News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

Buhari’s second chance to boost Nigeria
Tolu Ogunlesi (FT) Apr 1, 2015
Hopefully the history’s lessons will not be lost on the incoming president.

Round two in US bid for Asian influence
David Pilling (FT) Apr 1, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is just as likely to annoy America’s allies in region as reassure them.

ECB QE drives confidence for now
Ralph Atkins (FT) Apr 1, 2015
Not everyone in the eurozone is enjoying a smooth ride.

Asia forum shows off China’s vigour
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 1, 2015
Asia forum shows off China’s vigour as its neighbours come to pay homage.

Emerging markets: The great unravelling
James Kynge and Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Apr 1, 2015
Developing economies are suffering their biggest capital outflows since the financial crisis.

Europe’s Low Interest in Investment
WSJ Apr 1, 2015
A study points to a lack of profit opportunities, not a lack of money.

When Should the IMF Make Exceptions? Part II
Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Apr 1, 2015
The current debate over the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exceptional access policy centers on a precedent that was establish in 2010 with respect to Greece. In May of that year, when the Greek program was presented to the executive board, the IMF staff stated that it considered Greece's debt to be sustainable, but the "significant uncertainties associated with that judgment make it difficult to state categorically that this is the case with a high probability" [emphasis added].

Chinese Cash Versus American Might
Noah Feldman (Bloomberg View) Apr 1, 2015
This is what Cool War looks like: Countries like Australia need China's trade but the U.S.'s protection.

China Isn't Ready for Creative Destruction
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 1, 2015
China's system of moral hazard won't be worth much until it passes far more ambitious financial reforms.

Europe’s Currency Manipulation
Stefan Kawalec (Project Syndicate) Apr 1, 2015
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, which the EU and the US currently are negotiating, would, studies say, boost welfare and reduce unemployment in the both economies, as well as in other countries. There is one major barrier to realizing these benefits: the euro.

Bernanke Says Global Imbalances Bedevil the World Economy. Discuss.
Josh Barro (NYT) Apr 2, 2015
Maybe the question we should ask is how we can make developing countries unafraid to borrow from us again and to buy more of our products

TPP, TPA Timeline in Focus Ahead of Japan PM's Visit to Washington
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 12 Apr 2, 2015
The next few weeks are expected to be crucial ones for the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks, as trade observers eye a planned trip by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to the US this month and a possible ministerial-level meeting of the TPP countries in May as opportunities for progress before the American election cycle kicks into high gear.

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Draws Broad Interest as Initial Application Deadline Passes
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 12 Apr 2, 2015
The new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has drawn over 40 requests from countries interested in becoming prospective founding members, Chinese officials confirmed this week, following the close of the initial application deadline this Tuesday.

UN Post-2015 Talks Focus on Draft Sustainable Development Goals
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 12 Apr 2, 2015
Divisions on how best to finalise a set of sustainable development goals (SDGs) moved to the fore last week during a New York meeting of delegates charged with hammering out a post-2015 development agenda.

Mr. Tspiras Tries to Blackmail Europe
Alexander Marguier (Globalist) Apr 2, 2015
Now Greece acts as Putin’s and Russia’s Trojan horse.

What Greece Needs Now From Tsipras
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Apr 2, 2015
Germany and France and the art of correcting erroneous economic policies.

Modi Needs a Farm Fix
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Apr 2, 2015
Half the population is being left behind.

The Global Obesity Threat
Richard Dobbs and Boyd Swinburn (Project Syndicate) Apr 2, 2015
The global obesity epidemic is not just a pressing health concern; it is also a threat to the world economy. The total economic impact of obesity is about $2 trillion a year, or 2.8% of world GDP – roughly equivalent to the damage caused by smoking or armed violence, war, and terrorism.

In Defense of Angela Merkel
Bernard-Henri Lévy (Project Syndicate) Apr 2, 2015
All over Europe, right-wing and left-wing protesters alike have been invoking Germany's Nazi past to criticize the policies of its current chancellor. The problem with this Germanophobia is not simply that it is stupid, or that it further erodes Europe; the real problem is that it strengthens Europe's genuine fascists.

Ten Trends That Could Shake Global Policy Thinking
David B. Dewitt and Hayley Avery (CIGI) Apr 2, 2015
Ten major global challenges are expected to drive international governance policy research over the next five years, a broad consultation with stakeholders indicates.

Capital control measures: A new dataset
Andrés Fernández, Michael W Klein, Alessandro Rebucci, Martin Schindler and Martín Uribe (VoxEU) Apr 2, 2015
A renewed interest in capital controls following the Great Recession requires a serious empirical reconsideration of their effectiveness as policy instruments. This column introduces a new dataset that features unprecedented levels of disaggregation between asset categories, and distinguishes transactions between residents and non-residents. The ensuing debate should take note.

Jobs Report Adds to Evidence of a Slowing Economy
Justin Wolfers (NYT) Apr 3, 2015
On average, economic data released so far through 2015 has tended to be worse than expected.

Brazil's Inertial GDP
Monica de Bolle (PIIE/O Estado de São Paulo) Apr 3, 2015
"Inertia," a widespread term among physicists and economists, is the state of immobility that may characterize an object. Applied to inflation, it means the tendency of prices to remain high, even if the government is actively engaged in bringing them down. Brazil has suffered from greater inflationary inertia in the past than current evidence would suggest. However, domestic prices continue to be stubbornly inert. Part of the reason is that informal indexation mechanisms still prevail as defense strategies against the country's longstanding foe. Adding insult to injury, in recent years the Brazilian government reintroduced perilous formal indexation mechanisms that increase price resistance—backward-looking rules for minimum wage adjustment are an example of this.

Rethinking Emerging Markets
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 3, 2015
The emerging markets have grown markedly since their relatively modest beginnings, and they now contain far too much diversity to meet the requirement of shared characteristics.

The Solar Price Revolution
Klaus Töpfer (Project Syndicate) Apr 3, 2015
We should not underestimate the tremendous potential of renewable energy to build global wealth and fight poverty. As solar power becomes increasingly cost-effective, putting in place policies to favor its adoption will drive economic development and help fight climate change.

Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation
Stefano Giglio, Bryan T. Kelly & Seth Pruitt (VoxEU) Apr 3, 2015
An important research question is whether the current measures of systemic risk are useful for policymakers. This column presents new evidence on this topic. The relevance of a measure depends on how informative it is regarding how financial distress translates into real macroeconomic outcomes. The findings indicate that few systemic risk measures predict macroeconomic shocks. Interestingly, the relationship between systematic risk and future macroeconomic shocks is not symmetric.

The Rescue of Brazil
Angel Ubide (PIIE/El Pais) Apr 4, 2015
The Brazilian economy has all the characteristics of a country under the tutelage of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. The list of its economic imbalances is endless: a rampant current account deficit in excess of 4 percent of GDP, an exchange rate that has long been overvalued but that has collapsed in just a few months, a public debt ratio to GDP in a rapid upward trend, a fiscal deficit of over 6 percent of GDP despite a high tax burden, an annual inflation rate of nearly 8 percent that has unanchored inflation expectations, an accelerated growth of wages well above their very low productivity.

Asian Values RIP
Ian Buruma (Project Syndicate) Apr 4, 2015
Few politicians have garnered as many effusive public tributes after their death as Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s founder and former prime minister. But Lee was hardly alone in advocating capitalism with an iron fist, so why has he – rather than, say, Augusto Pinochet – been praised by everyone from Barack Obama to Vladimir Putin?

Unsecured firm debt and the business cycle
Costas Azariadis, Leo Kaas and Yi Wen (VoxEU) Apr 4, 2015
A large literature in macroeconomics shows how credit market shocks can propagate through deterioration in the value of collateral. This column decomposes debt into secured and unsecured components and investigates their effects separately. While secured debt is acyclical, unsecured debt is confirmed to predict GDP movements in accordance with the standard financial accelerator mechanism.

Appetite for oil yet to be tested fully
Ed Crooks (FT) Apr 5, 2015
Sector has held up in times of easy money but can it last?

Poland: Barriers to business
Henry Foy (FT) Apr 5, 2015
With a string of legal disputes heading for the courts is Warsaw’s open-door policy towards foreign investment in reverse?

Time US woke up to new economic era
Lawrence Summers (FT) Apr 5, 2015
Failure of strategy and tactics was a long time coming and it should lead to a comprehensive review.

Tsipras will not find salvation in Moscow
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Apr 5, 2015
Putin will be aware how many billions of euros eurozone members have sunk into Greece.

China Steps Back
Ho-Fung Hung (NYT) Apr 5, 2015
Beijing's new investment bank isn't an attempt at world domination. Rather, it's a concession that China's aggressive bilateral initiatives are backfiring.

Economics and Elections
Paul Krugman (NYT) Apr 5, 2015
What mainly matters is income growth immediately before a vote. Can anything be done about this weakness?

Greece Should Be Wary of Mr. Putin
NYT Apr 6, 2015
It might be tempting, but Greece cannot count on Russia to ride to its financial rescue.

A glimpse into a future of UK deflation
Diane Coyle (FT) Apr 6, 2015
A quick and politically painless way to reduce debt is a bout of fast-rising prices.

China strikes it lucky over new bank
Tom Mitchell (FT) Apr 6, 2015
AIIB success is the result of a clever strategy shift by Beijing.

Eleven Negative Surprises in the Euro Area
Jan Zilinsky (PIIE) Apr 6, 2015
In 11 cases, the European Economic Forecasts from February 2014 had anticipated higher growth rates for euro area members than actually materialized. Although last year's GDP data is still either estimated or provisional for five euro area economies (Cyprus, Portugal, Greece, Spain, and the Netherlands), several surprises stand out: Italy, Austria, and Latvia all failed to achieve their expected growth by 1 percentage point or more.

Greece's Damaging Impasse
Angel Ubide (PIIE) Apr 6, 2015
Since the elections in Greece were announced last fall, and especially after the installation of the Syriza-led government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, the Greek saga has developed along expected lines. The incipient recovery that Greece was experiencing last year has ground to a halt and turned into what is very likely a new recession. The rhetoric out of Athens and Syriza’s confrontation with its European partners have scared the private sector and triggered a massive capital outflow. Greece has decoupled from the recent improvement in euro area activity, as the divergent evolution of the Purchasing Managers Index shows.

How many billionaires are there in the world?
Globalist Apr 6, 2015
Stunning facts about the world’s wealthiest people.

