simeon Djankov and Eva (Yiwen) Zhang (PIIE) May 18, 2021
The COVID-19 economic shock of 2020 cost millions of workers their jobs and shut down countless businesses. Yet, the number of corporate bankruptcy filings fell by 21 percent in major industrial economies compared with 2019 and even more relative to previous years

Is the Fed Missing Anything on Inflation?
Bloomberg View May 18, 2021
And what is more realistic right now: disinflation or rapid inflation?

There's a Better Way to Pay for Infrastructure
Bloomberg View May 18, 2021
One tweak to municipal finance could get more money where it belongs.

The Fed Is Negotiating With Itself on Inflation
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2021
Past forecasting failures help explain why officials appear unfazed by the flashing signals.

Inflation Psychology Is Being Jolted Back to Life
John Authers (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2021
How concerned should the Fed be?

Copper's Record-Breaking Rally May Be About to Take a Pause
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2021
While market signals indicate the recent pace of gains will cool, longer-term prospects still look bullish.

Will the Recovery Last?
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2021
Although some recent high-frequency indicators have cast a shadow on what previously appeared to be a robust, rapid recovery from the pandemic-induced recession, there is still ample cause for optimism. But much will depend on how well policymakers in the major economies manage the foreseeable risks.

Sex and the Chinese Economy
Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2021
As the Chinese government has started to worry about the country's low population growth, it has progressively relaxed its family-planning policy. Policymakers should now go further, and provide a significant financial reward to parents of baby girls.

The Central Banker's New Clothes
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2021
The fact that fiscal policy is now driving monetary policy in the United Kingdom cannot be admitted, and not only to maintain the perception of central-bank independence. More fundamentally, admitting that the Bank of England is an agent of the Treasury would destroy the intellectual edifice of current macroeconomic theory.

A Brexit Post-Mortem for the City
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2021
Almost five years after the Brexit referendum, and five months after Britain's exit from the European Union, the future of London as a global financial center seems secure. But although the City will remain Europe's largest financial marketplace, its Golden Age as Europe's financial capital is over.

The 'Global Sanctions Data Base': Mapping international sanction policies from 1950-2019
Gabriel Felbermayr, Aleksandra Kirilakha, Constantinos Syropoulos, Erdal Yalcin, and Yoto Yotov (VoxEU) May 18, 2021
While the world experienced a golden age of international economic integration in the 1990s and the 2000s, in the more recent past there has been an emergence of interstate political conflicts, political polarisation, and extensive use of coercive sanctions intended to limit the international movement of goods, assets, and people. This column presents findings from the newly updated Global Sanctions Data Base, which now includes the years of the Trump presidency and provides a more comprehensive coverage of 1,101 sanction cases in the years from 1950 to 2019.

Why global uncertainty is declining
Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri (VoxEU) May 18, 2021
The latest update of the World Uncertainty Index indicates that global uncertainty has fallen back to its long-run average after reaching a historical high in 2020. This column describes how this is driven by a significant decline in two key drivers of global uncertainty over the last few years: US–China trade tensions and Brexit negotiations. A sub-index of the World Uncertainty Index, the World Pandemic Uncertainty Index, reveals that uncertainty related to COVID-19 is also starting to subside, especially in developed countries where vaccines rollout has started to pick up. Given this, and because US–China trade and Brexit tensions impacted developed countries more, the authors observe a more salient decline in uncertainty in developed countries than in developing ones.

USAID's Big Contracts Don't Pay Off
Walter Kerr and Maya Guzdar (FP) May 18, 2021
Recently confirmed U.S. Agency for International Development head Samantha Power has a strong vision for the agency's future, but to really change things she'll need to transform its business model.

The IEA has delivered an overdue message
FT View May 19, 2021
Oil companies are on notice that the fossil fuel era is coming to an end.

Tech stocks hold promise despite recent jitters
Wei Li (FT) May 19, 2021
Long-term investment case for sector remains intact even with inflation pick-up.

There are reasons to worry about US inflation
Martin Wolf (FT) May 19, 2021
Both monetary and fiscal policy are, by historical standards, wildly expansionary.

Unhedged: QE and stock prices
Robert Armstrong (FT) May 19, 2021
And why doesn't Warren Buffett like Wells?

Europe Balks at Biden's Tax Plan
WSJ May 19, 2021
Countries don't want to punish themselves to rescue bad U.S. policy.

Biden's Plans Are Already Hurting the Recovery
Phil Gramm and Rick Scott (WSJ) May 19, 2021
As anti-production policies take hold, supply and worker shortages appear and inflation looms.

Yes, it's true, the world is running out of sand
Dave Makichuk (AT) May 19, 2021
Who would think, that in this day and age, sand would become such a desired commodity, that it would give rise to a "Sand Mafia." Strange as that may seem, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) has warned of said groups, reportedly known to be operating in countries such as Cambodia, Vietnam, Kenya and Sierra Leone.

Inflation Is Great If You're Already Rich
Doug French (Mises Wire) May 19, 2021
We've seen pictures of empty shelves in Venezuela. Meantime, the one-year return on the Caracas stock exchange is 1,804.92 percent. If you're already rich in assets, inflation is a big nothing burger. But it's a problem if you're poor.

This Is How Europe Can Push Back Against China and Russia
Andreas Kluth (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2021
A huge infrastructure project by 12 eastern EU states is an obvious geopolitical opportunity.

The ECB's Financial Stability Report Is Scary Reading
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2021
As Christine Lagarde knows, this is not the time to submit to monetary hawks.

Markets Fret the Fed Is Making a Big Mistake
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2021
U.S. central bankers appear unconcerned by conditions that increasingly argue for a tempering of their extremely easy monetary policy. Markets are rightly worried.

There's No Vanishing Act for China's Hidden Debt
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2021
Problem infrastructure can't be turned into healthy investments simply by relabeling.

Multilateralism or Bust
Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) May 19, 2021
Crises such as climate change and COVID-19 require multilateral responses, and a critical mass of countries can alter the course of events, for better or worse. Despite current geopolitical tensions, leaders must not lose sight of major global threats – and of the need to find common ground.

