News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

Within Days, Russia's War on Ukraine Squeezes the Global Economy
Patricia Cohen (NYT) Mar 1, 2022
The price of energy has already shot higher, and the conflict imperils supply chains, factors that could exacerbate inflation and suppress growth.

Jonesing to Give Up Russian Oil
WSJ View Mar 1, 2022
Hawaii imports Moscow crude, and the Jones Act is one bad reason why.

Central banks' inflation trap: heading for a great escape or great reset?
Willem Middelkoop (OMFIF) Mar 1, 2022
Unorthodox monetary policies, the global inflation surge and a continued de facto debasement of fiat currencies are huge sources of nervousness for institutional and private investors. In a few short years, central banks have gone from confronting a deflationary collapse to what may become an inflationary spiral. In view of the prices spike, central banks in the US, UK and continental Europe are raising rates or strongly considering the prospect.

Sustainable Finance in Emerging Markets is Enjoying Rapid Growth, But May Bring Risks
Deepali Gautam, Rohit Goel and Fabio Natalucci (IMF) Mar 1, 2022
Financial stability concerns include potentially higher sensitivity to global financial conditions.

Six Things You Need to Know About the Russian Oil Shock
Javier Blas (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 1, 2022
The global market is facing its biggest disruption in more than three decades.

Unions Haven't Kept Up With the New Economy
Allison Schrager (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 1, 2022
Pressuring employers to provide stable jobs with uniform wages is holding workers back. To excel, individuals need a better safety net that encourages more risk-taking.

Five Questions About the Federal Reserve Trading Scandal
Kaleb Nygaard (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 1, 2022
The central bank won't be able to move on until these are answered.

Putin and Xi's Imperium of Grievance
Orville Schell (Project Syndicate) Mar 1, 2022
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there is no longer any doubt that the halcyon days of Western-led globalization are over, not just economically but also politically and culturally. The narrative of victimization that fuels Russian and Chinese nationalism will continue to prevail over the niceties of the post-Cold War era.

Will Russia's War Spur Trade Diversification?
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Mar 1, 2022
In today's turbulent world, economic security depends on countries' ability to depend on their trading partners. This raises serious short-term challenges, particularly for the European Union, which is in the unenviable position of being heavily dependent on Russian energy imports.

Will the Climate Agenda Unravel?
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Mar 1, 2022
Despite widespread worries about global warming, more immediate economic concerns risk relegating climate policy to the fringes of political debate. This situation raises three fundamental questions for governments.

Integration in global value chains might not increase exposure to risk after all
Alessandro Borin, Michele Mancini, and Daria Taglioni (VoxEU) Mar 1, 2022
Environmental, political, economic, and health disruptions in recent years have helped fuel concerns that too much interdependence through global value chains may be a problem. This column compares the relative effects of a domestic demand shock to those of a global value chain-related shock and concludes that engagement in global value chains allows unexpected shocks to demand to be managed better than in a world of predominantly domestic production, traditional trade, or regional value chains. Global value chain participation dampens exposure to risk, as idiosyncratic shocks are mitigated by a higher market differentiation.

Wages and profit shifting
Annette Alstadsæter, Julie Brun Bjørkheim, Ronald Davies, and Johannes Scheuerer (VoxEU) Mar 1, 2022
There is no longer any debate that some multinationals avoid taxes by shifting profits to tax havens. What is less understood, however, is what happens to the money not spent on taxes. Using matched employer-employee administrative data from Norway, this column shows that employer profit shifting contributes to income inequality and benefits high-skilled and high-paid employees most. High-skilled workers in service industries gain the most, with CEOs experiencing the highest wage increase.

Russia Economic Forecasts and Ruble Update
Brendan McKenna and Nick Bennenbroek (WF Econ Group) Mar 1, 2022
Russia-Ukraine developments continue to dominate headlines and rattle financial markets. By most accounts, Ukrainian forces have slowed the Russian advance into Kyiv; however, the military conflict has continued to intensify despite "peace talks" between Russian and Ukrainian officials. In response to Russian hostilities, the United States along with Western allies have arguably imposed one of the most severe sanctions regimes any country has ever faced. Sanctions have resulted in a meltdown in Russian financial markets, sent the ruble to all-time lows against the U.S. dollar, and crippled Russia's ability to access financing as well as most of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. Given the severity and effects of sanctions, the ruble has become a significantly more vulnerable. Despite the ruble being a more sensitive currency, we believe the current depreciation has overshot and the ruble could experience a modest recovery by the end of Q1-2022. However, we continue to forecast a weaker ruble over the longer-term, with risks around our USD/RUB exchange rate forecast tilted toward a weaker ruble than we expect. We base our long-term forecasts around a gradual easing in geopolitical tensions, and should conflict escalate further or sanctions intensify, the ruble could continuously hit new lows against the U.S. dollar.

Deciding When Debt Becomes Unsafe
Olivier Blanchard (F&D) Mar 1, 2022
Don't expect easy answers or simple rules. Projecting growth, deficits, and interest rates is just the beginning.

Shining a Light on Debt
Ceyla Pazarbasioglu and Carmen M. Reinhart (F&D) Mar 1, 2022
For economic recovery and crisis prevention, hidden liabilities and their terms must be revealed.

A Call for New Fiscal Rules
Arminio Fraga (F&D) Mar 1, 2022
Advanced and emerging market economies alike need new criteria for debt sustainability.

Understanding the Social State
Emmanuel Saez (F&D) Mar 1, 2022
Its growth is a puzzle for modern economics but has deep evolutionary roots.

Tackling Inequality on All Fronts
David Amaglobeli and Celine Thevenot (F&D) Mar 1, 2022
A comprehensive mix of fiscal policies can curb inequalities at every stage where they emerge.

Fiscal Institutions and the Pandemic
Felipe Larraín Bascuñan (F&D) Mar 1, 2022
Chile's experience shows the value of building the right framework for fiscal policy.

Value-Added Tax Continues to Expand
Ruud de Mooij and Arthur Swistak (F&D) Mar 1, 2022
More countries are adopting the VAT, and its contribution to global revenue is rising.

The shock and awe of sanctions on Russia
FT View Mar 2, 2022
West has shown unexpected resolve but measures should be part of controlled pressure.

A sea change is needed to tackle climate change
FT View Mar 2, 2022
Adapting to irreversible effects is as important as curbing warming.

Putin has reignited the conflict between tyranny and liberal democracy
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 2, 2022
A war of choice on the children of a peaceful democracy is not an action we can allow ourselves to forget.

The $300bn question facing central banks
Ousmène Mandeng (FT) Mar 2, 2022
The sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia's securities may prompt other countries to reassess how and where they hold their wealth.

Investing in a time of war
Simon Edelsten (FT) Mar 2, 2022
Safeguarding your wealth from the consequences of conflict can be tough.

Why the war on Ukraine is a turning point for markets too
Robin Brooks (FT) Mar 2, 2022
The shock to Europe's economy will overturn the debate on monetary policy.

Investors can no longer afford to ignore geopolitical risk
Helen Thomas (FT) Mar 2, 2022
The old distinction between business and politics often deployed by companies to stop debate is no longer credible.

Gold will soar as China seeks US dollar alternatives
David P. Goldman (AT) Mar 2, 2022
China is looking for alternatives to the US dollar as a reserve currency after Western nations froze the foreign assets of Russia's central bank last week, said a former IMF chief economist. The seizure of Russian sovereign assets has no precedent in postwar history, and sets a precedent for similar action against China in the event of hostilities over Taiwan.

Commodities: Time to Shine
Greg E. Sharenow and Andrew Dewitt (PIMCO) Mar 2, 2022
Commodities appear attractive amid elevated inflation, lingering supply-demand imbalances and high roll yields.

How to Make Sense of Market Forecasts in Wartime
Jared Dillian (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 2, 2022
Even in times of relative peace, economists' estimates are often wildly off the mark. But that doesn't mean they aren't useful.

Time for Supply
John H. Cochrane and John Hartley (Project Syndicate) Mar 2, 2022
Now that surging inflation has refocused everyone's attention on the long-ignored supply side of the economy, the question is how best to support broad-based growth, efficiency, and innovation. The answer is not necessarily deregulation, but the need for smarter regulation is increasingly apparent – even to progressives.

Will Sanctioning Russia Upend the Monetary System?
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Mar 2, 2022
By preventing Russia's central bank from accessing the country's foreign-exchange reserves, the West has effectively seized Vladimir Putin's war chest. And even in the face of this awesome display of Western power, alternatives to the dollar-dominated monetary system will not be forthcoming.

Is the Peace Dividend Over?
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Mar 2, 2022
One hopes that Russian President Vladimir Putin will soon realize that his Ukraine invasion has been a spectacular miscalculation. But even if the current crisis subsides, it should remind Western governments that sustainable growth requires paying for the capacity to sustain economies against external aggression.

Key features of the ECB's new monetary policy strategy
Sebastian Schmidt (VoxEU) Mar 2, 2022
Following a comprehensive review, the ECB announced its new monetary policy strategy in July 2021. Two key elements of this new strategy are the symmetry of the inflation target and the use of especially forceful or persistent measures when the economy is close to the effective lower bound. This column shows that these elements have strong foundations in existing macroeconomic frameworks. In the New Keynesian paradigm, a symmetric target may be more robust than asymmetric alternatives, and forceful or persistent measures may be necessary to stabilise inflation expectations.

The economic fallout of Russia's war poses nasty dilemma for west
Chris Giles (FT) Mar 3, 2022
From a source of economic strength during peacetime, FX reserves turned into the source of a crash during war.

Valuations offer support to European equities amid Ukraine uncertainty
Peter Oppenheimer (FT) Mar 3, 2022
Russian invasion has raised inflation expectations while lowering the growth outlook.

America's Very Peculiar Economic Funk
Paul Krugman (NYT) Mar 3, 2022
Negative views of the economy don't match people's experience.

Inflation, Deficits and Paul Volcker
Thomas Sargent and William Silber (WSJ) Mar 3, 2022
The Fed chairman who tamed runaway prices understood Congress's role in unleashing them.

Indian exporters to Russia face uncertain future
KS Kumar (AT) Mar 3, 2022
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis and the sanctions imposed by Western countries are worrying Indian firms doing business in Russia. The sanctions include curbs on some Russian banks using the Society For Worldwide Interbank Financial System (SWIFT) messaging system for international payments. The country's exporters now have unpaid dues stuck in Russia.

Ukraine upends PBOC and Fed's well-laid plans
William Pesek (AT) Mar 3, 2022
The Ukraine crisis already has officials in Beijing opening the monetary spigot. The fallout from Russia's invasion prompted the People's Bank of China (PBOC) on Friday to pump US$46 billion into the financial system via seven-day reverse repurchase agreements. The Federal Reserve's year in Washington had also been tossed into confusion.

Higher oil prices stemming from Russia-Ukraine war may be temporary
Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE) Mar 3, 2022
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, already a humanitarian and global security crisis, is deepening concerns about energy prices. Even before the invasion, gasoline prices in the United States had risen sharply since last February, driving inflation to a near 40-year high. Will the conflict drive prices even higher, and for how long? The answer: The effects are real but will likely be short-lived and/or regionalized, with the European market bearing the most significant impacts.

Global Money Markets Pass Their Stress Test — For Now
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 2, 2022
Global liquidity is easier to safeguard than it was during the global financial crisis.

Dethroning King Dollar Won't Be an Easy Feat
Robert Burgess (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 3, 2022
There is no alternative to the world's reserve currency despite any concern or wishful thinking to the contrary.

We Already Have a Solution for Oil's Price Shock
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 3, 2022
There's an opportunity to close budget gaps, reduce petroleum demand and cut emissions, all at once. The answer lies in public transit.

Central Banks Should Build Post-SWIFT Highways
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 3, 2022
There may be more than one new platform that comes into existence but the current infrastructure is way past its sell-by date.

Why Is Japan So Cheap?
Takatoshi Ito (Project Syndicate) Mar 3, 2022
Economists should not blame the Bank of Japan's monetary policies for the yen's declining purchasing power. It is flatlining productivity in tradable sectors and stagnant real wages that explain the arrival of Cheap Japan.

Global Growth and Inflation Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis
Brendan McKenna and Nick Bennenbroek (WF Econ Group) Mar 3, 2022
The circumstances surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine and resulting military confrontation continue to evolve quickly, and at times in unexpected ways. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is occurring not only in the eastern part of Ukraine, but also in major cities around the country. In response, the United States, European countries, and other western allies have imposed a range of severe economic sanctions on Russia. While the negative economic effects will clearly be most heavily felt in Russia itself, there is potential for a moderate negative impact on other economies through various economic channels. In this report we examine some possible growth and inflation implications to assess how key economies could be impacted if the Russia/Ukraine crisis persists, or even intensifies.

Sensitivity of U.S. Inflation and Growth to Higher Food Commodity Prices
Sarah House, Azhar Iqbal, and Karl Vesely (WF Econ Group) Mar 3, 2022
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has notably heightened risk in the global supply of energy, but this conflict has also created significant risk in global agricultural commodity markets. In this report, we simulate the impact that higher prices for food-related commodities could have on U.S. consumer price inflation and U.S. growth.

Emerging markets: where investing and politics meet
Stefan Wagstyl (FT) Mar 4, 2022
A cleanish list of investable nations could look worryingly short.

War in Ukraine has strengthened the case for alternatives to fossil fuel
Michael Bernstam (FT) Mar 4, 2022
Central bank sanctions strike at the foundations of Russia's economy

Emerging markets: where investing and politics meet
Stefan Wagstyl (FT) Mar 4, 2022
A cleanish list of investable nations could look worryingly short.

The bleak market outcome for Russia after Ukraine invasion
Paul McNamara (FT) Mar 4, 2022
Cutting banks from Swift has made headlines but lack of foreign capital is heaviest blow.

Economic Ties Among Nations Spur Peace. Or Do They?
Patricia Cohen (NYT) Mar 4, 2022
The Russian invasion of Ukraine strains the long-held idea that shared interests around business and commerce can deflect military conflict.

Wonking Out: Putin's Other Big Miscalculation
Paul Krugman (NYT) Mar 4, 2022
What will isolation do to the Russian economy?

Russia-Ukraine Crisis Amplifies Growth and Inflation Risks in Asia
Priyanka Kishore (BRINK) Mar 4, 2022
The sharp escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis has changed the global baseline and forecasts for economic growth.

ECB Learns a Lesson on How to Run a Bond Market
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 4, 2022
Central banks need to stay nimble to keep their capital markets functioning smoothly.

Emerging Markets Are the Canaries in the Credit Mines
Richard Cookson (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 4, 2022
The weakness that happens periodically in the debt of developing economies doesn't always presage bad things happening in the developed world, but in this case it probably does.