US Allies Join China's AIIB: What Now?
Ellen Bork (Democracy Road) Apr 6, 2015
US policy has sent so many mixed signals on Chinese aggression that it’s no surprise American allies have broken with Washington over Beijing’s new bank.

Greece’s Worst Option: IMF Default
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 6, 2015
Greece has to make a $500 million payment to the IMF by April 9. It is hard to imagine any outcome that would improve the country's lot.

Bitcoin and Market Crashes
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Apr 6, 2015
Big market movements might be predictable after all.

Banks Need Capital, Not Complexity
Bloomberg View Apr 6, 2015
In regulating banks, it's best to keep it simple.

For Energy Security, Export Oil
Bloomberg View Apr 6, 2015
American mythology about energy independence hurts the economy by keeping oil producers from selling crude overseas.

Will China’s Infrastructure Bank Work?
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Apr 6, 2015
With China's creation of the new $50 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, most of the debate has centered on the futile US effort to discourage other advanced economies from joining. Bu the real question is why multilateral development lending has so often failed, and what might be done to make it work better.

Capital flows and domestic and international order: Trilemmas from macroeconomics to political economy and international relations
Michael Bordo & Harold James (VoxEU) Apr 6, 2015
The classic exchange rate trilemma presented a formulation for analysing the trade-offs between the incompatible macroeconomic goals of capital mobility and monetary autonomy within a fixed exchange rate regime. This column shows how policy trilemma analysis can be extended to other domains, specifically financial stability, political economy, and international relations. It argues that analysing these trade-offs can help to identify policy options that balance macroeconomic objectives and political realities in the face of globalisation.

Have Long-Term Inflation Expectations Declined?
Fernanda Nechio (FRBSF Economic Letter) Apr 6, 2015
Based on surveys of professional forecasters, expectations for price inflation 5 to 10 years ahead have edged down over the past few years. This decline seems to be primarily driven by revised expectations from forecasters who overestimated inflation in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Currently, the median survey-based expectation for long-term inflation is close to its pre-recession level and appears well anchored at the Fed’s 2% longer-run inflation objective.

Emerging market banks face tough challenge
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 7, 2015
Slowdown in loan growth could lead to better credit allocation.

China will struggle to keep its momentum
Martin Wolf (FT) Apr 7, 2015
As the economy slows, the demand for investment is likely to fall more than proportionately.

US impatience with submissive Europe
Robert Kaplan (FT) Apr 7, 2015
Why should Washington defend a continent that will not defend itself.

Today’s luxury is tomorrow’s normality
Andrew McAfee (FT) Apr 7, 2015
Tech progress makes initially expensive things cheaper, so hastens their spread.

Reforms needed to lift Japan’s economy
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 7, 2015
Two years of Abenomics has boosted little more than asset prices.

Misinterpretations of New Data on International Reserves
Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Apr 7, 2015
The posting by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of the latest data on the currency composition of international reserves (COFER) as of the end of 2014 brought some overheated reactions by investment banks and the media. J.P. Morgan, for example, focused on what it said was the euro allocation hitting the lowest level since 2002 while the US dollar share climbed to the highest since 2009.

Greece Brightens, Brazil Darkens
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Apr 7, 2015
The tale of two economies shows how Greece gains from the European Union as Brazil suffers from being alone.

How Not to Deal With China
Bloomberg View Apr 7, 2015
The worst thing is to oppose China's ambitions and then fail.

Creative Self-Disruption
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Apr 7, 2015
Companies like Uber, Apple, and Airbnb have succeeded by exploiting a fundamental trend affecting nearly all industries: individual empowerment through the Internet, app technology, digitalization, and social media. If traditional firms hope to remain competitive, they must follow suit.

Regulate the Carry Trade
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Apr 7, 2015
When the global financial crisis occurred, exchange rates were the least interesting part of the macroeconomic debate, causing a 2011 French proposal for a sweeping reform of the international monetary regime to go nowhere. Today, they are the focus of intense anxiety, which is being fueled by one financial practice in particular.

China’s Not-So-New Not-So-Normal
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Apr 7, 2015
During a recent speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping described what he calls the Chinese economy's “new normal" of slower growth, following three decades of double-digit expansion. But, though China is unlikely to continue on a path of double-digit growth, there is little about its economy that can be considered normal.

Lower Potential Growth: A New Reality
IMF Survey Apr 7, 2015
Since the onset of the global financial crisis, many economies have faced lower growth in their productive capacity, which may slow the rise of living standards in the future, according to a new study by the IMF.

Catalyst? TTIP’s impact on the Rest
M. Sait Akman, Simon J Evenett and Patrick Low (VoxEU) Apr 7, 2015
Apparently a number of assumptions have been made in Brussels and Washington DC about how the rest of the world will react to the successful conclusion of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Many of the contributions to this new eBook identify alternatives for third countries that do not involve throwing themselves at the mercy of US and European trade negotiators. TTIP may not trigger the chain reaction that its advocates seek.

Naked truth about negative lending
Richard Milne (FT) Apr 8, 2015
Concerns grow over whether extremely low interest rates will fuel housing bubbles.

Currency wars: is the US the new victim?
Andrew Balls (FT) Apr 8, 2015
Dollar strength reflects global policy divergence, not direct intervention.

Greece can replace stalemate with sanity
Reza Moghadam (FT) Apr 8, 2015
If Athens cannot deliver critical reforms, it better leave the eurozone.

China: Projections of power
Charles Clover (FT) Apr 8, 2015
Beijing’s double-digit increases in defence spending have alarmed neighbours but budgets and troop levels are only half the story.

The investment bust (explained)
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Apr 8, 2015
One of the great disappointments of the weak economic recovery has been the sluggish revival of business investment.

The Case for Letting Greece Go
WSJ Apr 8, 2015
The risk now is political contagion from rewarding non-reform.

How the New AIIB Dwarfs the Asian Development Bank
Helmut Reisen (Globalist) Apr 8, 2015
China is well on its way to building a Sino-centric global financial system.

Cryptocurrency Exchanges Emerge as Regulators Try to Keep Up
Larry Greenemeier (SciAm) Apr 8, 2015
Trust issues plague bitcoin and other digital currencies. Licensed exchanges could change that

Clean Energy Revolution Is Ahead of Schedule
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 8, 2015
Clean energy production and power storage is getting more efficient and cheaper, closing the gap with fossil fuels.

Feckless Europe Kowtows to China
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Apr 8, 2015
For many years yet, the U.S. will be the world's pre-eminent power. A Europe intent on disarming itself had better pray this state of affairs continues.

The Secret of Singapore’s Success
Stavros N. Yiannouka (Project Syndicate) Apr 8, 2015
Lee Kuan Yew’s achievements have been the subject of much global discussion since his recent death. But one aspect of his success has been little mentioned: the investments that he, and his successors, made in education.

The Case for Turkey in Europe
Volkan Bozkir (Project Syndicate) Apr 8, 2015
In the midst of a tumultuous region, Turkey represents an island of peace, democracy, security, and stability. As efforts to restart accession talks between Turkey and the European Union move forward, negotiators should bear in mind the country's political and economic progress.

International Banking Safer Since Crisis
IMF Survey Apr 8, 2015
Banks have cut cross-border lending and rely more on local lending by subsidiaries. This makes financial systems in host countries safer, and should promote stable international banking.

Plain Vanilla Investment Funds Can Pose Risks
IMF Survey Apr 8, 2015
The asset management industry plays a rising role in financial system. This role has benefits and risks for financial stability, so more “hands on” supervision is needed, with better data and oversight.

Demographic Structure and the Macroeconomy
Yunus Aksoy and Henrique Basso (VoxEU) Apr 8, 2015
The disappointing recovery after the crisis has sparked renewed interest in the medium-run outlook of advanced economies. Lower population growth and its impact on labour supply gained widespread prominence. This column takes a more general view identifying the impact of the evolution of demographic structure, or the entire age profile, on the macroeconomy. Age profile changes have significant implications for savings, investment and growth but also affect innovation activities. The population aging predicted for the next decades is found to be a significant factor in reducing output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries.

Lagarde: Prevent “New Mediocre” From Becoming “New Reality”
IMF Survey Apr 9, 2015
To prevent a period of protracted low growth from taking hold, policymakers should work together to pick up the pace of the recovery and create more growth now and in the future, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a speech at the Atlantic Council on April 9.

Corporate cash cows trim investment bulls
Ralph Atkins (FT) Apr 9, 2015
Concern grows at lack of corporate capital expenditure in QE era.

La Caixa: Spain’s quiet powerhouse
Tobias Buck (FT) Apr 9, 2015
Little-known abroad but hugely influential at home, the Catalan group has emerged from Spain’s financial crisis better than most.

Brazilian Sclerosis
Monica de Bolle (PIIE/Folha de São Paulo) Apr 9, 2015
The evidence suggests that Brazilian investment is sclerotic, like European unemployment during the 1980s and 1990s. According to the latest data, Brazilian investment rates over the last 20 years have barely budged from 19 percent of GDP.

India's Missing Investors
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Apr 9, 2015
The country's stock rally is relying too much on foreigners.

An Open Letter to the Eurozone
Harley Bassman (PIMCO) Apr 9, 2015
Greater asset/liability management flexibility could potentially enable managers to earn a return closer to the true cost of their liabilities, and it could also increase asset velocity to enable QE to be as effective in the eurozone as it has been in both the U.S. and Japan.

China’s Slow-Growth Opportunity
Yu Yongding (Project Syndicate) Apr 9, 2015
After four disappointing years, Chinese economists have come to understand that the economy’s growth slowdown is structural, rather than cyclical, meaning that China’s potential growth rate has settled onto a significantly lower plateau. But this may not be bad news.

Why Social Progress Matters
Michael Porter (Project Syndicate) Apr 9, 2015
Economic growth has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and improved the lives of many more over the last half-century. Yet it is increasingly evident that a model of human development based on economic progress alone is incomplete.

The Eurozone’s False Recovery
Philippe Legrain (Project Syndicate) Apr 9, 2015
At first glance, the eurozone economy seems like it might finally be on the mend. On closer inspection, however, recent improvements turn out to be modest and probably temporary, casting further doubt on the prevailing policy agenda of fiscal consolidation and structural reform.