How to Vaccinate Every Country
David Malpass (Project Syndicate) May 19, 2021
The current approach to COVID-19 vaccination – using limited vaccine supplies to protect low-risk populations in a handful of countries while low- and middle-income economies wait indefinitely for doses – doesn't make sense for anyone. A successful global vaccination effort must be equitable, and it must stand on three pillars.

The Right Incentives for Global Vaccine Access
Michele Goodwin and Gregory Shaffer (Project Syndicate) May 19, 2021
A temporary intellectual-property waiver for COVID-19 vaccines will not boost access, because the main obstacle isn't patents, but trade secrets. With political will, however, the threat of an IP waiver can help shift vaccine producers' incentives and catalyze mass production for low- and middle-income countries.

Doing Business in China: Parental Background and Government Intervention Determine Who Owns Business
Ruixue Jia, Xiaohuan Lan, and Gerard Padró i Miquel (VoxChina) May 19, 2021
The children of cadres have a higher likelihood of owning business in China, and this relationship varies greatly with government intervention in the economy. Connections with government are likely to be the explanation behind this pattern.

EU fiscal policies in 2020
Martin Larch, Janis Malzubris, and Stefano Santacroce (VoxEU) May 19, 2021
In 2020, EU member states launched massive fiscal measures to mitigate the economic and social fallout of the Covid pandemic. The activation of the severe economic downturn clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, coupled with a decisive intervention of the ECB, offered member states the flexibility to stage their fiscal response. As this column reveals, however, a closer look through the lens of an expenditure benchmark highlights important cross-country differences reflecting deeper issues. Countries with very high debt and/or high sustainability risks are bound by their meagre growth prospects. If unaddressed, future reviews of the EU fiscal rules may buy time, but not solve the underlying issues.

The ghost of Smoot-Hawley tells why America isn't too big to avoid retaliation
Kris Mitchener, Kevin O'Rourke, and Kirsten Wandschneider (VoxEU) May 19, 2021
The Trump administration's pursuit of protectionist trade policies was predicated to some extent on the belief that America was too lucrative a market to face retaliation. Using the most detailed data set of bilateral trade flows constructed to date for the interwar period, this column shows that in fact the US faced substantial and widespread retaliation from trade partners in response to protectionist measures employed in the wake of the Great Depression. Exports to retaliating countries fell by as much as 33%.

Do Developing Economies Have an External Debt Problem? Part II: Which Creditor Countries Are Most Exposed?
Jay Bryson, Brendan McKenna, and Hop Mathews (WF Econ Group) May 19, 2021
Advanced economies could experience economic and financial fallout from external debt crises in developing economies. In the second report in a two-part series, we analyze which advanced economies have the highest degrees of economic and financial exposure to the developing world.

Don't bet against China's investment-led growth model
Arthur Kroeber (FT) May 20, 2021
Stronger outlook compared with US supports gains in renminbi over the dollar.

Resilience of remittances proves a lifeline for developing economies
Delphine Strauss (FT) May 20, 2021
Workers sending cash home has helped ease blow of pandemic despite drop-off in migration.

The best businesses are often born in the worst times
John Thornhill (FT) May 20, 2021
A wave of pandemic-inspired entrepreneurship is washing over the world.

NFTs: the race is on to pick the winners
David Stevenson (FT) May 20, 2021
From artworks to digital racehorses, real money is being made.

When economic tribes go to war
Gillian Tett (FT) May 20, 2021
The Biden administration's fiscal plans are attracting criticism from former Democrat advisers.

Bitcoin's growing energy problem: 'It's a dirty currency'
Katie Martin and Billy Nauman (FT) May 20, 2021
Elon Musk has highlighted the cryptocurrency's environmental impact and governments are starting to take notice.

Technobabble, Libertarian Derp and Bitcoin
Paul Krugman (NYT) May 20, 2021
Rising asset prices don't mean that silly ideas make sense.

Is It Time to Panic About Inflation? Ask These 5 Questions First.
Neil Irwin (NYT) May 20, 2021
Focus on exactly how and why prices are changing over time, and how these shifts might affect you.

A Bad Infrastructure Bargain
WSJ May 20, 2021
The Senate talks on a bill are all about money, not policy compromise.

Great Inflation Expectations Won't Save the Fed
Joseph C. Sternberg (WSJ) May 20, 2021
Jawbone all you want, both Main Street and Wall Street know price high jinks when they see them.

Checking the Receipts from Pandemic-Related Spending
Chady El Khoury, Jiro Honda, Johan Mathisen, and Etienne Yehoue (IMF) May 20, 2021
The IMF presses for better governance through greater transparency.

How Families Fuel Economic Development
Gor Mkrtchian (Mises Wire) May 20, 2021
Stable families offer better conditions for specialization and economies of scale. This in turn fuels both social and economic development.

How We Digitize Finance Will Reveal Society's Values
Sandy Pentland and Douglas Elliott (BRINK) May 20, 2021
COVID-19 has accelerated the take up of digital technology across the economy, and few areas are changing as quickly as money itself. Although these innovations offer convenience, speed and security, they require some tough decisions about privacy and anonymity.

Will Modi's push for economic self-reliance succeed?
Suman Bery (Bruegel) May 20, 2021
In its recovery, India will wish to consolidate market access for its export of services to rich countries and make the country's growing market most attractive to the latest technology.

How US trade policy can support climate change goals
Jeffrey J. Schott (PIIE) May 20, 2021
Responding to President Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s charge to Cabinet members to contribute to the effort to decarbonize the US economy, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai has put forward useful proposals on how trade policy can support solutions to global warming. While trade measures can complement essential domestic carbon mitigation efforts, they also can inhibit progress, if new restrictions are applied against green subsidies or in response to carbon border adjustment measures (CBAMs) coming soon from Europe and possibly others. Ambassador Tai will have to work closely with climate diplomats to ensure that the enforcement of US trade laws does not undercut international climate goals.

A long-term view of COVID-19's impact on the rise of the global consumer class
Wolfgang Fengler and Homi Kharas (Brookings) May 20, 2021
The growth of the global middle class seems unstoppable.

Bond Investors Love Greece. Really.
Matthew A Winkler (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2021
Which country became the symbol of financial chaos after 2008? The one that now has the world's best-performing sovereign debt.

