News & Commentary:

May 2015 Archives

Articles/Commentary

A Little Disruption, Big Economic Shocks
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 1, 2015
A model of economic networks is a big leap forward.

The Dollar Joins the Currency Wars
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) May 1, 2015
Until recently, US policymakers were not overly concerned about the dollar’s strength; America’s growth prospects were stronger than in Europe and Japan. But things look different today, and officials’ exchange-rate jitters are becoming increasingly pronounced.

Will the TPP Help Latin America?
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) May 1, 2015
If done right, the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership could help Mexico, Peru, and Chile – the accord’s Latin American members – make the leap to high-productivity exports based on innovation. But that would require the TPP to foster, not impede, the flow of knowledge around the Pacific Rim.

An assessment of the state of the world economy
Olivier Blanchard (VoxEU) May 1, 2015
Complex forces are shaping macroeconomic evolutions around the world. In this column, IMF’s Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard describes some of these forces and provides an overview of the state of the world economy. Putting the forces together, the baseline forecasts are that advanced countries will do better this year than last, and emerging countries will slow down. Overall, the global growth will be roughly the same as last year, with the macroeconomic risks having slightly decreased.

In Defense of Financial Innovation Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Andrew Palmer (FA) May 1, 2015
Creative finance helps everyone---not just the rich.

The End of Reform in China Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Youwei (FA) May 1, 2015
Authoritarian adaptation hits a wall.

The Precision Agriculture Revolution Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Jess Lowenberg-DeBoer (FA) May 1, 2015
Making the modern farmer.

What Caused Capitalism? Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Jeremy Adelman (FA) May 1, 2015
Assessing the roles of the West and the Rest.

Making America Great Again Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Jacob S. Hacker and Paul Pierson (FA) May 1, 2015
The case for the mixed economy.

China: Uneasy Way to the “New Normal” Adobe Acrobat Required
Feng Guo, Jean-Charles Sambor and Kevin Sanker (IIF) May 1, 2015
A rapidly slowing economy has prompted the government to reinforce policy easing using monetary, fiscal and administrative measures. Further broad-based easing is expected to head off a hard landing. Meanwhile, the pace of financial reforms is expected to accelerate in 2015. The priority is being given to further capital account opening, combined with significant steps towards full interest rate liberalization and introduction of deposit insurance. A gradual depreciation of the RMB is still our central scenario, but a more pronounced adjustment cannot be ruled out.

The Mexican gamble Economist Subscription Required
Economist May 2, 2015
In spite of a history of boom-and-bust, Mexico has asked investors to place a 100-year bet on its debt

Making Japan a place where women can shine
Tomohiko Inui, Makiko Nakamuro, Kazuma Edamura and Junko Ozawa (VoxEU) May 2, 2015
In order to achieve sustainable growth, Japan should make an efficient use of its labour force. However, female labour force participation and the share of women in leading positions in Japan remain low. This column investigates the impact of board diversity on firms’ innovative activity using Japanese firm-level data. The findings suggest that board diversity is associated with innovation only for firms that have already acquired diverse management skills.

Fed pause gives emerging markets respite Financial Times Subscription Required
Ferdinando Giugliano (FT) May 3, 2015
US central bank’s decision on interest rate rise may change the shape of the global recovery.

Saudis’ embryonic embrace of meritocracy Financial Times Subscription Required
John Sawers (FT) May 3, 2015
In such a conservative society, change will be controversial.

Investors crowd in to fill equity gaps Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Ford (FT) May 3, 2015
Sector is flourishing, despite risky odds and light regulation.

Global growth report card – is the world slowdown temporary? Financial Times Subscription Required
Gavyn Davies (FT) May 3, 2015
The latest activity “nowcasts” shown in detail below indicate that the global economy has continued to slow down more than consensus forecasts projected, though forecasters continue to believe that this slowdown will prove temporary.

Monetary Rules Work Better Than ‘Constrained Discretion’ Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
John B. Taylor (WSJ) May 3, 2015
We have had a serious financial crisis, a very deep recession, a not-so-great recovery, and now a virtually strategy-free international monetary system. This is not a good record.

A trade watershed?
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) May 3, 2015
The Pacific trade deal would serve U.S. interests.

Exorcising NAFTA’s ghosts
Thomas F. McLarty III (WP) May 3, 2015
The trade pact holds lessons for today.

The Scars of the Euro Crisis
Angel Ubide (PIIE) May 3, 2015
The euro crisis is over. The Greek tragedy continues in the background, and a Greek exit from the euro could deal a mortal blow to the single currency project.

The Accelerating Transition Away from Fossil Fuels
Lester Brown (Globalist) May 3, 2015
This century is witnessing a shift to renewable solar and wind energy.

Common sense on the financial crisis
Patrick Minford (VoxEU) May 3, 2015
The financial system – especially banks – is generally blamed for the Great Recession. This notion has been used to justify the adoption by central banks of several new monetary policy functions, such as financial stability and macro-prudential policies. This column argues that the financial crisis was just one component of the Great Recession and that central banks are largely responsible, given their failure to prevent banks’ liquidity difficulties from overflowing into the economy. It suggests that central banks should pay attention to stabilising monetary policy and scale back the new policies of direct regulation.

Japan’s race against the ageing clock
Atsushi Seike (EAF) May 3, 2015
The ageing of Japan’s population is globally unprecedented both in its level and its speed.

The Morality of Debt Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Kenneth Dyson (FA) May 3, 2015
A history of financial saints and sinners.

Insuring for Disaster New York Times Subscription Required
Jeffrey D. Sachs (NYT) May 4, 2015
We can't prevent tragedies like the Nepal quake, but we can find a better way to help.

Precarious prospects of London finance Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Augar (FT) May 4, 2015
UK’s next government needs a clear vision for the financial services industry.

China must prove Silk Road is serious Financial Times Subscription Required
George Magnus (FT) May 4, 2015
Beijing has tired of buying up endless volumes of US bonds.

Past still haunts Latin American leaders Financial Times Subscription Required
Jude Webber (FT) May 4, 2015
There is no one-size-fits-all solution to the crime and corruption in the region.

China migration: At the turning point Financial Times Subscription Required
Gabriel Wildau (FT) May 4, 2015
A shrinking labour force from rural areas is driving huge economic change.

What will our livelihoods be like in 2030?
Martha Baxter and Bathylle Missika (OECD Insights) May 4, 2015
Humankind has experienced more than two centuries of almost continuous progress since the Industrial Revolution, but will this trend continue?

Greece's Firebrand Finance Minister Deserves to Be Heard
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 4, 2015
Varoufakis's removal from Greece's debt talks makes another Band-Aid solution likely.

A Fake Debate Over Trade Talks
Bloomberg View May 4, 2015
Trans-Pacific Partnership needs a little secrecy.

Graft or Growth in China?
Yao Yang (Project Syndicate) May 4, 2015
China’s anti-corruption campaign has been widely touted as a key component of the deep structural reforms that the country needs to continue its development. But, in a country where government officials play a major role in promoting economic growth, will rooting out corruption undermine prosperity?

How to Select the Next UN Secretary-General
Ngaire Woods and Nina Hall (Project Syndicate) May 4, 2015
The selection process for filling important international posts often has been characterized more by political horse-trading than a meritocratic search for the best candidate. The tools to improve the process are available, and the time is right to ensure their adoption by the United Nations and other international organizations.

Which Internet for Europe?
James Waterworth (Project Syndicate) May 4, 2015
When the European Commission announces its new digital strategy on May 6, it will face a decisive choice between two very different approaches to the Internet. Will it choose a forward-looking, market-driven path, or a defensive, backward-looking, insular retreat?

Why is the number of poor people in Africa increasing when Africa’s economies are growing?
Laurence Chandy (Brookings) May 4, 2015
The answer can be found through a closer examination of Africa’s poverty data.

Why G.E. Ditched Finance
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) May 4, 2015
The surprising rebirth of American manufacturing.

Chinese outwards mercantilism: The art and practice of bundling
Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak and Huanhuan Zheng (VoxEU) May 4, 2015
China’s export-led growth has coincided with the country becoming one of the largest net global creditors. This column looks ahead to the next chapter of Chinese ‘outwards mercantilism’ – FDI investment in natural resources, commodities and mining bundled with access to finance and the export of Chinese capital products and labour services.

Is Transition to Inflation Targeting Good for Growth?
Galina Hale and Alexej Philippov (FRBSF Econ Letter) May 4, 2015
Inflation targeting is often considered the most appropriate monetary policy framework for central banks seeking price stability. While a target can help stabilize inflation, the implications for a country’s growth are less clear. Advanced economies experienced higher economic growth immediately following the transition to inflation targeting. However, developing economies experienced only modest gains that were close to their trend growth. One explanation is that transitioning to a low-inflation regime can be more costly for less stable countries that have higher inflation expectations and less credible policies.

China share in global indices set to rise Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) May 5, 2015
Renminbi’s growing international stature will draw assets.