Nations Line Up to Join China-Led Infrastructure Bank
Will Hickey (YaleGlobal) Apr 9, 2015
China’s AIIB could be source of sour grapes or valid concerns on standards for US and Japan

QE, ‘European style’: Be bold but parsimonious
Urszula Szczerbowicz & Natacha Valla (VoxEU) Apr 9, 2015
Sovereign bonds are the latest and biggest quantitative easing (QE) policy conducted by the Eurozone. This column argues that instead of sovereign bonds, the Eurozone should focus on assets that are the closest to job-creating, growth-enhancing, and innovation-promoting activities. In particular, instruments issued by agencies and European institutions should be given a prominent role. But they should also be selected to promote the financing of long-term growth and jobs, not of unsustainable government expenditure.

Too Much Untapped Potential to Buy into the Secular Stagnation Argument
PIIE Apr 10, 2015
Ben Bernanke has joined Lawrence Summers in debating whether the US and other major world economies are in a period of secular stagnation, where a chronic shortfall in demand is causing and will continue to cause low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates.

Will Iran Become a Successful Emerging Market?
David Hale (Globalist) Apr 10, 2015
If the nuclear deal with Iran succeeds, the world will see a great shift in geopolitics and economic growth.

Could fixing the old crisis make the next crisis more painful?
Brian Caplen (Banker) Apr 10, 2015
Regulators have spent the past few years ensuring that a repeat of the last crisis will not happen. However, as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has highlighted in a letter to shareholders, these actions could only be serving to worsen the effects of the next crisis. He may have a point.

Latin America Will Tackle Corruption Later
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Apr 10, 2015
At the Summit of the Americas, there's an invisible elephant in the room.

GE Doesn't Want to Be a Big Bank Anymore
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Apr 10, 2015
This is a great time to start a non-bank financial company, but not a great time to already have a big one.

Citizens for a Clean Economy
Monica Araya (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2015
Over the past 20 years, environmental policies have been decided behind closed doors – with little input from the people who will be most affected by the negotiations. The good news is that a new pattern of citizen participation is emerging, especially in developing countries, as new voices and fresh ideas enter the debate.

American Leadership in a Multipolar World
Paola Subacchi (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2015
The US, like many aging celebrities, is struggling to share the stage with new faces, especially China. The upcoming meetings of the IMF and the World Bank – two institutions dominated by the US and its Western allies – provide an ideal opportunity to change that.

Money for Nothing
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2015
With interest rates close to zero throughout the eurozone – and expected to remain low for quite some time – debt-service has become a lot easier, even for countries like Greece and Spain. As a result, the Maastricht Treaty’s cap on public debt – and the "fiscal compact" adopted to reinforce it – is meaningless.

Making the Most of More Aid
Ángel Gurría and Erik Solheim (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2015
In 2014, for the second consecutive year, official development assistance reached a historic high. But such spending could have a substantially greater impact if it were used to mobilize domestic tax flows and private investment in aid-dependent countries.

Unsafe and Unsound Banks
NYT Apr 11, 2015
The banks should hold enough capital to make bailouts unnecessary.

Andy Warhol as a Guide to Trade
Arthur C. Brooks (NYT) Apr 11, 2015
Look to the simple solution to fight poverty.

The euro-zone revival: Don’t get europhoric
Economist Apr 11, 2015
Investors are becoming excited about Europe again---too excited.

Should we be spooked by deflation? A look at the historical record
Claudio Borio, Magdalena Erdem, Andrew Filardo and Boris Hofmann (VoxEU) Apr 11, 2015
Concerns about deflation – falling prices of goods and services – are rooted in the view that it is very costly. This column tests the historical link between output growth and deflation in a sample covering 140 years for up to 38 economies. The evidence suggests that this link is weak and derives largely from the Great Depression. The authors find a stronger link between output growth and asset price deflations, particularly during postwar property price deflations. There is no evidence that high debt has so far raised the cost of goods and services price deflations, in so-called debt deflations. The most damaging interaction appears to be between property price deflations and private debt.

Macroeconomists need new tools to challenge consensus
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Apr 12, 2015
For the moment, the traditionalists still rule.

Japan needs a working hours overhaul
David Pilling (FT) Apr 12, 2015
The corporate culture the country is stuck with is unsuited to the challenges companies face.

Shell’s move just a start for energy sector
Nick Butler (FT) Apr 12, 2015
The merger could lead to wider consolidation in oil and gas.

EM outflows raise heat on fund managers
Jonathan Ford (FT) Apr 12, 2015
Sudden change in conditions in developing world has exposed strikingly aggressive positions.

European M&A will test soaring dollar
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Apr 12, 2015
Bankers in the City of London sound more upbeat than they have for years.

Why Europe Needs to Save Greece
Anders Borg (Project Syndicate) Apr 12, 2015
The Greeks, it can be argued, have not earned the right to be saved, but Greece's exit from the euro is not the best option for the country or for the European Union. Whether or not the Greeks are deserving of assistance, it is in Europe's interest to help them.

A new age of Chinese growth
Cai Fang and Lu Yang (EAF) Apr 12, 2015
Productivity, not reproductivity, offers real potential for sustaining Chinese growth.

Lessons from the 1982 Mexican Debt Crisis for Greece
Carlos Cantú, KeyYong Park & Aaron Tornell (VoxEU) Apr 12, 2015
The wisdom of structural reform during a crisis is a subject of heated debate. This column compares Greece’s experience to that of Mexico during the debt crisis of the 1980s. Mexico did not receive a haircut until seven years into the crisis – after structural reform was already underway. In Mexico that reform was the outcome of an internal conversation – not a diktat from the outside – and it happened during the height of the crisis.

GE Capital tells a cautionary tale
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Apr 13, 2015
Unit’s history is a warning against getting too big.

China will react if US weaponises trade
Michael Levi (FT) Apr 13, 2015
Do not pitch TPP as the economic counterpart to a military strategy.

World does not hear west’s deaf prophets
Mark Mazower (FT) Apr 13, 2015
Europe and the US have been convinced of their own truths for too long.

How to invest for renewed dollar strength
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Apr 12, 2015
Benign influence on global rebalancing or financial nuisance?

Biotech: Making sense of the science
David Crow (FT) Apr 13, 2015
As big pharma bets huge sums on the next breakthrough drugs, some investors fear another bubble.

The Fed Can Be Patient About Raising Interest Rates
WSJ Apr 13, 2015
Core inflation has been stuck between 1.3% and 1.7% since mid-2012, and isn’t forecast to reach 2% until 2017.

China’s Best Bet: Doubling Down on Reform, Not Stimulus
Henry M. Paulson Jr (WSJ) Apr 13, 2015
Slowing growth isn’t a sign of disaster, but it also can’t be cured by pumping money. What’s needed is freedom.

Asian Stocks Get All Bubbly
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 13, 2015
This already seems to be the year of the Asian stock bubble.

Yes, Worry About the Stock Market
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 13, 2015
The U.S. economy is doing well and stocks globally are surging, and that's making legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller nervous.

Asia’s Multilateralism
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Apr 13, 2015
In March, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Italy joined more than 30 other countries as founding members of the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which will do what existing institutional arrangements cannot: help Asia meet its massive infrastructure needs. So why has the US sought to undermine the effort?

Optimising the Eurozone
Frances Coppola (Pieria) Apr 13, 2015
It is often said that the Eurozone's unemployment problem arises from the fact that it is not an optimum currency area. But the real problem is Eurozone governance

Expect Further Divergence in Emerging Market Economies
Michael A. Gomez and Lupin Rahman (PIMCO) Apr 13, 2015
Our baseline for Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico overall is growth of 1.5%-2.5% year-over-year through first-quarter 2016, with negative output gaps for Brazil and Russia in particular. Our baseline is that EM as a whole is likely to be able to weather a gradual and predictable Fed exit, but that there may be volatility and accidents along the way. We are focusing on select opportunities across countries, credits and markets.

Optimal Policy and Market-Based Expectations
Michael D. Bauer and Glenn D. Rudebusch (FRBSF Econ Letter) Apr 13, 2015
Financial market prices contain valuable information about investors’ views regarding future interest rates, inflation, and other economic variables. However, such market-based expectations can be hard to interpret because changes in risk and liquidity premiums also affect asset prices. In practice, policymakers should be cautious in relying on the expectations information in market prices.

Economic future that may never brighten
Martin Wolf (FT) Apr 14, 2015
The decline in potential growth leads to debate about the savings glut and secular stagnation.

Europe’s debtor paradise will end in tears
John Plender (FT) Apr 14, 2015
Nasty surprises lurk for those who have embraced negative yields.

The long arm of India’s tax authorities
James Crabtree (FT) Apr 14, 2015
Global fund managers are the latest to be hit by unexpected demands.

Bitcoin, Blockchain and the Technology Revolution
Jeffrey Kutler (II) Apr 14, 2015
Today’s cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology are but early inklings of a coming wave of innovation.

Uneven Global Recovery, Complex Underlying Currents
IMF Survey Apr 14, 2015
Global growth prospects are uneven across major economies, says the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). In advanced economies, growth is projected to strengthen in 2015 relative to 2014, but in emerging market and developing economies it is expected to be weaker.

Can We Blame the Fed for Asset Bubbles?
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Apr 14, 2015
Two bubbles in a row is troublesome. If we’re indeed in a third, that starts looking more like a trend -- and not a good one.

Hong Kong's Peg to Instability
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 14, 2015
Hong Kong's peg to the U.S. dollar has outlived its usefulness.

The Challenge of Russia’s Decline
Joseph S. Nye (Project Syndicate) Apr 14, 2015
Russia is in long-term decline, but it still poses a very real threat to the international order in Europe and beyond. Indeed, Russia’s malaise may make it even more dangerous, given the tendency of declining states to become less risk-averse.

Europe’s Poisoned Chalice of Growth
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Apr 14, 2015
After a double-dip recession and an extended period of stagnation, the eurozone is finally seeing green shoots of recovery, with the European Commission forecasting 1.3% growth this year. But, though that is not bad by European standards, it could be very bad for European reform.

The Harm of Regulatory Disharmony
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Apr 14, 2015
Among the institutions regulating global financial markets, the Financial Markets Law Committee is not very prominent. But its mission – to identify and propose solutions to issues of legal uncertainty in financial markets that might create risks in the future – has never been more important.

Russia's Turbulence Could Drive Sustainable Development
Anastasia Okorochkova (YaleGlobal) Apr 14, 2015
Hard times combined with falling oil prices could encourage Russia to lead in sustainability.