Mario Draghi Masks the Longer-Term Danger for Italy
Rachel Sanderson (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2021
The former ECB chief has lifted his country's stature on the European stage, but he can't avoid Italy's ugly national politics.

The Strongest Sign Yet That Inflation Is Transitory
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2021
After a year of soaring prices, some builders — and homebuyers — are beginning to step back. The rest of the economy may follow suit.

Why the Bitcoin Crash Was a Big Win for Cryptocurrencies
Jim Bianco (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2021
Under extreme stress, the decentralized finance system worked as designed.

Artificial Intelligence Is America's Achilles Heel Against China
James G Stavridis (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2021
Unless Big Tech, universities and the Pentagon can work together, China's government-run approach will surpass U.S. efforts.

Mark Your Calendar. It's Time for a Taper Tantrum
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2021
Eight years ago, almost to the day, emerging markets went haywire when the Fed began to talk about reining in post-financial crisis stimulus. We may be on the verge of a sequel.

India Inc.'s Profits Won't Survive Costs, Covid
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2021
The second surge is different. People's money is going toward medical expenses, and that will starve margins at consumer companies.

Germany's Ineffective Green Unilateralism
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2021
Climate change is a serious problem for humanity, but ambitious unilateral action by governments is self-defeating and will achieve little. Without binding international agreements, Germany and the European Union risk becoming global guinea pigs whose fate will deter others from emulating them.

Public debt and economic recovery
Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, and Ralph Luetticke (VoxEU) May 20, 2021
Debt-financed fiscal expansions have been a critical feature in many countries' policy response to Covid-19. This column revisits the role of public debt in stimulating economic recovery. The authors identify both short-run and long-run effects, highlighting that higher public debt has small effects on the capital stock but leads to a sizable decline of the liquidity premium, which increases the fiscal burden of debt. Further, the revenue-maximising level of public debt is positive and has increased to 60% of GDP post-2010.

Better preparing the world for the next pandemic
FT View May 21, 2021
Reform of the WHO and a new framework of laws and institutions are needed.

Active vs passive: what my 'moonshot' research actually shows
Hendrik Bessembinder (FT) May 21, 2021
A concentrated stock portfolio can deliver outsized gains if the investor is skilled or fortunate enough.

Are ageing populations really bad for the economy?
Merryn Somerset Webb (FT) May 21, 2021
Don't believe the myth that an ageing population means economic decline.

Cryptocurrency holders take on central banks at their peril
Katie Martin (FT) May 21, 2021
The Fed, ECB and Bank of England are scathing about the speculative risks of modish digital tokens.

Biden's Global Tax Trouble
WSJ May 21, 2021
His corporate minimum tax rate is falling, as other countries rebel.

A Proposal to End the COVID-19 Pandemic
Kristalina Georgieva, Gita Gopinath, and Ruchir Agarwal (IMF) May 21, 2021
Ending the pandemic is a solvable problem but requires further coordinated global action.

Covid Boosted Productivity. Post-Covid Will Boost It More.
Michael R Strain (Bloomberg View) May 21, 2021
The pandemic taught valuable lessons about the benefits and shortcomings of remote work. Businesses will apply them.

Bitcoin Is a Lot Like the Art Market
Allison Schrager (Bloomberg View) May 21, 2021
Both cryptocurrencies and contemporary art rely on scarcity and hype because they have no other real value — though crypto has less price control.

Europe's Digital Future
Margrethe Vestager and Anu Bradford (Project Syndicate) May 21, 2021
In recent years, the European Union has unveiled a series of ambitious legislative and regulatory packages to rein in problems endemic to the new digital economy. Can leading the world in tech governance help to establish Europe's place in the twenty-first century?

How Not to Launch a Digital Currency
Katharina Pistor (Project Syndicate) May 21, 2021
The story of Facebook's failed effort to launch a global digital currency and payment system is reminiscent of the historic struggle between secular and religious authorities. One clear lesson for other monetary aspirants is that it is risky business to reach for the crown jewel of state sovereignty.

The distinctive character of policy-driven stock market jumps
Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, and Marco Sammon (VoxEU) May 21, 2021
When the stock market moves in a big way, journalists try to explain why. This column uses next-day newspaper accounts to characterise the drivers of more than 6,000 big daily moves ('jumps') across 16 national stock markets. Policy-driven jumps account for a greater share of upward than downward jumps in all countries. Jumps attributed to monetary policy foreshadow much lower levels of future stock market volatility than other jumps. In another striking pattern, US-related news drives one-third of national stock market jumps in other countries, emphasising the role of the US in the international monetary and financial system.

Financing climate change: International agreements and lending
Yener Altunbas, David Marques-Ibanez, Alessio Reghezza, Costanza Rodriguez d'Acri, and Martina Spaggiari (VoxEU) May 21, 2021
The Paris Agreement explicitly recognises the need to "make finance flows compatible with a pathway toward low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development". This column looks at the impact of the agreement on bank lending and finds that following the agreement, European banks reallocated credit away from polluting firms. In the aftermath of President Trump's 2017 announcement of a US withdrawal from the agreement, lending by European banks to polluting firms in the US decreased even further. The findings suggest that the announcement of green policy initiatives can have a significant impact combating climate change via the banking sector.

Competition Can Be Good for the Developing World
Branko Milanovic (FA) May 21, 2021
But the United States, like China, needs to offer material gains.

How Corruption Derails Development in Malawi
Madalitso Wills Kateta (FP) May 21, 2021
Promises of good governance haven't stopped officials from raiding the public purse in one of the world's poorest countries.

The Republic of Congo Is a 'Dark Debt' Pioneer
Ricardo Soares de Oliveira and Olivier Vallée (FP) May 21, 2021
The African nation's leaders have developed new public financing schemes that generate vast amounts of money—and mostly benefit themselves.

G7 must bear the burden of vaccinating the world
Gordon Brown (FT) May 22, 2021
Time is short if the battle against Covid-19 is to be won and the economic gains realised.

The premium paid for US stocks faces a test
Michael Mackenzie (FT) May 22, 2021
Strong earnings are needed to sustain high valuations, particularly in technology.