Where Is Dubai Leading Us?
Carlo Ratti (Project Syndicate) Mar 4, 2022
With a Minister for Artificial Intelligence and a Museum of the Future, Dubai wants to promote itself as a forward-thinking model for other metropolises. But a city known for energy-hungry skyscrapers and resource-intensive megaprojects will have a hard time leading the way in a world focused on sustainability.

Extraterritorial sanctions: A stick and a carrot
Ohyun Kwon, Constantinos Syropoulos, and Yoto Yotov (VoxEU) Mar 4, 2022
Sanctions are now a central tool of governments' foreign policy. This column examines the extraterritorial impact of sanctions on trade and welfare, and finds that the big extraterritorial burden of sanctions falls on target countries, whose trade with third countries is reduced significantly. Surprisingly, trade between senders and third countries increases due to sanctions. Thus, extraterritorial sanctions appear to be a stick and carrot for third countries, with the net effects depending on the size of the target and sender states and on the economic ties between the third countries/regions.

Little evidence for 'too much finance'
Rachel Cho, Rodolphe Desbordes, and Markus Eberhardt (VoxEU) Mar 4, 2022
The current consensus in the literature that the finance-growth nexus is more complex than previously thought has led to concerns about 'too much finance'. This column looks at the effects of 'too much finance' on growth and propensity for banking crisis and finds some evidence of a detrimental effect, but not for highly financially developed countries. Even for countries with intermediate levels of financial development, there do not appear to be any negative implications of 'too much finance' for long-term growth trajectories.

'This Is a Man Who, When Backed Into the Corner, Raises the Stakes'
Cameron Abadi (FP) Mar 4, 2022
FP columnist Adam Tooze on Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, and the West's economic war against Russia.

War in Ukraine sparks a commodity crisis
FT View Mar 5, 2022
Conflict in Europe's breadbasket risks a disaster for global food supply.

When global market bets went wrong
Philip Coggan (FT) Mar 5, 2022
International diversification did not work for US investors.

Turbulent times upend hedge funds
Laurence Fletcher (FT) Mar 5, 2022
The pace of the interest rate hiking cycle and Ukraine war have forced a scramble to reposition portfolios.

A new age of economic conflict
Economist Mar 5, 2022
The West has used crushing sanctions on Russia. The implications are huge.

Central banks should ignore soaring energy costs
Economist Mar 5, 2022
But they must continue fighting home-grown inflation.

Interest rate expectations shape the Federal Reserve's path of lift-off
Enrique Martínez García, and Rachel Doehr (VoxEU) Mar 5, 2022
Since 2021, the Federal Reserve has been signalling an earlier lift-off and a steepened federal funds rate path to rein in inflation. This column assesses evidence from the US of the signalling and uncertainty effects of forward guidance announcements. At the zero lower bound, forward guidance news shocks can have significant and asymmetric impacts, and historical evidence suggests the importance of clear communication to effectively restrain inflation. The Fed's evolving guidance on lift-off and the removal of accommodation therefore pose more difficult trade-offs than were previously understood.

The next Fed tightening cycle is not necessarily bad news for emerging markets
Gabriele Ciminelli, John Rogers, and Wenbin Wu (VoxEU) Mar 5, 2022
The capital flows literature does not distinguish between increases in US interest rates caused by upward revisions in the Fed economic outlook (information shocks) from those that are not (pure monetary policy shocks). This column argues that this distinction is crucial. Pure monetary policy shocks have conventional, negative effects but positive information shocks do not. The latter even drive a reallocation out of US Treasuries and into growth-sensitive US assets. If the current Fed tightening cycle is driven by expectations of stronger growth, it might not be bad news for emerging markets.

Hitting Putin Where It Hurts by Sanctioning Russia's Oil Exports
WSJ View Mar 6, 2022
A mere U.S. ban on Russian oil imports is a distraction from the real issue.

Bad News About the Good Inflation News
Jason Furman (WSJ) Mar 6, 2022
In the 'general equilibrium'—the big picture—encouraging signs often have discouraging implications.

The Bond Market Sees a Recession In the Oil Shock
Lisa Abramowicz (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 6, 2022
The message from the drop in yields is that the economy isn't strong enough to withstand the record jump in prices for energy and other commodities.

Southeast Asia Shows the High Cost of Fast Growth
Tim Culpan (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 6, 2022
Grab and Sea continue to act like startups. That's a risky strategy when economies slow and interest rates rise.

The Economic Challenge and Climate Opportunity in Supporting Ukraine
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Mar 6, 2022
Putin's dependence on oil-and-gas exports presents a chance to make the U.S. less beholden to fossil fuels and the autocratic governments that control them.

Why oil prices might still climb higher
Derek Brower (FT) Mar 7, 2022
The loss of Russian supply will be hard to replace even if the US shale industry increases production.

India's uneven economic rebound creates winners and losers
Benjamin Parkin and Jyotsna Singh (FT) Mar 7, 2022
The country has the world's fastest-growing economy, but many aren't seeing the rewards. Will Modi pay a political price?

Russia's war on Ukraine threatens a global food security crisis
Oleg Ustenko (FT) Mar 7, 2022
Our tractors should be ploughing fields and feeding the world, not towing enemy tanks.

India's uneven economic rebound creates winners and losers
Benjamin Parkin and Jyotsna Singh (FT) Mar 7, 2022
The country has the world's fastest-growing economy, but many aren't seeing the rewards. Will Modi pay a political price?

Car Industry Woes Show How Global Conflicts Will Reshape Trade
Jack Ewing (NYT) Mar 7, 2022
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the risks of doing business with authoritarian countries — not just Russia, but also China.

How Politicized Is the Federal Reserve?
Emre Kuvvet (WSJ) Mar 7, 2022
For every Republican economist the system employs, it has more than 10 Democrats.

'Stablecoins' claim to be a safer cryptocurrency — but they're far from risk-free
Nellie Liang (WaPo) Mar 7, 2022
The market for stablecoins is growing rapidly. For consumers to truly benefit, we need congressional regulation.

How Empowering Women Supports Economic Growth
IMF Mar 7, 2022
IMF research has consistently underscored the benefits of equality, including greater productivity and financial stability. To mark this International Women's Day, we present a roundup of our most recent blogs, podcasts, and research on gender.

Can Russia Use Its SDRs? Yes and No
Mark Plant, David Andrews and Lucas Sala (CGD) Mar 7, 2022
With Russia's attack on Ukraine raging and most of the world imposing severe financial sanctions on Russia, attention has turned to whether Russia could use its allocation of special drawing rights (SDRs) to bolster its foreign reserves and finance its war effort. The answer is yes, in principle, but no in practice. We explain why.

Financial sanctions have devastated Russia's economy. The EU and global financial system are absorbing the shock.
Joshua Kirschenbaum and Nicolas Véron (PIIE) Mar 7, 2022
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine started on February 24, much has happened in the financial sector, and events keep unfolding at a rapid pace. At the time of writing, Russia is reeling from the impact of massive financial sanctions inflicted by a very broad pro-Ukraine coalition. The Ukrainian financial system is battered but remains functional; and the European Union (EU) financial system has rather easily absorbed the initial shock, as has the global financial system more broadly.

Freezing foreign exchange reserves opens door for central banks to buy bitcoin
Lewis McLellan (OMFIF) Mar 7, 2022
Following the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian central bank's foreign exchange reserves at the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and European Central Bank have been frozen. This could boost cryptocurrency to a more prominent position within central bank reserves. While the limitations of cryptocurrency are real, perhaps it is the duty of central banks to ensure they have a stash of non-custodial assets to hand.

Increasing public investment to strengthen the recovery from the pandemic: A glass only half-full
Hermes Morgavi, Álvaro Pina and Enes Sunel (OECD Ecoscope) Mar 7, 2022
As the recovery from the pandemic progresses, there is an opportunity to refocus fiscal policy support and shift the composition of government expenditure towards productive investments in physical infrastructure, education and research. Provided they are well designed and managed, such investments can strengthen growth prospects and have a durable impact on living standards

The World Economy Can Get By Surprisingly Well With $129 Crude
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 7, 2022
We can ride out this turmoil, but only if policy makers sit back and wait for the market to rebalance.

As Russia Goes, So Goes State Capitalism?
Adrian Wooldridge (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 7, 2022
Its economic implosion under Western pressure offers a cautionary tale for China and other state-dominated economies.

U.S. Debt Is Massive and Expanding. It's Also Under Control.
Gary Shilling (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 7, 2022
The idea that even a small increase in rates would force the government to borrow just to pay the interest on its bonds is a nice theory, but the numbers don't add up.

Cracks Are Showing in Consumers' Tolerance for Inflation
Andrea Felsted (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 7, 2022
People haven't yet cut back broadly, but they are poised to trim spending on groceries, big-ticket items and mid-market clothing.

Buying Financial Assets Tied to Russia Isn't Totally Irrational
Jared Dillian (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 7, 2022
The returns are potentially huge, but there's the question of whether it's the moral thing to do.

China's Dilemma: Huge Growth, Achieved Carefully
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 7, 2022
Officials' ambitious economic targets have many questioning their feasibility without massive stimulus.

The Ukraine War's Multifaceted Economic Fallout
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Mohamed A. El-Erian) Mar 7, 2022
While the Russian and Ukrainian economies are being hit the hardest by Russia's invasion, the economic consequences of the war will not be confined to the countries fighting it. To mitigate the risks, countries must start developing their recovery plans now.

Joseph E. Stiglitz and Kevin P. Gallagher (Project Syndicate) Mar 7, 2022
After long advocating policies that put the interest of private capital before those of emerging markets and developing countries, the International Monetary Fund has been recognizing the error of its ways. But if it really wants to get back to its core mission, it must reform its position on capital controls.

Oil shocks need not stoke inflation
Ethan Wu (FT) Mar 8, 2022
And the dollar is just fine.

Will the Ukraine war derail the green energy transition?
Leslie Hook and Neil Hume (FT) Mar 8, 2022
As Europe scrambles to find alternatives to Russian oil and gas and global energy prices soar, coal could be the winner.

How the U.S. Can Siphon Russia's Oil Revenue
Frank Fannon (WSJ) Mar 8, 2022
To inflict maximum economic pain on Putin, eliminate his petroleum from global markets.

Biden's Russian roulette may kill dollar dominance
William Pesek (AT) Mar 8, 2022
Among the US president's steps to sanction Vladimir Putin for his brutal invasion of Ukraine is effectively cutting Russia off from much of its currency reserves. Markets were every bit as flummoxed as Putin's central bank, which planned to use that US$630 billion war chest to stabilize what's now a junk-rated economy.

European Banks Brace for Fallout From the Crisis in Ukraine
Alex Privitera (BRINK) Mar 8, 2022
As the wave of economic sanctions against Russia continues, investors are preparing for a period of increased volatility.

Developing economies must act now to dampen the shocks from the Ukraine conflict
Indermit Gill (Brookings) Mar 8, 2022
As devastating as it has been, the coronavirus pandemic was an object lesson in the power of policymakers to respond effectively to a catastrophe. However, prevention is better than cure. Governments in developing economies would be wise to act now.

Reserves freeze sends shivers through Moscow
Shahin Vallée (OMFIF) Mar 8, 2022
Europe's reluctance to agree Swift-based sanctions free from exclusions has brought a far stronger policy response: freezing the assets of Russia's central bank. The private financial system is therefore not fully isolated from the global payments system allowing at least energy-related transactions to be settled, but the official assets of the central bank held abroad have been frozen. This could have long-term consequences.

How do digital services taxes work?
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Megan Hogan (PIIE) Mar 8, 2022
The digitalization of economies and cross-border trade have posed new challenges to policymakers trying to tax company profits. The existing international tax system was designed in the age of brick-and-mortar commerce and only allows governments to tax firms with a physical presence in their country. To expand their tax bases, many countries, including France, Britain, and Italy, have proposed digital services taxes (DSTs) that tax companies based on their digital presence as well.

Europe's Long-Suffering Stock Market May Get What It Needs
Kevin Muir (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 8, 2022
The European economy would benefit from less monetary and more fiscal stimulus, which looks like it will soon arrive.

Five Things to Know About Nickel's 90% Price Surge
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 8, 2022
Most importantly, there's no need to panic — there's a supply boom underway and this spike is unlikely to last.

Europe Needs to Cut Energy Demand. Now.
Javier Blas (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 8, 2022
The price surges in oil, gas, coal and electricity are going to wallop the continent's economies unless industries and ordinary people start conserving immediately.

Wartime Economy Freezes ECB's Retreat from Quantitative Easing
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 8, 2022
Accelerating inflation combined with slowing growth should keep euro zone policy on hold for now.

Stagflation Is Already Here in the Housing Market
Conor Sen (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 8, 2022
Soaring prices and low inventory are causing headaches for homebuilders and buyers but benefiting owners — and therein lies the Fed's predicament as it seeks to lower inflation.

Why China Won't Help Russia Around Sanctions
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 8, 2022
Exports are the saving grace for a country struggling with a slowing economy. Beijing doesn't want to alienate its two largest trading partners.

Empty Threats to Ban Russian Oil Will Only Help Putin
Julian Lee (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 8, 2022
Unless a ban is mandated by Europe and the U.S., the talk will just keep pushing up oil and gas prices without cutting the volumes Moscow can sell.

Closing Tax Havens Is the True Test of the West's Resolve
Daron Acemoglu (Project Syndicate) Mar 8, 2022
For years, Western governments and financial institutions have been gladly profiting from the schemes that allow Russian oligarchs and others to stash their ill-gotten gains abroad. Their complicity has removed the incentives these elites might have had to rein in their countries' authoritarian leaders.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/asset-markets-ignoring-nuclear-risk-by-willem-h-buiter-2022-03
Willem H. Buiter (Project Syndicate) Mar 8, 2022
Following Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a nuclear conflict seems more likely now than it has in decades. Even if the probability of such a catastrophe remains small, that is no reason for asset markets to discount it entirely.

Pari Passu Saga 2.0?
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Mar 9, 2022
Russia could open itself up to Argentina-style litigation if it ever manages to restructure its debts.

What does banning Russian oil mean for global energy markets?
Derek Brower, Justin Jacobs and Myles McCormick (FT) Mar 9, 2022
Analysts warn of supply shock akin to 1979 crisis if moves by US and others trigger broad blockade.

War in Ukraine: will the Baltics become the 'new West Berlin'?
Richard Milne (FT) Mar 9, 2022
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could potentially be encircled by Russian expansion but their leaders insist they have never been as secure

Russia's War Is Raising Gas Prices and Roiling Financial Markets
Jeff Sommer (NYT) Mar 9, 2022
The price of gasoline is climbing and the markets are adjusting to gloomier prospects as the war in Ukraine grinds on.