What’s Up With You?
Thomas L. Friedman (NYT) Apr 15, 2015
The United States and China are now totally intertwined.

Pro-Europeans need to woo ‘anxious middle’
Hugo Dixon (FT) Apr 15, 2015
Migrants bring benefits but it is not enough to celebrate that.

Interview: Li on China’s challenges
Lionel Barber, David Pilling and Jamil Anderlini (FT) Apr 15, 2015
The premier says Beijing is willing to ‘work with others’ to boost the global economy.

Now Is the Time! Use Fiscal Policy to Support Sustainable Growth
IMF Survey Apr 15, 2015
In the global context of a moderate and uneven economic recovery, sound management of public finances can secure elusive growth and jobs.

Financial Risks Rise, Rotate
IMF Survey Apr 15, 2015
Global financial stability risks have risen since October 2014, and have rotated to parts of the financial system where they are harder to assess and harder to address, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest Global Financial Stability Report.

Diversity among Advanced Economies in Rebounding from Crisis
Paolo Mauro and Jan Zilinsky (PIIE) Apr 15, 2015
Newly released projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook highlight the diversity of experiences among advanced economies in rebounding from the crisis. Although most economies (including all economies shown in this blog post) are projected to return to positive growth this year and the next, differences in GDP levels and growth rates since the beginning of the crisis far exceed differences in economic performance observed prior to the crisis.

China at the Crossroads
Stephan S. Roach (Globalist) Apr 15, 2015
By continuing its economic rebalancing, China could increase the scale of its economy by trillions of dollars.

Understanding Draghi
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2015
The euro zone has traveled the first third of the quantitative easing journey. The remaining two-thirds will be much harder.

Greece Is Running Out of Money, and Time
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2015
The endgame for the Greek drama seems just a little more than a week away.

Fighting the Bubble in Bubbles
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2015
Yes, investment bubbles happen, but not nearly as often as people say they do.

The Case Against Secular Stagnation
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2015
The evidence that the U.S. economy suffers from secular stagnation is weak.

Why China's Numbers Are Worse Than They Seem
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2015
There's a good chance additional stimulus won't help this time.

IMF Preaches to the Choir
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2015
Don’t expect this week’s meetings to produce consequential policy breakthroughs. Instead, we are likely to get more of the same -- interesting conversation and broad expressions of concern, with few concrete follow-up actions that would make the global economy materially better.

How to Reform the IMF Now
Paulo Nogueira Batista and HEctor R. Torres (Project Syndicate) Apr 15, 2015
Reforms that would double the IMF's resources and reorganize its governing structure in favor of developing countries have been held up in the US Congress for more than four years. The best way forward would be to decouple the part of the reforms that requires ratification by the US Congress from the rest of the package.

Sustainable Energy Now
Anita George (Project Syndicate) Apr 15, 2015
Renewable energy from the wind and sun is becoming competitive with fossil-fuel-based power generation, and oil prices are hitting lows not seen for years. These developments put us at the edge of a global energy transformation – as long as we get the next steps right.

A New Start for the Eurozone: Dealing with Debt
Giancarlo Corsetti, Lars P Feld, Philip R. Lane, Lucrezia Reichlin, Hélène Rey, Dimitri Vayanos and Beatrice Weder di Mauro (VoxEU) Apr 15, 2015
This report, the first in the Monitoring the Eurozone series, addresses the measures Eurozone countries need to take to guard against returning financial instability that could threaten a sustainable recovery. The authors consider stock operations, lending structures and regulatory changes in protecting sovereign debt on a national and Europe-wide level.

Economic integration in Europe: Insights from a new index
Ettore Dorrucci, Demosthenes Ioannou, Francesco Paolo Mongelli and Alessio Terzi (VoxEU) Apr 15, 2015
Despite a significant progress over the past decades, European integration still needs improvement in some areas. This column presents a long-term narrative of European integration by using a recently published European index of regional institutional integration. The index maps developments in European integration from 1958 to early 2015 on the basis of a new monthly dataset. The evidence shows that successful integration could be achieved with reforms that are inclusive, widely explained, understood, and accepted.

US and China: rivals with common cause
Kevin Rudd (FT) Apr 16, 2015
The future of the relationship is not predetermined but for the leaders to shape.

A ‘flash crash’ or two gives needed jolt
Ralph Atkins (FT) Apr 16, 2015
Too much volatility is harmful but too little and behaviour will not change.

World Bank: Stress test
Shawn Donnan (FT) Apr 16, 2015
Facing increasing competition and beset by criticism, what next for the institution?

State Capitalism by Stealth, the New 21st Century Economic Reality
Douglas A. Rediker (PIIE/FT) Apr 16, 2015
Geoeconomics was defined by its intellectual godfather, Edward Luttwak, as a contest defined by the grammar of commerce but the logic of war. Today, one of the most pernicious tools in this global contest is the evolving role of government in a market economy.

A Lift for Free Trade
WSJ Apr 16, 2015
The Hatch-Wyden compromise deserves Congress’s approval.

Lift Tomorrow’s Growth For Better Economic Future—Lagarde
IMF Survey Apr 16, 2015
Current global growth is not enough to cut high unemployment, bolster middle-class incomes, and cut poverty, IMF chief Christine Lagarde tells a Washington news conference. She calls for lifting today’s growth, lifting tomorrow’s growth, and working together.

Can Iceland Save the World?
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Apr 16, 2015
Iceland's way to solve the current(!) global financial crisis.

Expect Further Divergence in Emerging Market Economies
Michael A. Gomez and Lupin Rahman (PIMCO) Apr 16, 2015
Our baseline for Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico overall is growth of 1.5%-2.5% year-over-year through first-quarter 2016, with negative output gaps for Brazil and Russia in particular. Our baseline is that EM as a whole is likely to be able to weather a gradual and predictable Fed exit, but that there may be volatility and accidents along the way. We are focusing on select opportunities across countries, credits and markets.

European Union Divided Over Greek Bailout
Chris Miller (YaleGlobal) Apr 16, 2015
Stalemate on Greece: Fearing voters’ wrath, European leaders lack courage for a deal on austerity and bailouts

The Creative State
Mariana Mazzucato (Project Syndicate) Apr 16, 2015
The conventional view in mainstream economics is that governments have little capacity to spark innovation.The truth is that in some of the world's most famous technological hubs, including Silicon Valley and Israel, the state has played a critical role in creating and shaping markets for new products.

Some unintended consequences of QE
Keith Wade (Pieria) Apr 16, 2015
Although the well-trailed announcement by the European Central Bank of a QE programme has been greeted with enthusiasm we would caution that investors should be careful what they wish for.

Investors Are Worried About Turkey’s Economic Outlook
Georgina Hurst (II) Apr 16, 2015
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s power play is slowing the country’s momentum towards economic reform.

At Global Economic Gathering, U.S. Primacy Is Seen as Ebbing
Jonathan Weisman (NYT) Apr 17, 2015
Economists and political leaders see an American government so bitterly divided that it is on the verge of deserting the global economic stage it has commanded since the end of World War II.

Russia's Bond: It's Official! (... and Private ... and Anything Else It Wants to Be ...)
Anna Gelpern (PIIE) Apr 17, 2015
Ukraine's bond restructuring talks are in high gear, and, as ever, Russia is the trouble du jour. Not only is it threatening to hold out in the bond deal and take Ukraine to arbitration, Russia also seems poised to block International Monetary Fund (IMF) disbursements to Ukraine using an arcane Fund policy on "lending into arrears." My hunch is that this last risk is overblown, and in any event should not drive IMF policy or Ukraine's restructuring strategy.

Ukraine's Bond Restructuring: Surgery, Conspiracy, and Campaign
Anna Gelpern (PIIE) Apr 17, 2015
Debt restructuring is the second largest source of outside financing for Ukraine's new International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. The Fund itself brings $17.5 billion over four years; $9.6 billion comes from governments and other multilaterals (including Europe, the United States, and most recently, China), leaving $15.3 billion for the "debt operation." The jargon makes debt restructuring sound like a mix of surgery, conspiracy, and military campaign, which together pretty much sum up Ukraine's challenge.

The Elusive Pursuit of Inflation
Christopher Coakley (IMF Survey) Apr 17, 2015
Having worked for years to tame inflation, the world’s central banks are now facing an increasing challenge to reawaken it.

Asia May Face Slower Future Growth, say Top Economists
IMF Survey Apr 17, 2015
After a period of rapid growth, Asia should expect much slower economic expansion in the future as the region is likely to revert to levels of average growth, a former U.S. Treasury Secretary has told an audience at the IMF-World Bank Meetings.

Africa’s Short-term Priority: Tackle Shock of Lower Oil Prices
IMF Survey Apr 17, 2015
Overall outlook favorable, but oil price drop trims oil exporters’ growth prospects. Decline in oil prices offers unique change to reform energy subsidies. More economic diversification can tap strong opportunities for long-term growth.

Greece: Still Shying Away from the Hard Decisions
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Apr 17, 2015
Unless Mr. Tsipras bites the bullet on tough reforms, Grexit will certainly become a reality.

Asia's Tough-Love Agenda for IMF
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2015
Emerging economies would do a lot differently if they were in charge of the IMF and World Bank.

Russia's Economy Steps Back from the Brink
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2015
The country has taken a big hit, but new data offer some hopeful signs.

Global Economy Loses Its (Ball) Bearings
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2015
Bleak sales of ball bearings and other basics suggest the global economy is far more fragile than most observers have acknowledged.

Curse of the IMF Chiefs
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2015
The detention of former IMF head Rodrigo Rato is another blow to the fund's already dismal reputation, which is weakening the institution.

Can Trade Agreements Stop Currency Manipulation?
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Apr 17, 2015
It is impossible to deny that trade and exchange rates are closely linked. But trade negotiations are not the right forum for discussing the causes and consequences of current-account imbalances and reaching agreements on macroeconomic-policy coordination; that is what the IMF and the G-20 are for.

The Debt Dilemma
Adair Turner and Susan Lund (Project Syndicate) Apr 17, 2015
The victory of the anti-austerity Syriza party in Greece’s February election has placed debt back at the center of debates about economic growth and stability. But Greece is hardly the only country that is struggling to repay its existing debt, much less dampen borrowing – and the risks are mounting.