How can bitcoin become money if it is too valuable to spend?
Brendan Greeley (FT) May 22, 2021
The cryptocurrency has risen in value but is meant to be more than an asset.

Italy could soon get a hard-right government
Economist May 22, 2021
Worrying tremors are coming out of Europe's most indebted economy.

How Greece became Europe's unlikely model student
Economist May 22, 2021
So long as its finances are in order, no one cares what else it does.

How high local public debt and local public banks crowd out private investment
Mathias Hoffmann, Iryna Stewen, and Michael Stiefel (VoxEU) May 22, 2021
Germany's current account surplus and corporate savings have both been increasing in the last decade. This column shows that German private investment has been low because it has been crowded out by local public bank lending to municipalities. Banks' statutory public lending requirements and the debt brake have both played a role in this, exacerbating the contractionary effect of fiscal consolidation.

How monetary policy affects the distribution of income
Niklas Amberg, Thomas Jansson, Mathias Klein, and Anna Rogantini Picco (VoxEU) May 23, 2021
Fully understanding the distributional consequences of monetary policy requires looking at its impact over the entire income distribution and not simply at summary inequality measures like the Gini coefficient. Using uncensored administrative income data for Sweden, this column shows that while a monetary policy loosening substantially affects incomes across the entire income distribution, it does so relatively more in the tails, providing a U-shaped response pattern. The effects in the bottom are primarily driven by changes in labour income, whereas the effects in the top are mainly due to disparities in capital income.

A good chance to reform global corporate taxation
FT View May 23, 2021
The world must engage with Joe Biden's proposal of a minimum tax.

Boris Johnson confronts hard choices of his free trade agenda
FT View May 23, 2021
Australia deal is a prize for UK government but would set precedents.

Beware the ketchup-bottle economy
Martin Sandbu (FT) May 23, 2021
There are reasons to think inflationary pressures could give way to disinflationary ones.

What Does Bitcoin Volatility Mean for Other Assets?
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 23, 2021
Here are four crucial questions about crypto contagion.

Unhedged: Talking bubbles with Jeremy Grantham
Robert Armstrong (FT) May 24, 2021
Also: yes, QE does too put money in the public's hands.

The Covid protectionism that stays covert
Alan Beattie (FT) May 24, 2021
Export restrictions remain far more widespread than the official data show.

How inflation fears are complicating Biden's political future
Paul Waldman (WP) May 24, 2021
Republicans are licking their lips. Biden has to show voters he's delivering for them.

China to cut debt, boost yuan to tackle inflation
David P. Goldman (AT) May 24, 2021
While the United States creates demand at a record peacetime rate through massive deficit spending and ultra-expensive monetary policy, China's central bank and regulators want to taper credit growth from banks and suppress shadow financing across the economy.

Fit for Purpose—Adapting IMF Advice to a New Economic Landscape
Fabian Bornhorst and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu (IMF) May 24, 2021
Modernizing the Fund's surveillance framework.

The Fed Should Say It's Ready to Rethink
Bloomberg View May 24, 2021
When the facts change, even central banks should be willing to change their minds.

Don't Count on Another Roaring '20s Stock Market
Nir Kaissar (Bloomberg View) May 24, 2021
A century ago, the market was the cheapest on record going back at least 140 years. Today's, by contrast, has been more expensive only once before.

Biden's Trumpy Start on Trade
Anne O. Krueger (Project Syndicate) May 24, 2021
After declaring that "America is back," US President Joe Biden has been busy reversing much of Donald Trump's toxic legacy. But a glaring exception has been trade policy, where a troubling continuity has cast doubt on the new administration's ability to achieve its broader policy goals.

Leaders and Laggards in the Post-Pandemic Recovery
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) May 24, 2021
While some major economies are recovering fast from the pandemic-induced recession, others are languishing, and still others remain in a state of acute crisis. The extent to which these global inequalities persist will depend on a range of factors, and will have profound implications for social, political, and geopolitical stability.

The Disastrous Neglect of Neglected Tropical Diseases
Michael Kremer and Edward Miguel (Project Syndicate) May 24, 2021
With the COVID-19 pandemic pushing even more of the world's population into poverty and increasing the risk of debilitating illness, now is the time to redouble our efforts to combat neglected tropical diseases. And yet, increasing demands on government budgets seem poised to halt – and even reverse – hard-won progress.

Jump-starting investment for a strong and even recovery
Debora Revoltella and Rolf Strauch (VoxEU) May 24, 2021
Jump-starting investment after Covid-19 is a crucial challenge for the sustainability of the recovery. This column highlights that incentives to re-launch investment remain crucial. Viable and new firms need to have access to additional new financing as we emerge from the crisis. Debt finance cannot be the only option. Incentives for recapitalisation of companies and access to equity or equity-type finance become increasingly important. The legacies of the pandemic in the financial sector need to be worked out quickly. European and government support complementing post-pandemic bank and capital market financing will be critical to a strong and sustained recovery.

What's Happening with the Federal Budget and Debt Ceiling?
Michael Pugliese (WF Econ Group) May 24, 2021
With infrastructure and taxes stealing the news headlines, two key deadlines related to the federal budget and debt ceiling are quietly creeping closer. What will happen as it becomes crunch time?

Fiscal Multiplier at the Zero Bound: Evidence from Japan
Ethan Goode, Zheng Liu, and Thuy Lan Nguyen (FRBSF Econ Letter) May 24, 2021
The United States has implemented large-scale fiscal policy measures to help households and businesses cushion the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and to strengthen the recovery. The Federal Reserve has also supported the economy by keeping its policy rate at the zero lower bound. Evidence from Japan suggests that, in a sustained zero-bound environment, an unexpected increase in government spending has much larger and more persistent effects on real

America Hasn't Lost Its Demographic Advantage
Nicholas Eberstadt (FA) May 24, 2021
Its rivals are in much worse shape.

The Dark Side of Congo's Cobalt Rush
Nicolas Niarchos (New Yorker) May 24, 2021
Cell phones and electric cars rely on the mineral, causing a boom in demand. Locals are hunting for this buried treasure—but are getting almost none of the profit.