Corporate discontent brews in India Financial Times Subscription Required
James Crabtree (FT) May 5, 2015
Confusion remains over the prime minister’s vision for business Read more >>

The Future of Worldwide Income Distribution
Tomas Hellebrandt and Paolo Mauro (PIIE) May 5, 2015
The debate about income distribution has focused on the trend of rising inequality in the United States and other advanced economies. Worldwide, however, income distribution is becoming more equal.

Japan Isn't Just a Knockoff Nation
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2015
Its record of creativity and innovation is long and impressive.

Why I’m Changing My Mind and Opposing the Ex-Im Bank Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Rick Perry (WSJ) May 5, 2015
There are better ways to help businesses flourish. For starters, cut the sky-high U.S. corporate tax rate.

Unforeseen effects of Chinese medicine Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) May 6, 2015
China’s new diplomacy is starting to look like soft power.

Investors must prepare for lower returns Financial Times Subscription Required
Richard Madigan (FT) May 6, 2015
Low valuations allow room for error but shares are no longer cheap.

Shale more like dotcom than Lehman bubble Financial Times Subscription Required
Ed Crooks (FT) May 6, 2015
How David Einhorn flagged up important weaknesses in shale oil business model.

China pledges USD 500,000 to support WTO accession and least-developed countries
WTO May 6, 2015
The government of China has pledged to contribute USD 500,000 (CHF 465,093) to the WTO’s Least Developed Countries and Accessions Programme (also known as the China Programme) for 2015.

Open Up, Europe! Let Migrants In. New York Times Subscription Required
Philippe Legrain (NYT) May 6, 2015
Letting in millions more migrants makes good economic sense.

The ‘exorbitant privilege’ and its stubborn costs
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) May 6, 2015
The dollar’s status as dominant global currency is tough on American manufacturers.

With Rates Near Zero, Gold Displays Its Resilience
Anne Szustek (II) May 6, 2015
The price of the yellow metal depends in large part on investor sentiment — in more than one sense of the word.

Asia - Stabilizing and Outperforming Other Regions
IMF Survey May 6, 2015
Growth in Asia and the Pacific will continue to outperform the rest of the world, and is expected to remain steady at 5.6 percent in 2015, easing slightly to 5.5 percent in 2016, according to the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific.

Oil's Rebound Is Here
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) May 6, 2015
Saudis, frackers and hedge funds may have created a new equilibrium.

A Market Moved 1,110 Percent But You Shouldn't Care
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 6, 2015
When the world's leading investors say sell, what happens next?

Buy Back or Pay Forward?
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2015
The pharmaceutical industry likes to argue that companies need to be guaranteed a robust return on investments if they are to invest in new treatments. And yet there is a good reason why drug firms should help solve the problem of antimicrobial resistance: enlightened self-interest.

A Blueprint for Greece’s Recovery
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2015
Months of negotiations between Greece’s government and the International Monetary Fund, the European Union, and the European Central Bank have produced little progress. To break the current impasse, it is necessary to envisage a healthy Greek economy.

Data for Development
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2015
The data revolution is rapidly transforming every part of society. With a bit of investment and foresight, spelled out in a new UN report, it can also drive a sustainable development revolution, and accelerate progress toward ending poverty, promoting social inclusion, and protecting the environment.

Income inequality and citizenship
Branko Milanovic (VoxEU) May 6, 2015
Our level of income is unarguably dependent on where we live in the world. But evidencing this is tricky. This column presents a model that explains global income variability using one variable only – where you live. The results suggest that we might want to reassess how we think about both economic migration and global inequality of opportunity.

China’s anti-corruption drive hits the economy Financial Times Subscription Required
Jingzhou Tao (FT) May 7, 2015
Graft has been so rampant that there is barely an official who can claim to be untainted.

EU weakness shows in bid to flex its ABS Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) May 7, 2015
Attempt to revive ‘sliced and diced’ loans put on back burner.

India: Learning a hard lesson Financial Times Subscription Required
Amy Kazmin (FT) May 7, 2015
While billions are spent on new schools to boost literacy and growth, teaching standards lag behind Read

Triumph of the Unthinking New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) May 8, 2015
It is easier to appeal to voters with nonsense economics than to think things through.

WTO Chief Urges Members to Redouble Negotiating Efforts as July Deadline Approaches
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 16 May 7, 2015
The ongoing efforts to craft a Doha Round work programme have seen "positive engagement" in recent weeks, WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo said on Tuesday. However, the global trade chief warned that members need to "redouble" their efforts and start tackling certain "gateway issues" if they are to meet their July deadline.

EU Trade Chief Suggests New Investment Court Amid ISDS, Right to Regulate Debate
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 16 May 7, 2015
EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström has called for the creation of a permanent multilateral court and appellate mechanism to arbitrate investment disputes, as part of a broader set of proposals on how to improve the functioning of the controversial investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism in trade deals.

EU, ASEAN Consider Trade Talks Reboot
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 16 May 7, 2015
The EU and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are planning to explore the option of resuming their long-stalled region-to-region trade talks, officials from both sides confirmed late last month.

Greece Saunters Across the Autobahn
Michael Lewis (Bloomberg View) May 7, 2015
Watch out for the euro wreck.

Germany v. Google
Philippe Legrain (Project Syndicate) May 7, 2015
The key driver of the EU’s onslaught against American tech companies is not concern for the welfare of ordinary Europeans; it is the lobbying power of protectionist German businesses. Rather than try to protect its digital flops, Germany should practice what it preaches and make the difficult reforms it needs to raise its game.

New and Improved Trade Agreements?
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) May 7, 2015
Though trade agreements are unpopular nowadays, particularly in the US, the truth is that previous agreements benefited America and the world. So the most straightforward argument for the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership and other agreements now under discussion is that similar economic benefits are likely to follow.

High Costs of Cheap Oil
Deepak Gopinath (YaleGlobal) May 7, 2015
Low energy prices lock the world into fossil-fuel consumption and infrastructure – new taxes could encourage alternative

Runs in opaque markets: Panic of 1907
Caroline Fohlin, Thomas Gehrig and Marlene Haas (VoxEU) May 7, 2015
The story of the run-up to the Global Crisis is, unfortunately, not an entirely new one. This column argues that regulators would do well to read up on the ‘Panic of 1907’. What quelled rumours and panicky behaviour back then still applies – maintaining market liquidity through measures that encourage transparency.

Will the TPP really protect workers?
Richard Trumka (WP) May 8, 2015
Enforcement of terms in past trade agreements has been mediocre.

How Should Developing Nations Grow?
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 8, 2015
They are worlds apart and have different needs.

What Now for Britain and Europe?
Giles Merritt (Project Syndicate) May 8, 2015
The surprise result of the United Kingdom’s general election, which will return Prime Minister David Cameron and the Conservative Party to power for another five years, suggests that Britain’s voters prefer the devil they know to the devil they don’t. That may also apply, one hopes, to European Union membership.

China’s Green-Energy Revolution
John A. Mathews and Hao Tan (Project Syndicate) May 8, 2015
China generates most of its electricity by burning fossil fuels, just as every rising economic power has done since the Industrial Revolution. But to focus on this risks overlooking a notable trend: China's system of power generation is turning green far more quickly than any other system of comparable size on the planet.

Inequality, Immigration, and Hypocrisy
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) May 8, 2015
Europe’s migration crisis exposes a fundamental flaw, if not towering hypocrisy, in the ongoing debate about economic inequality. Wouldn’t a true progressive support equal opportunity for all people on the planet, rather than just for those of us lucky enough to have been born and raised in rich countries?

The missing piece in the EMU puzzle
Bruno Maçães (VoxEU) May 8, 2015
Europe’s institutional architecture is evolving in response to the EZ Crisis and years of economic malaise. This column, by Portugal’s Secretary of State for Europe, argues a flexible institutional framework that allows for stronger economic policy coordination, convergence and solidarity.

The strategic under-reporting of banks’ risk
Taylor Begley, Amiyatosh Purnanandam and Kuncheng Zheng (VoxEU) May 8, 2015
A key regulatory response to the Global Crisis has involved higher risk-weighted capital requirements. This column documents systematic under-reporting of risk by banks that gets worse when the system is under stress. Thus banks’ self-reported levels of risk are least informative in states of the world when accurate risk measurement matters the most.

Ageing and pensions
Pablo Antolín-Nicolás (OECD Insights) May 9, 2015
Pension systems of all types are facing crucial and far-reaching challenges because of demographic trends, the continuing impacts of the economic crisis, and the environment of low growth, low returns and low yields. As a result, meeting pension commitments and having adequate pensions could become quite a challenge. The OECD Pensions Outlook 2014 discusses ways in which countries are addressing all these challenges, including the demographic challenge.

David Cameron’s Europe
Carl Bildt (Project Syndicate) May 9, 2015
Reelected with a resounding majority in the House of Commons, Prime Minister David Cameron must use his increased mandate to set out an EU reform package that is attractive to all member states, not just to British Euroskeptics. If he does, he could set in motion a process that leaves Europe stronger than before.