What the West Owes Ukraine
Anders Åslund (Project Syndicate) Apr 17, 2015
Ukraine may not be grabbing as many headlines now as it did a year ago, but the crisis there is far from over. Ultimately, what Ukraine needs is to escape the old Soviet order – and, for that, it needs significantly more Western help than it is getting.

Greece's economic nightmare is here
Theodore Pelagidis (Brookings) Apr 17, 2015
As the honeymoon for Greece’s new government comes to an end, Theodore Pelagidis looks at two disheartening scenarios that might play out over the next few weeks.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is great for elites. Is it good for anyone else?
Timothy B. Lee (Vox) Apr 17, 2015
If, as critics contend, USTR's agenda is heavily tilted toward the interests of a few well-connected interest groups, then the TPP may not be good for America at all.

Three waves of convergence. Can Eurozone countries start growing together again?
Mar 17, 2015
An oft expressed view is that the Eurozone is a straitjacket on periphery members and income convergence has slowed, halted or reversed. This column argues that EZ convergence never stopped. What changed was the type of convergence. Today’s convergence is neither nominal nor real, it is structural. Structural convergence presents a basis for renewed real convergence. However, for this to happen, the right institutions and policies need to be in place at both European and national levels.

A framework for banking structural reform
Xavier Vives (VoxEU) Mar 17, 2015
The 2007–08 crisis revealed regulatory failures that had allowed the shadow banking system and systemic risk to grow unchecked. This column evaluates recent proposals to reform the banking industry. Although appropriate pricing of risk should make activity restrictions redundant, there may nevertheless be complementarities between these two approaches. Ring-fencing may make banking groups more easily resolvable and therefore lower the cost of imposing market discipline.

Transparency and the effectiveness of monetary policy
Angus Armstrong, Francesco Caselli, Jagjit Chadha and Wouter den Haan (VoxEU) Mar 17, 2015
Following the Warsh Review, the Bank of England plans to release its policy decisions, ‘enhanced’ meeting minutes and (once a quarter) the Inflation Report all at the same time. This column, which reports the views of the leading UK-based macroeconomists, reveals substantial support for the idea of simultaneously providing the different Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) documents. In order to make this possible, the Bank plans to change the structure of its MPC meetings. When the proposed change in the structure is taken into account, the panel is split on the desirability of the Bank's plans.

Impact of structural reforms in the Eurozone: Firm-level data
Eric Bartelsman, Filippo di Mauro and Ettore Dorrucci (VoxEU) Mar 17, 2015
The shallow growth response to Eurozone rebalancing policies could point towards structural impediments. To uncover such impediments and design effective structural reforms, it is necessary to focus on the path from micro behaviour to macro outcomes. This column argues that firm-level data from the CompNet database can shed light on the impacts of structural reforms.

Liquidity in markets: Frozen
Economist Apr 18, 2015
Regulators have made banking safer. But has that made markets riskier?

Reform in China: China's quiet revolution
Economist Apr 18, 2015
The slowing economy commands headlines, but the more important story in China is an acceleration of reforms

Inflation, Central Banks, and Business Cycles
Jonathan Newman (Mises Daily) Apr 18, 2015
The word “inflation” means different things to different people.

Financing For Development: The Way Forward
IMF Survey Apr 18, 2015
As the United Nations prepares to adopt its new Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) later this year, IMF Deputy Managing Director Min Zhu, at the Spring Meetings debate, addressed concerns that the goals may be too ambitious.

Explaining the dearth of private investment
Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Daniel Leigh, Seok Gil Park and Hui Tong (VoxEU) Apr 18, 2015
Business investment in advanced economies contracted sharply during the global crisis and has recovered little since. This column argues that the main factor holding back investment is overall economomic weakness. In some countries other contributing factors include financial constraints and policy uncertainty. Fixing the investment dearth will require fixing the general weakness in economic activity.

Greek default necessary but Grexit is not
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Apr 19, 2015
Defaulting on the IMF and ECB is the only route to short-term relief but nobody has ever done it.

‘Hubris’, by Meghnad Desai
Ferdinando Giugliano (FT) Apr 19, 2015
The author’s explanation of the great recession is a complex blend of unorthodox economic doctrines.

Investors must look beyond US assets
Russ Koesterich (FT) Apr 19, 2015
Strategy of 60/40 US stocks/bonds has outperformed but will not work so well in future.

Vietnam: Profitable return
Michael Peel (FT) Apr 19, 2015
Those displaced by the war are now being encouraged to play a prominent role in the emerging economy.

China's Welcome Bridge to Pakistan
Bloomberg View Apr 19, 2015
Increased cooperation between China and Pakistan is nothing for the U.S. to worry about.

Charting Greece's Frightening Future
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Apr 19, 2015
Greece and its creditors have undone years of confidence-building in a matter of months.

The Problem With Secular Stagnation
Arvind Subramanian (Project Syndicate) Apr 19, 2015
In a recent exchange between Ben Bernanke and Larry Summers on the plausibility of secular stagnation, both agreed on the need for a global perspective. But from that perspective, the hypothesis of secular stagnation prior to the 2008 financial crisis is at odds with a central fact: global growth averaged more than 4%.

How immigrants and job mobility help low-skilled workers
Mette Foged and Giovanni Peri (VoxEU) Apr 19, 2015
The inflow of low-skilled migrants may encourage natives to upgrade their skills, taking advantage of immigrant-native complementarity. This column uses exogenous dispersion of refugees in Denmark to investigate this issue. The findings confirm that for low-skilled native workers, the presence of refugee-country immigrants spurred mobility and increased specialisation into complex jobs.

China's Road Rules
Jacob Stokes (FA) Apr 19, 2015
Beijing looks west toward Eurasian integration.

Bank regulators fail to spot hidden dangers
Robert Lenzner (FT) Apr 20, 2015
Seven years after the crash the authorities still know next to nothing.

Greece’s gloomy future is Ireland’s past
Peter Cunningham (FT) Apr 20, 2015
The Celtic Tiger has become a model to be followed by other bailout countries.

Germany’s life assurers: the next crisis?
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Apr 20, 2015
Guaranteed rates and mismatched liabilities pose risk to system.

China begins to address its debt problem
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 20, 2015
Borrowers and lenders likely to get help from central bank rate cuts.

A Veteran of the Financial Crisis Tells China to Be Wary
Andrew Ross Sorkin (NYT) Apr 20, 2015
Henry M. Paulson, Treasury secretary during the 2008 financial crisis, warns China in a new book that it will undoubtedly have to “face a reckoning.”

Greece: Help from Putin?
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Apr 20, 2015
How realistic are Greek announcements about a big energy deal with Russia?

Is Greece Stumbling to the Euro Exit?
Tom Buerkle (II) Apr 20, 2015
Bad blood, big debts and looming deadlines have EU officials talking more openly about Grexit, and hoping to limit the contagion.

Can Britain Surpass Germany Economically?
Robert Bischof (Globalist) Apr 20, 2015
To get ahead, the UK should adapt German strategies.

Let Greece Stumble Out of the Euro
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 20, 2015
It may be time for Greece, which cheated its way past the velvet rope into the euro club, to quit the common currency.

11 Acts Toward a Greek Tragedy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 20, 2015
A ghastly set of circumstances is coming together to form an inevitable reality -- that of Greece being ejected from the euro zone, which wouldn't be caused by a conscious decisions, but would be the result of a huge accident.

Stock-Trading Monopolies Weren't So Bad
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Apr 20, 2015
Competition among exchanges and dark pools has gone too far for some big investors.

Asia's Growing China Problem
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 20, 2015
China is sputtering in ways that should worry officials from Seoul to Jakarta.

Blogger Bernanke's Abundance of Caution
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg View) Apr 20, 2015
Ben Bernanke is being overly cautious when he worries that a nominal-spending target for the Fed might not be compatible with the central bank's mandates to keep inflation and unemployment low.

A Global Marshall Plan
Erik S. Reinert and Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Project Syndicate) Apr 20, 2015
Despite ongoing efforts to catalyze global development cooperation, there have been significant obstacles to progress in recent years. Fortunately, with major international meetings set for the second half of 2015, world leaders have an important opportunity to overcome them.

High Debt and Low Oil Prices Threaten Canada’s Globalized Economy
Vikram Mansharamani (YaleGlobal) Apr 20, 2015
Canadians are caught in a new subprime-style property crisis and collapsing crude oil prices.

The role of trade credit financing in international trade
Katharina Eck, Martina Engemann and Monika Schnitzer (VoxEU) Apr 20, 2015
Credits extended bilaterally between firms, so called trade credits, are particularly expensive yet many firms use it, especially for international transactions. This column argues that such cash-in-advance financing serves as a credible signal of quality. Data from a unique survey of German firms show that it fosters export participation in particular for firms that tend to have the greatest difficulties in entering foreign markets.

Mythology that blocks progress in Greece
Martin Wolf (FT) Apr 21, 2015
It will not end well if those involved cling to false beliefs.

China takes steps to address debt problem
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 21, 2015
Borrowers and lenders likely to get help from central bank rate cuts.

Study Tracks Accelerated Pace and Growing Pains of China’s Urbanization
Patrick Boehler (NYT) Apr 21, 2015
The report looks at several facets of a sweeping government-led effort to transform the country from a once-predominantly rural economy to a land of modern city dwellers.

The Oil Export Ban: A Relic of the 1970s
John Hess (WSJ) Apr 21, 2015
Lifting it would help keep rigs running and workers working—and it would even lower gas prices at the pump.

China's yuan: Asia's future anchor currency?
Chow Hwee Kwan (ST) Apr 21, 2015
The yuan is becoming more widely used in pricing and settling intra-regional trade and investment. Asian currencies' movements are likely to shift more in tandem with the yuan, leading to it becoming one of Asia's lead currencies.

Eurozone: The Battle Over What Solidarity Means
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Apr 21, 2015
Are two divergent economic cultures clashing inside the Eurozone?

The Bot Bubble
Doug Bock Clark (TNR) Apr 21, 2015
How click farms have inflated social media currency.

Trade agreements are not the right place to combat currency manipulation
Kemal Dervis (Brookings) Apr 21, 2015
Including monetary and fiscal policies into mega-regional trade agreements would complicate already difficult negotiations.

Euro or Drachma, Greece Must Finally Choose
Bloomberg View Apr 21, 2015
Greece is reaching the end of the road: If it wants to stay in the euro it must decide, in a clearly worded referendum.