We can end the Covid pandemic in the next year
Martin Wolf (FT) May 25, 2021
This is a global war but bold action on vaccines gives our governments the opportunity to win it.

Europe must fix its fiscal rules
Maria Demertzis (FT) May 25, 2021
The pandemic has shown that the EU's spending framework reflects an outdated economic orthodoxy.

The Fed is no longer markets' best friend
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) May 25, 2021
Central bank and markets face tricky pivots to avoid damage from a policy mistake.

China's renminbi hits three-year high against dollar
Thomas Hale (FT) May 25, 2021
Strength of currency poses challenge as Beijing tries to maintain economic growth momentum.

The demise of the dollar? Reserve currencies in the era of 'going big'
John Plender (FT) May 25, 2021
The extraordinary stimulus measures in the US could undermine confidence in the greenback if inflation takes off.

Industrial Policy, Same Old Politics
WSJ May 25, 2021
Interest groups carve up legislation meant to meet the China challenge.

Ban Cryptocurrency to Fight Ransomware
Lee Reiners (WSJ) May 25, 2021
The existence of bitcoin and the rest benefits nobody except criminals and speculators.

Biden's Plan Encourages True Supply-Side Economics
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) May 25, 2021
Preschool and paid family leave are investments in the future in a way tax cuts for the rich aren't.

An investment bonanza is coming
Economist May 25, 2021
Firms across the world are spending big. We analyse their capital-expenditure plans.

Time for US to restore a strong dollar
William Pesek (AT) May 25, 2021
A prominent People's Bank of China official has made headlines by arguing Beijing should guide the yuan higher. His reasoning? To tame the effects of surging global commodity prices. Lyu Jinzhong, the PBOC's director of research and statistics, has the right idea.

Indonesia's economy slowly coming back to life
John McBeth (AT) May 25, 2021
The stage is set for a return to positive growth in Indonesia, but much still depends on current uncertainties, including the availability of vaccines, the potential harm done by new Covid variants in the wake of the Eid al-Fitr festivities and an uneven global recovery triggering capital outflows.

It's Time for Oil and Gas to Choose Their Futures
Alejandro Vanags and Juan Trebino (BRINK) May 25, 2021
Oil prices are rebounding to pre-COVID levels as demand slowly returns — but the challenge isn't over for independent oil and gas companies. Moving forward, they need to focus on their impact on climate change.

Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Fix Bad Policy
Alberto Gallo (Bloomberg View) May 25, 2021
The Federal Reserve and its peers would be able to tier interest rates to better target individual sectors of the economy.

Mapping the Path to Carbon Neutrality
Hong Nam-ki (Project Syndicate) May 25, 2021
As countries around the world consider whether and how to raise their decarbonization ambitions under the Paris climate agreement, South Korea hopes to serve as an example for others. With the right investments and policies, even a country ill-suited for wind or solar power can achieve carbon neutrality.

Do Free Markets Still Beat Central Planning?
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) May 25, 2021
Institutional arrangements are complex systems, shaped by history, geography, and culture. The objective should not be to identify a one-size-fits-all approach, but rather to devise the combination of characteristics that would deliver the greatest good for the greatest number of people, with the right checks and balances.

Will Corruption Sink EU Convergence?
Anders Aslund (Project Syndicate) May 25, 2021
The economic divergence between Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union and those that did not is one of the more underappreciated geopolitical developments of the past 30 years. But those that did join are now backsliding on essential democratic criteria, with worrying implications for the bloc.

The Ghost of Arthur Burns
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) May 25, 2021
The US Federal Reserve is insisting that recent increases in the price of food, construction materials, used cars, personal health products, gasoline, and appliances reflect transitory factors that will quickly fade with post-pandemic normalization. But what if they are a harbinger, not a "noisy" deviation?

Fed spillovers are stronger and more encompassing than the ECB's
Michele Ca' Zorzi, Luca Dedola, Georgios Georgiadis, Marek Jarocinski, Livio Stracca, and Georg Strasser (VoxEU) May 25, 2021
There is growing need to understand the international dimension of monetary policy. This column argues that ECB and Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions spill over to other countries asymmetrically. At the bilateral level, the Fed's impact on the euro area is material to firms' financial conditions and economic activity. Conversely, the impact of the ECB's actions on the US economy is minimal. On a global scale, both central banks' monetary policies matter for other countries, but the Fed's monetary policy has a more sizeable impact, particularly on foreign financial variables, such as corporate bond spreads.

Resilience of the Financial System to Natural Disasters
Patrick Bolton, Marcin Kacperczyk, Harrison Hong, and Xavier Vives (VoxEU) May 25, 2021
The Covid-19 pandemic and recession have reinforced the need to evaluate the economic and financial impact of natural disasters, providing a pointer to the damaging effects that climate change may induce. This column introduces the third report in the Future of Banking series from the IESE Business School and CEPR, which explores the ways in which natural disaster risks are different from more familiar forms of financial risk – and how banks, asset managers andcentral banks are beginning to grapple with these risks. The authors call for a combination of public interventions and private sector mitigation strategies to reduce the long-term implications of climate-related events

Are Government Benefits Contributing to Worker Shortages?
Sheelah Kolhatkar (New Yorker) May 25, 2021
Republicans have argued that unemployment supplements are causing worker shortages. But some progressive economists believe that they are helping workers drive a harder bargain for their time.

International Economic Outlook: May 2021
Nick Bennenbroek and Brendan McKenna (WF Econ Group) May 25, 2021
The case for near-term U.S. dollar strength has become less compelling as the perception of U.S. economic outperformance has lessened, some global central banks have started to adjust monetary policy in a less accommodative direction, and volatility signals from foreign exchange markets have receded. We now expect broad stability in the U.S. dollar over the near term and still forecast U.S. dollar weakness over the longer term. The outlook for many European economies has brightened as they begin to emerge from COVID-related restrictions that had restrained growth. U.K. activity and survey data have surged in recent months, while a rise in key PMI and KOF confidence surveys in the Eurozone and Switzerland point to a significant upswing in economic momentum for those economies moving forward. Our outlook for emerging economy growth is little changed from a month ago as mixed trends in China and residual COVID concerns, in countries such as India and Brazil, have not seen more upbeat sentiment for some developed economies spill over to emerging economies as of yet.