Labour power sets the neutral real rate
Toby Nangle (VoxEU) May 9, 2015
The recent remarkably low interest rates have puzzled economists. The standard explanation rests on the extraordinary manoeuvres of the world’s largest central banks. This column argues, however, that it is due to economic developments, specifically globalisation and the collapse in labour power in the west.

Growth in Mature Economies: The Second CEPR-Modena Conference
Isabella Rota Baldini and Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke (VoxEU) Mar 9, 2015
The 7-8 November 2013 conference in Modena was the second in a series of events aimed at sharing different ideas and perspectives on a key policy issue – what can stimulate sustained growth in economies that cannot simply add more capital or import technologies developed abroad? This is an important question not only in the short run, as Europe struggles to emerge from recession, but also over the longer term as population ageing begins to affect these mature economies.

The Science of Scarcity
Cara Feinberg (Harvard Mag) May 9, 2015
A behavioral economist’s fresh perspectives on poverty.

Fiscal shocks in a globalised world
Alan J Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko (VoxEU) May 10, 2015
The effect of fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity is of key interest to policymakers and academics alike. However, identifying fiscal shocks in the data is challenging. This column uses daily data to evaluate the effect of government defence spending on forward-looking variables. The results indicate that government spending shocks lead to an appreciation of the domestic currency. This findings does not hold if low-frequency data are used instead.

The end of the Golden Arches doctrine Financial Times Subscription Required
Edward Luce (FT) May 10, 2015
After decades of agreeing to lower global barriers, we are as likely to put up new ones.

Wall Street Vampires New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) May 10, 2015
The plot against financial reform continues, despite the fact that one important measure is actually working.

Is Indonesia's President Too Democratic?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 10, 2015
Attacking multinational companies attracts applause, but not investment.

Brazil's Only Hope Is Mr. Market
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) May 10, 2015
Brazil's energy minister invites foreign investors to join the fray.

China’s rule of law plan is for real
Rogier Creemers (EAF) May 10, 2015
While it is tempting to dismiss China's recent moves as mere ideological posturing, China’s intentions for rule of law are genuine.

Monetary policy and credit costs
Mark Gertler, Peter Karadi (VoxEU) Mar 10, 2015
Evidence of the impact of monetary policy on economic activity supports conventional models with nominal rigidities. This column highlights the importance of the ‘credit channel’ of monetary policy. Unanticipated tightening produces a significant drop in real activity. However, monetary policy responses produce large movements in credit costs, which are due to the reaction of term premia and credit spreads. Therefore, to account for credit costs, it might be necessary to amend macroeconomic models to control for term premia and credit spreads.

Russians need ideas for life after Putin Financial Times Subscription Required
Evgeny Gontmakher (FT) May 11, 2015
We should engage with the west as equals, not as wards.

A gilded retirement for China’s elders Financial Times Subscription Required
Patti Waldmeir (FT) May 11, 2015
The same Communist party that took away their youth is allowing them to enjoy their dotage.

Unsustainable bank levy ripe for reform Financial Times Subscription Required
Patrick Jenkins (FT) May 11, 2015
Osborne should resist milking lenders harder.

Trade Wars in Congress New York Times Subscription Required
NYT May 11, 2015
A compromise on a trade bill is still possible and would be good for the American economy.

The Federal Reserve Asset Bubble Machine Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Ruchir Sharma (WSJ) May 11, 2015
Easy money is driving up the price of stocks, bonds, houses and other assets in a era without historical precedent.

The Senate’s Trade Killers Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ May 11, 2015
Harry Reid and Rob Portman are the strange bedfellows of U.S. decline.

Where German bonds lead the world follows Financial Times Subscription Required
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) May 11, 2015
Bund yields will remain low in historical terms.

Three Ways Latin America Can Turn a Crisis into a Positive
Anders Borg (PIIE) May 11, 2015
It is hard to believe, after a few days at the Mexican coast, but the sunny days are over for Latin America. The sunshine might come back, but the next few quarters will be challenging.

Democracy in Retreat
Ellen Bork (WA/Democracy Road) May 11, 2015
Regimes in countries like China, Russia, and Iran don’t even try to hide their contempt for democracy anymore. Will the next American president do more to fight back?

China's Baby Steps Toward Economic Disaster
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2015
Small tweaks can't fix the country's big problems.

International Norms in Cyberspace
Joseph S. Nye (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2015
Strategic studies of the cyber domain resemble nuclear strategy in the 1950s: analysts are still not clear about the meaning of offense, defense, deterrence, escalation, norms, and arms control. But international agreement on some issues may be within reach.

Western Politics’ Locust Years
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2015
Many mainstream political parties in the West are so busy playing defense that they are forgoing the strategic thinking needed to re-energize growth models, anchor financial stability, and ensure that technological innovation enables broad-based prosperity. As a result, Western economies may be undermining their future potential.

Greening China’s Financial System
Ma Jun and Simon Zadek (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2015
As emerging countries’ capital markets become increasingly central to the international financial system, a critical issue is whether sustainable-development principles underpin their operations. Fortunately, the answer so far seems to be yes.

Homesick Politics
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2015
Faced with political and economic uncertainty, policymakers have increasingly succumbed to the allure of nostalgia, promising a return to a supposedly simpler and more predictable world. But attempting to recreate yesterday's order is a surefire way to miss the challenges – and miss out on the opportunities – of today.

Triggering savings among the poor
Vincent Somville and Lore Vandewalle (VoxEU) May 11, 2015
Making transfers to bank accounts instead of paying cash could potentially enhance savings. This column tests this hypothesis using a randomised trial from India. The evidence suggests that being paid on the account increases the balance by around 110% within three months of weekly payments. The individuals who were paid in cash do not save more in other assets, such as cash at home, but increase consumption.

Monetary Policy and the Independence Dilemma
John C. Williams (FRBSF Econ Letter) May 11, 2015
The dilemma of central bank independence has been around a long time. Past attempts to solve it through an operational mandate such as the gold standard have proven ineffective. The alternative approach of achieving economic goals through reliance on a fixed policy rule also poses practical challenges. A more promising path is to enhance accountability and transparency within an existing goal mandate framework.

Modi’s India has sparks but no boom Financial Times Subscription Required
Swaminathan Aiyar (FT) May 12, 2015
The central bank governor is openly sceptical of the official data.

Good corporations should drive the economy Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) May 12, 2015
If effective, they make a positive contribution to the social and physical environment.

Welcome outbreak of sanity for bonds Financial Times Subscription Required
John Plender (FT) May 12, 2015
Jump in yields last week shows market signalling function still works.

The embattled future of global trade policy Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) May 12, 2015
Trade deals must not become an alternative to the WTO.

Rally does not herald commodities boom Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) May 12, 2015
Debate about worth of Asian groups must be seen in different context.

Democrats hand Obama a stinging defeat on trade deal
Dana Milbank (WP) May 12, 2015
More power to the populists.

Greece Inches Closer to an Accident
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2015
The probability of failure is now around 50 percent.

Greece's Payment Plan Is a Shell Game
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2015
Athens just wrote itself a check to cover its debts.

Free-Trade Opponents Get Desperate
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2015
TPP adversaries like Elizabeth Warren are making less and less sense.

Robots Versus the Middle Class
Bloomberg View May 12, 2015
Automation will probably help everyone in the long run. In the short run....

Reversing Africa’s Medical Brain Drain
Serufusa Sekidde (Project Syndicate) May 12, 2015
There is understandable consternation over Uganda’s plans to send almost 300 health workers to Trinidad and Tobago in exchange for help developing its oil fields. But the truth is that Uganda may have stumbled on a policy that could actually benefit both the health-care sector and the country.

The Paradox of Identity Politics
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) May 12, 2015
For decades, political debate in Europe focused largely on economic institutions and policies. But, with the growing success of appeals to identity and renewed ethnic or religious nationalism, that is changing, leaving officials less able to address the causes of popular frustration.

Why are analysts ratings and equity prices now going in opposite directions?
Nick Kirrage (Pieria) May 12, 2015
The gap between analysts’ ratings and price levels in the equity market has never been wider. What's going on?

The Global Implications of Diverging Monetary Policy Settings in Advanced Economies
William C. Dudley (FRBNY) May 12, 2015
I will focus my remarks on the global implications of U.S. monetary policy normalization—paying particular attention to the potential implications for emerging market economies (EMEs).

Financing for development: The policy and research agenda
Christopher Adam, Ugo Panizza, Andrea F Presbitero and David Vines (VoxEU) May 12, 2015
World leaders are preparing for the third International Conference on Financing for Development in Addis. More money may help, but may also make things worse due to aid dependence, Dutch disease, and/or unsustainable debt. This column argues that the political discussion needs to be accompanied by more, and better data and research on how financing can support sustainable development.

Understanding Investment Opportunities in China
Eric J. Mogelof, Luke Spajic, Haining Yin and Isaac Meng (PIMCO) May 12, 2015
China is in the midst of opening its markets to global investors while encouraging local investment abroad. China's offshore markets remain heavily traded, and the government is now providing access to its onshore markets in several key ways.

India should carve its tax code in stone Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) May 13, 2015
A company thinks it has settled its bill, next minute it is being hit for billions in retroactive levies.