China's safe haven looking more like a minefield
William Pesek (AT) Mar 9, 2022
On any list of leaders of major economies who are hating 2022, there's a place at the very top for China's Xi Jinping. This was supposed to be a year of crowning achievement for President Xi, when he secured an unprecedented third term as top Communist Party leader. Instead, China's economy is experiencing its weakest growth in more than 30 years.

The Ukraine Crisis Could Accelerate a Decoupling in Global Trade
Nicolas Lamp (BRINK) Mar 9, 2022
The unprecedented level of sanctions is cutting off Russia from international trade systems.

'Buy the Dip' Is No Longer a Sure Thing for Investors
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 9, 2022
Economics, finance and related policies aren't the main drivers of stock prices now, and the war in Ukraine offers only uncertainty.

Germany Must Be Looking at the ECB in Despair
Richard Cookson (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 9, 2022
The outlook for inflation and the euro, already dire, is even worse with the central bank unable to raise interest rates enough without destroying the economy.

Volatility Is the Price of a Safer Banking System
Robert Burgess (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 9, 2022
Many of the risks once held by banks have been transferred to less regulated and more opaque corners of the markets.

Excited About a Digital Dollar? Not So Fast.
Darrell Duffie (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 9, 2022
The privacy technology isn't ready. Meanwhile, there's a lot the U.S. can do to improve the existing payment system.

The Fed Expects a Soft Landing. Don't Count on It.
Gary Shilling (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 9, 2022
The odds that Chair Jerome Powell can avoid forcing the economy into a recession are getting longer by the day.

The Rate-Hike Bidding War Can End Now
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 9, 2022
This is no time for brazen acts just to prove credibility. Wall Street's aggressive forecasts should be tamed.

Can Sanctions on Russia Work Without China?
Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) Mar 9, 2022
As the conflict in Ukraine escalates, the growing calls to tighten the economic blockade against Russia are perhaps understandable. But China is likely to resist them, and further sanctions – especially in the energy sector – will not hurt Russia alone.

Closing the Global Childcare Gap
Megan O'Donnell (Project Syndicate) Mar 9, 2022
Since the start of the pandemic, the world's wealthiest countries have sought to strengthen their domestic childcare infrastructure and broaden access. But if these countries truly want to improve the economic outlook for women globally, they must invest in childcare programs abroad, too.

Cutting Russia's fossil fuel exports: Short-term pain for long-term gain
Maksym Chepeliev, Thomas Hertel, and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (VoxEU) Mar 9, 2022
In response to the invasion of Ukraine, most OECD countries have announced punishing sanctions against Russia. But the sanctions have so far failed to target Russia's primary source of foreign exchange – exports of fossil fuels. This column argues that while the short-term impact of restricting Russia's fossil fuel exports on EU households' real income would be non-trivial, the longer-term cost would be more modest and would be offset by considerable environment co-benefits. Meanwhile, the adverse impacts on the Russian economy would be overwhelming.

US ban on Russian oil will have limited effect
FT View Mar 10, 2022
Moscow will find other buyers for its energy exports, at a high price.

Chile can set an example again for the developing world
FT View Mar 10, 2022
Boric should show how to twin social justice with green growth.

The New Financial Supermarkets
Maureen Farrell (NYT) Mar 10, 2022
Private-equity firms were once niche players serving big clients. Now they're trying to be everything to everyone.

Inflation: Who or What Is the Culprit?
Mark Hendrickson (Mises Wire) Mar 10, 2022
A central bank whose policies accommodate irresponsible deficit spending by the federal government is a menace to society, unleashing uncontrollable forces.

Will anchored inflation expectations actually anchor inflation?
Jason Furman (PIIE) Mar 10, 2022
The most compelling argument for a benign inflation outlook is that long-run inflation expectations remain anchored about where the Federal Reserve wants them to be. This argument was also one of the principal reasons that so many forecasters predicted low inflation in 2021—a forecast that ended up being wildly at variance with the resulting inflation. Is there reason to believe that this argument will work any better in 2022?

It's Joe Biden's Inflation
WSJ View Mar 10, 2022
He blames Vladimir Putin, but his policies and the Federal Reserve are at fault.

The Fed Needs to Put Its Eye on the Money Supply
John Greenwood and Steve H. Hanke (WSJ) Mar 10, 2022
Slowing its growth without triggering a recession is a tricky proposition. Is the central bank up for it?

What is needed to tame US inflation?
Karen Dynan (PIIE) Mar 10, 2022
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of prices—the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—rose 5.8 percent over the four quarters of 2021, the largest surge in four decades. For inflation to retrace its rise in coming quarters, some combination of factors would have to break the right way: The inertia of inflation (through expectations or other channels) would have to be low, economic slack would have to increase notably, and adverse supply shocks would need to subside or even reverse.

Europe's economic response to the Russia-Ukraine war will redefine its priorities and future
Jean Pisani-Ferry (PIIE) Mar 10, 2022
The Russia-Ukraine war is bound to deliver an economic blow to the European Union (EU) and its member states and to require a rethink of a range of economic policies.[1]

The Fed Needs to Delay Its Rate Hikes
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 10, 2022
The war in Ukraine makes the central bank's job more difficult but also more straightforward.

Elevated Inflation Settles In for the Long Run
Jonathan Levin (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 10, 2022
The consumer price index is running hot, and the contributors to rising prices will be difficult to cool off.

ECB Stays the Course on Inflation as Hawks Prevail
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 10, 2022
The central bank is taking the risky step of curbing stimulus even as the outlook for growth dims.

China's Smart Move Would Be to Push Putin to Peace
Robert Bruce Zoellick (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 10, 2022
The EU and U.S. should make clear to Beijing that Russian recklessness is undermining its global objectives.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-financial-sanctions-will-change-currency-reserves-by-barry-eichengreen-2022-03
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Mar 10, 2022
The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine are financially and economically devastating, which is precisely their intent. Having witnessed this demonstration of financial shock and awe, will other countries re-think how and where they hold their foreign assets?

The IMF's Agreement with Argentina Could Be a Game Changer
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Mark Weisbrot (Project Syndicate) Mar 10, 2022
After long pushing failed belt-tightening policies, the International Monetary Fund has agreed to a deal that will allow Argentina's government to pursue a pro-growth strategy. The task now will be to manage the inevitable shocks that will come from today's tumultuous global economic environment.

Will Putin's War Slow China's Growth?
Nancy Qian (Project Syndicate) Mar 10, 2022
The additional spike in food and energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be devastating for China. But the country's neutral political stance toward the war may also yield economic gains.

Sanctions, war, and systemic risk in 1914 and 2022
Jon Danielsson, Charles Goodhart, and Robert Macrae (VoxEU) Mar 10, 2022
The Western countries have sanctioned Russia in a way not applied to any globally integrated major power in over a century, ever since 1914. This column argues that there are lessons to be learned from the 1914 systemic crisis and that high inflation and government debt will make it difficult to contain a crisis today if one emerges.

ECB Signals Faster Tapering, BoE Up Next
Nick Bennenbroek and Brendan McKenna (WF Econ Group) Mar 10, 2022
European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers indicated a faster pace of tapering under its Asset Purchase Programme, a surprise given that uncertainties across Europe stemming from the Russia-Ukraine crisis persist. While the ECB took a more hawkish stance on tapering, it did not make significant changes regarding the timing of interest rate increases, in our view. We still believe the ECB is on pace to lift its Deposit Rate 25 bps at its December meeting; however, the ECB gave itself optionality on the timing amid new uncertainties. In contrast, the Bank of England (BoE) is set to meet next week, where we expect the central bank to lift policy rates. Inflationary pressures continue to build in the U.K. and we expect BoE policymakers to focus on inflation as opposed to potential growth effects stemming from the Ukraine crisis. Over the course of this year, we expect BoE policymakers to continue tightening policy, and we now forecast the central bank's policy rate to be lifted to 1.50% by the end of 2022.

Putin's War Could Save the Global Economic Order
By Edward Alden (FP) Mar 10, 2022
In this crisis, Western countries have shaken off decades of economic policy lethargy.

Toppling the dollar as reserve currency risks harmful fragmentation
Robin Harding (FT) Mar 11, 2022
Sanctions against Russia have spurred calls for an alternative holding, but this would only destabilise the financial system.

War in Ukraine could accelerate the growth of the crypto sector
Gillian Tett (FT) Mar 11, 2022
Philanthropy in the industry is another symbol of how it is eager to engage with the establishment.

An energy shock and high inflation: are the 1970s reborn?
Merryn Somerset Webb (FT) Mar 11, 2022
One thing is for sure. We won't be going back to the 2010s.

Where $5 Trillion in Pandemic Stimulus Money Went
Alicia Parlapiano, Deborah B. Solomon, Madeleine Ngo and Stacy Cowley (NYT) Mar 11, 2022
It is the largest government relief effort in recorded history, and two years after Covid-19 crisis began, money is still flowing to communities. Here's where it went and how it was spent.

The Biden blame game on inflation won't work
Hugh Hewitt (WaPo) Mar 13, 2022
Biden wants us to blame Putin for inflation. Good luck with that.

Russia sanctis threaten to backfire on the buck
William Pesek (AT) Mar 11, 2022
Japan and China tend to agree on very little when it comes to economic strategy, geopolitics or managing Western idiosyncrasies. Yet Joe Biden is bringing Tokyo and Beijing together on one issue: their combined US$2.4 trillion of US Treasury debt holdings that are now suddenly in doubt. The immediate worry is a surge in US bond yields that slams global markets and business confidence.

Return of guns and butter: war, inflation and central banks
David Marsh (OMFIF) Mar 11, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is coinciding with persistent inflation, fuelled by surging energy prices, just as during the height of the cold war.

Crisis may push European central banks to favour US reserves
Julian Jacobs (OMFIF) Mar 11, 2022
Recent developments in the Russo-Ukrainian war are spurring a review of priorities among central banks. Amid the humanitarian crisis and accompanying sanctions on Russia, reserves managers are not only reconsidering their growth outlook and inflation expectations, they are also reconsidering their willingness to orientate their portfolios around European assets, bonds and currencies.

Forecasters underestimated US inflation in 2021 and are now revising 2022 forecasts up
Karen Dynan (PIIE) Mar 11, 2022
Forecasters greatly underestimated US inflation in 2021. The initial inflationary surge was met with optimism. Most analysts expected supply chain shocks caused by the pandemic to be temporary and saw little evidence inflation would persist or rise further. Three decades of low and stable inflation gave people confidence that inflation would not become self-perpetuating.

Why US inflation surged in 2021 and what the Fed should do to control it
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) Mar 11, 2022
Inflation surged to 6 percent over the 12 months through January 2022, far above the Federal Reserve's target of 2 percent.[1] The jump was caused by strong consumer demand and a number of supply disruptions. The Fed, which eased policy in the 2020 recession, is signaling a gradual tightening this year, and it stands ready to tighten more rapidly if needed. Over the next couple of years, inflation will move down, but probably not all the way to 2 percent.

All the Ways Banks Can Get Hit by Putin's War
Paul J. Davies (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 11, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine sets off ripples of risk through finance and markets.

Ukraine War Makes Supply Chain Problems Seem Quaint
Brooke Sutherland (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 11, 2022
Industrial companies' logistics snarls pale in comparison to geopolitical conflict.

Whatever Happened to Common Prosperity?
Matthew Brooker (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 11, 2022
For a while there, Xi Jinping's favorite slogan was everywhere in China. Then growth slowed and Russia invaded Ukraine.

Putin's War Is Damaging the Developing World
Jayati Ghosh (Project Syndicate) Mar 11, 2022
Russia's invasion of its neighbor has caused additional increases in oil and food prices, further harming developing countries struggling to recover from the pandemic. Multilateral organizations should provide financing to help these economies cope with multiple shocks, and back regulations to prevent speculation in key markets.

The Anatomy of the Net-Zero Transition
Mekala Krishnan (Project Syndicate) Mar 11, 2022
Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 – and thus limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – implies profound economic and societal shifts. According to a new report, a successful transition would have six key characteristics.

Making Japan Productive Again
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Mar 11, 2022
If Japanese companies after the pandemic opt to resume a traditional work routine – with its long hours, strict schedules, exhausting commutes on packed trains, and minimal vacations – both people and the economy will suffer. Even small changes, focused on increasing flexibility, would make a big difference.

Foreign Companies Could Lose Everything in Russia
Elisabeth Braw (FP) Mar 11, 2022
Asset seizure and hostage diplomacy are likely as Moscow spirals.

War brings echoes of the 1970s oil shock
FT View Mar 12, 2022
Legacy of embargo is a world better prepared to withstand high prices.

Inflation alarm focuses the minds of investors
Katie Martin (FT) Mar 12, 2022
Markets take their cue from hawkish central banks rather than fears over Ukraine fallout.

War and sanctions have caused commodities chaos
Economist Mar 12, 2022
The world must rise to the challenge.

Can the world cope without Russia's huge commodity stash?
Economist Mar 12, 2022
High prices will outlast the war.

War in Ukraine will cripple global food markets
Economist Mar 12, 2022
The share of incomes spent on staples is about to jump everywhere

The Fed Hits the Housing-Market Wall
Brooke Sample (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 12, 2022
There are two ways policy makers could ease stagflation for consumers and industry players. Neither one is without serious challenges.

The Ukraine war has raised long-term inflation expectations
Pascal Seiler (VoxEU) Mar 12, 2022
Until recently, central banks such as the ECB and the Swiss National Bank considered the current rise in inflation to be temporary, albeit more persistent than expected. This column uses survey data from Switzerland and a quasi-experimental research design to show that companies' long-term inflation expectations have increased significantly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, especially in manufacturing. In this sector, higher energy and commodity prices prove particularly important in motivating price increases. These findings add to concerns about de-anchored inflation expectations and, as a result, more persistent inflationary pressures.

The wartime power of central banks
Patrick O'Brien and Nuno Palma (VoxEU) Mar 12, 2022
Special wartime monetary policies have successfully been used on numerous occasions throughout history. This column describes how the Bank of England played a decisive role in supporting the British economy during the French Wars of 1793-1815. Rapid increases in military expenditure during wartime were supported by liquid and low-inflation government financing as well as reputable management of debt levels. In this light, current sanctions on the Bank of Russia could lead to long-term changes to Russia's economy and political system as well.

The Art of Monetary War
Dominik A. Leusder (n+1) Mar 12, 2022
Sanctions and the new phase of economic combat.

The west and Ukraine must start planning for the peace they want now
Martin Sandbu (FT) Mar 13, 2022
Uncertainty about the outcome of the war is not an excuse to delay thinking about the future.

The U.S. should not rush into a digital dollar
WaPo View Mar 13, 2022
Digital currency is coming. But it should be handled carefully.

How the Ukraine Crisis Is Disrupting Global Supply Chains
Mark Millar (BRINK) Mar 13, 2022
After two years of upheaval from COVID, the further disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine could cause many companies to rethink their suppliers.