India's Covid vaccine rollout favours the wealthy and tech-savvy
Amy Kazmin (FT) May 26, 2021
Inoculation centres offering free jabs are running out of supplies.

US protectionism: trade barriers and soaring economy gird steel industry
Lex (FT) May 26, 2021
Prices are three times higher than a year ago on the back of demand for durable goods.

Oil producers face costly transition as world looks to net-zero future
Anjli Raval, Chloe Cornish, and Neil Munshi (FT) May 26, 2021
Many fossil fuel-dependent economies will struggle to diversify despite intense pressure to hit 2050 targets.

Reopening Is Inflation's Cure, Not Cause
Jason M. Thomas (WSJ) May 26, 2021
Expect prices to moderate as demand shifts to travel and other experiences from consumer goods.

Europe's Two-Speed Recovery
Alex Privitera (BRINK) May 26, 2021
In Europe, vaccinations are gaining pace, and there are early signs that the economy is rebounding — but not all is well. It has been clear for some time that recovery in EU countries will not proceed in a synchronized manner.

The Shape of Things to Come? FCDO After the Cuts
Ranil Dissanayake (CGD) May 26, 2021
ODA may be coming 'home' to FCDO—for now.

Current vaccine proposals are not enough to end the pandemic
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) May 26, 2021
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently called for an accelerated global effort to distribute vaccines to end the COVID-19 pandemic. That step is most welcome because, as highlighted here and here, past official statements by world leaders have fallen short of delivering specific policies to reach desperate populations, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The IMF was also right to recognize that the cost of containing the COVID-19 pandemic is far less than the overall benefits for the global economy of full vaccine coverage. But the IMF could have gone further by recognizing that the inefficient vaccine allocation rules currently in place must be replaced by new cooperative institutional structures and more concrete steps by the Group of Twenty (G20) countries.

Cutting aid undermines the vision of Global Britain
FT View May 26, 2021
Reducing funding will harm vital projects and could rebound on the UK.

A qualitative guide to the quants
Jane Buchan (FT) May 26, 2021
What to look for in a manager after a dark winter for the sector.

India's Covid vaccine rollout favours the wealthy and tech-savvy
Amy Kazmin (FT) May 26, 2021
Inoculation centres offering free jabs are running out of supplies.

A rebounding economy won't mean a return to the status quo
Gillian Tett (FT) May 26, 2021
'Covid has exposed inequality and reminded people just how uncertain the future is. There is a search for protection'.

US protectionism: trade barriers and soaring economy gird steel industry
Lex (FT) May 26, 2021
Prices are three times higher than a year ago on the back of demand for durable goods.

The U.S. Shouldn't Let China Take the Lead on Trade
Bloomberg View May 26, 2021
If Washington doesn't strengthen economic ties with its partners in Asia, Beijing will.

The Fed Is Suffering From Tantrum Paranoia
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) May 26, 2021
The dangers of losing the market's confidence on inflation are worse than those from cutting back the flow of quantitative easing.

When Is a Dollar Not a Dollar?
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg View) May 26, 2021
If the Federal Reserve issues digital currency, it will forever change the U.S. financial industry.

The State's New Balancing Act
Jaideep Prabhu (Project Syndicate) May 26, 2021
Today, new digital technologies and organizational structures can enable the state to balance policy effectiveness with citizens' freedom. But achieving this will require governments to be responsive, inclusive, willing to experiment, and entrepreneurial.

How to create a durable economic recovery from Covid
Chris Giles (FT) May 27, 2021
Simply pumping up demand and hoping productivity growth will follow is unlikely to succeed.

Investors are underestimating Europe's upturn
Graham Secker (FT) May 27, 2021
Impact of EU recovery fund is more of a game-changer than many in markets acknowledge.

The Economy Is Spinning Its Wheels, and About to Take Off
Paul Krugman (NYT) May 27, 2021
The bad news is a byproduct of extraordinary good news.

A Temporary U.S.-China Trade Truce Starts to Look Durable
Keith Bradsher (NYT) May 27, 2021
Last year's deal could set the rules for global commerce for years to come, leaving the door open to lavish Chinese subsidies and unilateral American tariffs.

International tax debate moves from digital focus to global minimum
Rebecca Christie (Bruegel) May 27, 2021
International corporate tax reform is coming closer if countries can set aside their differences and work for progress rather than the perfect deal.

Spain: Fostering the recovery
Müge Adalet McGowan (OECD EcoScope) May 27, 2021
Structural reforms are key to a durable and inclusive recovery.

1970s Inflation Is So 50 Years Ago
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg View) May 27, 2021
Too much has changed about economic policymaking to interpret the most recent sustained period of spiraling prices as a cautionary tale for today.

Can Powell Raise Rates With the Arch of an Eyebrow?
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 27, 2021
Former Chair Alan Greenspan led the Fed slowly and instinctively, with sparse details. A break from the furious pace and hyper-transparency of the past year looks mighty appealing.

The China Threat Is Being Overhyped
Minxin Pei (Bloomberg View) May 27, 2021
The country has neither the capabilities nor the motivation to pose an existential danger to the U.S.

European and African Leaders Call for a New Deal for Africa
Emmanuel Macron, Paul Kagame, Cyril Ramaphosa, and Macky Sall (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2021
In one year, the pandemic has halted a quarter-century of steady economic growth in Africa, disrupted value chains, and caused an unprecedented increase in inequality and poverty. As a result, the entire world is at risk, because the global economy could lose one of its future drivers of growth.

Vaccines and the West's Credibility Crisis
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2021
Trust is a precious commodity. By failing to do more to help the rest of the world get vaccinated as quickly as possible, Western advanced economies are squandering their most important resource and jeopardizing the international system upon which their prosperity is based.

The Post-Pandemic Whiplash Awaiting the World's Poor
Kaushik Basu (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2021
Unlike a pandemic that puts rich and poor alike at risk, the kind of economic crisis currently simmering in much of the developing world is easy to ignore. But unless national governments and multilateral organizations act quickly, today's looming threat will be tomorrow's front-page news.