Questions on Nigeria’s lost oil billions Financial Times Subscription Required
Lamido Sanusi (FT) May 13, 2015
Lines of investigation suggested by the PwC audit need to be pursued.

Why an open Iran offers extensive upsides Financial Times Subscription Required
Jay Pelosky (FT) May 13, 2015
A nuclear deal could stimulate an accelerated transition and pave the way to stability and growth.

Central Asia: After the strongmen Financial Times Subscription Required
Jack Farchy (FT) May 13, 2015
The succession question of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan grows more urgent.

Trade measure is anything but a race to the bottom for U.S. producers
Charles Lane (WP) May 13, 2015
Opponents of Trans-Pacific Partnership are flat-out wrong when they say it will be a job destroyer

US Senate Lawmakers Reach Deal to Advance TPA Legislation
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 17 May 13, 2015
US Senate leaders announced on Wednesday that they had reached a deal to advance legislation that would grant President Barack Obama with renewed "fast track" trade powers, less than 24 hours after efforts to begin debate on the legislation had been blocked in that chamber.

EU, Mexico Eye Trade Deal Upgrade
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 17 May 13, 2015
The EU and Mexico confirmed plans this week to update a bilateral trade deal between them, citing the need to reflect new trade realities and build off the advances being made in other major trade negotiations.

G-20 Agriculture Ministers Warn of Global Food Wastage
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 17 May 13, 2015
Agriculture ministers from the G-20 group of major advanced and emerging economies have warned that global food wastage could have devastating consequences for food security, nutrition, and the use of natural resources and the environment, following a 7-8 May meeting in the Turkish city of Istanbul.

Does Germany's Business Climate Live Up to Its Reputation?
Vijay Khosa (PIIE) May 13, 2015
At a time when calls for structural and labor reform are echoing throughout Europe, Germany has maintained a reputation for fostering a business-friendly investment climate. This reputation results partly from the structural reforms undertaken in the early 2000s. Recent evidence from the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index indicates, however, that improvements in Germany's business environment have stalled and even deteriorated, and some aspects are below euro area averages.

'Father of Euro' Knew It Was a Problem Child
Stephen Mihm (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2015
A warning that European monetary union wouldn't succeed without fiscal integration.

Depositors Flee Greece as Recession Rolls In
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2015
The stalemate with Europe hasn't come cheap.

Man Who Brought Down Barings Warns on China
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2015
Nick Leeson says regulators can't keep tabs on surging stocks.

Talent versus Capital in the Twenty-First Century
Klaus Schwab (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2015
When financial policymakers attempt to promote economic growth, they almost invariably focus on looking for new ways to unleash capital. But, though this approach may have worked in the past, it risks giving short shrift to the role that talent plays in generating and realizing the ideas that make growth possible.

Why Greece is Different
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2015
With Greece’s economy tanking again, the country’s government is convinced that the terms of the bailout deal it made with its international creditors, including continued austerity, must be renegotiated. But austerity is not Greece's problem; exports are.

The Secret Corporate Takeover
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2015
A great debate over new trade agreements is underway around the world. But the terms of such agreements are effectively being dictated by the US, and they go well beyond trade, imposing fundamental changes on countries’ legal, judicial, and regulatory frameworks, without democratic input or accountability.

The Puzzle of Liberal Democracy
Dani Rodrik and Sharun Mukand (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2015
Though more than 60% of the world’s countries are electoral democracies, the majority of these regimes fail to provide equal protection under the law. Whatever the reason for the emergence of democracies that uphold property, political, and civil rights at the same time, we should not be surprised by how uncommon they are.

Determinants of slowing investment in emerging markets
Nicolas Magud and Sebastián Sosa (VoxEU) May 13, 2015
Emerging markets are not the hot investment prospect they used to be. This column estimates that weaker private investment in these nations is a slowdown after a period of boom rather than an outright slump. Prospects for a recovery of business investment, however, are not promising. Commodity prices are expected to remain weak and external financial conditions are set to become tighter.

Death, taxes and compulsory saving Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) May 14, 2015
Forced saving is like paying tax, particularly if the state contributes for the poorest.

Reasons not to see start of ‘big one’ in Europe’s bond swings Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) May 14, 2015
Treasury yields have been taking their cue from Bunds, but we are not yet on the brink.

Brazil: Oily mess Financial Times Subscription Required
Joe Leahy (FT) May 14, 2015
A multi-billion dollar bribery scandal at Petrobras has shaken the ruling Workers’ party and former president Lula da Silva.

Changing Course, Russia Will Sell Rubles Instead of Buying New York Times Subscription Required
Andrew E. Kramer (NYT) May 14, 2015
The move is a result of the strength of the Russian currency, which is up 21 percent this year, and will limit its rise.

The Mystery of Declining Productivity Growth Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) May 14, 2015
The healthy 2.6% a year from 1995-2010 has since been an anemic 0.4%. What’s scary is that we don’t know why.

Save Obama (on trade)
Charles Krauthammer (WP) May 14, 2015
Think long-term, because the U.S. relationship with Asia will outlast this president.

Cognitive Dissonance on Trade
John Cassidy (New Yorker) May 14, 2015
Obama is seeking to persuade skeptical Democrats on Capitol Hill to give him the power to complete the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Grexit and Brexit: Some Stunning Parallels
Denis MacShane (Globalist) May 14, 2015
Both Greece and Britain could face referendums that would change their place in Europe.

Monetary Policy at Warp Speed
Harley Bassman (PIMCO) May 14, 2015
Some central banks are now purposely creating negative interest rates in an effort to nudge investors outward along the risk spectrum. This policy could lead to some unexpected consequences. Due to investors' general tendency toward risk aversion, both implied and realized volatility around the zero line may be higher than what risk models expect. Another unconsidered consequence of negative rates concerns the risk management of financial derivatives. Most option pricing models cannot readily accommodate the negative rate dynamic.

Solving the $450 Billion Bond Rout Mystery
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 14, 2015
Markets went south because Europe looks good.

The Strategic Imperative of TTIP
Jiri Sedivy (Project Syndicate) May 14, 2015
As negotiations between the EU and US over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership move toward agreement, opponents of the proposed pact are becoming more vocal. And yet the TTIP could turn out to be the most important bulwark of transatlantic unity since the creation of NATO.

Russia’s Indefensible Military Budget
Sergei Guriev (Project Syndicate) May 14, 2015
If Russia's military spending continues at its current pace, the country will deplete its reserve fund before the end of the year. If Russia could not afford a 4%-of-GDP defense budget in good times, it cannot possibly manage it now, when the country confronts rock-bottom oil prices, Western sanctions, and economic recession.

An Economics to Fit the Facts
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) May 14, 2015
The economics profession was arguably the first casualty of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. But, as with the global economy, there is reason to hope that the discipline is on the mend.

The importance of leadership for Asia’s Development
Emanuele Schibotto (OECD Insights) May 14, 2015
Asia’s development has been so successful that it has been labelled a “miracle.” However, if this is true for economic growth, the picture looks far less impressive if you look at other dimensions of economic development. That is why a return of leadership is needed.

What monetary policy committees should vote on
Carl-Andreas Claussen and Øistein Røisland (VoxEU) May 14, 2015
The so-called ‘discursive dilemma’ in collective decision-making implies that the policy choice of a monetary policy committee depends on whether it votes directly on policy, or whether it votes on the underlying economic judgements – the ‘premises’ for the decision. This column argues that the monetary policy committees should vote on the premises. This gives better decisions, better explanations and better monetary policy communication.

The role of culture on democratisation
Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gérard Roland (VoxEU) May 14, 2015
Social science studies usually explain democratisation of countries with the increase in incomes. In contrast, this column argues that culture is a neglected but important determinant of democracy. The findings show that countries with individualist culture democratise earlier than collectivist cultures that may remain stuck for a long time with relatively efficient autocracies.

Don’t Be So Sure the Economy Will Return to Normal New York Times Subscription Required
Tyler Cowen (NYT) May 15, 2015
As postrecession problems linger, the question arises about whether we are witnessing a fundamental shift.

Why Syriza Will Blink
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) May 15, 2015
The Greek government, led by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s Syriza party, believes that the threat of default gives it leverage in its debt negotiations with the EU. But the authorities’ calculation is based on the false premise that Europe has no choice but to expel Greece from the eurozone or offer it unconditional relief.

Credit access and technology adoption: Evidence from Russia
Cagatay Bircan and Ralph De Haas (VoxEU) May 15, 2015
Innovation enhances economic growth but the mechanisms that underpin the spread of products remain largely unclear. Based on new micro-data from Russia, this column argues that access to credit helps firms to adopt products and production processes that are new to them. However, there is little evidence that bank credit stimulates in-house R&D. Thus, banks can facilitate the diffusion of technologies within developing countries but their role in pushing the technological frontier is limited.

The rise of the digital capital economy
Irving Wladawsky-Berger (Pieria) May 15, 2015
A major transition is now taking place in our digital economy.