Fed Expectations Don't Add Up In the Debt Market
Lisa Abramowicz (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 13, 2022
Many investors seem confident the U.S. can avoid a recession despite the expected amount of monetary tightening and the drag on the economy from surging food and energy prices.

We'll Miss Globalization When It's Gone
Matthew G Yglesias (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 13, 2022
The war in Ukraine is accelerating a decline in world trade that has been going on for the last decade.

Robots for economic development
Massimiliano Calì and Giorgio Presidente (VoxEU) Mar 13, 2022
Do automation technologies constitute an opportunity or a threat for developing countries? This column uses data on Indonesian manufacturing firms to document a positive impact on employment of adopting robots. This finding contrasts with the existing evidence of negative impacts in economies at relatively advanced stages of automation, and could be explained by diminishing returns to robots, given the relatively low robot adoption in Indonesia.

A brewing economic storm in eastern Europe
FT View Mar 14, 2022
Action is needed to help those at the front line of the Ukrainian crisis.

No shelter for the Fed
Nick Mazing (FT) Mar 14, 2022
When it comes to US inflation, there are problems in the pipeline that have nothing to do with things that come down pipelines.

Fall of Lehman shows how unpredictable impact of Russian sanctions could be
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Mar 14, 2022
The world should take lessons from 2008 and brace for a financial and economic shock.

China Sees at Least One Winner Emerging From Ukraine War: China
Steven Lee Myers and Chris Buckley (NYT) Mar 14, 2022
The country's leaders think it can shield itself from economic and diplomatic fallout and eventually be seen as a pillar of stability.

How Not to Have a Putin Recession
Paul Krugman (NYT) Mar 14, 2022
The Fed should keep calm and carry on.

The Humbling of the Federal Reserve
WSJ View Mar 14, 2022
The central bank faces an inflation mess of its own making.

Let's Start Raising Interest Rates
Mickey D. Levy (WSJ) Mar 14, 2022
The Fed is wrong to say that inflation will moderate. It's time to normalize monetary policy.

Russia Can Hold Nickel Hostage
Allysia Finley (WSJ) Mar 14, 2022
If Putin cuts off supply of the metal, the electric-vehicle economy will sputter.

Inflation and the risk of recession are about to get much, much worse
Catherine Rampell (WaPo) Mar 14, 2022
There's never a good time for a downturn. But it's hard to imagine a worse time than now.

The painful lesson for inflation doves: Be careful what you wish for
Megan McArdle (WaPo) Mar 14, 2022
Yes, the Fed's longstanding 2 percent target came with costs. But its benefits have been substantial — as is now becoming painfully clear.

It shouldn't have taken a war to clean up the US financial system
Boston Globe Opinion Mar 14, 2022
As the Biden administration seeks to seize Russian assets, it should also work to end America's role in promoting financial secrecy around the world.

The inflationary consequences of Russia's war will spread
Economist Mar 14, 2022
Inflation, already high, will go higher still. What will central banks do?

How the Ukraine Crisis Is Disrupting Global Supply Chains, Part 2
Sarah Schiffling (BRINK) Mar 14, 2022
The conflict in Ukraine has had a ripple effect on a wide variety of global supply chains, including energy, agriculture and metals.

EU Must Seize Hamilton Moment to Lift Euro's Role
Jenny Paris (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 14, 2022
Europe's shared currency may be on the cusp of finally challenging the supremacy of the dollar.

Bank of England Has Trapped Itself in a Tightening Corner
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 14, 2022
With inflation at a 30-year high, the U.K. central bank should raise interest rates for a third time.

The Oil Price Rally Is Bad. The Diesel Crisis Is Far Worse
Javier Blas (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 14, 2022
Diesel is the workhorse of the global economy. And prices have surged in recent days to an all-time high.

Federal Reserve Faces a Policy Dilemma of Its Own Design
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 14, 2022
The central bank dug itself into a hole, and the way out means risking either a recession or future price and financial instability.

How Brutal Is the Fed Prepared to Be?
Clive Crook (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 14, 2022
If inflation expectations get out of control, a deliberately induced recession may be the central bank's only option.

How to Manage the Biggest Risk of All: Uncertainty
Allison Schrager (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 14, 2022
Technology and big data have allowed us to minimize risk in our lives, but nasty surprises like pandemics and war show us that flexibility is the real key.

Treasury Bonds Aren't the Haven You Need Right Now
Alexis Leondis (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 14, 2022
U.S. government bonds don't make sense as a place to shelter your money from stock market gyrations. There are better options.

Inflation Is Bringing Back the K-Shaped Economy
Conor Sen (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 14, 2022
The top end of the wealth scale won't need to curb spending thanks to soaring home equity and fattened savings, while higher prices squeeze renters at the bottom.

China's Hedge Against Geopolitical Shock
Zhang Jun (Project Syndicate) Mar 14, 2022
American policies aimed at stemming China's economic and technological rise could mean escalating strategic costs for the US. But they will not have a lasting impact on the Chinese economy, let alone stop China's economic rise.

A proposal for a central fiscal capacity for the EMU
Roel Beetsma, Jacopo Cimadomo, and Josha van Spronsen (VoxEU) Mar 14, 2022
The global crisis and Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the limitations of the European Economic and Monetary Union, particularly the lack of a fiscal union for cross-border risk sharing. This column proposes a central fiscal capacity for the euro area in which transfers to/from regions are driven by euro-area, country-specific, and region-specific shocks. The scheme can produce substantial stabilisation of regional growth with a limited need for the system as a whole to borrow in any given year. The success of the current Recovery and Resilience Facility will be an important litmus test for such a broader central fiscal capacity.

Inflation and the Fed's new framework in the time of Covid-19
Gauti Eggertsson, Alessandro Lin, Josef Platzer, and Luca Riva (VoxEU) Mar 14, 2022
The Fed recently introduced an average inflation targeting framework, in which past inflation shortfalls shape current policy. This column assesses this policy relative to alternatives in the context of the Covid-19 recession and recovery. The authors calibrate a simple New Keynesian model at the zero lower bound to replicate the Fed's policy, finding that the new framework substantially reduced the US output contraction by about 40%. Alternative policies would have reduced the contraction by even more. The results suggest that the Fed places some weight on output stabilisation alongside inflation.

How Big a Threat to the U.S. Economy Is the War in Ukraine?
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Mar 14, 2022
There are more important things than inflation, such as defending democracies. But the longer the war goes on, the bigger the economic costs are likely to be.

War leaves central banks with tough choices
FT View Mar 15, 2022
Rising inflation makes the case for tightening but caution is needed.

Banking union is essential if the EU is to ride out future crises
Paschal Donohoe (FT) Mar 15, 2022
The sector must be helped to play its part in delivering Europe's green and digital transition.

Market fallout from Ukraine war combines the risks of past crises/A>
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Mar 15, 2022
Global economy faces some of the same challenges of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s — but all simultaneously.

New anti-money laundering standards can also help sanctions find their Russian targets
Kate Beioley (FT) Mar 15, 2022
Financial Action Taskforce's drive to end the anonymity of corporate beneficiaries will make tracing assets easier.

The main currency of NFTs is attention
Tim Bradshaw (FT) Mar 15, 2022
For committed traders in the digital collectibles market, speculation and hype is part of the appeal.

What Japanese car auctions are signalling on the global economy
Leo Lewis (FT) Mar 15, 2022
Sales of used vehicles for foreign markets reveal the impact of the Ukraine war and rising commodity prices.

Dollars or Rubles? Russian Debt Payments Are Due, and Uncertain.
Eshe Nelson, Alan Rappeport and Lauren Hirsch (NYT) Mar 15, 2022
Citing sanctions, the Russian government warned it might pay foreign debt obligations in rubles. Credit rating agencies say a default is imminent.

China's Covid Lockdowns Set to Further Disrupt Global Supply Chains
Keith Bradsher (NYT) Mar 15, 2022
A surge in Omicron variant infections has prompted Chinese authorities to lock down residents, close factories and stop truck traffic, snarling already frayed supply chains.

Can Germany Break Up With Russian Gas?
Paul Krugman (NYT) Mar 15, 2022
When a small import threatens to become a big problem.

Why U.S. Oil and Gas Producers Aren't Solving the Energy Crisis
Paul H. Tice (WSJ) Mar 15, 2022
The crash of 2020 and the pressure of climate-change politics led them to reconsider their business models.

The Fed is charting a course to stagflation and recession
Lawrence H. Summers (WaPo) Mar 15, 2022
Central to fighting inflation is showing that a new paradigm is in place — and so far, the Fed hasn't been willing to do what's needed.

There Is No Winner In this Trade War
Joseph Solis-Mullen (Mises Wire) Mar 15, 2022
Trade war means increasing the debt, eroding the public confidence, raising prices, and burdening the economy with interventions. All of it done in the name of the "public good."

China is too tied to the global economy to risk helping Russia
Tianlei Huang and Nicholas R. Lardy (PIIE) Mar 15, 2022
The protracted war in Ukraine has plainly caught China off guard and led to some confusion and mixed reports about the extent to which President Xi Jinping's regime supports Moscow's offensive. China continues to withhold explicit criticism of the Russian invasion and may still be working to formulate a coherent response. But beyond the rhetoric out of Beijing, the evidence suggests China is not acting to undermine the economic and financial sanctions on Russia and indeed has moved to support the drive to isolate Russia economically. We believe that this is the result of a cost-benefit calculation by President Xi, who appears to be far more rational than President Putin.

How War in Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World's Regions
Alfred Kammer, Jihad Azour, Abebe Aemro Selassie, IIan Goldfajn and Changyong Rhee (IMF) Mar 15, 2022
The conflict is a major blow to the global economy that will hurt growth and raise prices.

Can This Emerging Market Icon Put Authoritarian Rule Behind It?
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 15, 2022
It would be ironic if Jokowi, elected as an outside reformer, made Indonesia an inside game. The president should leave office in 2024.

Market Moves Compound Risk of ECB Policy Error
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 15, 2022
The central bank's newfound hawkishness has spooked financial markets.

China Doesn't Care If It's Uninvestable — for Foreigners
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 15, 2022
Beijing's priority is to keep the real economy going. And if the Hang Seng falls into bear territory, too bad.

What's the Future of Crypto? To Be More Boring
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 15, 2022
It's worth remembering that, when it comes to economic affairs, unexciting can be exactly what you are looking for.

Government procurement and macroeconomic outcomes
Julian di Giovanni, Manuel García-Santana, Priit Jeenas, Enrique Moral-Benito, and Josep Pijoan-Mas (VoxEU) Mar 15, 2022
Whether the allocation of public procurement contracts should target small firms is the subject of active policy debate. This column uses firm-level evidence and a macroeconomic model to show that granting public procurement contracts to small firms may help them accumulate assets and overcome their financial constraints in the long run, but the reallocation of projects may damage the saving incentives of larger firms. Specific details on how procurement policies are implemented at the firm level are crucial for understanding their macroeconomic impact.

Digital renminbi will not help Russia evade sanctions
Arthur Kroeber (FT) Mar 16, 2022
China's currency experiment is not even close to ready for large-scale international use.

Investing in a lower-carbon future
David Stevenson (FT) Mar 16, 2022
The drivers behind higher carbon prices seem unstoppable.

The EU must decide how to fund its Ukraine crisis response
Megan Greene (FT) Mar 16, 2022
Brussels can emerge more unified and resilient if it finds a way to pay for humanitarian relief, strengthened defences and the energy transition.

The anti-Putin geopolitical alliance will struggle to broaden its reach
Alan Beattie (FT) Mar 16, 2022
Sanctions and arms supplies to counter Russia's invasion are one thing, but running the world economy is quite another.

Russia's war will remake the world
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 16, 2022
The combination of conflict, supply shocks and high inflation is inevitably destabilising.

Jerome Powell, Inflation Fighter?
WSJ View Mar 16, 2022
Even 11 rate hikes in two years would leave real interest rates negative.

Waive the Jones Act to Get the Supply Chain Flowing Again
Timothy Fitzgerald and Kevin Hassett (WSJ) Mar 16, 2022
An exception in the law allows the Defense Department to let foreign-built ships to operate in U.S. waters for national-security reasons.

Asia pleads for the Fed to tighten, already
William Pesek (AT) Mar 16, 2022
For Asia, this week's widely anticipated Federal Reserve rate hike in Washington is the strangest of things: it's maybe the first time the region has welcomed tighter US monetary policy. It would be beyond shocking, economists agree, if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's team does not hike borrowing costs on Thursday.

US Fed won't stop inflation anytime soon
Jeffery S Bredthauer (AT) Mar 16, 2022
Most economists predict the Fed will raise interest rates by a quarter point on March 16, 2022, the first of many increases the US central bank is expected to make over the coming months. The challenge for the Fed is to do this without sending the economy into recession. But some economists and observers are already raising the specter of stagflation.

Tug of War: The Fed Begins a Rate?Hiking Cycle as Inflation Trumps Uncertainty
Allison Boxer (PIMCO) Mar 16, 2022
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised the policy rate at the March meeting and signaled more hikes to come given the risks from high inflation.

Fed gets a grip on 2022, still optimistic on 2023
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) Mar 16, 2022
The big news from the March 16 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC or Fed) was the release of new economic projections that showed the Fed's key policy interest rate rising to 2.8 percent by sometime next year. That is modestly above the estimated neutral rate of 2.4 percent and much higher than the previously projected peak of 2.1 percent in 2024. Given the persistence of elevated inflation and the strength of the US labor market, the Fed is right to aim for a rate above neutral, but it may need to go even further if it wants to get inflation all the way back to 2 percent.[1] As expected, the Fed started on the tightening path with a hike of 0.25 percentage point at this meeting.

War-Fueled Surge in Food Prices to Hit Poorer Nations Hardest
IMF Mar 16, 2022
Consumers in countries with lower incomes spend more on food and are most affected when those prices rise.

The Risks Are Growing But the Fed Should Press On
Bloomberg View Mar 16, 2022
The shocks keep coming and the central bank's job keeps getting harder — but the basic calculation hasn't changed.

Too-Big-to-Fail Risk Looms Over Commodities
Javier Blas (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 16, 2022
The giants who dominate global trade in raw materials confront unprecedented unpredictability.

The Fed Will Matter More to Investors Than Ukraine
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 16, 2022
For all its drama, the war doesn't show up — so far — as one of the biggest turning points of the pandemic era. Keep your eye on monetary policy.

Saudi Arabia's Oil-For-Yuan Bid Won't Threaten the Dollar
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 16, 2022
In an increasingly divided world it makes sense to look for a good alternative to the greenback. This isn't one of them.