Europe's Strategic Autonomy Trap
Clemens Fuest (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2021
Europe's share of the global economy may be declining, but the EU remains a major economic power with strong ties to the rest of the world. If its pursuit of strategic autonomy devolves into a push for protectionism or even autarky, it risks losing that status – and becoming more vulnerable than ever.

A Financial New Deal for Palestine
Raja Khalidi (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2021
The COVID-19 economic shock and the recent conflict with Israel highlight the importance of boosting the Palestinian economy. For starters, the International Monetary Fund should acknowledge Palestine's fiscal progress over the past quarter-century, and offer it a financial New Deal with upgraded status.

Factoryless manufacturers and international trade in the age of global value chains
Yuqing Xing (VoxEU) May 27, 2021
Factoryless goods producers are a fruitful consequence of the evolution of global value chains. This column shows that the trade value of their output may be largely underestimated. The true export value to producers like Apple and Nike to countries like China – where many of these companies' products are assembled – is far higher than the value of the tangible good itself, when embedded intangible assets and IP are taken into account. Yet this is not reflected in the measurement of bilateral trade flows. If it were, it would paint a very different picture of US exports and the trade deficit.

A turning point for Big Oil
FT View May 28, 2021
Climate activism, but not necessarily the climate, has scored some sizeable victories.

Why pandemic benefits spell trouble for universal basic income
Merryn Somerset Webb (FT) May 28, 2021
The current labour shortage suggests those receiving high unemployment support may not rush back to work.

Big Oil has learnt it needs to listen on climate change
Gillian Tett (FT) May 28, 2021
Activists issue ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell with a wake-up call.

Don't blame GDP for a slow post-Covid reopening
Tim Harford (FT) May 28, 2021
While the library and pool were in full plague mode, I also visited a bustling restaurant that was so normal as to be disorienting.

Why young investors bet the farm on cryptocurrencies
Claer Barrett (FT) May 28, 2021
The racy, high-risk asset class has filled a void of investment advice for the average young person.

Inflation and markets are tied
Robert Armstrong (FT) May 28, 2021
Plus more thoughts on housing.

The real motivation behind China's digital yuan
Dale Aluf and Daniela Barzilai (AT) May 28, 2021
China does not seem to want people to think that its digital yuan holds any potential to influence global power dynamics. But analysts on the other side of the Pacific seem to harbor a different view, with a famous bond manager recently penning an article arguing that "China's digital currency poses a threat to dollar dominance."

Asia's gasping economies run out of breathing space
William Pesek (AT) May 28, 2021
Asia's developing economies are in harm's way to a much greater degree in 2021 than they were in 2013, the year of the notorious "taper tantrum." The reason: the dramatic measures governments have taken to support cratering economies. Debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios have surged over the last 18 months.

Emerging Markets Through the Looking Glass: Signs of Growth Potential Post-Pandemic
Gene Frieda & Pramol Dhawan (PIMCO) May 28, 2021
Natural herd immunity in predominantly young emerging markets populations looks set to offset slower vaccine rollouts, setting the stage for a resurgence in economic growth.

How Governments Killed the Gold Standard
Joseph T. Salerno (Mises Daily) May 28, 2021
The gold standard disappeared because governments destroyed it. Here's how it happened. Private-sector money is always an enemy of the state.

Dollar May Be on Brink of Sustained Downtrend
John Authers (Bloomberg View) May 28, 2021
The inflation outlook, higher oil prices and a stronger Chinese yuan all point in the same direction.

From California Capitalism to Bidenomics
Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendonca (Project Syndicate) May 28, 2021
The Biden administration's ambitious spending and investment programs are precisely what the US economy needs to thrive in the twenty-first century. Best of all, the economic strategy now being pursued at the national level has already proven highly successful in the country's wealthiest, most dynamic state.

The Ecology of Innovation
William H. Janeway (Project Syndicate) May 28, 2021
Ever since Joseph Schumpeter developed his theory of economic development, economists have been updating and filling in the gaps in his growth model. More than just a uniquely powerful insight, "creative destruction" has been an invitation for scholars to think both broadly and deeply about how innovation works.

The reliability of public debt forecasts
Julia Estefania Flores, Davide Furceri, Siddharth Kothari, and Jonathan D. Ostry (VoxEU) May 28, 2021
Public debt ratios have increased significantly in 2020 from already elevated levels. Current projections envisage a quick stabilisation and subsequent decline in debt ratios. This column assesses the likelihood of this projection by looking at past evidence on forecast accuracy, based on a new comprehensive dataset of medium-term debt forecasts. It finds that forecasts have systematically understated the actual evolution of debt. If the past is a guide to the future, rather than declining, debt ratios could be some 7% of GDP higher five years from now than they are today in emerging and developing countries.

Financial integration and structure in EMU during the corona crisis
Philipp Hartmann, Stefano Borgioli, Alina Kempf, Philippe Molitor, and Francesco Paolo Mongelli (VoxEU) May 28, 2021
The coronavirus health crisis also had a strong impact on financial systems. This column discusses its effects on euro area financial integration and financial structure. It illustrates how decisive monetary, fiscal and prudential policy responses first contained and then reversed the initial sharp fragmentation in asset prices across member countries. Overall cross-border asset holdings, however, still have to recover. The emerging alignment between common monetary and fiscal measures through the adoption of the three European safety nets and the Next Generation EU recovery programme seem to have been a game-changer in this regard. The resilience of financial re-integration to potential future shocks to the Economic and Monetary Union, however, should be monitored going forward. The different phases of the pandemic also went along with sizeable shifts between different corporate financing tools and different financial intermediaries.

Calm breaks out in bond markets despite inflation fears
Michael Mackenzie (FT) May 29, 2021
Longer-term risks remain over what kind of exit strategy Fed pursues over stimulus support.

US earnings defy supply chain problems
Mamta Badkar (FT) May 29, 2021
First-quarter profit growth on track to be to be strongest in 11 years.

Europe is made for a grounded world
Janan Ganesh (FT) May 29, 2021
If air travel wanes in our post-Covid future, nowhere will be better to live than a small, treasure-crammed continent.