The impact of fracked shale gas
Catherine Hausman and Ryan Kellogg (VoxEU) May 15, 2015
The economic and environmental impacts of the US fracking boom are hotly debated. This column argues that there’s been a large positive impact on the US economy, estimating that the benefits to producers and consumers totalled $48 billion in 2013, or around one-third of 1% of US GDP. The climate change impacts have been large, but they do not outweigh the private gains. However, a lack of data on the impacts to water, air, and seismic activity hamper policymakers effectively targeting the areas of greatest concern and hamper them drawing up effective regulation.

The Missing Arrow of Abenomics
Seki Obata and Georges Desvaux (Project Syndicate) May 15, 2015
Debate about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's public-policy reforms has largely crowded out discussion of the private sector’s role in economic revitalization. But Japan’s ability to achieve faster growth depends on whether companies take the steps needed to boost productivity.

Channeling China’s Aspirations
Mark Roe (Project Syndicate) May 15, 2015
The closer China’s economic ties with the rest of the world become, the more it will have to lose from a breakdown in international relations. It is better that China be convinced that economic engagement is the best way to project power than for its leaders to conclude that military confrontation is the only viable path to respect.

Past Time to Reform Bretton Woods New York Times Subscription Required
NYT May 16, 2015
Developing nations should play larger roles in the I.M.F. and the World Bank.

Tax-free debt: The great distortion Economist Subscription Required
Economist May 16, 2015
Subsidies that make borrowing irresistible need to be phased out

China: Peaceful Rise to Great Power Status Won’t Be Easy!
Jean-Pierre Lehmann (Globalist) May 16, 2015
Can the West constructively encourage China’s peaceful rise?

Building the Global Schoolhouse
Gordon Brown (Project Syndicate) May 16, 2015
Despite a commitment by the international community to guarantee universal primary education, many of the world’s most marginalized children remain out of school. As the world works to offer every child the possibility of attending secondary school by 2030, the key challenge will be to secure the necessary funding.

Limits of Eurozone national risk-sharing
Harald Benink and Harry Huizinga (VoxEU) May 16, 2015
QE in the Eurozone is unusual in that the risks of sovereign debt defaults are shared between the ECB and the national central banks. This column argues that if such risk sharing were applied to the Outright Monetary Transactions programme, it could potentially create insolvency problems for countries with large public debts, especially in a low-growth scenario.

Central bankers prepare for divergence Financial Times Subscription Required
Ferdinando Giugliano (FT) May 17, 2015
Immediate danger facing global economy lies in when exactly US’s rate lift-off will take place.

Ukraine merits debt reduction Financial Times Subscription Required
Lawrence Summers (FT) May 17, 2015
Failure to cut burden would confirm view that private interests influence public policy too much.

How to combat threat of Asian deflation Financial Times Subscription Required
Frederic Neumann (FT) May 17, 2015
Trend is not temporary and should not be ignored.

Narendra Modi: One direction Financial Times Subscription Required
Victor Mallet and James Crabtree (FT) May 17, 2015
A year after he became prime minister the economy is growing, yet business is restless.

In Ukraine, Corruption Concerns Linger a Year After a Revolution New York Times Subscription Required
David M. Herszenhorn (NYT) May 17, 2015
The new government led by Petro O. Poroshenko has largely failed to deliver on promises to root out endemic corruption and has become ensnared in new allegations of misconduct.

An American Trade Watershed Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ May 17, 2015
The stakes are large for the country, and the Republican Party.

The next Smoot-Hawley
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) May 17, 2015
China’s currency manipulation isn’t the issue.

India: Maneuvering Among China, the US, Europe and Russia
Sanjeev S. Ahluwalia (Globalist) May 17, 2015
Prime Minister Modi faces a real foreign policy "trilemma"

Greece's Turn to Resist a Referendum
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 17, 2015
The government would lose, whatever the outcome.

The New Economics of Having It All
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) May 17, 2015
You can't escape the trade-off between equality and efficiency.

The Real Winners in Modi's India
Pankaj Mishra (Bloomberg View) May 17, 2015
Farmers and CEOs are disappointed. Not Hindu nationalists.

Janet Yellen Takes a Back Seat to China
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 17, 2015
Washington has less sway over the global economy.

Keep currency clauses out of the global trading system
Sourabh Gupta (EAF) May 17, 2015
Injecting enforceable currency disciplines into the cross-border trading regime is disingenuous. It is also quite probably illegal.

Global banks turning more local
Gaston Gelos and Frederic Lambert (VoxEU) May 17, 2015
Since the Global Crisis, international banks have reduced cross-border lending but continued to lend through their branches and affiliates overseas. This column argues that the observed shift was to a significant extent driven by regulatory changes. It should improve financial stability in host countries of foreign banks.Since the Global Crisis, international banks have reduced cross-border lending but continued to lend through their branches and affiliates overseas. This column argues that the observed shift was to a significant extent driven by regulatory changes. It should improve financial stability in host countries of foreign banks.

India aims to match China’s power game Financial Times Subscription Required
Victor Mallet (FT) May 18, 2015
Modi takes to the road to show regional states that he can also be a good neighbour.

Obama’s trade deal will not tame China Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) May 18, 2015
The TPP is not a significant enough step to justify all the geopolitical hopes invested in it.

Turkey: A flagging growth story Financial Times Subscription Required
Daniel Dombey (FT) May 18, 2015
Erdogan has blamed the central bank and political opponents for the slowdown, while critics blame him.

The U.S. Underestimates Growth Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Martin Feldstein (WSJ) May 18, 2015
The official statistics are missing changes that are lifting American incomes.

Rise of the Trader-Bots
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) May 18, 2015
The algorithms running today’s market are fast and sophisticated, but easily duped.

Is the World Getting Safer? Maybe Not
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2015
War has not become as rare as we like to think.

In Defense of Nafta
Bloomberg View May 18, 2015
Nafta didn't suppress wages, cause huge job losses or inflate trade deficits.

What Do Rich Countries Have in Common? Big Government
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2015
Weak and poor countries have just the opposite.

China's Great Academic Leap Forward
Peter R. Orszag (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2015
One way the two great powers cooperate.

China Needs a Grown-Up Central Bank
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2015
The country's economic policy is far too erratic.


Marcel Fratzscher, Jürgen Fitschen and Reiner Hoffmann (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2015
The German economy’s enviable combination of strong growth, low unemployment, favorable financing conditions, and large budget surpluses masks long-term vulnerability. To place the economy on a stronger footing – and to help pull Europe out of its malaise – will require substantially higher public and private investment.

Inspiring Economic Growth
Robert J. Shiller (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2015
In his First Inaugural Address, during the depths of the Great Depression, US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt famously told Americans that, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” The same could be said today, seven years after the 2008 global financial crisis, about the world economy’s remaining weak spots.

Educating for Sustainable Development
Irina Bokova and Christiana Figueres (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2015
This year, the international community will adopt a new global development strategy and negotiate a universal deal to combat climate change. The key to success on both fronts is to bring about a fundamental shift in how we think, act, and discharge our responsibilities toward one another and the planet.

Modi in China
Brahma Chellaney (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2015
Since taking office last year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sought to transform his country’s relationship with China, arguing that Asia’s prospects hinge largely on their partnership. But, as Modi’s just-concluded tour of China highlighted, the issues that divide the world’s demographic titans remain formidable.

A Battle Rages over the TPP to Re-write Global Rules
Knowledge@Wharton May 18, 2015
The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership has many wondering about its potential impact on the U.S. economy, and on the competitiveness of U.S. multinationals in the years ahead.

Globalisation and the gender wage gap
Esther Ann Bøler, Beata Javorcik and Karen-Helene Ulltveit-Moe (VoxEU) May 18, 2015
The gender wage gap persists even in gender equal societies such as the Nordic countries. This column suggests that globalisation may play a role in that. The authors show that exporting firms have higher gender wage gaps although the effect is only present among college graduates. The heightened competition faced by exporters requires greater commitment and flexibility on the part of the workers, which leads to statistical gender discrimination.

The wary retreat of the bond bulls Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) May 19, 2015
Long fall and recent collapses in nominal and real yields on safe securities should be at an end.

UK productivity puzzle Financial Times Subscription Required
John Kay (FT) May 19, 2015
Employment is up, working hours are up, so why is output down?

A bogus argument against the trade deal
Ruth Marcus (WP) May 19, 2015
Secrecy is a phony reason to scuttle the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Six Ways to Reduce Corruption in Greece
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) May 19, 2015
Drawing on my experience in the government of Bulgaria, I offered six ways Greece can reduce corruption in a speech at the Emergency Economic Summit for Greece today in Athens. These guidelines are universal and apply to any country.

Indonesia at a Critical Juncture
John West (Globalist) May 19, 2015
Great political and social hurdles stand in the way of Indonesia's development.

A Report Card for Asia's 'Axis of Reform'
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2015
How do leaders of China, India and Japan measure up?

When Central Bankers Whisper Secrets
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2015
You'd think institutions facing scrutiny would aim to plug leaks, right? Wrong.

Will the U.S. Ever Grow Fast Again?
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2015
If so, what should be done about it?