Defaults Are Just What China Needs
Bloomberg View Apr 21, 2015
Defaults this week by a major Chinese property developer and a state-owned company provide a dose of market realism that China sorely needs.

The IMF's big Greek mistake
Ashoka Mody (Bloomberg View) Apr 21, 2015
The IMF should recognize its responsibility for the country's predicament and forgive much of the debt.

China Will Keep Growing Because It Has to
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Apr 21, 2015
Delivering steady economic growth is the government's key source of legitimacy.

China Should Let a Hundred Defaults Bloom
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 21, 2015
Xi Jinping must decide whether he is more interested in stoking short-term growth, or curbing the excesses that imperil the China's future.

Basel’s countercyclical capital buffer: The third nation issue
Natalia Tente (VoxEU) Apr 21, 2015
The Basel III countercyclical capital buffer framework obliges nations to set appropriate capital buffer rates for their bank’s credit exposure at home and in third countries. This column proposes criteria for selecting these third countries. The idea is to focus only on the third-country exposures that, firstly, could jeopardise stability of the domestic banking sector and, secondly, can be actually addressed by means of the policy. Variables and thresholds to operationalise this idea are proposed.

The 'Grexit' Issue and the Problem of Free Trade
George Friedman (Stratfor) Apr 21, 2015
The Greek crisis is moving toward a climax. The issue is actually quite simple. The Greek government owes a great deal of money to European institutions and the International Monetary Fund. It has accumulated this debt over time, but it has become increasingly difficult for Greece to meet its payments. If Greece doesn't meet these payments, the IMF and European institutions have said that they will not extend any more loans to Greece. Greece must make a calculation. If it pays the loans on time and receives additional funding, will it be better off than not paying the loans and being cut off from more?

Europe needs Deutsche Bank as its champion
John Gapper (FT) Apr 22, 2015
Nationality in finance is not vital — the City thrived by not being nationalistic or protectionist.

Financial regulation meets a cul-de-sac
John Plender (FT) Apr 22, 2015
The notion of a single super-trader able to disrupt markets has not been high on authorities’ agenda.

Prepare for a rough ride in EM bonds
Alberto Gallo (FT) Apr 22, 2015
Good times are ending for corporate borrowers in emerging markets Read more >>

China needs to export ideas to compete
Michael Schuman (FT) Apr 22, 2015
You cannot take on Apple in the US by pretending you are Apple.

The IMF's Harmful Debt Restructuring Proposal
Angel Ubide (PIIE) Apr 22, 2015
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive board will soon decide how far to go in imposing costs on creditors when a country requests large scale IMF assistance. Early indications based on current staff proposals are that its decision will weaken the international financial architecture and the structure of global capital markets.

Why should we be worried about unwinding QE?
Gregor Logan (Pieria) Apr 22, 2015
The combination of very high debt, very low interest rates and very large central bank balance sheets means governments would struggle to respond to another crisis.

South Koreans Bicker Over Their Tanking Economy
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 22, 2015
A blame game won't fix the country's household debt bubble.

Why Is Spoofing Bad?
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Apr 22, 2015
Yesterday Navinder Singh Sarao was accused of spoofing S&P 500 E-mini futures in a way that might have contributed to the May 2010 flash crash.

Inequality Is a Bipartisan Issue
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 22, 2015
The question of inequality is important not just on its own merits, but because of its connections to economics, politics, demographics, race, gender and geopolitical extremism.

Europe's Collision Course With Greece
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Apr 22, 2015
Europe's stubborn stand on Greek debt may become its biggest miscalculation since the creation of the euro.

Europe’s Roadblocks to Long-Term Investment
Angelien Kemna (Project Syndicate) Apr 22, 2015
The enormous number of new rules put in place in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis are contributing to the lack of liquidity in Europe’s capital markets. Policymakers would be wise to reshape the broader regulatory environment with an eye toward facilitating long-term investment.

Debating the Confidence Fairy
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Apr 22, 2015
Confidence affects government decision-making, but it does not affect the results of decisions. Except in extreme cases, it cannot cause a bad policy to have good results, and a lack of it cannot cause a good policy to have bad results, any more than believing that humans can fly can offset the effect of gravity.

Big Asset Shift of Japan’s GPIF Is Secret Weapon of Abenomics
James Shinn (II) Apr 22, 2015
The world’s largest pension fund, led by Takahiro Mitani, is moving massive amounts of money from Japanese bonds into domestic and foreign stocks. Can the shift revitalize the economy?

China's New Investment Bank: A Premature Prophecy
Mark Fleming-Williams (Stratfor) Apr 22, 2015
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers wrote on April 5 that this month may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system. His comments refer to the circumstances surrounding China's launch of a new venture, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Wary of China's growing ambitions and influence, the United States had advised its allies not to join the institution, but many signed up anyway. The debacle was undoubtedly embarrassing for Washington, but even so, Summers' prophecy is a bit premature at this stage.

Secular Stagnation in the US
Robert E. Hall (VoxEU) Apr 22, 2015
The disappointing post-Crisis performance of the US economy and even more disappointing performance of continental Europe and Japan have revived interest in the possibility of secular stagnation. This column argues that a consensus is forming that inadequate demand will no longer be a factor in whatever US stagnation occurs in coming years. In Japan and Europe, on the other hand, the case for boosting demand is strong and inadequate demand is almost surely a main cause of the stagnation.

Rare events, financial crises, and the cross-section of asset returns
Francesco Bianchi (VoxEU) Apr 22, 2015
During the Great Recession, the possibility that the US might enter a second Great Depression was a real concern. This column argues that until early 2009, financial markets behaved in a manner consistent with the early years of the Great Depression. The large stock-market fall saw growth stocks outperforming value stocks. This pattern ended March 2009, arguably in light of robust policy interventions. These dynamics suggest that poor performance of growth stocks during regular times may be compensated by superior performance in crises.

Debt supercycle, not secular stagnation
Kenneth Rogoff (VoxEU) Apr 22, 2015
Weak, post-Crisis growth has been blamed on secular stagnation. This column argues that the ‘financial crisis/debt supercycle’ view provides a more accurate and useful framework for understanding what has transpired and what is likely to come next. The difference matters. Unlike secular stagnation, a debt supercycle is not forever. After deleveraging and borrowing headwinds subside, expected growth trends might prove higher than simple extrapolations of recent performance might suggest.

US fears European sequel to Lehman
Gillian Tett (FT) Apr 23, 2015
Policy makers worry eurozone officials are too optimistic about dealing with a potential Grexit.

Quixotic quest for a greener future
Julian Critchlow (FT) Apr 23, 2015
Even an ardent enthusiast will struggle to make the technology work.

The internet cannot be without laws
Rob Wainwright (FT) Apr 23, 2015
The police are sometimes demonised as agents of digital repression.

Greek contagion still on global risk list
Ralph Atkins (FT) Apr 23, 2015
Reduced liquidity and crowded trades mean danger remains.

Niche Trade in Lamb Pelts Proves Vital to Ailing Afghan Economy
Joseph Golstein (NYT) Apr 23, 2015
Last year, Finland imported nearly a half-million Afghan lamb pelts, auctioning them off to be turned into luxurious women’s coats, among other items.

This High-Speed Trader Says Thanks, Regulators
Ari Rubinstein (WSJ) Apr 23, 2015
More oversight will make high-frequency trading safer and more secure, increasing investor trust and participation.

US Trade Debate Kicks into High Gear as Congress Debates TPA Bill
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 14 Apr 23, 2015
The trade debate in Washington has now moved squarely into the spotlight, following the introduction of the long-awaited Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation. The proposed text already went through a "mark-up" in the Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday, passing by a 20-6 majority.

IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings Pledge "Further Measures" to Boost Global Growth
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 14 Apr 23, 2015
Ramping up the pace of the global recovery, reversing the economic fall-out of the Ebola crisis, and supporting ongoing international efforts at crafting a new development agenda shared centre stage during the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group from 17-19 April.

EU Commission Files Anti-Trust Charges Against Russia's Gazprom
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 14 Apr 23, 2015
Following a two-year investigation, the European Commission's competition branch filed charges on Wednesday against Russia's biggest energy company Gazprom, citing claims of unfair practices in Central and Eastern Europe.

Africa and commodity prices: No longer the kiss of death
Economist Apr 23, 2015
Things are a lot better than they used to be.

Brazil's Adjustment: It's (not) Mostly Fiscal
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Apr 23, 2015
Much has been said recently about the urgent need for fiscal adjustment in Brazil. Finance Minister Joaquim Levy conveyed this message during his trip to Washington in April, and President Dilma Rousseff began her second term in office in January by moving toward the removal of key price distortions that have plagued the economy for four years.

Is Economic Openness an "Enemy of the People"?
Monica de Bolle (Folha de São Paulo/PIIE) Apr 23, 2015
"Entreguismo," loosely translated from the Portuguese as "handing over," is an old term used by those who argue that openness to trade and investment is akin to giving up the pursuit of domestic interests in favor of those of large foreign companies. The accompanying rationale is that these companies hurt the economy by "stealing jobs" and flooding domestic markets with cheap foreign goods, thus driving out domestic firms.

Modi's Moment of Truth
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Apr 23, 2015
A rejuvenated opposition and bad monsoon could imperil his growth agenda.

Deutsche Bank Was Emphatic About Manipulating Libor
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Apr 23, 2015
DON'T FORGET TO MANIPULATE LIBOR OLD BEAN.

Wonks Abandon an Economic Dream
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 23, 2015
Economics has a long way to go before it can predict busts.

The Right Health Investments
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Apr 23, 2015
As devastating as last year's Ebola outbreak has been, its death toll of less than 20,000 people is dwarfed by that of preventable diseases like AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, which together caused more than three million deaths in 2013. Addressing these diseases, it turns out, would be an extraordinarily good investment.

Asian Games Are Not Zero-Sum
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Apr 23, 2015
However tempting it may be to focus on global economic rankings, they are the wrong way to think about today's major global governance issues. Unfortunately, that is now how current issues are being framed.

A New Deal for Greece
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Apr 23, 2015
Though three months of negotiations between the Greek government and its European and international partners have brought about much convergence, they have not yet produced an agreement. What steps are needed to produce a viable, mutually acceptable reform agenda?

Ireland’s Lessons for Greece
Michael Heise (Project Syndicate) Apr 23, 2015
While no one disputes that things have gone wrong in Greece, the Syriza-led Greek government's argument that fiscal consolidation necessarily leads to never-ending recession – which forms the core of its case for a new deal from its creditors – is not borne out by the facts. Just look at Ireland.