Pricing Existential Risk
Willem H. Buiter (Project Syndicate) Mar 16, 2022
Just because there is no hedge for Armageddon doesn't mean that investors should ignore existential risk. Continued bullishness in the face of a heightened risk of nuclear war suggests that stock markets may now be in an apocalypse-denial bubble.

Why the Saudis Won't Pump More Oil
Bernard Haykel (Project Syndicate) Mar 16, 2022
Just as Saudi Arabia refused to accommodate American requests to increase oil production last November, it is likely to refuse US President Joe Biden's request today. When the Saudis increase their production, it will be because doing so is in their own interest.

Supply disruptions added to inflation undermined the recovery in 2021
Oya Celasun, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Mariano Spector, Aiko Mineshima, and Jing Zhou (VoxEU) Mar 16, 2022
The Covid-19 pandemic has led to strong increases in goods demand and concurrent supply disruptions to production and distribution. This column uses data from 30 countries to show that in 2021, supply shocks had a negative impact on manufacturing output, while demand shocks had a positive impact. In contrast, both contributed to higher manufacturing goods prices. Furthermore, there is substantial diversity in the magnitude of these effects across countries and sectors. Policymakers should seek to address specific supply bottlenecks and minimise the scarring from prolonged weakness to manufacturing activity.

The collapse of the Clean Development Mechanism
Kazunari Kainou (VoxEU) Mar 16, 2022
The Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol is the world's first international carbon finance scheme. Companies can acquire tradeable certified emission reduction credits by investing in energy conservation and new energy projects in developing countries. Despite its early success, the scheme collapsed following a 'carbon panic' in 2012. This column reviews the collapse of the mechanism and its spillovers on Paris Agreement negotiations. While the scheme was unexpectedly revived thanks to interest from the US and developing countries, carbon financing remains structurally prone to panic.

Gas Prices Could Keep Rising for Years
Robinson Meyer (Atlantic) Mar 16, 2022
The oil market is even weirder than it seems.

What's stopping us from targeting these 20,000 hyper-rich Russians? Western elites
Thomas Piketty (Guardian) Mar 16, 2022
Why has no progress been made on an international financial registry? One simple reason: wealthy westerners don't want one.

The Global South's Looming Debt Crisis—and How to Stop It
Mark Malloch-Brown (FP) Mar 16, 2022
Many poor countries face major economic disruption and possible default on their sovereign debt in 2022.

It's Only Phenomenal When It's Nominal, a Look at Real Retail Sales
Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery (WF Econ Group) Mar 16, 2022
Retail sales started the year strong, but since these figures are reported nominally, they need to be considered in the context of soaring inflation. We've constructed retail sales price deflators based on the Consumer Price Index for total retail sales and per retail category to get a cleaner read on the degree to which prices are driving sales gains.

The consequences of a Russian default
FT View Mar 17, 2022
Corporate debt is a bigger worry for market stability than sovereign borrowing.

Cash is king in uncertain times
John Redwood (FT) Mar 17, 2022
Investors should play safe in the face of war and inflation.

Why it's hard to size up the Russia hit to earnings
Cat Rutter Pooley (FT) Mar 17, 2022
Direct impact is small, but companies will have to say more about the war's indirect effects too.

This Is Why Autocracies Fail
David Brooks (NYT) Mar 17, 2022
Over the long term, centralized power is a recipe for stagnation.

Inflation vs. Recession: The Fed Is Walking a Tightrope
Jeff Sommer (NYT) Mar 17, 2022
American consumers already have high inflation. Because of the oil price shock and Russia's war, the odds of a recession have increased, too.

U.S. Shale Oil and Gas Are the Key to a Renewable Future
Christopher James (WSJ) Mar 17, 2022
The Permian Basin can be the cleanest hydrocarbon source in the world.

Fed and China stress-test world as rarely before
William Pesek (AT) Mar 17, 2022
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's team tightened for the first time in more than three years. Based on the Fed's language after the 25-basis-point increase, strategists like Jason Bloom at Invesco agree the US is now at the beginning of a seven-rate-hike cycle because it's "way behind the curve" on fighting inflation.

How high will the Fed have to go?
Tamim Bayoumi (OMFIF) Mar 17, 2022
On 16 March the Federal Open Markets Committee stuck to its policy of reversing stimulus only slowly in the face of a burst in inflation. The committee raised the target federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point and decided to keep its holdings of bonds at their current high levels until at least the next meeting. While the interest rate decision got most of the attention, the decision to maintain bonds at their current levels may be at least as important for future policy.

Pandemic's E-commerce Surge Proves Less Persistent, More Varied
Joel Alcedo, Alberto Cavallo, Bricklin Dwyer, Prachi Mishra, and Antonio Spilimbergo (IMF) Mar 17, 2022
Spikes in the share of online spending are dissipating overall, but there's significant variation by industry

How Biden Can Help the Fed Fight Inflation
Bloomberg View Mar 17, 2022
Energy prices are part of the problem, and smart use of oil reserves can make a difference.

The Fed and China Go to War Against Different Foes
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 17, 2022
One risks overreach to quash inflation, the other has launched an onslaught to shore up growth. The potential dangers — and bounty — could be immense.

Banks Are No Lifeline for Floundering Commodities Traders Now
Paul J. Davies (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 17, 2022
Lenders' hands are largely tied by rules imposed after the 2008 financial crisis.

The Fed Is Basically Just Guessing About Interest Rates
Allison Schrager (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 17, 2022
Shifting the economy into neutral without reversing into a recession requires knowing where neutral is.

Russia Is Too Small to Win
Paul De Grauwe (Project Syndicate) Mar 17, 2022
Russia's economy is one-tenth the size of the European Union's, and its military budget is just 8% of America's. That is not nearly enough to win a war against a country that is fighting Russian forces tooth and nail, let alone to occupy that country – and face a determined insurgency – for an indefinite period.

Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction
Raghuram G. Rajan (Project Syndicate) Mar 17, 2022
Because Russia's war against Ukraine could not go unpunished, the use of painful, sweeping economic sanctions is clearly justified. In the future, though, these powerful new tools will need to be subject to proper controls; otherwise, they could trigger a reversal of globalization – and of the prosperity that it has made possible.

Lose-Lose Trade Sanctions
Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg (Project Syndicate) Mar 17, 2022
Ruthless trade and financial sanctions against Russia may be morally satisfying for Western politicians and their constituents, but that doesn't mean they will be effective. In fact, the historical record suggests that such measures are often self-defeating and politically dangerous.

India's Size Illusion
Arvind Subramanian (Project Syndicate) Mar 17, 2022
India's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine is more a consequence of weakness than an expression of independence. For now, Indian policymakers should avoid succumbing to the illusion of size, and reconcile themselves with their country's current status as a middling power.

War in Ukraine: The financial defence
Yevhenii Skok and Oliver de Groot (VoxEU) Mar 17, 2022
The war in Ukraine is a humanitarian catastrophe, but how has the Ukrainian economy held up? This column examines the policies by the National Bank of Ukraine and the international financial community to maintain liquidity and financial stability in the country. It provides a brief monetary history of Ukraine, documents the policy actions of the past few weeks, and explores the challenges ahead.

Which States Have Capacity to Ramp up Oil Production?
Mark Vitner, Charlie Dougherty, and Patrick Barley (WF Econ Group) Mar 17, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine highlights lagging domestic oil production.

The End of Globalization?
Adam S. Posen (FA) Mar 17, 2022
What Russia's war in Ukraine means for the world economy.

Monetary policy in uncertain times
FT View Mar 18, 2022
Murky global economic outlook justifies gradual increase in interest rates.

Iran's finance minister: we need to change the course of our fiscal policy
Ehsan Khandouzi (FT) Mar 18, 2022
The current negotiations in Vienna could lead to positive economic outcomes for our country.

Timeless relevance of Markowitz's ideas for finance and investing
Arturo Cifuentes (FT) Mar 18, 2022
Renowned paper on portfolio selection published 70 years ago is still key to understanding risk and returns.

Russia says bond payments sent in default stand-off
Tommy Stubbington, Robin Wigglesworth, and Joshua Franklin (FT) Mar 18, 2022
Moscow claims western sanctions are forcing 'artificial default'.

China Inc unconvinced Xi Jinping's regulatory storm is over
Edward White, Ryan McMorrow, and Sun Yu (FT) Mar 18, 2022
Beijing's business elite wait to see if powerful agencies heed economy tsar's warning.

Is China uninvestable, redux
Robert Armstrong (FT) Mar 18, 2022
Xi has backed off, for now.

What would a good immigration policy look like?
Stephen Bush (FT) Mar 18, 2022
While all border policies are unhappy in their own way, they aren't all equally misery-inducing or economically harmful.

China's Next Contagion?
WSJ View Mar 18, 2022
Beijing's zero-Covid strategy threatens the global economy.

What Real Economic Warfare Looked Like
Nicholas A. Lambert (WSJ) Mar 18, 2022
Sanctions against Russia over Ukraine are mild compared with Britain's effort against Germany before World War I.

From Russia, will US expand economic war to China?
Chen Feng (AT) Mar 18, 2022
Russia's military action is aimed at winning space for its security, while the US economic policy is aimed at destroying the Russian economy as a way to trigger regime change and even dismantle Russia. This could become the first of a new kind of asymmetric world war, in which China's role is particularly noteworthy.

Inflation could wreak vengeance on the world's poor
Indermit Gill and Peter Nagle (Brookings) Mar 18, 2022
Inflation has returned, and it is wreaking havoc. Surging economic activity, supply-chain disruptions, and soaring commodity prices combined in 2021 to push global inflation to its highest level since 2008 (Figure 1). Among emerging market and developing economies, inflation reached its highest level since 2011. It now exceeds inflation targets in more than half of these economies with an inflation-targeting framework.

Price Spike Caused by Ukraine War Will Push Over 40 Million into Poverty: How Should We Respond?
Ian Mitchell, Sam Hughes and Samuel Huckstep (CGD) Mar 18, 2022
With all eyes on the conflict, policymakers at the G20 and beyond must be alive to the wider consequences, and act accordingly.

Commodity Traders Make Record Profits — And Now Want a Bailout
Javier Blas (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 18, 2022
Consultant Oliver Wyman's report estimates the industry generated $61 billion in profit last year. This year traders have asked for help amid crushing volatility.

Bond Yield Curve Isn't Flashing a Recession Signal Yet
Robert Burgess (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 18, 2022
The gap between three-month Treasury bills and 10-year notes — the key part for forecasting recessions — is showing no signs of distress.

Has the Fed Given Up on Fighting Inflation?
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 18, 2022
It's doing exactly the opposite of what's needed to get prices under control.

It's Not the Fed's Job to Stop Supply-Side Inflation
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 18, 2022
Central bankers should take responsibility for curbing excessive spending. But suppressing demand to fight a scarcity of goods would backfire on the U.S. economy.

These Russia Sanctions Are Different
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Mar 18, 2022
The multilateral sanctions imposed on Russia since the invasion of Ukraine will severely reduce Russians' standard of living and their country's geopolitical leverage. If the Kremlin had an ounce of sense, it would see the eventual outcome now, and call off its unprovoked war.

Preparing Europe's Economy for War
Lucrezia Reichlin (Project Syndicate) Mar 18, 2022
In response to the Ukraine war, European leaders have pledged to build shared capacity for defense and foreign policy. But, on this point, the historical record is clear: Building a common defense capacity will require the EU to build shared economic capacity.

Corporate legacy debt, inflation, and the efficacy of monetary policy
Charles Goodhart, Udara Peiris, Dimitri Tsomocos, and Xuan Wang (VoxEU) Mar 18, 2022
The COVID-19 pandemic has coincided with a further rapid increase in corporate indebtedness. This column argues that high levels of corporate debt may distort the transmission of monetary policy and make contractionary monetary policy less effective in controlling inflation. Consequently, the trade-off between inflation stabilisation and output stabilisation becomes more problematic when there is a large volume of corporate debt in the economy.

The New Economic Containment
Carla Norrlöf (FA) Mar 18, 2022
Russian sanctions signal commitment to international order.

Markets rally as the bad news keeps rolling in
Katie Martin (FT) Mar 19, 2022
Strong week for equities as investors look past Ukraine war, China's Covid outbreak and Fed rate rise.

Boom in ESG ratings leaves trail of confusion
Alan Livsey (FT) Mar 19, 2022
With so many providers and methods, it can be difficult to draw meaning from rankings.

Confronting Russia shows the tension between free trade and freedom
Economist Mar 19, 2022
Liberal governments need to find a new path that combines openness and security.

Russia's war is creating corporate winners and losers
Economist Mar 19, 2022
As well as enormous volatility.

Will China's covid lockdowns add to strains on supply chains?
Economist Mar 19, 2022
The government's fight against the disease has extended to Shanghai and Shenzhen.

The ascent of crypto assets: Evolution and macro-financial drivers
Erik Feyen, Yusaku Kawashima, and Raunak Mittal (VoxEU) Mar 19, 2022
Crypto-asset holdings and transaction volumes have grown rapidly around the world, and crypto assets are increasingly regarded as an emerging asset class. This column finds that transaction volumes across countries appear to be driven by globally relevant factors such as US longer-term inflation expectations, US real Treasury yields, and gold and crypto-asset prices, rather than recent country-level macroeconomic developments. Volumes also tend to be higher in countries with higher information and communications technology penetration and greater reliance on remittances.

Chinese market rally disguises concerns over deglobalisation
Leo Lewis (FT) Mar 20, 2022
Many investors applaud Beijing's confidence-boosting measures but fret about the risk of decoupling.

Food price rises are inevitable as sanctions bite
Karen Betts (FT) Mar 20, 2022
UK consumers will face shortages and even higher bills unless ministers help the food and drink industry control costs.

Ignore the naysayers. Dollar dominance is here to stay.
Sebastian Mallaby (WaPo) Mar 20, 2022
Expect the dollar to remain the global reserve currency for the foreseeable future.

Oil's Not at $200. But It's Pricey Enough for Asia
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 20, 2022
Stagflation remains a threat because many countries budgeted crude costs very much lower. And then there's China.

Cutting Oil Demand Would Hurt Russia and Ease a Supply Crisis
Julian Lee (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 20, 2022
Getting people to use less fuel will make it easier to both impose tough sanctions on Russia and withstand a supply disruption.

Carbon pricing and cross-border carbon leakage with international transport
Keisaku Higashida, Jota Ishikawa, and Nori Tarui (VoxEU) Mar 20, 2022
Existing studies of the impact of carbon pricing on carbon emissions typically ignore the role played by international transportation. This column provides a framework to assess the importance of this sector for carbon leakage across borders and across sectors. The authors identify the importance of asymmetric trade volumes on shipping routes, and the interplay between transportation costs and foreign direct investment choices, in determining the amount of carbon leakage. This shows the need to understand the market environment when designing carbon pricing policies.