India's Man of the Future Must Break With Past
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2015
'Creative incrementalism' won't get Narendra Modi where he or India want to go.

Greece's True Deadline May be May 29
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2015
As Greece approaches the mathematical limit of its entitlements under the ELA program, the ECB may find itself in the untenable position of acting as judge, jury and executioner.

The Modi Government Turns One
Shashi Tharoor (Project Syndicate) May 19, 2015
India’s Bharatiya Janata Party government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will mark its first anniversary in office this month. While it is too early to assess its overall performance, the overwhelming sentiment across India so far is one of disappointment.

No Child Left Out
Moza bint Nasser (Project Syndicate) May 19, 2015
UNESCO estimates that at least 250 million of the world’s children of primary-school age are unable to read, write, or do basic arithmetic. This week, the international community will have a chance to redress this scandalous state of affairs when policymakers meet at the World Education Forum to agree on new global targets.

A Net Assessment of the World
George Friedman (Stratfor) May 19, 2015
A pretentious title requires a modest beginning. The world has increasingly destabilized and it is necessary to try to state, as clearly as possible, what has happened and why. This is not because the world is uniquely disorderly; it is that disorder takes a different form each time, though it is always complex.

Secular stagnation: History of a heresy
Roger Backhouse and Mauro Boianovsky (VoxEU) May 19, 2015
The notion of secular stagnation – a state of negligible or zero economic growth – is back in the headlines. Questions naturally arise about its intellectual antecedents. This column discusses how the concept rose and fell with the economic fortunes of advanced industrialised nations. Political trends and trends in economic theory played a part in its trajectory, with the notion closely connected to the idea that the level of government debt should be allowed to rise.

Investors on ‘safe asset’ starvation diet Financial Times Subscription Required
Ewen Cameron Watt (FT) May 20, 2015
What happens when shortage shrinks: indigestion or big sell-off?

Drill deeper than oil for Saudi prosperity Financial Times Subscription Required
John Sfakianakis (FT) May 20, 2015
Important reforms centre on energy, which kingdom uses wastefully.

Periphery holds while centre falls apart Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) May 20, 2015
QE has induced volatility in German bonds and relative calm elsewhere.

Europe: The British question Financial Times Subscription Required
George Parker and Alex Barker (FT) May 20, 2015
David Cameron must balance pursuit of a reformed EU against the anger of his party’s eurosceptic fringe.

Polish Lessons for the Ukrainian Economy
Wolfgang Schüssel (Globalist) May 20, 2015
Austria' Former Prime Minister asks: Can Ukraine fix its dire economic situation by taking lessons from Poland?

3 Asian Economies With Room for Improvement
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2015
South Korea and Indonesia fall behind the Philippines.

A World of Underinvestment
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2015
After World War II, policymakers recognized that deleveraging depended on nominal economic growth, which in turn depended on a global recovery. Like them, today’s policymakers should use – and even stretch – their balance sheets for investment, while opening themselves up to international trade.

Smart Development Targets
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2015
Over the next 15 years, the international community will spend $2.5 trillion on development, with national budgets contributing countless trillions more. Nineteen targets identified by the Copenhagen Consensus can help the world’s governments to concentrate on key priorities.

The Irresistible Rise of the Renminbi
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2015
By the end of this year, the IMF will decide whether the Chinese renminbi will join the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the US dollar in the basket of currencies that determines the value of its international reserve asset, the Special Drawing Right. The benefits of admitting China’s currency far outweigh the costs.

Development Finance with Chinese Characteristics?
Richard Kozul-Wright and Daniel Poon (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2015
China-led initiatives like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund have been criticized as efforts to displace existing bodies like the World Bank. But China and its partners seem less interested in supplanting current institutions than in improving upon them.

Staying the Course in Europe’s East
Carl Bildt (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2015
The EU summit in Riga with the “Eastern Partnership” countries recalls the dramatic Vilnius meeting in November 2013, where Ukraine’s president, under heavy Russian pressure, refused to sign the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. Russia’s behavior since then has made the Eastern Partnership more important than ever.

Behavioural development economics
Allison Demeritt, Karla Hoff and James Walsh (VoxEU) May 20, 2015
Economists typically assume people behave in a rational and self-interested way, making standard models limited in their explanatory power. This column argues that psychological and sociological factors – though usually ignored in economic models – affect decision-making. The findings, drawn from the World Development Report, further suggest that better behavioural understanding could subsequently aid development efforts.

Trade-in-value-added indicators: Caveat emptor
Timothy J. Sturgeon (VoxEU) May 20, 2015
With global value chains that fragment production across the world, national statistics fail to capture the growing interconnectedness of economies. This column describes the international input-output tables that allow researchers to estimate the share of a country’s export value derived from imported inputs. However, while these tools offer promising uses, at the moment statistics on trade in value added should be treated with great caution.

How politics will seal the fate of Greece Financial Times Subscription Required
Philip Stephens (FT) May 21, 2015
Can Europe really allow Athens to fall into the arms of Moscow?

Credit derivatives deserve a revival Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) May 21, 2015
Investors will need all the help — or instruments — they can find to hedge risks in the next year.

Europe has made tragedy a political crisis Financial Times Subscription Required
Peter Sutherland (FT) May 21, 2015
Europeans should help; not so long ago, they were the ones desperately asking.

Brazil and China reheat old news Financial Times Subscription Required
Joe Leahy (FT) May 21, 2015
While synergies between the two countries are self-evident, realising them has not been easy.

US Senate Trade Debate Approaches Critical Vote
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 18 May 21, 2015
The past week has marked a hectic period in Washington political circles, with US Senate lawmakers putting forward a flurry of amendments to proposed trade legislation ahead of a key vote expected later this week.

US Senate Signs Off on 10-Year AGOA Renewal
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 18 May 21, 2015
The US Senate passed legislation on 14 May to extend duty-free access to the US for Sub-Saharan African countries through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for another decade.

No Safe Haven in Hong Kong
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 21, 2015
The messiness of China's stock markets is spilling across the border.

The Way Out for Greece
Konstantine Gatsios (Bloomberg View) May 21, 2015
Don't send cash. Austerity isn't the problem.

China’s Factory Workers Are Becoming More Restive
Anita Chan (YaleGlobal) May 21, 2015
Hong Kong activists influence migrant workers in nearby Guangdong to demand enforcement of China’s labor laws

Beyond Universal Education
Fazle Hasan Abed (Project Syndicate) May 21, 2015
It is time for the UN and other international bodies to move beyond a singular focus on enrollment numbers and grapple with the problem of quality in education. A child’s potential is truly unleashed only when he or she learns to spot and seize the opportunities his or her parents never had.

Private capital flows, official development assistance, and remittances to Africa
Amadou Sy and Fenohasina Maret Rakotondrazaka (Brookings) May 21, 2015
External financial flows to sub-Saharan Africa have increased considerably over the past 20 years, from $20 billion in 1990 to above $120 billion in 2012, and the composition of these resources has also shifted—but to what extent have these changes equally benefited the countries in the region?

Sovereign rating changes: Understanding the asymmetries
Carmen Broto and Luis Molina (VoxEU) May 21, 2015
Credit ratings agencies have enormous power over countries in dire straits. But whether prevailing global economic conditions affect their assessments is rarely asked. This column suggests that credit ratings agencies overreact in downgrading countries credit ratings during times of economic crisis and instability, and underreact when upgrading during calmer times. This is bad news for policymakers who think that strong economic performance will get them back the credit rating they once took for granted.

Is the Ex-Im Bank Doomed? New York Times Subscription Required
Joe Nocera (NYT) May 22, 2015
Plenty of business, and jobs, will be lost if the bank ceases to exist.

Time to Rethink the Rupee
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) May 22, 2015
If Modi wants to create a manufacturing power, he needs a weaker currency.

Global Finance and Global Warming
Naina Lal Kidwai and Nick Robins (Project Syndicate) May 22, 2015
Since 2008, financial reform has been among the top items on policymakers’ agendas. But, as leaders move from fixing the problems of the past to positioning the financial system for the future, they must also grapple with new threats to its stability, particularly those stemming from climate change.

New-Model Development Finance
Anne-Marie Slaughter (Project Syndicate) May 22, 2015
China’s establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is the latest sign of a broader move away from the view that aid to developing countries is best provided in the form of massive government-to-government transfers. Ironically, it may be the US, which opposed the AIIB’s creation, that is leading the shift.

Capital Markets for Development
Ethiopis Tafara (Project Syndicate) May 22, 2015
Ending extreme poverty and building shared prosperity in the developing world are noble goals; but they are also expensive ones, requiring financing on a scale far greater than what governments in developing countries can provide. But if the proper conditions are created, capital markets will be well positioned to meet those needs.

Service trade and productivity
Masayuki Morikawa (VoxEU) May 22, 2015
World trade in services is increasing rapidly but micro evidence remains scarce. This column employs firm data from Japan to argue that service-exporting firms are more productive than non-exporting firms and goods-exporting firms. Information asymmetry, transportation costs, differences in institutions, cultures, and languages increase the fixed costs of service trade. Therefore, highly productive firms are more likely to self-select into service trade.