Global Divergence, the Federal Reserve and the Impact on U.S. Insurers
David L. Braun and Scott A. Millimet (PIMCO) Apr 23, 2015
Insurers continue to look for yield by taking a little more credit risk rather than extending duration. We prefer to be underweight U.S. duration because we think rates are fully valued. We are comfortable being overweight credit - select credit - based on the fundamental story of the U.S. showing signs of a self-sustaining recovery.

The New Global Marketplace of Political Change
Thomas Carothers, Oren Samet-Marram (CEIP) Apr 23, 2015
Western democratic powers are no longer the dominant external shapers of political transitions around the world.

Q. and A.: Henry Paulson on ‘Dealing With China’
Jane Perlez (NYT) Apr 24, 2015
The former Treasury secretary talks about his new book, “Dealing With China,” and why the United States-China relationship matters.

Economists Actually Agree on This: The Wisdom of Free Trade
N. Gregory Mankiw (NYT) Apr 24, 2015
If Congress were to take an exam in Economics 101, would it pass? We are about to find out.

IMF Unveils New Way of Assessing Country Reserves
IMF Survey Apr 24, 2015
The IMF develops a new framework for determining the appropriate level of international reserves held by its member countries, emphasizing the need to take account of the specific needs of different types of economies. In addition to important benefits, reserves also have costs.

The great unraveling of globalization
Jeffrey Rothfeder (WP) Apr 24, 2015
U.S. businesses rethink a strategy that promised to lift companies and consumers the world over.

Greek Contagion Is Not a Something, Not a Nothing
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2015
Greek contagion is like Schrodinger's cat: both alive and dead until we open the box.

Ex-Goldman Guys Think Citi Was a Little Abrupt With FX Trades
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2015
Banks can dump defaulting customers, but probably shouldn't enjoy it.

How a Bubble Steals From the Future
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2015
It can take years to recover from the frenzy.

Good-Government Authoritarianism?
Alfred Stepan and Richa Maheshwari (Project Syndicate) Apr 24, 2015
Countries like Singapore are often held up as proof that authoritarianism succeeds in fighting corruption. But, aside from this supposition’s profoundly anti-democratic implications, it also happens to be empirically false.

Democracy Versus Growth?
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Apr 24, 2015
Europe’s ongoing malaise has reignited the old debate over which form of government produces better economic performance. Are authoritarian regimes, with their ability to ram through unpopular choices, more effective at generating growth, or does liberal democracy, with its built in checks and balances, yield greater prosperity?

When Women Thrive, So Will the World
Shinzo Abe (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2015
Japan can lead the way with more female executives and more engagement abroad.

Lenders’ Incentives to avoid fire sales: Evidence from the mortgage market
Giovanni Favara and Mariassunta Giannetti (VoxEU) Apr 24, 2015
During financial crises, fire sales (or forced asset sales) could further aggravate the financial fragility. However, evidence on why agents do not take actions to avoid collateral liquidation is scant. This column uses data on foreclosures and house prices from the US housing crisis to present new evidence on the issue. The authors argue that lenders with a large share of outstanding mortgages internalise the negative spillovers of liquidation. Thus, they might be more likely to renegotiate and avoid price-default spirals.

Greece: On the Gredge
Economist Apr 25, 2015
A Greek exit from the euro may soon become inevitable.

Peru: Beyond Llamas and Machu Picchu
Tim Harcourt (Globalist) Apr 25, 2015
Can Peru once again prove skeptics wrong and succeed in the world economy?

Why risk is hard to measure
Jon Danielsson & Chen Zhou (VoxEU) Apr 25, 2015
Regulators and financial institutions increasingly depend on statistical risk forecasting. This column argues that most risk modelling approaches are highly inaccurate and confidence intervals should be provided along with point estimates. Two major approaches, value-at-risk and expected shortfall are compared, and while the former is found to be superior in practice, it is also easier to be manipulated by forecasters.

US share buybacks loot the future
Edward Luce (FT) Apr 26, 2015
Corporate leaders should put long-term investment and growth ahead of quick gains.

The real threat to Europe lies in Ukraine
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Apr 26, 2015
A failed state or further annexation by Russia would dwarf fears over Grexit.

India promises a fair deal on tax
Arun Jaitley (FT) Apr 26, 2015
The government must end damaging retroactive demands as a priority.

‘Eurocrats’ command the world’s respect
Mario Monti (FT) Apr 26, 2015
Why, when the EU is so bad at so much, has it hit upon a competition policy that works?

New rules only lower bank risk in theory
Satyajit Das (FT) Apr 26, 2015
True risk of financial institutions is understated.

Central bankers as supervisors: The bandwagon effect
Donato Masciandaro and Davide Romelli (VoxEU) Apr 26, 2015
In the aftermath of the Global Crisis, many countries increased their central banks’ involvement in financial supervision. This column uses a novel dataset to argue that financial crises episodes significantly increase the probability of reforms in the financial structure. More interestingly, the authors find evidence of a ‘bandwagon effect’ by showing that politicians are more likely to undertake reforms when their peers do so.

European banks struggle to keep up
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Apr 27, 2015
Weak performance and fiscal and political uncertainty mean sector is lagging behind US.

Chile: Copper bottomed
Henny Sanderson (FT) Apr 27, 2015
Facing higher costs and lower prices, copper producers are being asked to improve their environmental record.

FDI surge for India bucks global trend
Courtney Fingar (FT) Apr 27, 2015
Largest number of projects are in manufacturing and in sales, marketing and support.

Japan’s massive trade opportunity
Paul Ryan (WP) Apr 27, 2015
Sealing the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal would give a boost to both Japan and the United States.

Freeing American Crude: Oil Export Controls Amount to a Trifecta of Bad Policy
Gary Clyde Hufbauer (WT/PIIE) Apr 27, 2015
It's rare to find a policy that combines bad economics with harmful national security overtones and, at the same time, violates US obligations to the world trading system. But US restrictions on crude oil exports are just that rare bird.

The future of development is ageing
Ken Bluestone (OECD Insight) Apr 27, 2015
Two themes that resonate strongly across the OECD are the need to achieve sustainable development and the growing significance of population ageing. It is rare, however, that these two agendas are brought together to consider the importance of ageing for developing countries.

Germany = Geoeconomics, US = Geopolitics
Stephen F. Szabo (Globalist) Apr 27, 2015
Mercury or Mars? What separates Germany and the United States.

3 Tough Choices for ECB on Greece
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 27, 2015
Will the central bank pull the plug?

Fed Triggers Bank Flight From Emerging Markets
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Apr 27, 2015
Will the Fed's moves have repercussions for emerging markets? To some extent, it's already happening.

Why Is a Hated Man Speaking for Greece?
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 27, 2015
Yanis Varoufakis shouldn't be negotiating for Greece.

Investors Lose Faith in Turkey
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Apr 27, 2015
Lira, stocks and bonds are all suffering.

The AIIB and Global Governance
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Apr 27, 2015
Despite official American and Japanese opposition, 57 countries have opted to be among the founding members of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Regardless of what naysayers believe, this remarkable turn of events can only benefit global economic governance.

The Narrative Roots of Public Policy
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Apr 27, 2015
At the recent Summit of the Americas in Panama, Cuban President Raúl Castro chose to break with the agreed protocol. Instead of speaking for eight minutes, he took six times longer to present a potted political history of his country. There was good reason for him to do so.

Are the Good Times Over?
Michael J. Boskin (Project Syndicate) Apr 27, 2015
When a boom or bust lasts for a long time, it begins to seem like it will continue indefinitely. Six years after the Great Recession, many wonder whether insufficient investment and/or waning gains from technological innovation have pushed the global economy into a “new normal” of lower growth and slow, if any, gains in living standards.

Japan's Economy Needs Shock Therapy
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 27, 2015
A bold economic experiment hasn't been bold enough.

From Rapid Recovery to Slowdown: Why Recent Economic Growth in Latin America Has Been Slow
José De Gregorio (PIIE) Apr 27, 2015
Latin America's recent economic performance has been disappointing. After a very strong recovery from the Great Recession, growth has slowed considerably, and prospects for 2015 are dim.

Robots are infiltrating productivity and economic growth statistics
Scott Andes and Mark Muro (Brookings) Apr 27, 2015
Data show robots are a growing factor in economic productivity and will play a critical role in structuring the world of work, the growth of productivity, and the shape of prosperity.

The Design Economy
Design Council (Pieria) Apr 27, 2015
A series of 10 long-form think pieces on how design is transforming the economy in the twenty-first century.

The coming defaults of Greece
Charles Wyplosz (VoxEU) Apr 27, 2015
It seems that there will be no agreement between Greece and its Eurozone partners. Short of cash, the Greek government will have no choice but to suspend payment of its maturing debts. This column looks at what happens next. In brief, it will be very much up to the ECB to decide.

Pacific pact sails past a drifting TTIP
Shawn Donnan (FT) Apr 28, 2015
Attempt to reach agreement with Europe is complicated enough without the intrusion of politics.

Why Japan is vulnerable
John Plender (FT) Apr 28, 2015
Foreign inflows could trigger spike in rates which would hit its banks.

China’s rainmakers head for cover
Jennifer Hughes (FT) Apr 28, 2015
Investment banks are feeling the strain in the light of post-financial crisis regulation and costs.

The Trader as Scapegoat
Rajiv Sethi (NYT) Apr 28, 2015
Regulators should focus on high-speed strategies, not a British “spoofer.”

What Greece Faces if It Defaults
Uki Goni (NYT) Apr 28, 2015
When Argentina canceled its foreign debt, the result was ugly.

A Trade Deal With Help for U.S. Workers Baked In
William A. Galston (WSJ) Apr 29, 2015
Globalization has many benefits, but it comes at a cost to American labor that must be addressed.

A progressive’s lament about the Trans-Pacific Partnership
Katrina vanden Heuvel (WP) Apr 28, 2015
Compromise doesn't make sense if it’s a half step in the wrong direction.

Resilient Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, Despite Strong Headwinds
IMF Survey Apr 28, 2015
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should remain robust but decelerate in the wake of the decline in oil and commodity prices, the IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook says, adding that the economy of the region is set to register another year of solid performance.

Greece: Caught Between Nero and Catharsis
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Apr 28, 2015
The Syriza government has done wonders to unify the rest of the Eurozone.