For lessons on fighting inflation, skip Volcker and remember 1946
Scott Minerd (FT) Mar 21, 2022
How the Federal Reserve was able to rein in a spike in prices triggered by postwar pent-up demand.

America's Economy in the European Mirror
Paul Krugman (NYT) Mar 21, 2022
What spiking inflation Over There tells us about policy here.

Xi may be losing tolerance for a strong yuan
William Pesek (AT) Mar 21, 2022
Chinese President Xi Jinping is having a be-careful-what-you-wish-for moment as a rising yuan threatens his ability to achieve a 5.5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for 2022. On Friday, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) took an abnormally bold step to weaken exchange rates through the currency fixings process.

Russia sanctions, the renminbi and the dollar's future
Mark Sobel (OMFIF) Mar 21, 2022
The dollar's global dominance remains well entrenched. Yet every ripple in international finance engenders a tedious new round of chatter – will the dollar lose its dominant status? With the imposition of severe financial sanctions on Russia, rumblings that China will provide Russia a lifeline and rumours Saudi Arabia will denominate oil prices in renminbi, markets are once again abuzz about the dollar's future global financing role.

Cryptocurrency failing to take advantage of crisis
Philip Middleton (OMFIF) Mar 21, 2022
In Russia's assault upon Ukraine, some cryptocurrency enthusiasts have declared this is a chance for crypto to prove its worth and the scales to fall from the eyes of sceptics and reluctant governments. But in circumstances which could have been tailor-made as a test bed for cryptocurrencies, like Arthur Conan Doyle's hound, crypto has largely failed to bark. For each of the three crypto tribes – the true believers, speculators and pragmatists – this is disconcerting.

The Fed's Actions Don't Match Powell's Words
Clive Crook (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 21, 2022
The central bank was right to raise interest rates, but the chairman's explanation is puzzling.

The Fed Needs a Boring Bank Regulator
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 21, 2022
Instead of another Sarah Bloom Raskin, Biden should nominate an apolitical Fed staffer.

Will China's "Common Prosperity" Survive Putin's War?
George Magnus (Project Syndicate) Mar 21, 2022
Chinese President Xi Jinping's "common prosperity" campaign takes aim at the market-oriented policies that have enabled China's rise. At a time when COVID-19 border controls and perceived complicity in Russia's aggression are already threatening to isolate China, the risks of pursuing such a campaign should not be underestimated.

Multilateralism after the Ukraine invasion
Dennis Snower (VoxEU) Mar 21, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine appears to have laid the old world order to rest. This column argues that we now stand at a crossroads. To guide us to a Benign Anthropocene that mobilises a transnational collective spirit for addressing the major global problems of our time – instead of a Toxic Anthropocene marked by deglobalisation, a collapse of global collective action, retreat into nationalisms, environmental collapse, and the rising danger of large wars – we need to ensure that the narratives underlying our actions are constructive, rather than destructive.

Major future economic challenges
Olivier Blanchard and Jean Tirole (VoxEU) Mar 21, 2022
A report generated by a commission of 24 distinguished economists focuses on three structural challenges for the global economy. The column sets out some of the conclusions. While the challenges of climate change, inequality and demographic change are significant, solutions – though sometimes expensive or unpalatable – exist.

ECB must contend with the uncertainties of war
FT View Mar 22, 2022
Effects of conflict in Ukraine will require a flexible stance.

Putin's war threatens millions with hunger
FT View Mar 22, 2022
The poorest must be protected against the impact of rising food costs.

US ruling on bond ETFs raises a market risk
Tatjana Puhan (FT) Mar 22, 2022
More inflows into passive funds could exacerbate selling of certain assets in times of crisis.

Republican stance on free markets is shifting when it comes to China
Oren Cass (FT) Mar 22, 2022
Despite the priority traditionally given to the free flow of capital, many now argue that Beijing should be the exception.

Pakistan: Imran Khan and the politics of inflation
Benjamin Parkin and Farhan Bokhari (FT) Mar 22, 2022
Will the prime minister survive a vote of no confidence over his management of the economy at a time when Pakistanis face crippling price rises?

How Cryptocurrency Is Helping Ukraine
Illia Polosukhin (WSJ) Mar 23, 2022
It's a godsend in a country that needs money and lacks functioning banks.

Fuel price hike raises India stagflation risk
KS Kumar (AT) Mar 22, 2022
Gasoline and diesel prices have risen in India after a four-month freeze. Fuel prices were put on hold on November 4 last year ahead of elections in five states. India imports nearly 85% of its fuel needs and spiraling global crude prices spiked by the Ukraine crisis are now forcing fuel retailers to pass on the higher prices to consumers.

No More IMF Subsidies for Dictators
John Kennedy (WSJ) Mar 22, 2022
Biden and Yellen pushed to give Russia $17 billion while troops gathered on Ukraine's border.

When will China become a high-income country?
Justin Yifu Lin (AT) Mar 22, 2022
Crossing the threshold will be an important milestone in China's great rejuvenation.

Russia's economy may be much smaller than reported
Miroslav Singer (OMFIF) Mar 22, 2022
Many famous acts of aggression are motivated by the need to divert the attention of citizens away from domestic economic problems. So in that sense, Kremlin aggression in Ukraine was unexpected, given that Russia's economy appeared to be successfully overcoming the pandemic, having regained its pre-Covid-19 level by mid-2021. However, official Russian gross domestic product may be severely overestimated.

Central Bank Predictability and Sloth Have Their Costs
Richard Cookson (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 22, 2022
It was no accident that the autopilot nature of interest rate increases between mid-2004 and mid-2006 was followed by the global financial crisis.

Steel Is the Other Big Commodity Shock from the War in Ukraine
Javier Blas (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 21, 2022
Europe needs to wake up to the nascent steel crisis. Price spikes and potential shortages could ripple across the global economy.

Clearing Houses Have Become Too Big to Ignore
Marc Rubinstein (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 21, 2022
The institutions are a useful stalwart against counterparty risk, but the concern now is liquidity risk that they may not be able to prevent.

Markets Are Pushing Fed Into Developing-Economy Territory
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 22, 2022
Its credibility eroded, the central bank appears to have a choice between risking a recession or prolonging inflation.

Beware the Bear Trap Disguised as a Stock Rally
Jonathan Levin (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 22, 2022
Short-term rebounds are common at the start of a persistent down market.

From Sanctions to Semiconductor Resilience and Security
Laura Tyson and John Zysman (Project Syndicate) Mar 22, 2022
Russia's war in Ukraine has highlighted the vulnerability of sprawling supply chains and underscored the importance of key technological inputs like semiconductors. With much of the world united in holding Russia to account, the moment is perfect for deepening multilateral collaboration in strategically vital industries.

Economics and politics of measures to stop financing Russian aggression against Ukraine
Eric Chaney, Christian Gollier, Thomas Philippon, and Richard Portes (VoxEU) Mar 22, 2022
The financial and economic sanctions so far imposed on Russia to force it to end its invasion of Ukraine have not yet had the desired impact. This column argues that cutting off the financing of the Russian aggression is essential and requires immediately banning imports of Russian oil and taxing imports of Russian gas, while cushioning the shock of these measures on households, especially those with low incomes.

China's Omicron Lockdowns Mean More Supply Chain Pain
Elisabeth Braw (FP) Mar 22, 2022
A globalized world is vulnerable to local disasters.

Putin's war demands a concerted global economic response
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 23, 2022
Countries will have to use their fiscal resources to look after refugees and offset the impact of rising food prices on the poorest.

Act now to prevent a new sovereign debt crisis in the developing world
William Rhodes and John Lipsky (FT) Mar 23, 2022
The economic impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine will be felt most in low-income countries.

Global food crisis is the prisoners' dilemma of trade
Alan Beattie (FT) Mar 23, 2022
It is in everyone's interest to keep exports flowing, but no one wants to run short by being the only country that does.

Foreign businesses in China need to heed the lessons of Russian exodus
Peggy Hollinger (FT) Mar 23, 2022
Consequences of action like the Ukraine invasion can play out at a speed and scale few have imagined possible.

Hearing out the China bulls
Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu (FT) Mar 23, 2022
And can an inverted yield curve cause a recession?

Biden is right to remove tariffs on British metals but should keep other tariffs in place
Henry Olsen (WaPo) Mar 23, 2022
The president should treat free international trade as just one element of statecraft.

China making moves to reverse trillion-dollar market rout
William Pesek (AT) Mar 23, 2022
As headwinds complicate China's 5.5% economic growth target and stir concerns among policymakers, President Xi Jinping's government is signaling a throttling back of its giant tech crackdown, support for traumatized sectors and a revival of the initial public offering (IPO) game to reinvigorate Asia's biggest economy.

The West's Russia Sanctions Show Why States Want to Weaponize the Financial System
Mitch Nemeth (Mises Wire) Mar 23, 2022
States continue to seek new ways to make the financial system an "economic chokepoint" enabling the state to crack down on specific organizations, individuals, or activities.

Poor and Vulnerable Countries Need Support to Adapt to Climate Change
Kristalina Georgieva, Vitor Gaspar and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu (IMF) Mar 23, 2022
The poorest countries face the greatest risks from climate change and require international support to finance adaptation.

War has shattered illusions of the West
Meghnad Desai (OMFIF) Mar 23, 2022
The three-week-old war that Vladimir Putin has waged against Ukraine has shattered the illusions on which the entire architecture of the post-1945 western order has been based. There are at least three such illusions: the democratic power of the United Nations, universal peace in Europe and the US belief that it was the world's sole superpower following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Now's the Time for a U.S.-EU Trade Deal
Bloomberg View Mar 23, 2022
High-level meetings in Europe this week will focus on security. But the timing may never be better to restart trade talks.

The Fed Isn't at the Mercy of the Yield Curve
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 23, 2022
The U.S. central bank can steer long-dated Treasury yields as well as short-term rates.

Consumer Despair Is Probably Worse Than We Realize
Jared Dillian (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 23, 2022
Prices of hard assets are rising fast and financial assets are dropping, ratcheting up the misery.

Russia Exploits Two Big Holes in Financial Sanctions
Paul J. Davies (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 23, 2022
The country can sell all the fossil fuels it likes and use the earnings to support the ruble or import the tools of war.

An Intriguing Safe Haven in the Middle of War and Pandemic
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 23, 2022
The bond market selloff has exposed the shortcomings of U.S. Treasuries. But would you put your money in China instead?

Is a New Global Recession the Price for Punishing Putin?
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 23, 2022
We are still getting over the last global downturn. That hasn't stopped the re-emergence of the R-word.

The World Must Avoid Another Food Crisis
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Project Syndicate) Mar 23, 2022
It is becoming clear that the Ukraine war's economic and humanitarian repercussions – especially rising food prices – will be felt far beyond Europe. The international community must act now to prevent some of the world's poorest and most vulnerable people from becoming collateral damage.

Rebuilding the Foundation for Peaceful Progress
Dennis J. Snower (Project Syndicate) Mar 23, 2022
The structures supporting the global economy and the international political order are buckling under the pressure of pandemics, climate disaster, and war. To prevent a further unraveling, political leaders must update the old models of threat containment, multilateralism, and globalization.

The pendulum of globalisation is swinging back
Howard Marks (FT) Mar 24, 2022
Onshoring is on the rise as companies and countries seek greater supply security amid geopolitical tensions.

The world needs to come clean about dirty money
Gillian Tett (FT) Mar 24, 2022
Abramovich's $50mn Aspen villa is apparently listed in his own name. That makes it a rarity among oligarchs' assets.

We are living in an era of global fragility
Simon Kuper (FT) Mar 24, 2022
Today's world is like a giant train set. If any piece of track malfunctions, the global train can derail.

Is America's Economy Entering a New Normal?
Jeanna Smialek (NYT) Mar 24, 2022
Policymakers are wrestling with the reality that the pandemic may mark a turning point in the nation's economic plot.

Putin May Fear Default More Than Defeat in Ukraine
Judy Shelton (WSJ) Mar 24, 2022
Russia's 1998 financial collapse looms large in his thinking and may explain why the country is still paying interest on its debt.

India-Russia currency swaps bypass US sanctions
David P. Goldman (AT) Mar 24, 2022
India and Russia will have currency swaps in place to finance trade in rupees and rubles, bypassing the US sanctions regime against Russia, the president of India's export association recently told CNBC. Several of India's state-owned banks will reportedly execute the swaps under the supervision of the Reserve Bank of India, starting as early as next week.

Central bankers will become heroes by retreating from inflation fray
David Marsh (OMFIF) Mar 24, 2022
Central bankers look ready to retreat from a frontal assault on inflation – stepping diplomatically away from the purest interpretation of their mandates. Far from attracting opprobrium, they will gain popularity. Experts have long predicted that the age of independent central banks is over. Bowing to political pressures to keep interest rates under control is one way of losing independence – and is a lot less painful than forcing up rates and living with the consequences.

Personal Income Tax Has Untapped Potential in Poorer Countries
Dora Benedek, Juan Carlos Benítez, and Charles Vellutini (IMF) Mar 24, 2022
Developing countries have shown remarkable progress in using the personal income tax.

All That's Stopping a Full-Blown Food Crisis? Rice
Javier Blas (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 24, 2022
Prices of the staple diet of half the world's population remain subdued, thankfully.

Heard of the 'Fed Put'? Powell May Be Selling Calls
Jonathan Levin (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 24, 2022
Stock investors have been conditioned to expect central bank support. They could be in for a shock.

Putin and Xi Exposed the Great Illusion of Capitalism
John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 24, 2022
Unless the U.S. and its allies mobilize to save it, the second great age of globalization is coming to a catastrophic close.

The Bond Market Is the One Behind the Curve Now
Jenny Paris (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 24, 2022
Traders are wrong if they doubt the Federal Reserve's newfound resolve to do whatever it takes to get inflation under control.

ESG Means No More Buying the World a Coke
Allison Schrager (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 24, 2022
The stampede of companies out of Russia marks a major change in global capitalism that may not be for the better.

Will Sanctioning Russia Fuel Financial Contagion?
Hippolyte Fofack (Project Syndicate) Mar 24, 2022
The unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia have exacerbated global economic uncertainty and potentially derailed the post-pandemic recovery. The world, still grappling with the fallout from the US-China trade war and COVID-19, now faces its third policy-induced economic crisis in quick succession.

Russia Must Pay Reparations
Anders Aslund (Project Syndicate) Mar 24, 2022
Vladimir Putin's war of aggression in Ukraine offers ample grounds for G7 countries to seize Russian assets within their jurisdictions to finance postwar reconstruction. These funds should be administered through a new multilateral body to ensure full transparency and sound public procurement.