The boundary between crypto and fiat money is becoming more permeable
Economist May 29, 2021
Crypto may be past the point where it can be considered self-contained.

The Worst-Kept Secret in America: High Inflation Is Back
Mark Hendrickson (Mises Wire) May 29, 2021
yFrom wood to copper to corn, prices for basic necessities for both production and consumption are rising to multi-year highs. The Fed says it has everything under control, but the Fed has a terrible track record in both predictions and executing its plans.

Five lessons from 25 years of corporate wealth creation
Rana Foroohar (FT) May 30, 2021
The rewards of a superstar economy must be shared more equally.

The 2020s are set to be a decisive economic decade for the UK
Martin Wolf (FT) May 30, 2021
Failure to address multiple challenges facing the country will result in national decline.

Where have all the workers gone and will they ever come back?
Pilita Clark (FT) May 30, 2021
A dearth of staff is forcing bosses around the world to offer cash and bonuses that would have seemed ludicrous last year.

Old corporate champions can't save Japan
Richard Katz (EAF) May 30, 2021
A central problem behind Japan's failure to adapt to the digital world is the lack of business agility among Japanese companies in their use of Information and Communications Technology (ICT).

The Day the World Changed for Big Oil
Julian Lee (Bloomberg View) May 30, 2021
After shareholder and court challenges, Exxon, Shell and Chevron will have to clean up their acts much faster than planned.

Switzerland's slow-motion Swexit will still be harmful
FT View May 31, 2021
The collapse of talks on closer ties with the EU is a blow to the bloc too.

How should companies decide on their ESG goals?
Luigi Zingales (FT) May 31, 2021
Investors can transmit their preferences via their choice of mutual fund and watching how it votes.

US is chasing China's tail on 5G
David P. Goldman (AT) May 31, 2021
Chinese manufacturers have installed about 5,000 private 5G networks and will add tens of thousands more this year as 5G broadband enables Fourth Industrial Revolution applications. "It doesn't make any sense for the West to pour billions of dollars into alternatives to China's 5G technology," one Chinese executive told Asia Times.

No ordinary recovery
Laurence Boone (OECD Ecoscope) May 31, 2021
It is with some relief that we can see the economic outlook brightening, but with some discomfort that it is doing so in a very uneven way. Amid renewed virus outbreaks, less frequent but more dispersed throughout the world, global growth continues to recover. We are projecting global output to rise by nearly 6% this year, an impressive surge after the 3½ per cent contraction in 2020. While the recovery will bring most of the world back to pre-pandemic GDP levels by the end of 2022, this is far from enough. The global economy remains below its pre-pandemic growth path and in too many OECD countries living standards by the end of 2022 will not be back to the level expected before the pandemic.

For the climate, Asia-Pacific must phase out fossil-fuel subsidies
Alicia García-Herrero and Simone Tagliapietra (Bruegel) May 31, 2021
An exit from coal in the Asia-Pacific region is a global decarbonisation priority.

Two cheers for modest economic growth. Three for Biden's honesty about it.
Catherine Rampell (WP) May 31, 2021
The more economic growth a politician promises, the worse their policies probably are.

Can a Cryptocurrency Break the Buck?
Timothy G Massad (Bloomberg View) May 31, 2021
Disruptions in a stablecoin's value could wreak havoc on the broader crypto market unless regulators step in.

Indonesia Can't Afford the Luxury of Australia's Carbon Habit
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) May 31, 2021
Middle-income countries simply don't have the resources to support a fossil fuel industry that's circling the drain. Richer nations have more leeway.

South Asia Should Pay Attention to Its Standout Star
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) May 31, 2021
India and Pakistan have much to learn from their once-poorer neighbor Bangladesh.

A Global Incentive to Reduce Emissions
Raghuram G. Rajan (Project Syndicate) May 31, 2021
Proposals for coordinated climate action at the global level all too easily run into free-rider and fairness problems, leaving many of the most popular policy proposals dead on arrival. But a simple framework that gives all countries similar incentives would overcome these problems.

Global Health Governance from the Grassroots
Ngaire Woods (Project Syndicate) May 31, 2021
Historically, global health and environmental cooperation has reflected various combinations of top-down and bottom-up measures. To be better prepared for future pandemics, global models and agreements must shape responses that are grounded firmly in local communities and value their engagement, risk ownership, and anxieties.

Taking the Fight to the Pandemic
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) May 31, 2021
After the global financial crisis of 2008, considerable resources were devoted to making the world's financial system safer. An analogous effort is needed now, both to help win the global war against COVID-19 and to ensure that nothing like this ever happens again.

Is Bidenomics More Than Catch-Up?
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) May 31, 2021
The Biden administration's promises to "think big" and rebuild the country seem like a major historical departure from decades of policy orthodoxy. And yet, insofar as its agenda will merely help the United States catch up to other advanced economies, its main components amount to necessary but insufficient reforms.

Why does aid not target the poorest?
Ryan Briggs (VoxDev) May 31, 2021
Ease of implementation might be a significant factor behind the flow of aid to richer parts of countries.

The emerging fiscal union needs a solid foundation
Päivi Leino-Sandberg and Vesa Vihriälä (VoxEU) May 31, 2021
The EU's response to the COVID-19-induced economic crisis has been aggressive, but not without criticism. This column, part of the Vox debate on euro area reform, summarises some of the shortcomings of the way in which the EU's Next Generation programme may play out, and suggests short- and longer-term considerations that need to be made in order to ensure that the programme strengthens the Union in the long run.

Re-evaluating the sources of the recent productivity slowdown
Ian Goldin, Pantelis Koutroumpis, François Lafond, and Julian Winkler (VoxEU) May 31, 2021
Labour productivity is a key determinant in improving living standards. But in recent years, productivity has stagnated, if not declined, in many countries around the world. This column re-evaluates the various reasons as to why this might be, applying three criteria to the existing explanations for the slowdown. It finds that the slowdown in productivity can be attributed to numerous factors, ranging from mismeasurement to changes in trade patterns.

The Giant of Africa Is Failing
John Campbell and Robert I. Rotberg (FA) May 31, 2021
Only Nigeria can save itself--but the United States can help.