China's Middle Class Can Finally Afford IPhones
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 28, 2015
The global economy will never be the same.

Bankers Shouldn't Run Central Banks
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 28, 2015
Business leaders should help set interest rates.

China’s Slowing New Normal
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Apr 28, 2015
While some observers agree that China can sustain 6-7% growth for the next decade or so, provided that the government implements a comprehensive set of reforms in a timely manner, others expect its growth to continue to trend downward. Who is right will depend on China’s success in boosting household income and consumption.

Planetary Boundaries and Human Prosperity
Johan Rockström and Kate Raworth (Project Syndicate) Apr 28, 2015
Ending poverty has become a realistic goal for the first time in human history, but we will be able to do so only if we simultaneously protect the earth’s nine most critical systems. And those systems are coming under unprecedented pressure – from us.

America’s Risky Recovery
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Apr 28, 2015
The US economy is approaching full employment and may already be there. But America’s favorable employment trend is accompanied by a substantial increase in financial-sector risks, owing to the excessively easy monetary policy that was used to achieve the current economic recovery.

The Old New Financial Risk
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Apr 28, 2015
The main financial risk facing the United States today looks very similar to what caused so much trouble in 2007-08: big banks with too much debt and too little equity capital on their balance sheets. We already saw this movie, and it ended badly; next time could be a real horror show.

Prelude to a Japanese Revival
John Minnich (Stratfor) Apr 28, 2015
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has arrived in Washington, the third stop on his maiden voyage to the United States since assuming office in 2012. Over the next two days, he will hold a summit with U.S. President Barack Obama on U.S.-Japanese defense and trade cooperation, attend a state dinner in his honor and address a joint session of the U.S. Congress. In his speech before Congress, Abe will reaffirm Japan's commitment to promoting peace and security in East Asia and extol the virtues of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12-country free trade agreement that spans the Pacific Ocean Basin and pointedly excludes China.

Three Reasons the Dollar Should Stay Strong
Scott A. Mather (PIMCO/Barron's) Apr 28, 2015
After a decade of weakness, the U.S. dollar has appreciated strongly over the past couple of years, with a particularly strong surge in the first three months of 2015.

Commodities: Over 100 years of booms and busts
Andrew Powell (VoxEU) Apr 28, 2015
Commodity prices are very persistent. A boom is always followed by a bust, and after a slump, a boom comes along. This column reviews some basic aspects of commodity theory and their role in the last boom. Finally, it presents arguments stating that lower commodity prices are here to stay for a while. We may have to wait many years for the next boom to come along.

Measuring public panic in the Great Financial Crisis
Jonathan Ashworth and Charles A.E. Goodhart (VoxEU) Apr 28, 2015
When panic strikes, people tend to withdraw cash. While there were upticks in currency-to-deposit ratios in the autumn of 2008 and early 2009, they were modest and very short-lived compared to the Great Depression. This column argues that leading central banks learnt from the 1930s mistakes and acted decisively to check the panic. Key policies were the existence and upgrading of deposit insurance schemes, massive liquidity injections, and rapid cutting of interest rates. The most important were the guarantees that the biggest banks wouldn’t fail.

Conquistadors lose sense of adventure
Tobias Buck (FT) Apr 29, 2015
Spanish companies turn back from riskier South American deals.

Do not follow the herd into Chinese stocks
Alexander Friedman (FT) Apr 29, 2015
Investors should look beyond banks, telecoms and energy.

Puerto Rico on the Brink
NYT Apr 29, 2015
After years of bad policies, mismanagement, excessive debt and bad luck, the island's economy is in trouble.

Can Bitcoin Conquer Argentina?
Nathaniel Popper (NYT) Apr 29, 2015
With its volatile currency and dysfunctional banks, the country is the perfect place to experiment with a new digital currency.

The Slow-Growth Fed
WSJ Apr 29, 2015
The economy starts another year with a stall despite near-zero rates.

A Trade Deal With Help for U.S. Workers Baked In
William A. Galston (WSJ) Apr 29, 2015
Globalization has many benefits, but it comes at a cost to American labor that must be addressed.

China’s new, better ‘leap forward’
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Apr 29, 2015
“One of the defining events in modern intellectual history.”

Growth in Latin America Weakens for Fifth Year in a Row
IMF Survey Apr 29, 2015
Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to decline for a fifth consecutive year—dipping below 1 percent in 2015—although there are clear differences along North-South lines, the IMF said in its latest regional forecast.

TPP: Beware of the Japan Hype
Jean-Pierre Lehmann (Globalist) Apr 29, 2015
Just as is the case in the US, there is very strong domestic opposition to TPP in Japan.

Apple Isn't Samsung's Big Problem
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2015
Currency fluctuations are eroding profits.

Fed Signals Tightening, Loosely
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2015
Once the hikes begin, the Fed would work hard to convince the markets that the pace will be slow, hesitant and subject to course correction.

Scott Walker, Labor Market Protectionist
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2015
Immigrants can boost growth.

Americans Get Free Trade's Dark Side
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2015
The American people are intelligent and grown-up enough to hear the basic case against free trade, as well as the case in favor.

Greece Is Stuck With the Euro, and Vice Versa
Bloomberg View Apr 29, 2015
Breaking up is hard to do. So don't.

Tsipras in Dreamland
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) Apr 29, 2015
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras seems to have forgotten the Marxist tradition’s emphasis on the unity of theory and practice. If you want to negotiate a change of tack with your creditors, you are unlikely to succeed if you destroy your own credibility and rant and rave about those whose money you need to avoid default.

US and China’s frosty future
Philip Stephens (FT) Apr 30, 2015
Washington is giving up on Beijing becoming a stakeholder in the present global order.

Healthy liquidity needed to survive shocks
Gillian Tett (FT) Apr 30, 2015
If US rates suddenly rise, retail investors might flood out of bond funds.

West can learn from Japan’s lost decades
Yoichi Funabashi (FT) Apr 30, 2015
Debt, low inflation and slow growth challenge other economies too.

German bonds measure success of ECB QE
Ralph Atkins (FT) Apr 30, 2015
Big swings in 10-year Bund yields of late could have wide repercussions.

Executive pay: battle to align risks and rewards
Michael Skapinker (FT) Apr 30, 2015
Companies are being pressed to reform the complex compensation structures and high pay levels of top managers.

Oil Prices: What’s Behind the Drop? Simple Economics
Clifford Krauss (NYT) Apr 30, 2015
The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in a new downturn.

Q. and A.: Francis Fukuyama on China’s Political Development
Qitong Cao (NYT) Apr 30, 2015
The author of the widely read essay “The End of History?” which posited that Western liberal democracy may turn out to be the endpoint of political development, discusses what China’s past and present portend for its future.

A Big Data Financial Retreat
WSJ Apr 30, 2015
Finra walks back its needless and risky house of Cards.

Dismal Growth Needs the 3.5% Solution
WSJ Apr 30, 2015
The steps to spurring the economy include allowing oil exports and not taxing repatriated overseas profits.

US, Japan Leaders Pledge to Lead TPP Talks to Swift Conclusion
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 15 Apr 30, 2015
US President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe jointly pledged on Tuesday to help lead negotiations for a 12-country Pacific Rim trade deal to a "swift and successful conclusion," after meeting at the White House during the Japanese premier's highly-anticipated visit to Washington.

TTIP Talks Eye Regulatory Cooperation Advances Ahead of Political Review
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 15 Apr 30, 2015
The latest round of EU-US negotiations for a bilateral trade and investment deal reported progress in regulatory cooperation and rules, ahead of a "joint political review" that is slated to take place after the summer.

Draft US Trade Bill Outlines 10-Year AGOA Extension, GSP Renewal
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 15 Apr 30, 2015
A bipartisan bill to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for another decade was introduced in the US Congress on 16 April, quickly advancing out of the committee levels in both the House and Senate late last week. The current version of AGOA is due to expire on 30 September unless renewal legislation is approved beforehand.

UN Post-2015, Financing for Development Talks Debate Relationship
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 15 Apr 30, 2015
A joint session of the UN talks geared towards crafting a post-2015 development agenda and those designed to outline future development finance saw delegates debate the relationship between the two processes, and their outcome documents, due to be finalised in the coming months.

Bank of Japan Parts Ways With Reality
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Apr 30, 2015
Five signs the BOJ chief doesn't get the economy.

Reengineering Government
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Apr 30, 2015
The risk governments face nowadays is clear enough: absent a profound reengineering, inertial spending – owing to entitlements and civil-service wages – is bound to crowd out spending on new priorities and new policies. Fortunately, there are a few things governments can do to mitigate the effects.

Beyond Silicon Valley
Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendonca (Project Syndicate) Apr 30, 2015
Once again, California’s Silicon Valley is confirming its status as a mecca of high-tech entrepreneurship and wealth creation. But it is not a model for job creation and inclusive growth that policymakers and entrepreneurs elsewhere can emulate – at least not without making some fundamental adjustments.

Economic Policy Turned Inside Out
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Apr 30, 2015
Since the global economic crisis, policymakers in the US and elsewhere have resorted to financial engineering in an effort to recapture growth. In doing so, they have embarked on the greatest experiment in the modern history of economic policy – one that risks, once again, pushing the world economy to its limits.

An Asian Community Can Wait
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Apr 30, 2015
European countries may join the AIIB to deepen their business and political ties with China, but their financial stakes in the outcome are limited. Japan, however, has much to lose if the AIIB does not work according to plan, which is why it would be wise to wait before deciding whether to sign up.

An Even More Dismal Science
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Apr 30, 2015
For the past 25 years, a debate has raged among some of the world’s leading economists over whether the nature of the business cycle underwent a fundamental change after the end of the “30 glorious years” that followed World War II. A degree of consensus has emerged: the glory days are gone for good.

Tilting the playing field: Multinational firms and preferential market access
Emily Blanchard and Xenia Matschke (VoxEU) Apr 30, 2015
Recent decades have witnessed a dramatic shift in the nature of world trade brought about by the unbundling of international production. One implication is that lobbying by a nation’s firms can be partly influenced by a desired to protect their production facilities abroad. This column presents evidence that US imports from countries and industries with greater offshoring activity by US multinationals face distinctly lower trade barriers.

Focus Germany: German savers challenged by QE
Barbara Böttcher and Oliver Rakau (DB Research) Apr 30, 2015
Investing the German household way: A little more risk.