How to Use Economic Sanctions Wisely
Anne O. Krueger (Project Syndicate) Mar 24, 2022
Given the horrors of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the public's support for sanctions has been strong. But, before tightening sanctions further or imposing them indefinitely, Western powers should consider the broader risks to the global economy and the international trade and financial system.

Is Japan at Risk of a Downgrade?
Jinho Choi and Kimi Xu Jiang (Project Syndicate) Mar 24, 2022
The COVID-19 pandemic and now Russia's invasion of Ukraine have greatly increased the risks to the global economy. The task for Japanese policymakers is to navigate these challenges while pursuing fiscal consolidation in order to protect the country's sovereign credit rating.

Bust to Boom...And Back Again?
Brendan McKenna (WF Econ Group) Mar 24, 2022
Latin American currencies have been notable outperformers in 2022. The sharp rise in commodity prices has benefited Latin America the most, while monetary policy trends and a modest reduction in political risk has also contributed to regionwide currency strength. However, we believe the rally in Latin American currencies may be overdone, and that current exchange rates do not reflect future political risks, particularly in countries such as Chile, Colombia and Brazil. In our view, current levels could represent attractive entry points to purchase U.S. dollars against Latin American currencies, as we expect regional currencies to reverse course and weaken over the medium to longer term.

The hidden risks of rising rates and high house prices
FT View Mar 25, 2022
Property market trouble could exacerbate other economic headwinds.

Market calm shows that wartime doesn't mean volatility
Gillian Tett (FT) Mar 25, 2022
Traders are learning from history that it is foolish to assume conflicts are bad for stock prices. s

Rallying Chinese markets will not be a quick fix for Beijing
Alicia García-Herrero (FT) Mar 25, 2022
Top official makes rare intervention to reassure investors but progress to resolve problems will be difficult.

Farm commodities — gamble or hedge?
Stefan Wagstyl (FT) Mar 25, 2022
Inflation and war have boosted prices, highlighting investment opportunities.

Economic warfare and Mançur Olson: Insights for great power conflict
Mark Harrison (VoxEU) Mar 25, 2022
Economic warfare, including blockades of essential goods and bombings of industry, was widely used in WWII but with limited impact. This column explores Mançur Olson's explanation, which is underpinned by the elementary economic concept of substitution. Olson argued that there are no essential goods; there are only essential uses, which can generally be supplied in many ways. This has sweeping implications for the use of economic sanctions, which can be applied to the present context of Russia's aggression against Ukraine.

The Fed Bets on a 'Soft Landing,' but Recession Risk Looms
Jeanna Smialek (NYT) Mar 25, 2022
Central bankers have been clear that they will do what it takes to control inflation. They are betting on a soft landing, but a bumpy one is possible.

Bad Tidings From the Bond Market
Jeff Sommer (NYT) Mar 25, 2022
The usually sedate bond market has been unsettled by worries about inflation, the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases and even the possibility of a recession.

The U.S. Needs to Take a Chance on Trade With Asia
Bloomberg View Mar 25, 2022
With Europe drawing more attention and resources, countries in the Indo-Pacific want to see a real commitment to economic engagement from Washington.

The Bond Market Losing $2.6 Trillion Is Actually Good News
Aaron Brown (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 25, 2022
For the vast majority of fixed-income investors, the opportunity to capture higher yields offsets any unrealized losses.

Fight Inflation with Supply-Side Labor Reform
Todd G. Buchholz and Michael Mindlin (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2022
Given that a shortage of workers is a major source of today's surging inflation in the United States, policymakers should be devising a strategy to increase the active labor force. The right approach would both draw in older and younger non-workers and attack the epidemic of occupational licensing and credentialism.

The Ukraine War Is Reshaping Development
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2022
However the conflict in Eastern Europe unfolds, it seems clear that countries will have to give national security a far more prominent position in their development agendas. This means not only increasing defense spending, but also diversifying energy and food sources – and preparing for global economic fragmentation.

America's Macroeconomic Outlook
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2022
Given the depth of the recession caused by COVID-19 in early 2020, the current state of the US economy and labor market is nothing short of spectacular. And though an inevitable increase in inflation has rained on the parade, there is still good reason to think that it will subside in the medium term.

Sovereign defaults in domestic law debt: A new database
Aitor Erce, Enrico Mallucci, and Mattia Picarelli (VoxEU) Mar 25, 2022
The debt jurisdiction affects a government's ability to restructure its debt, is key to shaping the restructuring process, and affects the timing and conditions of market access. This column introduces a new database that codes sovereign defaults according to the legal jurisdiction governing the debt instruments. The database offers an overview of the last four decades of sovereign default on debt governed domestically. These data can be useful both for theorists in the need to calibrate their quantitative models and for policymakers facing the consequences of the pandemic.

Will Pakistan's Inflation Crisis Bring Down Imran Khan?
Hajira Maryam (FP) Mar 25, 2022
Political instability looms as the opposition brings a no-confidence vote against the prime minister.

The Great Escape: Will the Fed Be Able to Wring Out Inflation Without a Recession?
Sarah House, Michael Pugliese, and Azhar Iqbal (WF Econ Group) Mar 25, 2022
Is it possible for the FOMC to pull off a soft landing, where inflation comes down materially but economic growth and the labor market are largely unharmed? The U.S economy is not in immediate danger of entering a recession, in our view. However, today's environment leads us to believe that farther out, the odds of the U.S. economy contracting are elevated.

IMF and Argentina finalise new $44bn programme
Lucinda Elliott (FT) Mar 26, 2022
Deal buys time for government but experts see another potential crisis around the corner.

Bond market buckles to the inevitability of rate rises
Katie Martin (FT) Mar 26, 2022
March is shaping up to be the worst month for US Treasuries since at least 2016.

Who's Buying Russian Stocks?
Stephen Gandel and Jason Karaian (NYT) Mar 26, 2022
Trading has resumed after the market closed for a month, but it's not business as usual.

Guyana's tiny population braces for a gusher of petrodollars
Economist Mar 26, 2022
Other countries blessed with oil have not always made good use of it.

Why energy insecurity is here to stay
Economist Mar 26, 2022
The war will speed the shift from petrostates to new electrostates.

The transition to clean energy will mint new commodity superpowers
Economist Mar 26, 2022
We look at who wins and loses.

In search of a WTO-compatible Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
Cecilia Bellora and Lionel Fontagné (VoxEU) Mar 26, 2022
The proposed European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism seeks to curb carbon leakage, which undermines the EU's ambitious goal of climate neutrality by 2050. This column explores whether the mechanism succeed in reducing carbon leakage, while at the same time restoring a level playing field for EU producers and minimising the likelihood of WTO panels or retaliation by trading partners. The authors argue that the mechanism will significantly curb European carbon leakages, but at a cost. EU member states will need at the very least to agree on how to end free allowances to be compatible with the WTO.

Fertiliser inflation presages a global food supply crisis
Rana Foroohar (FT) Mar 27, 2022
The effect of price rises could be exacerbated by excessive concentration in the sector.

G20 and RCEP key to powering global recovery and development
Mari Pangestu and Lili Yan Ing (EAF) Mar 27, 2022
RCEP and the G20 have key roles to play in recovery of the global economy and navigating geopolitical conflict.

Ukraine war accelerates the stealth erosion of dollar dominance
Barry Eichengreen (FT) Mar 28, 2022
Central banks are diversifying reserves beyond the US currency, euro and renminbi.

China is less likely to back Russia while facing troubles of its own
Ruchir Sharma (FT) Mar 28, 2022
Systemic risk in the property sector and early signs of Japanification threaten both its economy and alliances.

Sanctions and rationing: the next shock for companies
Andrew Hill (FT) Mar 28, 2022
Managers are being tested again, but the pandemic offers a template for survival.

India's beleaguered liberals are failing to defend principle
Arvind Subramanian (WaPo) Mar 28, 2022
The bells may be tolling for the demise on many fronts — security, economics and politics — of Indian liberalism.

How Soaring Shipping Costs Raise Prices Around the World
Yan Carrière-Swallow, Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri , Daniel Jiménez and Jonathan D. Ostry (IMF) Mar 28, 2022
The sea carries more than 80 percent of the world's traded goods, most of which sail inside 40-foot-long steel containers stacked by the thousands atop some of the largest vessels ever built.

The Yen's Plunge Is a Dilemma of Japan's Own Making
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 28, 2022
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has extolled the virtues of a weaker currency. Consumers will pay the price.

The Ultimate Antifragile City Is Losing Its DNA
Matthew Brooker (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 28, 2022
Hong Kong's top-down Covid policies are undermining its tradition of individual resilience and adaptability.

Germany's Energy Fiasco
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) Mar 28, 2022
In both the short and the long term, Germany will be unable to end Russian gas imports without triggering economic chaos, public outrage, and opposition from many firms. For this, years of misguided energy strategy must bear much of the blame.

Startup Culture Goes Global
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Mar 28, 2022
The digital domain has provided fertile ground for innovation around the world, enabling the rise of fast-growing firms from Helsinki to Abuja. But even as the internet has greatly reduced geographical limitations to doing business, highly interactive local networks continue to form the core of entrepreneurial ecosystems.

Residential inflation: The rise in the pipeline
Marijn Bolhuis, Judd N. L. Cramer, and Lawrence H. Summers (VoxEU) Mar 28, 2022
Many believe that the current elevated inflation in the US will subside as a range of factors associated with bottlenecks in the goods sector are alleviated. This column argues that the way that residential services inflation is measured and the characteristics of the housing market kept inflation down in 2021 despite large increases in real-time private sector measures. These past increases ensure an uptick in recorded housing inflation in 2022. The authors project that that residential inflation will peak in late 2022, but it will remain elevated in 2023 and that this could make a substantial contribution to overall inflation.

Measuring the role of human capital for structural transformation
Tommaso Porzio and Federico Rossi (VoxEU) Mar 28, 2022
Traditional theories explain structural transformation by the decline in the relative demand for agricultural labour over the last two centuries. This column focuses on the 'human side' and argues that the relative supply of labour is another important driver. Using data for 52 countries, it shows that an increase in schooling led to a sharp reduction in the agricultural labour supply by equipping younger cohorts with skills more valued outside of agriculture and making them be less willing to stay on the farm. Governments might consider educational policies to accelerate the process of structural transformation, and thus economic development.

Human capital growth: An engine for structural transformation
Tommaso Porzio and Federico Rossi (VoxDev) Mar 28, 2022
Growth in human capital reduces agricultural labour supply, while in turn the expansion of non-agricultural sectors drives human capital growth.

Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?
Òscar Jordà, Celeste Liu, Fernanda Nechio, and Fabián Rivera-Reyes (FRBSF Econ Letter) Mar 28, 2022
Inflation rates in the United States and other developed economies have closely tracked each other historically. Problems with global supply chains and changes in spending patterns due to the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed up inflation worldwide. However, since the first half of 2021, U.S. inflation has increasingly outpaced inflation in other developed countries. Estimates suggest that fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severity of the pandemic's economic effect may have contributed to this divergence by raising inflation about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021.

How Corporate Boycotts Could Backfire
Elisabeth Braw (FP) Mar 28, 2022
Activists seeking to shame companies doing business in Russia should be consistent in their moralism—and consider the consequences if Chinese consumers decide to punish the West.

A new world of currency disorder looms
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 29, 2022
The Chinese renminbi can be a challenger to the US dollar, but it won't replace it.

Ukraine war will increase poverty in developing economies, warns World Bank
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Mar 29, 2022
Conflict's disruption to trade threatens a debt crisis in dozens of low- and middle-income countries.

How sanctions on Russian energy exports could work
Pierre Andurand (FT) Mar 29, 2022
The options for the west for reducing revenues for Moscow while minimising the impact on oil flows.

Russia investors should put morals ahead of profiteering
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Mar 29, 2022
For sanctions to bite hard, there can be no compromise in economic measures to counter Ukraine invasion.

What's Down With the Yen?
WSJ View Mar 29, 2022
The Bank of Japan pays a price for falling out of sync with its peers.

How Inflation Raises Your Taxes
William F. Ford and Daniel J. Smith (WSJ) Mar 29, 2022
Dollars don't go as far as they used to, while the government takes more of them.

The flat US yield curve doesn't forecast recession
David P. Goldman (AT) Mar 29, 2022
Consumers might balk at higher prices and stop spending, and the Fed's gradual squeeze on interest rates might pop the US housing bubble. There are some signs of squishiness in consumer spending. The widely followed University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index has fallen almost to the 2008 recession lows.

A half-a-trillion-dollar bet on revolutionising white-collar work
Economist Mar 29, 2022
Digitisation of everything, cloud computing and hybrid working is fuelling a boom in Indian IT consulting.

Can liberalizing trade reduce US CPI inflation? Insights from an economywide analysis
Sherman Robinson and Karen Thierfelder (PIIE) Mar 29, 2022
Tariffs raise the prices of imports in domestic markets. In theory, reducing tariffs should therefore reduce prices. At a time of mounting public concern over US inflation, the empirical question is how much would removal of tariffs imposed in the trade wars of the last five years reduce prices or slow inflation. Prices in the United States have increased over the past two years due to a complex mix of transitory shocks in various markets for goods and services and macroeconomic forces leading to excess aggregate demand. Dealing with the transitory shocks requires policies that focus on commodity markets. In this environment, trade policy, which directly affects commodity prices, can play a role in reducing inflation.

Is the private sector retreating in China? Not among its largest companies
Tianlei Huang and Nicolas Véron (PIIE) Mar 29, 2022
China's wave of regulatory restrictions on private-sector businesses in 2021 has been widely interpreted as reflecting a decisive turn, driven by President Xi Jinping for several years, toward a new economic regime with a greater role played by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). But is China's private sector truly being crushed? Evidence presented in a new PIIE Working Paper tells a different story—that among China's largest companies, the private sector is expanding rapidly and at a faster rate than SOEs.

For inflation relief, the United States should look to trade liberalization
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Megan Hogan, and Yilin Wang (PIIE) Mar 29, 2022
With US inflation running at 40-year high rates, the Federal Reserve is signaling more interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023. President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has also vowed to act against what he calls anticompetitive behavior by corporations. But policymakers are overlooking one set of actions that could make a meaningful contribution to taming inflation: trade liberalization. The data cited in this Policy Brief indicate that a feasible package of liberalization could deliver a one-time reduction in consumer price index (CPI) inflation of around 1.3 percentage points, amounting to $797 per US household, about half the size of pandemic relief in 2021. As a bonus, the embrace of trade liberalization would curb inflationary expectations taking hold in American firms now protected by trade barriers from foreign competition.

The Fed Has Made a U.S. Recession Inevitable
William C Dudley (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 29, 2022
Jerome Powell is far too optimistic about the chances of a soft landing.

How Will Oil Markets Cope Without China's Demand?
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 29, 2022
Shanghai's lockdown has sent prices tumbling, but it would be a mistake to think the pandemic is the only factor.