India: When Populism Is Not Sustainable
Sanjeev S. Ahluwalia (Globalist) May 23, 2015
Why is Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s popularity plunging?

Bank Bashing, the Modern Nero’s Fiddle Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
Holman Jenkins (WSJ) May 24, 2015
Dodd-Frank and a rash of bank prosecutions have done nothing to make banks safer or more productive.

Big Data’s infinite harvest Financial Times Subscription Required
Edward Luce (FT) May 24, 2015
They give us free computing power and we reveal ever more about ourselves.

New Silk Road is a chance not a threat Financial Times Subscription Required
Liu Xiaoming (FT) May 24, 2015
China intends to use its strengths to promote this project.

Will eurozone ever regain its spring? Financial Times Subscription Required
Claire Jones (FT) May 24, 2015
The buzzword is ‘hysteresis’, which implies policy makers have acted too late to make a difference.

Deutsche bucks trend to little advantage Financial Times Subscription Required
Jonathan Ford (FT) May 24, 2015
It remains a full-service European investment bank in an unfriendly climate.

Haiti: Rising from the rubble Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrew Jack and Andres Schipani (FT) May 24, 2015
Much has been rebuilt since the 2010 earthquake, but it is more difficult to ensure the country’s economic future.

The Big Meh New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) May 24, 2015
A growing number of economists, looking at the data on productivity and incomes, are wondering if the technological revolution has been greatly overhyped.

A Bad Case of Piketty Syndrome
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) May 24, 2015
Researchers find that income inequality drags down growth -- but the problem isn't inequality at the top.

Universal basic skills: The primary development goal
Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann (VoxEU) May 24, 2015
Later this year, the UN will set the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals. This column argues that lots targets will make it hard for policymakers to enact real change. Instead, the primary post-2015 goals should focus on young people achieving basic skills. Basic skills, in turn, will help address issues of poverty and limited healthcare as well as help foster the new technologies needed to improve sustainable growth.

Cameron, Europe and the hand of history Financial Times Subscription Required
Gideon Rachman (FT) May 25, 2015
Britain has always tried to be a European and a global power.

India’s shadow banks play crucial role Financial Times Subscription Required
Henny Sender (FT) May 25, 2015
Country lacks well-developed credit markets to provide long-term capital.

Investors play a ‘greater fool’ game Financial Times Subscription Required
George Magnus (FT) May 25, 2015
Market anomalies abound as debt levels rise and interest rates stagnate.

Productivity: It’s a drag Financial Times Subscription Required
Sam Fleming and Chris Giles (FT) May 25, 2015
Restoring productivity levels is crucial to boosting living standards and filling tax coffers.

China's Supply-Sider Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
WSJ May 25, 2015
Is there a supply-sider inside Chinese Premier Li Keqiang struggling to get out?

China's Pivot to Latin America
Bloomberg View May 25, 2015
Strapped economies should be wary of Chinese overtures.

The Cost of Corruption in Latin America
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) May 25, 2015
Crooked government escalates violence. Citizens are fed up with both.

Greek Band-Aids: Less Effective, Rising Cost
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 25, 2015
Only a comprehensive solution will prevent exit from euro.

Austerity Is the Only Deal-Breaker
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) May 25, 2015
Greece's government is eager to implement an agenda that includes all of the economic reforms that its creditors expect, and is uniquely able to maintain the public’s support for a sound economic program. What it will not do is embrace a cure – deeper austerity – that kills the patient.

Lessons for the AIIB
Samura Kamara (Project Syndicate) May 25, 2015
Discussion about China’s establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has focused on questions about the AIIB’s governance and standards. This risks eclipsing a far more important discussion about the role that multilateral investment institutions play in supporting economic growth in emerging markets.

The Violence of Algorithms Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Taylor Owen (FA) May 25, 2015
Why Big Data is only as smart as those who generate it.

Rethinking macro policy: Ten takeaways
Olivier Blanchard (VoxEU) May 25, 2015
On 15-16 April 2015, the IMF organised the third conference on ‘Rethinking Macro Policy’. In this column, IMF’s Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard presents his personal takeaways from the conference. Though progress in macro policy is undeniable, confusion is unavoidable given the complex issues that remain to be settled.

A parallel currency for Greece: Part I
Biagio Bossone and Marco Cattaneo (VoxEU) May 25, 2015
To prevent it from defaulting on its debt, the Greek government might need to introduce a new domestic currency, in parallel to the euro. This column, the first in a two-part series, compares the current proposals for a parallel currency and discusses how such a policy instrument could promote economic recovery.

Why finance is too much of a good thing Financial Times Subscription Required
Martin Wolf (FT) May 26, 2015
It is very costly to police markets riddled with conflicts of interest and asymmetric information.

US must bring free trade talks into open Financial Times Subscription Required
Mark Wu (FT) May 26, 2015
The advisory system fuels fears that TPP will benefit corporate interests.

A new global order of cities Financial Times Subscription Required
Ivo Daalder (FT) May 26, 2015
Urban centres shape the world.

Backstop against euro-dollar parity break Financial Times Subscription Required
Jens Nordvig (FT) May 26, 2015
Reserve currency status is euro support while China cannot compete.

Tycoon financing in Asia gathers pace Financial Times Subscription Required
Jennifer Hughes (FT) May 26, 2015
Lucrative and growing business tempts investment banks.

Nigeria: The big oil fix Financial Times Subscription Required
William Wallis (FT) May 26, 2015
Battling chronic corruption, fuel shortages and calls to divest assets, the new president must repair the state-owned oil company.

Talent Loves English New York Times Subscription Required
David Brooks (NYT) May 26, 2015
As the world grows more prosperous, immigration is changing, and our ideas need to change with it.

Don’t Blame Trade for Slow Growth Wall Street Journal Subscription Required
William Galston (WSJ) May 26, 2015
The North American Free Trade Agreement’s track record tells us little about today’s concerns.

Will Greece Follow Ukraine's Gamble?
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) May 26, 2015
After months of patient negotiations with its creditors, the Ukrainian government decided to gamble on May 19—by passing a motion through parliament to impose a moratorium on paying international bondholders. This calculated measure was taken after talks with creditors bogged down earlier in May.

Why Poland Tossed Its President
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) May 26, 2015
Inequality weighs heavily on voters' happiness.

Channeling China’s Animal Spirits
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) May 26, 2015
The real test of China’s administrative reforms is whether they allow – and even facilitate – the effective functioning of market forces. With animal spirits – not the authorities – guiding it, China can build the high-value-added, high-tech economy of the future.

Europe’s Movement Against Moving
Harold James (Project Syndicate) May 26, 2015
The European Union has been a single labor market for nearly 30 years, but it was only after the global financial crisis that migration really took off. The result has been a backlash against it, both in the countries where workers arrive and, as Poland’s recent presidential election showed, in those from which they are leaving.

A Net Assessment of Europe
George Friedman (Stratfor) May 26, 2015
Last week I began this series with a Net Assessment of the World, in which I focused on the growing destabilization of the Eurasian land mass. This week I continue the series, which will ultimately analyze each region in detail, with an analysis of Europe. I start here, rather than in the Middle East, because while the increasing successes of the Islamic State are significant, the region itself is secondary to Europe in the broader perspective. The Middle East matters, but Europe is as economically productive as the United States and, for the past 500 years, has been the force that has reshaped the world. The Middle East matters a great deal; European crises can destabilize the world. What happens between Greece and Germany, for example, can have consequences in multiple directions. Therefore, since we have to start somewhere, let me start with Europe.

The U.S. Shale Boom Takes a Break Foreign Affairs Subscription Required
Jim Krane and Mark Agerton (FA) May 26, 2015
Life as the world's swing producer.

A parallel currency for Greece: Part II
Biagio Bossone and Marco Cattaneo (VoxEU) May 26, 2015
Introducing a currency in parallel to the euro could help Greece repay its external debt and resume economic activity. This second column in a two-part series evaluates the different options and their effects on aggregate demand and fiscal sustainability. The authors propose a tax credit certificates programme, which they argue could generate new spending capacity and avoid the adoption of new austerity measures.

A development bank made in China Financial Times Subscription Required
David Pilling (FT) May 27, 2015
It is possible that the AIIB will even exceed the standards of existing development lenders Read more >>

US must bring free trade talks into open Financial Times Subscription Required
Mark Wu (FT) May 27, 2015
The advisory system fuels fears that TPP will benefit corporate interests.

Backstop against euro-dollar parity break Financial Times Subscription Required
Jens Nordvig (FT) May 27, 2015
Reserve currency status is euro support while China cannot compete.

The AIIB and Chinese Strategy
Yuriko Koike (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2015
Next month, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will hold its first general meeting, the aim being to launch operations before the end of the year. Will it turn out to be a bank of China, by China, and for China, or will it pursue a multilateral agenda in the manner of the World Bank and regional development banks?