Financial Sanctions Call for a New Bretton Woods Framework
Karen D Shaw Petrou (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 29, 2022
The next iteration of the global financial order would benefit from a base of core democratic values.

Don't Fear the Inverted Yield Curve
Jessica Karl (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 29, 2022
It might really be different this time.

How Will Oil Markets Cope Without China's Demand?
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 29, 2022
Shanghai's lockdown has sent prices tumbling, but it would be a mistake to think the pandemic is the only factor.

Replace Russian Oil and Gas with Renewables
Helen Clark, Dan Smith, and Margot Wallström ( Mar 29, 2022
The West's rejection of Russian fossil fuels following the Kremlin-ordered invasion of Ukraine has a clear rationale. But wrong choices now – specifically, not switching quickly to renewable energy – could jeopardize future peace.

The New Art of Economic Warfare
Kaushik Basu (Project Syndicate) Mar 29, 2022
Western governments need to use all the data and information available to them to analyze the efficacy of their unprecedented sanctions against Russia. Whatever the outcome, it is already clear that the world needs to introduce some rules to govern such nonviolent weapons before the next great-power conflict erupts.

Crunch Time for Europe's Economic Sanctions
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Mar 29, 2022
Virtually any additional sanctions against Russia would entail an economic cost for Europe, which is why the European Union is dithering. As the economic conflict with Russia enters a hazardous new phase, can Europe's leaders hold their nerve?

Why paying in roubles for Russian gas and oil might matter
Alexander Mihailov (VoxEU) Mar 29, 2022
In response to sanctions imposed on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, President Putin recently announced that 'unfriendly' countries would have to pay for Russian gas (and perhaps oil in the future) in roubles. This column discusses the possible reasons for the announcement and the potential economic and financial implications if Putin were to follow through on it.

The impact of geopolitical conflicts on trade, growth, and innovation
Eddy Bekkers and Carlos Góes (VoxEU) Mar 29, 2022
The war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia have intensified the debate on the economic repercussions of a shift in global trade policy focus from mutual economic benefits of open trade policies to geopolitical considerations limiting interdependence. This column finds that a potential decoupling of the global trading system into two blocs – a US-centric and a China-centric bloc – would reduce global welfare in 2040 compared to a baseline by about 5%. Losses would be largest (more than 10%) in low-income regions that benefit most from positive technology spillovers from trade.

International Economic Outlook: March 2022
Nick Bennenbroek, Brendan McKenna, and Jessica Guo (WF Econ Group) Mar 29, 2022
Inflation remains a key focus of global financial markets as price pressures persist, and upside surprises remain prevalent. In response to elevated CPI readings, central banks have continued with their hawkish approach. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Canada all delivered rate hikes in the past month, while the European Central Bank signaled an accelerated pace of tapering its bond purchases. Given aggressive Fed tightening in particular, our outlook remains for a stronger U.S. dollar against most foreign currencies over the medium term. While Latin American currencies have performed solidly in early 2022, we still expect the region's currencies to soften over time, in part due to Fed tightening and in part as local markets react to a less favorable political environment. Russia-Ukraine developments have intensified from a month ago, and in addition to central bank activity, are key drivers of financial markets. In that sense, eastern European currencies have underperformed given regional proximity, while Latin American currencies have strengthened significantly on the back of higher commodity prices. Sanctions and voluntary restrictions against operating in Russia and with Russian entities should result in a sharp deterioration to Russia's economy, and possibly in Russia defaulting on its sovereign debt obligations.

The EU and UK's trade policies are both weakened by Brexit
Alan Beattie (FT) Mar 30, 2022
Britain struggles to point to any future benefits from leaving the bloc, while Brussels is drifting towards protectionism.

This crisis could be the making of Europe's carbon market
Helen Thomas (FT) Mar 30, 2022
Volatility triggered by war in Ukraine brings a chance to force corporate investment in decarbonisation.

What you thought you knew about interest rates and the market is wrong
Andrew Smithers (FT) Mar 30, 2022
Conventional macroeconomic assumptions do not tally with data about returns on different kinds of capital.

War in Ukraine: what explains the calm in global stock markets?
Robin Wigglesworth, Philip Stafford, and Tommy Stubbington (FT) Mar 30, 2022
Amid surprise that the financial system has not been dealt a more severe blow there are warnings of systemic risks still to be uncovered.

Why the SEC is right to make climate risk disclosure mandatory
Anne Simpson (FT) Mar 30, 2022
Regulator has provided blast of fresh air that could revitalise capital allocation.

Ditch the Global Minimum Tax Grab
Bruce Gilley (WSJ) Mar 30, 2022
It would mean less revenue for the U.S. Treasury and will never get past a Republican Congress.

Capital to flow in or out of China?
William Pesek (AT) Mar 30, 2022
China confounded naysayers in 2021, who warned President Xi Jinping's clampdowns on Big Tech and property developers would cause giant waves of capital to flee Asia's biggest economy. Instead, Xi's nation pulled in a record-high US$334 billion in net foreign direct investment (FDI). But Covid outbreaks and Beijing's alliance with Moscow are now spooking foreign investors.

Under unprecedented sanctions, how is the Russian economy faring?
Economist Mar 30, 2022
Better than you might think.

Markets overreacting to fears of Japanese yen intervention
Mark Sobel (OMFIF) Mar 30, 2022
The Japanese yen's recent depreciation against the dollar has elicited much market hand-wringing about how officialdom might respond and whether authorities could intervene to staunch the decline. But the foreign exchange market's fretting seems overdone. There are good fundamental reasons for the yen's depreciation. Trading in yen is orderly. There should be little for the FX market to get terribly excited about.

Europe's Job Retention Schemes Contained Unemployment, But Challenges Remain
IMF Mar 30, 2022
COVID-19 caused the most severe shock to the European economy for at least 75 years, with significant disruptions to the labor market. Nonetheless, a powerful policy response cushioned the pandemic's impact and prevented unemployment from spiking as sharply as was initially feared. With the region now facing a second shock from spillovers caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, authorities should proceed cautiously as they continue to scale back policy responses, so as not to undo their success in protecting jobs from the pandemic.

Why the IMF is Updating its View on Capital Flows
Tobias Adrian, Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, and Rhoda Weeks-Brown (IMF) Mar 30, 2022
In some circumstances, countries should have the option of pre-emptively curbing debt inflows to safeguard macroeconomic and financial stability.

Without Adaptation, Middle East and Central Asia Face Crippling Climate Losses
Jihad Azour and Christoph Duenwald (IMF) Mar 30, 2022
International cooperation is essential to manage the costs and maximize the benefits of adaptation, particularly for the most vulnerable countries.

The ECB and the BOE Issue a Joint Warning on Excessive Leverage
Andrea Enria and Sam Woods (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 30, 2022
The two central banks flag prime brokerage and leveraged lending as potential risks to the global economy.

Banks Aren't Sweating a Yield Curve Inversion Yet
Paul J. Davies and Jonathan Levin (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 30, 2022
Despite the bond market's warning signal, higher interest rates and a return to growth in lending are expected to bolster profits this year and next.

Biden's Billionaire Tax Would Punish Long-Term Investors
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 30, 2022
The president's proposal is not only plagued by practical problems, but also undermines one of the core goals of a progressive tax system.

Is the New Stagflation Policy-Proof?
Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2022
Like the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine has contributed to the stagflationary pressures in the United States and other advanced economies. While fiscal and monetary authorities currently have the situation under control, they are likely to run up against the limits of their policy options as conditions change.

How to solve Europe's Russian gas conundrum with a tariff
Daniel Gros (VoxEU) Mar 30, 2022
In the search for additional sanctions against Russia, one idea which is often discussed is for the EU, or individual Member States, to ban imports of Russian gas. The economic consequences of such a step would be very severe in the short run. This column makes the case for an alternative measure that would minimise economic disruptions and which would have a strong impact on the revenues flowing to Russia – a special import tariff on Russian gas.

Today's inflation and the Great Inflation of the 1970s
Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge (VoxEU) Mar 30, 2022
The recent commodity price surge, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has exacerbated already elevated inflationary pressures. A new CEPR Policy Insight argues that over the medium term, as recent shocks unwind, inflation is expected to ease back towards targets, but the Great Inflation of the 1970s is a reminder of the material risks to this outlook. As inflation remains elevated, the risk is growing that, to bring inflation back to target, advanced economy central banks will once again need to undertake a much more forceful policy response than currently anticipated.

Industrialisation of AI offers great promise and some peril
John Thornhill (FT) Mar 31, 2022
Private companies, not universities, are pioneering artificial intelligence research and reaping almost all the gains.

Supply chain crises force corporate America into a 'what if' mindset
Gillian Tett (FT) Mar 31, 2022
Boards are now envisaging once-unimaginable tail risks and repositioning.

Extremes highlight the risks of emerging market investments
Simon Edelsten (FT) Mar 31, 2022
Where to put your money, even with Russia at war and uncertainties in China.

Rishi Sunak's decisions have raised the spectre of an 'inflation tax'
Chris Giles (FT) Mar 31, 2022
The effects of rising prices will make the chancellor's claims to be cutting levies ring hollow.

This Is What Happens When Globalization Breaks Down
Peter S. Goodman (NYT) Mar 31, 2022
The story of one shipping container from a factory in China to a warehouse in the United States traces the arc of a global supply chain consumed by trouble.

Will Putin Kill the Global Economy?
Paul Krugman (NYT) Mar 31, 2022
There's a whiff of 1914 in the air.

Russia's attack on the dollar more insurgency than war
Faisal Al Yafai (AT) Mar 31, 2022
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that "unfriendly" countries – by which he really meant European countries – would need to start paying for their natural gas in rubles, rather than US dollars or euros. He gave the Russian central bank until the end of March to figure out how that would happen. If it goes ahead, it will be no idle threat.

China courts Islamic world in 'oil-for-yuan' push
FM Shakil (AT) Mar 31, 2022
China is bidding to deepen its ties with the Islamic world as part of an apparent new strategy to develop "oil-for-yuan" partnerships and push forward Chinese President Xi Jinping's signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure-building scheme. Beijing's overtures to the Muslim world notably coincide with America's exit from the region.

Tight Jobs Market Is a Boon for Workers But Could Add To Inflation Risks
Romain Duval, Myrto Oikonomou and Marina M. Tavares (IMF) Mar 31, 2022
Labor shortages have pushed up wage growth, benefitting low-wage workers but adding to inflation risks. Bringing more workers back into the labor force would ease these pressures while making the recovery more inclusive.

Commodities Do Not Cause Inflation. Money Printing Does.
Daniel Lacalle (Mises Wire) Mar 31, 2022
Some blame high prices, wages, the Ukraine war, or the weak recovery. The fact is currency destruction is at the heart of generalized price rises everywhere.

US re-engagement: Is a framework that builds out China realistic?
Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) Mar 31, 2022
When he withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, former president Donald Trump tore up the playbook for American economic engagement with Asia. In February 2022, his successor, Joe Biden, offered his own strategy for the region—one that blends broadly defined security and commercial interests while sharing Trump's refusal to engage in new comprehensive trade agreements.

Internet poverty: The next frontier in development
Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, Katharina Fenz, Marianne Nari Fisher, and Homi Kharas (Brookings) Mar 31, 2022
Expanding the definition of extreme poverty.

Zero Is a Good Destination for ECB Interest Rates
Mark Gilbert and Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 31, 2022
The balance between soaring inflation and slowing growth should lead to a monetary-policy compromise.

OPEC Wants Russia as an Oil Ally, in Peace and in War
Javier Blas (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 31, 2022
For the oil cartel, wars are business as usual. Whatever happens in Ukraine, Saudi Arabia wants Russia alongside it.

America's Oil Reserve Weapon Risks Misfiring
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 31, 2022
Washington isn't the only player in this drama. Watch how OPEC+ nations react to the move.

Ukraine War Hastens Investor Migration to Private Markets
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 31, 2022
Russia's invasion has amplified six significant evolutions in finance and the global economy.

India Shouldn't Fall for Putin's Rupees-for-Rubles Deal
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 31, 2022
It may come with a $35 discount for oil but a separate financial email channel with Russia will annoy the West.

It Would Be Folly for China to Bust Russia Sanctions
Tim Culpan (Bloomberg Opinion) Mar 31, 2022
Tempting as it may be to turn a quick profit and help a friend in need, Beijing would be smart enough not to take the risk.

Russia Is Finished as a Major Energy Power
Simon Johnson and Oleg Ustenko (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2022
In the wake of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, no European in their right mind wants Russia to have the free cash flow that its hydrocarbon exports currently provide. And the European Union, the United States, and their allies are already on track to remove this major source of the Kremlin's geopolitical leverage.

Finding Putin's Money
Daniel J. Arbess (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2022
None of the Russian "oligarchs" recently sanctioned by the West appears to have influence, much less control, over President Vladimir Putin. Western leaders might gain more by making them – and Anatoly Chubais, their former patron – comfortable enough to share whatever they may know about Putin's wealth.

Putin's War Will Destroy Russia
Nina L. Khrushcheva (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2022
By attacking another European country, Putin crossed a line that was drawn after World War II – and changed the world. But he also changed Russia, from a functioning autocracy to a Stalinesque dictatorship, a country characterized by violent repression, inscrutable arbitrariness, and a massive brain drain.

The G20 Must Speak Truth to Putin
Maurice Obstfeld (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2022
At their upcoming meeting, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will need to address the global spike in food prices, which in turn will require an acknowledgment of the facts about Russia's war in Ukraine. A communiqué that papers over these realities would cast additional doubt on the group's future.

How to Eat Russia's Oil Lunch
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2022
If Russia is set to remain aggressive and dangerous, the best strategy to counter it should aim to reduce its share of the global energy market as much as possible. Assembling a coalition to do this is made easier by the shared incentive to curtail the country's oil influence.

Investing for Impact and Profit
Bertrand Badré and Benoit Mercereau (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2022
Although environmental, social, and governance investing has become increasingly fashionable, it has not lived up to its promise. Activists and advocates have tried to change the basic logic of financial investment and corporate governance when they should be focusing on ways to harness it.

Russia's war against Ukraine might persistently shift global supply chains
Tobias Korn and Henry Stemmler (VoxEU) Mar 31, 2022
The war Russia is waging against Ukraine has already halted most of Ukraine's production capabilities. Similarly, the sanctions raised against Russia by the international community end decades of economic cooperation across several economic sectors. This column draws on empirical evidence from over two decades of civil wars across the world to inform the debate on how international supply chains will adjust to the economic disruptions brought by violence, and how likely it is that the international economy will ever return to the pre-war situation.

The New Geopolitics of the Taliban's Opium Economy
Maysam Chehreganlou Behravesh (FP) Mar 31, 2022
Afghanistan's narcotics trade is booming under fresh leadership.