The Currency Manipulation Charade
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2015
The US Senate narrowly defeated a “currency manipulation” amendment to a bill giving President Barack Obama so-called “fast-track” authority to negotiate the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. But the issue could return as the debate shifts to the House of Representatives.

China’s housing boom
Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong and Li-An Zhou (VoxEU) May 27, 2015
China has experienced a decade-long housing market boom, with the market being compared to the housing bubbles of Japan in the 1980s and the US in the 2000s. This column uses data on mortgage loans in 120 cities to investigate whether the Chinese housing market might trigger a financial crisis. Although price growth rates are comparable to those experienced by Japan prior to its bubble, substantial income growth and high mortgage down payment ratios helped support the steady participation of low-income households. A high expectation of future income growth, however, might have been a key driver of price-to-income ratios, and this may not be sustainable.

Pragmatism, the Greek crisis, and structural reforms
Andreas Müller, Kjetil Storesletten and Fabrizio Zilibotti (VoxEU) May 27, 2015
In the policy circles, there are confronting positions regarding Greece’s assistance programme and the structural reforms it should implement. This column argues that the best response is pragmatism and sequential compromise. Efficiency requires an assistance programme providing the country with debt relief with an intervention of an institution such as the IMF. Thus, misconceived economic principles could bring large welfare losses for Greece and renewed financial instability in the Eurozone.

Finance must call time on foul play Financial Times Subscription Required
Gillian Tett (FT) May 28, 2015
Money talks — and without tipsters, regulators have little hope of knowing what is going on.

Will share buyback craze spread to Europe? Financial Times Subscription Required
Ralph Atkins (FT) May 28, 2015
It could, but there are reasons why behaviour will be different from US.

Executive pay key to productivity puzzle Financial Times Subscription Required
Andrew Smithers (FT) May 28, 2015
The challenge is to alter incentives from those that damage the economy to those that help it.

Finance Officials Focus on Economic Growth at Group of 7 Meeting New York Times Subscription Required
Jack Ewing (NYT) May 29, 2015
At a closed gathering, there was a consensus that governments should invest more in infrastructure like roads, airports and broadband Internet.

Italy: Back on its feet Financial Times Subscription Required
James Politi (FT) May 28, 2015
Italians may not feel it yet, but the economy is showing signs of life — but more reforms are needed.

IMF Announces Chinese Currency No Longer "Undervalued"
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 19 May 28, 2015
The Chinese Renminbi is "no longer undervalued," officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday, following its latest review of the Asian economic giant.

Post-2015 Development Agenda Talks Consider Follow-up, Review Options
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 19 May 28, 2015
Delegates meeting at UN headquarters last week remained divided on how best to follow-up and review a planned post-2015 development agenda, including a set of sustainable development goals (SDGs).

Stop Calling China a Currency Manipulator
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) May 28, 2015
The yuan deserves a shot as a reserve currency.

Greece's Cuban Path to a Parallel Currency
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) May 28, 2015
Parallel currencies work best when backed up by coercion.

The Downside of Cleaning Up India
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) May 28, 2015
Efforts to end rent-seeking may be hurting businesses.

China's New Silk Road: Implications for the US
Shuaihua Wallace Cheng (YaleGlobal) May 28, 2015
China’s responds to US pivot to Asia with One Belt, One Road – that could offer opportunity for the US.

Freedom, Global Poverty, and the Failure of Foreign Aid
Andrew Syrios (Mises Daily) May 29, 2015
The standard narrative floating about the mainstream press is that the developing world is held back by a quagmire of free market fundamentalism.

The OECD’s Business and Finance Outlook looks at the Greatest Puzzle of Today
Adrian Blundell-Wignall (OECD Insight) May 29, 2015
The greatest puzzle today is that since the global crisis financial markets see so little risk, with asset prices rising everywhere in response to zero interest rates and quantitative easing, while companies that invest in the real economy appear see so much more risk

Premier Li as Fitzcarraldo: China's Latin Role
Helmut Reisen (Globalist) May 29, 2015
While China's role in Latin America is growing, it is likely to remain limited.

Nigeria Needs a New Start
Bloomberg View May 29, 2015
The new president should focus on fixing its corrupt national oil company.

John Nash's Game Theory and Greece
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 29, 2015
The Nobel laureate's insights don't point to a happy ending.

The Inflation Puzzle
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) May 29, 2015
The low rate of inflation in the US is a puzzle, especially to economists who focus on the relationship between inflation and changes in the monetary base. To solve it requires understanding the change in the role of the reserves that commercial banks hold at the Federal Reserve.

Varoufakis’s Great Game
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) May 29, 2015
Many people in Europe seem to believe that Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, a political neophyte, does not know how to play the cards that his country has been dealt. They should think again – before Greece walks away with the pot.

Evidence of political budget cycles
Alberto Alesina and Matteo Paradisi (VoxEU) May 29, 2015
Most of us intuitively believe that politicians reduce taxes and increase spending in the run up to elections to curry favour with voters. But our logic may well be flawed. This column presents evidence from recent Italian elections suggesting that things aren’t so black and white. Yes, some municipalities set lower tax rates in the run up to elections. But the evidence also suggests that municipalities running deficits will think twice about tax breaks and spending sprees. Politicians in big cities are also more cautious, choosing to focus not on tax but on more pressing local issues.

We Need Actual Free Trade, Not the TPP
Ryan McMaken (Mises Daily) May 30, 2015
Brendan Nyhan at The New York Times seems to be under the impression that the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) has something to do with free trade.

Nigeria: I Have A Dream
Bill Humphrey (Globalist) May 30, 2015
At last there is true hope on the horizon for Africa’s most important country and economy.

Can Nigeria Finally Turn the Corner?
Globalist May 30, 2015
Africa's largest economy ranks among the hardest places to do business.

Europe and Anti-Europe
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) May 30, 2015
The worst-case scenario for the EU’s future looks increasingly likely: “Grexit” (Greece leaving the eurozone), “Brexit” (the UK leaving the EU), and a Spanish election result that resembles Greece’s. In other words, nearly 60 years of European integration could be undone in the next 18 months.

Greece, Argentina, and the Middle-Income Trap
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) May 30, 2015
Aside from an established tradition of bad macroeconomics, what do Greece and Argentina have in common? One answer is that they were the world’s longest-held captives of the so-called middle-income trap – and remain within its reach to this day.

Monetary Policy for the Next Recession
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) May 31, 2015
Independence for central banks only makes sense if they have the tools to do their job.

Renew the Africa Trade Pact
Bloomberg View May 31, 2015
Congress should renew the deal long-term -- and expand it.

The Liquidity Time Bomb
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) May 31, 2015
Advanced countries’ central banks have managed to keep interest rates low, reduce the volatility of bond markets, and lift many asset prices. But a series of recent shocks suggests that macro liquidity has become linked with severe market illiquidity.

The Education Myth
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) May 31, 2015
In an era characterized by political polarization and policy paralysis, one area of agreement is that the key to inclusive economic growth is, as Tony Blair put in his 2001 reelection campaign, “education, education, education.” Unfortunately, the idea that education can be a growth strategy simply does not hold water.

Small Steps to European Growth
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) May 31, 2015
When it comes to pro-growth reform in Europe, there is no magic bullet: There can be no centralization, and coordination always risks becoming murky. But a more decentralized, incentive-based policy regime would be a good start.

Good Trade Intentions Gone Bad
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) May 31, 2015
The US should be having a full and open debate about the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership, because the provisions of the 12-country agreement on trade and investment will have important consequences for Americans and their partners. Unfortunately, the Obama administration has opted for secrecy.

What institutions do Asian countries need to keep growing?
David Dollar (EAF) May 31, 2015
The notion of a ‘middle-income trap’ has entered the lexicon of policymakers in emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere.

A unifying approach to bubble prevention
Dirk Schoenmaker (VoxEU) May 31, 2015
Debt financing amplifies the effects of asset prices fluctuations across the financial system and this can produce bubbles. Regulation therefore increasingly focusses on restricting debt financing. Although there is no silver bullet for making the financial system failure-proof, this column argues that policymakers should adopt an integrated and consistent macroprudential approach across the financial system in order to help prevent businesses moving to less-regulated pastures.

Europe’s problem is Russia, not Putin Financial Times Subscription Required
Thomas Graham (FT) May 31, 2015
Moscow is not a rising revolutionary force but one seeking to restore power.

Why Britain has no chance of EU treaty change Financial Times Subscription Required
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) May 31, 2015
Germany will boycott meaningful reforms for as long as its economy benefits from the status quo.

The Unrealized Horrors of Population Explosion New York Times Subscription Required
Clyde Haverman (NYT) May 31, 2015
In 1968, a book by a Stanford biologist predicted doom for the planet in coming decades. Whatever became of the population bomb?

That 1914 Feeling New York Times Subscription Required
Paul Krugman (NYT) May 31, 2015
Despite good intentions on both sides, it is not certain that a deal will be reached between Greece and its creditors.

The Shale Boom Shifts Into Higher Gear
WSJ May 31, 2015
Oil production is becoming a modern manufacturing process, with frackers using the ‘just-in-time’ approach.



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